The underutilization of street markets as a source of food security indicators in famine early warning systems: a case study of Ethiopia

Famine Early Warning Systems (EWS) are reliant on data aggregated from multiple sources. Consequently, they are often insensitive to localized changes in food security status, leading to delayed response or interventions. While price and infrastructural data are often gathered, this case study suggests that local street markets and vendor knowledge are underutilized. Few efforts have been made to monitor systematically the street markets as an indicator of local stressors. Findings from Ethiopia show that knowledge generated by expanding food security indicators in this sector can be used in combination with EWS to facilitate earlier intervention in, or to monitor more effectively, on-going humanitarian crises. Indicators developed from this study are accurate, cost effective, and sensitive to local climatic and food stressors.     

Continue to blame it on the rain? Conceptualization of drought and failure of food systems in the Greater Horn of Africa

Food insecurity continues to be prevalent in parts of Africa. In December 2015, there were approximately 21.6 million food insecure people in the Horn and East Africa. Climate change is likely to exacerbate current volatility of agricultural production and lead to further food insecurity. Whilst the academic literature has acknowledged the complexity of food insecurity and systems, it is not clear to what extent this has been translated into practice. We argue that there is a tendency to explain complex failures of food systems as ‘droughts’, with insufficient attention paid to other drivers. We analyse humanitarian documents and climate outlook statements in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia and assess how these are reflected in the humanitarian responses to food insecurity in the region by analysing the financing of humanitarian operations. Our findings indicate that the continued evolution in understanding the complex causes of food insecurity and attempts to move away from emergency relief to a more sophisticated approach has not translated into an observable change in humanitarian responses. The reasons behind this persistence of short-term relief, which is being justified with reference to climatic factors, mainly drought, would warrant further research into the decision-making process that triggers humanitarian responses.

List of abbreviations: ACF: Action Contre le Faim; DCM: Drought Cycle Management; DEC: Disaster Emergency Committee; ECHO: European Commission Humanitarian Office; EU: European Union; EWS: Early Warning System; FAO: Food and Agricultural Organization; FEWSNET: Famine Early Warning System Network; FSNAU: Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit; FTS: Financial Tracking Service; GHACOF: Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum; GIEWS: Global Information and Early Warning System; IASC: Inter Agency Standing Committee; ICPAC: IGAD Climate Application and Prediction Centre; IFRC: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies; IGAD: Inter-Governmental Authority on Development; IPCC: International Panel for Climate Change; LEWS: Livestock Early Warning System; ODI: Overseas Development Initiative; PASDEP: Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to Eradicate Poverty; PSNP: Productive Safety Net Programme; UNDRO: United Nations Disaster Relief Office; UNISDR: United Nations International; UN OCHA: United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs; USAID: United States Agency for International Development; WFP: World Food Programme     

Operational value of anthropometric surveillance in famine early warning and relief: wollo region, ethiopia, 1987-88

In this article I examine the operational implications of the findings reported in 'Entitlements, Coping Mechanisms and Indicators of Access to Food: Wollo Region, Ethiopia, 1987–88' (Kelly, 1992). The usefulness of anthropometric and other indicators for early warning and relief planning in Wollo is assessed by comparing the findings of Save the Children Fund's nutritional surveillance programme with those of the Early Warning and Planning Service of the Ethiopian government's Relief and Rehabilitation Commission. Case studies are used to illustrate the value of anthropometric and other indicators for targeting relief food and monitoring its effects. The costs of monitoring various indicators are then considered, and the cost of the Save the Children Fund programme is compared with that of other programmes. It is argued that in Wollo, anthropometric surveillance is a cost-effective means of improving early warning, planning, targeting and monitoring.     

Development of a Computer Workstation for Famine Early Warning and Food Security

Beginning in 1990, the University of Arizona, Arizona Remote Sensing Center (ARSC) has been involved in a collaborative effort with the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) and the Remote Sensing Center of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations in designing and developing an integrated computer workstation for famine early warning. The goal of the project is to provide food security analysts with a set of computer tools to manage a very large and diverse set of data for predicting the onset of food security emergencies for every country on Earth. The initial stage of the project involved the conceptual definition of system elements and the development of overall system architecture. We are now developing an open, flexible, and portable system designed to significantly assist the work of the analysts. System architecture provides a task-specific and user-friendly graphic user interface (GUI) within a Windows environment that will link image processing, geographic information system (GIS), spreadsheet, text, and graphics software packages into a single operational environment. A relational database management system (RDBMS) is serving as the back-end of the workstation to facilitate data storage and retrieval and as a means to preserve analysis methodologies.     

The Impact of a Reduced and Uncertain Food Supply in Three Besieged Cities of Bosnia-Hercegovina

Nutritional status and household food security were longitudinally monitored in three besieged cities of Bosnia-Hercegovina (Sarajevo, Zenica and Tuzla) during the winter and spring of 1993 to 1994. The objectives were to provide early warning of a deterioration in the food and nutrition situation and identify particularly vulnerable groups so that action could be taken to prevent potential undernutrition and target resources to the most needy. Before the cease-fire, which came into effect at the end of February 1994, trends in various indicators (weight loss, decline of household food stocks, rising food prices, reduction in food aid distribution, sale of possessions) suggested that the situation was deteriorating. Access to food improved as a result of the cease-fire, however, which was reflected in improvements in indicators of food security and weight gain. The impact of, and response to, the food emergency differed between individuals, households and locations; the elderly were found to be more nutritionally vulnerable than children or adults, households with the least access to resources were the most food insecure, while the city of Zenica appeared to be particularly hard hit. The findings show the effects of an uncertain and reduced food supply on a previously well-fed healthy population in an industrialised country. The value and constraints of an Early Warning System set up to monitor trends in an emergency in a European context are discussed.     

大别山区山洪灾害预警模型的建立与应用

根据近年来大别山地区高密度雨量站资料,利用GIS技术形成的更为精细的栅格点坡度和高度数据,得出雨量与山区坡度和高度的具体关系,并由此推算出两个子流域发生山洪灾害的雨量阈值;实时通过数据服务器获取前期逐时雨量资料,形成24 h和6 h雨量,根据雨量关系式求算面雨量,与山洪灾害雨量阈值进行比较,给出是否发生山洪灾害的预警信息;及时发布预警信息,将山洪灾害的预警信息在淮河流域气象中心进行实际应用。     

山东省近600年旱涝霜雹数据库和超长期预报系统研究

干旱、洪涝、霜冻、冰雹是山东省最主要的气象灾害,具有频率高、范围广、灾情重等特征。通过对历史资料的整理、编码和输入,建立了山东省近600年旱涝霜雹数据库、近40年降水数据库和预报因子数据库,并编制了数据管理和分析软件包,在国际著名的SAS统计分析系统基础上,建立了山东省旱涝霜雹超长期预报系统。本文简要论述灾害数据库和预报系统建立的技术方法及系统应用的初步结果。     

Climate forecasts in disaster management: Red Cross flood operations in West Africa, 2008

In 2008, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) used a seasonal forecast for West Africa for the first time to implement an Early Warning, Early Action strategy for enhanced flood preparedness and response. Interviews with disaster managers suggest that this approach improved their capacity and response. Relief supplies reached flood victims within days, as opposed to weeks in previous years, thereby preventing further loss of life, illness, and setbacks to livelihoods, as well as augmenting the efficiency of resource use. This case demonstrates the potential benefits to be realised from the use of medium‐to‐long‐range forecasts in disaster management, especially in the context of potential increases in extreme weather and climate‐related events due to climate variability and change. However, harnessing the full potential of these forecasts will require continued effort and collaboration among disaster managers, climate service providers, and major humanitarian donors.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article:
Early Warning and Conflict Resolution, edited by Kumar Rupesinghe and Michiko Kuroda.
Internal Conflict and Governance, edited by Kumar Rupesinghe.
Development from Within: Survival in Rural Africa , edited by D.R. Fraser Taylor and Fiona Mackenzie.
Natural and Technological Disasters: Causes, Effects and Preventive Measures, edited by Shyamal K. Majumdar, Gregory S. Forbes, E. Willard Miller and Robert F. Schmalz.
The Ecology of Health and Disease in Ethiopia, edited by Helmut Kloos and Zein Ahmed Zein.     

Book Reviews

von Kotze, Astrid; Holloway, Alisa Reducing Risk: Participatory Learning Activities for Disaster Mitigation in Southern Africa Welford, Richard Environmental Strategy and Sustainable Development — The Corporate Challenge for the 21st Century Richards, Paul Fighting for the Rain Forest: War, Youth and Resources in Sierra Leone Blaikie, Piers; Cannon, Terry; Davis, Ian; Wisner, Ben At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability and Disasters Buchanan-Smith, M.; Davies, S. Famine Early Warning and Response — The Missing Link     

Indigenous responses to drought in sub-Saharan Africa*

Drought is a frequent occurrence in contemporary sub-Saharan Africa, and the existence of periodic drought can be documented over hundreds of years. As a consequence of the routine rainfall shortages that affect them, agricultural and pastoral societies have developed a number of social institutions and mechanisms for bridging temporary food production shortfalls caused by drought. Drawing on the literature and field data from southeastern Kenya, this paper discusses a number of regular indigenous responses to short-term drought in sub-Saharan Africa. Changes in these patterns in the present day are also discussed. It is concluded that market-based responses are now the most important strategies, but that traditional institutions remain significant and contribute to the viability of drought-affected societies.     

遥感旱灾模型综合分析

本文在野外实验的基础上，对遥感旱灾模型进行综合分析和评价。运用四年的实地观测数据，校正了旱灾模型中的待定系数，使其能用于ＮＯＡＡ气象卫星对旱情的监测。对复杂的蒸散模型简化的可行性进行了尝试性研究。     

中国东部干旱特征及其对策

本文阐述了帕默尔干旱指标的原理、优点及其计算方法。文中用济南和郑州两站的资料对帕默尔干旱指标进行了修正,建立了适合我国东部地区的干旱指标,并计算了我国东部地区150个站(1951.1～1980.12)的干旱指数值,分析了我国东部地区的干旱特征。根据其干旱普遍存在、持续期长和强度大的特点,提出了相应的干旱对策。     

陕西旱灾特征

利用1949～1995近47a翔实的灾情资料,就陕西干旱灾害的时空分布规律及其特征进行了分析,并指出旱灾成因．     

Survivor needs or logistical convenience? Factors shaping decisions to deliver relief to earthquake‐affected communities,Pakistan 2005–06

In Bureaucratizing the Good Samaritan , Waters (2001) argues that bureaucratic rationality distracts humanitarian agencies from the needs of the people they are supposed to assist, in favour of other values that their institutional frameworks dictate. We test his claim by investigating the response to the Pakistan 2005 earthquake. One of us (Dittemore) worked with the United Nations Joint Logistics Centre in the theatre, managing a relief cargo shipment database. The response, known as 'Operation Winter Race', was hampered by extreme logistical challenges, but ultimately succeeded in averting a second disaster resulting from cold and starvation. We use statistical models to probe whether survivor needs significantly guided decisions to deliver relief to affected communities. Needs assessments remained incomplete and incoherent. We measure needs through proxy indicators and integrate them, on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform, with logistics and relief delivery data. We find that, despite strong logistics effects, needs orientations were significant. However, the strength of decision factors varies between commodity types (food versus clothing and shelter versus reconstruction materials) as well as over the different phases of the response. This study confirms Thomas's observation that logistics databases are rich 'repositories of data that can be analyzed to provide post-event learning' (Thomas, 2003, p. 4). This article is an invitation for others to engage in creative humanitarian data management.     

旱情评定与灾情指标之探讨

旱灾统计的标准不一致,以及灾情数据中存在人的主观意识,降低了灾情数据的可信度。为了能够较科学地评估和检验农业干旱,本文提出了水平衡干旱模拟模型。该方法指标评定旱级时综合考虑气候-土壤-植物体系和各时段旱象对整个作物旱情的影响程度。通过实际应用其计算结果符合各地情况。     

陕西省关中,陕南地区初夏干旱特点及预测研究

应用1958～1995年38a6月份陕西省关中、陕南地区24站的降水资料，研究了关中、陕南6月份的降水特点；选取其中12站作为资料站，计算出关中、陕南6月份的降水指数f,研究了关中、陕南初夏（6月份）的干旱特点；就初夏干旱发生的高空500hPa环流形势与历年平均状况进行了对比分析，并对初夏干旱作了预测。     

Entitlements, coping mechanisms and indicators of access to food: wollo region, ethiopia, 1987-88

Vulnerability to famine and traditional responses to food insecurity in Wollo Region, Ethiopia are described. The timeliness of anthropometric and socio-economic indicators of access to food is then assessed, using data collected in Wollo by Save the Children Fund during 1987–88, a period of drought and subsequent food insecurity. The movements of different indicators are then examined for evidence of correspondence at sub-district level. The author concludes that although anthropometric status does not respond as early as crop yield or grain price, a deterioration in anthropometric status is detectable at a stage when livestock and migration indicators show little or no change and mortality rate remains unaffected. At sub-district level, changes in different indicators are not well-correlated.     

Assessing community vulnerability to floods and hurricanes along the Gulf Coast of the United States

Hurricanes and flooding have affected millions of people and generated massive economic losses over the past several decades. Geographic information system (GIS) methods are employed in this paper to analyse coastal communities' vulnerability to these two hazards along the Gulf Coast of the United States. Specifically, two types of quantitative indicators are developed: (i) exposure to hurricanes and flooding, based on information from multiple sources; and a social vulnerability index, constructed using census data. These indices are combined to depict the spatial patterns of overall community vulnerability to hurricanes and flooding along the US Gulf Coast. The results of this study can potentially inform disaster management agencies, county governments, and municipalities in areas at heightened risk. Furthermore, the demonstration of the geographic distribution of community vulnerability can assist decision-makers in prioritising to-do items and designing policies and plans for the more effective allocation of resources. The paper ends by discussing the study's limitations and its practical implications.     

Famine early warning systems and the use of socio-economic data

Famine early warning systems using socio-economic data suffer from several problems. One is that they cannot, and do not attempt to, distinguish between qualitatively different kinds of famine. The second is that they cannot predict these either accurately or early enough. This is because all the socio-economic indicators produce both false positives and false negatives, the indicators themselves are "late" and because interpretation of the data is complex and time-consuming. The third problem is that within the context of a famine that is occurring, these indicators cannot predict excess mortality. The argument is illustrated with examples from the 1984–5 famine in Darfur, Sudan.