A software based simulation for cleaner production: A game between manufacturers and government

This paper shows how game theory could be applied to better assess the various strategies available to government and manufacturers to promote more environmentally friendly products through cleaner production by examining several different game scenarios . In order to demonstrate the problem situation of cleaner production more visually, the ‘Gambit’ software package is used to simulate the created game models conceived as “two person non-cooperative” games. The application of game theory is shown to provide a useful insight into strategic decision making by both government and manufacturers. The limitation of the game model and the associated analysis is also discussed, laying a foundation for further work.     

欧盟城市饮用水供应链风险管理与评价及其借鉴

结合欧盟2006年起开展的TECHNEAU(Technology Enabled Universal Access to Safe Water)项目,介绍了欧盟城市"从水源到用户的饮用水供应链"风险管理机制,以及"风险识别、评估、减缓和控制"综合风险评价框架;并从水源地、水处理系统、配水系统、历史风险事件、风险评价方法、评价结果6方面比较了捷克、德国、荷兰、挪威、瑞典5个国家典型城市风险评价实践,着重分析了瑞典哥特堡市风险评价中采用的综合概率故障树法和客户损失时间指数方法及其应用价值。总结了欧盟饮用水供应链的风险管理在全过程管理策略、"关口前移"管理方针、多样性的风险评价方法与技术、参与主体多元化、评价结果公开透明5个方面的成功做法和经验,可供国内参考。     

供应链风险研究

供应链作为一种参与市场竞争的有效模式 ,已经被许多企业接受。但是 ,由于供应链链式结构的特点 ,使得供应链存在很大的风险 ,供应链企业相互依赖、相互影响 ,任何一个环节出现问题都会波及整个供应链。笔者总结了供应链风险的主要来源 ,给出了供应链风险的评估方法 ,并进行了应用分析 ,提出了防范供应链风险的对策     

Carbon dioxide pipelines: A statistical analysis of historical accidents

Carbon dioxide pipeline is an essential carrier in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). Statistically revealing the accident rate and risk of carbon dioxide pipelines is conducive to integrity management. Based on 112 accident records collected from Pipeline & Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, this work analyzes the frequency, rate, and risk of accidents. In addition, the impact of relevant factors on risk is further discussed. Some primary conclusions are as follows: (1) For carbon dioxide pipelines, the leak is the leading form of accident. Most carbon emissions are generated in the form of leakage, but economic losses are mainly generated in other forms. (2) The pipelines that have been in service for 0–10 years have the highest frequency of accidents and the highest proportion of carbon emissions, but the pipelines that have been in service for 11–20 years have caused the most economic losses. (3) Among the accident causes, the number of accidents caused by equipment failure is the highest, while the economic loss caused by natural force damage is the highest, and the carbon emission caused by material failure is the highest.     

供应链食品安全管理自适应系统的结构设计

食品供应链是食品安全监管体系的重要组成部分和载体。本文探讨了自适应系统理论在供应链食品质量安全管理方面应用的可能性;针对目前的食品安全问题,依照自适应原理,设计了食品安全的自适应系统,该系统含有两套自适应的子系统,即低成本常规食品安全管理系统和高成本食品安全突发事件控制预测系统;两套子系统所采用的规则集不同,但可相互通讯,共享跟踪系统及其所采集的数据。整个系统最终输出的是安全供应渠道,与供应链决策系统中的成本、需求方向、生产计划等一起构成决定食品原材料供应来源的因素。系统以人工神经网络为自适应系统的主体,判断安全的食品供应结点并预测突发性食品安全问题;同时,提出了实现上述功能的一种可能的系统结构,以期有效实现食品安全的动态反应和控制,为完善我国食品质量安全管理提供新的思路。     

Application of game theory in risk management of urban natural gas pipelines

This paper presents a game theory methodology for risk management of urban natural gas pipelines, which is a collaborative participation mechanism of the stakeholders, including government, pipeline companies, and the public. Firstly, the involvement proportion of stakeholders in risk management under rational conditions is estimated by the static game theory. Subsequently, the system dynamics (SD) simulation is used to establish an evolution game model of stakeholders in risk management under the irrational conditions, in which the stability of the evolution game process is analyzed. The stakeholders’ involvement proportions from the static game model are utilized as the inputs for the evolution game model to simulate the dynamic evolution behavior of risk management strategies with different involvement proportions of stakeholders. Eventually, the dynamic evaluation game can extract an optimal strategy for risk management of urban natural gas pipelines. A case study is used to illustrate the methodology. In essence, this methodology can be extended for implementing risk management of urban infrastructure.     

环境因素对供应链中生产者食品安全行为的影响机制仿真分析

通过食品安全环境因素的改善和规范,来提高食品安全效果是具有现实意义的。本文归纳了影响食品安全的环境因素,特别是影响生产者食品安全行为的环境因素;环境因素对供应链食品安全的影响主要体现在生产者食品安全行为的选择上,为此,设计了环境因素对供应链生产者食品安全行为影响机制;为了分析环境因素对供应链中生产者食品安全的影响,从生产者食品安全行为的影响机制中选取了消费者食品安全意愿、生产者市场占有率、罚款金额等环境因素,以生鲜蔬果供应链中覆盖流通领域的那个部分提出了生产者食品安全行为选择策略的仿真模型,使用Netlogo软件进行了多主体仿真。通过仿真发现,食品监管的手法还宜细化,提升技术因素可以有效改善中国的食品安全水平。     

供应链库存管理中的风险问题研究

库存风险是供应链库存管理中的一个基本问题 ,笔者通过对供应链的不确定性及其对库存风险影响的分析与探讨 ,提出了实施库存集中控制 ,能够汇集需求 ,提高需求预测的准确度 ,降低需求的变动性 ,从而在不影响管理服务水平的同时 ,降低安全库存 ,以实现风险分担。     

新民市柳河水源地水环境健康风险评价

为了评价新民柳河水源地的供水安全,简要介绍水环境健康风险评价基本方法的基础上,建立了水环境健康风险评价模式.研究结果表明:①柳河水源地地面水基因毒物质为优先控制污染物;而地下水应着力控制躯体毒物质.②对于基因毒物质,监测断面优先控制污染物为As和Cr;而对于躯体毒物质,所有监测断面的优先控制污染物均为氨.③在所有监测断面中,柳河上断面等6处有毒污染物所致健康危害的个人年总风险数量级为10-5-10-4.在日后的管理过程中,应对这6处加大治理力度.④目前环境健康风险评价还没有包括在常规环境评价工作中,建议在今后的评价工作中应该逐步开展这方面的工作,以提高供水安全.     

基于多维云模型的埋地并行油气管道风险评价研究*

为提高风险评价准确性以有效支撑管道完整性维护,保证油气管道在多管并行敷设下安全运行,提出1种基于博弈论-多维云模型的风险评价方法。首先,从并行间距、土壤压实度、土壤导热系数、介质流速、管径、埋深、应急响应时间、上下游截断阀间距等方面建立并行管道风险评价指标体系,为降低传统赋权方法的主观性,通过结合熵权法改进层次分析法（AHP）,从而确定主客观权重,再经博弈论组合赋权法综合计算指标权重;其次,运用多维云模型理论确定风险等级,通过修正各风险评分项的等级区间结合指标权重,计算出各级的综合确定度,并进行等级评判;最后,将该方法应用于工程实例。研究结果表明:所评价管段的指标风险处于中等风险水平,风险可接受,管段的整体风险评价结果良好,有利于并行管道安全管理;实例证明该评价方法具有较好的适用性。     

Life cycle optimisation (LCO) of product systems with consideration of occupational fatalities

With the increasing pressures imposed upon industries on the environmental impacts of the manufacturing industry and chemical processes, numerous methodologies have been developed for the quantification, assessment and minimisation of waste and emissions. Meanwhile, methods for the simultaneous maximisation of economic performance within a product life cycle have also been developed. Similarly, various methodologies for screening of process alternatives based on the above factors have also been developed. However, the human lives put at risk in a supply chain constituting a life cycle tend to be overlooked as a factor of assessment, selection and optimisation of the process. Despite having life cycle assessment (LCA) methodologies for environmental assessment, no methodology has been developed for the minimisation of work-related casualties due to the unpredictable nature of workplace accidents. To address this problem, this paper develops a multi-objective optimisation model that utilises realistic statistical data for estimating the best possible pathway. The model results in the least potential fatality directly involved within the product life cycle while simultaneously minimising operating costs throughout the entire life cycle. A case study involving the utilisation of palm-based biomass formed for the production of value-added green products in Malaysia is used to demonstrate the model.     

机场不停航施工安全监管策略博弈分析

为了有效提高机场不停航施工的安全监管效果,减少施工人员不安全行为,结合机场不停航施工特点,充分考虑安全监管和施工人员的有限理性及心理作用,基于前景理论和心理账户理论对传统博弈价值感知矩阵进行优化,进而构建安全监管演化博弈模型并对关键因素的影响情况进行模拟仿真研究。研究结果表明:决策群体初始安全能力、低估安全事故损失、安全监管和施工成本等因素对安全施工和监管行为策略选择的影响显著。机场管理部门和施工单位可以从提高工作人员安全能力,加强安全知识宣讲、警示教育、心理疏导,努力降低监管和施工成本等方面入手,进一步完善机场不停航施工安全管理和相应监管制度,充分引导施工和监管人员从事安全生产,遵守安全管理规定。     

Carbon capture and storage-desirability from a risk management point of view

Environmental and safety risks related to carbon capture and storage concern leakages and accidental releases during transport and geological storage. Based on principles widely accepted in the EU and beyond in the discussion about the where’s and why’s of nuclear waste repositories, this paper discusses the desirability of carbon capture and storage from a risk management point of view, focusing on environmental risks on the global level (climate change). On this basis it is concluded that, if the key energy issue of coming generations, not just in Europe but all around the world, is not the abundance of fossil resources but rather an unacceptably high probability of global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, then the solution should not include any massive hiding of the emissions but entirely focus on the avoidance based on improved technology in power plants and other industrial installations.     

Multi-objective synthesis of a company's supply network by accounting for several environmental footprints

This contribution presents the multi-objective synthesis of a company's supply network by integrating renewables (biomass and other waste, and solar energy) and accounting for several environmental footprints. The synthesis is based on a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) problem. A previously developed model by the authors for achieving energy self-sufficiency by integrating renewables into companies’ supply networks has been extended for the evaluation of environmental impacts, such as energy, carbon, nitrogen, and water footprints. The achievement of an energy self-sufficient supply network has been considered whilst significantly reducing environmental impacts.The presented model is applied to multinational poultry-meat producing company. Direct (burdening) and indirect (unburdening) effects that form total effects on the environment are considered for the evaluation of environmental footprints. The results showed significant unburdening of the environment in terms of carbon and nitrogen footprints but, however, higher burdening in terms of the water footprint.     

基于改进JHA铜冶炼维修作业风险辨识与信息化应用

基于能量意外释放论,提出改进的JHA风险辨识方法。在按设备结构划分维修作业后,不划分作业步骤,而是根据风险来源进行辨识,实现了辨识的实用性和系统全面性。基于辨识结果,建立信息化维修作业风险信息数据库,并作为《检修项目指令书》安全措施的信息支撑。实践表明,改进的JHA辨识方法是有效的,信息化应用改变了经验式的《检修项目指令书》,提高了风险管控的有效性。     

安全生产科学管理的发展与趋势探讨

安全科学管理是保障安全生产的重要支柱。安全管理理论的发展经历了事故学理论、技术危险理论、系统风险理论、本质安全理论四个发展阶段;安全管理学的进步形成了经验管理、制度管理、科学管理、文化管理四种模式;安全管理技术方法的发展建立了政治的、行政的、法制的、经济的、科学的、文化的六大方法体系。在当下和未来一定时期内,为了实现科学、全面、系统、高效的安全生产超前式及预防型管理,RBS/M-基于风险的管控将是安全生产管理必须和必然的发展趋势。从国外和国内双重视野,基于国际化和本土化结合的角度,总结探讨了安全管理理论和技术方法的发展和趋势。期望安全软科学得到进一步的重视和发展。     

基于双重预防机制优化企业安全管理研究

为优化企业安全管理,提高安全管理效率,减少事故的发生和降低事故造成后果的严重程度,本文根据双重预防机制的要求和对企业安全管理的研究,采用危险源辨识、事故因果连锁论、安全风险分级和层次分析等方法,通过对可能导致事故发生的各阶段子事件进行分析,研究系统性的危险源辨识、辨析临界事故发生的紧急情况事件、各事件安全风险分级标准和安全管理资源分配等问题。结果表明:企业安全管理体系的优化理论可结合企业实际情况,形成企业自查自改自治的闭环安全管理体系,提高企业对风险管控的效果;并且优化后的安全管理方法对管理资源的利用更为科学,可提高企业安全管理工作的效率。     

空调新技术对碳排放量影响的探讨

从对碳排放量影响的角度探讨空调新技术较之常规空调技术的区别,以典型的夏热冬冷地区武汉为例,具体计算了6个应用不同空调技术的工程实例.结果表明,地源热泵、水源热泵、变频技术、蓄能技术、热回收技术在空调系统中的运用能够有效地减少碳排放量,提出了空调系统能耗系数与碳排放量的经验关系式,给出了实现绿色空调的措施.     

供应链信息风险的形成机理和防范对策

笔者首先论述了供应链的信息风险 ,即牛鞭效应 ,供应链中的逆向选择、败德行为 ;然后分别从管理学角度、经济学理论、系统论分析了供应链信息风险形成的机理 ;最后 ,根据信息风险的机理 ,通过利用现代信息技术 ,建立激励机制 ,签定合同中防范牛鞭效应 ,防范供应链中的逆向选择和败德行为的发生。     

基于博弈-可拓理论的隧道围岩稳定性评价

针对隧道围岩稳定性评价的模糊性和主观影响问题，建立基于博弈-可拓理论的隧道围岩稳定性评价模型。该模型采用岩石单轴抗压强度、岩体质量指标、完整性系数、体积节理数、声波纵波波速值、地下水渗水量作为隧道围岩稳定性评价指标，运用关联函数法、熵权法和改进层次分析法单独计算各个指标的权系数，利用博弈论组合赋权确定所得3个权系数的最优组合权系数，以此计算出待评隧道围岩关于各稳定性等级的加权关联度，根据计算结果判定待评隧道围岩稳定性等级。实例计算表明:运用博弈-可拓理论评价隧道围岩稳定性等级，综合了主客观因素，使评价结果更为合理可靠，为隧道风险控制与安全管理提供了新的依据。