The Worldwide Availability of Gold

This paper summarizes Bureau of Mines research relating to the state of the world gold industry. The authors discuss the world gold industry structure, demonstrated gold resources, current production, and the long-term cost and availability of potential future gold production.
The long-term cost and availability of primary gold production from 111 significant producing mines and developing deposits in 13 market economy countries (MECs) is evaluated. Total recoverable gold available (as of January 1984) from the evaluated mines and deposits is estimated at 819 million troy ounces. The Republic of South Africa is estimated to account for 87% of total recoverable gold. The USA and Canada account for 4% and 4.5% of the total, respectively. Eighty-three per cent of total recoverable gold is available at a constant 1984 break-even price of $400 per ounce, and 70% is available at $300 per ounce. South Africa accounts for 90% of the gold available at $400 per ounce or less. Gold resources in the Soviet Union and China are discussed but not evaluated for costs of production. Some conclusions of the analyses are that South Africa should remain the largest world producer until the year 2000 and annual MEC output in the year 2000 should not be significantly different from current output, given constant 1984 gold prices of more than $300 per ounce.     

The Worldwide Availability of Fluorspar

This paper reviews a recent assessment of fluorspar reserves and resources for 13 market economy countries and the People's Republic of China, and how they relate to the overall availability of fluorspar on the world market. Current world production, consumption and world trade issues are discussed.
Nearly 5 million tonnes of fluorspar were produced in 1985, and approximately 60% of that enters the world export market. In recent years world trade has started to shift away from the acid, metallurgical and ceramic grades of fluorspar, as ore-producing countries look towards higher-value downstream products.
Total potentially recoverable fluorspar from 52 major producing mines and deposits is estimated at nearly 95 million tonnes (as of January 1985). The Republic of South Africa accounts for 31% of the reserves, with Mexico and the People's Republic of China each contributing 18%.
The average total cost and availability of fluorspar is evaluated. Approximately 75% of acid-grade fluorspar evaluated is potentially available at or below a 1985 constant-dollar cost of US$110 tonne⁻¹. Nearly 94% of metallurgical grades are potentially available at costs of US$75 tonne⁻¹ and below, and virtually all of the ceramic grades could be produced at costs below the 1985 reported market price of US$103 tonne⁻¹.     

The recycling of rare earths from waste tricolor phosphors in fluorescent lamps: A review of processes and technologies

Rare earths have become the most important strategic resources, widely used as functional materials in industry and many other aspects of life due to its optical, electrical, and magnetic characteristics. As a consequence, a considerable number of wastes containing rare earths such as abandoned fluorescent lamps are generated and lost. Considering the scarcity in availability and supply of certain raw materials, waste tricolor phosphors are viewed as potential resources that can be mined in urban areas for their reutilization as rare earths. A number of studies in this area have been carried out all over the world.The purpose of this paper is to review the current status of recycling technologies of rare earths from waste tricolor phosphors in fluorescent lamps. The main characteristics of the tricolor phosphors were introduced, and also a detail review of the typical single recycling and reusing technologies with regard to waste tricolor phosphors was carried out in present paper. After that, several combined recycling processes and technologies were evaluated. Based on the review, the prospects of recycling technologies were suggested.     

Rare earth elements as critical raw materials: Focus on international markets and future strategies

Supply of some critical raw materials by European industry is becoming more and more difficult. After the case of natural textile fibres, in particular cotton, and timber, over the last few years the problem of rare earths (REs) availability has also risen. The 97% of the global supply of rare earth metals (REMs) is produced by China, that has recently done copious cuts of its exports, apparently in order to protect its environment. This fact has greatly increased the REs prices, causing tension and uncertainty among the world hi-tech markets. Many of these materials, in fact, have very few effective substitutes and low recycling rates too. In addition, their natural reserves of rare earths are concentrated in a small number of countries (China, Brazil, US, Russia, Democratic Republic of Congo). REMs are a group of 17 elements particularly used in many new electronic and advanced components: such as fuel cells, mobile phones, displays, hi-capacity batteries, permanent magnets for wind power generation, green energy devices, etc. Many analysts foresee much more requests in the next decades.     

The Worldwide Availability of Phosphate Rock

The US Bureau of Mines has investigated the resource potential of 201 phosphate mines and depositee in 28 market economy countries and 17 mines and deposits in the USSR and China. The 201 mines and deposits contain an estimated 34.2 billiong tonnes (t) of recoverable phosphate rock (at the demonstrated resource level), with Morocco and Western Sahara accounting for 61% (21 billion t) and with the USA accounting for 19% (6.4 billion t). The 17 mines and deposits evaluated in the USSR and China contain approximately 1.5 billion t of potentially recoverable phosphate rock. Potential annual capacity from low-cost, high-grade producing mines in the USA is estimated to decline significantly during the latter half of the next decade, and the US phosphate fertilizer industry will have to obtain phosphate rock by developing new, higher-cost, lower-grade mines or import phosphate rock to satisfy anticipated demand in the next century. Of the world's new production capacity that are likely to be developed over the next decade, slightly over one-third could be produced at an estimated 1981 cost of $40/t or less, and about two-thirds would cost in the $40 to $50 per tonne range (including a 15% rate of return). In comparison, most of the competing phosphate rock from producing mines in Morocco could be produced for less than $40/t.     

World phosphate supply

The Bureau of Mines investigated the resources, costs, capacities, market relationships, and short- and long-run supply of phosphate rock and phosphoric acid. The 206 mines and deposits evaluated in 30 market economy countries (MECs) contain an estimated 35.1 billion tonnes of recoverable phosphate rock (demonstrated resource level). US resources are sufficient to satisfy both the domestic market and an export market for phosphate products well beyond 2000. Resource depletion at current producers, however, means new property development (with higher costs) will be required if US production levels are to be maintained. Existing worldwide capacity can satisfy expected demand through the early 1990s. Expansion at existing mines or low demand growth could mean no new property development is required before the late 1990s. Worldwide, almost $8 billion could be required for the development of new phosphate rock properties between now and 2000, given 3% annual growth in demand. Though profit may not be the principal motivation for development of government-owned operations, most properties that could develop in the 1990s would require price increases of 20–50% to break even. To earn a 15% rate of return on investment, prices must rise to nearly double the $23–271 tonne US price level of 1988. Current US phosphate rock and phosphoric acid producers appear to be competitive (on a variable cost basis) with many other suppliers in major markets. New US properties will have higher variable costs than current producers; however, they are competitive with most projected new foreign development. The US phosphoric acid industry will most likely face increased competition as more of the foreign phosphate rock producers develop the capacity to process rock into phosphoric acid and other fertilizer products.     

Company engagement with supply chains to protect biodiversity and rare,threatened, and endangered species

Future global megatrends project a population increase of 2 billion people between 2019 and 2050 and at least 1–2 billion people added to the global middle class between 2016 and 2030. In addition, 68% of the world's population is projected to be living in urban areas by 2050. With these projected large population increases and shifts, demand for food, water, and energy is projected to grow by approximately 35, 40, and 50%, respectively, between 2010 and 2030. In addition, between 1970 and 2014 there was an estimated 60% reduction in the number of wildlife in the world and an estimated net loss of 2.9 billion birds, or 29%, in North America between 1970 and 2018. Loss of species populations and number of species is interconnected with reduced health of biodiversity and ecosystems. Human activity has been the main catalyst for these substantial declines primarily through impacts on habitats. These losses are accelerating. Since a company's supply chain environmental impacts are often as great or greater than its own direct environmental impacts, it may be prudent for companies to engage with their supply chains to protect and enhance habitats and biodiversity and protect rare, threatened, and endangered species. As one example, companies may have opportunities and strategic reasons to include requirements in their supplier codes of conduct and supplier standards for suppliers to protect biodiversity and rare, threatened, and endangered species, as well as additional requirements to expand or enhance habitats and ecosystems to increase biodiversity. This article follows one pathway that companies could pursue further and with greater speed—to engage with their supply chains to strengthen supplier codes of conduct to protect biodiversity and rare, threatened, and endangered species. The importance of forests, private land, and landscape partnerships is discussed as means to protect much more of the planet's biodiversity and rare, threatened, and endangered species. Lastly, the article identifies examples of opportunities for companies to more formally incorporate biodiversity into their business, supply chain, and sustainability strategies.     

Tin Availability in Market Economy Countries

The U.S. Department of Interior's Bureau of Mines determined costs associated with the production of tin from 18 market economy countries (MECs). The resource and relative economic positions of 146 tin deposits were evaluated. Demonstrated resources of recoverable tin metal are estimated to be 2.8 million metric tons. Over 70% of this material is recoverable from three south-east Asian countries - Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia; all are members of the International Tin Agreement (ITA).
In the last five years, Brazil has become a major, low-cost tin producer. In light of their large resources Brazil has become a dominant MEC tin producer and one of the world's few tin producers that can prosper during a protracted period of low tin prices.     

A case study of an isolated wind powered electricity system meeting 100% of local demand

Using meteorological and electricity demand data for a 4-year period, electricity demand in Shetland was modeled to provide an estimate of the demand over a 30-year period from 1 January 1981. That modeled demand was then compared to estimated wind power output over the same period using the WAsP model. The wind farm output was estimated for a range of sizes of wind farm up to the consented 370 MW Viking Wind Farm in Shetland. Some wind power was available for 94% of the time and the 370 MW wind farm would meet 100% of demand for nearly 80% of the time. The statistics of single and accumulated deficits were calculated for a range of wind farms and estimates of the amount of additional generation capacity and additional power requirements were assessed. The study suggests that with storage, wind power in Shetland could meet all electricity demand in Shetland at around £130 to £150/MWh (excluding subsidy) and with a grid connection allowing the sale of excess power, those costs could be reduced.     

A simple mineral market model: Can it produce super cycles in prices?

This paper develops a stylized supply–demand model for a mineral/nonrenewable commodity. It embodies important distinctions between short-run and long-run mineral supply and the derived demand for minerals as intermediate goods in production sectors with differing intensities of use. This framework is used to address the question: under what conditions might one expect to observe super cycles (i.e. cycles with a period of 20–70 years) in minerals prices? A plausible time path for GDP$GDP$ growth and the structural transformation that accompanies economic development in an emerging region is specified. Using these drivers and reasonable supply and demand parameters, price dynamics are simulated. The result is an asymmetric price cycle with a peak price that is about 250% above trend and an expansion phase that lasts for about 20 years. Thus, this simple model is capable of producing a single cycle with a frequency and amplitude in the range estimated in the empirical literature on super cycles. As other regions reach the development ‘take-off' phase, additional super cycles should emerge.     

International oil market – new directions

This article focuses on changes in the international petroleum industry during the past 20 years and examines some major trends, especially since the oil price collapse of 1986. The resumption of rapid increases in oil demand since 1986 in the developed market economies and the developing world has already led to a pronounced production shift to OPEC member countries where output increased by 6.6 million barrels per day or, 37% since 1985. Cutbacks in petroleum investments in non-OPEC countries are likely to result in even more dependence on the vast proved oil reserves of OPEC. However, the gap between peak output and sustainable production capacities in OPEC has narrowed and there is an urgent need for sizeable investments to expand capacities. Such investment programmes are already being implemented by transnational oil corporations in countries such as Indonesia and Nigeria where the companies had retained equity participation. In other countries such as Iraq and Venezuela where oil operations had been nationalized, transnational oil corporations are being invited to participate in new arrangements for oil production. New arrangements are also being considered in Eastern Europe and the USSR. New understandings, dialogue and cooperation between oil-consuming and producing countries will be necessary for the security of investments, supplies and markets in this process. The unanswered question is whether such cooperation can be achieved in time in order to avoid yet another energy crisis.     

OPTIMIZATION IN MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM DESIGN1

ABSTRACT. The design of a municipal water supply system may involve utilizing singly or in combination a conventional water supply, a desalted water supply, and a supply from a recharged aquifer reservoir. Optimization of the design requires a model formulated in a way that modern methods of systems analysis can be used. This study concerns the formulation, solution, and evaluation of a mathematical model of a municipal water supply system that includes a supply from a variable quality output desalting plant. The combined system is operated in conjunction with an artificially recharged aquifer reservoir. Also considered are short periods of water shortages. The model is set up in an approximate linear programming format, and the optimum solution (minimum cost) is found. The model is tested by applying it to the design of a supply system to meet the 1985 estimated water demand of the city of Lincoln, Nebraska. Results of this test indicate that the artificial reservoir and the existing conventional supply system are capable of supplying that demand during all but the peak period. An electrodialysis desalting system is used in this analysis. It is competitive only when the length of transmission pipeline for a conventional supply system approaches 90 miles. The model is formulated in a general way so that it can be applied to almost all situations encountered in municipal water supply design, as well as to the specific system designated for this study.     

Developments and prospects of world lead and zinc mining

World developments in lead and zinc are examined for 1970-90 and projections presented for 1995. Although lead consumption has Increased during the period under review, lead mine production has been on a decline, the differences being made up from secondary lead sources. Lead mine production is projected to be steady to 1995, with increased consumption continuing to be met from secondary sources. Zinc mine production increased at a trend rate of about 1% per year between 1970 and 1990, but for 1991-95, production is expected to grow at a lower rate. For 1990-95 zinc consumption is expected to grow at a rate of 2.3%. This modest mine production increase to 1995 is unlikely to be adequate to meet growth in MEC zinc consumption.     

Time-series analysis of global zinc demand associated with steel

This study aimed to analyze the global-scale substance flow of zinc associated with steel in order to discuss the sustainable use of zinc resources in the future. The relationship between the demand for steel and zinc was characterized in terms of zinc intensity for galvanized steel and the percentage of galvanized steel that accounts for the total steel demand. Zinc consumption for steel was divided into end uses according to the statistics on steel. Zinc demand in the future was forecasted with three scenarios for zinc intensity. Future steel demand was estimated using the stocks-drive-flows model, in which the demand is determined by the change in stock. The growth of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the future was estimated by considering economic growth on the basis of the transition of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the past. The cumulative zinc demand for galvanized steel up to the year 2050 was compared with the zinc reserves. It was found that the global average recovery rate of zinc was estimated at approximately 20% by the dynamic substance flow analysis for zinc. It is hoped that the recovery rate will increase. Even if zinc intensity is continuously reduced according to an experience curve based on technological development, a large portion of the current reserves will be consumed for galvanized steel. It was concluded that technological development in reducing zinc intensity will play a significant role in zinc resource conservation.     

Biodiversity on Swedish pastures: estimating biodiversity production costs

This paper estimates the costs of producing biological diversity on Swedish permanent grasslands. A simple model is introduced where biodiversity on pastures is produced using grazing animals. On the pastures, the grazing animals create a sufficient grazing pressure to lead to an environment that suits many rare and red-listed species. Two types of pastures are investigated: semi-natural and cultivated. Biological diversity produced on a pasture is estimated by combining a biodiversity indicator, which measures the quality of the land, with the size of the pasture. Biodiversity is, in this context, a quantitative measure where a given quantity can be produced either by small area with high quality or a larger area with lower quality. Two areas in different parts of Sweden are investigated. Box-Cox transformations, which provide flexible functional forms, are used in the empirical analysis and the results indicate that the biodiversity production costs differ between the regions. The major contribution of this paper is that it develops and tests a method of estimating biodiversity production costs on permanent pastures when biodiversity quality differs between pastures. If the method were to be used with cost data, that were more thoroughly collected and covered additional production areas, biodiversity cost functions could be estimated and used in applied policy work.     

An inventory of wetland impoundments in the coastal zone of Louisiana,USA: Historical trends

We inventoried wetland impoundments in the Louisiana, USA, coastal zone from the late 1900s to 1985. Historically, impoundment of wetlands for reclamation resulted in direct wetland loss after levees (dikes) failed and the impounded area was permanently flooded, reverting not to wetland, but to open-water habitat. A current management approach is to surround wetlands by levees and water control structures, a practice termed semi-impoundment marsh management. The purpose of this semi-impoundment is to retard saltwater intrusion and reduce water level fluctuations in an attempt to reduce wetland loss, which is a serious problem in coastal Louisiana. In order to quantify the total impounded area, we used historic data and high-altitude infrared photography to map coastal impoundments. Our goal was to produce a documented inventory of wetlands intentionally impounded by levees in the coastal zone of Louisiana in order to provide a benchmark for further research. We inventoried 370,658 ha within the coastal zone that had been intentionally impounded before 1985. This area is equal to about 30% of the total wetland area in the coastal zone. Of that total area, approximately 12% (43,000 ha) is no longer impounded (i.e., failed impoundments; levees no longer exist or only remnants remain). Of the 328,000 ha still impounded, about 65% (214,000 ha) is developed (agriculture, aquaculture, urban and industrial development, and contained spoil). The remaining 35% (114,000 ha) of impoundments are in an undeveloped state (wetland or openwater habitat). In December 1985, approximately 50% (78,000 ha) of the undeveloped and failed impoundments were open-water habitat. This inventory will allow researchers to monitor future change in land-water ratios that occur within impounded wetlands and thus to assess the utility of coastal wetland management using impoundments.     

Changing Trends in World Metal Demand: The Case of Tin

This paper examines the changing trends in world tin demand for the period 1962–1985. In the early 1970s tin production peaked, and has since declined. The reasons for the decline are examined in terms of changes in product composition of income (i.e. mix of goods and services), changes in material composition of products, decline in gross domestic investment and the rising price of tin.     

RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND: A POOLED,TIME SERIES,CROSS SECTION STUDY OF MALMÖ, SWEDEN1

Shortcoming associated with past water demand studies are evaluated. To overcome these shortcomings, pooled, time series, cross section data from -6, Sweden, are used in an ordinary Least squares analysis to estimate the demand for residential water. Elasticities for five variables, including price and income, are estimated. An approach for the conduct of future water demand studies is suggested.     

兰炭生产过程中固体废物的产生与利用现状分析

在对国内兰炭生产工艺流程应用及现状介绍的基础上,概括总结了旧式低温干馏阶段和现阶段兰炭生产过程中固体废物的产生节点、种类、性质和主要处置方式。结果表明,旧式低温干馏阶段,兰炭生产过程中产生的固体废物主要包括煤筛分破碎工序产生的末煤和煤矸石、筛焦工序产生的焦粉、焦油冷却收集系统产生的焦油渣等;现阶段,兰炭生产过程中产生的固体废物主要包括煤筛分破碎工序产生的末煤和煤矸石以及破碎过程中经除尘器收集的煤尘、筛焦工序产生的焦粉、废水处理污泥、焦油冷却收集系统产生的焦油渣、脱硫工序产生的脱硫残液等。其中末煤、煤矸石、煤尘、焦粉作为一般工业固废全部综合利用,废水污泥、焦油渣、脱硫残液主要掺入原料煤中自行消化处置。     

PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PROGRAMS IN APPALACHIA AND THEIR IMPACT ON REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT1

ABSTRACT: The reduction of regional unemployment requires a sufficient demand for regional labor and the demand pattern must parallel that of supply. Due to the interdependency of Appalachian economy with the rest of the Nation, the leakage of the final demand imposed on a subregion of Appalachia is substantial. The more capital intensive the investment the higher the leakage which will lead to less demand for labor in Appalachia. While water resource projects are generally longterm projects which aim at structural changes in a regional economy, consumption expenditures induced by welfare payments or public employment programs are basically temporary measures for the rescue of unemployment. Average consumption and private investment programs may impose on Appalachia a larger material demand but the demand for the total regional labor, off-site and on-site combined, is estimated to be less than that from water resource investments. The public expenditure program for combating regional unemployment must be discretionary based on its purpose and its potential to generate optimum demand for labor which will be created by the pattern of regional resource distribution and interindustrial and interregional interactions. An interregional I/O model is best suited for analysis of this type.