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1.

Introduction

The comparative analysis of macroscopic trends in road safety has been a popular research topic. The objective of this research is to propose a simple and, at the same time, reliable multiple regime model framework for international road safety comparisons, allowing for the identification of slope changes of personal risk curves and respective breakpoints.

Method

The trends of road traffic fatalities in several EU countries have been examined through the temporal evolution of elementary socioeconomic indicators, namely motorized vehicle fleet and population, at the country level.

Results

Piece-wise linear regression models have been fitted, using a methodology that allows the simultaneous estimation of all slopes and breakpoints. The number and location of breakpoints, as well as the slope of the connecting trends, vary among countries, thus indicating different road safety evolution patterns.

Impact on industry

Macroscopic analysis of road accident trends may be proved beneficial for the identification of best examples and the implementation of appropriate programmes and measures, which will lead to important benefits for the society and the economy through the reduction of road fatalities and injuries. Best performing countries and the related programmes and measures adopted may concern several safety improvements at the processes of the road, the vehicle and the insurance industries.

Conclusions

Lessons from the analysis of the past road safety patterns of developed countries provide some insight into the underlying process that relates motorization levels with personal risk and can prove to be beneficial for predicting the road safety evolution of developing countries that may have not yet reached the same breakpoints. Furthermore, the presented framework may serve as a basis to build more elaborate models, including more reliable exposure indicators (such as vehicle-km driven).  相似文献   

2.
3.
IntroductionRecent increases in road crashes have reversed New Zealand’s formerly declining crash rates to produce annual fatal and serious injury counts that are 49% higher than the lowest rates achieved in 2013. Method: We model twenty-one factors in fatal and serious injury crashes, four years before and after 2013 using logistic regression. Three major factors are significantly different in the period after 2013, when crash rates increased: (1) alcohol as a cause, (2) learner licence holders, and (3) a regional effect for Auckland. Newly defined speed zones are a more common setting for crashes in the period of upturn but there is no coinciding elevated likelihood of ‘speed as a causal factor’. Three factors related to road safety were less common: aged under 25-years old, fatigue, and not wearing a seatbelt. Results: Results are compared to rates of prosecutions for alcohol-related driving offences over this period. It is possible that New Zealand’s successful road safety initiatives of the past have been undermined by reduced levels of enforcement and an unexpected outcome from the graduated driving licence system.  相似文献   

4.
S.C. Wong  N.N. Sze 《Safety Science》2010,48(9):1182-1188
Recent studies have shown that the setting of road safety targets is associated with a substantial reduction in road fatalities in the short-term. Although such targets may not themselves be responsible for the reduction in fatalities, they serve as a useful measure of the intention and commitment of road authorities to formulate timely road safety measures that lead to the achievement of the target. A quantified target is regarded as one of the key components of a road safety strategy. However, few studies have examined the degree of commitment and attention of road authorities to such targets in the long-term. In this study, we revisit the effectiveness of the quantified road safety targets set by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, but with a different method, time scale, and group of comparison countries. We not only evaluate the associations between quantified targets and road fatality levels, but also measure the changes in the time-series trends in road fatalities over the long-term. The results indicate that all seven treatment countries analyzed experienced desirable changes in the time-series trend in road fatalities during the period under study, which implies an increase in road safety improvement over time.  相似文献   

5.

Introduction

Information from hospital trauma registries is increasingly being used to support injury surveillance efforts. This research examines the potential of using trauma registry data for road traffic injury surveillance for different types of road users in terms of both the information collected and how representative trauma data are compared to two population-based road traffic injury data collections.

Methods

The three data collections were assessed against recommended variables to be collected for injury surveillance purposes and the representativeness of the distribution of road traffic-related injury data from the trauma registry was compared to hospital admission and road traffic authority data collections.

Results

Data from the trauma registry was largely not representative of the distribution of age groups or activities compared to the two population-based collections, but was representative for gender for some road user groups to at least one population-based data collection.

Conclusions

Trauma data could be used to supplement information from population-based data collections to inform road safety efforts.

Impact on Industry

Road safety policy makers should be aware of the potential and the limitations of using trauma registry data for road traffic injury surveillance.  相似文献   

6.
Objective: In 2012, 4,743 pedestrians were killed in the United States, representing 14% of total traffic fatalities. The number of pedestrians injured was higher at 76,000. Therefore, 36 out of 52 of the largest cities in the United States have adopted a citywide target of reducing pedestrian fatalities. The number of cities adopting the reduction goal during 2011 and 2012 increased rapidly with 8 more cities. We examined the scaling relationship of pedestrian fatality counts as a function of the population size of 115 to 161 large U.S. cities during the period of 1994 to 2011. We also examined the scaling relationship of nonpedestrian and total traffic fatality counts as a function of the population size.

Methods: For the data source of fatality measures we used Traffic Safety Facts Fatality Analysis Reporting System/General Estimates System annual reports published each year from 1994 to 2011 by the NHTSA. Using the data source we conducted both annual cross-sectional and panel data bivariate and multivariate regression models. In the construction of the estimated functional relationship between traffic fatality measures and various factors, we used the simple power function for urban scaling used by Bettencourt et al. (2007 Bettencourt LMA, Lobo J, Helbing D, Kühnert C, West GB. Growth, innovation, scaling and the pace of life in cities. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2007;104:73017306.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar], 2010 Bettencourt LMA, Lobo J, Strumsky D, West GB. Urban scaling and its deviations: revealing the structure of wealth, innovation and crime across cities. PLoS ONE. 2010;5:e13541.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) and the refined STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model used in Dietz and Rosa (1994 Dietz T, Rosa EA. Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology. Human Ecology Review. 1994;1:277300. [Google Scholar], 1997 Dietz T, Rosa EA. Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 1997;94:175179.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) and York et al. (2003 York R, Rosa EA, Dietz T. STIRPAT, IPAT and IMPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts. Ecol Econ. 2003;46:351365.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]).

Results: We found that the scaling relationship display diseconomies of scale or sublinear for pedestrian fatalities. However, the relationship displays a superlinear relationship in case of nonpedestrian fatalities. The scaling relationship for total traffic fatality counts display a nearly linear pattern. When the relationship was examined by the 4 subgroups of cities with different population sizes, the most pronounced sublinear scaling relationships for all 3 types of fatality counts was discovered for the subgroup of megacities with a population of more than 1 million.

Conclusions: The scaling patterns of traffic fatalities of subgroups of cities depend on population sizes of the cities in subgroups. In particular, 9 megacities with populations of more than 1 million are significantly different from the remaining cities and should be viewed as a totally separate group. Thus, analysis of the patterns of traffic fatalities needs to be conducted within the group of megacities separately from the other cities with smaller population sizes for devising prevention policies to reduce traffic fatalities in both megacities and smaller cities.  相似文献   

7.
Objective: Pedestrian injuries are a leading cause of child death and may be reduced by training children to cross streets more safely. Such training is most effective when children receive repeated practice at the complex cognitive–perceptual task of judging moving traffic and selecting safe crossing gaps, but there is limited data on how much practice is required for children to reach adult levels of functioning. Using existing data, we examined how children's pedestrian skills changed over the course of 6 pedestrian safety training sessions, each composed of 45 crossings within a virtual pedestrian environment.

Methods: As part of a randomized controlled trial on pedestrian safety training, 59 children ages 7–8 crossed the street within a semi-immersive virtual pedestrian environment 270 times over a 3-week period (6 sessions of 45 crossings each). Feedback was provided after each crossing, and traffic speed and density were advanced as children's skill improved. Postintervention pedestrian behavior was assessed a week later in the virtual environment and compared to adult behavior with identical traffic patterns.

Results: Over the course of training, children entered traffic gaps more quickly and chose tighter gaps to cross within; their crossing efficiency appeared to increase. By the end of training, some aspects of children's pedestrian behavior was comparable to adult behavior but other aspects were not, indicating that the training was worthwhile but insufficient for most children to achieve adult levels of functioning.

Conclusions: Repeated practice in a simulated pedestrian environment helps children learn aspects of safe and efficient pedestrian behavior. Six twice-weekly training sessions of 45 crossings each were insufficient for children to reach adult pedestrian functioning, however, and future research should continue to study the trajectory and quantity of child pedestrian safety training needed for children to become competent pedestrians.  相似文献   


8.
9.
Objective: Drowsy driving is a profound road safety issue. In patients with excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS), the Maintenance of Wakefulness Test (MWT) is commonly used to evaluate driving ability. However, there is little evidence that MWT predicts driving performance, and several sleep latency cutoffs have been suggested.

Methods: Based on a retrospective chart analysis of patients with an MWT and a driving ability assessment between January 2006 and November 2014, we identified 63 studies in 60 patients. The driving ability assessment judged the patients as qualified or disqualified for commercial driving. MWT latencies to 3?s of alpha activity, 3?s of drowsiness (microsleep), and sleep onset were compared between qualified and disqualified patients and their validity to identify driving qualification was evaluated.

Results: Disqualified patients had shorter alpha, microsleep, and sleep latencies, but the latency distributions were widely overlapping. MWT accuracy to predict driving performance was poor: two thirds of short sleep latencies were false positives. Adding information from alpha and microsleep latencies added little extra accuracy.

Conclusions: MWT results correlate poorly with driving performance in a 2-h test irrespective of sleep latency cutoff or added alpha/microsleep latency data. Better diagnostic tools are needed to evaluate driving performance in patients with EDS.  相似文献   

10.
The current study examines the possibility that agency workers can experience perceived insider status despite their assumed “outsider” category. One hundred ninety‐one agency workers from Canadian financial firms completed surveys assessing agency worker perceptions regarding the level of support from both their supervisors and the client firms' permanent workers, as well as the agency workers' level of perceived insider status and affective commitment toward the client firm. Agency worker supervisors (within the client firm) assessed the agency workers' level of interpersonal facilitation. Results indicate that: (1) Agency workers can experience perceived insider status, regardless of their objective classification as outsiders; (2) perceived support from supervisors and the client firms' permanent workers contribute to agency worker perceptions of insider status; and (3) perceptions of insider status are associated with higher levels of both affective commitment and interpersonal facilitation, even in workers that are considered marginally tied to the organization. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
The extant literature on the relationship between self‐sacrificial leadership and subordinate behavioral outcomes has primarily focused on the influence of this leadership on subordinate affiliative behaviors. Our research proposed a theoretical model explaining why and when self‐sacrificial leadership might promote taking charge, an exemplar of challenging behaviors. We tested this model across two studies conducted in China. In addition, we also examined the differences in the boundary conditions for self‐sacrificial leadership to influence taking charge and affiliative behaviors (cooperation in Study 1 and helping in Study 2 ). Our results revealed that (i) self‐sacrificial leadership was positively related to subordinate taking charge, with organizational identification acting as a mediator for this relationship, and (ii) risk aversion moderated both the self‐sacrificial leadership–subordinate taking charge relationship and the mediating effect of organizational identification, such that the relationship and its mediating mechanism were weaker for subordinates high rather than low in risk aversion. These moderating effects, however, could not generalize to cooperation and helping. Finally, the theoretical and practical implications of our results and directions for future research were discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Objective: Pedestrian lower extremity represents the most frequently injured body region in car-to-pedestrian accidents. The European Directive concerning pedestrian safety was established in 2003 for evaluating pedestrian protection performance of car models. However, design changes have not been quantified since then. The goal of this study was to investigate front-end profiles of representative passenger car models and the potential influence on pedestrian lower extremity injury risk.

Methods: The front-end styling of sedans and sport utility vehicles (SUV) released from 2008 to 2011 was characterized by the geometrical parameters related to pedestrian safety and compared to representative car models before 2003. The influence of geometrical design change on the resultant risk of injury to pedestrian lower extremity—that is, knee ligament rupture and long bone fracture—was estimated by a previously developed assessment tool assuming identical structural stiffness. Based on response surface generated from simulation results of a human body model (HBM), the tool provided kinematic and kinetic responses of pedestrian lower extremity resulted from a given car's front-end design.

Results: Newer passenger cars exhibited a “flatter” front-end design. The median value of the sedan models provided 87.5 mm less bottom depth, and the SUV models exhibited 94.7 mm less bottom depth. In the lateral impact configuration similar to that in the regulatory test methods, these geometrical changes tend to reduce the injury risk of human knee ligament rupture by 36.6 and 39.6% based on computational approximation. The geometrical changes did not significantly influence the long bone fracture risk.

Conclusions: The present study reviewed the geometrical changes in car front-ends along with regulatory concerns regarding pedestrian safety. A preliminary quantitative benefit of the lower extremity injury reduction was estimated based on these geometrical features. Further investigation is recommended on the structural changes and inclusion of more accident scenarios.  相似文献   


13.
PROBLEM: The bicycle helmet use rate is still low among teenagers despite the cumulating evidence that bicycle helmets can prevent cyclists from serious injuries and death. The objective of this study was to investigate the usefulness of the Health Belief Model (HBM; Health Education Monographs, 2 (1974) (1), Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB; Ajzen, I. (1988). Attitudes, personality and behavior. Open University Press, Milton Keynes) and Locus of Control model (LC; Psychological Monographs, (1966) (80) in understanding the intention to use bicycle helmet use among bicycle helmet owners. METHOD: Data were collected at two schools in Helsinki, Finland. Students (N=965) completed a questionnaire including three social psychological models applied to helmet use. Models were compared by structural equation modeling techniques. SUMMARY: Results showed that the TPB and LC model fitted the data well, whereas fit of the HBM model was lower than the fit of TPB and LC models. All components of TPB and external LC orientation were significantly related to the intention to use a helmet. TPB together with LC model provide a promising theoretical framework for helmet use promotion campaigns. Practical suggestions for future bicycle helmet campaigns were provided.  相似文献   

14.
OBJECTIVE: Speeding tickets are the most commonly used tool to deter speeders, yet little is known about how speeding citations affect individual drivers' behavior over time. This study examined the effects of being cited for speeding and types of legal consequences on drivers' subsequent speeding citations, which are an indicator of speeding behavior. METHODS: A cohort of 3,739,951 Maryland licensed drivers were identified and followed for one year. Drivers were categorized by whether or not they received a speeding citation in May 2002. Among those cited for speeding in May 2002, drivers were grouped by type of penalty (fines and points; probation before judgment [PBJ, which results in fines but no points]; or no legal consequences). The relative risks (RR) and 95 percent confidence intervals (CI) of receiving a speeding citation during follow-up were compared between drivers ticketed and not ticketed in May 2002, as well as among different penalty groups. Cox proportional hazards regression modeling was used to adjust for potential confounders, including age, gender, alcohol-impaired driving, and residence. Kaplan-Meier survival functions were used to examine timing of violations. RESULTS: Young drivers and male drivers were more likely to receive a speeding citation. Drivers who received a speeding citation in May 2002 had almost twice the risk of receiving a speeding citation during follow-up, compared with those not cited for speeding that month (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.52-1.68). Overall legal consequences had no significant effect on the risk of receiving a repeat speeding citation relative to ticketed drivers who escaped those consequences (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.84-1.15); however, stratified analyses showed a significant decrease in repeat citations among females (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.63-0.90) and drivers who received PBJ (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.67-0.96). Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the study group of speeders had a significantly shorter time between May 2002 until receipt of a speeding citation than controls. Among penalty groups, significantly shorter times until receipt of another citation were observed among drivers escaping consequences or receiving fines/points compared with drivers receiving fines/PBJ. CONCLUSIONS: Drivers who receive speeding citations are at increased risk of receiving subsequent speeding citations, suggesting that speeding citations have limited effects on deterrence in the context of the current traffic enforcement system. When comparing different penalties, PBJ is associated with a reduced rate of recidivism more than stronger penalties; however, it is unclear whether the reduction primarily is attributable to the penalty itself or to characteristics of drivers receiving PBJ. Increasing drivers' perceptions that they are at risk of being caught speeding may improve the effectiveness of speeding law enforcement.  相似文献   

15.
A large body of research demonstrates that women encounter severe penalties for violating gender stereotypes. In this paper, we explore the conditions under which the reverse is true—when being subject to a stereotype can actually benefit a woman compared to a man who is not subject to the same stereotype. In particular, we suggest that in situations of causal ambiguity—uncertainty about the reasons that a behavior occurred—differences in how men and women are evaluated will be moderated by the extent to which observers engage in a low or a high level of deliberative causal reasoning. In 3 experimental studies, participants were asked to make judgments about an employee who violated a female gender stereotype by failing to provide help to a coworker when asked to do so, but the reasons for this behavior were unclear. When participants were prompted to engage in deliberative causal reasoning, women were evaluated more positively than men, but not in the absence of such a prompt. Moreover, when participants did engage in deliberative causal reasoning, the more positive evaluations of women compared to men were driven by participants' beliefs that women's behavior was due more to situational constraints than the same behavior by men.  相似文献   

16.
Objective: Despite successes in the 1980s and early 1990s, progress in reducing impaired driving fatalities in the United States has stagnated in recent years. Since 1997, the percentage of drivers involved in fatal crashes with illegal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) levels has remained at approximately 20 to 22%. Many experts believe that public complacency, competing social and public health issues, and the lack of political fortitude have all contributed to this stagnation. The number of alcohol-related crashes, injuries, and fatalities is still unacceptable, and most are preventable. The public needs to be aware that the problem presented by drinking drivers has not been solved. Political leaders need guidance on which measures will affect the problem, and stakeholders need to be motivated once again to implement effective strategies.

Methods: The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Transportation Research Board (TRB), Alcohol, Other Drugs, and Transportation Committee (ANB50) sponsored a workshop held at the NAS facility in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, on August 24–25, 2015, to discuss the lack of progress in reducing impaired driving and to make recommendations for future progress. A total of 26 experts in research and policy related to alcohol-impaired driving participated in the workshop. The workshop began by examining the static situation in the rate of alcohol-impaired driving fatal crashes to determine what factors may be inhibiting further progress. The workshop then discussed 8 effective strategies that have not been fully implemented in the United States. Workshop participants (16 of the 26) rated their top 3 strategies.

Results: 3 strategies received the most support: 1. Impose administrative sanctions for drivers with BACs = 0.05 to 0.08 g/dL.

2. Require alcohol ignition interlocks for all alcohol-impaired driving offenders.

3. Increase the frequency of sobriety checkpoints, including enacting legislation to allow them in the 11 states that currently prohibit them.

5 other important strategies included the following: (1) increase alcohol taxes to raise the price and reduce alcohol consumption; (2) reengage the public and raise the priority of impaired driving; (3) lower the illegal per se BAC limit to 0.05 for a criminal offense; (4) develop and implement in-vehicle alcohol detection systems; and (5) expand the use of screening and brief interventions in medical facilities.

Conclusions: Each of these strategies is proven to be effective, yet all are substantially underutilized. Each is used in some jurisdictions in the United States or Canada, but none is used extensively. Any one of the 3 strategies implemented on a widespread basis would decrease impaired driving crashes, injuries, and fatalities. Based on the research, all 3 together would have a substantial impact on the problem.  相似文献   


17.
‘Live as domestic a life as possible. Have your child with you all the time. Lie down an hour after each meal. Have but two hours intellectual life a day. And never touch pen, brush or pencil as long as you live’. Dr S. Weir Mitchell, 1855 When Dr Mitchell, purportedly the greatest North American nerve specialist of his time, gave the above advice to his patient Charlotte Perkins Gilman, he almost certainly believed he was helping her get over a severe nervous condition. Fortunately, she did not take his advice. Instead she devoted herself to the study of economics and regained her health. The perspectives offered to working women by many a modern day Dr Mitchell appear to have changed somewhat in subtlety, but little in kind. For example, the August 18, 1986 cover of Fortune magazine featured a beaming mother and cherubic child illustrating the lead article, entitled ‘Why women are bailing out’. The article goes on to tell why four of the ‘best’ women MBAs had quit the workforce. One stated ‘I had to hire and fire people … I just don't want the hassle’ (of corporate life). Another having passed up a promotion at a Houston bank, ‘quit to have her first child’ and after her second had no plans to go back to work. A third complained: ‘I just couldn't do it. I watched other women sliding as they tried to juggle both career and family, making themselves crazy in the process’. And the fourth left a big accounting firm because the ‘hours were bad, and is now happier as a “part time teacher”’. While the Fortune article mentioned several reasons for women's leaving the corporate world ranging from competing family demands to discrimination, the underlying messages were clearly that mothers have to choose between children and career and that the business world is too cold, uncaring and tough for women, in a word no place for a lady. A chorus of such articles have appeared in the popular media warning against the dangers of career commitment for women, which are said to include everything from burnout, infertility, alcoholism, heart attacks to terminal spinsterhood (Faludi, 1991). More serious treatments emanating from academia have often reached similar conclusions. These dire pronouncements are especially influential to young women contemplating a professional or managerial career, but indeed those already in such careers may also wonder if they have made a bad choice. To answer such questions, this paper will explore some aspects of the relationship between career and emotional health and well-being for a group of highly successful career women.  相似文献   

18.
Introduction: Fire and rescue services Syd, in the south of Sweden, started to conduct home fire and safety checks on a large scale in 2010. The goal was to reduce the damages from residential fires. Method: We estimate the effects of the intervention on the incidence of residential fires and evaluate its economic effect. We use a difference-in-kinks design to analyze time-varying intervention effects and conduct a cost–benefit analysis for the economic evaluation. Results: The results demonstrate that fires and developed fires decrease by a maximum of approximately 6% and 8% per year (assuming 100% causality) and that the intervention has positive economic effects, with the benefits estimated to be maximum 8–11 times higher than the costs. Practical applications: The results should be valuable as input when deciding whether to implement home fire and safety checks elsewhere.  相似文献   

19.
This paper focuses on the influence of gender on performance issues which concern directors of publicly traded corporations in Israel. Two theoretical perspectives for the explanation of gender differences in occupations were examined. The first views gender as an individual‐level property that is correlated with occupational and job variables and the behavioral differences between men and women as the result of these correlates. According to this perspective, when the correlates of gender are controlled, these differences disappear. The second perspective treats gender not only as a property that individuals bring with them to the workplace, but also as an institutionalized characteristic of the workplace, of occupations, and of occupational environments, as embedded in formally defined rules, roles and responsibilities. Consequently, gender influences are not easily eliminated. The dependent variable was the extent to which men and women differ in their concerns regarding their roles as directors. The independent variables included human, social capital and organizational context variables, and gender. Data were collected by means of questionnaires from a representative sample of directors (98 women and 127 men). The findings lend partial support for a view of gender as a social institution and directors as a gendered occupation. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
The current meta-analysis sought to evaluate the empirical evidence for the victim precipitation model, which has become an increasingly popular yet controversial theory in the organizational sciences. We did so by testing the prediction that some victim dispositional traits contribute to or provoke experiences of mistreatment. We additionally provided preliminary examinations of two distinct conceptual explanations underlying the empirical relationships between victim personality and mistreatment. Finally, we examined the support for the situational antecedents of experienced mistreatment to compare the relative evidence for each of these dominant theoretical explanations. Results for the tests of the victim precipitation model showed that only victim negative affectivity was consistently related to experienced mistreatment. Examinations of the explanations for the relationships between victim personality and victimization showed relatively weak support for the notion that certain employees are more likely to perceive mistreatment and for the proposition that certain employees are mistreated because they are also more likely to engage in mistreatment. Finally, the situational predictors of mistreatment were all supported, and a test of relative importance revealed that the situational antecedents accounted for more variance in mistreatment than the victim dispositional traits. Implications for the theoretical understanding of the origins of mistreatment are discussed.  相似文献   

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