The USSR, China, India and the world metals industry to 2010

Remarkable changes are occurring within the economies of the USSR, China and India that are influencing mineral industry activities. These three countries account for a major share of world minerals production and consumption. Their domestic reforms may ultimately have a serious impact on the global mining industry. This paper examines the present status of the Soviet, Chinese and Indian mineral industries, and forecasts conditions to 2010. Long-term characteristics analysed include industrial production, intensity of use, consumption, mine and plant expansion and trade policy. Six metals are highlighted in the study – aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, steel and zinc.     

Byproduct production of minor metals: Threat or opportunity for the development of clean technologies? The PV sector as an illustration

Today, the fight against global warming and the coming hydrocarbon exhaustion involve a drastic increase of clean energies. These technologies resort to many minor metals which are byproduct of major metals. We will take the definition of Hagelüken and Mesker (2010, Complex Life Cycles of Precious and Special Metals. In: Edition Thomas E. Graedel, Ester van der Voet (Eds.), Strüngmann Forum Report, Linkages of Sustainability, MIT Press) to show precisely what minor metals are: “[they are] metals that have relatively low production or usage, which occur in low ore concentrations, are regarded as rare, or are not traded at major public exchanges”. We will analyze the byproduct status affecting almost each minor metal in order to determine if the link with the metal main product can involve a threat for clean technology development. This paper will also deal with the theory and implications of the relationship between the byproduct and the main-product and then check it with empirical data. Until now, byproduct metal production and its variations seem relatively independent from major metal production thanks to the non-saturation of potential supply. By 2050, photovoltaic solar development should not lead to the saturation of potential supply.     

Has the bell tolled for the North American mineral and metal industry?

The author examines the reasons behind the current state of the North American metal mining industry. Taking demand-side factors first, he explains the dramatic fall in metals consumption. External shocks are seen to have affected the previously well rationalized structure of supply in the 1960s, bringing about an increase in production costs and limiting capacity for industrial rationalization. At the beginning of the 1980s, the situation is seen to have been exacerbated by a larger number of producers, more supply sources and an increase in costs. During the course of the decade, the author relates how the situation worsened due to the strength of the US dollar and high interest rates.     

Impact of market reforms on future patterns of non-ferrous metal consumption of the former Soviet Union

The study examines the implications of market-oriented reforms on the prospects of non-ferrous metal use in the former USSR. Past metal consumption behaviour of the USSR is found to differ considerably from prevailing patterns of the advanced market economies. The study estimates a large 'intensity- of-use' gap across metals, which can be taken as a relatively easily mobilizable source for efficiency improvements via market reforms. Two scenarios for economic reforms are modelled, notably radical and gradual. Both are shown to cause a collapse of varying intensity in domestic metal demand lasting until the mid-1990s. For the subsequent period, a turnaround in consumption trends is projected, which is sharper under the radical reform scenario. The projected collapse of domestic demand argues for an increasing exportable surplus in the former Soviet Union for a range of non-ferrous metals, with potentially severe depressive effect on world prices.     

Advances in materials science and changes in the metal industry

High temperature superconductivity is representative of the advances being made in the science of materials. Both the theoretical and practical understanding of materials is making great progress. The advances are changing the world in which metals producers operate. One of the major changes is that the material-use decision is becoming more complex. The new materials have an advantage against the older materials in that they dominate the general discussions, relegating metals to a 'has-been' role. Unless the metals industries become more adept at maintaining the knowledge that metals are adaptable and suitable for most uses, metals will suffer greater than necessary losses in market share to new materials.     

中美贸易模式变化对中国大气汞排放的影响

在全球贸易体系中,美国是中国大气汞排放的主要外部消费驱动力之一。现有研究多核算国际贸易驱动的大气汞排放,识别主要的贸易驱动关系,缺乏中美贸易模式变化对中国大气汞排放的影响分析。本文基于环境扩展型投入产出模型和结构分解分析方法,计算了1997—2017年中美贸易驱动的中国大气汞排放量,并深入分析了贸易相关的社会经济因素对中国大气汞排放变化的相对贡献。研究结果表明:1997—2007年,中美贸易驱动的中国大气汞排放从13.5 t增至32.8 t,2007年后开始回落,2017年回落至13.6 t。贸易规模扩大是推动大气汞排放增加的最主要因素(62.6 t),排放强度降低是大气汞排放减少的最大驱动因素(-67.0 t)。生产技术水平变化和贸易结构变化的贡献相对较小,近年来逐渐起到促进大气汞排放减少的作用,但其贡献不稳定。根据研究结果,提出了加快产业创新升级,优化、稳定贸易结构,提升产品竞争力等建议。     

The copper industry 1945–1975

During the 1945–1975 period copper differed from other major non-ferrous metals and mineral products in experiencing rising real prices, on a trend basis. This paper examines the major features of supply and demand over the period, including the impact of economic activity, changing locations of consumption and trends in costs. Government controls affecting both supply and demand and US government stockpiling policies were all pervasive especially in the 1950s. Supply was throughout periodically interrupted by lengthy and widespread strikes and was also subject to frequent and wide-ranging political disturbances during the 1960s. From the early 1960s onwards a substantial share of world production became state controlled, profoundly altering the objectives and commercial policies of suppliers. Tightening anti-trust legislation and the changing location of consumption combined with changes in ownership to weaken the willingness and ability of suppliers to influence prices. The paper concludes that the behaviour of copper prices during the 1945–1975 period arose from the particular circumstances of the time and offers very little guidance, if any, to likely future trends.     

Copper in India: Present and future outlook

The availability of mineral resources plays an important role in India's national economy. Copper, one of the important non-ferrous metals, has various industrial uses and demand for it is increasing in India where the inventory and production of copper, though not comparable with developed countries, shows an impressive growth rate, particularly during the last decade. With an increasing rate of industrial production envisaged in future plans copper consumption is expected to rise. Logistic curves have been used to study the potential long-term production capability under the dynamic concept of reserves and resources, with curves drawn for various estimates of total available resources. The production figures shown are not final and are subject to change due to a number of factors. This approach merely provides a method for projecting trends in future production.     

Metal scarcity and sustainability,analyzing the necessity to reduce the extraction of scarce metals

There is debate whether or not further growth of metal extraction from the earth's crust will be sustainable in connection with geologic scarcity. Will future generations possibly face a depletion of specific metals? We study whether, for which metals and to what extent the extraction rate would need to be reduced in order to be sustainable. To do so, we propose an operational definition for the sustainable extraction rate of metals. We have divided 42 metals in 4 groups according to their geologic scarcity. Applying the proposed sustainability definition to the 17 scarcest metals, shows that for almost all considered metals the global consumption of primary resources needs to be reduced to stay within sustainable limits as defined in our analysis. The 8 geologically scarcest metals are antimony, bismuth, boron, copper, gold, molybdenum, rhenium and zinc.     

Is there a common metals demand curve?

Previous studies have identified a single, stable and strong correlation between the price of metals and their consumption, such that low priced metals are always used in large amounts and visa versa. Some have interpreted this as evidence that metals share a common demand curve so that a single price elasticity of demand exists. This paper reviews and tests this hypothesis against a number of other possible explanations, including the idea that the relationship is an empirical curiosity. Modifications to the demand curve were tested by allowing metals to have different intercepts and price elasticities. The results from this analysis suggest that metals do not share a common demand curve and that the correlation identified between the price of metals and their level of consumption is an empirical curiosity. As such, the singular price elasticities published in past papers should not be used for assessing future rates of metals substitution.     

Pig iron production structure in Japan

Japan is the world's largest steel producing country, and around half of its total input requirements for coking coal and iron ore are sourced from Australia. Moreover, around half of Australia's total coking coal and iron ore exports go to Japan each year. Therefore, changes in the demand for these two inputs are likely to have a significant impact on Australia. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the production structure of the blast furnaces in Japan and factors affecting the demand for iron making raw materials. The empirical study is based on the generalized Leontief cost function. Because of its functional flexibility, the model allows testing various hypotheses regarding pig iron production from blast furnaces. Based on the data from 1974 to 1991, the modelling results show that the Japanese ironmaking technology, when considered as an aggregate production process using fuel and iron ore as major inputs, could be characterized by fixed factor proportions, constant returns to scale and technical changes that can be explained by systematic changes in input mix. Moreover, while there is little variation in the iron ore usage rate, variations in fuel usage rate can be explained largely by changes in the make-up of iron ore charge and blast furnace production capacity over the sample period.     

The Effect of Government Involvement on the Economics of the Base Metals Industry

The correctness of the statement that surplus production and depressed prices in the base metal industries are the result of state ownership in the mining industry is examined by analyzing the production figure of publicly and privately owned companies. The conclusion is that for some metals the statement is true. But it is equally true that, for some, privatelyowned mining companies have also maintained high levels of production in the face of depressed demand. The reasons why both state and privately owned mining companies have not been able to rationalize production are examined. For privately owned companies it is suggested that a shift in the method of financing mineral projects, i.e. from retained earnings to bank loans, is an important factor.     

Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining

The concept of “peak oil” has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of “peak minerals”, particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline.The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century.     

New mercantilism: A perspective on how politics is shaping world metal supply

The major countries consuming metals tended historically to be also the major countries producing them. It was in their interest to promote mine development to provide low cost raw materials. Over the past fifty years, the share of global production accounted for by consuming countries has declined and producers and consumers of metals have been slowly moving into separate camps having distinct and differing interests. As a consequence of this, governments of producing countries have become more focused on how to maximise the benefit of metal extraction to their economies rather than on how to supply cheap raw materials; a tendency which has found expression in resource nationalism. Governments of consuming countries have in response become increasingly concerned about the implications of this tendency to their economic development and some countries, most notably China, have adopted robust policies to secure their supplies. Through their actions to influence capital flows within the mining industry and to force metals trade into channels which better serve their national interests (a process characterised here as ‘new mercantilism’), metal producing and metal consuming countries are reshaping global supply.     

Long-term perspectives on world metal use—a system-dynamics model

In this paper, a system dynamics model is described, which simulates long-term trends in the production and consumption of metals (i.e. iron/steel and an aggregate of metals of medium abundance) in relation to impacts such as ore-grade decline, capital and energy requirements and waste flows. This metal model can be of assistance in exploring the issue of sustainability of metal resource use. Application of the model to historical trends shows it to be fairly capable of reproducing the long-term trends in the 1900–1990 period, among others on the basis of two intensity of use curves applied to 13 world regions. For future trends, a set of perspective-based long-term scenarios has been constructed that represent the major paradigms in resource use. These scenarios highlight some of the uncertain factors in the relation between economic growth, metal resource exploitation and use, and energy and environmental consequences. They also indicate that apparently similar metal flows in society may be the result of quite different and sometimes contrary assumptions on metal demand, production patterns and resource base characteristics. Such analyses contribute to a more open and transparent discussion on the issue at hand by adding quantitative explications to qualitative views.     

Structural changes and price formation in the minerals and metals industry

The paper seeks to analyse the deep structural changes which have occurred in the mining and metals industries over the last twenty years. Slackening demand and its unprecedented persistence have forced producers to innovate and cut costs. Companies have adopted a variety of strategies and the former homogeneity displayed by the industry has given way to a more fluid structure with no clear market leaders.     

The Environmental Appraisal of National Park Management Plans in England and Wales

The Countryside Agency has recommended that national park authorities (NPAs) undertake an environmental appraisal of their national park management plans. A study of the appraisal practices of the NPAs of England and Wales has shown that, despite this guidance, the practice of environmental appraisal is uncommon but that a culture of applying sustainability appraisal is evolving. It is argued that the most likely explanation for this situation is the increasing influence of the concept of sustainable development on the workings of the national park management system. This broad policy development has manifested itself in a variety of ways, including the production of government guidance relating to sustainability appraisal and changes in best practice, each of which have influenced appraisal procedures in national parks. The wider implications of, and drivers behind, the evolution of appraisal procedure towards sustainability appraisal are thus identified and then discussed.     

Geochemical properties and pollution assessment of heavy metals in the sediments of Daechung Lake,Korea

In order to examine the forms, sources, and pollution of heavy metals—arsenic (As), aluminum (Al), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn)—in Daechung Lake, Korea, sediment samples were collected in November 2014. Daechung Lake was constructed to supply water for human consumption, agricultural use, and industrial use as well as to generate electric power. The lake is stratified in the summer and surrounded mostly by agricultural and mining areas. Our results indicate that the heavy metals (except As and Cd) displayed similar concentrations at all of the sampling stations. As and Cd were high in locations where fine sediments had built up. Based on the enrichment factor of the metals, the sediments collected from all of the sampling stations were highly polluted by As and Cd. Therefore, deposition of heavy metals in Daechung Lake is possibly controlled by grain size and anthropogenic activity, such as drainage from abandoned mines, agricultural activities, and/or the release of wastewater. The most dominant forms for all of the metals were oxide and silicate forms. This suggests that the sediments of Daechung Lake are not highly sulfidic. However, the sediment samples were collected after the collapse of seasonal stratification. Therefore, future studies should include elucidation of major sources for As and Cd and the collection of sediments during months of stratification.     

消费价值差对绿色消费行为意向的影响

文章基于文献分析,提出了消费价值差模型,并以此结合量表和结构方程模型来检验消费价值差对消费者绿色商品的消费意向与市场需求的影响。研究结果说明,消费价值差越大,绿色消费行为意向和市场需求程度越低,其中效用价值差与环境价值差的反向影响最大。鉴于上述结论,政府及企业在制定相关政策及设计推广绿色商品时,应重视消费者的认知和情感需求,并针对不同群体开展具有差异性的环保宣教工作。