Adaptation of land management in the Mediterranean under scenarios of irrigation water use and availability

Meeting the growing demand for food in the future will require adaptation of water and land management to future conditions. We studied the extent of different adaptation options to future global change in the Mediterranean region, under scenarios of water use and availability. We focused on the most significant adaptation options for semiarid regions: implementing irrigation, changes to cropland intensity, and diversification of cropland activities. We used Conversion of Land Use on Mondial Scale (CLUMondo), a global land system model, to simulate future change to land use and land cover, and land management. To take into account future global change, we followed global outlooks for future population and climate change, and crop and livestock demand. The results indicate that the level of irrigation efficiency improvement is an important determinant of potential changes in the intensity of rain-fed land systems. No or low irrigation efficiency improvements lead to a reduction in irrigated areas, accompanied with intensification and expansion of rain-fed cropping systems. When reducing water withdrawal, total crop production in intensive rain-fed systems would need to increase significantly: by 130% without improving the irrigation efficiency in irrigated systems and by 53% under conditions of the highest possible efficiency improvement. In all scenarios, traditional Mediterranean multifunctional land systems continue to play a significant role in food production, especially in hosting livestock. Our results indicate that significant improvements to irrigation efficiency with simultaneous increase in cropland productivity are needed to satisfy future demands for food in the region. The approach can be transferred to other similar regions with strong resource limitations in terms of land and water.     

基于EBK插值预测和GDM模型的襄州区耕地土壤重金属时空分布及来源变化分析

为探讨襄州区重金属空间格局时空变化及其来源变化,于2009年11月和2019年11月分别在襄州区耕地土壤采集395个和326个土壤样品,测得两年铬（Cr）、铅（Pb）、砷（As）、汞（Hg）和镉（Cd）含量,采用经验贝叶斯克里金法（EBK）得出两年5种土壤重金属含量空间格局情况及变化量分布情况,并利用地理探测器模型（GDM）计算19种环境因子和5种重金属含量q解释力并比较两年变化情况.结果表明,与2009年相比,2019年襄州区Cr、Pb、Hg和As这4种土壤重金属含量整体趋于降低,Cd整体含量增加;2019年襄州区土壤重金属含量空间分异情况较2009年趋于复杂,Pb、Hg和Cd在南部、Hg在中部市区及周边地区也表现为含量增加;各元素向北及西北部地区表现为含量降低.2019年自然因子和污染企业距离对5种土壤重金属含量单因子解释力均有所下降,且单因子主控下对其含量的影响力显著性降低,而人类活动因子尤其是居民点用地距离、道路距离、污染企业用地和环境因子对土壤重金属元素的叠加影响力增强.说明2019年土壤重金属来源变化由以结构性因素为主要影响因素趋于复杂,污染企业的排放对重金属元素影响力降低,而人类活动对重金属含量影响增加.     

紫色土区不同土地利用类型土壤紧实度特征

以重庆市沙坪坝区杨家沟小流域为例,选取6种土地利用类型样地进行试验,研究紫色土区不同土地利用类型的土壤紧实度特征,为土壤质量评价和土地资源管理提供参考。通过多重比较检验分析土壤紧实度随土壤深度的变化规律以及不同土地利用类型下的差异,结果表明:(1)6种土地利用类型的土壤紧实度值为竹林地园地灌木林地林地草地旱地;(2)6种土地利用类型的土壤紧实度均随土壤深度增加而增大,但各类之间变化差异较大;(3)同土层而言,0~10cm土层旱地与其它5种土地利用类型的土壤紧实度有显著性差异(p0.05),但各种土地利用类型间底层土壤紧实度差异不明显;不同土层而言,0~10cm土层与其它3个土层有显著性差异(p0.05),由于0~10cm土层受耕作、踩踏等外力扰动与其它土层差异较大。10~20cm土层与其它3个土层也有显著性差异(p0.05)。其它各土层之间差异不明显。不同土地利用类型的土壤紧实度差异较大,主要与人类活动扰动程度有关。     

黄土高原沟壑区小流域土壤NO3--N的积累特征及其影响因素

以小流域为单元,分析了黄土高原沟壑区化肥投入、土壤NO₃^--N积累及其影响因素。结果表明,化肥投入是流域土地利用结构调整的重要支撑和保证因素,而流域土地利用结构的变化进一步拉动了化肥的投入。目前施肥条件下,流域内坡地果园存在显著的NO₃^--N积累,其积累量高于农田土壤,应作为今后重点监测对象。农田系统中,小麦或玉米连作土壤中NO₃^--N的积累最显著,通过作物之间的轮作可显著降低剖面中NO₃^--N的深层积累。土壤NO₃^--N的积累是小流域治理过程中产生的问题,与流域氮肥投入、氮肥吸收利用和土壤水分演变密切相关。     

流域尺度氮流失的环境风险评价

采用故障树及概率分析方法,对九龙江流域氮的流失风险进行定性与定量评价.通过建立故障树定性分析了九龙江流域氮流失的主要风险来源.结果表明,氮流失风险大小主要与肥料施用、畜禽养殖废物的处置及农田耕作有关.在GIS技术支持下,通过土地利用、土壤等数据的计算,结合田间调查结果与专家意见,确定故障树基本故障事件概率,继而对氮流失风险进行定量评价.最佳管理措施模拟评价结果表明,降低施肥水平,在养殖场周边建立植被过滤带,增加河岸林截留入河沉积物等措施可以有效降低氮流失风险,在九龙江流域可以考虑优先实施.      

Adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture: an analysis of potential synergies

As climate changes due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, agriculture will be one of the key human activities affected. Projections show that while overall global food production in the coming decades may keep pace with the food requirements of a growing world population, climate change might worsen existing regional disparities because it will reduce crop yields mostly in lands located at lower latitudes where many developing countries are situated. Strategies to enhance local adaptation capacity are therefore needed to minimize climatic impacts and to maintain regional stability of food production. At the same time, agriculture as a sector offers several opportunities to mitigate the portion of global greenhouse gas emissions that are directly dependent upon land use, land-use change, and land-management techniques. This paper reviews issues of agriculture and climate change, with special attention to adaptation and mitigation. Specifically, as adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture are implemented to alleviate the potential negative effects of climate change, key synergies need to be identified, as mitigation practices may compete with modifications to local agricultural practices aimed at maintaining production and income. Under future climate and socio-economic pressures, land managers and farmers will be faced with challenges in regard to selecting those mitigation and adaptation strategies that together meet food, fiber and climate policy requirements.     

Runoff and sediment losses from 27 upland catchments in Southeast Asia: Impact of rapid land use changes and conservation practices

Rapid changes in upland farming systems in Southeast Asia generated predominantly by increased population pressure and ‘market forces’ have resulted in widespread land degradation that has been well documented at the plot scale. Yet, the links between agricultural activities in the uplands and downstream off-site effects remain largely unknown because of the difficulties in transferring results from plots to a larger scale. Many authors have thus pointed out the need for long-term catchment studies. The objective of this paper is to summarize the results obtained by the Management of Soil Erosion Consortium (MSEC) over the last 5 years from 27 catchments in five countries (Indonesia, Laos, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam). The purpose of the study was to assess the impacts of cultivation practices on annual runoff and erosion rates. Initial surveys in each catchment included topography, soils and land use. Monitoring included climatic, hydrologic and erosion (total sediment yield including bed load and suspended sediment load) data, land use and crop yields, and farmers’ income. In addition, new land management options were introduced through consultations with farmers and evaluated in terms of runoff and erosion. These included tree plantations, fruit trees, improved fallow with legumes, maize intercropped with legumes, planted fodder, native grass strips and agro-ecological practices (direct sowing and mulch-based conservation agriculture). Regressions analyses showed that runoff during the rainy season, and normalized runoff flow coefficient based on erosive rainfall during the rainy season (rainfall with intensity exceeding 25 mm h⁻¹) increase with the percentage of the catchment covered by maize. Both variables decrease with increasing soil depth, standard deviation of catchment slope (that reflects terrain roughness), and the percentages of the catchment covered by fallow (regular and improved), tree plantations and planted fodder. The best predictors of sediment yield were the surface percentages of maize, Job's tears, cassava and footpaths. The main conclusions generated from this study were: (i) soil erosion is predominantly influenced by land use rather than environmental characteristics not only at the plot scale but also at the catchment scale; (ii) slash-and-burn shifting cultivation with sufficiently long rotations (1 year of cultivation, 8 years of fallow) is too often unjustly blamed for degradation; (iii) in its place, continuous cropping of maize and cassava promotes high rates of soil erosion at the catchment scale; (iv) conservation technologies are efficient in reducing runoff and total sediment yield at the catchment scale; (v) the adoption of improved soil management technologies by upland farmers is not a function of the degree of intensification of their farming system and/or of their incomes. The results suggest that if expansion of maize and cassava into already degraded upland systems were to occur due to increased demand for biofuels, there is a risk of higher runoff and sediment generation. A failure to adopt appropriate land use management strategies will result in further rapid resource degradation with negative impacts to downstream communities.     

南海区畜禽养殖污染现状及防治对策

研究了南海区畜禽养殖污染现状,结果表明畜禽养殖污染已成为一个重要的污染源,其排放进入水体的COD、NH3-N量已超过工业污水的排放量,但小于城镇生活污水的排放量;南海区畜禽粪便土地负荷警报值为1.06,呈现出较严重的环境压力水平。同时提出了畜禽养殖业污染的防治对策,以促进畜禽养殖业环境与经济的协调发展。     

规模化养殖畜禽粪便量估算及环境影响研究

利用规模化养殖的空间信息,结合面积比例法,获取畜禽养殖统计数据.在此基础上,进行了畜禽粪便量和纯养分估算及对土壤环境影响研究,辅以土壤耕层和亚耕层中有效磷含量及变化来阐释畜禽粪便对土壤环境污染的影响.以北京市大兴区为例,对该区规模养殖畜禽粪便量进行估算,评估了其对环境的影响,验证了该方法的准确性、合理性.结果表明,大兴区2005年耕地畜禽粪便磷养分负荷为93.72kg/hm2,其中规模化养殖耕地畜禽粪便磷养分负荷为57.56kg/hm2.耕层及亚耕层的有效磷含量远高于背景值,且变异系数分别为72.66%和79.12%,富集系数(耕层/亚耕层)为2.31,变异系数和富集系数进一步说明了规模化养殖畜禽粪便对土壤环境污染影响程度.     

地块尺度城市土地质量地球化学调查方法:以雄安新区起步区为例

以土地质量地球化学调查评价成果服务于城市土地资源精准管护为目标,选择中国城镇化探路者的雄安新区起步区为研究对象,采用差异化分类布设样点,开展不同采样密度条件下地块尺度土壤元素空间插值精度、地块（图斑）插值精度和地球化学预测评价等级准确度的定量评估研究.结果表明：①采用差异化分类布设样点方法使平面上随机分布的区域地球化学量变值在每一个地块（图斑）都有明确的量值反映,能满足城市土地资源精准管护对单一地块（图斑）具有质量属性的基本需求;②研究区土壤元素指标空间变异性以轻中度为主;其中Hg、Pb、Cd、Cu、Zn、N、P和Se受人类生产活动影响,具有较高的空间变异性;③相同采样密度条件下,元素含量空间变异性越大,其空间插值精度和图斑插值精度越低;同一种元素插值精度受采样密度的影响,但采样密度的增大并不一定能够识别土壤元素含量的结构性连续组分;区内土壤环境本底清洁,重金属含量低于GB15618-2018标准,其插值评价等级和实测评价等级结果基本一致;养分指标N、P和K含量区间变化大,受人为扰动和空间变异性等因素影响,其预测等级和实测等级差异较大;④采用16点·km^-2的采样密度开展地块尺度城市土地质量地球化学调查评价可以满足研究区及类似地区城市土地资源精准管控的需求.     

基于灌区尺度的聚落与水土资源空间耦合关系研究——以张掖绿洲为例

灌区是构成绿洲的最基本单元,在人工灌渠系统的强烈控制与引导下,渠系的供水量决定了灌溉面积(水浇地)的大小,而水浇地的规模又决定人口的承载能力,因此,水-土-人系统存在着高度的相互依存性和共生性。论文应用空间自相关分析模型的Getis-Ord G_i^*指数,选取张掖39 个灌区中的3 个灌区(新坝、平川、盈科)分别代表沿山独立灌区、绿洲边缘区灌区和绿洲中腹灌区进行分析。结果表明,新坝灌区受独立水系和水资源保证程度的深刻影响,渠系、水浇地和居民点自干渠向外,由热点地区逐渐转变为冷点地区,居民点、干渠、水浇地具有明显的空间聚集特征,渠系对水浇地分布具有显著的控制和引导作用。平川灌区受黑河干流走向的影响,居民点、水浇地表现出明显的核心-外围特征,黑河沿岸干渠对居民点和水资源具有较强的基础性作用。盈科灌区由于水资源丰富,保证程度高,渠系对于水浇地和居民点的控制作用反而低于其他两类灌区。     

基于统计数据的滨海地区污染物入海通量计算方法研究与应用——以天津市为例

基于统计数据构建滨海地区点源（工业废水和生活污水）和非点源（农用土地径流和畜禽养殖）污染物通量计算方法,依据地理信息将污染物排放量划分至入海河流,引入入海系数表征污染物从排放到入海过程中的衰减,从而得到各河流的污染物入海通量。应用该方法计算了2000－2014年天津市总氮和总磷的入海通量,结果显示:天津市年均总氮入海量为9 940.7 t,年均总磷入海量为663.4 t;2012年总氮和总磷入海量均达到最大值,分别为12 304.1 t和830.0 t;2000年总氮和总磷入海量均为最小值,分别为7 604.1 t和494.0 t;天津市入海河流中,永定新河的污染物入海通量占比最大;总磷入海通量以农用土地径流和畜禽养殖来源较多,总氮入海通量的来源中点源和非点源各占一半;从污染来源区域分布来看,各区县污染物入海通量综合反映了人口数量、经济发展和污染治理等因素。保护天津市近岸海域环境,消减污染物入海通量,应该着重控制滨海新区的工业废水污染、海河区域的生活污水污染、永定新河区域的农用土地径流污染和畜禽养殖污染。     

The conversion of overgrazed pastures to almond orchards and alfalfa cropping systems may favor microbial indicators of soil quality in Central Iran

Land use changes may have a major influence on soil quality that is important in sustaining ecosystem productivity. Yet, the effects of these changes on soil quality are not well understood, particularly in poor heterogeneous pastures overgrazed by sheep. The aim of this study was to determine the short-term response of soil quality indicators to changes in land use from permanent pastures overgrazed to almond orchards and then to alfalfa cropping systems occurring in Saman plain, Central Iran. Soil quality indicators were evaluated in four land use systems including permanent pastures (PP) overgrazed by sheep, pastures converted to almond orchards (AO) for more than 45 years, almond orchards converted to alfalfa fields for 5 years (FA) and almond orchards converted to alfalfa fields for 2 years (TA). Composite soil samples from each of the four random replicates of the land use systems were sampled to a depth of 30 cm, and analyzed for soil bulk density, total N, total organic C, wet aggregate stability, C mineralization, microbial biomass C, and phosphatase activities. Land use changes (i.e. conversion of pastures to almond orchards and then to alfalfa fields) resulted in significant increases in soil bulk density, and total organic C and N contents. Similarly, total organic C and N pools were far greater in TA and FA compared to PP and AO land use systems. The soil porosity and aggregate stability (MWD) in PP and AO land use systems were significantly greater than those in TA and FA land use systems. Carbon mineralization and microbial biomass C and the activity of acid and alkaline phosphatases were substantially higher in the alfalfa fields than those in overgrazed pastures and almond orchards. The microbial metabolic quotient (qCO₂) increased in alfalfa fields, although the increases were marginal. It would appear that (1) the conversion of poor pastures to alfalfa cropping systems favors soil microbial properties, (2) microbial properties are the most sensitive soil quality indicators responding positively to short-term changes in land use. It is also concluded that improvement in soil quality and enhanced biological activity in alfalfa fields demonstrated the gradual resilience of the poor and overgrazed pastures once converted to a fast growing and N₂ fixing legume crop.     

新平县生态民环境现状调查及评价

采用单因子评价和综合评价相结合的方法对新平县域的生态环境质量进行评价，根据本地区的自然生态特点，综合相关自然和社会因素，确定森林覆盖率，水土流人率，土地垦植率，人口密度等九项指标作为评价标准，评价表明，新平县域的生态环境质量为良，主要的生态问题是坡面积过大，人口密度偏高，应采取不同的措施加以解决。     

Econometric analysis of the determinants of adoption of alley farming by farmers in the forest zone of southwest Cameroon

Slash-and-burn agriculture continues to expand in many parts of the forest zone of Cameroon. One alternative land use to slash-and-burn system is alley farming. This paper quantifies, using an econometric model, the factors determining farmers’ adoption and use of alley farming variants in southwest of Cameroon, based on a survey of 156 farmers in 11 villages in the region.The analysis showed that male farmers are more likely to adopt than women. Adoption is higher for farmers with contacts with extension agencies working on agroforestry technologies. Adoption is higher for farmers belonging to farmers’ groups. Adoption is lower for farmers in areas with very high population pressure, as farmers in such areas may have greater labor productivity from use of less labor intensive natural resource management technologies like chemical fertilizers. Adoption is higher for farmers in areas facing fuel wood scarcity. Farmers have made adaptations to the conventional alley farming technology recommended by researchers, the most significant adaptation being the introduction of fallow periods into the system. Farmers use alley farming as a land use option, not as a replacement for the slash-and-burn system, since land supply is still relatively elastic. Achieving increased impact with alley farming variants requires effective targeting. Results showed that econometric modeling using farmer and village characteristics, socioeconomic and institutional variables can lead to more effective targeting to farmers and locations where higher adoption rates may occur.     

塔里木盆地北缘绿洲4种土地利用方式土壤有机碳组分分布特征及其与土壤环境因子的关系

为明确干旱区土壤有机碳各组分分布状况,进而合理地开发与利用,解决土地利用效率低下问题,以塔里木盆地北缘盐碱地、天然林、沙地、30 a棉田这4种不同土地利用方式土壤为研究对象,分析不同土地利用方式土壤有机碳、微生物量碳、可溶性有机碳、易氧化有机碳的分布状况,结合冗余分析探索其与土壤环境因子的关系.结果表明,SOC在天然林表现出最高值(1.92 g·kg~(-1)),在沙地随土层增加而增加,在其他土地利用类型整体呈现下降趋势;MBC在天然林表现出最高水平,且随土层深度增加而降低,在其他土地利用类型无明显变化趋势.DOC含量最高值和最低值分别出现在天然林和30 a棉田的80~100 cm层(分别为143.23 mg·kg~(-1)和30.00 mg·kg~(-1)),在天然林中随土层深度增加而增加,在盐碱地中随土层深度增加而降低且不同土层含量均表现出显著差异(P0.05).EOC含量在不同土地利用类型和不同土层中未表现出明显规律.将各有机碳组分进行敏感性分析得出:MBC对不同土层最为敏感,DOC对土地利用变化最为敏感.通过冗余分析得出各有机碳组分与土壤含水量、全氮、p H呈正相关关系,与土壤容重、电导率呈负相关关系.土壤环境因子对各碳组分含量的重要性排序为:土壤容重含水量电导率土壤氮p H,即容重和含水量为影响干旱区有机碳组分的主要因子.     

Climate change scenarios to facilitate stakeholder engagement in agricultural adaptation

To prepare agricultural systems for climate change, scientists need to be able to effectively engage with land managers and policy makers to explore potential solutions. An ongoing challenge in engagement is to distil the complexity of climate-change-management-change interactions in agro-ecological systems to identify responses that are most important for adaptation planning. This paper presents an approach for selecting climate change scenarios to provide a focal point for engaging with stakeholders to evaluate adaptation options and communicate assessment outcomes. We illustrate how scenarios selected with the approach can be used by evaluating climate change impacts and an adaptation option for livestock industries in the north-east Australian rangelands. Climate change impacts on forage production, animal liveweight gain and soil loss are found to track projected climate changes in four pasture communities; increasing by up to 50% and declining by up to 110% in response to doubled atmospheric carbon-dioxide (CO₂), 4°C warming, and +20% to ?40% changes in mean annual rainfall. The effectiveness of reducing grazing pressure as an adaptation option shows a similar response; resulting in higher forage production (up to 40%), animal liveweight gains (up to 59%) and gross margins (up to 40%), and reduced soil erosion (down by 91%) per hectare relative to the baseline management. The results show that a few key scenarios may be selected to represent the range of global climate model (GCM) projections for use in assessing and communicating impacts and adaptation; simplifying the assessments and allowing limits to the effectiveness of adaptation options to be explored. The approach provides a framework for capturing and communicating trends in climate change impacts and the utility of options, which are required for successful engagement of stakeholders in finding viable adaption responses.     

Numerical study of regional environmental carrying capacity for livestock and poultry farming based on planting-breeding balance

In consideration of the need to maintain planting-breeding balance, this article examines the capacity of the soil in Putian City, Fujian Province to absorb livestock and poultry excreta, and computes the environmental carrying capacity for livestock and poultry farming (ECCLPF) in each district of the city in terms of the fertility characteristics of the soil in the city, as well as its mix of crops cultivated and farming methods. On the basis of the computations, this work proceeds to classify the alarm grades of the city’s environmental carrying capacity for livestock and poultry framing, and assess the environmental impact of the livestock and poultry farming industry. The results of our study indicate that, the city’s ECCLPF ranges from 8.27 to 23.23 heads per ha when computed on the basis of nitrogen, and from 5.79 to 24.53 heads per ha when computed on the basis of phosphorus. A comparison between our research findings and the existing farming scale in Putian reveals that, in certain parts of the city, ECCLPF is overburdened to varying degrees. Specifically, Chengxiang District is severely overburdened, Hanjiang District and Meizhou Island have a level of overburdening between virtual overburdening and significant overburdening, Licheng District is virtually overburdened, and Xiuyu, Xianyou, and Bei’an Districts have not exceeded their environmental carrying capacity and therefore have varying levels of potential for growth.     

西藏生态系统碳蓄积动态的土地利用/覆被变化归因分析

论文利用InVEST模拟了2001—2010年西藏生态系统碳蓄积动态变化,并从土地覆被类型转移和土地覆被碳密度变化两方面对碳蓄积动态进行归因分析。研究发现：1）2001—2010年西藏碳蓄积增加0.5×10⁸ t。藏西北、藏东南碳蓄积变化较大,藏中、藏北相对稳定。牧区碳蓄积增加,农区、半农半牧区减少。水源涵养区和防风固沙区碳蓄积增幅大,生物多样性保护区和特色产业区下降。草原碳蓄积持续增长,森林、稀疏植被碳蓄积稳中有降,灌丛碳蓄积下降。2）草地、林地等碳密度高的地类面积增加,灌丛、稀疏植被等碳密度低的地类面积减少,土地覆被类型转移增强了碳蓄积功能,对碳蓄积变化的贡献率为269%。3）森林等碳密度较高的地类碳密度下降明显,稀疏植被等碳密度较低的地类碳密度略有增加,碳密度变化对碳蓄积变化的贡献率为-169%。     

Assessment of carbon leakage in multiple carbon-sink projects: a case study in Jambi Province,Indonesia

Rehabilitation of degraded forest land through implementation of carbon-sink projects can increase terrestrial carbon (C) stock. However, carbon emissions outside the project boundary, which is commonly referred to as leakage, may reduce or negate the sequestration benefits. This study assessed leakage from carbon-sink projects that could potentially be implemented in the study area comprised of 11 sub-districts in the Batanghari District, Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. The study estimates the probability of a given land use/cover being converted into other uses/cover, by applying a logit model. The predictor variables were: proximity to the center of the land use area, distance to transportation channel (road or river), area of agricultural land, unemployment (number of job seekers), job opportunities, population density and income. Leakage was estimated by analyzing with and without carbon-sink projects scenarios. Most of the predictors were estimated as being significant in their contribution to land use cover change. The results of the analysis show that leakage in the study area can be large enough to more than offset the project’s carbon sequestration benefits during the period 2002–2012. However, leakage results are very sensitive to changes of carbon density of the land uses in the study area. By reducing C-density of lowland and hill forest by about 10% for the baseline scenario, the leakage becomes positive. Further data collection and refinement is therefore required. Nevertheless, this study has demonstrated that regional analysis is a useful approach to assess leakage.