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1.
    
ABSTRACT: There is a general belief in the public eye that extreme events such as floods are becoming more and more common. This paper explores this hypothesis by examining the historical evolution of annual expected flooding damage on the Chateauguay River Basin, located at the border between the United States and the province of Quebec, Canada. A database of basin land use was constructed for the years 1930 and 1995 to assess anthropogenic changes and their impact on the basin's hydrology. The progressive modification of the likelihood of a flooding event over the same period was then investigated using homogeneity and statistical tests on available hydrometric data. The evolution of the annual expected flooding damage was then evaluated using a coupled hydrologic/hydraulic simulator linked to a damage analysis model. The simulator and model were used to estimate flooding damage over a wide range of flooding return periods, for conditions prevailing in 1963 and 1995. Results of the analysis reveal the absence of any increasing or decreasing trend in the historical occurrence of flooding events. However, a general increase in the annual expected flooding damage was observed for all studied river sections. This increase is linked to an historical increase in damages for a given flooding event, and is the result of unbridled construction and development within the flood zone. To assess for future trends, this study also examined the potential impacts linked to the anticipated global warming. Results indicate that a significant increase in seasonal flooding events and annual expected flooding damage is possible over the next century. In fact, what is now considered a 100‐year flooding event for the summer/fall season could become a ten‐year event by the end of this century. This shows that potential future impacts linked to climate change should be considered now by engineers, land planners, and decision makers. This is especially critical if a design return period is part of the decision making process.  相似文献   

2.
ABSTRACT: A water use model was developed to estimate water savings from installation of low-flow showerheads and toilet displacement devices in residential housing. The model measures household water use in per capita terms with adjustments for age of occupants, household income, if occupants responsible for direct payment of water bill, and type of water fixtures. Detailed data on 308 single family residences involved with a pilot retrofit program in the Seattle, Washington, area were analyzed. We estimated per capita indoor water use to decline by 6.4 and 2.1 percent from complete installation of low-flow showerheads and toilet displacement devices, respectively.  相似文献   

3.
Addicks and Barker reservoirs were built in the 1940s to protect downtown Houston from flooding and have generally worked very well until 2017 when Hurricane Harvey devastated much of Houston and surroundings with up to 40 inches (102 cm) of rainfall causing flooding of 154,000 homes in over 22 watersheds in Houston/Harris County alone. However, the story of how Addicks and Barker flooded upstream residential areas from a hydrologic standpoint is a harsh lesson in flood infrastructure policy and funding. This failure to protect both downstream properties in Buffalo Bayou and upstream areas behind the dams ended up with tens of thousands of flooded homes and properties, with many having flood waters for over 10 days. This paper explores the main causes for the flooding and addresses the hydrologic issues upstream in both reservoirs. The main causes of flooding were not just related to a massive rainfall event, but also explosive urban expansion of land use upstream of reservoirs, altered and updated reservoir design issues, and lack of governmental action in the years leading up to the disaster. Potential long-term solutions to the flooding and design problems are addressed in this article as well.  相似文献   

4.
    
ABSTRACT: The spatial distribution of hydrogeologic parameter is an important issue in ground water simulation. One of the methods is to divide an area into several zones such that parameters are assumed to be constant within zone. The purpose of this study is to apply Tabu Search (TS) to find the best zonation of parameters that can result in the best ground water simulation. The initial zonation can be determined as the Thiessen method, and then zonation is optimized by T.S. The mean square error between simulated and observed hydraulic heads was used as the objective function. A designed confined aquifer with known zonation was used as an example to test the proposed method. Results indicated that Tabu Search can locate the optimal zonation successfully and avoid being trapped by local optimal zonations. Besides this, four other arbitrary initial zonations can be directed to the optimal zonation by TS, which proves the robustness of the proposed method. The method proposed in this study is feasible and expected to work well in the field problems with sufficient sampling of concerned parameters.  相似文献   

5.
    
This study develops and tests a novel optimization method for optimally selecting and sizing stormwater control measures (SCMs) in urban landscapes for selected design storms. The developed methodology yields SCMs that capture and retain stormwater via onsite percolation, remove stormwater pollutants, and minimize stormwater control expenditures. The resulting environmental optimization problem involves integer and real variables imbedded in an objective function that is subjected to multiple constraints. This study's methodology aims at practicality and ease of implementation in the solution of the SCM sizing and selection optimization problem while taking into account the main factors that govern stormwater management in urban landscapes. The near‐optimal global solution of the SCM selection and design problem is obtained with nonlinear programming and verified with the average of multiple solutions calculated with multiple runs of an optimization evolutionary algorithm. The developed methodology is illustrated with one stormwater project in the City of Los Angeles, California.  相似文献   

6.
ABSTRACT: Under Colorado's appropriative water right system, withdrawals by junior ground water rights must be curtailed to protect senior surface water appropriators sharing the same river system unless the ground water users replace the amount of their injury to the river under an approved plan for augmentation. Compensation of such injury with surface water may not only be expensive but unreliable in dry years. As an alternative, the curtailment of pumping may be obviated by recharging unused surface water into the aquifer when available and withdrawing it when needed. In order to manage such an operation, a practical tool is required to accurately determine that portion of the recharge water that does not return to the river before pumping for irrigation. A digital model was used for this purpose in a demonstration recharge project located in the South Platte River basin in northeastern Colorado. This paper summarizes the experiences gained from this project, the results of the digital model, the economic value of recharge, and the feasibility of the operation. It was determined through the use of the digital model that, with the given conditions in the area, 77 percent of the recharged water remained available for pumping. Economic analyses showed that water could be recharged inexpensively averaging about two dollars per acre foot.  相似文献   

7.
    
Public perceptions about water quantity and water as a common pool resource are understudied in humid regions. As water demand increases, the need to more closely manage water, even in humid areas, will increase, requiring better understanding how people perceive their water supply, how they view paying for water conservation and how water user characteristics influence attitudes. A survey finds correlations between utilizing an individual water source (e.g. well or spring) and attitudes toward water management and conservation. Compared to respondents with a shared water source, those with an individual source believe they are segregated from regional water concerns. They are less willing to pay for water management or conservation measures and less supportive of any government intervention in water management. These results suggest that planners and water managers may face resistance to conservation policies or any policy based on the idea of water as a common pool resource.  相似文献   

8.
    
This study systematically evaluates residential consumer responses to a utility conservation initiative based on an econometric analysis of a sample of 510 households served by Artesian Water Company, Inc. (New Castle County of Delaware). Using a panel study approach covering the period from 1992 to 1997, this study shows that Artesian's water conservation program has had statistically significant and persistent impacts on residential water consumption.  相似文献   

9.
    
Beijing's local water resources have been overexploited and the ecological and environmental pressures exceed the carrying capacity of this densely populated megacity. This article examines the current status of Beijing's water resources with respect to its industrial, residential, and eco‐environmental water usage and the challenges it may face in the near future. The article describes the context of water uses, the steps taken by Beijing to alleviate the water shortage problems, and challenges to Beijing's abilities to meet its urgent and future water needs. A multipronged strategy is proposed that aims at both the present problems and the anticipated future challenges. In particular, engineering and institutional approaches for Beijing's successful transition from overexploitation to sustainable utilization of water resources are explained. Actions include reasonable water utilization, water conservation, reclaimed wastewater, and importing water from neighboring areas. We conclude that Beijing must take additional steps in water resource management to ensure its sustainable development that involves continued urbanization sprawls and population growth. Future water resource management strategies should focus on strengthening water demand management through water conservation, efficient interbasin water transfers, use of nontraditional water resources, strategically reserving water supply, and promoting rehabilitation of the eco‐environments.  相似文献   

10.
本文介绍了滇池流域的自然条件和社会经济发展,分析了水资源特点,对其开发现状和供需预测作了评述,并提出了进一步开发和保护水资源的建议。  相似文献   

11.
    
ABSTRACT: Water resource scientists face complex tasks in evaluating aspects of water projects, but relatively few assessment procedures have been applied and accepted as standard applications. Decision-makers often rely on environmental assessments to evaluate the value and operation of projects. There is often confusion about scientists' role in policy decisions. The scientist can affect policy-making as an expert withess, an advocate or a surrogate. By understanding the policy process, scientists can make their work more “policy relevant.” Using the Terror Lake hydro project in Alaska as a guide, three lessons are discussed: (1) not all problems are able to be solved with technology; (2) policy-relevant technology is rarely imposed on a problem; and (3) the scientist need not just react to the policy process, but can have an impact on how that process unfolds.  相似文献   

12.
ABSTRACT: The risks associated with a traditional wasteload allocation (WLA) analysis were quantified with data from a recent study of the Upper Trinity River (Texas). Risk is define here as the probability of failing to meet an established in-stream water quality standard. The QUAL-TX dissolved oxygen (DO) water quality model was modified to a Monte Carlo framework. Flow augmentation coding was also modified to allow an exact match to be computed between the predicted and an established DO concentration standard, thereby providing an avenue for linking input parameter uncertainty to the assignment of a wasteload permit (allowable mass loading rate). Monte Carlo simulation techniques were employed to propagate input parameter uncertainties, typically encountered during WLA analysis, to the computed effluent five-day carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand requirements for a single major wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). The risk of failing to meet an established in-stream DO criterion may be as high as 96 percent. The uncertainty associated with estimation of the future total Kjeldahl nitrogen concentration for a single tributary was found to have the greatest impact on the determination of allowable WWTP loadings.  相似文献   

13.
ABSTRACT: A first-order uncertainty technique is developed to quantify the relationship between field data collection and a modeling exercise involving both calibration and subsequent verification. A simple statistic (LTOTAL) is used to quantify the total likelihood (probability) of successfully calibrating and verifying the model. Results from the first-order technique are compared with those from a traditional Monte Carlo simulation approach using a simple Streeter-Phelps dissolved oxygen model. The largest single difference is caused by the filtering or removal of unrealistic outcomes within the Monte Carlo framework. The amount of bias inherent in the first-order approach is also a function of the magnitude of input variability and sampling location. The minimum bias of the first-order technique is approximately 20 percent for a case involving relatively large uncertainties. However the bias is well behaved (consistent) so as to allow for correct decision making regarding the relative efficacy of various sampling strategies. The utility of the first-order technique is demonstrated by linking data collection costs with modeling performance. For a simple and inexpensive project, a wise and informed selection resulted in an LTOTAL value of 86 percent, while an uninformed selection could result in an LTOTAL value of only 55 percent.  相似文献   

14.
快速城市化地区地表水资源生态结构及保护研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
以重庆市北部新区高新园这一正处于快速城市化的区域为例,研究了地表水资源的生态特征和变化趋势,并对水资源的系统规划进行了初步探讨。对快速城市化区域水资源变化的分析应该关注自然和人工的双重干扰,把河溪、塘库等地表水体作为区域的重要自然元素,不但要有效保留,而且要从空间结构、功能结构等方面进行科学合理的规划,以保证快速城市化区域的水环境系统健康发展与可持续利用。  相似文献   

15.
关于创建节水型城市的探讨   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
宫莹  阮晓红 《四川环境》2003,22(2):43-45
为了有效的缓解目前我国城市水资源严重短缺的现状,国家提出了大力创建节水型城市口号。为了对实践工作有一定的指导作用,本文重点对节水及节水型城市的内涵进行了剖析,特别对节水型城市内涵提出了自己的见解。以此同时,运用上述的理论,分析了目前我国在创建节水型城市工作中存在的主要问题,并结合国外节水的经验,提出了有建设性的几点建议。  相似文献   

16.
    
ABSTRACT: The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena alter global weather patterns with consequences for fresh water supply. ENSO events impact regions and their natural resource sectors around the globe. For example, in 1997 and 1998, a strong El Nino brought warm ocean temperatures, flooding, and record snowfall to the west coast of the United States. Research on ENSO events has improved long range climate predictions, affording the potential to reduce the damage and economic cost of these weather patterns. Here, using the Hydrologic Unit Model for the United States (HUMUS), we simulate the impacts of four types of ENSO states (Neutral, El Niño, La Niña, and strong El Niño) on water resources in the conterminous United States. The simulations show that La Niña conditions increase water yield across much of the country. We find that water yield increases during El Niño years across the south while declining in much of the rest of the country. However, under strong El Niño conditions, regional water yields are much higher than Neutral, especially along the West Coast. Strong El Niño is not simply an amplification of El Niño; it leads to strikingly different patterns of water resource response.  相似文献   

17.
Water conservation is a much emphasized policy of the Federal government. Discussion of water conservation proposals often involves confusion between a conservation “ethic,” which is an end in itself, and conservation as a means for attaining various economic objectives. Analysis indicates that outside of ground water “mining.” water is usually a renewable and reusable resource. During periods of normal precipitation, water conservation should be employed only when the value of the water saved exceeds the cost of effecting the savings. Water conservation is most valuable as a drought contingency tactic. Water conservation as a substitute for structural provision to meet normal water demand growth is apt to prove shortsighted.  相似文献   

18.
    
ABSTRACT: The purpose of this research was to examine through modeling and experimentation if seepage out of a pond through stratified soil can be predicted, and effectively collected and managed to augment streamflow during a low precipitation period extending three months or more. The 55 m2 experimental pond with sandy/loamy banks was excavated to hardpan, and its bottom was approximately 0.7 above the water table. Output from a mathematical model containing both bottom and bank seepage elements agreed with experimental data, and showed that as compared to bottom seepage, the bank seepage contributed approximately 25 percent of the total seepage. Seepage collection (as measured from a circumscribing ditch) linearly varied with stage (r2 < 0.99). There was an 8 to 22 percent over‐collection at the lower pond stages, and a 9 to 45 percent under‐collection at the highest stage. As an example of its utility, the model was applied to estimate the pond size and shape needed to supply a hypothetical stream and maintain fish stocks during a three‐month low‐precipitation period. Future work will focus on nutrient transport and removal.  相似文献   

19.
    
ABSTRACT: Recent technical and scientific advances have increased the potential use of long term, seasonal climate forecasts for improving water resource management. This paper examines the role that forecasts, in particular those based on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, can play in flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. While strong evidence exists of an association between ENSO signals and flooding in the region, this association is open to more than one interpretation depending on: (a) the metric used to test the strength of the association; (b) the definition of critical flood events; (c) site specific features of watersheds; and (d) the decision environment of flood management institutions. A better understanding and appreciation of such ambiguities, both social and statistical, will help facilitate the use of climate forecast information for flood planning and response.  相似文献   

20.
ABSTRACT: In 1973 the National Water Commission concluded its five-year study of national water policy by issuing a massive report containing over 200 recommendations for improvements in the way the Nation deals with its water resources. The Carter Administration is now engaged in another water policy review which incorporates many of the policies espoused by the National Water Commission. In this paper, presented at the 13th American Water Resources Conference in Tucson in November of 1977, the author describes the work of the National Water Commission and the actions taken on its recommendations.  相似文献   

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