Using Scalar Models for Precautionary Assessments of Threatened Species

Abstract:  Scalar population models, commonly referred to as count-based models, are based on time-series data of population sizes and may be useful for screening-level ecological risk assessments when data for more complex models are not available. Appropriate use of such models for management purposes, however, requires understanding inherent biases that may exist in these models. Through a series of simulations, which compared predictions of risk of decline of scalar and matrix-based models, we examined whether discrepancies may arise from different dynamics displayed due to age structure and generation time. We also examined scalar and matrix-based population models of 18 real populations for potential patterns of bias in population viability estimates. In the simulation study, precautionary bias (i.e., overestimating risks of decline) of scalar models increased as a function of generation time. Models of real populations showed poor fit between scalar and matrix-based models, with scalar models predicting significantly higher risks of decline on average. The strength of this bias was not correlated with generation time, suggesting that additional sources of bias may be masking this relationship. Scalar models can be useful for screening-level assessments, which should in general be precautionary, but the potential shortfalls of these models should be considered before using them as a basis for management decisions.     

Life history benefits of residency in a partially migrating pond-breeding amphibian

Species with partial migration, where a portion of a population migrates and the other remains residential, provide the opportunity to evaluate conditions for migration and test mechanisms influencing migratory decisions. We conducted a five-year study of two populations of red-spotted newts (Notophthalmus viridescens), composed of individuals that either remain as residents in the breeding pond over the winter or migrate to the terrestrial habitat. We used multistate mark-recapture methods to (1) test for differences in survival probability between migrants and residents, (2) determine if migrants breed every year or skip opportunities for reproduction, and (3) estimate the frequency of individuals switching migratory tactic. We used estimates of life history parameters from the natural populations in combination with previous experimental work to evaluate processes maintaining partial migration at the population level and to assess mechanisms influencing the decision to migrate. Based on capture-recapture information on over 3000 individuals, we found that newts can switch migratory tactics over their lifetime. We conclude that migrants and residents coexist through conditional asymmetries, with residents having higher fitness and inferior individuals adopting the migrant tactic. We found that newts are more likely to switch from residency to migrating than the reverse and males were more likely to remain as residents. Migration differences between the sexes are likely driven by reproduction benefits of residency for males and high energetic costs of breeding resulting in lower breeding frequencies for females. Environmental conditions also influence partial migration within a population; we found support for density-dependent processes in the pond strongly influencing the probability of migrating. Our work illustrates how migration can be influenced by a complex range of individual and environmental factors and enhances our understanding of the conditions necessary for the evolution and maintenance of partial migration within populations.     

Unsustainable urban development for Zonguldak metropolitan area (NW Turkey)

Since Turkey is located on a region that is prone to the risks of natural disasters like earthquake, flooding, and avalanche; a majority of the residential areas are facing these risks at various levels. Before determination of these risks, taking action in order to decrease the vulnerability levels of the residential areas will help keep the damage at the minimum level in case of a disaster. Urban planning decisions which are made in accordance with vulnerability studies aiming to determine natural disaster risks will not only help prevent loss of life but also help decrease negative social and economic effects of disasters. The Zonguldak city has been chosen as a case study area since Zonguldak metropolitan area has endured almost all kinds of threats that a city can face. In this study disaster-producing factors in the area are primarily considered which can be named as topography, destruction of forest lands, geological and karstic structure, mining activities, and misuse of the land, and later risk assessment is conducted with geographic information system (GIS). It has been assessed that more than half of the buildings within the study area were constructed in areas not suitable for housing. It is concluded that there is a need for urgent urban development plan for the city.     

Reconstructibility of Density Dependence and the Conservative Assessment of Extinction Risks

Abstract: The probability of extinction is sensitive to the presence and character of density dependence controlling the dynamics of a population. This means that our capacity to estimate a population's risks of extinction under varying environmental conditions or competing management regimes is linked to our ability to reconstruct from data the density-dependence relationships governing the natural dynamics, especially when data do not reveal a trend of population growth or decline. In an example using Gadus morhua , we show that even 10- or 20-year data sets are too short to make precise estimates of these risks. We also observe, however, that under moderate or weak density dependence, the computed risks are lower than when density dependence is not included in the model. We propose, therefore, that when available data sets are insufficient for reconstructing reliable measurements of density dependence, conservative estimates of extinction probabilities can be made from models that simply omit density dependence.     

Minimise long-term loss or maximise short-term gain?: Optimal translocation strategies for threatened species

Translocation is a useful management option for conservation of threatened animal species. It can be used to increase the range of a species, augment the numbers in a critical population, or establish new populations and hence spread the risk of extinction through local catastrophes. As it is an important and expensive conservation tool, translocation management decisions must be carefully considered, with the objective of the translocation project in mind. By analysing the translocation problem within a decision-theory framework, we find optimal management decisions that are rational and transparent. We illustrate our approach using a case study of the bridled nailtail wallaby (Onychogalea fraenata). Our particular translocation question is: if we have a set number of wallabies to translocate in each time period and two translocation sites, how many wallabies should we put at each site given the state of each population to maximise the benefit to the species? We model the translocated populations with first-order Markov chain stochastic population models, and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal management decisions. We look at two sites with different growth rates – one increasing and one decreasing – and compare the optimal strategies for two different objective functions. The first is a long-term persistence objective function, which maximises the persistence of translocated populations a large number of time steps after the end of the translocation program. The second maximises total population size at the end of the translocation program. Although these objective functions are similar, they generate surprisingly different optimal translocation strategies. When maximising the long-term persistence of the translocated populations, translocation decisions are not important as long as an increasing population is established. This indicates that site quality – rather than the number and timing of translocations – primarily determines the long-term persistence of populations. When maximising total population size, the optimal strategy is to add to the increasing population unless it is above a size where it is likely to reach its carrying capacity over the planning timeframe. As translocation decisions are important in fulfilling the objective, this objective function is more useful in creating practical advice for translocation managers. The discrepancy between the optimal strategies given by the two objectives demonstrates the importance of careful consideration when specifying the goals of a project. This observation applies not only to translocation programs, but any project where clear decision-making is needed.     

Incorporating natural enemies in an economic threshold for dynamically optimal pest management

The control of pests by their natural enemies represents an important regulating ecosystem service that helps maintain the stability of crop ecosystems. These services, however, are often ignored in pest management decision making. In addition, the use of broad-spectrum insecticides can damage the populations of natural enemies, reducing the cost-effectiveness of insecticide investment if unaccounted for in treatment decisions.The existing literature on modeling of biological control of insect pests has generally focused on simulations of the population dynamics of pest and natural enemy species and the processes underlying pest control. But agriculture is a managed ecosystem where predator–prey relationships are heavily influenced by human managers. In modeling managerial choices, this study develops an intra-seasonal dynamic bioeconomic optimization model for insecticide-based pest management that explicitly takes into account both the biological control effect of natural enemies on pest density and the nontarget mortality effect of insecticides on the level of natural pest control supplied. The model captures predator–prey interactions, linking them to crop growth and yield damage functions, which in turn are evaluated in a dynamic optimization framework. We introduce a new decision rule for judicious insecticide decisions using a natural enemy-adjusted economic threshold. This threshold represents the pest population density at which insecticide control becomes optimal in spite of the opportunity cost of injury to natural enemies of the target pest. Using field data from Michigan, the model is applied to the case of soybean aphid (Aphis glycines, Matsumura), a recent invasive pest of soybean (Glycine max), whose management is of both economic and environmental importance to the North Central region of the United States. As illustrated by the numerical examples, such natural enemy-adjusted threshold is likely to lead to fewer recommendations for insecticide use than naïve models that ignore natural enemies, resulting in less insecticide use, while maintaining profitability for farmers that rely on chemical pest control methods.The bioeconomic model developed in this study can be used to conduct a wide variety of analyses such as identifying dynamically optimal spray strategies and estimating the implied economic value of natural control services. Furthermore, with the incorporation of inter-year carry-over factors, such as overwintering of pests and natural enemies, the current model can contribute to building multi-year models for studying long-term pest management.     

Making conservation decisions under uncertainty for the persistence of multiple species.

Population models for multiple species provide one of the few means of assessing the impact of alternative management options on the persistence of biodiversity, but they are inevitably uncertain. Is it possible to use population models in multiple-species conservation planning given the associated uncertainties? We use information-gap decision theory to explore the impact of parameter uncertainty on the conservation decision when planning for the persistence of multiple species. An information-gap approach seeks robust outcomes that are most immune from error. We assess the impact of uncertainty in key model parameters for three species, whose extinction risks under four alternative management scenarios are estimated using a metapopulation model. Three methods are described for making conservation decisions across the species, taking into account uncertainty. We find that decisions based on single species are relatively robust to uncertainty in parameters, although the estimates of extinction risk increase rapidly with uncertainty. When identifying the best conservation decision for the persistence of all species, the methods that rely on the rankings of the management options by each species result in decisions that are similarly robust to uncertainty. Methods that depend on absolute values of extinction risk are sensitive to uncertainty, as small changes in extinction risk can alter the ranking of the alternative scenarios. We discover that it is possible to make robust conservation decisions even when the uncertainties of the multiple-species problem appear overwhelming. However, the decision most robust to uncertainty is likely to differ from the best decision when uncertainty is ignored, illustrating the importance of incorporating uncertainty into the decision-making process.     

Population interconnectivity and implications for recovery of a species of concern, the Pacific hake of Georgia Basin

To aid the recovery of a species, understanding the extent to which populations are connected is useful for targeting conservation efforts. Pacific hake within waters of Puget Sound, Washington State, USA, and Georgia Strait, British Columbia, Canada are listed as a species of concern under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to dramatic declines in the Puget Sound population. To assess the role of dispersal in the recovery of Pacific hake, we sought to quantify patterns of connectivity between populations in Puget Sound and Georgia Strait. Using natural chemical markers from otoliths of fish sampled from these two populations, we linked natal signatures of fish to signatures of individuals from known spawning grounds. Results indicated that 82 % of individuals collected from Puget Sound (n = 78) were estimated to have originated there, while 40 and 92 % of the individuals collected from two cohorts within Georgia Strait (n = 9 and 24, respectively) had originated from Puget Sound. A trend of “population abandonment” of fish from Puget Sound suggests that recovery of this Pacific hake population will depend on local management practices.     

Robust population management under uncertainty for structured population models.

Structured population models are increasingly used in decision making, but typically have many entries that are unknown or highly uncertain. We present an approach for the systematic analysis of the effect of uncertainties on long-term population growth or decay. Many decisions for threatened and endangered species are made with poor or no information. We can still make decisions under these circumstances in a manner that is highly defensible, even without making assumptions about the distribution of uncertainty, or limiting ourselves to discussions of single, infinitesimally small changes in the parameters. Suppose that the model (determined by the data) for the population in question predicts long-term growth. Our goal is to determine how uncertain the data can be before the model loses this property. Some uncertainties will maintain long-term growth, and some will lead to long-term decay. The uncertainties are typically structured, and can be described by several parameters. We show how to determine which parameters maintain long-term growth. We illustrate the advantages of the method by applying it to a Peregrine Falcon population. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently decided to allow minimal harvesting of Peregrine Falcons after their recent removal from the Endangered Species List. Based on published demographic rates, we find that an asymptotic growth rate lambda > 1 is guaranteed with 5% harvest rate up to 3% error in adult survival if no two-year-olds breed, and up to 11% error if all two-year-olds breed. If a population growth rate of 3% or greater is desired, the acceptable error in adult survival decreases to between 1% and 6% depending of the proportion of two-year-olds that breed. These results clearly show the interactions between uncertainties in different parameters, and suggest that a harvest decision at this stage may be premature without solid data on adult survival and the frequency of breeding by young adults.     

Understanding the Lessons and Limitations of Conservation and Development

Abstract: The lack of concrete instances in which conservation and development have been successfully merged has strengthened arguments for strict exclusionist conservation policies. Research has focused more on social cooperation and conflict of different management regimes and less on how these factors actually affect the natural environments they seek to conserve. Consequently, it is still unknown which strategies yield better conservation outcomes? We conducted a meta‐analysis of 116 published case studies on common resource management regimes from Africa, south and central America, and southern and Southeast Asia. Using ranked sociodemographic, political, and ecological data, we analyzed the effect of land tenure, population size, social heterogeneity, as well as internally devised resource‐management rules and regulations (institutions) on conservation outcome. Although land tenure, population size, and social heterogeneity did not significantly affect conservation outcome, institutions were positively associated with better conservation outcomes. There was also a significant interaction effect between population size and institutions, which implies complex relationships between population size and conservation outcome. Our results suggest that communities managing a common resource can play a significant role in conservation and that institutions lead to management regimes with lower environmental impacts.     

Invasion versus Isolation: Trade-Offs in Managing Native Salmonids with Barriers to Upstream Movement

Abstract: Conservation biologists often face the trade‐off that increasing connectivity in fragmented landscapes to reduce extinction risk of native species can foster invasion by non‐native species that enter via the corridors created, which can then increase extinction risk. This dilemma is acute for stream fishes, especially native salmonids, because their populations are frequently relegated to fragments of headwater habitat threatened by invasion from downstream by 3 cosmopolitan non‐native salmonids. Managers often block these upstream invasions with movement barriers, but isolation of native salmonids in small headwater streams can increase the threat of local extinction. We propose a conceptual framework to address this worldwide problem that focuses on 4 main questions. First, are populations of conservation value present (considering evolutionary legacies, ecological functions, and socioeconomic benefits as distinct values)? Second, are populations vulnerable to invasion and displacement by non‐native salmonids? Third, would these populations be threatened with local extinction if isolated with barriers? And, fourth, how should management be prioritized among multiple populations? We also developed a conceptual model of the joint trade‐off of invasion and isolation threats that considers the opportunities for managers to make strategic decisions. We illustrated use of this framework in an analysis of the invasion‐isolation trade‐off for native cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii) in 2 contrasting basins in western North America where invasion and isolation are either present and strong or farther away and apparently weak. These cases demonstrate that decisions to install or remove barriers to conserve native salmonids are often complex and depend on conservation values, environmental context (which influences the threat of invasion and isolation), and additional socioeconomic factors. Explicit analysis with tools such as those we propose can help managers make sound decisions in such complex circumstances.     

A comparative approach to assess drivers of success in mammalian conservation recovery programs

The outcomes of species recovery programs have been mixed; high‐profile population recoveries contrast with species‐level extinctions. Each conservation intervention has its own challenges, but to inform more effective management it is imperative to assess whether correlates of wider recovery program success or failure can be identified. To contribute to evidence‐based improvement of future conservation strategies, we conducted a global quantitative analysis of 48 mammalian recovery programs. We reviewed available scientific literature and conducted semistructured interviews with conservation professionals involved in different recovery programs to investigate ecological, management, and political factors associated with population recoveries or declines. Identifying and removing threats was significantly associated with increasing population trend and decreasing conservation dependence, emphasizing that populations are likely to continue to be compromised in the absence of effective threat mitigation and supporting the need for threat monitoring and adaptive management in response to new and potential threats. Lack of habitat and small population size were cited as limiting factors in 56% and 42% of recovery programs, respectively, and both were statistically associated with increased longer term dependence on conservation intervention, demonstrating the importance of increasing population numbers quickly and restoring and protecting habitat. Poor stakeholder coordination and management were also regularly cited by respondents as key weaknesses in recovery programs, indicating the importance of effective leadership and shared goals and management plans. Project outcomes were not influenced by biological or ecological variables such as body mass or habitat, which suggests that these insights into correlates of conservation success and failure are likely to be generalizable across mammals.     

An Integrated Approach to the Ecology and Management of Plant Invasions

Plant invasions are a serious threat to natural and managed ecosystems worldwide. The number of species involved and the extent of existing invasions renders the problem virtually intractable, and it is likely to worsen as more species are introduced to new habitats and more existing invaders move into a phase of rapid spread. We contend that current research and management approaches are inadequate to tackle the problem. The current focus is mostly on the characteristics and control of individual invading species. Much can be gained, however, by considering other important components of the invasion problem. Patterns of weed spread indicate that many species have a long lag phase following introduction before they spread explosively. Early detection and treatment of invasions before explosive spread occurs will prevent many future problems. Similarly, a focus on the invaded ecosystem and its management, rather than on the invader, is likely to be more effective. Identification of the causal factors enhancing ecosystem invasibility should lead to more-effective integrated control programs. An assessment of the value of particular sites and their degree of disturbance would allow the setting of management priorities for protection and control. Socioeconomic factors frequently play a larger part than ecological factors in plant invasions. Changes in human activities in terms of plant introduction and use, land use, and timing of control measures are all required before the plant invasion problem can be tackled adequately. Dealing with plant invasions is an urgent task that will require difficult decisions about land use and management priorities. These decisions have to be made if we want to conserve biodiversity worldwide.     

Adaptive resource management and the value of information

The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time.     

Household Location Choices: Implications for Biodiversity Conservation

Abstract: Successful conservation efforts require understanding human behaviors that directly affect biodiversity. Choice of household location represents an observable behavior that has direct effects on biodiversity conservation, but no one has examined the sociocultural predictors of this choice relative to its environmental impacts. We conducted a case study of the Teton Valley of Idaho and Wyoming (U.S.A.) that (1) explored relationships between sociodemographic variables, environmental attitudes, and the environmental impact of household location choices, (2) assessed the potential for small household sizes in natural areas to multiply the environmental impacts of household location decisions, and (3) evaluated how length of residency predicted the environmental attitudes of people living in natural areas. We collected sociodemographic data, spatial coordinates, and land‐cover information in a survey of 416 households drawn from a random sample of Teton Valley residents (95% compliance rate). Immigrants (respondents not born in the study area) with the lowest education levels and least environmentally oriented attitudes lived in previously established residential areas in disproportionately high numbers, and older and more educated immigrants with the most environmentally oriented attitudes lived in natural areas in disproportionately high numbers. Income was not a significant predictor of household location decisions. Those living in natural areas had more environmental impact per person because of the location and because small households (<3 people/household) were 4 times as likely in natural areas as large households. Longer residency in natural areas predicted less environmentally oriented attitudes, suggesting that living in natural areas does not foster more concern for nature. Because populaces are rapidly aging, growing more educated, and potentially growing more environmentally oriented, these patterns are troubling for biodiversity conservation. Our results demonstrate a need for environmentalists to make household location decisions that reflect their environmental attitudes and future research to address how interactions between education level, environmental attitudes, population aging, and household location choices influence biodiversity conservation.     

The triple helix of Plantago lanceolata: genetics and the environment interact to determine population dynamics

The theory of evolution via natural selection predicts that the genetic composition of wild populations changes over time in response to the environment. Different genotypes should exhibit different demographic patterns, but genetic variation in demography is often impossible to separate from environmental variation. Here, we asked if genetic variation is important in determining demographic patterns. We answer this question using a long-term field experiment combined with general linear modeling of deterministic population growth rates (lambda), deterministic life table response experiment (LTRE) analysis, and stochastic simulation of demography by paternal lineage in a short-lived perennial plant, Plantago lanceolata, in which we replicated genotypes across four cohorts using a standard breeding design. General linear modeling showed that growth rate varied significantly with year, spatial block, and sire. In LTRE analysis of all cohorts, the strongest influences on growth rate were from year x spatial block, and cohort x year x spatial block interactions. In analysis of genetics vs. temporal environmental variation, the strongest impacts on growth rate were from year and year x sire. Finally, stochastic simulation suggested different genetic composition among cohorts after 100 years, and different population growth rates when genetic differences were accounted for than when they were not. We argue that genetic variation, genotype x environment interactions, natural selection, and cohort effects should be better integrated into population ecological studies, as these processes should result in deviations from projected deterministic and stochastic population parameters.     

Gap-Crossing Decisions by the Red Squirrel, a Forest-Dependent Small Mammal

Abstract:  Forest-associated species in fragmented landscapes must traverse potentially inhospitable gaps to move between habitat patches. Although conservation biologists advocate connecting patches with corridors or improving the matrix to make it suitable for movement, little is known about the factors influencing gap-crossing decisions for most species. We investigated gap crossing by the red squirrel ( Tamiasciurus hudsonicus ) in logged landscapes in southeastern Alaska, where the species avoids microhabitats associated with gaps created by clearcutting. We released individuals across clearcuts and determined the routes they took home with tracking spools and radio telemetry. Of 36 adult red squirrels translocated across six clearcuts, 14 crossed clearcuts to reach home. Squirrels were more likely to cross clearcuts if the detour efficiency (distance to home crossing gap divided by distance of forested detour) was low, indicating an ability to compare distances along alternate routes and travel costs or risks in different habitats. No other landscape metrics, such as gap size or crossing distance, predicted crossing behavior. Red squirrels of low body mass were more likely to cross clearcuts, where the probability of encountering conspecifics is low. Distance predicted route choice for squirrels detouring around clearcuts. Indirect evidence suggests that perceived predation risk, energetic costs, or both are higher in clearcuts. Detour efficiency reportedly influences the gap-crossing decisions of some forest-associated birds, but this is the first demonstration of its role in gap-crossing decisions by a mammal.     

Calculating Biologically Accurate Mitigation Credits: Insights from the California Tiger Salamander

Abstract:  Current conservation mitigation plans often fail to ensure full in-kind habitat replacement for endangered species, which suggests the need for improved methods for calculating mitigation credits. A simple, yet biologically meaningful method for calculating mitigation credits would be to let the number of mitigation credits assigned to a parcel of land scale with the reproductive value of the individuals occupying that parcel. This can be accomplished by dividing the population into 2 or more subdivisions with different reproductive values, calculating the densities of these subdivisions as a function of one or more habitat parameters, and then forming a weighted sum of these densities such that each density distribution is weighted by the reproductive value of its respective subdivision of the population. This weighted sum is the density distribution of reproductive value, and by integrating it over a particular parcel, one can determine the mitigation value of that parcel. We carried out this procedure for a population of California tiger salamanders ( Ambystoma californiense ), with distance from breeding site as our habitat parameter and the 3 visually identifiable age classes (adults, juveniles, and metamorphs) as our population subdivisions. This led to a density distribution of reproductive value that decreased exponentially with increasing distance from a breeding site. Mitigation strategies derived from this function will be more likely to ensure the persistence of California tiger salamander populations than current approaches, which assign all land within 1.6 km of a breeding site the same mitigation value. Use of the density distribution of reproductive value as a basis for mitigation plans is a procedure that can be applied to all endangered species, and it should improve the quality of mitigation decisions.     

Some specialized risk assessment methodologies for vertebrate populations

We present three empirical methods for risk assessment in field studies of free-ranging vertebrates. First, we advocate statistical inference concerning population recruitment or mortality in response to ecological hazards. Second, if inferences about both recruitment and mortality are available, one can use a Leslie- Lefkovitch matrix to estimate the finite rate of population change () as a function of ecological hazards. Third, designed experiments can be conducted on samples of marked animals in natural environments to assess impacts and risks. These methods rely on either sophisticated capture-recapture or radio-tracking models, and on well-developed analysis theory. The use of uniquely marked animals is somewhat analogous to the use of tracers in other areas of risk assessment. We present examples of each approach and discuss some limitations.     

The Influence of Model Structure on Conclusions about the Viability and Harvesting of Serengeti Wildebeest

We investigate how the viability and harvestability predicted by population models are affected by details of model construction. Based on this analysis we discuss some of the pitfalls associated with the use of classical statistical techniques for resolving the uncertainties associated with modeling population dynamics. The management of the Serengeti wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) is used as a case study. We fitted a collection of age-structured and unstructured models to a common set of available data and compared model predictions in terms of wildebeest viability and harvest. Models that depicted demographic processes in strikingly different ways fitted the data equally well. However, upon further analysis it became clear that models that fit the data equally well could nonetheless have very different management implications. In general, model structure had a much larger effect on viability analysis (e.g., time to collapse) than on optimal harvest analysis (e.g., harvest rate that maximizes harvest). Some modeling decisions, such as including age-dependent fertility rates, did not affect management predictions, but others had a strong effect (e.g., choice of model structure). Because several suitable models of comparable complexity fitted the data equally well, traditional model selection methods based on the parsimony principle were not practical for judging the value of alternative models. Our results stress the need to implement analytical frameworks for population management that explicitly consider the uncertainty about the behavior of natural systems.