化工园区区域定量风险评价及其应用研究

讨论了化工园区域定量风险评价的基本程序和评价指标,提出了定量风险计算的个人风险和社会风险计算模型.利用SAFETI软件对碳一分公司进行定量风险计算,得出碳一分公司区域的个人风险等值线图和社会风险曲线图.依据计算结果分析碳一分公司化工园区域的风险现状.     

Cost-based fire risk assessment in natural gas industry by means of fuzzy FTA and ETA

Fire is the most prevalent accident in natural gas facilities. In order to assess the risk of fire in a gas processing plant, a fault tree analysis (FTA) and event tree analysis (ETA) has been developed in this paper. By utilizing FTA and ETA, the paths leading to an outcome event would be visually demonstrated. The framework was applied to a case study of processing plant in South Pars gas complex. All major underlying causes of fire accident in a gas processing facility determined through a process hazard analysis (PHA). Fuzzy logic has been employed to derive likelihood of basic events in FTA from uncertain opinion of experts. The outcome events in event tree has been simulated by computer model to evaluate their severity. In the proposed methodology the calculated risk has the unit of cost per year which allows the decision makers to discern the benefit of their investment in safety measures and risk mitigation.     

城市天然气工程环境风险评价

结合广州、深圳、东莞、佛山等城市的天然气工程情况,对城市天然气工程的环境风险评价进行了讨论,并采用穆尔哈斯(Moorhowse)和普里恰特(Prichard)提出的热辐射预测模式和爆炸冲击波预测模式对城市天然气工程进行了风险评价.结果表明,如果发生天然气泄漏并引起火灾,假设在10 min以内,城市门站、调压站和城市高中压管道的火球对建筑物和设备的严重损害范围( A 级)最远距离分别为35.8 m、18.0 m和28.7 m,爆炸冲击波严重损害范围( C1 级)分别为距事故处54.8 m、27.8 m和44.4 m.最后从城市门站、调压站选址及输气管道选线、安全防范距离、作业过程中的风险控制与管理以及事故应急对策四方面提出了风险事故的防范措施与对策.     

陕京二线输气管道风险预评价

采用EST法对建设中的陕京二线输气管道进行了风险评价,得到了管道的高风险区段.通过对评价结果的分析,得出了造成各管段风险值较高的原因,并提出了相应控制措施.     

New methodologies for security risk assessment of oil and gas industry

The oil and gas industry forms a vital and large part of the economy of any country. It provides crucial support to transport, manufacturing and energy sectors, produces valuable exports and provides huge employment. This industry along with fertilizer plants, petrochemical plants, etc., which handle hazardous chemicals, are potential targets for deliberate actions by terrorists, criminals and disgruntled employees. The process industries face different levels of threats. It is imperative to analyze the entire threat scenario before taking steps to counter it, otherwise each and every threat will have to be treated as most severe, thus resulting in a huge and wasteful expenditure.The Security Risk Factor Table (SRFT) and a Stepped Matrix Procedure (SMP) have been developed to assess the security risk of oil and gas industry as well as the other chemical process industries. While the SRFT deals with the effects of individual threats, the SMP deals with the cascading/domino effects which a lone, low probability event can cause. A case study of a refinery has been performed to show the application of the ideas presented.     

城市天然气管道半定量风险评估方法研究

以实现天然气管道风险评估资源的合理分配，确定天然气管道定量风险评估的重点为目标，改进燃气管道风险评估方法的肯特模型，探求城市天然气管道的半定量风险评估方法；分析了城市埋地天然气管道失效可能性与失效后果的影响因子，并研究其评分标准；分别给出了城市天然气管道失效可能性与失效后果的等级划分标准，并运用半定量风险矩阵进行燃气管道单元的风险初步排序，以确定高风险管道单元；对城市天然气管道进行半定量风险评估，可为识别管道沿线高风险后果区域、风险动态排序、风险预警及制定事故应急预案等提供科学依据和方法指导，具有重要的工程应用价值。     

A reliability data bank for the natural gas distribution industry

This study is an extended and updated version of those already reported. It illustrates the results obtained from ordinary maintenance operations on six large sets of urban mains, with a view to optimizing the establishment of a reliability data bank. The study illustrates the extreme individuality of gas distribution plants and the need for a sector data bank.     

Computational fluid dynamics analysis of liquefied natural gas dispersion for risk assessment strategies

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations have been conducted for dense gas dispersion of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The simulations have taken into account the effects of gravity, time-dependent downwind and crosswind dispersion, and terrain. Experimental data from the Burro series field tests, and results from integral model (DEGADIS) have been used to assess the validity of simulation results, which were found to compare better with experimental data than the commonly used integral model DEGADIS. The average relative error in maximum downwind gas concentration between CFD predictions and experimental data was 19.62%.The validated CFD model was then used to perform risk assessment for most-likely-spill scenario at LNG stations as described in the standard of NFPA 59A (2009) “Standard for the Production, Storage and Handling of Liquefied Natural Gas”. Simulations were conducted to calculate the gas dispersion behaviour in the presence of obstacles (dikes walls). Interestingly for spill at a higher elevation, e.g., tank top, the effect of impounding dikes on the affected area was minimal. However, the impoundment zone did affect the wind velocity field in general, and generated a swirl inside it, which then played an important function in confining the dispersion cloud inside the dike. For most cases, almost 75% of the dispersed vapour was retained inside the impoundment zone. The finding and analysis presented here will provide an important tool for designing LNG plant layout and site selection.     

Improvement of integrity management for pressure vessels based on risk assessment - A natural gas separator case study

The process of oil and gas processing plant is complex, the types of pressure vessels are rich, and the functions are critical. However, the working medium is mostly untreated medium, and the hazard factors are complex, which poses a threat to the safe production of oil and gas processing plant. Based on PDCA cycle, this paper establishes a six-step links of integrity management for sustainable improvement of pressure vessels. The typical failure modes of pressure vessels are determined, and the fishbone diagram of risk factors under each failure mode is compiled. Risk quantification and classification of pressure vessels based on failure modes (RBFM) is innovatively proposed. Avoiding incalculable failure frequency index, the process quantification of failure possibility is formed according to the development of hazard factors. A failure consequence calculation model based on the leakage affected area was established. Combined with the failure probability level and risk level, the hierarchical inspection strategy for pressure vessels under different failure modes is established. Finally, the method is applied to the natural gas separator of H processing plant. The research results show that RBFM proposed in this paper can meet the requirements for rapid and accurate risk assessment of pressure vessels in oil and gas processing plant. This paper establishes a safe production barrier for the pressure vessel and improves the intrinsic safety of the equipment.     

A fuzzy risk assessment approach for occupational hazards in the construction industry

The techniques in the construction industry have been improved due to the rapid development of science and technology. However, the constructional hazards are not decreased as expected. To reduce or prevent occupational hazards in the construction industry, a fuzzy risk assessment method was proposed to provide a prevention and improvement technique against occupational hazards. This method used two-stage quality function deployment (QFD) tables to represent the relationships among construction items, hazard types and hazard causes. A fuzzy analytic network process (ANP) method was developed to identify important hazard types and hazard causes. Failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) was performed to assess the risk value of hazard causes based on the fuzzy inference approach. The proposed method was applied to a telecom engineering company in southern Taiwan. The performance evaluation result indicated that this method can provide satisfactory risk assessment values of hazard causes and relevant improvement strategies.     

Occupational risk assessment in the construction industry in Iran

Occupational accidents in the construction industry are more common compared with other fields and these accidents are more severe compared with the global average in developing countries, especially in Iran. Studies which lead to the source of these accidents and suggest solutions for them are therefore valuable. In this study a combination of the failure mode and effects analysis method and fuzzy theory is used as a semi-qualitative–quantitative method for analyzing risks and failure modes. The main causes of occupational accidents in this field were identified and analyzed based on three factors; severity, detection and occurrence. Based on whether the risks are high or low priority, modifying actions were suggested to reduce the occupational risks. Finally, the results showed that high priority risks had a 40% decrease due to these actions.     

Shelter-in-place risk assessment for high-pressure natural gas wells with hydrogen sulphide and its application in emergency management

This paper provides a risk assessment method of sheltering in-place for high-pressure natural gas wells with hydrogen sulphide. In this paper, the shelter-in-place risk is estimated by integrating the health consequences of an individual taking one kind of emergency response to the emergency orders of sheltering in place from the emergency decision makers and the probability of the corresponding emergency response action. The probability of the corresponding emergency response action in the proposed method is estimated through the accident probability analysis and the probability analysis of taking a certain response action. The health consequence estimation is based on air exchange rate test of the shelter buildings as well as accident consequence calculation. The evaluation of shelter-in-place risks based on “as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)” guidelines was employed to provide suggestions for emergency management under both normal conditions and off normal conditions. A case study of risk assessment of sheltering in the local residential houses in Xuanhan County of Sichuan Province, China was taken as an example to illustrate the proposed risk assessment process of shelter-in-place and its application in the decision-making process for emergency management.     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

Individual risk analysis of high-pressure natural gas pipelines

Transmission pipelines carrying natural gas are not typically within secure industrial sites, but are routed across land out of the ownership of the pipeline company. If the natural gas is accidentally released and ignited, the hazard distance associated with these pipelines to people and property is known to range from under 20 m for a smaller pipeline at lower pressure to up to over 300 m for a larger pipeline at higher pressure. Therefore, pipeline operators and regulators must address the associated public safety issues.This paper focuses on a method to explicitly calculate the individual risk of a transmission pipeline carrying natural gas. The method is based on reasonable accident scenarios for route planning related to the pipeline's proximity to the surrounding buildings. The minimum proximity distances between the pipeline and buildings are based on the rupture of the pipeline, with the distances chosen to correspond to a radiation level of approximately 32 kW/m². In the design criteria for steel pipelines for high-pressure gas transmission (IGE/TD/1), the minimum building proximity distances for rural areas are located between individual risk values of 10⁻⁵ and 10⁻⁶. Therefore, the risk from a natural gas transmission pipeline is low compared with risk at the building separated minimum distance from chemical industries.     

A fuzzy model for assessing risk of occupational safety in the processing industry

Managing occupational safety in any kind of industry, especially in processing, is very important and complex. This paper develops a new method for occupational risk assessment in the presence of uncertainties. Uncertain values of hazardous factors and consequence frequencies are described with linguistic expressions defined by a safety management team. They are modeled with fuzzy sets. Consequence severities depend on current hazardous factors, and their values are calculated with the proposed procedure. The proposed model is tested with real-life data from fruit processing firms in Central Serbia.     

化工重大危险源区域风险因素的评价与控制

化工事故具有危及社区和环境的特性,评价并有效地控制化工企业区域风险因素是政府安全监管部门的工作重点。针对国家安监总局提出的10项区域风险因素,运用德尔菲法确定了评价因子的权重,提出了区域风险因素评价值的计算模型;以常州市武进区化工企业为例进行了化工企业区域风险因素定量分析,运用休哈特控制图法找出了需要重点监管的企业及其风险因素。     

我国天然气风险及评价方法分析

为有效促进天然气行业朝着更加安全的方向发展,对天然气风险及其相关的风险评价方法进行深入分析,总结出我国天然气开采、运输及使用过程中的输送管道风险、液化天然气风险、输气站场风险、勘探开发风险、钻井工程风险和地下储气库风险,并归纳出这六大类风险相对应的风险评价研究内容、产生风险的原因、风险评价方法等。可以看出,我国天然气的风险评价主要集中在管道风险评价方面,且缺乏系统、详细的统计资料,因此,急需建立相应的数据库,采用多种评价方法相结合,开发天然气风险评价软件和探寻有效的应急救援措施,以利于我国天然气风险管理。     

Pythagorean fuzzy VIKOR-based approach for safety risk assessment in mine industry

Introduction: Underground mining is considered one of the most hazardous industries and is often associated with serious work-related fatalities; this paper addresses job-related hazards and associated risks. Method: A risk assessment approach is proposed (Pythagorean fuzzy environment) and a case study is carried out in an underground copper and zinc mine. Results: Results of the study demonstrate that hazards can be categorized into different risk levels via compromised solutions of the fuzzy approach. Conclusion: The study provides a theoretical contribution by suggesting a Pythagorean fuzzy numbers-based VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (PFVIKOR) approach. Moreover, it contributes to improving overall safety levels of underground mining by considering and advising on the potential hazards of risk management. Practical applications: The proposed approach will improve the existing safety risk assessment mechanism in underground copper and zinc mining.     

石材加工行业尘肺病危害风险评估研究

应用国际采矿与金属委员会风险评估模型（ICMM）评估石材加工行业尘肺病风险。 以20家石材加工企业为研究对象,运用ICMM模型的定量法和矩阵法分别评估4个重点岗位的尘肺病风险,并与粉尘作业分级和文献报道进行结果验证。 结果显示打磨、雕刻、切割和破碎4个重点岗位的总粉尘和呼吸性粉尘浓度均超过职业接触限值,超限倍数范围分别为4.3~85倍和3.1~63.3倍。ICMM定量法判定该4个重点岗位的Ⅲ期矽肺风险均为最高级风险水平（不可容忍）,矩阵法判定该4个重点岗位Ⅲ期矽肺风险也均为最高级水平（高风险）。这些风险评估结果得到生产性粉尘作业分级和文献报道的支持。结论为石材加工行业尘肺病发病风险非常高,ICMM风险评估模型可应用于石材加工行业职业健康风险评估。