Evaluating the impact of caribou habitat restoration on predator and prey movement

Fragmentation of the boreal forest by linear features, including seismic lines, has destabilized predator–prey dynamics, resulting in the decline of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations. Restoration of human-altered habitat has therefore been identified as a critical management tool for achieving self-sustaining woodland caribou populations. However, only recently has testing of the response of caribou and other wildlife to restoration activities been conducted. Early work has centered around assessing changes in wildlife use of restored seismic lines. We evaluated whether restoration reduces the movement rates of predators and their associated prey, which is expected to decrease predator hunting efficiency and ultimately reduce caribou mortality. We developed a new method for using cameras to measure fine-scale movement by measuring speed as animals traveled between cameras in an array. We used our method to quantify speed of caribou, moose (Alces alces), bears (Ursus americanus), and wolves (Canis lupus) on treated (restored) and untreated seismic lines. Restoration treatments reduced travel speeds along seismic lines of wolves by 1.38 km/h, bears by 0.55 km/h, and caribou by 1.57 km/h, but did not reduce moose travel speeds. Reduced predator and caribou speeds on treated seismic lines are predicted to decrease encounter rates between predators and caribou and thus lower caribou kill rates. However, further work is needed to determine whether reduced movement rates result in reduced encounter rates with prey, and ultimately reduced caribou mortality.     

Indirect effects and traditional trophic cascades: a test involving wolves, coyotes, and pronghorn

The traditional trophic cascades model is based on consumer resource interactions at each link in a food chain. However, trophic-level interactions, such as mesocarnivore release resulting from intraguild predation, may also be important mediators of cascades. From September 2001 to August 2004, we used spatial and seasonal heterogeneity in wolf distribution and abundance in the southern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem to evaluate whether mesopredator release of coyotes (Canis latrans), resulting from the extirpation of wolves (Canis lupus), accounts for high rates of coyote predation on pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) fawns observed in some areas. Results of this ecological perturbation in wolf densities, coyote densities, and pronghorn neonatal survival at wolf-free and wolf-abundant sites support the existence of a species-level trophic cascade. That wolves precipitated a trophic cascade was evidenced by fawn survival rates that were four-fold higher at sites used by wolves. A negative correlation between coyote and wolf densities supports the hypothesis that interspecific interactions between the two species facilitated the difference in fawn survival. Whereas densities of resident coyotes were similar between wolf-free and wolf-abundant sites, the abundance of transient coyotes was significantly lower in areas used by wolves. Thus, differential effects of wolves on solitary coyotes may be an important mechanism by which wolves limit coyote densities. Our results support the hypothesis that mesopredator release of coyotes contributes to high rates of coyote predation on pronghorn fawns, and demonstrate the importance of alternative food web pathways in structuring the dynamics of terrestrial systems.     

Do yellow-bellied marmots respond to predator vocalizations?

We conducted four experiments to determine whether yellow-bellied marmots, Marmota flaviventris, discriminate among predator vocalizations, and if so, whether the recognition mechanism is learned or experience-independent. First, we broadcast to marmots the social sounds of coyotes, Canis latrans, wolves, Canis lupus, and golden eagles, Aquila chrysaetos, as well as conspecific alarm calls. Coyotes and eagles are extant predators at our study site, while wolves have been absent since the mid-1930s. In three follow-up experiments, we reversed the eagle call and presented marmots with forward and reverse calls to control for response to general properties of call structure rather than those specifically associated with eagles, we tested for novelty by comparing responses to familiar and unfamiliar birds, and we tested for the duration of predator sounds by comparing a wolf howl (that was much longer than the coyote in the first experiment) with a long coyote howl of equal duration to the original wolf. Marmots suppressed foraging and increased looking most after presentation of the conspecific alarm call and least after that of the coyote in the first experiment, with moderate responses to wolf and eagle calls. Marmots responded more to the forward eagle call than the reverse call, a finding consistent with a recognition template. Marmots did not differentiate vocalizations from the novel and familiar birds, suggesting that novelty itself did not explain our results. Furthermore, marmots did not differentiate between a wolf howl and a coyote howl of equal duration, suggesting that the duration of the vocalizations played a role in the marmots’ response. Our results show that marmots may respond to predators based solely on acoustic stimuli. The response to currently novel wolf calls suggests that they have an experience-independent ability to identify certain predators acoustically. Marmots’ response to predator vocalizations is not unexpected because 25 of 30 species in which acoustic predator discrimination has been studied have a demonstrated ability to respond selectively to cues from their predators.     

The causes and consequences of partial prey consumption by wolves preying on moose

For a wide range of taxa, partial prey consumption (PPC) is a frequent occurrence. PPC may arise from physiological constraints to gut capacity or digestive rate. Alternatively, PPC may represent an optimal foraging strategy. Assessments that clearly distinguish between these causes are rare and have been conducted only for invertebrate species that are ambush predators with extra-intestinal digestion (e.g., wolf spiders). We present the first strong test for the cause of PPC in a cursorial vertebrate predator with intestinal digestion: wolves (Canis lupus) feeding on moose (Alces alces). Previous theoretical assessments indicate that if PPC represents an optimal foraging strategy and is not caused by physiological limitations, then mean carcass utilization is negatively correlated with mean kill rate and the utilization of individual carcasses is uncorrelated with time between kills. Wolves exhibit exactly this pattern. We explore how the typical portrayal of PPC by wolves has been not only misleading but also detrimental to conservation by promoting negative attitudes toward wolves.     

Longitudinal Analysis of Attitudes Toward Wolves

Understanding individual attitudes and how these predict overt opposition to predator conservation or direct, covert action against predators will help to recover and maintain them. Studies of attitudes toward wild animals rely primarily on samples of individuals at a single time point. We examined longitudinal change in individuals’ attitudes toward gray wolves (Canis lupus). In the contiguous United States, amidst persistent controversy and opposition, abundances of gray wolves are at their highest in 60 years. We used mailed surveys to sample 1892 residents of Wisconsin in 2001 or 2004 and then resampled 656 of these individuals who resided in wolf range in 2009. Our study spanned a period of policy shifts and increasing wolf abundance. Over time, the 656 respondents increased agreement with statements reflecting fear of wolves, the belief that wolves compete with hunters for deer (Odocoileus virginianus), and inclination to poach a wolf. Endorsement of lethal control of wolves by the state and public hunting of wolves also increased. Neither the time span over which respondents reported exposure to wolves locally nor self‐reported losses of domestic animals to wolves correlated with changes in attitude. We predict future increases in legal and illegal killing of wolves that may reduce their abundance in Wisconsin unless interventions are implemented to improve attitudes and behavior toward wolves. To assess whether interventions change attitudes, longitudinal studies like ours are needed. Análisis Longitudinal de las Actitudes Hacia Lobos     

Conservation Strategies for Species Affected by Apparent Competition

Apparent competition is an indirect interaction between 2 or more prey species through a shared predator, and it is increasingly recognized as a mechanism of the decline and extinction of many species. Through case studies, we evaluated the effectiveness of 4 management strategies for species affected by apparent competition: predator control, reduction in the abundances of alternate prey, simultaneous control of predators and alternate prey, and no active management of predators or alternate prey. Solely reducing predator abundances rapidly increased abundances of alternate and rare prey, but observed increases are likely short‐lived due to fast increases in predator abundance following the cessation of control efforts. Substantial reductions of an abundant alternate prey resulted in increased predation on endangered huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus) deer in Chilean Patagonia, which highlights potential risks associated with solely reducing alternate prey species. Simultaneous removal of predators and alternate prey increased survival of island foxes (Urocyon littoralis) in California (U.S.A.) above a threshold required for population recovery. In the absence of active management, populations of rare woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) continued to decline in British Columbia, Canada. On the basis of the cases we examined, we suggest the simultaneous control of predators and alternate prey is the management strategy most likely to increase abundances and probabilities of persistence of rare prey over the long term. Knowing the mechanisms driving changes in species’ abundances before implementing any management intervention is critical. We suggest scientists can best contribute to the conservation of species affected by apparent competition by clearly communicating the biological and demographic forces at play to policy makers responsible for the implementation of proposed management actions. Estrategias de Conservación para Especies Afectadas por Competencia Aparente     

Effects of climate change on moose populations: Exploring the response horizon through biometric and systems models

Interest in the response of moose to climate change has increased because of the potential role they play in the conservation of woodland caribou, and threatened loss to recreational and economic opportunities. The objective of this study is to develop a plausible, parsimonious, systems-level model of moose population dynamics that will be useful in exploring the response of moose populations to climate projections. The study begins with a statistical model of moose carrying capacity, which is then integrated into a systems-level model that predicts moose density based on explicit causal factors. Scenario analysis was conducted using a variety of assumptions concerning biotic and abiotic interactions, and under the A2 climate scenario all model scenarios predict a decline of moose density at the southern limits of the Ontario distribution and an increase at the northern extents. Predicted declines are a result of lower carrying capacity and higher heat stress, parasite loads and wolf predation. Given the sensitivity of the model to density-dependent factors, the indirect effect of parasites on decreased recruitment may have greater impact on moose than the direct effect of increased death rate. Results indicate that conservation planning for woodland caribou populations should account for possible increases in moose and wolf populations.     

Pleistocene Reindeer and Global Warming

Abstract:  Current concerns for the future of reindeer and caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) in the far north under conditions of global warming focus on the increased energetic and predation costs associated with warmer winters and on vegetation change and increased insect harassment caused by warmer summers. At the Grotte XVI archaeological site (Dordogne, southwestern France), episodes of summer warming between about 36,000 and 12,000 radiocarbon years ago appear to be associated with lowered relative abundances of reindeer. As the Pleistocene ended and summer temperatures climbed higher, reindeer were extirpated from southern France. A similar phenomenon appears to have occurred here during the prior Eemian interglacial. These records suggest that increased summer temperatures under conditions of global warming may have a direct negative effect on reindeer and caribou populations, including a northward displacement of their southern distributional boundary.     

The Role of Translocation in Recovery of Woodland Caribou Populations

Abstract: Maintenance of viable populations of many endangered species will require conservation action in perpetuity. Efforts to conserve these species are more likely to be successful if their reliance on conservation actions is assessed at the population level. Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) were extirpated recently from Banff National Park, Canada, and translocations of caribou to Banff and neighboring Jasper National Park are being considered. We used population viability analysis to assess the relative need for and benefits from translocation of individuals among caribou populations. We measured stochastic growth rates and the probability of quasi extinction of four populations of woodland caribou with and without translocation. We used two vital rates in our analysis: mean adult female survival and mean number of calves per breeding‐age female as estimates of mean fecundity. We isolated process variance for each vital rate. Our results suggested the Tonquin caribou population in Jasper is likely to remain viable without translocation, but that translocation is probably insufficient to prevent eventual extirpation of the two other populations in Jasper. Simulated reintroductions of caribou into Banff resulted in a 53–98% probability of >8 females remaining after 20 years, which suggests translocation may be an effective recovery tool for some caribou populations.     

Molecular Taxonomy and the Conservation of the Red Wolf and Other Endangered Carnivores

Recent publications have reaffirmed that the red wolf ( Canis rufus ) is a hybrid of the coyote and the gray wolf. Besides the implications these results will likely have for future conservation efforts and allotment of resources through the Endangered Species Act for recovery of the red wolf, it is likely that broader consequences will be felt throughout the conservation community as species come under the scrutiny of a more powerful means of taxonomic identification. As molecular technology is refined in its ability to resolve taxonomic histories and uncertainties, it is likely that hybridization event(s) will be recognized in more species. This may be of particular importance for large carnivores, whose small population sizes make them susceptible to hybridization episodes with closely related, sympatric species. Because of negative perceptions, powerful antipredator advocates, conservation and resource constraints, and an enigmatic hybrid policy within the Endangered Species Act, how red-wolf taxonomy is decided by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service may affect the future of large carnivores in general.     

Desert pastoralists’ negative and positive effects on rare wildlife in the Gobi

In arid regions of the developing world, pastoralists and livestock commonly inhabit protected areas, resulting in human–wildlife conflict. Conflict is inextricably linked to the ecological processes shaping relationships between pastoralists and native herbivores and carnivores. To elucidate relationships underpinning human–wildlife conflict, we synthesized 15 years of ecological and ethnographic data from Ikh Nart Nature Reserve in Mongolia's Gobi steppe. The density of argali (Ovis ammon), the world's largest wild sheep, at Ikh Nart was among the highest in Mongolia, yet livestock were >90% of ungulate biomass and dogs >90% of large‐carnivore biomass. For argali, pastoral activities decreased food availability, increased mortality from dog predation, and potentially increased disease risk. Isotope analyses indicated that livestock accounted for >50% of the diet of the majority of gray wolves (Canis lupus) and up to 90% of diet in 25% of sampled wolves (n = 8). Livestock composed at least 96% of ungulate prey in the single wolf pack for which we collected species‐specific prey data. Interviews with pastoralists indicated that wolves annually killed 1–4% of Ikh Nart's livestock, and pastoralists killed wolves in retribution. Pastoralists reduced wolf survival by killing them, but their livestock were an abundant food source for wolves. Consequently, wolf density appeared to be largely decoupled from argali density, and pastoralists had indirect effects on argali that could be negative if pastoralists increased wolf density (apparent competition) or positive if pastoralists decreased wolf predation (apparent facilitation). Ikh Nart's argali population was stable despite these threats, but livestock are increasingly dominant numerically and functionally relative to argali. To support both native wildlife and pastoral livelihoods, we suggest training dogs to not kill argali, community insurance against livestock losses to wolves, reintroducing key native prey species to hotspots of human–wolf conflict, and developing incentives for pastoralists to reduce livestock density.     

Wolves-coyotes-foxes: a cascade among carnivores

Due to the widespread eradication of large canids and felids, top predators in many terrestrial ecosystems are now medium-sized carnivores such as coyotes. Coyotes have been shown to increase songbird and rodent abundance and diversity by suppressing populations of small carnivores such as domestic cats and foxes. The restoration of gray wolves to many parts of North America, however, could alter this interaction chain. Here we use a 30-year time series of wolf, coyote, and fox relative abundance from the state of Minnesota, USA, to show that wolves suppress coyote populations, which in turn releases foxes from top-down control by coyotes. In contrast to mesopredator release theory, which has often considered the consequence of top predator removal in a three-species interaction chain (e.g., coyote-fox-prey), the presence of the top predator releases the smaller predator in a four-species interaction chain. Thus, heavy predation by abundant small predators might be more similar to the historical ecosystem before top-predator extirpation. The restructuring of predator communities due to the loss or restoration of top predators is likely to alter the size spectrum of heavily consumed prey with important implications for biodiversity and human health.     

Moral dimensions of human–wildlife conflict

Despite increasing support for conservation globally, controversy over specific conservation policies persists among diverse stakeholders. Investigating the links between morals in relation to conservation can help increase understanding about why humans support or oppose policy, especially related to human–wildlife conflict or human conflict over wildlife. Yet the moral dimension of human–wildlife conflict has mostly gone unconsidered and unmeasured; thus, policy and programmatic efforts to reduce controversy may be missing a key part of the equation. We conducted a web‐based survey (n = 1239 respondents) in Michigan (U.S.A.) to investigate cognitive and emotional influences on the value–behavior relationship. Respondents were identified by their interest and involvement in Michigan wolf management. The survey consisted of questions about values, emotions, cognitions, and behaviors relative to wolves in Michigan. We used path analysis to explore whether emotions and cognitions mediated the relationship between value and behavior. Most respondents attributed intrinsic value to wolves (n = 734) and all life (n = 773) and engaged in behaviors that benefited wolf populations and ecosystems regardless of stakeholder group (e.g., environmentalist, farmer). Attributing intrinsic value to wolves was positively related to favorable emotions toward wolves and cognitive assessments that hunting and trapping of wolves is unacceptable. Despite similarities in attribution of intrinsic value, groups differed in emotions and cognitions about wolf hunting. These differences provide a useful way to predict stakeholder behavior. Our findings may inform interventions aimed at increasing support for wolf management policies and positive interactions among stakeholders and wildlife. Leveraging agreement over intrinsic value may foster cooperation among stakeholders and garner support for controversial conservation policy.     

Paying for Tolerance: Rural Citizens' Attitudes toward Wolf Depredation and Compensation

Abstract:   As wolf ( Canis lupus ) populations recover in Wisconsin (U.S.A.), their depredations on livestock, pets, and hunting dogs have increased. We used a mail-back survey to assess the tolerance of 535 rural citizens of wolves and their preferences regarding the management of "problem" wolves. Specifically, we tested whether people who had lost domestic animals to wolves or other predators were less tolerant of wolves than neighboring residents who had not and whether compensation payments improved tolerance of wolves. We assessed tolerance via proxy measures related to an individual's preferred wolf population size for Wisconsin and the likelihood she or he would shoot a wolf. We also measured individuals' approval of lethal control and other wolf-management tactics under five conflict scenarios. Multivariate analysis revealed that the strongest predictor of tolerance was social group. Bear ( Ursus americanus ) hunters were concerned about losing valuable hounds to wolves and were more likely to approve of lethal control and reducing the wolf population than were livestock producers, who were more concerned than general residents. To a lesser degree, education level, experience of loss, and gender were also significant. Livestock producers and bear hunters who had been compensated for their losses to wolves were not more tolerant than their counterparts who alleged a loss but received no compensation. Yet all respondents approved of compensation payments as a management strategy. Our results indicate that deep-rooted social identity and occupation are more powerful predictors of tolerance of wolves than individual encounters with these large carnivores.     

Optimizing conservation in species-specific agricultural landscapes

Recovery of grassland birds in agricultural landscapes is a global imperative. Agricultural landscapes are complex, and the value of resource patches may vary substantially among species. The spatial extent at which landscape features affect populations (i.e., scale of effect) may also differ among species. There is a need for regional-scale conservation planning that considers landscape-scale and species-specific responses of grassland birds to environmental change. We developed a spatially explicit approach to optimizing grassland conservation in the context of species-specific landscapes and prioritization of species recovery and applied it to a conservation program in Kentucky (USA). We used a hierarchical distance-sampling model with an embedded scale of effect predictor to estimate the relationship between landscape structure and abundance of eastern meadowlarks (Sturnella magna), field sparrows (Spizella pusilla), and northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus). We used a novel spatially explicit optimization procedure rooted in multi-attribute utility theory to design alternative conservation strategies (e.g., prioritize only northern bobwhite recovery or assign equal weight to each species’ recovery). Eastern meadowlarks and field sparrows were more likely to respond to landscape-scale resource patch adjacencies than landscape-scale patch densities. Northern bobwhite responded to both landscape-scale resource patch adjacencies and densities and responded strongly to increased grassland density. Effects of landscape features on local abundance decreased as distance increased and had negligible influence at 0.8 km for eastern meadowlarks (0.7–1.2 km 95% Bayesian credibility intervals [BCI]), 2.5 km for field sparrows (1.5–5.8 km 95% BCI), and 8.4 km for bobwhite (6.4–26 km 95% BCI). Northern bobwhites were predicted to benefit greatly from future grassland conservation regardless of conservation priorities, but eastern meadowlark and field sparrow were not. Our results suggest similar species can respond differently to broad-scale conservation practices because of species-specific, distance-dependent relationships with landscape structure. Our framework is quantitative, conceptually simple, customizable, and predictive and can be used to optimize conservation in heterogeneous ecosystems while considering landscape-scale processes and explicit prioritization of species recovery.     

Mitochondrial DNA Variability of the Gray Wolf: Genetic Consequences of Population Decline and Habitat Fragmentation

The gray wolf is a large, highly mobile predator whose original geographic range included most of the Northern Hemisphere. High rates of genetic exchange probably characterized even distantly-separated populations in the past, but recent population declines and habitat fragmentation have isolated previously contiguous populations, especially in the Old World. We examine mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variability among twenty-six populations of wolves from throughout their geographic range. We find eighteen mtDNA genotypes in gray wolves, seven of these are derived from hybridization with coyotes, four are confined to the New World, six are confined to the Old World and one is shared by both areas. Genetic differentiation among wolf populations is significant but small in magnitude. In the Old World, most localities have a single unique genotype, whereas in the New World several genotypes occur at most localities and three of the five genotypes are nearly ubiquitous. The pattern of genetic differentiation in the gray wolf contrasts with that of another large, highly vagile canid, the coyote, in which genetic differentiation among populations is not significant even among widely separated localities. We suggest that the difference between these two species reflects the rapid, recent increase in coyote numbers and expansion of their geographic range, and the coincident decline in gray wolf populations. Apparent genetic differences among extant wolf populations may be a recent phenomenon reflecting population declines and habitat fragmentation rather than a long history of genetic isolation.     

Discrimination of predatory versus nonpredatory mammals by box turtles, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Terrapene carolina</Emphasis>

Summary. Although terrestrial turtles have served as a model for studies of olfactory neurophysiology, little is known about how they use chemical information in an ecological sense. We tested whether box turtles (Terrapene carolina) use chemical information to distinguish between predatory and nonpredatory mammals. Box turtles in our study exhibited more escape behavior when exposed to urine from a predator (coyote, Canis latrans) than when exposed to urine from a nonpredator (white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus) or a blank control. Escape behavior is consistent with an antipredator response. In addition, the turtles decreased their handling time for food when in the presence of urine from either species of mammal in comparison to the blank, indicating that chemical cues from mammals in general may result in increased vigilance by terrestrial turtles. Examination of a variety of response variables may be important for adequate assessment of the ecological role of chemosensory behavior.     

Molecular Genetics of Pre-1940 Red Wolves

Conservation of the endangered red wolf (Canis rufus) has become a controversial issue because its genetic and morphological composition has been altered by hybridization with coyotes (C. latrans) and possibly gray wolves (C. lupus) making its evolutionary origins difficult to ascertain. The evolutionary hypothesis based on morphological data is that the red wolf had an Early Pleistocene origin and was the predecessor of both modern coyotes and gray wolves. After 1940 red wolves hybridized with coyotes as the species vanished from the wild. In contrast to this ancient origin-recent introgression hypothesis, molecular data are more consistent with an origin through hybridization between gray wolves and coyotes. Interspecific hybridization may have occurred repeatedly over time prior to European settlement in the southcentral United States or may have been induced recently by anthropogenic changes. We review recent molecular evidence and present new results from the analysis of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA markers in pre-1940 populations of red wolves. Our results are inconsistent with an ancient origin of the red wolf and support the hybridization model. We discuss possible hybridization scenarios and reasons for the red wolf reintroduction program to be concerned with the effects of genetic introgression from coyotes.     

Hunting Effects on Favourable Conservation Status of Highly Inbred Swedish Wolves

The wolf (Canis lupus) is classified as endangered in Sweden by the Swedish Species Information Centre, which is the official authority for threat classification. The present population, which was founded in the early 1980s, descends from 5 individuals. It is isolated and highly inbred, and on average individuals are more related than siblings. Hunts have been used by Swedish authorities during 2010 and 2011 to reduce the population size to its upper tolerable level of 210 wolves. European Union (EU) biodiversity legislation requires all member states to promote a concept called “favourable conservation status” (FCS) for a series of species including the wolf. Swedish national policy stipulates maintenance of viable populations with sufficient levels of genetic variation of all naturally occurring species. Hunting to reduce wolf numbers in Sweden is currently not in line with national and EU policy agreements and will make genetically based FCS criteria less achievable for this species. We suggest that to reach FCS for the wolf in Sweden the following criteria need to be met: (1) a well‐connected, large, subdivided wolf population over Scandinavia, Finland, and the Russian Karelia‐Kola region should be reestablished, (2) genetically effective size (N_e) of this population is in the minimum range of N_e = 500–1000, (3) Sweden harbors a part of this total population that substantially contributes to the total N_e and that is large enough to not be classified as threatened genetically or according to IUCN criteria, and (4) average inbreeding levels in the Swedish population are <0.1. Efectos de la Cacería sobre el Estatus de Conservación Favorable de Lobos Suecos con Endogamia Alta     

Dynamics of Hybridization and Introgression in Red Wolves and Coyotes

Abstract:  Hybridization and introgression are significant causes of endangerment in many taxa and are considered the greatest biological threats to the reintroduced population of red wolves ( Canis rufus ) in North Carolina (U.S.A.). Little is known, however, about these processes in red wolves and coyotes ( C. latrans ). We used individual-based simulations to examine the process of hybridization and introgression between these species. Under the range of circumstances we considered, red wolves in colonizing and established populations were quickly extirpated, persisted near the carrying capacity, or had intermediate outcomes. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the probabilities of quasi extinction and persistence of red wolves near the carrying capacity were most affected by the strength of two reproductive barriers: red wolf challenges and assortative mating between red wolves and coyotes. Because model parameters for these barriers may be difficult to estimate, we also sought to identify other predictors of red wolf population fate. The proportion of pure red wolves in the population was a strong predictor of the future probabilities of red wolf quasi extinction and persistence. Finally, we examined whether sterilization can be effective in minimizing introgression while allowing the reintroduced red wolf population to grow. Our results suggest sterilization can be an effective short-term strategy to reduce the likelihood of extirpation in colonizing populations of red wolves. Whether red wolf numbers are increased by sterilization depends on the level of sterilization effort and the acting reproductive barriers. Our results provide an outline of the conditions likely required for successful reestablishment and long-term maintenance of populations of wild red wolves in the presence of coyotes. Our modeling approach may prove generally useful in providing insight into situations involving complex species interactions when data are few.