Air flow and concentration fields at urban road intersections for improved understanding of personal exposure

This paper reviews the state of knowledge on modelling air flow and concentration fields at road intersections. The first part covers the available literature from the past two decades on experimental (both field and wind tunnel) and modelling activities in order to provide insight into the physical basis of flow behaviour at a typical cross-street intersection. This is followed by a review of associated investigations of the impact of traffic-generated localised turbulence on the concentration fields due to emissions from vehicles. There is a discussion on the role of adequate characterisation of vehicle-induced turbulence in making predictions using hybrid models, combining the merits of conventional approaches with information obtained from more detailed modelling. This concludes that, despite advancements in computational techniques, there are crucial knowledge gaps affecting the parameterisations used in current models for individual exposure. This is specifically relevant to the growing impetus on walking and cycling activities on urban roads in the context of current drives for sustainable transport and healthy living. Due to inherently longer travel times involved during such trips, compared to automotive transport, pedestrians and cyclists are subjected to higher levels of exposure to emissions. Current modelling tools seem to under-predict this exposure because of limitations in their design and in the empirical parameters employed.     

Modelling the long-term consequences of a hypothetical dispersal of radioactivity in an urban area including remediation alternatives

The Urban Remediation Working Group of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) program was organized to address issues of remediation assessment modelling for urban areas contaminated with dispersed radionuclides. The present paper describes the second of two modelling exercises. This exercise was based on a hypothetical dispersal of radioactivity in an urban area from a radiological dispersal device, with reference surface contamination at selected sites used as the primary input information. Modelling endpoints for the exercise included radionuclide concentrations and external dose rates at specified locations, contributions to the dose rates from individual surfaces, and annual and cumulative external doses to specified reference individuals. Model predictions were performed for a “no action” situation (with no remedial measures) and for selected countermeasures. The exercise provided an opportunity for comparison of three modelling approaches, as well as a comparison of the predicted effectiveness of various countermeasures in terms of their short-term and long-term effects on predicted doses to humans.     

Revision of deposition and weathering parameters for the ingestion dose module (ECOSYS) of the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems

The ECOSYS model is the ingestion dose model integrated in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. The parameters used in this model have however not been updated in recent years, where the level of knowledge on various environmental processes has increased considerably. A Nordic work group has carried out a series of evaluations of the general validity of current ECOSYS default parameters. This paper specifically discusses the parameter revisions required with respect to the modelling of deposition and natural weathering of contaminants on agricultural crops, to enable the trustworthy prognostic modelling that is essential to ensure justification and optimisation of countermeasure strategies. New modelling approaches are outlined, since it was found that current ECOSYS approaches for deposition and natural weathering could lead to large prognostic errors.     

Modelling and experimental studies on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit

Although fruit is an important component of the diet, the extent to which it contributes to radiological exposure remains unclear, partially as a consequence of uncertainties in models and data used to assess transfer of radionuclides in the food chain. A Fruits Working Group operated as part of the IAEA BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) programme from 1997 to 2000, with the aim of improving the robustness of the models that are used for radiological assessment. The Group completed a number of modelling and experimental activities including: (i) a review of experimental, field and modelling information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (ii) discussion of recently completed or ongoing experimental studies; (iii) development of a database on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (iv) development of a conceptual model for fruit and (v) two model intercomparison studies and a model validation study. The Group achieved significant advances in understanding the processes involved in transfer of radionuclides to fruit. The work demonstrated that further experimental and modelling studies are required to ensure that the current generation of models can be applied to a wide range of scenarios.     

Modelling of a large-scale urban contamination situation and remediation alternatives

The Urban Remediation Working Group of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) program was organized to address issues of remediation assessment modelling for urban areas contaminated with dispersed radionuclides. The present paper describes the first of two modelling exercises, which was based on Chernobyl fallout data in the town of Pripyat, Ukraine. Modelling endpoints for the exercise included radionuclide concentrations and external dose rates at specified locations, contributions to the dose rates from individual surfaces and radionuclides, and annual and cumulative external doses to specified reference individuals. Model predictions were performed for a “no action” situation (with no remedial measures) and for selected countermeasures. The exercise provided a valuable opportunity to compare modelling approaches and parameter values, as well as to compare the predicted effectiveness of various countermeasures with respect to short-term and long-term reduction of predicted doses to people.     

Integrated models for environmental management: Issues of process and design

Integration has become an important element of natural resource management over recent decades, and managers are now required to consider the social, economic, ecological, and bio-physical effects of alternative management interventions. The problem of managing across many issues is sometimes tackled by putting together a number of individual models. For this approach to work effectively, attention must be paid to both the technical details of the interactions between system components and also to the processes through which these integrated models are developed. This paper explores technical and social aspects of the development of integrated models for environmental management, and discusses two cases within which open modelling and interface prototyping processes were undertaken. The results of this exploration suggest that, for models to be used and accepted widely in integrated environmental management, developers must undertake a process that involves stakeholders and potential users, that exploits the current knowledge, and that illustrates the influence of uncertainty in the technical knowledge. This requires strict attention to the social and technical process of modelling, as well as additional skills in group facilitation and shared vision exploration, so that user expectations can be developed and met in such a way that the best information available is used by decision makers.     

Countermeasures for animal products: a review of effectiveness and potential usefulness after an accident.

Over the last decade, there has been considerable progress in the development of countermeasures for preventing or reducing contamination of animal products by radioisotopes of iodine, caesium and strontium. In this paper, recent significant technical improvements are summarised and the current availability of countermeasures and their usefulness in the event of a nuclear accident reviewed. An improved understanding of factors controlling the metabolism of radioiodine and radiostrontium has enabled previously suggested countermeasures to be either optimised or dismissed. For radiocaesium in particular, experience since the Chernobyl accident has enabled effective and feasible countermeasures to be identified and successfully implemented in different situations. It has also been more widely understood that countermeasure effectiveness, although important, is not the only criterion which needs to be determined. In addition, cost and practical considerations such as availability, technical feasibility, acceptability and side-effects need to be taken into account. Evaluation of these factors has shown that some previously recommended countermeasures are unlikely to be feasible.     

Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

The main objectives of the current EU project “Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure” (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Øresund region.The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision–support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA).Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI-HIRLAM NWP model data provided to DEMA by DMI four times a day under operational surveillance and covering Denmark and surroundings. The integration of DERMA in ARGOS is effectuated through automated on-line digital communication and exchange of data. The calculations are carried out in parallel for each NWP model to which DMI has access, thereby providing a mini-ensemble of dispersion forecasts for the emergency management.     

Assessing potential secondary effects of countermeasures in agricultural systems: a review.

Secondary effects are defined as any positive or negative impacts resulting from the application of countermeasures other than radiological benefits or direct costs. They are categorised into environmental, radioecological, economic and social effects. Impacts on the environment may include changes in water, air and soil pollution or in the conservation and amenity value of an area. Radioecological effects occur when the countermeasure unintentionally alters the behaviour of the target radionuclide or any other radionuclide present. Economic effects may range from changes in agricultural income to environmental costs (e.g. impact of soil erosion on fisheries). Social effects relate to the acceptability of countermeasures, for example in terms of consumer confidence and animal welfare. Recent research into the identification and assessment of secondary effects is summarised. Non-quantitative and quantitative approaches are explained and formal evaluation procedures involving decision matrices and decision support systems are introduced. Examples of recent experimental and modelling work focusing on radiocaesium are given for the following countermeasures: soil application of potassium, administration of AFCF to livestock and ploughing techniques.     

Model testing using data on 137Cs from Chernobyl fallout in the Iput River catchment area of Russia

Data collected for 10 years following the Chernobyl accident in 1986 have provided a unique opportunity to test the reliability of computer models for contamination of terrestrial and aquatic environments. The Iput River scenario was used by the Dose Reconstruction Working Group of the BIOMASS (Biosphere Modelling and Assessment Methods) programme. The test area was one of the most highly contaminated areas in Russia following the accident, with an average contamination density of 137Cs of 800,000 Bq m-2 and localized contamination up to 1,500,000 Bq m-2, and a variety of countermeasures that were implemented in the test area had to be considered in the modelling exercise. Difficulties encountered during the exercise included averaging of data to account for uneven contamination of the test area, simulating the downward migration and changes in bioavailability of 137Cs in soil, and modelling the effectiveness of countermeasures. The accuracy of model predictions is dependent at least in part on the experience and judgment of the participant in interpretation of input information, selection of parameter values, and treatment of uncertainties.     

Requirements of future models for inhabited areas

Models for inhabited areas are used in a variety of applications for accidental or continuous releases of radioactivity to atmosphere. Pathways of interest are external exposure from radioactive material in the cloud or deposited on indoor and outdoor surfaces and people, inhalation from the plume and from material resuspended from the ground. In developing a model for inhabited areas it is necessary to consider what the end users may need and ensure that the model is appropriate for the application; different levels of detail may be appropriate for different applications. This paper considers the main processes governing exposure in inhabited areas, commenting on the extent to which we understand them and how well current models reflect this understanding. It also identifies where the authors believe future modelling is needed and the key areas where the current inhabited area models could be improved.     

Biosphere modelling for the assessment of radioactive waste repositories; the development of a common basis by the BIOMOVS II reference biospheres working group

Performance criteria for radioactive waste repositories are often expressed in terms of dose or risk. The characteristics of biosphere modelling for performance assessment are that: (a) potential release occurs in the distant future, (b) reliable predictions of human behaviour at the time of release are impracticable, and (c) the biosphere is not considered to be a barrier as the geosphere and the engineered barriers. For these and other reasons, differences have arisen in the approaches to biosphere modelling for repository dose and risk assessment. The BIOMOVS II Reference Biospheres Working Group has developed (a) a recommended methodology for biosphere model development, (b) a structured list of features, events and processes (FEPs) which the model should describe, and (c) an illustrative example of the recommended methodology. The Working Group has successfully tested the Interaction Matrix (or Rock Engineering Systems, RES) approach for developing conceptual models. The BIOMOVS II Working Groups on Reference Biospheres and Complementary Studies have laid the basis for considerable harmonisation in approaches to biosphere modelling of long term radionuclide releases.     

Effects of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

In the Model Complexity working group of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to a theoretical problem concerning downward transport of radionuclides in soils. The purpose was to study how uncertainty in model predictions varies with model complexity and how model simplifications can suitably be made. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: ¹³⁷Cs, ⁹⁰Sr and ¹²⁹I. A detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of models was given, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models ranged in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis.     

Just Blowing Smoke? Residents’ Social Construction of Communication about Wildfire

This study uses social constructionism as a basis for understanding the effectiveness of communication about wildfire risk between agency officials and wildland–urban interface (WUI) residents. Risk communication literature demonstrates a well-documented difference in the way land managers and stakeholders conceptualize risk. This is especially true of fire because management of these hazards have changed so drastically in past decades; fire managers have typically struggled to clearly articulate the current management policy to the public or integrate their specific knowledge in the risk management process. This study contributes to an understanding of how WUI residents construct communication about wildland fire and agency effectiveness in communicating the new era of fire inclusion. Specifically, we explore the personal and professional sources of information residents’ use to understand their fire risk and the subjects they would like more information about. We also explore the continued viability of Smokey Bear, the most enduring symbol of fire management.     

基于属性层次-识别模型的重庆市南岸区生态系统健康评价

从复合生态系统的角度,构建自然 社会 经济复合生态系统的城市生态系统健康评价指标体系,并应用属性层次 识别模型建立了城市生态系统健康属性综合评价体系。以重庆市南岸区为例,运用该模型和方法对重庆市南岸区的城市生态系统进行评价,结果表明重庆市南岸区的生态系统属于亚健康类。并根据评价的结果,对影响重庆市南岸区生态系统健康属性的指标进行分析,表明南岸区的城市生态系统正处于过渡阶段,正是城市发展的关键时期,而且其城市生态健康有诸多限制性因素,必须要依靠科学合理的规划和实施方法才能引导城市生态系统向健康的方向发展。为了改善其城市生态系统健康的状况,从长远的考虑,提出了相应的调控措施和方法.     

Water resources planning and management based on system dynamics: a case study of Yulin city

Water security is an integral aspect of the socio-economic development in China. Nevertheless, water resources are under persistent pressures because of the growing population, heavy irrigation, climate change effects and short-term policies. Traditional management approaches narrowly focus on increasing supply and reducing demand without considering the complex interactions and feedback loops that govern water resource behaviour. Whereas these approaches may provide quick fix solutions, they often lead to unanticipated, sometimes catastrophic, delayed outcomes. Therefore, water management needs to take a holistic approach that caters to the interdependent physical (e.g. water inflows, outflows) and behavioural (e.g. decision rules, perceptions) processes in the system. Unlike reductionist approaches, System Dynamics (SD) takes a system-level view for modelling and analysing the complex structure (cause–effect relationships, feedback loops, delays) that generates the systemic behaviour. Simulating the SD model allows assessing long-term system-wide impacts, exploring leverage points and communicating results to decision makers. In this paper, we follow an SD modelling approach to examine the future of water security in Yulin City. First, we present a conceptual model for integrating water supply and demand. Based on this, we build an SD model to simulate and analyse the dynamics of water resource over time. The model output is tested to ensure that it satisfactorily replicates the historical behaviour of the system. The model is used to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of various supply/demand management options. Three scenarios are designed and examined: business-as-usual, supply management, and demand management. Results show that current management regime cannot effectively meet the future water demand. Whereas supply acquisition provides short-term benefits, it cannot cope with the growing population. A combination of conservation measures and demand-management instruments is regarded the most effective strategy for balancing supply and demand.     

Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM)

Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO₂, NO_x, NH₃, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned.     

Assessing relocation strategies of urban air quality monitoring stations by GA-based compromise programming

This paper presents a GA-based compromise programming technique for assessing the relocation strategy of urban air quality monitoring network with respect to the multi-objective and multi-pollutant design criteria. While the impact of conservative, quasi-stable, and reactive pollutants are considered in the design principles via a simulation analysis, cost, effectiveness, and efficiency characteristics are postulated in the optimization process. Therefore, technical coverage for illustrating the needs of siting air quality monitoring stations (AQMS) includes both the air quality simulation and optimization modeling analyses in a two-stage analytical framework simultaneously. It starts from determining the spatial interrelationship among those candidate sites using various types of air quality simulation models as an integrated means. And the outputs drawn from the simulation models can then be used as the required inputs in the compromise programming model in order to screen all those siting alternatives that may satisfy the planning goals subject to the essential constraints throughout the multi-objective optimization process. For the illustrating purposes, a series of technical settings for finding the optimal relocation scenarios of AQMS were examined in the case study for the city of Kaohsiung in South Taiwan where the long-term violations of official standards of ozone and particulates turn out to be critical. It not only expresses the ideas of relocation strategy but also indicates how to utilize those alternatives in the decision-making process for improving the functionality of air quality monitoring in the urban environment. Experience gained in this study clearly indicates that the more the number of pollutants and objectives considered simultaneously, the higher the number of candidate sites to be selected in the relocation strategy.     

Factors influencing recovery and restoration following a chemical incident

Chemicals are an important part of our society. A wide range of chemicals are discharged into the environment every day from residential, commercial and industrial sources. Many of these discharges do not pose a threat to public health or the environment. However, global events have shown that chemical incidents or accidents can have severe consequences on human health, the environment and society. It is important that appropriate tools and technical guidance are available to ensure that a robust and efficient approach to developing a remediation strategy is adopted. The purpose of remediation is to protect human health from future exposure and to return the affected area back to normal as soon as possible. There are a range of recovery options (techniques or methods for remediation) that are applicable to a broad range of chemicals and incidents. Recovery options should be evaluated according to their appropriateness and efficacy for removing contaminants from the environment; however economic drivers and social and political considerations often influence decision makers on which remedial actions are implemented during the recovery phase of a chemical incident. To date, there is limited information in the literature on remediation strategies and recovery options that have been implemented following a chemical incident, or how successful they have been. Additional factors that can affect the approach taken for recovery are not well assessed or understood by decision makers involved in the remediation and restoration of the environment following a chemical incident. The identification of this gap has led to the development of the UK Recovery Handbook for Chemical Incidents to provide a framework for choosing an effective recovery strategy. A compendium of practical evidence-based recovery options (techniques or methods for remediation) for inhabited areas, food production systems and water environments has also been developed and is included in the chemical handbook. This paper presents the key factors that should be considered when developing a recovery strategy with respect to how these may impact on its effectiveness. The paper also highlights the importance of these factors through an evaluation of recovery strategies implemented following real chemical incidents that have been reported in the literature.