Decision framework for evaluating the macroeconomic risks and policy impacts of cyber attacks

Increased reliance on the Internet for critical infrastructure and the global nature of supply chains provides an opportunity for adversaries to leverage dependencies and gain access to vital infrastructure. Traditional approaches to assessing risk in the cyber domain, including estimation of impacts, fall short due to uncertainty in how interconnected systems react to cyber attack. This paper describes a method to represent the pathways of disruption propagation, evaluate the macroeconomic impact of cyber threats and aid in selecting among various cybersecurity policies. Based on state of the art agent-based modeling, multicriteria decision analysis, and macroeconomic modeling tools, this framework provides dynamic macroeconomic, demographic and fiscal insights regarding shocks caused by cyber attacks to the regional economy over time. The interlinkage of these models will provide a robust and adaptive system that allows policy makers to evaluate complex issues such as cybersecurity threats and their impacts on the geopolitical, social, environmental, and macroeconomic landscape.     

Public commitment making as a structural solution in social dilemmas

Research shows that public commitment making helps promote pro-environmental behavior. However, not everyone may be willing to make such commitments. Therefore, it is important to investigate the conditions under which commitment making is likely to occur. We expected dispositional trust and situational expectations to determine the willingness to install a system of public commitments. Two studies are presented which show that group members low in dispositional trust (low trusters) are likely to choose for a public commitment system when their situational expectations concerning other group members' contributions are high, while those high in dispositional trust (high trusters) are likely to choose for a public commitment system when their situational expectations concerning other group members' contributions are low. It appears that for both low and high trusters the choice for a system of public commitments is instigated by a motivation to further the collective outcomes.     

Performance and dilemmas of urban containment strategies in the transformation context of Beijing

The implementation of urban containment policies is increasingly attracting attention in environment management. Rapid urban growth and the coexistence of decentralisation and marketisation challenge containment strategies that are implemented to control urban sprawl. This challenge is likely to be greater in a transformation country than in developed countries. This paper evaluates the performance of containment strategies in Beijing. The analysis shows that, to a large extent, containment strategies perform well; however, the decreased compactness of the fringes of the inter-suburban areas, caused by dispersed and illegal development, suggest that municipal containment strategies are being challenged by new trends towards local autonomy. Two similar dilemmas to those faced by developed countries are confronting those involved in the implementation of containment strategies in the current transformation process in Beijing: first, the municipal environmental goal might not be achieved by all local jurisdictions when local economic motivations are involved; and second, macro-scale containment policies are unlikely to control an urban sprawl fuelled by the growing power of market forces.     

The environment and global security

The end of the Cold War heralded a vision of a New World Order; a new era of global security and co-operation. There was a belief that the system of collective security established in San Francisco in 1945 (at the founding of the United Nations) was finally beginning to work as conceived. As the strategic justification for a nuclear combat seemed to have evaporated, the new expectation was that international relations should now be conducted in the interest of global security.However, unfolding developments indicate that the end of the Cold War may not necessarily ensure global security. As the old order and the threat of a global nuclear holocaust collapsed, a new order has emerged with new perils, principal among these are the destruction and degradation of the environment. Since the 1970s, ecological movements and scientists have become increasingly aware that mankind is approaching limits to the burdens which it can load upon nature's capacity. This realisation led to the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, which took place in Stockholm in June 1972, as the first major international effort to address the threat.The Earth's Summit of June 1992, and the resultant Rio Declaration emerged as the strongest attempts yet by the international community to address the issue of global environmental protection and safety, by demanding a spirit of global partnership in conserving, protecting, and restoring the health and integrity of the Earth's ecosystem. This was in realisation of the fact that the Earth is galloping towards a crisis of uncontrollable dimension, and therefore, needs to change course.     

Achieving energy security in South Asia

South Asia is experiencing unprecedented energy scarcity due to population growth, inadequate infrastructure, lack of investment, and other factors. However, energy security is one of the basic requirements of economic growth, and as its extension, for social harmony. This article identifies challenges to energy security in South Asia and proposes solutions on tackling the challenges.     

Valuing risk reductions: Testing for range biases in payment card and random card sorting methods

Ongoing concerns with regard to the appropriate approach to elicitation of willingness-to-pay responses in contingent valuation studies have led to the development of a number of alternative techniques. One of the most recent, and on the surface, most promising of these is the random card sorting approach (RCS) which has been used for policy purposes to value risk reductions. This paper provides the first formal test of this procedure, comparing it against the widely used payment card (PC) format from which it is developed and whose recognised problems, such as range bias, it claims to address. However, the findings suggest that the RCS procedure is no less vulnerable to range bias than the PC method for eliciting both monetary values of health risk reductions and non-monetary estimates of death rates. Conclusions for future research initiatives are drawn.     

Dynamic real-time risk analytics of uncontrollable states in complex internet of things systems: cyber risk at the edge

The Internet of Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state of the art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.

     

Mineral reserves: Projected lifetimes and security of supply

This article analyses the lifetimes of reserves of three dozen important minerals. Despite the high rate of their extraction in the past 30 years, the recorded reserves of these non-renewable materials were higher in 1981 than in 1950 and they seem to meet foreseeable demand for a long time to come, as indicated by the estimated static lifetime for each of the minerals covered. The dynamic nature of ‘reserves’ is emphasized: further exploration and scientific and technological advance will add to the present proven reserves, and at a higher price further resources will be ‘upgraded’ into commercially exploitable reserves. Apparent long-term security can be disturbed by natural disasters, political events or other factors, especially in the case of minerals whose reserves and production are highly concentrated in one country. However, any such interruption in the continuity of supply is likely to be short-lived.     

电热器具安全性可靠性探讨

本文首先介绍了产品安全性和可靠性的关系,通过对电热水壶电路的分析和比较,提出了一些改进意见.希望相关的企业通过上述的分析,从中得到借鉴,进而提高类似产品的安全性和可靠性.     

Biofuel development, food security and the use of marginal land in China

With concerns of energy shortages, China, like the United States, European Union, and other countries, is promoting the development of biofuels. However, China also faces high future demand for food and feed, and so its bioenergy program must try to strike a balance between food and fuel. The goals of this paper are to provide an overview of China's current bioethanol program, identify the potential for using marginal lands for feedstock production, and measure the likely impacts of China's bioethanol development on the nation's future food self-sufficiency. Our results indicate that the potential to use marginal land for bioethanol feedstock production is limited. Applying a modeling approach based on highly disaggregated data by region, our analysis shows that the target of 10 million t of bioethanol by 2020 seems to be a prudent target, causing no major disturbances in China's food security. But the expansion of bioethanol may increase environmental pressures due to the higher levels of fertilizer use. This study shows also that if China were able to cultivate 45% of its required bioethanol feedstock on new marginal land, it would further limit negative effects of the bioethanol program on the domestic and international economy, but at the expense of having to apply another 750 thousand t of fertilizer.     

Towards water security: political determination and human adaptation crucial

Although high-level attention has been drawn to the escalating world water problems, few changes are noticeable in terms of actual management of the water resource. Politicians continue to be misled by the apparent simplicity of water. The environment-oriented community tends to focus only on problems arising from man-induced side-effects, and most people tend to take water for granted. The double challenge of providing adequate water supplies and meeting increasing food requirements of expanding populations, in addition to already existing water management problems, requires special attention. In addition, the intensifying pollution of water systems will have to be dealt with. Considerable human adaptation to physical realities as well as ingenious action are needed.
There is a brief discussion of the risk of hydrocide, a condition of serious water-quality degradation where available water is no longer sufficient, or cannot be used for the purposes needed. However, the main focus of the paper is on water quantity issues, highlighting the confusion arising from different methods of assessing water scarcity. Levels of regional water scarcity predicaments are discussed in terms of distinct regional clusters. Attention is drawn to the limitations of dry climate regions to achieve food self sufficiency, and the emerging need in many areas to import food; related trade and price aspects are also discussed. A distinction is made between efficiency of use and efficiency of allocation.
The need for a global ethic regarding upstream–downstream water-sharing is stressed, especially in cases of consumptive (evaporative) use of water for cultivating crops, which may deplete river flows available to downstream users. In conclusion, four key concerns are highlighted that call for global consensus.     

Perceptions of the security and attractiveness of urban parking lots

This study concerns design features of urban parking lots which can increase the perception of such areas as both safe and attractive. College students evaluated the attractiveness and perceived security associated with 180 scenes of parking lots adjacent to commercial and multi-family residential structures in Atlanta and Athens, Georgia, U.S.A. High intergroup correlations (r > 0·90) indicated the reliability of evaluations of both perceived features. Regressions of physical features on perceived security ratings and attractiveness ratings yielded highly predictive models (R² = 0·76 and 0·80, respectively). For both sets of ratings a Maintenance and Design factor accounted for the most variance. Although attractiveness ratings were higher as the total amount of vegetation increased in a scene, security was in general rated higher only when vegetation was well maintained and appeared to be installed as part of a landscape design. Attractiveness was generally higher for multi-family residential scenes than for commercial scenes. Perceived security was higher for frontal views of structures, especially when entrances were proximate to the viewer. Research implications are discussed in terms of the impact of natural features in urban areas for increasing attractiveness and reducing fear of crime.     

不境安全预警和应急监测体系建设探讨

本文介绍了环境应急监测的性质和特点,阐述了环境安全预警和应急监测网络体系的建设情况,从制度、人员、仪器装备建设方面来加强环境安全预警和应急监测能力建设,并做好应急监测的日常准备工作,提高应急监测能力,构建良好的应急监测体系。     

Toward energy and livelihoods security in Africa: Smallholder production and processing of bioenergy as a strategy

The past few years have seen a phenomenal rise in the production and consumption of biofuels and biodiesel at the global level. This development is of special significance to Africa, where about 550 million people (75% of the total population in Sub‐Saharan Africa) depend on traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, cow dung, etc.) and lack access to electricity or any kind of modern energy service. Derived from plants and agricultural crops, biofuels and biodiesel represent modern forms of bioenergy and more efficient use of biomass energy. Beyond efficiency, modern bioenergy offers tremendous opportunities to meet growing household energy demands, increase income, reduce poverty, and mitigate environmental degradation. In the African setting, energy and livelihoods security are indeed inseparable. This paper argues economic, social, and environmental benefits of modern bioenergy can be realized through a strategy that centres on smallholder production and processing schemes and pursuit of a livelihood approach to energy development. Such a scheme opens up new domestic markets, generates new cash incomes, improves social wellbeing, enhances new technology adoption, and lays the ground for rural economic transformation and sustainable land use. The paper concludes by underlining the vital importance of considering sound property rights and strategic planning of sustainable development as tools for sustainable energy and livelihoods security.     

The plight of pollination and the interface of neurobiology, ecology and food security

Insect neurobiology and cognition are most fully understood through studies on European honeybees (Apis mellifera ssp.; Hymenoptera: Apidae). Karl von Frisch (1886?C1982) became a Nobel Laureate in Medicine and Physiology (1973) for his pioneering research on honeybee behaviour, learning and social communication (von Frisch Tanzsprache und Orientierung der Bienen. Springer, Berlin,1965, The dance language and orientation of bees. Harvard University Press, Cambridge,1967). His enduring work stimulated numerous prominent scientists, including Martin Lindauer (1918?C2008) who was mentor to R. M., and whose nomination provided P. K. with a DAAD fellowship to work with his team in the Institut für Neurobiologie of the Freie Universit?t Berlin in 1994. Honeybees are the most important managed pollinators of crop plants and responsible for estimated billions of dollars worth of food production annually. Although these insects make excellent subjects for basic research, understanding their biology often has immediate practical implications. Honeybees, and beekeeping, around the world appear to be facing serious problems to such a grave extent that the popular media are full of stories about their demise and the potential consequences to human food security. How honeybees perceive their world, especially the flowers they pollinate, and how they react to stresses in their environments (management, pathogens, parasites, pesticides, pollutants and landscape changes) are closely interlinked. Therefore, the relationships between basic and applied research become of immediate importance and may lead to a better handling of the ecological conditions under which honeybees perform their economically important contribution to the balance of nature.     

Chinese resource security policies and the restructuring of the Asia-Pacific iron ore market

This paper reviews the restructuring of the Asia-Pacific iron ore market in the wake of the rise of the Chinese steel industry. Prior to the 2000s, this market was characterised by two key features—high firm-level concentration on both the producer and consumer sides, and price determination through annually negotiated benchmark pricing between Australian mining and Japanese steel firms. However, owing to rapid growth in the Chinese steel industry and its emergence as the region's principal iron ore consumer, the Asia-Pacific iron ore market has been dramatically restructured during the last decade. This process has been accelerated since 2005 by Chinese governmental resource security policies, which have sought to address current record high iron ore prices through the use of foreign investment to sponsor new market entrants and the formation of an import cartel amongst the Chinese steel firms. This paper evaluates how these policies have driven restructuring in the Asia-Pacific iron ore market, through an analysis of the growth of China's steel industry, Chinese resource security policies aimed at lowering iron ore import costs, and their effects upon the regional market's ownership structure and price determination mechanisms. It argues that while Chinese investment and cartelisation policies have catalysed significant changes to the ownership and pricing structures of the Asia-Pacific iron ore market, they have carried only mixed benefits for the Chinese steel industry's resource security.