System performance assessment of final repository for radioactive wastes using first-order reliability method

When a final option for radioactive waste is determined, it is necessary to demonstrate compliance of disposal system chosen with relevant regulations. Considering the large number of physical and chemical factors involved, the complexity of their interrelationships, and long time periods, a system approach is required. A stochastic analysis is also needed to ensure that these regulatory criteria can be met with confidence. Among a variety of models developed to treat the effect of uncertainty on system performance, the first-order reliability method is suggested as an attractive tool to stochastic problems incorporating any amount of probabilistic information. Based on the first-order approximation, the method can give a probability of failure against a preselected target value, and information concerning the sensitivity of the outcome to variations in the input random variables and their statistical moments. In this paper, for reliable prediction of the performance of repository for radioactive wastes, first-order reliability method is applied in treating the parameter uncertainties of predictive models. First, a thickness of canister corrosion and breach time of canister is calculated using a uniform corrosion model, combined with the diffusional transport modeling of radionuclides in the backfill material. Second, a fractional release rate for each radionuclide is derived from the evaluation of the performance of a waste package which consists of canister and backfill material. Third, a cumulative release rate at the accessible environment is obtained by geosphere transport modeling with the source term given as a fractional release rate. The proposed first-order reliability method can be applicable to a full range of problems occurring in radioactive waste management and beyond.     

Stochastic analysis of radioactive waste package performance using first-order reliability method

In order to license an underground radioactive waste repository, it is important to demonstrate regulatory compliance with authoritative regulations. Also it is evidence from NRC's criteria for waste package performance that a stochastic analysis is necessary to provide that these criteria can be met with confidence. The first-order reliability method is an attractive tool to the stochastic analysis and particularly useful when statistical information is incomplete, as is common for problems occurring in the subsurface environment. The method is based on using the first-order Taylor series expansion at a specific linearization point to calculate a measure of reliability. Results from a first-order reliability analysis include an estimate of the probability of exceeding a specified performance criteria and measures of the sensitivity of the stochastic solution to the changes in input random variables and their statistical moments. The method of stochastic analysis is illustrated by analyzing the canister corrosion in a radioactive waste package.     

Stochastic modelling of landfill leachate and biogas production incorporating waste heterogeneity. Model formulation and uncertainty analysis

A mathematical model simulating the hydrological and biochemical processes occurring in landfilled waste is presented and demonstrated. The model combines biochemical and hydrological models into an integrated representation of the landfill environment. Waste decomposition is modelled using traditional biochemical waste decomposition pathways combined with a simplified methodology for representing the rate of decomposition. Water flow through the waste is represented using a statistical velocity model capable of representing the effects of waste heterogeneity on leachate flow through the waste. Given the limitations in data capture from landfill sites, significant emphasis is placed on improving parameter identification and reducing parameter requirements. A sensitivity analysis is performed, highlighting the model's response to changes in input variables. A model test run is also presented, demonstrating the model capabilities. A parameter perturbation model sensitivity analysis was also performed. This has been able to show that although the model is sensitive to certain key parameters, its overall intuitive response provides a good basis for making reasonable predictions of the future state of the landfill system. Finally, due to the high uncertainty associated with landfill data, a tool for handling input data uncertainty is incorporated in the model's structure. It is concluded that the model can be used as a reasonable tool for modelling landfill processes and that further work should be undertaken to assess the model's performance.     

Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems

Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties.     

Abstraction of mechanistic sorption model results for performance assessment calculations at Yucca Mountain,Nevada

Sorption onto minerals in the geologic setting may help to mitigate potential radionuclide transport from the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada. An approach is developed for including aspects of more mechanistic sorption models into current probabilistic performance assessment (PA) calculations. Data on water chemistry from the vicinity of YM are screened and used to calculate the ranges in parameters that could exert control on radionuclide sorption behavior. Using a diffuse-layer surface complexation model, sorption parameters for Np(V) and U(VI) are calculated based on the chemistry of each water sample. Model results suggest that lognormal probability distribution functions (PDFs) of sorption parameters are appropriate for most of the samples, but the calculated range is almost five orders of magnitude for Np(V) sorption and nine orders of magnitude for U(VI) sorption. Calculated sorption parameters may also vary at a single sample location by almost a factor of 10 over time periods of the order of days to years due to changes in chemistry, although sampling and analytical methodologies may introduce artifacts that add uncertainty to the evaluation of these fluctuations. Finally, correlation coefficients between the calculated Np(V) and U(VI) sorption parameters can be included as input into PA sampling routines, so that the value selected for one radionuclide sorption parameter is conditioned by its statistical relationship to the others. The approaches outlined here can be adapted readily to current PA efforts, using site-specific information to provide geochemical constraints on PDFs for radionuclide transport parameters.     

Sensitivity of protective barrier performance to changes in rainfall rate

Single- or multi-layered surface barriers are used for protecting the underlying hazardous or radioactive waste storage facility and for reducing the risk of dispersion of contaminants to the ground water. To assess the effect of variations in net rainfall rate (total rainfall minus evapotranspiration) on the hydraulic response of a multi-layered barrier, a series of flow simulations were performed. Water fluxes in different layers of the barrier were numerically calculated for three net rainfall rates, i.e. 0.0255, 0.0742, and 0.141 cm/day. These rates correspond to dry, average, and wet climatological conditions in Belgium. Results show that for dry conditions, almost 45% of the water infiltrating the top of the barrier is laterally evacuated. When the net rainfall rate increases from 0.0255 to 0.0742 cm/day, more water is being laterally diverted, and only 22% of the applied rainfall percolates through the barrier. If the rainfall rate is increased from 0.0255 to 0.141 cm/day, the percolation becomes 14% of the applied rainfall. This indicates that fluxes leaving the bottom of the repository increase only slightly, although the rainfall rate for wet conditions is approximately 5 times larger than for dry conditions. Under dry conditions a slightly negative pressure develops in the bottom of the low-permeability clay layer. However, this desaturation does not affect the integrity of the clay.     

A cost study for enhanced sludge washing of high-level radioactive waste at the U.S. Department of energy Hanford Site

Enhanced Sludge Washing (ESW) with caustic has the potential to significantly reduce the amount of sludge-based underground storage tank (UST) high-level radioactive waste at the Hanford Site. The alternative to ESW is a simple sludge wash, a process that does not take advantege of recent dissolution development efforts. During the past several years, studies have been conducted to determine the remediation cost savings derived from the development and deployment of ESW. The tank waste inventory and ESW process performance continues to be revised as waste characterization, and ESW development efforts advance. This study provides a new cost savings estimate based upon the most recent waste inventory and ESW process performance revisions, an estimate of the associated cost savings uncertainty, and an estimate of the rate of return (ROR) on the investment in technology development. The revised remediation cost savings estimate due to ESW of all UST waste at Hanford is $4.8 billion ± $0.7 billion within 95 percent confidence in 1998 dollars. The ROR on investment was estimated to range from 100 percent to 130 percent. A sensitivity analysis indicated that it would be difficult to imagine a remediation scenario for which ESW did not yield a significant remediation cost savings and ROR.     

An evaluation of landfill disposal of asbestos-containing waste and geothermal residues within a risk-assessment framework

 The public perception of risks related to waste disposal facilities appears to reflect general societal anxieties and fears, which may not have a reasonable basis. A three-tier risk assessment study was therefore conducted to evaluate the landfill disposal of asbestos-containing waste (ACW) and geothermal residues. From the tier-1 analysis, the dominant asbestiform phase was identified as chrysotile, that is tightly bound in the matrix of calcite, while arsenic, cadmium, chromium, and lead were identified as the chemicals of potential concern associated with geothermal residues. From the tier-2 analysis, none of the possible exposure pathways associated with the landfill disposal of ACW was found to be potentially significant. On the other hand, there were potentially significant pathways associated with landfill disposal of geothermal residues because of the considerable potential pollution impact of leachate on soil and groundwater quality. From the tier-3 analysis, the health risk associated with landfill disposal of geothermal residues was found to be time-dependent, since the contributions to risk from water-dependent and water-independent pathways occur at different times, as indicated by RESRAD–Chem simulations. Component pathway analyses were performed to identify critical exposure pathways. The results from model sensitivity analysis have identified the input parameters that have the most influence on the time of peak risk, and the cancer risk associated with water-dependent and water-independent pathways. Received: July 9, 2002 / Accepted: October 17, 2002     

Landfill reduction experience in The Netherlands

Modern waste legislation aims at resource efficiency and landfill reduction. This paper analyses more than 20 years of landfill reduction in the Netherlands. The combination of landfill regulations, landfill tax and landfill bans resulted in the desired landfill reduction, but also had negative effects. A fierce competition developed over the remaining waste to be landfilled. In 2013 the Dutch landfill industry generated €40 million of annual revenue, had €58 million annual costs and therefore incurred an annual loss of €18 million. It is not an attractive option to prematurely end business. There is a risk that Dutch landfill operators will not be able to fulfil the financial obligations for closure and aftercare. Contrary to the polluter pays principle the burden may end up with society. EU regulations prohibiting export of waste for disposal are in place. Strong differentials in landfill tax rate between nations have nevertheless resulted in transboundary shipment of waste and in non-compliance with the self-sufficiency and proximity principles. During the transformation from a disposal society to a recycling society, it is important to carefully plan required capacity and to guide the reorganisation of the landfill sector. At some point, it is no longer profitable to provide landfill services. It may be necessary for public organisations or the state to take responsibility for the continued operation of a ‘safety net’ in waste management. Regulations have created a financial incentive to pass on the burden of monitoring and controlling the impact of waste to future generations. To prevent this, it is necessary to revise regulations on aftercare and create incentives to actively stabilise landfills.     

Applications of risk assessment techniques to hazardous waste management

Applications of risk assessment techniques to hazardous waste management are briefly discussed in terms of selecting appropriate waste management technologies, assessing operating sites, setting priorities for clean up of problem sites, determining the appropriate level of clean up and planning new facilities. A specific case history involving risk assessment for the siting of a waste management facility in the Province of Ontario, Canada is described in more detail. Risk estimates are provided for exposure via inhalation and ingestion of potentially contaminated local water, crops, meat and milk. The predicted risk are compared to risks of death from selected voluntary and involuntary exposures.     

Review of LCA studies of solid waste management systems – Part II: Methodological guidance for a better practice

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is increasingly used in waste management to identify strategies that prevent or minimise negative impacts on ecosystems, human health or natural resources. However, the quality of the provided support to decision- and policy-makers is strongly dependent on a proper conduct of the LCA. How has LCA been applied until now? Are there any inconsistencies in the past practice? To answer these questions, we draw on a critical review of 222 published LCA studies of solid waste management systems. We analyse the past practice against the ISO standard requirements and the ILCD Handbook guidelines for each major step within the goal definition, scope definition, inventory analysis, impact assessment, and interpretation phases of the methodology. Results show that malpractices exist in several aspects of the LCA with large differences across studies. Examples are a frequent neglect of the goal definition, a frequent lack of transparency and precision in the definition of the scope of the study, e.g. an unclear delimitation of the system boundaries, a truncated impact coverage, difficulties in capturing influential local specificities such as representative waste compositions into the inventory, and a frequent lack of essential sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Many of these aspects are important for the reliability of the results. For each of them, we therefore provide detailed recommendations to practitioners of waste management LCAs.     

A Review Of The Management Of Radioactive Wastes In Medical Institutes

Amongst the waste from health care institutions, radioactive waste represents a special category since it cannot be modified or neutralized by any available conventional means. Accordingly, disposal of radioactive waste can mean only its transfer from a place where it represents some hazard to somewhere else where it can be retained without undue risk. Radioactive waste arises in health care institutes as a result of diagnostic, therapeutical or research uses of unsealed radioactive substances. Sometimes, sealed sources withdrawn from further use might also be subject to disposal. Most radionuclides used in medicine are short-lived beta-, or beta-gamma emitters and represent a low risk, if properly handled, that is if due care is taken to prevent significant contamination of the workplace and personnel. Low-activity gaseous and liquid waste can usually be discharged to the environment directly; medium-activity or high-activity waste should be stored for variable periods to allow natural decay before specialized disposal.This paper presents a review of the different types of radioactive wastes produced in hospitals, and introduces many of the sources of generation and subsequent disposal options. An example is given of the wide range of guidance available, both by national bodies in Hungary and international agencies, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), World Health Organisation (WHO) and International Committee on Radiological Protection (ICRP).     

Risk Assessment in Remediation: Accurately Accounting for Uncertainty

Cleanup levels at hazardous waste sites are typically developed based at least in pan on either generic or site-specific risk assessments. Risk assessment in its purest form should be a measure of the potential for a site to cause adverse effects and therefore should be used as the basis for cleanup. However, the process of risk assessment continues to be subject to problems, primarily related to inherent uncertainties in the exposure parameters and toxicity criteria that are the building blocks of the risk assessment. Criticism of risk assessments and risk-based decisions range from comments that the process inadequately protects human health to comments that the process is overly protective, and examples of both ends of the spectrum are readily available. Site remediation professionals should be aware of the issues related to uncertainty and understand the potential problems in order to ensure appropriate and effective site cleanup. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Assessment of performance of solid waste management contractors: a simple techno-social model and its application

Despite being in operation for more than 7 years now, privatised solid waste management (SWM) service in Tanzania has not been formally assessed. This is the premise for the techno-social performance assessment model for SWM contractors, which is presented in this paper. This paper outlines the background of SWM privatisation in Dar es Salaam City in addition to describing and demonstrating the application of the assessment model. The model has three components: service beneficiaries' assessment sub-model, service area technical assessment sub-model, and contractors' attributes sub-model. The model can be used to assess the performance of SWM contractors and in so doing provide data for assessing SWM privatisation as a whole. In the application of the model presented in this paper scores for 5 assessed contractors are in the range 24-65%. The contractor who scored highest is also the most experienced and also the best equipped. Nevertheless, all contractors scored poorly with the respect to their ability and attributes in SWM mainly because most of them are new to the solid waste management field.     

Multi-objective reverse logistics model for integrated computer waste management.

This study aimed to address the issues involved in the planning and design of a computer waste management system in an integrated manner. A decision-support tool is presented for selecting an optimum configuration of computer waste management facilities (segregation, storage, treatment/processing, reuse/recycle and disposal) and allocation of waste to these facilities. The model is based on an integer linear programming method with the objectives of minimizing environmental risk as well as cost. The issue of uncertainty in the estimated waste quantities from multiple sources is addressed using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. An illustrated example of computer waste management in Delhi, India is presented to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed model and to study tradeoffs between cost and risk. The results of the example problem show that it is possible to reduce the environmental risk significantly by a marginal increase in the available cost. The proposed model can serve as a powerful tool to address the environmental problems associated with exponentially growing quantities of computer waste which are presently being managed using rudimentary methods of reuse, recovery and disposal by various small-scale vendors.     

A critique of risk modeling and risk assessment of municipal landfills based on U.S. Environmental Protection Agency techniques

Environmental risks are a growing public concern in America. The threat of contaminated drinking water from municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills is receiving increased attention from citizens and from the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Examination of USEPA data collected from MSW landfills reveals approximate risks posed by these landfills. USEPA research suggests that 60% of MSW landfills present less than a 1 in 10 billion risk of cancer incidence. Another 6% pose risks less than 1 in a billion, while 17% present risks less than 1 in a million. This study addresses the USEPA risk assessment techniques and models for estimating MSW landfill risks. USEPA data for toxic constituents of landfill leachate are also analysed in order to better understand the difficulties encountered in estimating landfill risks. The study also presents a brief discussion of public perceptions of risk as they relate to communicating the USEPA landfill model results to those who might be affected.     

Analysis of high-level waste glass performance by the physical and geochemical simulation code STRAG4

A source term release analysis code for high-level waste glass has been developed for simulation of long-term dissolution behavior under repository conditions. The STRAG4 code consists of models for (a) element diffusion in both the bulk glass and surface layer, (b) glass dissolution kinetics at the interface between glass and water, and (c) geochemical reactions of dissolved elements in underground water. The simulations for various conditions of glass dissolution, including a static and dynamic system, show accordance with the experimental observations even in the relatively complicated case where bentonite is present. Long-term dissolution analyses of a borosilicate waste glass were carried out as preliminary study. The calculations were achieved by considering detrimental effects due to interactions between the glass and surrounded materials which are presumed to be in a repository environment (i.e., compacted bentonite, corrosion products from the iron overpack, and underground water). The environmental conditions such as temperature and geochemical reactions are also taken into account in the calculations. The results suggest the life of the waste glass would be more than 50,000 years even if the glass surface area increased by a factor of 10 due to crack formation.     

Assessment of non-regulated hazardous wastes in the Seattle area

The results of a quantitative study to assess the extent and degree of non-regulated hazardous waste present in municipal solid waste generated in King County, Washington State, U.S.A., are reported. A major objective of the study was to ascertain the health and environmental impacts of non-regulated hazardous waste within the County's collection, transport, and disposal systems and to formulate policies for managing non-regulated hazardous waste within the context of the County's solid waste management master plan. The study sampled municipal waste disposed at seven transfer stations in the County for the purpose of identifying the types and concentrations of non-regulated hazardous waste. Subsequent to the field sampling work and the conduct of the laboratory analyses, a risk assessment was performed to determine the types and degree of risk associated with the levels of non-regulated hazardous waste found in the waste stream. The assessment included the areas of occupational health and safety, of public health, and of environmental impact.     

Modelling of environmental impacts of solid waste landfilling within the life-cycle analysis program EASEWASTE

A new computer-based life-cycle assessment model (EASEWASTE) has been developed to evaluate resource and environmental consequences of solid waste management systems. This paper describes the landfilling sub-model used in the life-cycle assessment program EASEWASTE, and examines some of the implications of this sub-model. All quantities and concentrations of leachate and landfill gas can be modified by the user in order to bring them in agreement with the actual landfill that is assessed by the model. All emissions, except the generation of landfill gas, are process specific. The landfill gas generation is calculated on the basis of organic matter in the landfilled waste. A landfill assessment example is provided. For this example, the normalised environmental effects of landfill gas on global warming and photochemical smog are much greater than the environmental effects for landfill leachate or for landfill construction. A sensitivity analysis for this example indicates that the overall environmental impact is sensitive to the gas collection efficiency and the use of the gas, but not to the amount of leachate generated, or the amount of soil or liner material used in construction. The landfill model can be used for evaluating different technologies with different liners, gas and leachate collection efficiencies, and to compare the environmental consequences of landfilling with alternative waste treatment options such as incineration or anaerobic digestion.     

Economic Project Risk Assessment in Remediation Projects Prior to Construction: Methodology Development and Case Study Application

Probabilistic economic analysis, including uncertainty of probabilities and consequences of project risks, is not widely used in remediation projects. This article presents a project risk assessment (PRA) method to identify, quantify, and analyze risks in remediation projects. The suggested method is probabilistic and includes uncertainty analysis of input variables based on expert judgment. It was originally developed as a part of a sustainability assessment tool, but is viable as a stand‐alone tool for remediation projects. The method is applied to a case study: a former paint factory that is being redeveloped into a residential area. The PRA method is used for analyzing and comparing the project risks associated with four remediation options, all including excavation but with different degrees of onsite treatment. The result of the case study application shows which alternative has the lowest mean risk cost, the highest probability to have the lowest risk cost, and how the risk costs are distributed, but also, importantly, helps the user to prioritize between risk‐reduction measures. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals