Latitudinal patterns of shell thickness and metabolism in the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica along the east coast of North America

The goal of this study was to quantify growth and metabolic responses of oysters to increased temperatures like those that will occur due to global warming. Impact of temperature on eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) shell growth and metabolism was investigated by sampling 24 sites along the eastern North American seaboard ranging from New Brunswick, Canada, to Florida, USA, in March and August 2013. There was a positive correlation between oyster shell thickness and site temperature. At southern sites, shells were up to 65 % thicker than at the northernmost site, likely due to higher precipitation of CaCO₃ in warmer water. This was supported by laboratory experiments showing that thicker shells were produced in response to temperatures 2, 4, and 6 °C above ambient seawater temperatures (8–14 °C) in Connecticut, USA. Field experiments with oyster respiration were conducted during winter and summer at 13 sites to compare responses to thermal stress with latitude. Respiration rates were much higher during summer than winter, but the combination of summer and winter data fell along the same exponential curve with respect to temperature. At all sites, temperature-specific metabolic rates at elevated temperatures were lower than predicted, indicating significant seasonal acclimatization by C. virginica.     

Temperature and industrial output: Firm-level evidence from China

We pair a firm-level panel of annual industrial output with a fine-scale daily weather data set, to estimate the responses of industrial output to temperature changes in China. We have four primary findings. First, industrial output is nonlinear in temperature changes. With seasonal average temperatures as temperature variables, output responds positively to higher spring temperatures and negatively to elevated summer temperatures. With temperature bins as temperature variables, output increases linearly with temperature up to 21–24 °C, and then declines sharply at higher temperatures. Second, lagged temperature changes exert large and significant impacts on current year’s output. Third, higher summer temperatures have larger detrimental effects on output in low-temperature regions than in high-temperature regions, which suggests that adaptation to warming may have been actively undertaken in high-temperature regions in China. Lastly, industrial output in China is projected to decrease by 3–36% by 2080 under the slowest warming scenario (B1) and by 12–46% under the most rapid warming scenario (A2) under the global climate models UKMO-HadCM3 and PCM.     

Climate, icing, and wild arctic reindeer: past relationships and future prospects

Across the Arctic, heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) is an "extreme" climatic event that is expected to become increasingly frequent with global warming. This has potentially large ecosystem implications through changes in snowpack properties and ground-icing, which can block the access to herbivores' winter food and thereby suppress their population growth rates. However, the supporting empirical evidence for this is still limited. We monitored late winter snowpack properties to examine the causes and consequences of ground-icing in a Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) metapopulation. In this high-arctic area, heavy ROS occurred annually, and ground-ice covered from 25% to 96% of low-altitude habitat in the sampling period (2000-2010). The extent of ground-icing increased with the annual number of days with heavy ROS (> or = 10 mm) and had a strong negative effect on reindeer population growth rates. Our results have important implications as a downscaled climate projection (2021-2050) suggests a substantial future increase in ROS and icing. The present study is the first to demonstrate empirically that warmer and wetter winter climate influences large herbivore population dynamics by generating ice-locked pastures. This may serve as an early warning of the importance of changes in winter climate and extreme weather events in arctic ecosystems.     

Warmer does not have to mean sicker: temperature and predators can jointly drive timing of epidemics

Ecologists and epidemiologists worry that global warming will increase disease prevalence. These fears arise because several direct and indirect mechanisms link warming to disease, and because parasite outbreaks are increasing in many taxa. However, this outcome is not a foregone conclusion, as physiological and community-interaction-based mechanisms may inhibit epidemics at warmer temperatures. Here, we explore this thermal-community-ecology-based mechanism, centering on fish predators that selectively prey upon Daphnia infected with a fungal parasite. We used an interplay between a simple model built around this system's biology and laboratory experiments designed to parameterize the model. Through this data-model interaction, we found that a given density of predators can inhibit epidemics as temperatures rise when thermal physiology of the predator scales more steeply than that of the host. This case is met in our fish-Daphnia-fungus system. Furthermore, the combination of steeply scaling parasite physiology and predation-induced mortality can inhibit epidemics at lower temperatures. This effect may terminate fungal epidemics of Daphnia as lakes cool in autumn. Thus, predation and physiology could constrain epidemics to intermediate temperatures (a pattern that we see in our system). More generally, these results accentuate the possibility that warmer temperatures might actually enhance predator control of parasites.     

Potential impact of climate warming on the recruitment of an economically and ecologically important species, the European lobster (Homarus gammarus) at Helgoland, North Sea

A laboratory-based study was performed to assess the impact of climate warming on the recruitment of the endangered population of the European lobster (Homarus gammarus) at Helgoland (North Sea, German Bight). Egg-bearing females collected in situ just after spawning in late summer were subjected to various seasonal temperature regimes. Regimes with elevated temperatures (mild winters) resulted in a strong seasonal forward shift of larval hatching. Hatching took place at significantly lower temperatures than under regimes with normal winters. Experiments on larval development across a range of constant temperatures showed that no successful larval development occurred at temperatures below 14°C. Larval survival increased from 9% at 14°C to 80% at 22°C, while duration of larval development decreased correspondingly from 26 to 13 days. We hypothesize that an ongoing warming of the North Sea will strongly affect the recruitment success of the Helgoland lobster, mainly resulting from a decoupling of the seasonal peak appearance of larvae from optimal external conditions (temperature, food availability) for larval development.     

Strengthening recruitment of exploited scallops Pecten maximus with ocean warming

There is evidence that ocean warming has effects on the ecology, including recruitment dynamics, of marine organisms. In association with rising mean spring temperatures in the Irish Sea, a time-series of juvenile scallop Pecten maximus density around the Isle of Man showed a significant increasing trend since 1991. Favorable conditions (warmer water and correspondingly greater food availability) during gonad development can increase scallop gamete production. We examined the possibility that ocean warming has directly increased recruitment of exploited P. maximus around the Isle of Man by enhancing gonad development. From 1991–2007, there was a significant positive correlation between scallop recruitment and mean spring (the main period of gonad development) temperature in the year of larval settlement. Detrended (i.e., accounting for a time effect) recruitment data showed a marginally non-significant correlation to temperature. Gonadal somatic index of adult scallops and temperature were positively correlated. These relationships support the hypothesis that greater gamete production associated with ocean warming may be primarily responsible for observed increases in recruitment success and CPUE in a commercially important shellfish stock.     

Effects of Warming Conditions in Eastern North American Forests on Red-Backed Salamander Morphology

Abstract:  Several studies have reported climate-associated changes in phenotypically plastic traits of amphibians, yet it remains unknown whether amphibians can manifest an evolutionary response to global climate change at the rate and magnitude that it is occurring. To assess this issue, we examined temporal change in the morphology of the red-backed salamander ( Plethodon cinereus ), a small, abundant woodland salamander distributed widely in eastern North America with two distinct morphotypes: striped individuals associated with cooler microclimates and unstriped individuals associated with warmer microclimates. We compiled morph frequencies for 50,960 individual salamanders from 558 sites as recorded in the published literature and in unpublished field notes of herpetologists between 1908 and 2004. We observed that striping probability increased with increasing latitude, longitude, and elevation and decreased (from 80% to 74% range wide) with time. The combined forces of regional climate warming and, particularly, forest disturbance have evidently been sufficient to cause morphological evolution in this amphibian over the last century.     

Warming modifies trophic cascades and eutrophication in experimental freshwater communities

Climate warming is occurring in concert with other anthropogenic changes to ecosystems. However, it is unknown whether and how warming alters the importance of top-down vs. bottom-up control over community productivity and variability. We performed a 16-month factorial experimental manipulation of warming, nutrient enrichment, and predator presence in replicated freshwater pond mesocosms to test their independent and interactive impacts. Warming strengthened trophic cascades from fish to primary producers, and it decreased the impact of eutrophication on the mean and temporal variation of phytoplankton biomass. These impacts varied seasonally, with higher temperatures leading to stronger trophic cascades in winter and weaker algae blooms under eutrophication in summer. Our results suggest that higher temperatures may shift the control of primary production in freshwater ponds toward stronger top-down and weaker bottom-up effects. The dampened temporal variability of algal biomass under eutrophication at higher temperatures suggests that warming may stabilize some ecosystem processes.     

Relation between extinction and assisted colonization of plants in the arctic‐alpine and boreal regions

Assisted colonization of vascular plants is considered by many ecologists an important tool to preserve biodiversity threatened by climate change. I argue that assisted colonization may have negative consequences in arctic‐alpine and boreal regions. The observed slow movement of plants toward the north has been an argument for assisted colonization. However, these range shifts may be slow because for many plants microclimatic warming (ignored by advocates of assisted colonization) has been smaller than macroclimatic warming. Arctic‐alpine and boreal plants may have limited possibilities to disperse farther north or to higher elevations. I suggest that arctic‐alpine species are more likely to be driven to extinction because of competitive exclusion by southern species than by increasing temperatures. If so, the future existence of arctic‐alpine and boreal flora may depend on delaying or preventing the migration of plants toward the north to allow northern species to evolve to survive in a warmer climate. In the arctic‐alpine region, preventing the dispersal of trees and shrubs may be the most important method to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. The purported conservation benefits of assisted colonization should not be used to promote the migration of invasive species by forestry.     

Effects of climate change on moose populations: Exploring the response horizon through biometric and systems models

Interest in the response of moose to climate change has increased because of the potential role they play in the conservation of woodland caribou, and threatened loss to recreational and economic opportunities. The objective of this study is to develop a plausible, parsimonious, systems-level model of moose population dynamics that will be useful in exploring the response of moose populations to climate projections. The study begins with a statistical model of moose carrying capacity, which is then integrated into a systems-level model that predicts moose density based on explicit causal factors. Scenario analysis was conducted using a variety of assumptions concerning biotic and abiotic interactions, and under the A2 climate scenario all model scenarios predict a decline of moose density at the southern limits of the Ontario distribution and an increase at the northern extents. Predicted declines are a result of lower carrying capacity and higher heat stress, parasite loads and wolf predation. Given the sensitivity of the model to density-dependent factors, the indirect effect of parasites on decreased recruitment may have greater impact on moose than the direct effect of increased death rate. Results indicate that conservation planning for woodland caribou populations should account for possible increases in moose and wolf populations.     

Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat.

Caribou are an integral component of high-latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long-term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency, extent, and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e., less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat, relative to that currently available, in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5-fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce-lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly, simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure, compared to that which currently exists, with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics.     

Selection of both habitat and genes in specialized and endangered caribou

Genetic mechanisms determining habitat selection and specialization of individuals within species have been hypothesized, but not tested at the appropriate individual level in nature. In this work, we analyzed habitat selection for 139 GPS-collared caribou belonging to 3 declining ecotypes sampled throughout Northwestern Canada. We used Resource Selection Functions comparing resources at used and available locations. We found that the 3 caribou ecotypes differed in their use of habitat suggesting specialization. On expected grounds, we also found differences in habitat selection between summer and winter, but also, originally, among the individuals within an ecotype. We next obtained Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) for the same caribou individuals, we detected those associated to habitat selection, and then identified genes linked to these SNPs. These genes had functions related in other organisms to habitat and dietary specializations, and climatic adaptations. We therefore suggest that individual variation in habitat selection was based on genotypic variation in the SNPs of individual caribou, indicating that genetic forces underlie habitat and diet selection in the species. We also suggest that the associations between habitat and genes that we detected may lead to lack of resilience in the species, thus contributing to caribou endangerment. Our work emphasizes that similar mechanisms may exist for other specialized, endangered species.     

Physiological and behavioral responses of temperate seahorses (Hippocampus guttulatus) to environmental warming

The aim of the present study was to evaluate, for the first time, the effect of environmental warming on the metabolic and behavioral ecology of a temperate seahorse, Hippocampus guttulatus. More specifically, we compared routine metabolic rates, thermal sensitivity, ventilation rates, food intake, and behavioral patterns at average spring temperature (18 °C), average summer temperature (26 °C), temperatures that they endure during summer heat wave events (28 °C), and in a near-future warming scenario (+2; 30 °C) in Sado estuary, Portugal. Both newborn juveniles and adults showed significant increases in metabolic rates with rising temperatures. However, newborns were more impacted by future warming via metabolic depression (i.e., heat-induced hipometabolism). In adult stages, ventilation rates also increased significantly with environmental warming, but food intake remained unchanged. Moreover, the frequency of swimming, foraging, swinging, and inactivity did not significantly change between the different thermal scenarios. Thus, we provide evidence that, while adult seahorses show great resilience to heat stress and are not expected to go through any physiological impairment and behavioral change with the projected near-future warming, the early stages display greater thermal sensitivity and may face greater metabolic challenges with potential cascading consequences for their growth and survival.     

Context-dependent species identity effects within a functional group of filter-feeding bivalves

We asked whether species richness or species identity contributed more to ecosystem function in a trait-based functional group, burrowing, filter-feeding bivalves (freshwater mussels: Unionidae), and whether their importance changed with environmental context and species composition. We conducted a manipulative experiment in a small river examining the effects of mussel assemblages varying from one to eight species on benthic algal standing crop across two sets of environmental conditions: extremely low discharge and high water temperature (summer); and moderate discharge and water temperature (fall). We found strong species identity effects within this guild, with one species (Actinonaias ligamentina) influencing accrual of benthic algae more than other species, but only under summer conditions. We suspect that this effect is due to a combination of the greater biomass of this species and its higher metabolic and excretion rates at warm summer temperatures, resulting in increased nitrogen subsidies to benthic algae. We also found that Actinonaias influenced the condition of other mussel species, likely through higher consumption, interference, or both. This study demonstrates that species within trait-based functional groups do not necessarily have the same effects on ecosystem properties, particularly under different environmental conditions.     

Area-specific temporal changes of species composition and species-specific range shifts in rocky-shore mollusks associated with warming Kuroshio Current

Increases of low-latitude species in various sea areas and poleward shifts of ranges of many species have been reported and linked to warming environments. To examine the generality of these trends for mollusks, we conducted 7 quadrat surveys during 1978–2006 on Pacific rocky shores in Japan (26.6–45.0°N). Results showed that the dominance of southern species increased on 11 of the 15 shores in a southern, warming sea area but on only 1 of the 6 shores in a northern area with no warming trend. The latitudes of species ranges increased on average but showed large interspecific variations which showed a weak, positive correlation with interspecific taxonomic distance. The differences of these results from the previously reported trends are discussed in relation to the unique current patterns in our study area and the phylogenetic constraints of species-specific responses to a warming environment.     

Suitability of estuarine nursery zones for juvenile weakfish (Cynoscion regalis): effects of temperature and salinity on feeding,growth and survival

Juvenile weakfish, Cynoscion regalis (Bloch and Schneider, 1801), exhibit significant spatial diffrences in growth rate and condition factor among estuarine nursery zones in Delaware Bay. The potential influence of temperature and salinity on the suitability of estuarine nursery areas for juvenile weakfish was investigated in laboratory experiments by measuring ad libitum feeding rate, growth rate and gross growth efficiency of juveniles collected in Delaware Bay in 1990 (40 to 50 mm standard length; 1.4 to 2.1 g) in 12 temperature/salinity treatments (temperatures: 20, 24, 28°C; salinities: 5, 12, 19, 26 ppt) representing conditions encountered in different estuarine zones during spring/summer. Feeding rates (FR) increased significantly with temperature at all salinities, ranging from 10 to 15% body wt d^-1 at 20°C to 33–39% body wt d^-1 at 28°C. Specific growth rates (SGR) ranged from 1.4 to 9.4% body wt d^-1 (0.3 to 1.5 mm d^-1) and gross growth efficiencies (K ₁) varied from 13.6 to 26.4% across temperature/salinity combinations. Based on nonlinear multiple regression models, predicted optimal temperatures for SGR and K ₁ were 29 and 27°C, respectively. Salinity effects on SGR and K ₁ were significant at 24 and 28°C where predicted optimal salinity was 20 ppt. At these warmer temperatures, SGR and K ₁ were significantly lower at 5 than at 19 ppt despite higher FR at 5 ppt. Therefore, maximum growth rate and growth efficiency occurred under conditions characteristic of mesohaline nurseries. This finding is consistent with spatial patterns of growth in Delaware Bay, implying that physicochemical gradients influence the value of particular estuarine zones as nurseries for juvenile weakfish by affecting the energetics of feeding and growth. Laboratory results indicate a seasonal shift in the location of physiologically optimal nurseries within estuaries. During late spring/early summer, warmer temperatures in oligohaline areas permit higher feeding rate and faster growth compared to mesohaline areas. By mid-late summer, spatial temperature gradients diminish and mesohaline areas provide more suitable physicochemical conditions for growth rate and growth efficiency whereas oligohaline areas become energetically stressful. Substantial mortality occurred at 5 ppt and 28°C, providing additional evidence that oligohaline conditions are stressful during late summer. Furthermore, juveniles provided a choice among salinities in laboratory trials preferred those salinities which promoted higher growth rates. The extensive use of oligohaline nurseries by juvenile weakfish despite the potential for reduced growth rate and growth efficiency suggests this estuarine zone may provide a substantial refuge from predation.     

Contribution of Urban Expansion and a Changing Climate to Decline of a Butterfly Fauna

Butterfly populations are naturally patchy and undergo extinctions and recolonizations. Analyses based on more than 2 decades of data on California's Central Valley butterfly fauna show a net loss in species richness through time. We analyzed 22 years of phenological and faunistic data for butterflies to investigate patterns of species richness over time. We then used 18–22 years of data on changes in regional land use and 37 years of seasonal climate data to develop an explanatory model. The model related the effects of changes in land‐use patterns, from working landscapes (farm and ranchland) to urban and suburban landscapes, and of a changing climate on butterfly species richness. Additionally, we investigated local trends in land use and climate. A decline in the area of farmland and ranchland, an increase in minimum temperatures during the summer and maximum temperatures in the fall negatively affected net species richness, whereas increased minimum temperatures in the spring and greater precipitation in the previous summer positively affected species richness. According to the model, there was a threshold between 30% and 40% working‐landscape area below which further loss of working‐landscape area had a proportionally greater effect on butterfly richness. Some of the isolated effects of a warming climate acted in opposition to affect butterfly richness. Three of the 4 climate variables that most affected richness showed systematic trends (spring and summer mean minimum and fall mean maximum temperatures). Higher spring minimum temperatures were associated with greater species richness, whereas higher summer temperatures in the previous year and lower rainfall were linked to lower richness. Patterns of land use contributed to declines in species richness (although the pattern was not linear), but the net effect of a changing climate on butterfly richness was more difficult to discern. Contribución de la Expansión Urbana y un Clima Cambiante a la Declinación de la Fauna de Mariposas     

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Invasive Species

Abstract:  Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed independently, although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects of climate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. Climate change is expected to result in warmer water temperatures, shorter duration of ice cover, altered streamflow patterns, increased salinization, and increased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways by which non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to new areas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood of new species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently prevent survival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climate change will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatory effects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change, new prevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to control invasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable conditions. Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions, some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influence how aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions.     

Experimental evidence of a risk-sensitive reproductive allocation in a long-lived mammal

When reproduction competes with the amount of resources available for survival during an unpredictable nonbreeding season, individuals should adopt a risk-sensitive regulation of their reproductive allocation. We tested this hypothesis on female reindeer (Rangifer tarandus), which face a trade-off between reproduction and acquisition of body reserves during spring and summer, with autumn body mass functioning as insurance against stochastic winter climatic severity. The study was conducted in a population consisting of two herds: one that received supplementary winter feeding for four years while the other utilized natural pastures. The females receiving additional forage allocated more to their calves. Experimental translocation of females between the herds was conducted to simulate two contrasting rapid alterations of winter conditions. When females receiving supplementary feeding were moved to natural pastures, they promptly reduced their reproductive allocation the following summer. However, when winter conditions were improved, females were reluctant to increase their reproductive allocation. This asymmetric response to improved vs. reduced winter conditions is consistent with a risk-averse adjustment in reproductive allocation. The ability of individuals to track their environment and the concordant risk-sensitive adjustment of reproductive allocation may render subarctic reindeer more resilient to climate change than previously supposed.     

Long-term trends in the Australasian gannet (Morus serrator) population in Australia: the effect of climate change and commercial fisheries

The Australasian gannet (Morus serrator) population has increased considerably over the past century, both in New Zealand and Australia. Since 1980, the population in Australian waters has increased threefold, from 6,600 breeding pairs to approximately 20,000 pairs in 1999-2000, a rate of 6% per year. Reasons for the increase in the Australasian gannet population are poorly understood; here we consider the possible effects of recent fluctuations in climatic and oceanographic conditions, and changes in major local commercial fisheries. A significant trend towards more frequent, and stronger, El Niño Southern Oscillation events, warmer summer sea surface temperatures in Bass Strait, increased annual catches and catch per unit effort in the Victorian pilchard (Sardinops sagax) fishery and potential increased discarding of fisheries bycatch may account for at least some of the observed increase in the Australasian gannet population. The potential interactive effects of these factors on prey distribution and abundance and consequently on gannet numbers are discussed.