公众对核能态度的现状调查及对策

通过调查公众对核电及核安全的认识、态度和相关行为,分析公众对核能态度的现状和特点,从而有针对性地为相关政府部门和核电营运单位提出建议。用问卷调查的方法随机调查985名公众,用SPSS对数据进行因子分析、方差分析。结果表明,超过2/3的调查者表示不能了解到或很难了解到核电相关知识;半数以上公众表示对核风险存在焦虑;公众支持国家建设核电站但又不愿意核电站建设在自己的居住地;性别、年龄、学历、职业、居住地对于核能的认知度、焦虑度、信任度、接受度存在显著影响。结论表明,公众对于核风险的焦虑程度比较高,且不同人群对核能态度存在差异。     

坚守环境安全底线 筑牢核电发展根基

正党的十九大提出推进绿色发展,要壮大清洁能源产业,构建清洁低碳、安全高效的能源体系。核电作为一种优质清洁能源,具有很高的经济效益、社会效益和环境效益。然而,日本福岛核事故后,我国公众对核电的接受度大幅降低,甚至谈"核"色变,在一定程度上影响了我国核电事业发展。近年来,我国积极出台《核安全法》等一系列规章制度,进一步规范和保障核电站的安     

基于环境舆情文本挖掘的大气环境风险感知评价

基于2015—2019年环境舆情信息,采用大数据挖掘与分析技术识别出公众对大气环境质量风险感知影响因素,建立了风险感知指标评价体系,分析了风险感知水平的时空变化特征。结果表明:1)影响公众风险感知的首要因素是个体健康担忧,其次是环境质量变化。2)公众风险感知水平具有显著的时空差异性;从时间上看,风险感知水平整体呈现波动上升趋势;从空间上看,风险感知水平呈现北方高南方低、东部高西部低的特征。3)河南、四川两省的风险感知水平在研究时间段内最高,且风险感知具有空间溢出效应。     

新建核电站风险信息沟通实证研究

随着我国近年核电产业的迅速扩张,核风险管理已成为社会各界关注甚至争议的热点.核风险沟通是核突发事件预防、应对及恢复的关键要素,对核风险管理具有重要的影响.然而,对如何与核电站周边风险群体进行有效沟通还知之甚少.为弥补这个缺憾,作者走访了山东海阳在建核电站相关管理人员并对周边常住居民进行问卷调查,以了解他们对核电发展的态度.文章描述了风险沟通的基本框架,意识到公众信任和信息公开的重要性.结果发现我国核能发展决策是由政府部门、核能企业和科研院所组成的"铁三角"主导的,受访者获取核信息的最主要途径是媒体,相对于其它渠道,超过51%的公众更相信政府发布的信息,更多受访者不愿意接受核风险和反对在当地建设核电站.最后提出了有效风险沟通的基本原则.研究结论对未来核电风险管理具有重要指导意义,也对利益相关方具有参考价值.     

突发性水污染事件个体风险感知模型的构建

突发性水污染事件是突发性环境事故需要急迫解决的问题,其中公众对突发性水污染事件的个体风险感知对事故的危害程度具有很大的影响,为了明确它们之间的关系,本文对突发性水污染事件下个体风险感知的影响因素和理论模型的构建进行了研究。首先利用典型事件案例分析、对有事件经验的个体进行问卷调查和理论分析的方法,从事件特征因子、与个体关系因子、社会影响因子、个体自身因子四个方面初步得出突发性水污染事件个体风险感知的影响因素,并应用二分类logistic回归方法,采用SPSS 12.0统计软件中的转发即LR方法,剔除不显著因子,得到了突发性水污染事件个体风险感知的主要影响因素;然后,基于主要影响因素及其在logistic回归分析中的得分,建立了突发性水污染事件个体风险感知二分类Logistic回归模型;最后,通过以镇江市突发性苯酚水污染事件为例,对构建的突发性水污染事件个体风险感知模型进行了实证研究,结果表明模型应用效果较理想,可对突发性水污染事件个体风险感知高低进行准确的预测。该研究将有助于了解个体在突发事件下的各种行为,进而为突发事件下个体行为的优化引导提供参考。     

旅游气象服务评价与旅游风险感知调查研究

旅游天气预报与气象灾害预警是现代气象服务体系的重要组成部分,也是旅游者、旅游行业和旅游服务人员重点关注的内容。通过景区游客抽样问卷调查和计算机数理统计分析,研究表明:(1)公众旅游气象信息感知程度较好,游客对旅游气象服务满意程度较高;(2)道路交通安全和身体健康风险成为出游安全与旅行风险的主要关注点;(3)年龄、学历、婚姻状况和性格类型影响旅游气象服务评价和旅游风险感知程度。     

基于公众对区域水灾感知的灾害风险沟通探讨

了解公众对区域水灾的感知情况,为开展有效的风险沟通和风险管理提供基础依据。本文从公众层面入手,在长江流域的上中下游选择重庆、江西、安徽作为调查样区,调查公众对当地水灾的感知状况,共访谈10余个区县的207位居民,每人的访谈时间都在40 min以上。据此分析公众区域水灾感知水平与灾害风险沟通间的关系。调查中发现,在风险沟通的渠道方面：电视是村民接受风险信息的主要渠道,很少有人通过报纸或网络了解水灾水情。在风险沟通的内容方面：在灾害中不同的角色因其职责、信息渠道等的不同,风险沟通的内容有别。水灾认知中,存在着由于期望差异、乐观侥幸心理等导致的认知偏差。在风险沟通的手段方面：对于受灾居民而言,可以通过水灾知识普及、加强心理辅导或心理治疗等方式减少水灾带来的负面影响。另外,需要引导公众认识到防洪科技的有限性,减少麻痹、盲从心理及其行为。     

基于信息源信任度的PM2.5健康风险认知研究

运用心理测量范式调查北京和南昌居民对PM2.5信息发布源的信任度以及健康风险认知,结果表明,居民信息源信任度仅为一般水平,专家和非政府组织信任度较高,政府信任度较低,北京居民信任度低于南昌居民,风险认知高于南昌居民.基于结构方程模型,构建风险认知影响机理模型,分析表明信任度对风险认知有显著影响,北京和南昌影响系数分别为0.244、0.183;个体特征能直接或通过信任度间接影响风险认知,北京和南昌总影响系数分别为0.222、0.214,其中个体基础信息(年龄、月收入、职业)、健康状况(儿童和老人数、自身健康状况、曾或正患呼吸疾病或心肺疾病)、居住位置与工作方式均对信任度和风险认知有显著影响.     

公众对钢铁项目的环境风险感知及其偏差——以湛江宝钢为例

以宝钢湛江钢铁项目周边居民为研究对象,分析公众对项目建成后的空气、海水及土壤环境风险感知状况,同时对相应的环境要素进行环境质量评价,分析主观感知风险与客观环境质量之间的偏差。结果表明:公众对宝钢湛江钢铁项目建成后的环境风险感知,与客观环境质量评价结果之间存在一定差异,人们对空气和海水环境风险趋向于高估;然而客观环境质量评价显示,湛江湾沿岸生态环境良好,相较之前并未发生太大变化。人们过高地估计了他们所面临的环境风险,其风险感知偏差主要受污名化效应引起的担忧情绪、公众对环境风险的熟悉程度低、公众对钢铁企业的信任不足等影响。     

公众对区域突发环境风险的可接受水平及影响因素研究

可接受风险对于区域突发环境污染事件的管理和防控具有重要意义。本文在河北省张家口市开展了问卷调查,研究不同人群在风险感知、风险知识和公众信任上的特征差异,并采用多元Logistic回归方法探究可接受风险与各因素之间的关系,为环境风险管理和风险沟通提供依据。     

Perception of people for the risk of Tianwan nuclear power plant

A questionnaire survey of residents’ risk perceptions related to Taiwan nuclear power plant in China was carried out to explore the determining factors that affect individual risk perception. This study proposed to pursue a more comprehensive understanding of factors that affected individual risk perception to nuclear power plants. Covariance structure analysis was conducted using risk perceptions of nuclear power as dependent variable and including interest and knowledge levels of nuclear power, acceptability, benefit perception, trust in nuclear power operation, and trust in government as independent variables. The use of the hypothesis of Elaboration likelihood model (ELM) was also proposed. The results showed that persons with higher levels of interest and knowledge of nuclear power had their own perceptions of risk closely associated with acceptability and potential benefits of nuclear power. In contrast, persons with no interest in and knowledge of nuclear power would have risk perceptions related to their trust in nuclear operation and the government, which partially supported the ELM hypothesis. All these results indicated that the government in China plays an important role in rational risk perceptions, and well-designed communication of risks will help the public to be involved in risk management and improve people’s rational acceptance of risk.     

福岛核事故对中国核电站厂址选择影响研究

日本福岛核事故源于两个直接因素--地震和海啸,以及两因素的叠加,并导致放射性泄漏对周围居民产生重大影响。针对这些问题,分析中国大陆核电站厂址的地震发生概率、海啸发生概率和人口分布因素,由此评价我国核电站厂址选择的安全性。结果证明:我国大陆核电站远离地震带;沿海不会发生特大海啸;核电站周围人口分布密度符合安全标准,我国核电站具有较高的固有安全性。同时,此次福岛事故也是对我国核电发展的警示,要求不可忽视小概率的超基准设计事故以及多个超基准设计事故叠加的情况;要重新审查中国抗震和海啸等极限事故的标准;要考虑人口密度;要避免两个核电站建设过密的情况。目前,我国已经采取安全检查等措施确保核电站的安全性。这次福岛事故对我国乃至世界核电的发展都是宝贵的经验教训。     

我国核事故应急“十三五”规划思路研究

通过分析我国核事故应急体系在应急预案、应急指挥、应急救援、技术支持、应急演习等多方面的已有能力,学习国外核电强国的核应急管理经验,总结福岛核事故应急的经验教训,发现我国现有核事故应急体系存在的问题,并提出"十三五"期间我国核事故应急的主要对策和措施,以期为我国核事故应急体系建设提供科学的和系统的工作思路。     

Public acceptance and risk-benefit perception of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> geological storage for global warming mitigation in Japan

CO₂ geological storage will be one of the cost-effective options for global warming mitigation, and this technology is under development widely in the world. However, the technology may face the challenge of public acceptance before its implementation. In order to evaluate the public acceptance, questionnaire surveys were conducted among Japanese university students. A cognitive map of geological storage, together with other major global warming mitigation options, everyday life activities, etc., was constructed by means of a statistical analysis of the responses to the questionnaire. The risk-benefit cognitive map consists of the following factors: “risk perception,” “benefit perception,” and “public acceptance.” The risk perception is further disaggregated into “dread risk” and “unknown risk.” Additionally, a second survey was conducted after providing the students with additional information on global warming and CO₂ geological storage, and the effects of the information on their perceptions were evaluated. The effects of risk and benefit perceptions on public acceptance were evaluated and discussed based on the cognitive maps representing the perceptions before and after providing the information. The analyses revealed that the benefit perception was more influential than the risk perception on the public acceptance of CO₂ geological storage. The benefit perception increased greatly after providing the information; however, the unknown risk remained considerably large. Further, RD&D relating unknown risk, for example, the monitoring technology for stored CO₂ and the risk assessment of CO₂ leakage, and the supply of related information to the public would be beneficial for increasing the public acceptance.     

福岛核电站泄漏事故污染控制与消除的成与败

因地震、海啸引发的福岛核电站泄漏事故产生的放射性污染至今仍在严重影响着日本民众的生命安全与正常生活,且污染有进一步扩大的威胁。纵观事故发生后日本采用的应急处置手段总体上是成功的,但受污染控制与消除技术缺乏等因素的制约,在污染控制与消除方面采取的措施不得力,致使蔬菜、牛奶和自来水受到了碘-131的污染,日本的进出口贸易与民众的生活受到了严重影响,身体健康受到了威胁。本文分析了日本在控制与消除核事故放射性污染方面的做法,并根据中国核事故应急救援技术发展现状,提出了更有利于减轻核事故危害、控制与消除核污染的技术与手段。     

Public acceptance of tree health management: Results of a national survey in the UK

Assumptions about public stakeholder attitudes to pest and disease management can influence the decisions of forest managers and NGOs involved in responding to pests and diseases; however, they are rarely assessed directly. Evidence on the social acceptability of tree health management methods is required to inform government led policy and management. A nationally representative survey of 2000 members of the UK public was used to address two research questions: (1) How acceptable are tree health management methods to the public? (2) How do opinions about woodland functions, concern and awareness of tree pests and diseases, and demographics influence acceptance of management methods? We found that public stakeholders are highly supportive of tree health management; however, knowledge about tree pests, diseases, and management options is low. Methods seen as more targeted and ‘natural’ were preferred, e.g. felling and burning only affected trees and using biological control rather than chemical control. There were demographic differences in attitudes: men and older people are more likely to support management interventions and stronger management methods than females and younger people. Acceptance of management can also differ according to location and local context (e.g. management is less supported when it may impact on wildlife) and values (e.g. those with economic values are more supportive of management). These findings provide evidence to support current government initiatives on tree health and should improve confidence amongst managers tasked with carrying out tree pest and disease management. However, there is a need for in-depth qualitative studies to explain the beliefs which influence demographic variations in acceptance and the influence of concepts such as ‘nativeness’ and ‘naturalness’.     

地形对日本福岛核事故放射性粒子扩散影响的敏感性研究

利用FLEXPART-WRF粒子扩散模式和Stohl等给出的福岛核事故137Cs排放数据,对日本福岛核事故放射性粒子扩散情况进行了数值模拟和有、无地形的敏感性试验;同时假定核污染物排放源位于日本高崎市的RN38站(36.3°N、139.1°E),对向东开口的V型特殊地形进行了敏感性试验. 福岛核事故数值模拟结果表明:放射性污染物的扩散路径、范围和强度既与天气形势有关,还与地形密切相关,不同天气或不同盛行风向条件下,地形的绕流和抬升作用对核污染物扩散输送态势的影响具有明显差异;在偏东气流影响下,由于地形作用,相比无地形时核污染物扩散偏西1个经度左右,偏高约0.5km. V型特殊地形敏感性试验结果表明:在合适的环流形势下(边界层为偏东风,中、高层为偏西风),由于V型地形的阻挡作用,可形成强烈上升运动区,核污染物主要向上、向东扩散输送,向上可扩散至3.0km以上,向东可扩散至145°E左右;而无地形时核污染物向上、向东影响范围减小,向东扩散至140°E,向上扩散至1.5km,但由于无地形阻挡和偏东风影响,向西扩散范围有所增加. 讨论了天气和地形条件对核电站选址的影响,不同天气形势下地形对核污染物扩散的影响并不相同,因此核电站选址应首先考虑选址地的大气环流背景和常见的天气系统,在此基础上再考虑地形的影响.      

Review of drivers and barriers for nuclear power in the UK

There has been resurgence in interest in new nuclear power stations over the last couple of years. The UK Government has taken steps to encourage the private sector to build new stations in the UK, a change in its previous neutral stance toward nuclear power. This paper examines the change in government policy asking what drivers have led to this decision and what barriers were preventing new nuclear power in the past and what barriers are still faced by both government and industry. Three main drivers are discussed: security of energy supply; diminishing energy generation capacity; and climate change. The paper also examines other key factors that play a part in facilitating a shift in government policy, namely economics, public perception and waste management policy. Barriers are identified through examination of public perception, and policy. The changes to the planning system are also discussed. The paper concludes by comparing drivers and barriers for other technologies and contrasting the UK experience with that of other countries.     

大连新港7.16溢油事件的公众问卷调查

2010年7月16日中石油大连大孤山新港码头储油罐输油管线发生爆炸事故,部分石油泄漏入海。2010年7月30日,开展了公众问卷调查。结果显示,有96%的受访者了解此次的溢油事件,95%以上的公众有亲海愿望。受访者中总体认为溢油对生态环境影响严重的占57%;溢油后最关注的问题是生态恢复者占64%。认为养殖业、旅游业受到影响严重者分别达到54%和45%。金石滩、开发区城区、大连湾调查区域回答对养殖业影响严重的占80%以上。金石滩、大连湾区域回答对旅游业影响严重的占70%以上。旅顺龙王塘的问卷调查多项结果显示,基本没有受到溢油影响。对政府所采取的应急处理措施,公众基本满意度达到82%。