Modelling the long-term consequences of a hypothetical dispersal of radioactivity in an urban area including remediation alternatives

The Urban Remediation Working Group of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) program was organized to address issues of remediation assessment modelling for urban areas contaminated with dispersed radionuclides. The present paper describes the second of two modelling exercises. This exercise was based on a hypothetical dispersal of radioactivity in an urban area from a radiological dispersal device, with reference surface contamination at selected sites used as the primary input information. Modelling endpoints for the exercise included radionuclide concentrations and external dose rates at specified locations, contributions to the dose rates from individual surfaces, and annual and cumulative external doses to specified reference individuals. Model predictions were performed for a “no action” situation (with no remedial measures) and for selected countermeasures. The exercise provided an opportunity for comparison of three modelling approaches, as well as a comparison of the predicted effectiveness of various countermeasures in terms of their short-term and long-term effects on predicted doses to humans.     

Radioecological consequences of a potential accident during transport of spent nuclear fuel along an Arctic coastline

This article presents results pertaining to a risk assessment of the potential consequences of a hypothetical accident occurring during the transportation by ship of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) along an Arctic coastline. The findings are based on modelling of potential releases of radionuclides, radionuclide transport and uptake in the marine environment. Modelling work has been done using a revised box model developed at the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority. Evaluation of the radioecological consequences of a potential accident in the southern part of the Norwegian Current has been made on the basis of calculated collective dose to man, individual doses for the critical group, concentrations of radionuclides in seafood and doses to marine organisms. The results of the calculations indicate a large variability in the investigated parameters above mentioned. On the basis of the calculated parameters the maximum total activity (“accepted accident activity”) in the ship, when the parameters that describe the consequences after the examined potential accident are still in agreement with the recommendations and criterions for protection of the human population and the environment, has been evaluated.     

Radionuclide transfer to fruit in the IAEA TRS 364 Revision

Information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruits was almost absent in the former TRS 364 “Handbook of parameter values for the prediction of radionuclide transfer in temperate environments”. The revision of the Handbook, carried out under the IAEA Programme on Environmental Modelling for RAdiation Safety (EMRAS), takes into account the information generated in the years following the Chernobyl accident and the knowledge produced under the IAEA BIOMASS (Biosphere Modelling and Assessment) Programme in the years 1997–2000. This paper describes the most important processes concerning the behaviour of radionuclides in fruits reported in the IAEA TRS 364 Revision and provides recommendations for research and modelling.     

Sea to land transfer of anthropogenic radionuclides to the North Wales coast, Part II: aerial modelling and radiological assessment

Modelling calculations have been performed to predict the radiological impact of the sea to land transfer pathway to members of the public in North Wales from 1952 to 2004. The radionuclides of interest were (99)Tc, (137)Cs, (239,240)Pu and (241)Am and the exposure routes considered were food consumption, external and inhalation. The consumption of locally grown terrestrial food in the early to mid 1980s was the most significant source of exposure to all of the groups considered, with (239,240)Pu being the radionuclide contributing most to the dose. A maximum dose of 1.46muSvy(-1) was calculated for adult members of the critical consumption group in 1985, with doses for 2004 reducing to 0.59muSvy(-1). Despite the conservative approach of the dose calculations, the dose rate values are very low, less than 0.15% of the annual limit of 1000muSvy(-1) for the UK public from controlled radiation sources (excluding medical).     

Doses of external exposure in Jordan house due to gamma-emitting natural radionuclides in building materials

The use of building materials containing naturally occurring radionuclides as ⁴⁰K, ²³²Th, and ²³⁸U and their progeny results in external exposures of the residents of such buildings. In the present study, indoor dose rates for a typical Jordan concrete room are calculated using Monte Carlo method. Uniform chemical composition of the walls, floor and ceiling as well as uniform mass concentrations of the radionuclides in walls, floor and ceiling are assumed.Using activity concentrations of natural radionuclides typical for the Jordan houses and assuming them to be in secular equilibrium with their progeny, the maximum annual effective doses are estimated to be 0.16, 0.12 and 0.22 mSv a⁻¹ for ⁴⁰K, ²³²Th- and ²³⁸U-series, respectively. In a total, the maximum annual effective indoor dose due to external γ-radiation is 0.50 mSv a⁻¹. Additionally, organ dose coefficients are calculated for all organs considered in ICRP Publication 74. Breast, skin and eye lenses have the maximum equivalent dose rate values due to indoor exposures caused by the natural radionuclides, while equivalent dose rates for uterus, colon (LLI) and small intestine are found to be the smallest. More specifically, organ dose rates (nSv a⁻¹ per Bq kg⁻¹) vary from 0.044 to 0.060 for ⁴⁰K, from 0.44 to 0.60 for radionuclides from ²³⁸U-series and from 0.60 to 0.81 for radionuclides from ²³²Th-series.The obtained organ and effective dose conversion coefficients can be conveniently used in practical dose assessment tasks for the rooms of similar geometry and varying activity concentrations and local-specific occupancy factors.     

Model testing using data on 137Cs from Chernobyl fallout in the Iput River catchment area of Russia

Data collected for 10 years following the Chernobyl accident in 1986 have provided a unique opportunity to test the reliability of computer models for contamination of terrestrial and aquatic environments. The Iput River scenario was used by the Dose Reconstruction Working Group of the BIOMASS (Biosphere Modelling and Assessment Methods) programme. The test area was one of the most highly contaminated areas in Russia following the accident, with an average contamination density of 137Cs of 800,000 Bq m-2 and localized contamination up to 1,500,000 Bq m-2, and a variety of countermeasures that were implemented in the test area had to be considered in the modelling exercise. Difficulties encountered during the exercise included averaging of data to account for uneven contamination of the test area, simulating the downward migration and changes in bioavailability of 137Cs in soil, and modelling the effectiveness of countermeasures. The accuracy of model predictions is dependent at least in part on the experience and judgment of the participant in interpretation of input information, selection of parameter values, and treatment of uncertainties.     

Modelling and experimental studies on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit

Although fruit is an important component of the diet, the extent to which it contributes to radiological exposure remains unclear, partially as a consequence of uncertainties in models and data used to assess transfer of radionuclides in the food chain. A Fruits Working Group operated as part of the IAEA BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) programme from 1997 to 2000, with the aim of improving the robustness of the models that are used for radiological assessment. The Group completed a number of modelling and experimental activities including: (i) a review of experimental, field and modelling information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (ii) discussion of recently completed or ongoing experimental studies; (iii) development of a database on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (iv) development of a conceptual model for fruit and (v) two model intercomparison studies and a model validation study. The Group achieved significant advances in understanding the processes involved in transfer of radionuclides to fruit. The work demonstrated that further experimental and modelling studies are required to ensure that the current generation of models can be applied to a wide range of scenarios.     

Modeling of the EMRAS urban working group hypothetical scenario using the RESRAD-RDD methodology

The RESRAD-RDD methodology was applied to model the short- and long-term radiation exposures after a hypothetical radiological dispersal device (RDD) event in an urban environment. It was assumed that an RDD event would result in outside surface contamination of the exterior walls and roofs of surrounding buildings, as well as associated paved areas and lawns. The contaminants also might move inside the buildings and deposit on floors and interior walls. Some important input parameters include occupancy factors, building characteristics, and weathering of surface contamination. The modeling results include predicted external dose rates, relative contributions from important surfaces, annual and cumulative doses, and radionuclide concentrations. Potential countermeasures evaluated include grass removal, soil removal, and washing of paved areas.     

Radiological risk assessment and biosphere modelling for radioactive waste disposal in Switzerland

Long-term safety assessments for geological disposal of radioactive waste in Switzerland involve the demonstration that the annual radiation dose to humans due to the potential release of radionuclides from the waste repository into the biosphere will not exceed the regulatory limit of 0.1 mSv. Here, we describe the simple but robust approach used by Nagra (Swiss National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste) to quantify the dose to humans as a result to time-dependent release of radionuclides from the geosphere into the biosphere. The model calculates the concentrations of radionuclides in different terrestrial and aquatic compartments of the surface environment. The fluxes of water and solids within the environment are the drivers for the exchange of radionuclides between these compartments. The calculated radionuclide concentrations in the biosphere are then used to estimate the radiation doses to humans due to various exposure paths (e.g. ingestion of radionuclides via drinking water and food, inhalation of radionuclides, external irradiation from radionuclides in soils). In this paper we also discuss recent new achievements and planned future work.     

Modified approach to modelling radiological consequences from releases into the marine environment

One of the general assumptions for box modelling of the dispersion of radionuclides in marine systems relates to instantaneous mixing in each box which, in turn, results in practical calculations involving instantaneous mixing in the whole of oceanic space. A new approach to box modelling, which includes dispersion of radionuclides as a function of time, was therefore developed in order to provide a better and more realistic/physical approximation to reality relative to traditional box modelling. The novel and significant practical features of the approach are discussed. Calculations of concentrations of radionuclides in the marine environment and doses to man for some scenarios indicate differences of up to orders of magnitude between the traditional and new approaches to box modelling.     

Exposure of biota in the cooling pond of Ignalina NPP: hydrophytes

The radiological assessment of non-human biota is now accepted by a number of international bodies. In this connection the scientific basis to assess and evaluate biota internal and external radiation exposure is required. This paper presents the comparison of freshwater biota (hydrophyte species) exposure due to discharged anthropogenic radionuclides with that due to natural background radiation. The radionuclides from Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (Lithuania) are discharged into cooling pond - Druksiai Lake. Submerged hydrophytes were selected as biota exposure indicators because they represent the largest biomass in this lake and have comparatively high radionuclide activity concentrations. The detailed methodology evaluation of the submerged hydrophyte dose rate is presented. The ionizing radiation exposure dose rates to submerged hydrophyte roots and above sediment parts due to the major radionuclides ((54)Mn, (60)Co, (137)Cs, (90)Sr) discharged into the INPP cooling pond - Druksiai Lake were 0.044 microGyh(-1) and 0.004 microGyh(-1), respectively. The internal exposure dose rate due to natural background alpha-emitters ((210)Po,(238)U, (226)Ra) was estimated to be 1.24 microGyh(-1), as compared with that of anthropogenic alpha-emitter (240)Pu - 0.04 microGyh(-1), whereas the external exposure was 0.069 microGyh(-1). The presented data deeper the knowledge about the concentration of radionuclides and submerged hydrophytes' exposure dose rates in European freshwater ecosystems.     

Radionuclide transfer to fruits: A critical review. Foreword

After completion of the (Validation of Environmental Model Predictions) (VAMP) and (BIOspheric Model Validation Study) (BIOMOVS II) Programmes, the Division of Radiation and Waste Safety of the IAEA decided to promote a new co-ordinated research programme to continue activities in the area of biosphere modelling. As a result, the BIOMASS Programme on BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment was launched in Vienna in October 1996. The Programme is scheduled to finish in October 2000. The overall objective of BIOMASS is to provide an international focal point in the area of biosphere assessment modelling. There are 3 Themes and 11 working groups in BIOMASS. The objective of the Theme 3 Fruits Working Group is to improve understanding of the uptake and transfer of radionuclides from different sources to fruit. As part of the work programme, a review was undertaken of the experimental, field and modelling information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit.     

Application of the ERICA Assessment Tool to freshwater biota in Finland

In recent years there has been growing international interest in the assessment of doses and risks from ionising contaminants to biota. In this study the ERICA Tool, developed within the EC 6th Framework Programme, was applied to estimate incremental dose rates to biota in freshwater ecosystems in Finland mainly resulting from exposure to the Chernobyl-derived radionuclides ¹³⁷Cs, ¹³⁴Cs and ⁹⁰Sr. Data sets consisting of measured activity concentrations in fish, aquatic plants, lake water and sediment for three selected lakes located in a region with high ¹³⁷Cs deposition were applied in the assessment. The dose rates to most species studied were clearly below the screening level of 10 μGy h⁻¹, indicating no significant impact of the Chernobyl fallout on these species. However, the possibility of higher dose rates to certain species living on or in the bottom sediment cannot be excluded based on this assessment.     

Sea to land transfer of anthropogenic radionuclides to the North Wales coast, Part I: external gamma radiation and radionuclide concentrations in intertidal sediments, soil and air

Previous projects specifically aimed at performing radiological assessments in the vicinity of North Wales, investigating the presence and transfer of radionuclides from sea to land, were in 1986 and 1989. Since then, changes have occurred in the radioactive discharges from the British Nuclear Group Sellafield site. Annual discharges of (137)Cs, (238)Pu, (239,340)Pu and (241)Am have decreased markedly whereas, up until recent years, discharges of (99)Tc have increased. It is therefore desirable to quantify current transfer processes of radionuclides in the North Wales region and thus provide an update on 15-year-old studies. A field campaign was conducted collecting soil samples from 10 inland transects and air particulates on air filters from three High Volume Air Samplers, along the northern coast of Wales at Amlwch, Bangor Pier and Flint. Complementary field data relating to external gamma dose rates were collected at the soil sites. The field data generated for (137)Cs, (238)Pu, (239,340)Pu and (241)Am were consistent with what had been reported 15 years previously. Therefore, there has been no increase in the supply of these Sellafield-derived radionuclides to the terrestrial environment of the North Wales coast. The (99)Tc data in sediments were consistent with reported values within annual monitoring programmes, however, a relatively high activity concentration was measured in one sediment sample. This site was further investigated to determine the reason why such a high value was found. At present there is no clear evidence as to why this elevated concentration should be present, but the role of seaweed and its capacity in accumulating (99)Tc and transferring it to sediment is of interest. The analysis of the field samples for (99)Tc, (137)Cs, (238)Pu, (239,240)Pu and (241)Am has provided a data set that can be used for the modelling of the transfer of anthropogenic radionuclides from sea to land and its subsequent radiological implications and is reported in an accompanying paper.     

Methods for calculating dose conversion coefficients for terrestrial and aquatic biota

Plants and animals may be exposed to ionizing radiation from radionuclides in the environment. This paper describes the underlying data and assumptions to assess doses to biota due to internal and external exposure for a wide range of masses and shapes living in various habitats. A dosimetric module is implemented which is a user-friendly and flexible possibility to assess dose conversion coefficients for aquatic and terrestrial biota. The dose conversion coefficients have been derived for internal and various external exposure scenarios. The dosimetric model is linked to radionuclide decay and emission database, compatible with the ICRP Publication 38, thus providing a capability to compute dose conversion coefficients for any nuclide from the database and its daughter nuclides. The dosimetric module has been integrated into the ERICA Tool, but it can also be used as a stand-alone version.     

Carbon-14 transfer into rice plants from a continuous atmospheric source: observations and model predictions

Carbon-14 ((14)C) is one of the most important radionuclides from the perspective of dose estimation due to the nuclear fuel cycle. Ten years of monitoring data on (14)C in airborne emissions, in atmospheric CO(2) and in rice grain collected around the Tokai reprocessing plant (TRP) showed an insignificant radiological effect of the TRP-derived (14)C on the public, but suggested a minor contribution of the TRP-derived (14)C to atmospheric (14)C concentrations, and an influence on (14)C concentrations in rice grain at harvest. This paper also summarizes a modelling exercise (the so-called rice scenario of the IAEA's EMRAS program) in which (14)C concentrations in air and rice predicted with various models using information on (14)C discharge rates, meteorological conditions and so on were compared with observed concentrations. The modelling results showed that simple Gaussian plume models with different assumptions predict monthly averaged (14)C concentrations in air well, even for near-field receptors, and also that specific activity and dynamic models were equally good for the prediction of inter-annual changes in (14)C concentrations in rice grain. The scenario, however, offered little opportunity for comparing the predictive capabilities of these two types of models because the scenario involved a near-chronic release to the atmosphere. A scenario based on an episodic release and short-term, time-dependent observations is needed to establish the overall confidence in the predictions of environmental (14)C models.     

A box model for calculation of collective dose commitment from radioactive waterborne releases to the baltic sea

To meet the new regulations of maximum yearly releases from Swedish nuclear power plants issued by the Swedish National Radiation Protection Institute, and to make realistic calculations of collective dose commitment derived from radionuclides discharged to the Baltic Sea, a box model AQUAPATH-BALTIC has been developed. The model calculates radionuclide concentrations in 25 boxes for discharges into given compartments and takes into consideration the dispersion rates of the water masses, the sediment-water interaction and radioactive decay. The calculated concentrations in water and sediment at steady state are then used to evaluate individual and collective intakes of activity and external exposures. The radiation doses to the global population following discharges to the Baltic Sea are also calculated.     

A soil sampling intercomparison exercise for the ALMERA network

Soil sampling and analysis for radionuclides after an accidental or routine release is a key factor for the dose calculation to members of the public, and for the establishment of possible countermeasures. The IAEA organized for selected laboratories of the ALMERA (Analytical Laboratories for the Measurement of Environmental Radioactivity) network a Soil Sampling Intercomparison Exercise (IAEA/SIE/01) with the objective of comparing soil sampling procedures used by different laboratories. The ALMERA network is a world-wide network of analytical laboratories located in IAEA member states capable of providing reliable and timely analysis of environmental samples in the event of an accidental or intentional release of radioactivity. Ten ALMERA laboratories were selected to participate in the sampling exercise. The soil sampling intercomparison exercise took place in November 2005 in an agricultural area qualified as a “reference site”, aimed at assessing the uncertainties associated with soil sampling in agricultural, semi-natural, urban and contaminated environments and suitable for performing sampling intercomparison. In this paper, the laboratories sampling performance were evaluated.     

The Bulgarian Emergency Response System for dose assessment in the early stage of accidental releases to the atmosphere

The Bulgarian Emergency Response System (BERS) is being developed in the Bulgarian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology since 1994. BERS is based on numerical weather forecast meteorological information and a numerical long-range dispersion model accounting for the transport, dispersion, chemical and radioactive transformations of pollutants. In the present paper, the further development of this system for a mixture of radioactive gaseous and aerosol pollutants is described. The basic module for the BERS, the numerical dispersion model EMAP, is upgraded with a “dose calculation block”. Two scenarios for hypothetical accidental atmospheric releases from two NPPs, one in Western, and the other in Eastern Europe, are numerically simulated. The effective doses from external irradiation, from air submersion and ground shinning, effective dose from inhalation and absorbed dose by thyroid gland formed by 37 different radionuclides, significant for the early stage of a nuclear accident, are calculated as dose fields for both case studies and discussed.     

Long-term environmental problems of radioactively contaminated land

This paper examines the various sources of radiological land contamination; its extent; its impacts on man, agriculture, and the environment; countermeasures for mitigating exposures; radiological standards; alternatives for achieving land decontamination and cleanup; and possible alternatives for utilizing the land. The major potential sources of extensive long-term land contamination with radionuclides, in order of decreasing extent, are nuclear war, detonation of a single nuclear weapon (e.g. terrorist act), serious reactor accidents, and nonfission nuclear weapons accidents that disperse the nuclear fuels (termed) “broken arrows”). Over the long term, external radiation doses are dominated primarily by ¹³⁷Cs and internal radiation doses primarily by ⁹⁰Sr. Plutonium and the transuranic elements are also important, primarily because of their long half-lives and relatively high inhalation doses. Costs for cleanup of contaminated land are very high. For example, cleanup of the broken arrow in Palomares, Spain, was approximately $33,600 per hectare. If cleanup of agricultural land is impractical, alternative land uses might include production of fiber crops, seed-stock crops, or plant biomass for alcohol fuels, or diversion of the land from crop production. Conversion of cropland to pasture or rangeland takes benefit from the generally lower accumulation of radionuclides into animals products compared with plant products. Another alternative is to fence off the land and use it for production of timber. This alternative would allow for 25–100 y or more of radiological decay before recovery of the timber.