Reducing the complexity of the flood vulnerability index

After the flooding in 2002 European governments provided billions of Euros of financial assistance to their citizens. Although there is no doubt that solidarity and some sort of assistance are reasonable, the question arises why these damages were not sufficiently insured. One explanation why individuals reject to obtain insurance cover against natural hazards is that they anticipate governmental and private aid. This problem became to be known as “charity hazard”. The present paper gives an economic analysis of the institutional arrangements on the market for natural disaster insurances focusing on imperfections caused by governmental financial relief. It provides a theoretical explanation why charity hazard is a problem on the market for natural disaster insurances, in the way that it acts as an obstacle for the proper diffusion and therefore the establishment of natural hazard insurances. This paper provides a review of the scientific discussion on charity hazard, provides a theoretical analysis and points out the existing empirical problems regarding this issue.     

Cracking the code: the genesis, use and future of the Code of Conduct

This paper reflects on the genesis of the Code of Conduct for the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) in Disaster Relief, on the tenth anniversary of its adoption. The origins, usage and future of the code are examined with respect to three debates, current at the time of its inception, namely: the debate about the core content of humanitarianism; the debate about coherence and the consensual nature of the humanitarian community; and the debate about the need for, and the ability to demonstrate, accountability. The paper concludes that although the Code of Conduct was very much a product of its time, its content remains relevant today. However, its future application hinges on the capacity of those who purport to follow it to realise true accountability, and on proving that the code, written essentially for natural disasters, is relevant to contemporary complex emergencies.     

基于较大块石分布位置的土石混合边坡稳定性研究∗

为了准确分析土石混合边坡的稳定性,克服传统有限元和颗粒流程序在分析土石混合边坡稳定性上的不足,提出一种基于原始土石混合边坡的图像识别和块石随机生成技术,运用此技术生成土石混合边坡模型,模型中较大块石的尺寸范围为0.1～0.3倍坡高,并采用强度折减法对5种不同较大块石分布位置的土石混合边坡的稳定性进行了分析研究。结果表明:不同的较大块石分布位置对土石混合边坡稳定性的影响较大,影响的大小关系为:坡脚坡面坡顶坡内坡后均质土坡;在同一较大块石分布类型下,不同的块石随机位置及排列方式对土石混合边坡的塑性扩展模式有着较大影响。研究结果可为土石混合边坡的设计及施工提供参考依据。     

水样电导率干扰因素的排除实验

针对电导率观测过程中可能遇到的各种影响观测质量的因素进行分析和探讨,通过各种条件实验,指出排除这些干扰的具体方法,从而提高电导率的观测质量。     

南京地震台的大地电场观测场地建设及对其初步观测资料的分析

南京基准地震台于 1998 0 6建立了大地电场观测系统 ,同年开始观测。本文介绍了场地建设概况 ,并根据其初步的观测资料分析了大地电场的一些机理特征 ,在大地电场的背景消除方面作了一些探究。     

淮阴-响水断裂淮安市区段定位初探

通过分析淮安城区内钻探和浅层人工地震勘探资料 ,确定了淮阴 -响水断裂的大致位置。在此基础上 ,又做了城区断层气和地磁勘探 ,进一步确定了淮阴 -响水断裂经过市区的位置。满足了城市规划的需要 ,也为探索城区断裂勘探方法提供了有益的尝试。     

钢框架带悬臂梁拼接节点的抗水平地表变形试验研究

以单层单跨带悬臂梁段拼接钢框架为研究对象,通过地表变形的物理相似模拟试验,研究了钢框架带悬臂梁段拼接节点在地表水平变形作用下的附加应力和变形规律。主要研究在水平拉伸和水平压缩作用下,拼接节点处腹板拼接板和上下翼缘拼接板内产生的附加内力及变形曲线,分析了上下翼缘拼接板和腹板拼接板中间位置点的变形值随着试验加载值的增加而变化的原因。研究结果表明:地表水平拉伸作用最为不利;拼接节点虽会产生附加变形,但在很大程度上仍处于弹性阶段,卸栽后可以恢复,表现出良好的抗变形性能。最后给出建议:在地表变形地区新建或加固改造钢结构建构筑物时,采用钢框架带悬臂梁段高强螺栓拼接连接,可以很好地吸收变形能。     

A critique of the official report on the evacuation of the World Trade Center: continued doubts

This paper criticises the conclusions and the unanswered questions in the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)'s official report on the evacuation of the World Trade Center in New York City, United States, on 11 September 2001. It reviews the extent to which the report disregards several conventional statistical methods and comments on the NIST's refusal to share the machine‐readable data file with the scientific community for replication and further analysis. Problems lie in the sampling methods employed, the treatment of missing data, the use of ordinary least squares (OLS) with binary dependent variables, the failure to document the scalability of the scales used, the lack of tests to check for constant error variance, and the absence of overall fit tests of the model. There are also conceptual and theoretical issues, such as the absence in the report of considerations of the influence of group‐level processes and their impact on the collective behaviour of evacuating collectivities.     

Determining the future policies for disaster management in the southwest pacific

There are still deficiencies in the delivery of disaster aid and the overall policies need further re-examination. This paper looks at the particular circumstances of the island nations of the Southwest Pacific. In their context, dependence on outside help for counter-disaster management is recognised, but in the light of the present economic, social, cultural and political characteristics of these countries, it is concluded that aid donors should shift the emphasis of their activities to the promotion of a greater self-help approach in the individual countries, as against the provision of emergency material aid from outside. The extent to which this policy could be adopted depends on the local resource base. Rather than relying mainly on emergency ad hoc aid delivery following each disaster, it is considered that donors would improve the disaster response through the previous provision of advice, training and funds. This would facilitate the growth and development of internal counter-disaster organizatons, and assist countries to make their own decisions on the timing and nature of the aid required. Such a policy could also meet concerns that arise about external interference.     

地震系统基层领导者如何做好有效决策之探讨

通过对重庆市黔江区小南海古地震遗址的保护的申报立项和综合开发问题的决策过程 ,从理论和实践两个方面论述了领导者应如何作出有效决策。主要是深入调查研究 ,找出关键问题 ;组织和依靠专家评审 ,选择最佳方案 ;合理冒险与避险 ,作出大胆决策。     

铁路噪声对沿线居民环境影响综合评价方法的研究

铁路噪声扰民是铁路对居民生活环境不利影响的一个重要方面。本文利用大量实地调查和监测结果，应用铁路环境噪声声级计权人口分析评价了铁路对沿线居民的实际影响，并给出了评价示例。     

Humanitarian governance and the consequences of the state‐fragility discourse in the Democratic Republic of Congo's health sector

This paper examines how the discourse on state fragility affects the preferences of key actors in humanitarian governance for different types of health‐sector interventions in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It argues that, instead of focusing on the actual meaning of state fragility, attention should be paid to interactive processes around the discourse among stakeholders in the health sector. The lack of consensus on state fragility influences humanitarian governance, especially the perceptions of and interactions between the host government, donors, and international non‐governmental organisations. The latter have legitimised the persistence of vertical, emergency‐based interventions by emphasising state fragility, whereas state officials have preferred to assert political statehood and a higher degree of control. Nevertheless, they agree that donors’ financial contributions ensure the survival of the public health sector. Looking ahead, a policy coalition based on harmonised views about addressing fragility is necessary for effective engagement and the sustainability of interventions, but this is unlikely to happen any time soon.     

东南沿海地震带地震活动性及近期形势分析

通过研究东南沿海地震带的地震活动性 ,分析该带近期的地震形势 ,并预测闽粤交界及其沿海地区为该带未来 1～ 3年内可能发生 5～ 6级或 6级左右地震的重点危险区     

MBBR法应用于工业废水处理的研究

关于实心钢管混凝土的耐火性能已有大量的实验研究,而空心钢管混凝土的耐火实验目前还非常少见。针对这一不足,对空心钢管混凝土进行了耐火实验研究,其中考虑了不同的空心率,并对中空注水对构件耐火性能的影响也进行了实验研究。实验结果表明:在相同的荷栽比下,构件的耐火时间随空心率先增大后减小。当空心率较小时,中空注水对构件耐火时间的提高作用不明显;当空心率较大时,注水对耐火时间的提高才体现出来。     

地铁隧道毒气事故的防治与应急处置探讨

在调研国内外地铁隧道毒气事故及其防护技术现状的基础上,分析上海市地铁隧道防毒能力和面临的若干问题,就地铁隧道化学毒剂、毒物的监测、防护以及突发毒气事件的应急救援和处置,提出综合性、可操作的对策建议,对于进一步提高地铁系统的安全运营管理水平和突发事故应急处置能力,保障地铁交通等公共场所的安全和加强城市安全管理具有重要的现实意义。     

江苏省梅雨及其灾害影响评估分析

根据江苏省近50年来的梅雨资料,用数学统计方法对入、出梅的迟早作了定义,考虑到梅期的长短、梅雨量及暴雨日数等3个因子,给出了梅雨强度计算模型及梅期旱涝指标,并分析了江苏省淮河以南地区近50年来梅期旱涝分布特征,最后阐述了入梅迟早对旱涝灾害的影响.     

中国综合减灾立法体系研究--兼论立项编研国家《综合减灾法》的重要问题探讨

本文阐述了建立《综合减灾法》的背景,探讨了《综合减灾法》的作用.在国外综合减灾立法的基础上,给出了中国《综合减灾法》的编研框架.     

青藏高原东北侧局地冰雹最大雹径识别方法

以3D-Barnes方案插值的新一代天气雷达反射率因子等高平面资料,用垂直累积液态含水量的理论模式计算雹云单体在降雹过程中的VIL,再用MAX函数逐个提取最大VIL(简称:VILmax),采用统计和回归处理技术,对2004~2006年5~8月青藏高原东北侧局地雹云单体的VILmax与对应地面冰雹最大雹径(简称:Rmax)之间的关系进行详细分析。结果表明,青藏高原东北侧局地冰雹Rmax与对应单体VILmax之间存在明显的正相关关系。     

长江中下游地区高温热害对水稻的影响

以长江中下游地区的气象资料和水稻生长发育观测资料为基础,应用WOFOST作物模型模拟了不同发育时段高温热害对早稻和中稻生长发育及产量的影响,评估了长江中下游地区高温热害对水稻的影响程度.研究表明:高温主要影响早稻和中稻的孕穗、开花和灌浆,受高温影响减产程度依次为灌浆期最大,开花期次之,孕穗期最小;当高温强度和持续日数增...     

略阳电厂后部山体边坡的稳定性评价与初步治理设计

在对略阳电厂后部山体地质条件分析的基础上,采用定性分析与定量数值计算相结合的方法评价了电厂后部山体在开挖前后的稳定性问题,并对开挖后的坡体提出了相应的工程治理措施.