世界职业灾害概述

本文讨论了我国和工业发达国家及世界范围的职业灾害问题，涉及事故伤亡数、重大恶性事故、职业危害、经济损失等四个方面．     

有关1556年关中大地震几个问题的探讨

本文讨论了1556年关中大地震震中位置、震级和人口伤亡等几个问题。认为震中应在潼关、蒲州之间,震级高于8级,人口伤亡数字无夸大的可能。     

地震应急救灾与人员伤亡

讨论了近十年来城市型地震顺应急救灾和减少人员伤亡方面的新经验与新启示;和者们给出的地震人员伤亡旨烤和伤亡状态函数的概念,研究了应急救灾害行动与伤亡的关系。     

我国森林火灾中人员伤亡时空分布特征研究

基于我国1988-2012年森林火灾统计资料及典型案例,运用统计分析方法和ARCMAP空间分析方法,对比同时期世界上几个森林火灾多发国家的统计数据,分析了我国森林火灾中人员伤亡时空特征。结果表明:1988-2012年我国森林火灾造成的人员伤亡情况较为严重,森林火灾中人员伤亡比例远高于同时期的北美国家;森林火灾中人员伤亡高发于干旱严重的年份;春季是森林火灾人员伤亡的高发季节,2000-2012年春季森林火灾中人员伤亡人数占森林火灾伤亡总人数的54.2%;3月是森林火灾中人员伤亡的高发月份,1999-2012年3月森林火灾中伤亡人数约占全国伤亡总人数的33.7%;西南和华中地区是伤亡密集区,2000-2012年,西南地区森林火灾的伤亡人数占全全国伤亡总人数的35.5%,2000-2012年华中地区伤亡人数占全国伤亡总人数的24.3%,云南省和湖南省是伤亡重灾省份,其中云南省伤亡人数最多,以轻伤为主,云南省轻伤人数占全国轻伤总人数的73.0%。     

广东省雷电伤亡事故特征分析

通过1995-2016年广东雷电灾害汇编记录的雷灾伤亡事件资料和1999-2016年广东省电力雷电定位系统数据对广东省雷电伤亡事故特征进行分析,(1)1075起雷灾伤亡事件中,死亡人数约是受伤人数的1.2倍,1起雷灾事件最多伤亡数为17个,2人以上的多人受伤概率要远大于多人死亡;雷灾伤亡高于全省平均水平的农村地区政府更应重视防御工作;(2)每月的雷电灾情特征与闪电活动年变化相关;雷电灾情的时间特征与人们的作息时间相关,尤其对于户外活动较集中的农村地区更应关注雷电频发时段。(3)雷灾伤亡事件发生在农田的最多,造成群死群伤事件主要是发生在未做雷电防护措施的建筑物内和大树旁。(4)雷灾伤亡人员中男女比例相当,但男女同时遭受雷击时女性更易遭受身亡。由于不同年龄段从事不同种类的工作,导致壮年年龄段(25-64岁)男性伤亡高于女性,但是在伤亡最多的31-40年龄段中女性伤亡是男性的1.46倍。总之,雷电引起的伤亡事故大部分发生在农村地区,提高农村农民防雷减灾意识和加强乡村振兴防雷减灾服务的工作迫在眉睫。     

评价自然灾害健康效应及其需要的指标体系

介绍了评价自然灾害健康效应及其需要的指标体系。提出通过调查死亡、伤亡、患病等，分析其与灾区人口、特定年龄人群、职业、习惯、地理位置、时间分布等关系，来科学评价灾害的严重性，提出救灾技术措施和确定主要卫生服务内容，保护易感人群，为灾后进行建筑物结构或位置的易感性分析以及制定防灾减灾计划提供科学依据。     

甘肃省永靖县黄茨滑坡的滑动机理与临滑预报

1995年1月30日甘肃省永靖县盐锅峡镇黄茨村后的黄土塬边发生一个体积约600万m~3的大滑坡，由于事前的严密监测和准确临滑预报，滑坡滑下时未造成一人伤亡，财产损失也减小到最低限度。同时创造了我国多手段、多信息综合跟踪预报滑坡的成功先例。本文主要介绍该滑坡的地质基础、滑动机理和临滑预报的方法和依据。     

换个视角谈地震观测改进与研究

自建国以来，中国的地震工作从无到有，地震队伍在不断壮大，经历了一个漫长发展的历程。而2008年5月12日下午2时28分发生在汶川的8．0级特大地震，造成了重大的伤亡和经济损失，引起地震工作者们的认真反思：多年来的地震工作布局有什么不足之处，哪些需要改进？很多问题值得思考，本文仅就以下三方面做一个讨论。     

灾害带给我们的启示

这次印度洋大地震海啸灾害，带给我们很深刻的启示：其一，要重视建立海啸以及灾害预警机制。这次，如果印度洋沿岸国家建立了海啸预警机制，那么很多伤亡是可以避免的。由于地震震中在海底，波动传递到海岸一般需要20分钟到两个小时，如果当地组织得力，这段时间足够人们逃生。其二，在灾难预防方面，要改变观念，防患于未然。     

1970—2019年全球陆地破坏性地震人员伤亡时空特征及其贡献率分析

基于区域灾害系统理论,梳理了1970—2019年全球陆地破坏性地震灾害数据,运用地理探测器模型量化了地震致灾因子(震中烈度)、承灾体(人口密度、人均GDP)、孕灾环境(海拔、相对高程、坡度)以及房屋损毁对地震人口伤亡的贡献率。结果显示:(1)1970—2019年全球陆地破坏性地震灾害频次呈现波动上升趋势,地震造成的人员伤亡呈现增加趋势,近20 a来7.0级以下地震造成的伤亡人数有下降趋势。(2)全球陆地破坏性地震灾害约60%分布于地中海-喜马拉雅地震带,约35%分布在环太平洋地震带。(3)房屋损毁对地震造成的人口伤亡贡献率最大,其次是震中烈度和人口密度。海拔、相对高程和坡度三者中相对高程对地震造成的伤亡人数贡献率最大。(4)环太平洋地震带和地中海-喜马拉雅地震带上各个影响因子对地震人口伤亡的贡献率存在差异。     

地震损失的预测方法

地震损失预测是一项涉及多种学科的综合性分析。本文给出一种分析方法,可用来确定当城市遭遇一定地震烈度时的可能损失和年平均损失期望值。文中叙述了建筑结构、生命线工程等各类损失预测方法,以及由此引起的间接损失问题,并给出估算人员伤亡的经验公式。最后,用本文方法预测安阳市在遭遇Ⅷ-Ⅸ度地震影响时的经济损失和人员伤亡数,为编制安阳市抗震防灾规划提供了依据。     

Influence of road characteristics on flood fatalities in Australia

ABSTRACT

An analysis of published flood fatalities in Australia occurring between 1960 and 2015 revealed that 49% of 229 flood fatalities were vehicle related. After reviewing previous work on vehicle-related flood fatalities, this study examines attributes of roadways that may have influenced driver decisions to enter floodwaters and the survivability of people in vehicles that did so and concludes by discussing policy implications. Characteristics most frequently present were small upstream catchment length that may influence the rate of rise of floodwaters; the absence of roadside barricades; deep flooding immediately adjacent to the roadway; the absence of lighting; dipping road grades that lead floodwaters to increase once a vehicle enters them; the lack of curb and guttering and the inability of motorists to easily turn around. Each of these factors were observed in at least 50% of the cases studied and provide a risk-based means of assessing other sites vulnerable to flooding but where fatalities have not been observed to date.     

地方政府灾害应急管理问题研究——以灾区某市政府地震灾害应急管理为例

为了建立健全我国突发公共事件应急管理体制,提高各级政府应对突发事件的能力,分析和研究各级政府在突发公共事件应急管理过程中存在的问题显得非常重要。本文通过对九江地区5.7级地震发生后灾区某市政府在应急救灾抢险方面所展开的各项管理工作的调查研究,对灾区政府从启动初动体制到全面展开应急救灾工作的应急管理过程进行了详细分析。在此基础上,以灾区某市政府地震灾害应急管理为例,就我国各级政府在灾害管理过程中普遍存在的有应急预案但没有相应的防灾规划实施细则、灾后受灾应急评估体系不健全、应急避难与应急救灾物资缺少规划管理等问题进行了探讨和分析,并就如何加强我国地方政府灾害应急管理能力提出了相应的建议和方法。     

Comparing earthquake insurance programmes: how would Japan and California have fared after the 2010–11 earthquakes in New Zealand?

Earthquakes are insured in high-risk high-income countries only if the public sector is involved. Prototypical examples are the insurance schemes in California (United States), Japan, and New Zealand, but each is structured differently. This paper examines these variations using a concrete case study: the sequence of earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2010–11—the most heavily insured seismic event in history. It assesses what would have been the outcome had the Christchurch insurance system been different, focusing on the California Earthquake Authority (CEA) programme and Japan Earthquake Reinsurance (JER). Overall, the aggregate cost of the earthquake to the New Zealand public insurer (Earthquake Commission) was USD 6.2 billion. If a similar-sized disaster had occurred in Japan and California, homeowners would have received around USD 1.6 billion and USD 0.7 billion, respectively. This paper describes the distributive and spatial patterns of these scenarios and discusses some key policy questions that emerge from this comparison.     

地震应急通讯保障系统的设计与思考

以华东地震应急联动协作区地震应急演练为例,探讨了演练现场与指挥中心之间异地会商、现场音视频实况转播和测震波形实时显示的主要通讯实现方法;通过比较试验,确定采用WiMAX无线通讯方式传输现场本地数据、采用编解码器传输音视频信号时,双向视频传输需使用2对编解码器,但1对编解码器上就能完全实现异地音频的互通,AV-1600e型编解码器在地震系统目前的卫星应急通讯信道下采用600 kpbs的视频编码率,能提供相对稳定的画面。实践表明,WiMAX无线通讯能较好地扩大野外本地网络通讯半径,编解码器能实现异地音视频互通,但对信道要求较高,效果较难保证。     

Neoliberalism and Criticisms of Earthquake Insurance Arrangements in New Zealand

Global collapse of the Fordist–Keynesian regime of accumulation and an attendant philosophical shift in New Zealand politics to neoliberalism have prompted criticisms of, and changes to, the Earthquake and War Damage Commission. Earthquake insurance arrangements made 50 years ago in an era of collectivist, welfarist political action are now set in an environment in which emphasis is given to competitive relations and individualism. Six specific criticisms of the Commission are identified, each of which is founded in the rhetoric and ideology of a neoliberal political project which has underpinned radical social and economic changes in New Zealand since the early 1980s. On the basis of those criticisms, and in terms of the Earthquake Commission Act 1993, the Commission has been restructured. The new Commission is withdrawing from its primary position as the nation's non-residential property hazards insurer and is restricting its coverage of residential properties.     

Have flood mortality qualitative characteristics changed during the last decades? The case study of Greece

Despite the dramatic increase in recorded flood events in Greece in the last decades, recent findings show that related mortality does not show a corresponding rise. This work develops and studies a database of flood-related fatalities to investigate qualitative changes in flood mortality in the country between 1960 and 2010. Observations show a shift in the circumstances under which fatal incidents occurred and in the demographics of the victims. In particular, indoor fatalities and cases in urban environments gradually decrease in favour of incidents occurring outdoors, in rural settings, mostly using motor vehicles. The number of fatalities per flood event show a decline, indicating that multiple-fatality incidents are gradually disappearing and that advances in protection have an impact on mortality. The increase in the use of vehicles, the improvements in the structural integrity of buildings and the advances in early warning and civil protection practices are found to influence mortality both in qualitative and in quantitative terms.     

唐山市地震影响系数分布研究

地震影响系数是构建地震反应谱的最重要参数之一,也是抗震房屋设计和减灾的基础,唐山市地震影响系数的分布受到场地条件、基岩条件和特殊地质现象等诸多因素的共同影响。通过分析唐山市地震影响系数分布的主要影响因素,得到影响唐山市地震影响系数分布的主要指标。考虑各指标与地震影响系数之间的非线性关联关系,应用人工神经网络方法构建了唐山市地震影响系数分布预测模型。根据实际资料,确定了模型的参数和多个系数矩阵,计算和分析了综合考虑场地和基岩等诸多条件的唐山市地震影响系数分布,并对唐山市的抗震设防规划提出了几点建议。     

Risk factors for driving into flooded roads

Motor vehicle-related deaths account for more than half of all flood fatalities in the United States, but to date, very little is known about the risk factors associated with why people drive into flooded roads. Using data from survey questionnaires administered in Denver, CO, and Austin, TX, this paper suggests that people who do not take warnings seriously are more likely to drive through flooded roads, as are people aged 18–35, and those that do not know that motor vehicles are involved in more than half of all flood fatalities. In Denver, people who have not experienced a flood previously and those who do not know they live in flood-prone areas are also more likely to drive into flooded roads.     

Risk factors for driving into flooded roads

Motor vehicle-related deaths account for more than half of all flood fatalities in the United States, but to date, very little is known about the risk factors associated with why people drive into flooded roads. Using data from survey questionnaires administered in Denver, CO, and Austin, TX, this paper suggests that people who do not take warnings seriously are more likely to drive through flooded roads, as are people aged 18–35, and those that do not know that motor vehicles are involved in more than half of all flood fatalities. In Denver, people who have not experienced a flood previously and those who do not know they live in flood-prone areas are also more likely to drive into flooded roads.