The World Programme of Action: a new paradigm for population policy. The Cairo Conference

There has been considerable national and international debate over the past two years on population-related issues. Women have sought to affirm their right to control fertility and to have access to health services while criticizing current population policies and programs. A new paradigm for population policy has emerged from the debate, one which focuses upon providing broadly defined reproductive health services and acknowledges women's reproductive rights and their need for empowerment. This new population policy is embodied in the World Program of Action (WPOA) adopted September 1994 at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo, Egypt. WPOA is the main document emerging from the ICPD. It was developed and negotiated by participating governments during three preparatory committee meetings leading up to the conference and at ICPD itself, where it was adopted. The WPOA is slated for approval by the UN General Assembly during its current session. The WPOA is evidence of how effective women were in making women's rights and health the focus of an international document. The author discusses politics at the ICPD, the WPOA, funding the WPOA's implementation, the road ahead, and the power of women's strategies.     

Empowering women. The solution to a global crisis

Norway's Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland holds a medical degree from the University of Oslo and a Master's degree in Public Health from Harvard University. She served as Norway's Minister of the Environment during 1974-79, and was elected to the Norwegian parliament in 1977. Brundtland is currently chairperson of the World Commission on Environment and Development with ten years of experience as a physician and twenty years as a politician. An edited version of her keynote address to the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development is presented. The Minister's experience has taught her that improved life conditions, a greater range of choices, access to unbiased information, and true international solidarity are the signs of human progress. She stresses the need to empower people, educate them, care for their health, and provide them with equal opportunity to achieve economically. Available combined resources need to be used more efficiently through a reformed and better coordinated UN system, policies must be changed, the role and status of women strengthened, safe, comprehensive reproductive health services provided, and measures taken to achieve a balance between population size and sustainable development in keeping with available global resources.     

World Population Projections for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios

A survey is made of the latest world population projections issued by the United Nations, World Bank, U.S. Census Bureau, and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Medium variants from all the organizations show excellent agreement with respect to many features of future world population growth. It appears that little would be gained by obtaining additional regional projections made by governments or organizations other than those listed above. In general, the new range of population projections that are candidates for forthcoming IPCC emissions scenarios are narrower and lower than the previous IPCC IS92 population range: a reflection of updated information on the decline of fertility rates in developing countries and the incorporation of a plausible correlation between mortality rates and fertility rates within the IIASA ‘rapid’ and ‘slow’ demographic transition variants. Comments are made on the schematic approach of forecasting CO2 emissions using multiplicative identities such as ‘IPAT’ (impact/emissions = population × affluence × technology). Although the unqualified IPAT model suggests that emissions should scale linearly with population, a number of caveats to this exist, the most important of which may be factor interactions. A brief review is made of conventional thinking about interactions between population growth and economic development. Correlation studies and theory suggest that population growth has a neutral or, at most, weak negative effect on economic growth. Conversely, it is well established that higher per capita incomes are well correlated with lower fertility and mortality rates in developing countries. Therefore, a plausible first-order relationship worth exploring in the next generation of IPCC scenarios is that scenarios with higher average economic growth rates in the developing world should be associated with lower fertility and mortality rates there. Calculations are presented that illustrate the effect this negative correlation could have had on the range of the older IS92 emission scenarios, assuming that all other factors are unchanged. Finally, some policy issues concerning population and global warming are reviewed in connection with the IPCC’s omission of population policy discussion in its 1995 Second Assessment Report.     

弹药与爆炸品的安全标准体系

详细综述了联合国、美国、北约和中国等国家和国际组织有关弹药和爆炸品的安全标准文件体系,包括制定目的、适用范围、主要内容和版本历程等,并对比分析了各安全标准文件体系有关爆炸品分级程序和试验方法的特点及其相关性。该研究对我国军事工业标准化建设将大有裨益。     

“Educating the educators” as a strategy for enhancing education on cleaner production

During the last ten years, much progress has been made in initiating Cleaner Production and related Preventive Environmental Management (PEM) training activities within many countries. Much of this work was facilitated through special National Cleaner Production Centers, established through national support or through the facilitation of organizations such as UNEP, UNIDO, The World Bank, and other regional development organizations. Most earlier PEM training was predominantly short-term and was not embedded within a deeper academic framework. Although much has been accomplished as a result of such training, deeper and broader educational programs are needed.The Faculty at IIIEE at Lund University in Sweden decided to develop an innovative “Educate-the-Educators” (ETE) Program on Cleaner Production and on related PEM approaches. This paper summarises the goals, objectives and results of the first ETE program at IIIEE. The three-week educational program was attended by 32 educators from 22 different countries. This included participants from China, India, Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, New Zealand, South Africa, Zambia, Ethiopia, Bahrain, Turkey, Jordan, The Czech Republic, Hungary, Russia, Mexico, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico, Trinidad–Tobago, Brazil, Argentina, and Colombia. According to the participants, the intensive educational program was very useful in preparing them to integrate Cleaner Production components into the course(s) and curricula in their home institutions. The participants are now actively engaged in initiating follow-up activities within their academic institutions.     

The Importance of Human Ecology at the Threshold of the Next Millennium: How Can Population Growth Be Stopped?

 Ecology is defined as the set of complex interactions between the biotic and abiotic environments. Human ecology concerns principally the population ecology "only" of Homo sapiens, but it also includes all aspects of global ecology because humans are the most important species. Human demography is characterized by a recent decline in mortality and fertility rates. These demographic transitions have largely been completed in industrialized countries, but not in the 140 developing countries. Approximately 100 countries are following the same demographic pattern as industrialized countries, however with a time delay of several generations. China has effectively reduced its population increase by means that would be unacceptable in Western democracies. Some 44 developing countries still show increasing population growth and no detectable demographic transition in birth rate. Thus one part of the world shows limited (and, in the long run, shrinking) population growth, and another continues with a strong increase. All populations are limited in their development by their sustainability by their environment, for example, food and energy resources, and the extent of pollution which the use of these resources produces. It is argued that in the case of human population the limits of sustainability have already been reached with the 6 billion humans alive today, since at least 20% of these suffer from hunger, natural resources are overexploited, and biodiversity is threatened. In the coming 200 years it is more likely that the total population will substantially oscillate rather than approach the predicted 12 billion. The most important goal of human ecology should therefore be to slow population growth as far as possible.     

Asian Urban Environment and Climate Change: Preface

The Asian Network on Climate Science and Technology (www.ancst.org), in collaboration with Tsinghua University, held a conference on environmental and climate science, air pollution, urban planning and transportation in July 2015, with over 40 Asian experts participating and presentation. This was followed by a meeting with local government and community experts on the practical conclusions of the conference. Of the papers presented at the conference a selection are included in this special issue of Journal of Environmental Science, which also reflects the conclusions of the Paris Climate meeting in Dec 2015, when the major nations of the world agreed about the compelling need to reduce the upward trend of adverse impacts associated with global climate change. Now is the time for urban areas to work out the serious consequences for their populations, but also how they should work together to take action to reduce global warming to benefit their own communities and also the whole planet!     

中国矿产资源贸易网络演化

第四次工业革命催生全球新一轮产业竞争,矿产资源国内外供需形势正在发生显著的变化,国际竞争日益激烈,成为大国资源博弈的焦点。现阶段我国已经成为世界最大的矿产进口国和重要的矿产出口国,了解矿产资源进口来源地和出口市场网络直接关系到生产活动和经济发展。基于此,本文基于2001—2016年UN Comtrade世界矿产资源贸易数据,分析中国矿产资源贸易网络特征及其演化过程。研究发现：（1）2001—2016年间,中国在世界矿产资源贸易网络中的地位显著提高,这与中国持续增长的矿产资源贸易量和贸易国家数量有直接的相关关系;（2）中国矿产出口逐渐展现“市场分散”的策略,而进口逐渐从“多来源产品集中”演化为“少来源产品分散”的策略;（3）友好的国家关系和国家间互动频率会降低制度差异所带来的不确定性,而且友好的国家关系会降低矿产贸易的交易成本。基于结论提出如下建议：（1）中国矿产出口可以采取进一步分散市场的策略,避免出口到少数国家被压价的情况;（2）矿产进口可以考虑在原有进口国家中进一步多进口新的矿产资源产品,并拓展新的矿产来源国家,以满足日益增长的矿产资源需求,同时避免国家关系波动带来的贸易摩擦;（3）在我国矿产资源安全方面,中国要考虑到国家间制度差异所带来的贸易成本,并通过增加海外矿产资源投资、维护好国家间关系和促进交流来稳定矿产资源贸易。     

The future of populous economies. China and India shape their destinies

Population in 1995 was about 1.2 billion in China and about 935 million in India. Populations are expected to reach respectively 1.5 billion and 1.4 billion by 2025. These two countries now and in the future will average about 35% of total world population. This article compares the current and expected demographic, economic, and environmental conditions in China and India. How these countries manage their growth, poverty, and population will affect the region and the world as well as each nation. China's fertility is now below replacement but population momentum will increase population by about 300 million/year. India's fertility is 3.6 children/woman and India will add 450 million/year. China's population over 60 years old will reach 20% by 2020, while India's will be under 15% in 2025. China will be almost 55% urban by 2025 from 30% in the 1990s, and India will be 45% urban from 27% urban. China's economic growth has averaged over 9%/year compared to India's 5% annual growth during the 1980s and the economic decline during the 1990s. China has 12% of rural population living below the poverty line and India has about 33% of its total population impoverished. China's life expectancy is about 10 years higher. Under-five mortality is 43/1000 live births in China and 131/1000 in India. Poverty-related diseases are still high in India. China is a homogenous population with an authoritarian regime. India is a democracy with a large nongovernmental community and a heterogenous population. India has about 33% of the land area of China but over twice the agricultural land per person. About 50% of China's land and only 25% of India's land is irrigated. Water resources are problems in northern China and much of India. Air and water pollution are problems in both countries. Differences in the population-environment-development context are discussed in terms of the effects of poverty, the constraints posed by development, and the environmental impact of rising per capita consumption. It is concluded that India faces the more difficult future.     

Education for sustainable development and the Young Masters Program

Education is the foundation for achieving sustainable development. The United Nations Decade of Education for Sustainable Development declared from January 2005 to December 2014 demands a concerted effort to expand environmental education around the world. The Young Masters Program (YMP) is an international education course, which utilises the Internet to connect students, teachers, and tutors in different parts of the world. The YMP is designed for 15–18 year old students and for their teachers. It was developed by and continues to be coordinated by the International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics (IIIEE) at Lund University. The focus of the Young Masters Program is preventive environmental strategies in the context of sustainable development. More than 2300 students and teachers in 109 countries have participated in the Young Masters Program since 1998.     

Global knowledge networking for site specific strategies: The International Conference on Biodiversity and Society

The UNESCO/Columbia University International Conference on Biodiversity and Society was held at Columbia University in the city of New York in May 2001. The conference was jointly organized by the UNESCO Ecological Sciences Division and the Columbia Earth Institute of Columbia University, with the goal of identifying a research agenda and methodology providing solid science as a foundation for field engagement that would influence social and political strategies for the long-term stewardship and conservation of culturally and biologically significant sites. The conference brought together leading environmental and social scientists, managers of UNESCO Biosphere Reserves, high-level policy-makers from over 20 developed and developing countries, journalists, and leading institutions, including private corporations, environmental NGOs, United Nations agencies, and international lending institutions. The focus was on local level phenomena and responses, as well as on the potential and limitations of the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve concept for coordinating biodiversity conservation with human security. The conference was built around a set of nine case studies prepared by teams of policy makers and researchers.     

Impacts of Global Climate Change on Mediterranean Agrigulture: Current Methodologies and Future Directions. An Introductory Essay

Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.     

中国湖泊细菌群落的生物地理分布格局及驱动机制——基于文献数据的统计分析

为阐明中国湖泊细菌群落的生物地理分布格局及驱动机制,基于已发表文献,收集了228个湖泊的浮游或沉积物细菌门水平分类数据和环境因子数据进行分析.结果表明:中国湖泊浮游细菌群落的优势类群为变形菌门(Proteobacteria,35.92%)、放线菌门(Actinobacteria,25.03%)和拟杆菌门(Bacteroidetes,10.77%),沉积物中的优势类群为变形菌门(Proteobacteria,40.37%)、绿弯菌门(Chloroflexi,8.74%)和拟杆菌门(Bacteroidetes,8.55%).中国湖泊浮游细菌距离衰减程度显著低于沉积物细菌;湖泊细菌群落结构在北方、南方、青藏高原的空间差异显著,北方水体及沉积物中细菌的距离衰减模式均不显著,南方水体中显著但沉积物中不显著,青藏高原水体及沉积物中均显著.浮游细菌优势类群中除Proteobacteria外,Actinobacteria (南方>北方>青藏高原)和Bacteroidetes (青藏高原>北方>南方)的丰度在三个地区均具有显著差异;沉积物细菌优势类群Proteobacteria (北方>南方>青藏高原)、Chloroflexi (南方>北方>青藏高原)、Bacteroidetes (青藏高原>北方>南方)的丰度在三个地区均具有显著差异.影响北方湖泊浮游细菌群落分布的主要环境因子是溶解性有机碳,南方是溶解氧,青藏高原是硝酸盐氮;影响北方湖泊沉积物细菌群落分布的主要环境因子是总氮和pH值,南方是总磷,青藏高原是pH值.空间扩散限制与环境筛选作用共同塑造了中国湖泊细菌的生物地理分布格局.扩散限制对浮游细菌的影响小于沉积物细菌,对青藏高原湖泊浮游及沉积物细菌影响最大,对北方湖泊浮游及沉积物细菌影响最小;环境筛选作用对青藏高原湖泊浮游及沉积物细菌影响最大,对南方湖泊浮游细菌及北方湖泊沉积物细菌影响较小.     

对美国、日本和中国预警机制现状的评述

突发公共事件是当今世界各国面临的共同威胁，但是，人类在防灾救灾方面仍然存在着一些缺陷。面对突发公共事件危机各国各政府都有自己的预警机制。尤其是一些发达国家建立了较为完善的预警机制，比如美国、日本等国的预警机制对于一些发展中国家建立预警机制有着重要的借鉴意义。中国在应对突发公共事件方面虽然存在着一些缺陷，但是，在建立应对突发公共事件预警机制方面，也进行了积极的探索和实践。     

Electricity demand in a changing climate

Our interest is in electricity demand and the temperature aspects of climate change. Electricity consumption is of interest both from the perspectives of adaptation to climate change and emission reductions. We study the relationship between European electricity consumption and outdoor temperature and other variables, using a panel data set of 31 countries. Apart from providing a rare quantitative window into adaptation, the study contributes demand system parameters with respect to price and income. The results suggest that weather has a statistically significant effect on electricity demand, with effects that are of plausible magnitude. In a simulation of climate change for the next 100 years—other factors held constant—we find that the demand for heating will decrease in Northern Europe while the demand for cooling will increase in Southern Europe. In countries like Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain, and Turkey the net effect of increased cooling outweighs decreased heating consumption whereas in most of Europe the opposite holds. The largest estimated partial impact is 20%, which predicted increase in adaptive consumption for Turkey and decrease in adaptive consumption for Latvia. Estimated elasticities with respect to income and price are 0.8 and minus 0.2 respectively: plausible in the light of the literature. As a discussion item, we add that electricity consumption changes due to temperature change likely will be small compared to those due to other factors, such as changes in income, demography and technology. The study does not include effects of climate change other than through electricity consumption.     

Achieving forest carbon information with higher certainty: A five-part plan

International negotiations on the inclusion of land use activities into an emissions reduction system for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have been partially hindered by the technical challenges of measuring, reporting, and verifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the policy issues of leakage, additionality, and permanence. This paper outlines a five-part plan for estimating forest carbon stocks and emissions with the accuracy and certainty needed to support a policy for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, forest conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (the REDD-plus framework considered at the UNFCCC COP-15) in developing countries. The plan is aimed at UNFCCC non-Annex 1 developing countries, but the principles outlined are also applicable to developed (Annex 1) countries. The parts of the plan are: (1) Expand the number of national forest carbon Measuring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems with a priority on tropical developing countries; (2) Implement continuous global forest carbon assessments through the network of national systems; (3) Achieve commitments from national space agencies for the necessary satellite data; (4) Establish agreed-on standards and independent verification processes to ensure robust reporting; and (5) Enhance coordination among international and multilateral organizations.     

CDM in the Kyoto Negotiations:

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has its origins in the decade of UNFCCC negotiations. ‘Joint implementation’ and ‘activities implemented jointly pilot’ opened the door for the project-based mechanisms between developed and developing countries. The US proposal of the Joint Implementation in the Kyoto Protocol negotiations was almost identical with CDM approved in Kyoto; however, a detour around the Clean Development Fund (CDF) concept raised by Brazil in the negotiations catalyzed the mutual understanding on the win-win nature of the concept of joint implementation.CDM has been played an important role to bridge the developed and developing countries in its development process initiated as the joint implementation in the UNFCCC, and can lead to the cooperative future in the implementation stage starting from the year 2003, including the development of future commitments beyond 2013. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

碳达峰国家达峰特征与启示

基于世界银行数据库1960～2020年数据,采用Mann-Kendall(MK)检验和Spearman's Rho(SR)检验,对全球219个国家及地区的CO2排放及社会经济数据进行趋势分析.结果表明:MK检验和SR检验得出一致结论,共有42个国家和1个经济体联盟实现碳达峰,46个国家处于碳达峰平台期.多数国家碳达峰时...     

Air Quality Action Plans: early indicators of urban local authority practice in England

The delivery of improved local ambient air quality in the UK has emerged through the implementation of the Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland [DETR, Welsh Office, Scottish Office, Department of the Environment for Northern Ireland, The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, CM 4548, London, The Stationery Office, 2000] by the air quality management (AQM) regime. Local authorities now have the responsibility to undertake a review and assessment of air quality in their area and to identify locations where health-based objectives are likely to be exceeded. If relevant public exposure exists, an air quality management area must be designated. Air Quality Action Plans (AQAPs) provide the mechanism by which local authorities, in collaboration with national agencies and others, will state their intentions for working towards the air quality objectives through the powers they have available and by collaboration with other bodies who are in the position of implementing solutions to their air quality hot spots. This management regime will require a new way of local authority working, involving not only local authority joint working but also regional collaboration and co-operation with outside agencies and authorities such as health authorities, regulators of industry and highways managers. Management aspects of the AQM process have been investigated through the data collection from a series of questionnaire surveys. It is argued that the extent to which a local authority is able to show integration of its air quality management responsibilities is an indicator of their capability for delivering AQAPs. Although local authorities appear to be making moves towards a more integrated approach to managing environmental issues, there are still significant gaps in joint working identified through questionnaire surveys and case studies undertaken by the authors. Some recommendations for the successful implementation of AQAPs are also included.     

Degrowth Declaration of the Paris 2008 conference

This is the Degrowth Declaration issued from the first international conference on socially sustainable economic degrowth for ecological sustainability and social equity held in April 18–19 2008, Paris.