An integrated method for safety pre-warning of complex system

In large-scale and complex industrial systems, unplanned outages and hazardous accidents cause huge economic losses, environmental contamination, and human injuries, due to component degradation, exogenous changes, and operational mistakes. In order to ensure safety and increase operational performance and reliability of complex system, this study proposes an integrated method for safety pre-warning to analyze the current safety state of each component and the whole system indicating hidden hazards and potential consequence, and furthermore predict future degradation trends in the long term.The work presented here describes the rationale and implementation of the integrated method incorporating HAZOP study, degradation process modeling, dynamic Bayesian network construction, condition monitoring, safety assessment and prognosis steps, taking advantage of the priori knowledge of the interactions and dependencies among components and the environment, the relationships between hazard causes and effects, and the use of historical failure data and online real-time data from condition monitoring.The application of the integrated safety pre-warning approach described here to the specific example of the gas turbine compressor system demonstrates how each phase of the presented method contributes to completion of the safety pre-warning system development in a systematic way.     

Development and application of equipment maintenance and safety integrity management system

Equipment management in process industry in China essentially belongs to the traditional breakdown maintenance pattern, and the basic inspection/maintenance decision-making is weak. Equipment inspection/maintenance tasks are mainly based on the empirical or qualitative method, and it lacks identification and classification of critical equipment, so that maintenance resources can’t be reasonably allocated. Reliability, availability and safety of equipment are difficult to control and guarantee due to the existing maintenance deficiencies, maintenance surplus, potential danger and possible accidents. In order to ensure stable production and reduce operation cost, equipment maintenance and safety integrity management system (MSI) is established in this paper, which integrates ERP, MES, RBI, RCM, SIL and PMIS together. MSI can provide dynamic risk rank data, predictive maintenance data and RAM decision-making data, through which the personnel at all levels can grasp the risk state of equipment timely and accurately and optimize maintenance schedules to support the decision-making. The result of an engineering case shows that the system can improve reliability, availability, and safety, lower failure frequency, decrease failure consequences and make full use of maintenance resources, thus achieving the reasonable and positive result.     

基于安全性目标的车辆维护周期数学模型研究

本研究旨在建立一个相应于不同的给定的行驶安全性的车辆最优维护周期数学模型，同时，利用汽车制动系、转向系等系统或装置的运行故障分布参数，求出了不同安全性水平下该数学模型的解。还依据原始数据，给出了同样基于行驶安全性目标的汽车维护周期允许上限。本研究结果可用于指导汽车维护工作，而且对保证或提高在用车辆的行驶安全性具有重要的作用     

Optimization of test interval for ageing equipment: A multi-objective genetic algorithm approach

Reducing the unavailability of safety systems at nuclear power plants, by utilizing the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology, is one of the prime goals in the nuclear industry. In that sense, optimization of test and maintenance activities, which are defined within the technical specifications, represents quite popular and interesting domain. Obtaining optimal test and maintenance schedule is of great significance for improving system availability and performance as well as plant availability in general.On the other side, equipment aging has gradually become a major concern in the nuclear industry since the number of safety systems components, that are approaching their wear-out stage, is rising fast. Nuclear power plants life management programs, considering safety components aging, are being developed and employed. The immense uncertainty associated to the available component aging rates databases poses significant difficulties in the process of incorporation and quantification of the aging effect within the PSA and, subsequently, in the decision-making process.In this paper, an approach for optimization of surveillance test interval of standby equipment with highly uncertain aging parameters, based on genetic algorithm technique and PSA, is presented. A standard standby safety system in nuclear power plant is selected as a case study. A Monte Carlo simulation-based approach is used to assess uncertainty propagation on system level. Optimal test interval is derived on the basis of minimal system unavailability and minimal impact of components aging parameters uncertainty. The results obtained in this application indicate the fact that risk-informed surveillance requirements differ from existing ones in technical specifications as well as show the importance of considering aging data uncertainties in component aging modeling.     

Dynamic failure assessment of an ammonia storage unit: A case study

Chemical Process Industries usually contain a diverse inventory of hazardous chemicals and complex systems required to perform process operations such as storage, separation, reaction, compression etc. The complex interactions between the equipment make them vulnerable to catastrophic accidents. Risk and failure assessment provide engineers with an intuitive tool for decision making in the operation of such plants. Abnormal events and near-miss situations occur regularly during the operation of a system. Accident Sequence Precursors (ASP) can be used to demonstrate the real-time operating condition of a plant. Dynamic Failure Assessment (DFA) methodology is based on Bayesian statistical methods incorporates ASP data to revise the generic failure probabilities of the systems during its operational lifetime.In this paper, DFA methodology is applied on an ammonia storage unit in a specialized chemical industry. Ammonia is stored in cold storage tanks as liquefied gas at atmospheric pressure. These tanks are susceptible to failures due to various abnormal conditions arising due process failures.Tank failures due to three such abnormal conditions are considered. Variation of the failure probability of the safety systems is demonstrated. The authors use ASP data collected from plant specific sources and safety expert judgement. The failure probabilities of some safety systems concerned show considerable deviation from the generic values. The method helps to locate the components which have undergone more degradation over the period and hence must be paid attention to. In addition, a Bayesian predictive model has been used to predict the number of abnormal events in the next time interval. The user-friendly and intuitive nature of the tool makes it appropriate for application in safety assessment reports in process industries.     

Component failure recognition and maintenance optimization for offshore heave compensation systems based on importance measures

Heave compensation systems work to reduce the influence of unpredictable marine environments on offshore operations and are powered by hydraulic systems. As an important approach in the reliability field, importance measure assesses the impact of components on a system. This paper considers the importance of hydraulic system components for system performance. By analyzing the working state of each component in the passive compensation and active compensation phases, the working principle of the hydraulic system of a semi-active heave compensation experimental system is explained. According to the actual design of the experimental system and its working principle, eight types of 27 components, whose failures affect the performance, are extracted. The servo valve and the accumulator are determined to be redundant while the other components are nonredundant. Two performance-related importance measures, Griffith importance measure (GIM) and integrated importance measure (IIM), are then applied to sort the components of the hydraulic system and determine the maintenance sequence. Finally, based on the IIM value and the maintenance cost of each component, optimization strategies are proposed under different conditions using total cost and time as independent variables.     

Fuzzy dynamic risk-based maintenance investment optimization for offshore process facilities

A methodology for maintenance planning is developed which helps in improving the reliability of the components and safety performance in process facilities. This methodology helps design an optimum safety maintenance investment plan by integrating the optimization techniques and a fuzzy dynamic risk-based method. Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (IFAHP) is applied to deal with uncertain data. The proposed approach employs multi-experts’ knowledge which helps to optimize the maintenance investments. A separator system in an offshore process facility platform is selected as a case study to demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology. A practical example in the separator system is surveyed and potential failures and Basic Events (BEs) are identified. Finally, a risk-based maintenance plan is provided for future safety investment analysis. The results indicate that the developed methodology estimates the risk more accurately, which enhances the reliability of future process operations.     

基于马尔可夫的地面控制井下安全阀可靠性评估

为保障地面控制井下安全阀系统的安全运行，防止系统发生故障，建立了井下安全阀可修复系统的马尔可夫模型；针对系统设备构成复杂及共因故障等问题，基于β因子模型描述共因失效，同时将模型划分为3个独立模块，通过克罗内克积方法合并，评估系统可靠性；参照OREDA可靠性数据，定量求解井下安全阀系统可用度、可靠度以及稳态指标，研究模型中状态转移概率对系统稳态可用度的影响。研究结果表明:井下安全阀系统的可用度随时间增长而迅速到达稳态值；系统检修周期应小于2.5 a；根据可靠性分析结果，运营方应考虑系统经济与可靠性间的博弈关系，合理优化系统冗余结构与维修周期管理，防止井下安全阀系统失效。     

在役悬索管道抗风性能研究及结构退化分析*

为提高在役成品油悬索跨越管道结构及性能的可靠性,保障长输油气管道生产运营的安全,建立某在役成品油悬索跨越管道的有限元力学仿真模型,研究风载荷对悬索跨越管道的影响作用,探讨主索、吊索等主要构件性能退化时对悬索管道安全性的影响规律。结果表明:通过有限元模拟可以得到管道失效风速为60 m/s,远大于极限风速,且涡激振动振幅很小;主索腐蚀、吊索断裂以及是否存在抗风索这3种情况均能影响结构的安全性。相关企业应当对结构的重要构件进行定期检修,以保障生产运营安全。     

光纤线路运行维护智能系统研究

针对当前光纤线路运行中日益突出的维护和管理问题 ,笔者提出了开展光纤线路运行维护智能系统研究的问题。通过分析现有光纤运行维护技术 ,认为当前的网络运营维护思路“故障维修” ,已不适应现代网络运营的发展需要 ,应该采取“状态维修”的新思路和防患于未然的策略。为此 ,笔者运用系统工程的思想、人工智能技术、数据挖掘技术、Agent技术 ,研究了具有故障预警功能的光纤线路运行维护智能系统 ,给出了该系统的分析和设计方案 ,从整体上探索保障光纤网络的安全运行措施 ,为建立实际的预警系统奠定了基础。     

Risk-based maintenance (RBM): a quantitative approach for maintenance/inspection scheduling and planning

The overall objective of the maintenance process is to increase the profitability of the operation and optimize the total life cycle cost without compromising safety or environmental issues. Risk assessment integrates reliability with safety and environmental issues and therefore can be used as a decision tool for preventive maintenance planning. Maintenance planning based on risk analysis minimizes the probability of system failure and its consequences (related to safety, economic, and environment). It helps management in making correct decisions concerning investment in maintenance or related field. This will, in turn, result in better asset and capital utilization.

This paper presents a new methodology for risk-based maintenance. The proposed methodology is comprehensive and quantitative. It comprises three main modules: risk estimation module, risk evaluation module, and maintenance planning module. Details of the three modules are given. A case study, which exemplifies the use of methodology to a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) system, is also discussed.     

在役工业厂房建筑维护管理分析评价

在调研了全国各区域各行业工业厂房结构安全的基础上,提出工业厂房后期运营阶段的结构安全性和可靠性需要通过科学的维修制度来保证。分析了引起工业厂房结构失检、误判的因素,建立了相应的评价指标体系,以评价企业厂房结构安全的维护管理水平。理论分析和实例评价表明,通过提高维护管理水平可以减少厂房结构失检、误判事件的发生,加强厂房的检测、维护,可以有效预防工业厂房结构渐发性事故发生,在有限成本内实现对工业厂房结构安全管理的效益最大化。     

Building an Executive Information System for Maintenance Efficiency in Petrochemical Plants—An Evaluation

This study used the manufacturing process in the petrochemical industries as an example and developed a dedicated maintenance programme and executive information system (EIS) for this industry. The software for EIS was established on a CMMS platform, with logical and extractive analysis used to store the information in a KPI databank. The system developed can provide plant managers and engineers with a complete summary of information and keep them updated regarding the present status of their maintenance efforts. The objective of this study was to establish a management system for maintaining knowledge in the petrochemical industries, such as the management of standard operating procedures (SOPs), historical records and the analysis of data for the facility. To design the software, a review of petrochemical facility was purposed to enhance the maintenance efforts and facilitate the decision-making process. The main functions of the system include asset reliability analysis, failure analysis and maintenance benefit cost analysis. For the petrochemical industry, the impact of safety and environment caused by equipment malfunction is more substantial than that of other industries. If executives can manage essential points effectively and make decisions according to a key performance index, risks to safety and environment, which result from equipment malfunction, can be decreased and safety can be enhanced for petrochemical refineries.     

高速铁路信号系统的安全管理评价研究

高速铁路信号系统要通过安全管理来保障其开发与运行中的安全相关活动符合系统安全计划的要求。为了评估安全管理活动的可信性,提出基于系统安全分析技术的安全管理评价方法。通过建立安全管理流程与系统安全功能相关联的概念模型,使用安全文化危险与可操作性研究(SCHAZOP)辨识出安全管理流程中的行为偏差,基于失效传导转换符号(FPTN)建立管理角色的安全文化失效模型,最终将管理行为失效模式转换成组件故障树作为安全管理评价证据。研究结果表明,安全管理行为偏差体现了信号系统开发与运营过程中的安全文化特征;辨识与分析安全文化失效,为信号系统安全管理活动的可信性提供了评价依据。     

基于Bayesian网络的常减压装置设备故障概率分析

为分析影响常减压蒸馏装置平稳运行的设备失效模式及故障部件,基于1 151条设备故障数据,采用Bayesian网络分析方法,分别对离心泵、压缩机、电动机构建基于Bayesian网络的设备故障概率分析模型,分析故障部件、失效模式、故障后果之间的定量概率关系。研究结果表明:离心泵、压缩机、电动机停运的关键致因部件分别为轴承箱密封故障、活塞环故障、轴承故障,同时得到导致设备停运的故障部件敏感度排序。研究结果有助于提高设备故障风险防范及检维修工作效率,同时可为备件优化方案提供思路。     

Dependability assessment of network-based safety-related system

Advances in electronic integration and radio communication have led to the emergence of a new kind of safety systems, i.e. Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). This network-based safety-related system is becoming more and more present in the domain of safety due to its easy deployment. It does not need a wire infrastructure and its range of applications is wide. Usually, such a system is composed of various nodes (sensors) collaborating to monitor a targeted phenomenon. In most cases, nodes are battery powered and this is the weakness of the system makes it necessary to design an energy saving policy. The present paper gives a dependability viewpoint of such a system. A modeling framework is suggested integrating the interdependency of the components. Stochastic Petri nets are used to implement this model and two heuristics to schedule component activity. The first is based on the proposed importance measures, the second on a multi-objective genetic algorithm. The aim is to conserve energy and so to extend WSN dependability.     

Failure rate evaluation with influencing factors

A new methodology for failure rate evaluation with influencing factors is proposed. A quantitative part allows integrating potential available data from feedback. Then, a qualitative analysis deals with influencing factors such as design, environment, and use to provide more coherent and argued results. The main idea is to use some criteria to fix the failure rate within a prior interval, according to the influencing factor states. To this end, the system is broken up into main component groups. When a component group is susceptible to an influencing factor, its baseline failure rate is multiplied by the relevant influencing coefficient. A seven-step methodology is presented to define the model, identify and rate the influencing factors, set indicator functions taking the uncertainties into account, and calculate the influencing coefficients. The proposed methodology is global enough to be usable for a large number of safety instrumented systems and influencing factors. For example, an application regarding safety pressure relief valves is given. The prospect is for more efficient risk management by acting both on systems and influencing factors.     

An evaluation approach using a HARA and FMEDA for the hardware SIL

Safety instrumented systems (SIS) are becoming increasingly complex, and form a growing proportion of programmable electronic parts. The IEC 61508 global standard was established to ensure the functional safety of SIS; however, it was expressed in highly macroscopic terms. The safety integrity level (SIL) is a criterion describing whether a component meets the safety requirements of a SIS. The safety requirements give a target SIL for the expected risks using hazard analysis and risk assessment (HARA). The SIL must correspond to the safety requirements. This study introduces an evaluation process for determining the hardware SIL through failure modes, effects, and diagnostic analysis (FMEDA). First, the components of the SIS subsystem are defined in terms of failure modes and effects, and then the failure rate and failure mechanism distribution are assigned to each component. The safety mode and detectability of each failure mode are determined for each component and, finally, the hardware SIL is evaluated. We perform a case study to evaluate the hardware SIL of the flame scanner system using HARA and FMEDA, where the safety requirement of the flame scanner was determined using the risk graph method. We verified that the hardware SIL of the flame scanner corresponded to the safety requirement.     

CESSNA172R飞机飞行操纵钢索故障原因分析

CESSNA172R飞机飞行操纵(副翼、升降舵、方向舵、襟翼)系统钢索多次发生磨损、断裂故障,严重威胁了飞行安全。根据该机型结构设计特点,通过相似机型系统类比、数据可靠性分析等方法分析了各飞行操纵系统钢索失效的主要原因,提出了预防飞行操纵钢索失效的措施。通过调整飞机的操纵钢索系统的维护周期,改进钢索的检查和维护技术,提高飞机在全寿命周期中的安全可靠性。     

A framework to estimate the risk-based shutdown interval for a processing plant

Petrochemical plants and refineries consist of hundreds of pieces of complex equipment and machinery that run under rigorous operating conditions and are subjected to deterioration over time due to aging, wear, corrosion, erosion, fatigue and other reasons. These devices operate under extreme operating pressures and temperatures, and any failure may result in huge financial consequences for the operating company. To minimize the risk and to maintain operational reliability and availability, companies adopt various maintenance strategies. Shutdown or turnaround maintenance is one such strategy. In general, shutdown for inspection and maintenance is based on the original equipment manufacturer's (OEM) suggested recommended periods. However, this may not be the most optimum strategy given that operating conditions may vary significantly from company to company.The framework proposed in this work estimates the risk-based shutdown interval for inspection and maintenance. It provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making by considering the probability of the equipment or system for failure and the likely consequences that may follow. The novel risk-based approach is compared with the conventional fixed interval approach. This former approach, characterized as it is by optimized inspection, maintenance and risk management, leads to extended intervals between shutdowns. The result is the increase in production and the consequent income of millions of dollars.The proposed framework is a cost effective way to minimize the overall financial risk for asset inspection and maintenance while fulfilling safety and availability requirements.