Modelling forest–savanna mosaic dynamics in man-influenced environments: effects of fire,climate and soil heterogeneity

Forests and savannas are the major ecotypes in humid tropical regions. Under present climatic conditions, forest is in a phase of natural expansion over savanna, but traditional human activities, especially fires, have strongly influenced the succession. We here present a new model, FORSAT, dedicated to the forest–savanna mosaic on a landscape scale and based on stochastic modelling of key processes (fire and succession cycle) and consistent with common field data. The model is validated by comparison between the qualitative emergent behaviour of the model and results of biogeographical field studies. Three types of forest succession are shown: progression of the forest edge, formation and coalescence of clumps in savanna and global afforestation of savanna. The parameters (frequency of savanna fires, climate and soil fertility) appear to have comparable effects and there is a sharp threshold between a forest edge progression scenario and the cluster formation one. Moreover, pioneer seed dispersal pattern and recruitment are determinant: peaked curves near a seed source and far dispersal combine to increase the fitness of the pioneers.     

Are ecological groups of species optimal for forest dynamics modelling?

The huge diversity of tree species in tropical rain-forests makes the modelling of its dynamics a difficult task. One-way to deal with it is to define species groups. A classical approach for building species groups consists in grouping species with nearby characteristics, using cluster analysis. A group of species is then characterized by the same list of attributes as a single species, and it is incorporated in the model of forest dynamics in the same way as a single species. In this paper, a new approach for building species group is proposed. It relies on the discrepancy between model predictions when all species are considered separately, and model predictions when species groups are used. An aggregation error that quantifies the bias in model predictions that results from species grouping is thus defined. We then define the optimal species grouping as the one that minimizes the aggregation error. Using data from a tropical rain-forest in French Guiana and a toy model of forest dynamics, this new method for species grouping is confronted to the classical method based on cluster analysis of the species characteristics, and to a combined method based on a cluster analysis that uses the aggregation error as a dissimilarity between species. The optimal species grouping is quite different from the classical species grouping. The ecological interpretation of the optimal groups is difficult, as there is no direct linkage between the species characteristics and the way that they are grouped. The combined approach yields species groups that are closed to the optimal ones, with much less computations. The optimal species groups are thus specific to the model of forest dynamics and lack the generality of those of the classical method, that in turn are not optimal.     

4200 years of pine-dominated upland forest dynamics in west-central Mexico: human or natural legacy?

The pine-dominated forests of west-central Mexico are internationally recognized for their high biodiversity, and some areas are protected through various conservation measures including prohibition of human activity. In this region, however, there is evidence for human settlement dating back to ca. AD 1200. It is therefore unclear whether the present forest composition and structure are part of a successional stage following use by indigenous human populations during the past, or due to natural processes, such as climate. We present a study reconstructing the vegetation dynamics of pine-dominated forest over the past 4200 years using paleoecological techniques. Results from fossil pollen and charcoal indicate that, in this region, pine-dominated forests are the native vegetation type and not anthropogenically derived secondary succession. The predominant driving mechanism for the expansion of pine-dominated forest appears to be intervals of aridity and naturally induced burning. A close association is noted between pine abundance and longer-term climatic trends, including intervals of aridity between ca. 4200 and 2500, 1200 and 850, and 500 and 200 cal yr BP and shorter-term trends. Evident periodicity occurs in pine and Poaceae abundance every 80 years. These short-term quasi-periodic oscillations have been recorded in a number of lake and ocean sediments in Mexico and are thought to be linked to solar forcing resulting in drought cycles that occur at approximately the same time intervals.     

How does the spatial structure of habitat loss affect the eco-epidemic dynamics?

Habitat loss is considered as one of the primary causes of species extinction, especially for a species that also suffers from an epidemic disease. Little attention has been paid to the combined effect of habitat loss and epidemic transmission on the species spatiotemporal dynamics. Here, a spatial model of the parasite–host/prey–predator eco-epidemiological system with habitat loss was studied. Habitat patches in the model, instead of undergoing a random loss, were spatially clustered by different degrees. Not only the quantity of habitat loss but also its clustering degree was shown to affect the equilibrium of the system. The infection rate and the probability of successful predation were keys to determine the spatial patterns of species. The epidemic disease is more likely to break out if only a small amount of suitable patches were lost. Counter-intuitively, infected preys are more sensitive to habitat loss than predators if the lost patches are highly clustered. This result is new to eco-epidemiology and implies a possibility of using spatial arrangement of suitable (or unsuitable) patches to control the spread of epidemics in the ecological system.     

State-of-the-science assessment of non-asbestos amphibole exposure: Is there a cancer risk?

The distinction between amphibole asbestos fibers and non-asbestos amphibole particles has important implications for assessing potential cancer risks associated with exposure to amphibole asbestos or amphibole-containing products. Exposure to amphibole asbestos fibers can pose a cancer risk due to its ability to reside for long periods of time in the deep lung (i.e., biopersistence). In contrast, non-asbestos amphibole particles are usually cleared rapidly from the lung and do not pose similar respiratory risks even at high doses. Most regulatory and public health agencies, as well as scientific bodies, agree that non-asbestos amphiboles possess reduced biological (e.g., carcinogenic) activity. Although non-asbestos amphibole minerals have been excluded historically from Federal regulations, non-asbestos structures may be counted as asbestos fibers on the basis of dimensional criteria specified in analytical protocols. Given the potential to mischaracterize a non-asbestos structure as a “true” asbestos fiber, our objective was to assess whether exposure to non-asbestos amphiboles that may meet the dimensional criteria for counting as a fiber pose a cancer risk similar to amphibole asbestos. We reviewed analytical methods as well as the mineralogical, epidemiological, and toxicological literature for non-asbestos amphiboles. No evidence of demonstrable cancer effects from exposure to non-asbestos amphiboles that may be counted as fibers, under certain assessment protocols, was found. Data gaps (industrial hygiene data for amphibole-exposed cohorts), inconsistencies (analytical laboratory methods/protocols used to count fibers), and sources of potential bias from misclassification of exposure were identified.     

Look before you leap: is risk of injury a foraging cost?

Theory states that an optimal forager should exploit a patch so long as its harvest rate of resources from the patch exceeds its energetic, predation, and missed opportunity costs for foraging. However, for many foragers, predation is not the only source of danger they face while foraging. Foragers also face the risk of injuring themselves. To test whether risk of injury gives rise to a foraging cost, we offered red foxes pairs of depletable resource patches in which they experienced diminishing returns. The resource patches were identical in all respects, save for the risk of injury. In response, the foxes exploited the safe patches more intensively. They foraged for a longer time and also removed more food (i.e., had lower giving up densities) in the safe patches compared to the risky patches. Although they never sustained injury, video footage revealed that the foxes used greater care while foraging from the risky patches and removed food at a slower rate. Furthermore, an increase in their hunger state led foxes to allocate more time to foraging from the risky patches, thereby exposing themselves to higher risks. Our results suggest that foxes treat risk of injury as a foraging cost and use time allocation and daring—the willingness to risk injury—as tools for managing their risk of injury while foraging. This is the first study, to our knowledge, which explicitly tests and shows that risk of injury is indeed a foraging cost. While nearly all foragers may face an injury cost of foraging, we suggest that this cost will be largest and most important for predators.     

Biogeochemical transfer and dynamics of iodine in a soil–plant system

Radioactive iodide (¹²⁵I) is used as a tracer to investigate the fate and transport of iodine in soil under various leaching conditions as well as the dynamic transfer in a soil–plant (Chinese cabbage) system. Results show that both soils (the paddy soil and the sandy soil) exhibit strong retention capability, with the paddy soil being slightly stronger. Most iodine is retained by soils, especially in the top 10 cm, and the highest concentration occurs at the top most section of the soil columns. Leaching with 1–2 pore volume water does not change this pattern of vertical distributions. Early breakthrough and long tailing are two features observed in the leaching experiments. Because of the relatively low peak concentration, the early breakthrough is really not an environmental concern of contamination to groundwater. The long tailing implies that the retained iodine is undergoing slow but steady release and the soils can provide a low but stable level of mobile iodine after a short period. The enrichment factors of ¹²⁵I in different plant tissues are ranked as: root > stem > petiole > leaf, and the ¹²⁵I distribution in the young leaves is obviously higher than that in the old ones. The concentrations of ¹²⁵I in soil and Chinese cabbage can be simulated with a dual-chamber model very well. The biogeochemical behaviors of iodine in the soil-cabbage system show that cultivating iodized cabbage is an environmentally friendly and effective technique to eliminate iodine deficiency disorders (IDD). Planting vegetables such as cabbage on the ¹²⁹I-contaminated soil could be a good remediation technique worthy of consideration.     

Effects of time since fire on birds: how informative are generalized fire response curves for conservation management?

Fire is both a widespread natural disturbance that affects the distribution of species and a tool that can be used to manage habitats for species. Knowledge of temporal changes in the occurrence of species after fire is essential for conservation management in fire-prone environments. Two key issues are: whether postfire responses of species are idiosyncratic or if multiple species show a limited number of similar responses; and whether such responses to time since fire can predict the occurrence of species across broad spatial scales. We examined the response of bird species to time since fire in semiarid shrubland in southeastern Australia using data from surveys at 499 sites representing a 100-year chronosequence. We used nonlinear regression to model the probability of occurrence of 30 species with time since fire in two vegetation types, and compared species' responses with generalized response shapes from the literature. The occurrence of 16 species was significantly influenced by time since fire: they displayed six main responses consistent with generalized response shapes. Of these 16 species, 15 occurred more frequently in mid- or later-successional vegetation (> 20 years since fire), and only one species occurred more often in early succession (< 5 years since fire). The models had reasonable predictive ability for eight species, some predictive ability for seven species, and were little better than random for one species. Bird species displayed a limited range of responses to time since fire; thus a small set of fire ages should allow the provision of habitat for most species. Postfire successional changes extend for decades and management of the age class distribution of vegetation will need to reflect this timescale. Response curves revealed important seral stages for species and highlighted the importance of mid- to late-successional vegetation (> 20 years). Although time since fire clearly influences the distribution of numerous bird species, predictive models of the spatial distribution of species in fire-prone landscapes need to incorporate other factors in addition to time since fire.     

Happiness in the air: How does a dirty sky affect mental health and subjective well-being?

Previous studies evaluating the welfare cost of air pollution have not paid much attention to its potential effect on mental health and subjective well-being (SWB). This paper attempts to fill the gap by investigating the impact of air pollution on several key dimensions, including mental health status, depressive symptoms, moment-to-moment happiness, and evaluative happiness. We match a nationwide longitudinal survey in China with local air quality and rich weather conditions according to the exact time and place of survey. By making use of variations in exposure to air pollution for the same individuals over time, we show that air pollution reduces hedonic happiness and increases the rate of depressive symptoms, while life satisfaction has little to do with the immediate air quality. Our results shed light on air pollution as an important contributor to the Easterlin paradox that economic growth may not bring more happiness.     

Open and closed seascapes: where does habitat patchiness create populations with high fractions of self-recruitment?

Which populations are replenished primarily by immigrants (open) and which by local production (closed) remains an important question for management with implications for response to exploitation, protection, and disturbance. However, we lack methods for predicting population openness. Here, we develop a model for openness and show that considering habitat isolation explains the existence of surprisingly closed populations in high-dispersal species, including many marine organisms. Relatively closed populations are expected when patch spacing is more than twice the standard deviation of a species'. dispersal kernel. In addition, natural scales of habitat patchiness on coral reefs are sufficient to create both largely open and largely closed populations. Contrary to some previous interpretations, largely closed marine populations do not require mean dispersal distances that are unusually short, even for species with relatively long pelagic larval durations. We predict that habitat patchiness has strong control over population openness for many marine and terrestrial species with a highly dispersive life stage and relatively sedentary adults. This information can be used to make initial predictions about where populations will be more or less resilient to local exploitation and disturbance.     

Do source-sink dynamics promote the spread of an invasive grass into a novel habitat?

Models of source-sink and other spatial patch dynamics have generated a number of ideas and predictions about species range expansion, the evolution of local adaptation, and the factors influencing population persistence, but relatively few empirical studies have applied these ideas due to the difficulty of measuring both patch-specific demography and movement rates. In this study, I used a combination of mark-recapture experiments, model fitting, and demographic approaches to ask how habitat-specific differences in population growth and dispersal affect spread of the invasive grass Aegilops triuncialis into serpentine environments. A. triuncialis germinated at lower rates but exhibited equivalent survival and greater growth in edge (extreme serpentine) than in core populations, even accounting for density differences between habitats. Estimated growth rates (lambda) for four of five edge subpopulations were strongly positive, ranging from lambda = 1.32 to 2.09 without propagule input from adjacent habitat. Local dispersal was best described by an exponential kernel, with a mean dispersal distance about twice as long on the edge (0.24-0.40 m) as in the core (0.18 m). Twenty-five percent of marked spikes in the edge were not relocated within the patch, suggesting greater rates of either seed predation or long-distance dispersal that reduced population growth. These results suggest that A. triuncialis can successfully spread into extreme serpentine habitats without sustained propagule input from adjacent populations. Further, asymmetric dispersal that may be both habitat- and density-dependent could slow growth rates on the edge. This pattern may also increase the importance of harsh edge patches as a source of long-distance dispersers.     

Partial fertility and polyandry: a benefit of multiple mating hiding in plain sight?

Multiple mating is common in many socially monogamous birds and mammals, but why is still unclear. Fertility insurance is one the posited genetic benefits. However, this mechanism fails if females cannot detect male infertility before mating, and infertile sperm are equally capable of fertilizing eggs (e.g., fertilization occurs but is followed by early developmental arrest): multiple mating simply exchanges whole brood loss for partial brood loss with no difference in the overall proportion of failed offspring. However, I note here that these two options will rarely result in equivalent reproductive success: partial brood loss will generally result in more surviving offspring than whole brood loss vs. whole brood survival due to increasing per capita survival of offspring in smaller broods. A partial fertility strategy can yield benefits even in the extreme case where fertility is cryptic and defective sperm are capable of fertilizing eggs. Moreover, partial fertility will yield an added benefit to fertility insurance when the precedence of fertile over infertile sperm is incomplete.     

Carbon- and oxygen-isotope composition of the cuttlebone of Sepia officinalis: a tool for predicting ecological information?

Analysis of the isotope composition of calcareous structures of marine organisms has proved useful in providing biological data. The present study constitutes the first detailed work undertaken on the isotope composition of coleoid cephalopods. We analysed the carbon- and oxygen-isotope composition [δ¹³C (CO²⁻ ₃) and δ¹⁸O (CO²⁻ ₃), respectively] of the cuttlebone aragonite of wild and cultivated specimens of Sepia officinalis Linnaeus, 1758. δ¹³C (CO²⁻ ₃) ranged from −2.94 to 1.00‰, δ¹⁸O (CO²⁻ ₃) from −0.18 to 2.08‰. The carbon-isotope composition is not in equilibrium with the carbon species of the ambient seawater, and does not reflect the deposition of CaCO₃ in seawater. The potential influence of environmental factors and biological processes on the carbon-isotope composition of the cuttlebone is discussed. In contrast to δ¹³C, the oxygen-isotope composition of cuttlebone aragonite appears to be in isotopic equilibrium with the ambient seawater. Seasonal changes in isotopic temperature revealed by our analyses agreed with changes in the temperature of the ambient seawater. CaCO₃ was deposited all year round. A maximum life span of 2 yr, a year-round spawning season, and variable growth rates among and within individuals have been inferred from the isotopic temperatures. Received: 14 April 1998 / Accepted: 26 November 1998     

Migration of aluminum from food contact materials to food—a health risk for consumers? Part III of III: migration of aluminum to food from camping dishes and utensils made of aluminum

Background

When cooking on a barbecue grill, consumers often use aluminum grill pans. For one, the pan catches the fats and oils that would drip into the embers causing the formation of potentially noxious smoke, and the pan also protects the food from being burned by direct heat from the coals. In addition, new aluminum products for use in ovens and grills are becoming increasingly popular. Due to their light weight and excellent heat transfer camping, utensils made of aluminum are, for example, often used by fishermen and mountain climbers. Preparing food in aluminum utensils can, however, result in migration of the aluminum to the foodstuffs.

Results/Conclusions

In this study presented here, it was found that the transfer limit of 5.00 mg/L for aluminum is not exceeded using simulants for oil or for tap water; however, with an aqueous solution of 0.5% citric acid, the limit is clearly exceeded at 638 mg/L. This means that the Tolerable Weekly Intake (TWI) is exceeded by 298% for a child weighing 15 kg and for an adult weighing 70 kg it is equivalent to 63.8% of the TWI, assuming a daily uptake of 10 mL marinade containing lemon juice over a period of 1 week. Preparation of a fish dish with a marinade containing lemon juice in camping dishes would result in the TWI being exceeded by 871% for a child weighing 15 kg and by 187% for an adult weighing 70 kg assuming a daily uptake of 250 g over a period of 1 week.

     

Migration of aluminum from food contact materials to food—a health risk for consumers? Part II of III: migration of aluminum from drinking bottles and moka pots made of aluminum to beverages

Background

Drinking bottles and stove-top moka pots made of aluminum have become very popular. Storing drinks in bottles and preparing coffee in a moka pot may result in the migration of aluminum to the beverage.

Results/Conclusions

In a systematic study of aluminum drinking bottles, it has been shown that drinking a mixture of apple juice and mineral water in an aluminum bottle may reach 86.6% of the total weekly intake (TWI) for adults, and drinking tea from an aluminum bottle may exceed the TWI (145%) for a child weighing 15 kg. In contrast, preparing coffee in an aluminum moka pot results in a maximum of 4% to TWI, if an average of 3.17 L coffee is consumed per week, even if the pots are washed in the dishwasher, against the explicit instructions of the manufacturer.

     

People’s dependency on forest resources and contributions of forests to the livelihoods: a case study in Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) of Bangladesh

The study was conducted to investigate people’s forest dependency and contributions of forests to the livelihoods in the three hill districts of Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), Bangladesh. The study revealed that forest resources contribute significantly to rural community’s livelihoods and economic well-being. Using generalized logistic regressions, this study has also investigated the socioeconomic factors that affect people’s dependency on forest resources of CHT. The study revealed that people’s income from forest and forest-related occupation was positively aligned with their forest dependency. However, their education level significantly reduced their dependency on forest resources. Thus, educating the forest-dependent people and supporting alternative income generation activities should be appreciated for effective forest management in CHT. This study will be helpful to forest and environmental policy makers for CHT.     

Mass mortality and slow recovery of Diadema antillarum: Could compromised immunity be a factor?

Long-spined sea urchins (Diadema antillarum-a) began dying in January 1983 and over the next year virtually disappeared from the Caribbean. Decades later, Diadema densities remain low, with only very limited recovery in some areas. Ecological extinction of Diadema is a factor in the transformation of coral to barren algae-covered rock that has occurred in the Caribbean during the past 25 years. Working with sea urchins collected from St. Croix, United States Virgin Islands, we asked whether the immune system of Diadema differs from those of other common Caribbean urchins that did not experience the die-off. Using isolated coelomocytes, we tested humoral responses of the urchins with classic stimulators in numerous humoral immune assays. All coelomocytes responded to stimulators—with one notable and statistically significant exception—D. antillarum did not respond to lipopolysaccharide. Our results indicate that Diadema may have a weakness in its humoral defense response that is independent of local stressors and may help explain why Caribbean Diadema was vulnerable to the 1983 epidemic and has shown slow and limited recovery since then.     

Social spacing of crayfish in natural habitats: what role does dominance play?

We examined the impact of dominance on crayfish social spacing and resource control. Spatial distributions of individual crayfish, Orconectes propinquus, were recorded from five sample sites in Douglas Lake, MI, USA. Crayfish populations from each site were collected and then immediately transferred to artificial ponds in order to reproduce potential dominance hierarchies. After 15 h of observation in the artificial ponds, hierarchies were found to stabilize and dominance for each crayfish was scored based on the percentage of total fights an individual won. These dominance scores were then regressed against nearest neighbor distance obtained from field data, crayfish size, and shelter evictions observed during hierarchy formation. Dominant crayfish were found to have greater nearest neighbor distances than lower ranking crayfish. In addition, as the difference in dominance score between nearest neighbors increased, the distance between them also increased. Although claw size was an accurate predictor of dominance, size did not correlate with nearest neighbor distance. Factors such as social dynamics may thus play a larger role in natural crayfish populations than previously thought. Dominant crayfish also performed more shelter evictions during hierarchy formation, which were correlated with nearest neighbor distance, suggesting that eviction by dominant crayfish may enforce spacing. Social status appears to significantly impact crayfish spatial distribution and shelter acquisition such that more dominant crayfish exhibit increased control over space and shelter. Finally, this study suggests the possibility that stable crayfish dominance hierarchies exist in nature.     

Social learning of predators by coral reef fish: does observer number influence acquisition of information?

Prey that are capable of continuously learning the identity of new predators whilst adjusting the intensity of their responses to match their level of risk, are often at a substantive advantage. Learning about predators can occur through direct experience or through social learning from experienced individuals. Social learning provides individuals with an effective means of acquiring information while reducing the costs associated with direct learning. Under a natural setting, social learning is likely to occur between more than two individuals. As such, investigating the effect that group size has on the ability of individuals to acquire information is vital to understanding social learning dynamics. Given the characteristics of coral reefs and the biology of coral reef fishes, these habitats are an ideal medium to test whether group size affects the transmission of information. Using newly settled damselfish (Pomacentrus amboinensis), we examined whether the number of observers present influences transmission of information. We showed that: (1) predator recognition is socially transmitted from predator-experienced to predator-naïve individuals regardless of group size, and that (2) the level of response displayed by the observer does not differ following learning in different sized groups. Our study highlights that information on predator identities is able to be passed onto group members quickly without a dilution of information content.     

A dynamic size-structured population model: does disturbance control size structure of a population of the massive coral Gardineroseris planulata in the Eastern Pacific?

Using a long-term data set of Gardineroseris planulata (Dana) on Uva Island reef, Panamá, we developed a simulation model that relates size-specific schedules of growth and partial mortality to predation by Acanthaster planci (Linnaeus) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related elevation of water temperature. We compared the model predictions to field observations for both the subpopulation of colonies that was used for model development and for the entire population. No statistically significant differences in the size-frequency distributions of the real and modeled coral populations were found for the subpopulation during any of 9 yr or for the entire population during 4 yr. These results suggested that the model relationships were reflecting field conditions. Longer-term (100 yr) simulations were conducted to assess the relative importance of predation and ENSO-related colony losses in determining the size structure of the coral population. Predation by A. planci was of overwhelming importance due to both stronger effects of predation (larger transitions) and the frequency of predation (yearly) compared to ENSO (episodically). Even the least-frequent predation scenario skewed the distribution toward smaller colonies, while simulations where populations were subjected to frequent ENSO events (≥3 yr) still maintained colonies in the largest size class. The model results suggested that sea star predators may not have been in the present abundance on this reef prior to the last 30 yr; with predators present, the model predicts that the distribution would be skewed toward smaller colonies.