Solar radiation synthetic series for power purchase agreements

The present paper proposes a methodology based on the implementation and assessment of autoregressive (AR) solar radiation models for generating synthetic series and providing guidance on bidding strategies for power purchase agreements. The work considered conventional and periodic AR models with different lag orders, assessing the models against real solar radiation measurements. The synthetic series generation process developed 1000 1-year monthly solar radiation scenarios that were later employed for simulating electric energy production and power purchase agreement models. This application allowed one to evaluate the risk associated with the energy supply security, supporting bidding strategies in energy auctions. A real study case is also illustrated in detail, referring to a spot in the Brazilian best irradiance area.

     

Performance Testing of a Multimetals Continuous Emissions Monitor

ABSTRACT

A prototype instrument, designed for continuous monitoring of hazardous air pollutant metal emissions in the stack gases of waste incinerators and industrial furnaces, has undergone a performance evaluation that included a relative accuracy test audit. The test results confirmed the instrument's ability to accurately measure stack gas metal concentrations and thus validate the applicability of the candidate technique for compliance assurance monitoring for the specific source involved. The analytical accuracy of this system, documented during the recent test exercise, represents a significant improvement in performance relative to that previously achieved, and can be attributed with certainty to the recent implementation of a shrouded nozzle sampling system. By reducing deposition losses of particulate matter in the extracted stack gas stream to acceptable levels, presentation of a more representative sample stream to the elemental analyzer has been accomplished. The present paper discusses the design and operation of the multimetals continuous emissions monitor (MMCEM), the shrouded nozzle sampling system, and the results of recent performance testing.     

Demonstrating Effectiveness of Passive Radon-Resistant New Construction

ABSTRACT

Fifty percent of homes tested for radon in Rock Island County, IL, have radon levels above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) action guideline of 4 picoCuries per liter (pCi/L) of air. Therefore, the county is classified by the EPA as Zone 1 on the EPA's Map of Radon Potential. Radon-resistant new construction (RRNC) strategies for new homes are recommended by the EPA in Zone 1 areas. One city in the county, East Moline, reduced the cost of building permits for contractors volunteering to build new homes incorporating modified passive RRNC. Forty-six of 124 new homes built with passive RRNC in the city were tested during this study. Only 27 of the homes tested were below 4-pCi/L, justifying the importance of testing the system to ensure levels are below the action guideline. To provide additional support to an argument in favor of changing city building codes to the required RRNC, 23 of the homes were also tested with the systems deactivated. After systems were deactivated, 73% of the homes had radon levels above the action guideline. Four homes were sampled for bioaerosols to evaluate if passive RRNC might impact other indicators of poor indoor air quality (IAQ). The results of the research will be discussed here.     

APCA Financial Statements for 1975-1976

Abstract

A wind tunnel study was completed to determine the effects the presence of a parapet and raised intake configurations have on the dilution of a pollutant between a rooftop stack and building intake. This study was the first to address the effects of building parapets and varying intake configurations. A study of this kind is desirable because it is common practice for architects to attempt to hide stacks with the use of a parapet in order to make industrial buildings more aesthetically pleasing. This is done with no thought to the effect it may have on the intended function of the stacks, which is dispersing gases away from the building to avoid contamination of ventilation air.

Three parapet configurations (no parapet and two different parapet heights) and two intake configurations (flush and raised) were investigated. The relative effects of the parapets and the raised intake configurations were also compared and contrasted for five stack heights, two stack locations, and four intake locations.

The parapets were found to produce a cavity zone that extends above the building's roof by as much as two times the physical height of the parapet; increasing stack height had little effect on dispersion until the stack extended beyond this cavity region. The independent use of the parapets and raised intake configuration decreased the number of dilutions occurring between stack and intake when compared to the no parapet and flush intake configurations in all cases. Also substantiated in this study is the widely accepted view that the effect of the parapet addition is to decrease the effective stack height by the parapet height itself.

The results of this investigation were then compared to existing wind tunnel-derived empirical models. The models tested were not able to predict the effects of varying stack height and of varying the relative distance between stack and intake on the dilution of a pollutant between stack and intake under the tested configurations.     

Penetration of soil dust through woven and nonwoven fabrics

Abstract

Several types of fabrics were laboratory‐tested for their effectiveness in worker protection to pesticide‐laden dust encountered in the agricultural environment. Of the applied <100 mesh dust, penetrations through knitted jersey and woven fabrics were greater than 87% and less than 5.8%, respectively. Treatment of woven fabrics with fluorocarbon polymers curtailed penetration by greater than 60%. Nonwoven fabrics allowed less than 0.5% dust penetration. Parathion mixed with 100‐mesh sieved dust resulted in increasing “ppm”; levels with decreasing particle size; extent of parathion conversion to paraoxon was independent of particle size for the sandy loam dust used.     

Impact of Microenvironmental Nitrogen Dioxide Concentrations on Personal Exposures in Australia

ABSTRACT

Indoor and outdoor NO₂ concentrations were measured and compared with simultaneously measured personal exposures of 57 office workers in Brisbane, Australia. House characteristics and activity patterns were used to determine the impacts of these factors on personal exposure. Indoor NO₂ levels and the presence of a gas range in the home were significantly associated with personal exposure. The time-weighted average of personal exposure was estimated using NO₂ measurements in indoor home, indoor workplace, and outdoor home levels. The estimated personal exposures were closely correlated, but they significantly underestimated the measured personal exposures. Multiple regression analysis using other nonmeasured microenvironments indicated the importance of transportation in personal exposure models. The contribution of transportation to the error of prediction of personal exposure was confirmed in the regression analysis using the multinational study database.     

Factors Influencing the Variability of SO2 Concentrations in Istanbul

ABSTRACT

The correlation between sulfur dioxide (SO₂) concentrations measured at the European and Asian sides of Istanbul and meteorological parameters is investigated using principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple regression analysis techniques. Several meteorological parameters are selected to represent the atmospheric conditions during two winter periods: 1993–1994 and 1994–1995. Six principal components are found to explain the majority of the observed meteorological variability. Surface pressure, 850-mb temperature, and surface zonal (east-west) and meridional (north-south) winds show high loadings on separate factors identified by PCA. We seek dominant meteorological parameters that control the SO₂ levels at each monitoring station. Several multiple regression analysis models are fitted to the data from each monitoring station using six principal components and previous day SO₂ concentrations as independent variables.

Results suggest that the most important parameters, highly correlated with SO₂ concentrations in the Istanbul metropolitan area, are atmospheric pressure and surface zonal and meridional winds. These components have more influence on the determination of the air pollution levels at the Asian side than at the European side.     

Adapting a geographical information system-based water resource management to the needs of the Romanian water authorities

Background, aim, and scope

The need for global and integrated approaches to water resources management, both from the quantitative and the qualitative point of view, has long been recognized. Water quality management is a major issue for sustainable development and a mandatory task with respect to the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive as well as the Swiss legislation. However, data modelling to develop relational databases and subsequent geographic information system (GIS)-based water management instruments are a rather recent and not that widespread trend. The publication of overall guidelines for data modelling along with the EU Water Framework Directive is an important milestone in this area. Improving overall water quality requires better and more easily accessible data, but also the possibility to link data to simulation models. Models are to be used to derive indicators that will in turn support decision-making processes. For this whole chain to become effective at a river basin scale, all its components have to become part of the current daily practice of the local water administration. Any system, tool, or instrument that is not designed to meet, first of all, the fundamental needs of its primary end-users has almost no chance to be successful in the longer term.

Materials and methods

Although based on a pre-existing water resources management system developed in Switzerland, the methodological approach applied to develop a GIS-based water quality management system adapted to the Romanian context followed a set of well-defined steps: the first and very important step is the assessment of needs (on the basis of a careful analysis of the various activities and missions of the water administration and other relevant stakeholders in water management related issues). On that basis, a conceptual data model (CDM) can be developed, to be later on turned into a physical database. Finally, the specifically requested additional functionalities (i.e. functionalities not provided by classical commercial GIS software), also identified during the assessment of needs, are developed. This methodology was applied, on an experimental basin, in the Ialomita River basin.

Results

The results obtained from this action-research project consist of a set of tangible elements, among which (1) a conceptual data model adapted to the Romanian specificities regarding water resources management (needs, data availability, etc.), (2) a related spatial relational database (objects and attributes in tables, links, etc.), that can be used to store the data collected, among others, by the water administration, and later on exploited with geographical information systems, (3) a toolbar (in the ESRI environment) offering the requested data processing and visualizing functionalities. Lessons learned from this whole process can be considered as additional, although less tangible, results.

Discussion

The applied methodology is fairly classical and did not come up with revolutionary results. Actually, the interesting aspects of this work are, on the one hand, and obviously, the fact that it produced tools matching the needs of the local (if not national) water administration (i.e. with a good chance of being effectively used in the day-to-day practice), and, on the other hand, the adaptations and adjustments that were needed both at the staff level and in technical terms.

Conclusions

This research showed that a GIS-based water management system needs to be backed by some basic data management tools that form the necessary support upon which a GIS can be deployed. The main lesson gained is that technology transfer has to pay much attention to the differences in existing situations and backgrounds in general, and therefore must be able to show much flexibility. The fact that the original objectives could be adapted to meet the real needs of the local end-users is considered as a major aspect in achieving a successful adaptation and development of water resources management tools. Time needed to setup things in real life was probably the most underestimated aspect in this technology transfer process.

Recommendations and perspectives

The whole material produced (conceptual data model, database and GIS tools) was disseminated among all river basin authorities in Romania on the behalf of the national water administration (ANAR). The fact that further developments, for example, to address water quantity issues more precisely, as envisaged by ANAR, can be seen as an indication that this project succeeded in providing an appropriate input to improve water quality in Romania on the long term.

     

A Study of the Association between Daily Mortality and Ambient Air Pollutant Concentrations in Pittsburgh,Pennsylvania

ABSTRACT

We have studied the possible association of daily mortality with ambient pollutant concentrations (PM₁₀, CO, O₃, SO₂, NO₂, and fine [PM_{2 5}] and coarse PM) and weather variables (temperature and dew point) in the Pittsburgh, PA, area for two age groups—less than 75, and 75 and over—for the 3-year period of 1989-1991. Correlation functions among pollutant concentrations show important seasonal dependence, and this fact necessitates the use of seasonal models to better identify the link between ambient pollutant concentrations and daily mortality. An analysis of the seasonal model results for the younger-age group reveals significant multicollinearity problems among the highly correlated concentrations of PM₁₀, CO, and NO₂ (and O₃ in spring and summer), and calls into question the rather consistent results of the single- and multi-pollutant non-seasonal models that show a significant positive association between PM₁₀ and daily mortality. For the older-age group, dew point consistently shows a significant association with daily mortality in all models. Collinearity problems appear in the multi-pollutant seasonal and non-seasonal models such that a significant, positive PM₁₀ coefficient is accompanied by a significant, negative coefficient of another ambient pollutant, and the identity of this other pollutant changes with season. The PM₂₅ data set is half that of PM₁₀. Identical-model runs for both data sets reveal instability in the pollutant coefficients, especially for the younger age group. The concern for the instability of the pollutant coefficients due to a small signal-to-noise ratio makes it impossible to ascertain credibly the relative associations of the fine- and coarse-particle modes with daily mortality. In this connection, we call for caution in the interpretation of model results for causal inference when the models use fully or partially estimated PM values to fill large data gaps.     

Further water solubility determinations of insecticidal compounds

Abstract

The aqueous solubility of 39 insecticidal and related compounds was determined at 20±1.5°C, using a previously described shaking and centrifugation method. Fenamiphos, fenthion and methi‐dathion produced values substantially less than those reported in the literature whereas, aminocarb, diazinon, dicapthon, pirimiphos‐ethyl and pirimiphos‐methyl gave solubilities substantially greater than reported literature values.     

A GIS-based evaluation of the effect of decontamination on effective doses due to long-term external exposures in Fukushima

Despite the enormous cost of radiation decontamination, there has been almost no quantitative discussion on how much it would reduce the long-term external radiation exposure in the Evacuation Zone and Planned Evacuation Zone (restricted zone) in Fukushima. The aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of decontamination and return options and to identify important parameters for estimating the long-term cumulated effective dose (CED) during 15, 30 and 70 year period using data on land-use, population and decontamination in the restricted zone (about 1100 km²) in Fukushima.     

Laboratory testing of a continuous emissions monitor for hydrochloric acid

Continuous monitoring of exhaust flue gas has become a common practice in power plants in response to Federal Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) standards. Under the current rules, hydrochloric acid (HCl) is not continuously measured at most plants; however, MATS standards have been proposed for HCl, and tunable diode laser (TDL) absorption spectroscopy is one method that can be used to measure HCl continuously. The focus of this work is on the evaluation and verification of the operation performance of an HCL TDL over a range of real-world operating environments. The testing was conducted at the University of California at Riverside (UCR) spectroscopy evaluation laboratory. Laboratory tests were conducted at three separate temperatures, 25ºC, 100ºC, and 200ºC, and two distinct moisture levels for the enhanced temperatures, 0%, (2 tests) and 4%, over a concentration range from 0 ppmv to 25 ppmv-m at each of the elevated temperatures. The results showed good instrument accuracy as a function of changing temperature and moisture. Data analysis showed that the average percentage difference between the ammonia concentration and the calibration source was 3.33% for varying moisture from 0% to 4% and 2.69% for varying temperature from 25 to 100/200ºC. An HCl absorption line of 1.742 μm was selected for by the manufacturer for this instrument. The Hi Tran database indicated that CO₂ is probably the only major interferent, although the CO₂ absorption is very weak at that wavelength. Interference tests for NO, CO, SO₂, NH₃, and CO₂ for a range of concentrations typical of flue gasses in coal-fired power plants did not show any interference with TDL HCl measurements at 1.742 μm. For these interference tests, CO₂ was tested at a concentration of 11.9% concentration in N₂ for these tests. Average precision over the entire range for all 10 tests is 3.12%.

Implications: The focus of this study was an evaluation of the operation performance of a tunable diode laser (TDL) for the measurement of hydrochloric acid (HCl) over a range of real-world operating environments. The results showed good instrument accuracy as a function of changing temperature from 25ºC to 200ºC and moisture from 0% to 4%. Such as an instrument could be used for continuous monitoring of exhaust flue gas in power plants once the Federal Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) standards have been fully implemented.     

A Qualitative Approach to Evaluating the Anticipated Reliability of a Photochemical Air Quality Simulation Model for a Selected Application

ABSTRACT

Photochemical air quality simulation models are now used widely in evaluating the merits of alternative emissions control strategies on spatial scales from metropolitan to sub-continental. Greatly varying levels of resources have been available to support modeling, from relatively comprehensive databases and evaluation of performance to a paucity of aerometric data for developing model inputs. Where data are sparse, many alternative outcomes are consistent with the knowledge at hand. Where performance evaluation is inadequately supported, the probability of error may be high. In each instance, uncertainties may be large when compared with the signal of interest, and thus confidence in the reliability of the model as an estimator of future air quality may come into question.

This paper proposes a qualitative procedure for assessing whether a particular application of a modeling system is likely to be potentially unreliable, suggesting that either (1) modification and further evaluation is needed, if supportable, prior to adoption for regulatory application; or (2) the model should not be used if improvement is not supportable. The procedure is proposed for use by policy-makers, staffs of public agencies, air quality managers, environmental staffs of industrial organizations, and other interested parties. The proposed use of the procedure is (1) to assess, a priori, whether a proposed application is likely to be judged questionable or unacceptably uncertain in outcome; and (2) to provide, a posteriori, a basis for judging quickly the likely quality of model performance. The procedure is presented with tropospheric ozone as the pollutant of concern. With adjustments, however, the procedure should be applicable for particu-late matter and other pollutants of interest.     

The human sex odds at birth after the atmospheric atomic bomb tests,after Chernobyl,and in the vicinity of nuclear facilities

Background, aim, and scope  

Ever since the discovery of the mutagenic properties of ionizing radiation, the possibility of birth sex odds shifts in exposed human populations was considered in the scientific community. Positive evidence, however weak, was obtained after the atomic bombing of Japan. We previously investigated trends in the sex odds before and after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident. In a pilot study, combined data from the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Norway, Poland, and Sweden between 1982 and 1992 showed a downward trend in the sex odds and a significant jump in 1987, the year immediately after Chernobyl. Moreover, a significant positive association of the sex odds between 1986 and 1991 with Chernobyl fallout at the district level in Germany was observed. Both of these findings, temporality (effect after exposure) and dose response association, yield evidence of causality. The primary aim of this study was to investigate longer time periods (1950–2007) in all of Europe and in the USA with emphasis on the global atmospheric atomic bomb test fallout and on the Chernobyl accident. To obtain further evidence, we also analyze sex odds data near nuclear facilities in Germany and Switzerland.     

Characterization of Solid-Phase Microextraction and Gas Chromatography for the Analysis of Gasoline Tracers in Different Microenvironments

Abstract

Gasoline tracers were collected on solid-phase microextraction (SPME) fibers and analyzed by capillary gas chromatography with photoionization detector (GC/PID). This was part of a larger study to quantify personal exposure to motor vehicle gasoline evaporative and combustive emissions in high-end exposure microenvironments (MEs). The SPME fiber selected for this application was a 75-µm carboxen/polydimethylsiloxane. Sequential 10-min samples were collected for measurement of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and ortho-, meta-, and para-xylene in different MEs in Atlanta, GA, in summer 2002 and Reno, NV, in spring 2003. Field calibrations were performed with certified gas standards in 1-L Tedlar bags for varying concentrations and exposure times. SPME detection limits were ～0.2 ppbv with a precision of 3–17% and accuracy of 30%. A dynamic system was designed for temperature and relative humidity calibrations, with corrections for the effects of these variables performed when necessary. SPME data compared satisfactorily with integrated canister samples, continuous PID, and field portable mass spectrometer data.     

Variation of surface ozone in Campo Grande,Brazil: meteorological effect analysis and prediction

The effect of meteorological variables on surface ozone (O₃) concentrations was analysed based on temporal variation of linear correlation and artificial neural network (ANN) models defined by genetic algorithms (GAs). ANN models were also used to predict the daily average concentration of this air pollutant in Campo Grande, Brazil. Three methodologies were applied using GAs, two of them considering threshold models. In these models, the variables selected to define different regimes were daily average O₃ concentration, relative humidity and solar radiation. The threshold model that considers two O₃ regimes was the one that correctly describes the effect of important meteorological variables in O₃ behaviour, presenting also a good predictive performance. Solar radiation, relative humidity and rainfall were considered significant for both O₃ regimes; however, wind speed (dispersion effect) was only significant for high concentrations. According to this model, high O₃ concentrations corresponded to high solar radiation, low relative humidity and wind speed. This model showed to be a powerful tool to interpret the O₃ behaviour, being useful to define policy strategies for human health protection regarding air pollution.     

The fate of methoxychlor in soils and transformation by soil microorganisms

Abstract

Methoxychlor was found to be sufficiently persistant in soil and its residues were present even 18 months after the soil treatment. Saprophytes, fungi and actinomyces were unaffected by varying concentrations of methoxychlor, azotobacter however was susceptable. Soil strains isolated did not utilize methoxychlor as a sole carbon source except for 9 cultures belonging to the genera Bacillus, Acineto‐bacter and Rhodococcus which carried out the complete dechlorination, demethylation and splitting of one of methoxychlor aromatic rings. Anaerobic conditions were more favorable for methoxychlor biodegradation by soil and pure microbial cultures.