质子交换膜燃料电池电站多米诺事故概率和风险研究*

为探究氢能电站火灾爆炸事故发展规律,采用多米诺效应对电站进行事故概率和风险研究,建立氢能电站多米诺效应定量风险分析模型。基于设备受损概率模型与多米诺理论基础,提出氢能电站多米诺效应概率计算方法,并将方法运用到实际案例,结合SAFETI软件对具体多米诺事故场景进行定量计算。研究结果表明:氢能电站易发生多米诺事故,考虑一级多米诺效应后人员潜在死亡概率增加56%。研究结果可为制定氢能电站安全防控措施以及降低火灾爆炸事故对人员和设备的危害提供依据。     

Underground parallel pipelines domino effect: An analysis based on pipeline crater models and historical accidents

This paper focuses on the analysis of the possibility of domino effect in underground parallel pipelines relying on historical accident data and pipeline crater models. An underground pipeline can be considered as safe following an accident with an adjacent gas or liquefied pipeline when it remains outside the ground crater generated. In order to prevent the domino effect in these cases, the design of parallel pipelines has to consider adequate pipeline separations based on the crater width, which is one of the widely used methods in engineering applications. The objective of this work is the analysis of underground petroleum product pipelines ruptures with the formation of a ground crater as well as the evaluation of possible domino effects in these cases. A detailed literature survey has been carried out to review existing crater models along with a historical analysis of past accidents. A FORTRAN code has been implemented to assess the performance of the Gasunie, the Batelle and the Advantica crater models. In addition to this, a novel Accident-Based crater model has been presented, which allows the prediction of the crater width as a function of the relevant design pipeline parameters as well as the soil density. Modifications have also been made to the Batelle and Accident-Based models in order to overcome the underestimation of the crater width. The calculated crater widths have been compared with real accident data and the performance evaluation showed that the proposed Accident-Based model has a better performance compared to other models studied in this work. The analysis of forty-eight past accidents indicated a major potential of underground parallel pipelines domino effect which is proven by two real cases taken from the literature. Relying on the investigated accidents, the crater width was smaller than or equal to 20 m in most cases indicating that the definition of underground pipeline separations at around 10 m would be sufficient to ensure a small probability of the domino effect.     

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故风险量化管理*

为降低危化品相关的化工事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,以化工多米诺事故为研究对象,探讨由初始事故引发1个或多个次生事故的连锁反应机理与风险评估方法。提出应用蒙特卡洛模拟对多米诺事故风险进行动态量化的方法,梳理化工多米诺事故风险的识别、分析、评定、处理全周期管理流程,并以1个天然气压气站为案例,验证基于蒙卡模拟的化工多米诺事故风险量化方法的有效性。结果表明:该方法可以更准确地对化工多米诺事故风险进行定量评估。多米诺事故风险全周期管理流程的梳理能够有效指导化工企业开展安全管理、事故预防等工作。     

博弈论在预防化工园区事故多米诺效应中的应用

针对化工园区内各单元不愿意为预防相邻单元事故多米诺效应进行安全投入的问题,提出采用博弈论分析化工园区内各单元预防事故多米诺效应的投入意愿,将化工园区内2个相邻单元预防事故多米诺效应的关系定义为2人博弈的过程,构建2人博弈的支付函数与支付矩阵,讨论不同参数情形下的纳什均衡点,将实际均衡点与理想均衡点进行比较,判断园区管理者或政府机构是否应当采取相关措施。结果表明:实际化工园区所处的博弈情形与各单元均选择为预防园区事故多米诺效应的投入值有关,不同取值范围的纳什均衡点不同,园区管理者根据均衡点的不同选择相应措施。     

多米诺效应下化工储罐区的脆弱性分析

为有效地减少和控制事故的多米诺效应,对影响事故扩展的关键装置,即脆弱单元的辨识及其有效控制措施进行了研究。根据具体的设计方案,依次选定不同储罐作为初始事故单元,借助ALOHA软件计算各储罐之间热辐射及冲击波相互作用强度的大小,与损伤阈值进行比较,并考虑设备间的协同作用,从而确定可能发生的多米诺事故;运用Probit模型计算事故扩展概率,根据计算结果通过Bayes Server软件建立贝叶斯网络,利用先验概率来进行整体脆弱性分析,从而确定各个方案的安全性;对优选的方案通过后验概率进行单元脆弱性分析,从而确定脆弱单元;在此基础上提出相应的控制措施。通过实例计算验证了该方法的可行性,结果表明,该方法能够在多米诺效应的预防和控制方面有效发挥作用。     

Assessment of risks posed by chemical industries—application of a new computer automated tool maxcred-III

The paper describes the application of a new computer automated tool, developed by us, in the risk analysis of a typical chemical industry engaged in the manufacture of linear alkyl benzene. Using the tool—a comprehensive software package maxcred-III (MAXimum CREDible accident analysis)—nine different scenarios, one for each storage unit, have been studied. It is observed that the accident scenario for chlorine (instantaneous release followed by dispersion) leads to the largest area-under-lethal-impact, while the accident scenario for propylene (CVCE followed by fireball) forecasts the most intense damage per unit area. The accidents involving propylene, benzene, and fuel oil have a high possibility of causing domino/secondary accidents as their destructive impacts (shock waves, heat load) would envelope other storage and process units.Besides demonstrating the utilizability of maxcred-III, this study also focuses attention on the need to bestow greater effort towards risk assessment/crisis management. The authors hope that the study will highlight the severity of the risk posed by the industry and thus generate safety consciousness among plant managers. The study may also help in developing accident-prevention strategies and the installation of damage control devices.     

多米诺效应阈值研究进展

多米诺效应阈值是表征破坏效应相关物理参数的限值,是判断是否会引发多米诺效应的评判准则,是多米诺效应定量评价的开端。在对国内外多米诺效应研究成果分析的基础上,介绍了多米诺效应及其阈值,综述了引发多米诺事故扩张的三种物理效应阈值（即：热辐射阈值、超压阈值和碎片阈值）的研究现状。     

基于多米诺效应的油品储罐区个人风险研究

介绍了多米诺效应的基本原理和多米诺事故发生的概率分析方法。提出在一定条件下进行储罐区风险评价时,多米诺效应对个人风险值的影响不容忽视,并给出了考虑多米诺效应的个人风险计算方法。最后利用开发的个人风险计算软件通过分析计算,给出了某储罐区的个人风险等值线分布图。结果表明,该罐区正北方向相邻的一劳动密集型工厂需搬迁,或采取相应安全保护措施降低风险。该方法考虑了多米诺效应对装置事故发生概率的影响,能提高个人风险计算结果的真实性与准确性。     

多米诺效应的风险分析方法

介绍与分析多米诺效应的相关研究,并针对多米诺效应的定量风险分析,建立了从多米诺场景辨识到后果分析的多米诺效应定量分析方法.通过分析初始事故带来的物理效应对邻近设备的影响,计算了二次设备的损坏概率;分析了多米诺场景,计算了多米诺事故频率,并根据多米诺事故的后果得到个人风险和社会风险曲线.多米诺效应的风险是工业区一个潜在的严重风险,加强多米诺效应的研究对工厂和工业区的安全管理与规划都有重要意义.     

基于多米诺效应的定量风险评价研究

多米诺效应是引发化工重大事故的主要原因之一.本文综合国内外的研究成果,对火灾热辐射、冲击波超压等造成的多米诺效应进行了深入分析,建立基于多米诺效应的定量风险评价模型,其中包括了评价流程、传播概率、阈值距离计算、多米诺效应对事故频率的影响及后果分析的内容.最后利用Matlab7.1计算平台,以汽油储罐进行实例分析,结果表明该方法是一种适用于多米诺效应定量评价的良好方法,能够比较科学、有效的对危险单元进行风险评价,使重大事故风险评价更切合实际,为政府监管部门和化工企业进行事故的控制和预防提供决策技术.     

米诺效应中的多事故点协同作用后果研究

为了研究多米诺效应中多事故点协同作用的后果,将并联系统概率模型运用到贝叶斯概率计算过程中,体现出多事故点协同作用对多米 诺效应传播的概率影响;后果分析部分从人、物、环境3个方面出发,对事故的后果影响以及事故预防提出建议措施。最后运用模型对实例进行 了应用分析,结果表明:多事故点协同作用下储罐的多米诺失效概率增大,罐区危险性增强,可以通过对储罐设置安全屏障等措施,有效的切 断导致事故最大概率的链条。     

The significance of domino effect in chemical accidents

A historical survey was performed on 330 accidents involving domino effect, occurred in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials; only accidents occurred after 1st-January-1961 have been considered. The main features – geographical location, type of accident, materials involved, origin and causes, consequences, domino sequences – were analyzed, with special consideration to the situation in the developing countries and compared to those from other previous surveys. Among the involved substances, LPG was the most frequent one, followed by liquid hydrocarbons. Process plants (38.5% of cases) and storage areas (33%) were the most common settings; 10.6% of past domino accidents occurred in transfer operations. The ratio between “two-step” and “three-step” domino accidents was found to be 6. A specific analysis of the accidents (84) occurred in the 21st century was performed, comparing them with the total set of accidents. Finally, a set of specific recommendations inferred from the results is provided.     

基于贝叶斯网络的事故多级多米诺效应计算方法研究

为了更合理地分析事故风险,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的多级多米诺效应计算方法及其计算步骤,并从个人风险和社会风险2个角度,定量分析了生产安全事故的多级多米诺效应。同时以某企业的2个汽油罐区为例,运用上述方法对其生产安全事故的多米诺效应进行定量计算,并将计算结果与未考虑多米诺效应、仅考虑一级多米诺效应时的计算结果进行比较。研究结果表明:基于贝叶斯网络的计算方法,同时考虑了多级多米诺效应和事故的协同效应,可以使计算的个人风险和社会风险更接近于实际。     

Research on three-dimensional visualization system of Natech events triggered domino accidents in oil-gas depots

Natech events and domino accidents happen worldwide and usually lead to severe consequences, especially in hazardous areas such as Oil-Gas depots. With the continuous development of the Oil-Gas industry and information technology, it is essential to realize the three-dimensional management and monitoring of hazardous substances. To evaluate the consequences caused by Natech events triggered domino accidents (accident chain), a matrix loop method was proposed to calculate the probability and evolution path of the accident chain. The actual layout and the real-time data of the Oil-Gas depot are input into the evaluation method in matrices, thus making the results reliable and updated. Besides, a B/S architecture system is developed to present the evaluation consequences of the proposed method. The three-dimensional visualization effects of natural disasters, technological accidents and the dynamic propagation process of the accident chain are also realized in the system to enhance the user's experience. A system application regarding lightning-triggered domino accidents was carried out to demonstrate the feasibility and rapidity of the proposed evaluation method and perform the system's operation process and visualization effects. The application results show that the system can provide effective decision-making assistance to safety management workers before the accident and guidance for emergency rescue operations during the accident.     

Improved models of failure time for atmospheric tanks under the coupling effect of multiple pool fires

Fire accidents of chemical installations may cause domino effects in atmospheric tank farms, where a large amount of hazardous substances are stored or processed. Pool fire is a major form of fire accidents, and the thermal radiation from pool fire is the primary hazard of domino accidents. The coupling of multiple pool fires is a realistic and important accident phenomenon that enhances the propagation of domino accidents. However, previous research has mostly focused on the escalation of domino accidents induced by a single pool fire. To overcome the drawback, in this study, the failure of a storage tank under the coupling effect of multiple pool fires was studied in view of spatial and temporal synergistic process. The historical accident statistics indicated that the accident scenario of two-pool fires accounted for 30.6% in pool fires. The domino accident scenario involving three tanks is analyzed, and the typical layout of tanks is isosceles right triangle based on Chinese standard “GB50341-2014”. The thermal response and damage of a target tank heated by pool fires were numerically investigated. The volume of 500 m³, 3000 m³, 5000 m³ and 10000 m³ were selected. Flame temperature was obtained by FDS, and then was input onto the finite element model. The temperature field and stress field of target tanks were simulated by ABAQUS. The results showed that the temperature rise rate of the target tanks under multiple pool fires was higher than that under a single pool fire. The failure time of the tank under the coupling effect of multiple fires was lower than that under the superposition of multiple fires without the first stage. The stress and yield strength were compared to judge the failure of the target tank. The model of failure time for the tank under the coupling effect of pool fires was established. Through the verification, the deviation of this model is 4.02%, which is better than the deviation of 15.76% with Cozzani's model.     

化工储罐区池火灾多米诺效应风险评估

化工储罐区储罐数量较多且集中,一旦发生事故很可能诱发多米诺效应造成灾难性的后果。在分析池火灾多米诺效应作用模式的基础上,建立了池火灾多米诺效应风险评估模型,并对某化工储罐区进行了实例计算,分析了单一储罐池火灾事故引发其他储罐池火灾的风险。分析结果表明,池火灾是诱发化工储罐多米诺事故的重要因素,且会造成风险的显著增加,但并非所有的池火灾事故都会诱发多米诺效应。此外,将多米诺效应评价方法应用于化工储罐池火灾事故风险评估中可有效地预测次生事故的发生概率和后果,从而提出针对性措施。     

Optimal Assignments of Allocating and Scheduling Emergency Resources to Accidents in Chemical Industrial Parks

Accidents in chemical industrial parks can result in mass casualties and the risk usually escalates due to domino effects. However, most of the existing models of emergency logistics do not account for domino effect and may be unsuitable for emergency response to accidents in chemical industrial parks. This paper presents a mathematical model proposed for optimal assignments of allocating and scheduling emergency resources for rescuing victims and preventing accident spreading simultaneously. The detailed characteristics of accident scenarios and emergency resources are taken into account. Based on this, the efficiency of emergency response is evaluated by the total number of fatalities and the amount of losses caused by domino effects which are the optimal objectives of the model. A numerical case study was conducted by solving the model using a designed heuristic algorithm. The results showed the applicability and reliability of the proposed model for making optimal assignments for emergency response to accidents in chemical industrial parks.     

某储罐区火灾多米诺效应场景推演

化工园区中危险源众多,一旦发生事故很容易在整个园区内蔓延和发展.针对化工园区内储罐密集,容易引发连锁反应导致事故扩大的特点,利用FDS软件对储罐火灾场景进行数值模拟,根据储罐所受热辐射确定化工园区内储罐火灾最可能的事故发生序列,并引入基于设备失效前时间的机械设备故障概率模型对罐区内单个储罐的火灾风险进行研究,得到储罐区...     

基于多米诺效应的输油管道重大事故后果分析

针对近年来不断发生的输油管道重大事故,引入多米诺效应理论分析输油管道事故后果。首先依据多米诺效应机理,建立输油管道重大事故多米诺效应模型,然后采用PHAST软件确定初始事故影响范围,运用设备损坏概率和人员伤亡概率模型计算初始事故对周围设备和个体的影响概率,从而可以从设备损坏、人员伤亡和事故影响范围三个方面定量分析输油管道的事故后果。研究结果对制定输油管道重大事故应急抢险方案,避免事故影响范围进一步扩大具有理论指导意义。     

Estimation of the impact probability in domino effects due to the projection of fragments

Despite the remarkable severity of domino effects in activities at major hazard, a complete methodology analysing such events has not been developed and integrated within Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). Such a deficiency appears to be particularly remarkable for domino effects triggered by the projection of fragments. The aim of the present work is therefore to propose a systematic procedure for the quantification of domino effects due to fragments projection within QRA. To achieve this objective, the deterministic approach for the estimation of the realistic trajectory of fragments is entirely reviewed. In order to incorporate such a reviewed approach within the standard QRA, a probabilistic model for the impact probability of the fragments is developed by applying a Monte-Carlo method to the trajectory equations. The validation of the proposed framework is carried out by using the data related to an accident occurred in 1993 in the oil refinery of Milazzo (Italy).