案例—数据集成驱动的CI抗灾能力评估指标选择

关键基础设施（CI）是维持社会大系统正常运行的重要组成部分,是复杂的网络巨系统,而CI抗灾能力评估指标需具有系统性、客观性和一致性。案例驱动与数据驱动在能力评估指标选择中各有优势,亦相互支持。依靠案例驱动,可以把握历史经验,引导CI抗灾能力评估的情景设计及全局指标选择改进;借助数据驱动,可以发现潜在的微观指标,通过数据分析引导抗灾能力评估微观指标体系改进与完善。集成这2种评估驱动方法,提出CI抗灾能力评估指标选择的案例-数据集成驱动框架,并结合用例验证评估方法的有效性。     

Does your facility have a dust problem: Methods for evaluating dust explosion hazards

The hazards of dust explosions prevailing in plants are dependent on a large variety of factors that include process parameters, such as pressure, temperature and flow characteristics, as well as equipment properties, such as geometry layout, the presence of moving elements, dust explosion characteristics and mitigating measures. A good dust explosion risk assessment is a thorough method involving the identification of all hazards, their probability of occurrence and the severity of potential consequences. The consequences of dust explosions are described as consequences for personnel and equipment, taking into account consequences of both primary and secondary events.While certain standards cover all the basic elements of explosion prevention and protection, systematic risk assessments and area classifications are obligatory in Europe, as required by EU ATEX and Seveso II directives. In the United States, NFPA 654 requires that the design of the fire and explosion safety provisions shall be based on a process hazard analysis of the facility, process, and the associated fire or explosion hazards. In this paper, we will demonstrate how applying such techniques as SCRAM (short-cut risk analysis method) can help identify potentially hazardous conditions and provide valuable assistance in reducing high-risk areas. The likelihood of a dust explosion is based on the ignition probability and the probability of flammable dust clouds arising. While all possible ignition sources are reviewed, the most important ones include open flames, mechanical sparks, hot surfaces, electric equipment, smoldering combustion (self-ignition) and electrostatic sparks and discharges. The probability of dust clouds arising is closely related to both process and dust dispersion properties.Factors determining the consequences of dust explosions include how frequently personnel are present, the equipment strength, implemented consequence-reducing measures and housekeeping, as risk assessment techniques demonstrate the importance of good housekeeping especially due to the enormous consequences of secondary dust explosions (despite their relatively low probability). The ignitibility and explosibility of the potential dust clouds also play a crucial role in determining the overall risk.Classes describe both the likelihood of dust explosions and their consequences, ranging from low probabilities and limited local damage, to high probability of occurrence and catastrophic damage. Acceptance criteria are determined based on the likelihood and consequence of the events. The risk assessment techniques also allow for choosing adequate risk reducing measures: both preventive and protective. Techniques for mitigating identified explosions risks include the following: bursting disks and quenching tubes, explosion suppression systems, explosion isolating systems, inerting techniques and temperature control. Advanced CFD tools (DESC) can be used to not only assess dust explosion hazards, but also provide valuable insight into protective measures, including suppression and venting.     

广西山口红树林生态自然保护区海域沉积物重金属污染状况及潜在生态风险评价

为了解山口红树林生态自然保护区海域沉积物重金属的污染特征,于2018年1-8月采集表层沉积物,分析了沉积物中Cu、Zn、Pb、Cd、Cr、Hg、As的含量。采用单因子污染指数评价法和潜在生态风险指数法进行重金属污染现状和生态风险评价。根据《海洋沉积物质量》GB18668-2002一类标准评价结果,干季、湿季超标的环境因子均为油类、有机碳、硫化物,其余环境因子均小于1,有较大的环境容量。根据潜在生态风险评价结果,干季、湿季各站位重金属综合潜在生态风险指数均小于150,沉积物重金属的潜在生态风险程度较轻,属于低风险范畴。     

活性炭常温吸附实验研究

活性炭因有较大的比表面积和经济易得性,常作为气体吸附法净化气体的吸附剂。SO2是大气环境质量指示的一个重要大气环境因子,其排放被严格控制。SO2的吸附受多种因素影响,本研究选取商品粒状活性炭作为样品,在常温、常压、相对湿度RH=0%、用SO2标气和N2模拟配制气体的条件下,进行了活性炭物理吸附SO2的穿透曲线和吸附容量的研究,结果显示该商品活性炭实验吸附穿透曲线和吸附容量随其颗粒直径的减小而增加,吸附曲线也由陡峭变平坦。所得实验结果为商品活性炭的使用提供实验数据支撑。     

Integration of fuzzy reliability analysis and consequence simulation to conduct risk assessment

Losses of containment within the natural gas network, located in most populated areas, could cause environmental damage, injuries, or even death. Accordingly, it is pivotal to adopt proper approaches to assess and mitigate the risk arising from potential losses. Within this context, it is required to exploit solid reliability and consequence analysis techniques. To this end, this paper presents a methodology established on the integration of a Fuzzy Bayesian Network and consequence simulation. The Bayesian Network is more flexible and realistic than classic approaches because it can consider conditional probabilities and prior information. Furthermore, Leaky Noisy-OR Gates are exploited to allow an easier filling of the Conditional Probability Tables. This task is performed through expert elicitation, adopting Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set Theory and Similarity Aggregation Method. Finally, the severity analysis is performed via a software, named Safeti, which provides an accurate evaluation of the consequences. To show the applicability of the framework, a pressure regulator of a Natural Gas Regulating and Metering Station is considered as case study. The proposed approach can assist asset managers in evaluating the risk arising from the operations, and, accordingly, it can guide them in making maintenance-related decisions to assure the safety of the operations.     

生态安全评价系统及工作程序

全球范围内生态安全形势越来越严峻 ,某些区域生态安全态势已经威胁到人类的生存与可持续发展。生态安全评价研究越来越受到研究人员的关注。笔者从系统工程角度出发 ,提出了生态安全评价系统的新概念 ,介绍了组成生态安全评价系统的 5个要素 ,即评价主体、评价对象、评价目的、评价标准和评价方法 ,并探讨了生态安全评价工作程序 ,将为区域生态安全评价的研究与应用提供理论基础。     

水资源承载力动态变化分析

水资源承载力是一个国家或地区持续发展过程中各种资源承载力的重要组成部分,是决定人类经济社会发展速度和规模的重要因素.应用模糊综合评价方法对山西全省2000-2006年水资源承载力的动态变化进行了分析评价.结果表明山西省水资源开发利用总体上已达到相当高的规模,接近其开发容量,因此迫切需要实施全面节水战略,以保证全省社会经济的可持续发展.     

基于地震动参数的大型储罐潜在危险性评估方法研究

建设项目安全条件分析中有关自然条件影响分析内容通常采取定性方法加以研究。以地震对大型储罐造成的潜在危险性评估为研究对象,从地震动作用下储罐结构动力响应及破坏特征入手,详细介绍了美国联邦应急管理署(FEMA)开发的HAZUS-MH中的震害危险评估框架及理论模型。重点阐述了地震反应谱、承灾体脆弱性曲线、能力曲线以及需求曲线在危险性评估过程的应用及参数设定。以某大型低温液化气储罐为例,定量计算了地震潜在破坏程度及概率,借此说明该震害危险性评估框架和方法对我国安全评价工作的借鉴意义。     

Negative carbon via Ocean Afforestation

Ocean Afforestation, more precisely Ocean Macroalgal Afforestation (OMA), has the potential to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations through expanding natural populations of macroalgae, which absorb carbon dioxide, then are harvested to produce biomethane and biocarbon dioxide via anaerobic digestion. The plant nutrients remaining after digestion are recycled to expand the algal forest and increase fish populations. A mass balance has been calculated from known data and applied to produce a life cycle assessment and economic analysis. This analysis shows the potential of Ocean Afforestation to produce 12 billion tons per year of biomethane while storing 19 billion tons of CO₂ per year directly from biogas production, plus up to 34 billion tons per year from carbon capture of the biomethane combustion exhaust. These rates are based on macro-algae forests covering 9% of the world's ocean surface, which could produce sufficient biomethane to replace all of today's needs in fossil fuel energy, while removing 53 billion tons of CO₂ per year from the atmosphere, restoring pre-industrial levels. This amount of biomass could also increase sustainable fish production to potentially provide 200 kg/yr/person for 10 billion people. Additional benefits are reduction in ocean acidification and increased ocean primary productivity and biodiversity.     

Addressing emerging risks using carbon capture and storage as an example

The European iNTeg-Risk project is a large-scale integrated project aimed at improving the management of emerging risks related to new technologies in European industry. The project aims to build a new management paradigm for emerging risks as a set of principles supported by a common language, agreed tools and methods, and key performance indicators, all integrated into a single framework. It is using a number of Emerging Risk Representative Applications (ERRAs), or case studies, to inform the development of the framework; one of which concerns the carbon capture and storage (CCS) process.This paper describes the iNTeg-Risk CCS ERRA. Relevant hazards and properties of carbon dioxide are described and the emerging risks from CCS are discussed. Three new tools have been developed or trialled within the ERRA. These are: the DyPASI methodology for taking account of atypical (not usually identified) events during hazard identification; a methodology for including the time dimension in a risk assessment; and life-cycle approaches for risk management and communication. For CCS, the risk assessment needs to include both short-term potential accidents from capture, transport or injection, as well as very long-term risks from storage. Knowledge gaps which are generic to emerging risks are also identified.     

核电厂主控室数字化对人执行状态评估任务影响

核电厂主控室进行数字化变革后,操纵员执行状态评估任务的方式发生了巨大变化。为了有效地识别及评估数字化对状态评估的潜在影响,以知觉/循环、资源限制等认知理论为基础,以贝叶斯概率网络为工具,建立状态评估可靠度的影响因素模型。定性分析这些因素对状态评估任务的影响机制,并定量比较它们的影响程度。分析结果表明,界面管理任务和任务负荷变迁,对状态评估的影响最为显著。需采取针对性的措施,优先处理这些人因问题,以最大限度地提高数字化核电厂的安全水平。     

A novel approach based on non-parametric resampling with interval analysis for large engineering project risks

The issue of risk assessment has been always the matter of debate in large engineering projects (LEPs). The assessment is an indispensable means for the projects to accomplish their objectives. It is firmly accepted that LEPs are particularly subject to more potential risks than other business activities because of their complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity. These characteristics are often conducive to small sample sizes of the gathered risk data in practice. Consequently, traditional statistical techniques cannot contribute significantly to analyze the risk data. The non-parametric resampling technique, namely bootstrap, has been used subsequently to solve numerous complicated problems and evaluate the accuracy of a parameter estimator in situations where commonly used techniques are not valid. It is also more natural, applicable and simple to estimate the risk data in an interval form under decision-making process by considering the concept of safety by professional experts in LEPs. Hence, in this paper, a new approach based on bootstrap technique with the interval analysis is presented in the context of the project risk assessment. The proposed approach not only plays an important role in reducing risk data and saving time but also is more economical. A real case study is conducted to illustrate the applicability of the approach. Finally, the comparison results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms the traditional technique in terms of the accuracy and efficiency.     

纳米TiO2治理室内甲醛的实验研究

利用纳米材料TiO2对室内甲醛进行了治理研究。测定了TiO2在不同吸附剂量、吸附时间时的吸附效率、穿透时间和吸附容量。将TiO2、活性炭对甲醛的吸附效果进行了对比，结果表明，纳米材料TiO2对甲醛的吸附率比相同质量的活性炭高10％-15％；当吸附时间为13h时，TiO2对甲醛的吸附量比活性炭高28％；穿透时间比活性炭长2h。利用SEM图谱进行了机理分析。     

Study on the methodology for evaluating urban and regional disaster carrying capacity and its application

During the past several decades, most cities and regions in the world have been experiencing constant growing rates of congregation of population, production and wealth, thus becoming more vulnerable and fragile when facing sudden accidents and disasters. Hence there is an urgent requirement for the innovation that provides better quantitative assessment techniques for evaluating the capacity of a city or region to carry accidents and disasters. The paper aims to put forward a quantitative evaluation approach for urban & regional disaster carrying capacity (UR-DCC) from the viewpoint of disaster prevention, resistance, rescue and recovery. Based on the analysis of urban & regional disaster theory and influencing factors of carrying capacity, a structured and layered evaluation index system was established. Through multi-factor modeling theory, the weight of each factor as well as its influence on the whole system was analyzed, the method of index weight analysis was also improved, and an evaluation model for disaster carrying capacity (DCC) was founded. Finally, an application of the model was demonstrated to determine the parameters of all indices by using numerous first-hand data and information obtained from field investigations. It’s proven that the results of the research is in correspondence with the reality, effective to reflect the weakest points during the process of disaster management, and the evaluation model can be of significant value to improve UR-DCC.     

基于风险和应急准备能力评估的 应急救援能力建设

为提升我国应对综合自然灾害的应急响应与救援能力,笔者首先指出我国目前在应急准备能力评估和应急救援能力建设方面存在的主要问题;然后以地震为例,提出应急准备能力评估的指标体系框架、指标分类及评价方法,通过评估找出现存能力差距,开展基于风险评估和应急准备能力评估的应对综合自然灾害的救援能力建设。研究表明:开展基于风险和应急准备能力评估的救援能力建设能实现重特大自然灾害快速有效响应与指挥调度能力,极大提升我国重特大自然灾害的应对能力。     

生态风险与生态安全的评价方法及前景

各种生态环境问题的严重后果引起了人们对环境与生态的重视,并催生了生态风险与生态安全评价.为了更好地进行这两方面的评价,首先分别综述生态风险和生态安全评价的发展进程,突出主要研究方法的介绍,由此总结生态风险评价与生态安全评价的关系以及生态风险与生态安全评价的发展趋势.生态风险评价主要有健康危险度法、环评指数法、景观生态法、空间统计或地统计法、相对风险模型等方法;生态安全评价主要有综合指数法、景观生态法、生态承载力和生态足迹方法、突变级数等方法.生态风险与生态安全评价是从相反的角度研究生态系统的状况和潜在威胁,生态风险评价偏重细节分析,生态安全评价偏重整体分析.空间和时间尺度的扩大、评价方法的改进、评价标准的制定和评价的可信性检验都是生态风险评价与生态安全评价的发展趋势.     

陕京二线输气管道风险预评价

采用EST法对建设中的陕京二线输气管道进行了风险评价,得到了管道的高风险区段.通过对评价结果的分析,得出了造成各管段风险值较高的原因,并提出了相应控制措施.     

Targeting for optimal grid-wide deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) techniques are considered as one of the promising approaches to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuel based power generation, which still accounts for a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions in the world. CCS technology can be used to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, with the additional advantage that it allows continuing use reliable and inexpensive fossil fuels. However, CCS retrofit entails major capital costs as well as a reduction of overall thermal efficiency and power output. Thus, it is essential for planning purposes to implement the minimal extent of CCS retrofit while meeting the specified carbon emission limits for the power sector. At the same time, it is necessary to plan for compensatory power generation capacity to offset energy losses resulting from CCS retrofit. In this paper, an algebraic targeting technique is presented for planning of grid-wide CCS retrofits in the power generation sector with compensatory power. The targeting technique is developed based on pinch analysis. In addition, the proposed methodologies are illustrated through case studies based on grid data in India and the Philippines. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the suitable CCS technology and compensatory power source which satisfy emission limits.     

EU initiative on the control of major accident hazards arising from pipelines

The European Council and the Parliament recognised that pipeline accidents had occurred in Europe and worldwide, which clearly indicated the `major accident hazard' potential of pipelines. The present paper presents an overview of the Community Policy on the control of major accident hazards arising from pipelines, summarises the Commission review/assessment of existing legislation on pipelines within the Member States and outlines the principles on which a possible EU initiative should be based. The review has shown that many Member States do not have comprehensive `major accident hazard' legislation in place for pipelines and therefore an EU initiative would complete existing industrial risk management legislation, based on the `precautionary principle'.     

健康风险暴露评价研究进展

综述了国内外健康风险暴露评价的最新研究进展,重点讨论了对人体进行直接监测的生物监测技术和对环境中污染因子进行间接监测并利用数学模型进行暴露剂量计算的间接方法。生物监测方法通过测定人体生理介质(如血液、尿液)中的污染物质及其代谢产物含量确定人体对环境污染物的暴露情况,监测结果反映了风险因子通过所有暴露途径进入人体的总暴露剂量。为了利用生物监测结果评价人体暴露安全性,近几年建立了生物监测等效值的概念,推导确定化学物质的生物监测等效值发展迅速。环境监测和数学模型间接方法通过对不同暴露媒介中风险因子的浓度监测和特定暴露途径的量化研究,同时利用精确的暴露计算模型(如空气分散模型、地下水扩散模型)计算人体对污染物的暴露剂量。生物监测和环境监测技术及数学模型的发展使健康风险评价和管理的暴露参数更加精确,降低了风险评价的不确定性。还介绍了利用数学模拟和剂量重建等方法插补历史空白暴露数据的方法。