Assessment and improvement of integrated HSE and macro-ergonomics factors by fuzzy cognitive maps: The case of a large gas refinery

This study analyzes and assesses the integrated health, safety, environment (HSE) and ergonomics (HSEE) factors by fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This is achieved through integrating ergonomic and macro-ergonomic as well as occupational health and safety arrangements in an integrated modeling for assessment of their multi-faceted impact on workers' productivity, injury rate and satisfaction. This paper uses FCM to assess the direct and indirect effects of HSEE factors on system performance indicators. The results of FCM are used to develop leading indicators useful for proactive management of productivity, injury rate, and job satisfaction. The result of a comprehensive survey of 37 experts in control rooms and maintenance activities in a large gas refinery is used to show the applicability and usefulness of FCM approach. Moreover, FCM results are used to determine the causal structure of HSEE factors and system performance indicators. It is concluded that macro-ergonomics factors such as instructions and education, familiarity with organization's rules, and proper communications most contribute to improve workers' safety, satisfaction, and productivity.     

Criteria to determine likelihood of brain injury during explosive events

The occurrence of blast-induced brain injury in individuals serving in Iraq and Afghanistan is dramatically higher than in past conflicts. This has been attributed in part to the prevalence of roadside improvised explosive devices, or IEDs. There is a call from the military medical community to reduce the reliance on victim self-reporting as the primary diagnosis technique to determine the likelihood of brain injury after a blast. This study demonstrates the ability to establish criteria which correlates easily measured parameters to the probability of cerebral contusion and, thus, brain injury. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used to establish the environment from a full range of threats. This is combined with bond graph modeling of varying levels of fidelity to estimate the dynamics of the skull and brain. Results clearly show that a boundary exists in the threat parameter space that determines whether brain injury is probable.     

土坝漫坝模糊风险分析

对土坝枢纽的事故风险进行识别、对各种失事形式的影响因素的不确定性,特别是模糊不确定性进行分析;考虑设计变量取值的模糊性与大坝失效准则的模糊性,建立了在洪水和风浪共同作用下的漫坝模糊风险模型;然后研究该漫坝模糊风险模型的求解方法,即引入α水平截集的概念,经过模糊化处理后用常规的JC法计算漫坝模糊失事概率.最后,对广西澄碧河水库的漫坝模糊风险进行了实例计算和评价.计算结果表明,随着防洪限制水位的提高,漫坝模糊风险也随之增大,当防洪限制水位从185.00m提高到186.90 m时,该大坝的模糊风险期望值在不考虑防浪墙的作用时为6.03×10-5,在考虑防浪墙作用时为2.698×10-5,均小于其容许风险标准7.12×10-5.据此,可将该水库的风险水位提高1.9 m,从而增加兴利库容76.00×106 m3.考虑漫坝风险的模糊性使失事风险的计算结果更加合理,风险评价更加符合工程实际,将模糊参数进行模糊化处理后,可直接采用现有传统风险计算方法计算失事概率.本文方法便于在工程中推广应用.     

SFN中不同角色事件重要性分析方法研究

为了了解系统故障演化过程(System Fault Evolution Process,SFEP)中不同事件以不同角色对演化过程的影响,提出了一种基于场论的事件重要性分析方法.在SFEP中,相同事件可以作为原因事件、结果事件或两者兼备,但不同角色发挥作用不同.场论可以研究SFEP中各事件与相邻事件的相互作用.使用空间故障网络(Space Fault Network,SFN)描述SFEP,将场论分析需要的参数替换为SFN参数分析各事件相互作用.将场论中的距离等效为传递概率的倒数,质量等效为事件的入度和出度,并提出了一系列概念和方法实现事件重要性确定.试验表明,通过该方法可得到SFEP中不同事件分别作为原因事件、结果事件和两者兼备情况下的事件重要性排序,包括综合入度势、综合出度势和综合入出度势.研究可为SFEP的防治和预测提供方法.     

Unintentional non-traffic injury and fatal events: Threats to children in and around vehicles

Objective: There have been substantial reductions in motor vehicle crash–related child fatalities due to advances in legislation, public safety campaigns, and engineering. Less is known about non-traffic injuries and fatalities to children in and around motor vehicles. The objective of this study was to describe the frequency of various non-traffic incidents, injuries, and fatalities to children using a unique surveillance system and database.

Methods: Instances of non-traffic injuries and fatalities in the United States to children 0–14 years were tracked from January 1990 to December 2014 using a compilation of sources including media reports, individual accounts from families of affected children, medical examiner reports, police reports, child death review teams, coroner reports, medical professionals, legal professionals, and other various modes of publication.

Results: Over the 25-year period, there were at least 11,759 events resulting in 3,396 deaths. The median age of the affected child was 3.7 years. The incident types included 3,115 children unattended in hot vehicles resulting in 729 deaths, 2,251 backovers resulting in 1,232 deaths, 1,439 frontovers resulting in 692 deaths, 777 vehicles knocked into motion resulting in 227 deaths, 415 underage drivers resulting in 203 deaths, 172 power window incidents resulting in 61 deaths, 134 falls resulting in 54 deaths, 79 fires resulting in 41 deaths, and 3,377 other incidents resulting in 157 deaths.

Conclusions: Non-traffic injuries and fatalities present an important threat to the safety and lives of very young children. Future efforts should consider complementary surveillance mechanisms to systematically and comprehensively capture all non-traffic incidents. Continued education, engineering modifications, advocacy, and legislation can help continue to prevent these incidents and must be incorporated in overall child vehicle safety initiatives.     

Resources and coping with stressful events

This longitudinal, quasi‐field experiment tested whether perceived stress and increase in perceived stress are related to the resources of the individual, namely, personality (core self evaluation scale (CSES)), physical fitness, social support (acceptance and/or rejection by peers), and cognitive abilities. Perceived stress scale (PSS) was administered at two points in time to participants in a two‐day selection process for a military unit, whose stressful environment formed the manipulation in this study. Baseline PSS was obtained from soldiers before the selection activity, when threatened with resource loss. PSS was next administered during the selection activity, when individuals had to cope with actual loss of resources and difficulty in regaining them. As expected, participants perceived more stress during the selection activity. Participants with higher CSES, higher cognitive abilities and higher levels of social support perceived lower stress levels prior to the activity. The increase in stress level was lower for participants with better fitness levels, but greater for participants rejected by their peers. Exploratory analysis of resource overlap was conducted and revealed a contribution of few key resources to coping, even in the presence of other resources. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of risk factors affecting driver injury and crash injury with drivers under the influence of alcohol (DUI) and non-DUI

Objective: The objective of this research was to study risk factors that significantly influence the severity of crashes for drivers both under and not under the influence of alcohol.

Methods: Ordinal logistic regression was applied to analyze a crash data set involving drivers under and not under the influence of alcohol in China from January 2011 to December 2014.

Results: Four risk factors were found to be significantly associated with the severity of driver injury, including crash partner and intersection type. Age group was found to be significantly associated with the severity of crashes involving drivers under the influence of alcohol. Crash partner, intersection type, lighting conditions, gender, and time of day were found to be significantly associated with severe driver injuries, the last of which was also significantly associated with severe crashes involving drivers not under the influence of alcohol.

Conclusions: This study found that pedestrian involvement decreases the odds of severe driver injury when a driver is under the influence of alcohol, with a relative risk of 0.05 compared to the vehicle-to-vehicle group. The odds of severe driver injury at T-intersections were higher than those for traveling along straight roads. Age was shown to be an important factor, with drivers 50–60 years of age having higher odds of being involved in severe crashes compared to 20- to 30-year-olds when the driver was under the influence of alcohol.

When the driver was not under the influence of alcohol, drivers suffered more severe injuries between midnight and early morning compared to early nighttime. The vehicle-to-motorcycle and vehicle-to-pedestrian groups experienced less severe driver injuries, and vehicle collisions with fixed objects exhibited higher odds of severe driver injury than did vehicle-to-vehicle impacts. The odds of severe driver injury at cross intersections were 0.29 compared to travel along straight roads. The odds of severe driver injury when street lighting was not available at night were 3.20 compared to daylight. The study indicated that female drivers are more likely to experience severe injury than male drivers when not under the influence of alcohol. Crashes between midnight and early morning exhibited higher odds of severe injury compared to those occurring at other times of day.

The identification of risk factors and a discussion on the odds ratio between levels of the impact of the driver injury and crash severity may benefit road safety stakeholders when developing initiatives to reduce the severity of crashes.     

Incidence rates and risk factors for injury events in high school students in Lijin County, China

PROBLEM: Most investigations of injuries among Chinese populations are focused on urban or better developed areas, fewer on rural or poor areas. METHODS: From September 21 to 27, 2002, an epidemiological investigation of eight kinds of injury-related events was carried out among 1,944 students in 39 classes randomly sampled from middle schools in Lijin County, a rural area. The eight kinds of events were: (a) traffic accidents, (b) poisoning, (c) fall, (d) burn or scald, (e) blunt or sharp tools contact, (f) electrical contact, (g) animal or insect bites, and (h) non-fatal drowning. RESULTS: The total incidence rate of eight kinds of injuries in the previous year was 21.1%. The incidence rate among boys was 24.2%, while that among girls was 17.4%, which was significant (chi-square=13.4, P<0.05). The incidence rate among junior high school students was 23.1%, while that among senior high school students was 15.5%, which was also significant (chi-square=13.2, P<0.05). A case-control study of 410 students with at least one of eight kinds of injury events indicated that students' gender and their mothers' health status were related to their injuries. CONCLUSION: The injury incidence rate in a rural area was less than other results in urban or developed areas. Students' gender and mothers' health status were important factors associated with the occurrence of injury. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: In order to improve the surroundings of the growing population of adolescents, some preventive measures should be put forward, especially to the high-risk students of injury.     

基于差异检验的飞行超限事件参数特征分析

提出一种利用差异检验对QAR超限事件与飞行记录数据进行分析的方法,以从海量的QAR飞行数据中提取出带有指导意义的信息。首先研究了将KW检验应用于QAR超限事件分析的可行性;然后针对某超限事件进行典型参数选择,并对发生与未发生该超限事件进行分组,对所选择的航班采样数据进行KW检验,根据检验结果判断某飞行阶段中被选择的典型参数是否存在显著差异。最后对于存在显著差异的参数,分析其参数特征,通过理论与经验对其进行解释,研究其对于超限事件的影响。通过对爬升速度大（35-1000 ft）,下降率大（2000-1000 ft）及接地点远三项超限事件进行举例分析,可以看出KW检验能够分析飞行参数的分布差异,进而为事件分析提供经验性的判读依据,并为飞行安全管理工作提供指导。     

Analysis of rider and child pillion passenger kinematics along with injury mechanisms during motorcycle crash

Abstract

Objective: Traffic fatalities among motorcycle users are intolerably high in Thailand. They account for 73% of the total number of road fatalities. Children are also among these victims. To improve countermeasures and design of protection equipment, understanding the biomechanics of motorcycle users under impact conditions is necessary. The objective of this work is to analyze the overall kinematics and injuries sustained by riders and child pillion passengers in various accident configurations.

Methods: Motorcycle accident data were analyzed. Common accident scenarios and impact parameters were identified. Two numerical approaches were employed. The multibody model was validated with a motorcycle crash test and used to generate possible accident cases for various impact conditions specified to cover all common accident scenarios. Specific impact conditions were selected for detailed finite element analysis. The finite element simulations of motorcycle-to-car collisions were conducted to provide insight into kinematics and injury mechanisms.

Results: Global kinematics found when the motorcycle’s front wheel impacts a car (config-MC) highlighted the translation motion of both the rider and passenger toward the impact position. The rider’s trunk impacted the handlebar and the head either impacted the car or missed. The hood constituted the highest head impact occurrence for this configuration. The child mostly impacted the rider’s back. Different kinematics were found when car impacted the lateral side of the motorcycle (config-CM). Upper bodies of both rider and child were laterally projected toward the car front. The windshield constituted the highest proportion of head impacts. The hood and A-pillar recorded a moderate proportion. The rider in finite element simulations with config-MC experienced high rib stress, lung strain, and pressure beyond the injury limit. A high head injury criterion was observed when the head hit the car. However, the simulation with config-CM exhibited high lower extremities stress and lung pressure in both occupants. Hyperextension of the rider’s neck was observed. The cumulative strain damage measure of the child’s brain was higher than the threshold for diffuse axonal injury (DAI).

Conclusions: This study revealed 2 kinematics patterns and injury mechanisms. Simulations with config-MC manifested a high risk of head and thorax injury to the rider but a low risk of severe injury to the child. Thorax injury to the rider due to handlebar impact was only found in simulations with config-MC. However, a high risk of skull, lower extremity, brain, and neck injuries were more pronounced for cases with config-CM. A high risk of DAI was also noticed for the child. In simulations with config-CM the child exhibited a higher risk of severe injury.     

Analysis of posttraumatic stress disorder in children with road traffic injury in Wenzhou,China

Objective: Road traffic accidents are the leading health threat to children and cause significant long-term mental health problems. This study aimed to characterize posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in children suffering from road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Wenzhou, China.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of 537 children (aged 1 to 13 years old) with RTIs. The epidemiological features, PTSD incidence, clinical manifestation, and risk factors were analyzed based on a customized PTSD risk factor questionnaire. The outcome factors were also evaluated by means of the logistic regression method.

Results: The PTSD incidence was 24.77% in children with RTIs. The incidence of PTSD was related to the personality, family environment, and family care of the children. It was found that early psychological intervention and reasonable family care from the family might promote physical and mental welfare as well as contribute to the development of more effective treatments to prevent PTSD.

Conclusion: For susceptible children, in addition to dealing with the somatic injury, psychological intervention and family care should be carried out as early as possible.     

浅析人身伤害赔偿标准

目前,我国所公布执行的人身损害赔偿标准正处于多元化状态.由于标准的不同,相同的人身伤害赔偿项目在不同的标准中所规定的赔偿金额悬殊很大.笔者认为,可以由安全生产监督管理部门协调有关部门,组织制定统一的相关赔偿标准,依法保障事故赔偿和安全生产.     

基于模糊贝叶斯网络的煤气化职业健康风险分析

针对煤气化行业职业健康风险影响因素不确定及模糊的特点,建立了职业健康风险计算模型。该模型将模糊数学与贝叶斯网络相耦合,模拟事件概率,找出导致风险的主要因素。通过分析煤气化行业中存在的多种风险因素,应用问卷调查法和模糊集理论模拟了根节点的发生概率,得出职业健康风险概率的预测值;应用贝叶斯网络反向推理的功能计算根节点后验概率并排序,确定了薄弱环节。该模型不仅能解决概率缺失情况下的风险量化推算问题,定量进行职业健康风险评估,还可以实现关键因素的识别,并能有针对性地提出改进措施,为职业健康风险预防提供决策依据。     

Evaluating relief events in binary mixtures with dynamic simulations

Relieving rates in ethanol/water and ethylene glycol/water mixtures were investigated using dynamic models of an emergency relief scenario due to an external heat source. A commonly used shortcut method was compared to two rigorous calculation methods—one using ideal conditions and another using non-ideal conditions. In several cases, the shortcut method provides a reasonable estimate compared to the rate predicted by the more rigorous methods. However, in many cases the shortcut method over or under-predicts the required relieving rate—sometimes by a significant amount. Several discrepancies are also noted between non-ideal and ideal conditions. This study demonstrates that each multi-component mixture must be carefully considered before sizing emergency relief systems and devices.     

基于APRIORI-TAN的交通事故伤害分析与预测*

为探究道路交通事故因素和事故伤害的相关性,以2 467起涉及人员伤亡的交通事故为数据集,运用Apriori算法分别挖掘事故伤害关联规则,并结合社会网络分析的可视化和核心-边缘分析构建受伤事故和死亡事故的关联规则网络。结果表明:事故伤害程度与事故时间、道路条件和交通环境等因素关系紧密,尤其死亡事故与碰撞固定物、人行横道事故、高速公路、高速道路、非市区、酒驾和超速存在高相关性。基于树型贝叶斯网络（TAN）构建事故伤害程度的预测模型,预测结果准确率可达87.56%。     

任意有界论域的模糊变量转化成随机变量的方法

针对机械系统广义可靠性中极限状态方程的模糊参数向等价正态随机变量转化时其均值难以确定的问题,提出了一种将具有任意有界论域的模糊变量转化成随机变量的方法,以该法所得的随机变量的均值作为等价正态随机变量的均值,得到模糊变量的更为准确的等价正态随机变量表达式,使含有模糊参数机械系统可靠度能在正态空间内确定.并在算例中以水平截集法作为准确值,验证了该方法的准确性和简洁性.     

Risk assessment of rare events

Rare events often result in large impacts and are hard to predict. Risk analysis of such events is a challenging task because there are few directly relevant data to form a basis for probabilistic risk assessment. Due to the scarcity of data, the probability estimation of a rare event often uses precursor data. Precursor-based methods have been widely used in probability estimation of rare events. However, few attempts have been made to estimate consequences of rare events using their precursors. This paper proposes a holistic precursor-based risk assessment framework for rare events. The Hierarchical Bayesian Approach (HBA) using hyper-priors to represent prior parameters is applied to probability estimation in the proposed framework. Accident precursor data are utilized from an information theory perspective to seek the most informative precursor upon which the consequence of a rare event is estimated. Combining the estimated probability and consequence gives a reasonable assessment of risk. The assessed risk is updated as new information becomes available to produce a dynamic risk profile. The applicability of the methodology is tested through a case study of an offshore blowout accident. The proposed framework provides a rational way to develop the dynamic risk profile of a rare event for its prevention and control.     

基于模糊加权Markov方法的飞机重着陆风险控制研究

飞机重着陆严重影响着飞行安全,控制重着陆事件风险是该领域研究难点.提出了模糊加权Markov模型方法,进行飞机重着陆状态预测研究.首先,通过起落架接地受力分析,确定飞机接地载荷作为描述重着陆状态的特征参数,并引入模糊有序聚类算法,获得重着陆状态划分规则;然后,针对起落架接地载荷进行状态分级,计算载荷序列的自相关系数,获取多时滞Markov链的权值;最终,建立加权Markov模型,预测起落架接地载荷时序分布,根据载荷序列概率分布来评价重着陆等级,实现重着陆风险的控制.工程实例表明,该算法准确率高,具有较好的空间性能和时间性能.