Drought in Bangladesh: Lessons for planners and administrators

The 1978–1979 drought in Bangladesh affected three crop seasons, reducing rice production by an estimated two million tons. Rainfall deficiency varied regionally and locally, and drought effects varied with soils, crops and management. Farmers used new practices such as irrigation of crops normally grown rainfed, cultivation of famine millets, and – when rain eventually fell – transplanting crops that normally are direct seeded (including replanting to fill gaps in drought-affected fields). Crop rotations also were adjusted to compensate for crop losses or late planting and to take advantage of reduced flood-levels or changed market prices. The various and location-specific responses by farmers provide useful lessons for planners and administrators in a disaster-prone country: production plans and programmes must be flexible; relevant environmental factors, crop areas sown and crop condition must be closely monitored and the implications promptly assessed; and the farmers' repertoire of disaster-mitigating practices should be recorded so as to provide a basis for more pragmatic research, extension and development programmes. A method for monitoring and assessing rainfall is described.     

应重视防震减灾宣传内容与效果的统一

以对江苏及邻区３１个市县防震减灾宣传内容及效果调查为基础,通过对不同层次对象接受的防震减灾宣传内容及所感兴趣的内容与效果的分析,提出以减灾为目的的防震减灾宣传,不应停滞在满足公众安全需要的低层次宣传阶段,应重视具有长效应的内容与效果的统一,切实为增强全民防震减灾意识服务。     

Flood Control Projects in Bangladesh: Reasons for Failure and Recommendations for Improvement

Flood control and drainage projects in Bangladesh are intended to give protection from main river floods, flash floods in the east and northeast of the country, and saline intrusion in the lower delta and to improve drainage in order to avoid crop damage. While in some cases such projects have had positive results, in many others their benefits have fallen well below expectations. One of the major reasons for the poor performance of projects is embankment failure, brought about by poor planning, design, construction, operation and maintenance. Recommended measures to improve the efficiency of projects include the involvement of local people in the planning and operation of projects, better training of management staff and the allocation of adequate funds for maintenance.     

1997/1998厄尔尼诺与江苏气象灾害及对农业影响的分析

１９９７／１９９８厄尔尼诺事件在１９９７～１９９８年冬春给江苏省带来严重气象灾害， 导致三麦、油菜减产近３成。夏季长江出现仅次于１９５４年的全流域性特大洪涝， 形势十分严峻。本文以大量翔实的数据与灾情资料， 分析了厄尔尼诺与江苏气象灾害的密切关系， 提请人们关注厄尔尼诺， 预防气象灾害。     

基于气象灾害预报的作物种植类型决策方法

干旱、雨涝是农业生态方面重要的水文气象灾害,科学地根据水文气象预报来选择种植作物品种,一直是农业管理者、生产者非常关心的问题,传统的决策方法是根据农业总体区划、作物种植习惯和耕作习惯确定的,具有一定的局限性。提出了基于气象灾害预报对错概率的作物种植类型决策新方法,综合考虑了农业气象预报的误报概率和作物适应性,克服了传统方法的不足。对绥棱农场某种植区20年的水文气象资料进行了分析,计算了旱涝预报与实况联合概率矩阵,推导出水文气象预报对错概率矩阵;根据作物品种在不同天气状况的产量,确定了决策失误损失矩阵。实证分析表明,所提决策方法可有效地减少因旱涝灾害给粮食产量带来的损失,对作物品种的选择具有很好的实用参考价值。     

基于农户视角的政策性种植业保险调研报告——以湖南省566户调查数据为例

基于566户调研数据,对湖南省开展的政策性种植业保险做了深入分析,以期对农业保险的开展和相关政策实施提供有益的参考。调查结果显示:水稻和棉花保险保障程度有限,低于基本物化成本;对相关政策的不理解以及担心得不到赔偿是限制农户购买农业保险的主要原因;农户愿意支付的水稻与棉花的保险费率平均在2.6%～3.0%。建议加强农村基础设施建设,提高农业生产设防水平;结合农民需求和支付意愿,设计合理丰富的保险产品;增加农民收入,加强保险知识教育;加大农业保险宣传,保证基层政府和保险公司良好的公信度。     

一起换流站直流避雷器击穿的原因分析

针对银川东换流站直流滤波器避雷器击穿故障,根据实测数据与仿真结果对差动保护动作过程进行分析,找出故障原因。分析结果表明:直流滤波器高压避雷器不能满足技术协议对最小特性的要求是造成故障的主要原因;应结合实际使用的保护策略确定直流输电工程设备的绝缘水平,并将其控制在合理的范围内。     

陕西省农作物病虫害与气候变化的关系分析

分析了陕西省降水、气温变化以及厄尔尼诺事件、拉尼娜事件、太阳黑子活动与农作物病虫害的关系,认为：陕西省农作物病虫害与气温变化存在显著的正相关关系;气候条件是病虫害发生或流行的主要控制因子;厄尔尼诺事件、拉尼娜事件以及太阳黑子活动与农作物病虫害的发生或流行存在密切的关系。     

西部生态环境与资源可持续利用的若干问题

本文在介绍西部生态环境现状的基础上,分析了其恶化的症结所在,并指出西部应增强生态意识,重视保护和改善生态环境,以确保资源的可持续利用和促进西部经济的可持续发展.     

遥感信息与作物生长模式的结合方法和应用--研究进展

将遥感信息与作物生长模式结合来预测作物产量,是目前的一个热点研究课题.概述了遥感信息与作物生长模式结合的主要方法,包括驱动法和初始化/参数化法,以及最新的一些研究个例.同时还分析了将遥感信息应用到作物生长模式过程中存在和有待改进的问题.     

Willingness to pay for agricultural flood insurance in the Mekong River Delta

Increasing urbanization and industrial development upstream of the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam (MRD) including the construction of a series of dams for hydroelectricity generation is changing the downstream risk of flooding. Concerns about the likely influence of global climate change and rising sea levels add further uncertainty to this risk that threatens the livelihood of farmers. With this in mind and in view of the under-developed state of the market for crop insurance in the MRD, we survey rice growers to explore their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for crop insurance by using a choice experiment. The experimental design comprised five attributes, including the type of peril covered – riverine flooding (flooding); flooding triggered by tidal regimes (inundation); or flooding, inundation and wind damage – type of provider; extent of cover and deductible and premium. Two hundred and twenty-six rice-growing farmers were surveyed with each farmer responding to six different choices. Our study shows that WTPs for an insurance plan covering a loss up to 2 million VND/1000m²/farming season and having a deductible of 25% of the potential (profit) crop value varied between 200,000 and 500,000?VND/1000m² (1USD?=?22,550 Vietnamese Dong – VND) for each rice growing season, implying a potential market for crop insurance.     

面向作物病害识别的高光谱波谱库设计与开发

自20世纪70年代以来,国内外波谱数据库发展迅速,但都存在着针对性不强的缺陷,不能满足我国现阶段遥感应用的需要。该文通过以小麦条锈病为案例的高光谱波谱库的设计与开发,实现了波谱查询、影像管理、用户管理、数据管理、反演模型等功能,可供其它面向病害识别的高光谱波谱库的建立参考。     

南通台核旋观测干扰的排除

针对南通地震台核旋观测的干扰 ,通过多种试验最终加以排除。这项工作表明 ,地震台站环境改造中要注意监测环境的保护 ,特别是铠装电缆的铺设要考虑到对磁、电观测的影响 ,并就如何进一步提高核旋的观测质量提出建议。     

甘肃河西走廊临泽小枣冻害成因及防治对策

进入21世纪的短短几年里,甘肃河西走廊临泽小枣就遭受了2次冻害,2008年的冻害比2003年更为严重,位于临泽县北部的四个乡镇的枣粮间作地,全部幼树和绝大部分大树树冠均冻死、绝产.冻害程度调查表明,临泽县南部乡镇轻,北部乡镇重;村庄宅旁轻,枣粮间作地重;靠近林带和小网格林带内轻,远离林带和大网格林带内重;背风面轻,迎风面重.气象资料分析得出,2003年冻害是由于2002年12月下旬的低温所致;2008年冻害是1月下旬到2月上旬的低温所致,冻害期间,最大风力为西北风,吹得最多的是东北风.通过与正常年份气温的比较分析得出,临泽小枣安全越冬的临界气温为-20.0℃,2d日平均温度低于-20℃的低温即可使临泽小枣遭受冻害,但≤1d的-20℃以下的低温对临泽小枣不产生冻害;温度越低,枣树能忍受的时间越短,可忍受的极端最低气温为-27℃.加强绿洲防护体系建设,大力发展村旁、路旁、渠旁、宅旁等四旁枣树种植,及根据天气预报采取应急措施是防止临泽小枣发生冻害的主要对策.     

Livestock mortality in pastoralist herds in Ethiopia and implications for drought response

Participatory epidemiology methods were employed retrospectively in three pastoralist regions of Ethiopia to estimate the specific causes of excess livestock mortality during drought. The results showed that starvation/dehydration accounted for between 61.5 and 100 per cent of excess livestock mortality during drought, whereas disease‐related mortality accounted for between 0 and 28.1 per cent of excess mortality. Field observations indicate that, in livestock, disease risks and mortality increase in the immediate post‐drought period, during rain. The design of livelihoods‐based drought response programmes should include protection of core livestock assets, and it should take account of the specific causes of excess livestock mortality during drought and immediately afterwards. This study shows that, when comparing livestock feed supplementation and veterinary support, relatively more aid should be directed at the former if the objective is to protect core livestock during drought. Veterinary support should consider disease‐related mortality in the immediate post‐drought period, and tailor inputs accordingly.     

Ocean Disaster Reduction and Sustainable Development in the Region around Bohai Sea

1IntroductionBohai is the only inland sea in China.It has the highest resource density of all the fourcontinental seas in China.Since the end of the1 970 's,the marine economy around Bohai has seengreat development and the growth rate of the marine industry is up to 2 0 % .It is much higherthan the growth rate of the GDP of this region.The marine economy has greatly contributed tothe development of the economy and society around Bohai.However,since Bohai is an inlandsea,it has the natural …     

吉林省主要农作物病虫害风险防御区划

农作物病虫害风险的研究,对有效防御病虫害发生、制定相应的防御对策及有效评估病虫害造成的损失有重大意义。利用吉林省50个县市的玉米、水稻和大豆产量、面积资料,及相应各站1961-2009年主要病虫害——玉米螟、稻瘟病、大豆蚜资料,根据灾害发生的频数确定病虫害影响指数,分析了各因子的影响程度。通过将各因子极差化处理,计算出综合风险防御指数,对吉林省主要农作物病虫害高、中、低风险防御区进行了区划评估。     

Innovation in risk transfer for natural hazards impacting agriculture

Agricultural income from growing crops is susceptible to a variety of risks—the price of output and the actual amount of output are generally the largest risk variables. This article focuses on yield risk rather than price risk by reviewing innovation in risk transfer for natural hazard risk in agriculture. While many higher-income countries have long-standing crop insurance programs, these programs are not appropriate for lower-income countries. Lower-income countries can ill-afford the subsidies that are used in most multiple peril crop insurance programs throughout the world. Still, lower-income countries have large numbers of small farms increasing the need for agricultural insurance to protect against common problems that create disastrous losses for many individual farm households.     

Cyclone mitigation, resource allocation and post-disaster reconstruction in south India: lessons from two decades of research

This paper opens with a history of development and disaster-prevention strategies in a cyclone-prone area of the east coast of India and traces the evolution in the area of British and Indian governments' programmes and policy over a century. Research over the last 20 years has shown, however, that the programmes and policies have failed to balance economic growth with safety. Resources intended for the benefit of all have been diverted by alliances of powerful people to a small minority, and recent developments have reduced the physical protection of the area. The result is that increasing numbers of people are vulnerable to the effects of cyclones and floods. The findings suggest that the best way to reduce vulnerability is to improve the socio-economic standing of the most vulnerable and for this to happen these people must have an assured income based on assets that will enable them to acquire social and economic credit-worthiness within the local economy. This paper presents evidence that suggests that non-governmental organisation (NGO)-supported co-operatives are the best way to achieve this through self-help and self-employment schemes. It also suggests that NGOs should be encouraged to take up environmentally and ecologically beneficial activities involving the poorest groups in the communities, in this way combining sustained self-employment with environmental protection.     

西藏自治区雅鲁藏布江中游地区环境灾害成因分析

西藏自治区雅鲁藏布江中游地区生态环境脆弱,由于人类活动的干扰,局部地段生态环境已遭到破坏,并演变与环境灾害。本文通过对调查研究,对区内洪水、风沙、山地灾害等主要灾种的危害、形成原因进行了论述,希望能引起重视,加强对西藏自治区生态环境的保护。