Assessing ecological risk on a regional scale

Society needs a quantitative and systematic way to estimate and compare the impacts of environmental problems that affect large geographic areas. This paper presents an approach for regional risk assessment that combines regional assessment methods and landscape ecology theory with an existing framework for ecological risk assessment. Risk assessment evaluates the effects of an environmental change on a valued natural resource and interprets the significance of those effects in light of the uncertainties identified in each component of the assessment process. Unique and important issues for regional risk assessment are emphasized; these include the definition of the disturbance scenario, the assessment boundary definition, and the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape. Although the research described in this article has been funded wholly or in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) through Interagency Agreement Number DW89932112-01-2 to the U.S. Department of Energy, it has not been subjected to EPA review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of EPA and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

Environmental Integrated Assessment via Monte Carlo Simulation with a Case Study of the Mid-Atlantic Region,USA

Environmental integrated assessments are often carried out via the aggregation of a set of environmental indicators. Aggregated indices derived from the same data set can differ substantially depending upon how the indicators are weighted and aggregated, which is often a subjective matter. This article presents a method of generating aggregated environmental indices in an objective manner via Monte Carlo simulation. Rankings derived from the aggregated indices within and between three Monte Carlo simulations were used to evaluate the overall environmental condition of the study area. Other insights, such as the distribution of good or bad values of indicators at a watershed and/or a subregion, were observed in the study.     

Nonparametric Monte Carlo Simulation for Flood Frequency Curve Derivation: An Application to a Korean Watershed1

Abstract: A mix of causative mechanisms may be responsible for flood at a site. Floods may be caused because of extreme rainfall or rain on other rainfall events. The statistical attributes of these events differ according to the watershed characteristics and the causes. Traditional methods of flood frequency analysis are only adequate for specific situations. Also, to address the uncertainty of flood frequency estimates for hydraulic structures, a series of probabilistic analyses of rainfall‐runoff and flow routing models, and their associated inputs, are used. This is a complex problem in that the probability distributions of multiple independent and derived random variables need to be estimated to evaluate the probability of floods. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to develop a flood frequency curve derivation method driven by multiple random variables and to develop a tool that can consider the uncertainties of design floods. This study focuses on developing a flood frequency curve based on nonparametric statistical methods for the estimation of probabilities of rare floods that are more appropriate in Korea. To derive the frequency curve, rainfall generation using the nonparametric kernel density estimation approach is proposed. Many flood events are simulated by nonparametric Monte Carlo simulations coupled with the center Latin hypercube sampling method to estimate the associated uncertainty. This study applies the methods described to a Korean watershed. The results provide higher physical appropriateness and reasonable estimates of design flood.     

Assessing drought-related ecological risk in the Florida Everglades

In the winter-spring of 2001, South Florida experienced one of the worst droughts in its recorded history. Out of a myriad of ecological concerns identified during this time, the potential for catastrophic peat fire and negative impacts to wading bird reproduction emerged as critical issues. Water managers attempted to strike a balance between the environment and protection of water supplies for agriculture and urban interests. It became evident, however, that a broad-scale, integrated way to portray and prioritise ecological stress was lacking in the Florida Everglades, despite this being considered a necessary tool for addressing issues of environmental protection. In order to provide a framework for evaluating various water management operations using real-time information, we developed GIS-based indices of peat-fire risk and wading bird habitat suitability. These indices, based on real physical, chemical, and biological data, describe two ecological conditions that help define the physical and biological integrity of the Everglades. In addition to providing continuous, updated assessments throughout the drought period, we incorporated predictive models of water levels to evaluate how various water management alternatives might exacerbate or alleviate ecological stress during this time.     

Assessing water use and quality through youth participatory research in a rural Andean watershed

Water availability, use and quality in a rural watershed of the Colombian Andes were investigated through participatory research involving local youth. Research included the quantification of disaggregated water use at the household level; comparison of water use with availability; monitoring water quality of streams, community water intakes and household faucets; and the determination of land use – water quality interactions. Youth were involved in all aspects of the research from design to implementation, dissemination of results and remediation options. Quantification of domestic and on-farm water use, and water availability indicated that water availability was sufficient during the study period, but that only an 8% decrease in dry season supply would result in shortages. Elevated conductivity levels in the headwaters were related to “natural” bank erosion, while downstream high conductivity and coliform levels were associated with discharges from livestock stalls and poorly maintained septic tanks in the stream buffer zone. Through the involvement of youth as co-investigators, the knowledge generated by the research was appropriated at the local level. Community workshops led by local youth promoted water conservation and water quality protection practices based on research, and resulted in broader community participation in water management. The approach involving youth in research stimulated improved management of both land and water resources, and could be applied in small rural watersheds in developed or developing countries.     

Assessing Degradation of Abandoned Farmlands for Conservation of the Monte Desert Biome in Argentina

Land abandonment is a major issue worldwide. In Argentina, the Monte Desert is the most arid rangeland, where the traditional conservation practices are based on successional management of areas excluded to disturbances or abandoned. Some areas subjected to this kind of management may be too degraded, and thus require active restoration. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess whether passive succession-based management is a suitable approach by evaluating the status of land degradation in a protected area after 17–41 years of farming abandonment. Soil traits and plant growth forms were quantified and compared between sites according to time since abandonment and former land use (cultivation and grazing). Two variables were calculated using the CORINE-CEC method, i.e., potential (PSER) and actual (ASER) soil erosion risk. PSER indicates the erosion risk when no vegetation is present, while ASER includes the protective role of vegetation cover. Results showed that land use history had no significant effect on plant growth forms or soil traits (p > 0.05). After more than 25 years since abandonment of farming activities, soil conditions and vegetation cover had improved, thus having a lower ASER. Nevertheless, the present soil physical crusts may have delayed the full development of vegetation, enhancing erosion processes. Overall, this study indicates that succession-based management may not be the best practice in terms of conservation. Therefore, any effort for conservation in the Monte Desert should contemplate the current status of land degradation and potential vegetation recovery.     

A dynamic hydrological Monte Carlo simulation model to inform decision-making at Lake Toolibin,Western Australia

Lake Toolibin, an ephemeral lake in the agricultural zone of Western Australia, is under threat from secondary salinity due to land clearance throughout the catchment. The lake is extensively covered with native vegetation and is a Ramsar listed wetland, being one of the few remaining significant migratory bird habitats in the region. Currently, inflow with salinity greater than 1000 mg/L TDS is diverted from the lake in an effort to protect sensitive lakebed vegetation. However, this conservative threshold compromises the frequency and extent of lake inundation, which is essential for bird breeding. It is speculated that relaxing the threshold to 5000 mg/L may pose negligible additional risk to the condition of lakebed vegetation. To characterise the magnitude of improvement in the provision of bird breeding habitat that might be generated by relaxing the threshold, a dynamic water and salt balance model of the lake was developed and implemented using Monte Carlo simulation. Results from best estimate model inputs indicate that relaxation of the threshold increases the likelihood of satisfying habitat requirements by a factor of 9.7. A second-order Monte Carlo analysis incorporating incertitude generated plausible bounds of [2.6, 37.5] around the best estimate for the relative likelihood of satisfying habitat requirements. Parameter-specific sensitivity analyses suggest the availability of habitat is most sensitive to pan evaporation, lower than expected inflow volume, and higher than expected inflow salt concentration. The characterisation of uncertainty associated with environmental variation and incertitude allows managers to make informed risk-weighted decisions.     

Evaluating the impact of uncertainty and variability on the value chain optimization of a forest biomass power plant using Monte Carlo Simulation

Mathematical programming models have been used to optimize the design and management of forest bioenergy supply chains. A deterministic mathematical model is beneficial for making optimum decisions; however, its applicability to real-world problems may be limited because it does not capture all the complexities, including uncertainties in the parameters, in the supply chain. In this paper, a combination of Monte Carlo Simulation and optimization model is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in biomass quality, availability and cost, and electricity prices on the supply chain of a forest biomass power plant. The optimization model is a deterministic mixed integer non-linear model with monthly time steps over a 1-year planning horizon. Variability in biomass quality, i.e. moisture content (MC) and higher heating value (HHV), based on the historical data of a real case study is studied in detail and fitted probability distributions are used in the model, while for electricity prices different scenarios are considered. The results show that the impact of variability in the MC on profit is higher than that of uncertainty in HHV. It is observed that the annual profit ranges between $13.3 million and $17.9 million in the presence of all possible uncertainties while its average is $15.5 million. Uncertainty in biomass availability and cost and electricity price results in the risks of having annual profit of less than $14 million and low monthly storage levels.     

The study of a method of regional environmental risk assessment

Regional environmental risk assessment can be defined as risk assessment which deals with a spatial scale that contains multiple habitats with multiple sources of many stressors affecting multiple endpoints. The characteristics of the landscape also affect the estimated risk. In this paper, an information diffusion method based on a grid system is proposed to assess regional environmental risk. The risk information on a single environmental risk source can be diffused effectively by using fuzzy set theory. Regional environmental risk values obtained from information diffusion can be clustered on classification criteria and different environmental risk levels can be depicted in a spatial partition map. Huangge Town and Nansha Town located in the Nansha Area of Guangzhou City in China were selected as model cases. The results derived from this information diffusion method will help the local government to optimize the distribution of industrial areas and establish risk prevention measurements and emergency management procedures.     

Contextualising risk within enterprise risk management through the application of systems thinking

New and emerging risks create growing uncertainty and unpredictability within enterprise risk management. While ISO 31000:2009 is a progressive risk management framework, it is limited in its guidance on how to contextualise complex risks. The application of systems thinking to risk management provides the opportunity to better understand complexity by viewing risk and the consequence of change as part of overall system behaviour. System modelling tools enable organisations to better contextualise their risk landscape. These tools assist organisations to identify vulnerabilities between social and ecological variables in the system within they exist. Determining drivers of change leading to system vulnerabilities can assist in understanding threshold limits of the system, thus enabling the organisation to build system resilience and organisational sustainability.     

Assessing landscape dynamics in a protected area

This article describes an approach to assessing spatial and temporal land-use and land-cover changes in and adjacent to protected areas and to the measurement of landscape stability within a protected area. Methods employed include aerial photographic interpretation and GIS technology. Odum's four-compartment ecosystem model provides the conceptual framework for assessing landscape stability. The study area is a selected sample of the Upper San Pedro National Riparian Conservation Area in the high desert grassland of southeastern Arizona. Significant changes were observed in the landscape matrix and riparian ecosystem. However, when these changes were assessed in the context of Odum's model, the change was nonsignificant. Implications of the approach and potential applications in protected area management are discussed.     

The optimal dam site selection using a group decision-making method through fuzzy TOPSIS model

The complex and controversial task of selecting a dam site in a river basin can be successfully achieved using science-informed multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. In this paper, we describe the application of the group fuzzy TOPSIS model for optimal ranking of the case study of Kandoleh dam sites in Kermanshah province, Iran, involving 18 input criteria. In this study, decision-making committee was made up of 20 involved decision makers. The comments of four non-biased, external experts in dam site selection were also used. The triangular fuzzy numbers were used to apply experts’ opinions on the selection criteria. In total, four alternative sites were assessed based on the technical, economic, social and environmental considerations and the data were analyzed using fuzzy TOPSIS MCDM model. Ranking results were compared with multi-criteria decision-making models, including the ELimination and Choice Expressing the REality and simple additive weighting. This logical, open and transparent framework provides a science-informed decision-making approach for complex problems such as optimal dam site selection. Finally, using sensitivity analysis, local studies and group discussions, we demonstrated the multiple benefits of the proposed novel method for a science-informed, open and transparent method for optimal ranking of the dam site candidates.     

Informing environmental health and risk priorities through local outreach and extension

Environment Systems and Decisions - Our society is currently facing an unprecedented number of environmental and societal challenges. Stakeholder and community engagement can help identify priority...     

Assessing farming eco-efficiency: a Data Envelopment Analysis approach

This paper assesses farming eco-efficiency using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) techniques. Eco-efficiency scores at both farm and environmental pressure-specific levels are computed for a sample of Spanish farmers operating in the rain-fed agricultural system of Campos County. The determinants of eco-efficiency are then studied using truncated regression and bootstrapping techniques. We contribute to previous literature in this field of research by including information on slacks in the assessment of the potential environmental pressure reductions in a DEA framework. Our results reveal that farmers are quite eco-inefficient, with very few differences emerging among specific environmental pressures. Moreover, eco-inefficiency is closely related to technical inefficiencies in the management of inputs. Regarding the determinants of eco-efficiency, farmers benefiting from agri-environmental programs as well as those with university education are found to be more eco-efficient. Concerning the policy implications of these results, public expenditure in agricultural extension and farmer training could be of some help to promote integration between farming and the environment. Furthermore, Common Agricultural Policy agri-environmental programs are an effective policy to improve eco-efficiency, although some doubts arise regarding their cost-benefit balance.     

Spatial assessment of the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice on radioactively contaminated land in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia. II. Monte Carlo analysis

A Monte Carlo analysis of two sequential GIS-embedded submodels, which evaluate the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice (SRC) production and energy conversion in areas contaminated by Chernobyl-derived (137)Cs, was performed to allow for variability of environmental conditions that was not contained in the spatial model inputs. The results from this analysis were compared to the results from the deterministic model presented in part I of this paper. It was concluded that, although the variability in the model results due to within-gridcell variability of the model inputs was considerable, the prediction of the areas where SRC and energy conversion is potentially profitable was robust. If the additional variability in the model input that is not contained in the input maps is also taken into account, the SRC production and energy conversion appears to be potentially profitable at more locations for both the small scale and large scale production scenarios than the model predicted using the deterministic model.     

EIA in a risk society

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) was developed and introduced in the 1960s during a time that was dominated by three key societal influences. These were the growth of modern environmental concern, the drive for more rational, scientific and objective environmental decision making and a desire for more public involvement in environmental decision making. The legitimacy of EIA, as a tool to aid decision making, lies in its ability to meet the requirements of all three demands, the chief among these being its ability to be a systematic scientific and rational approach to decision making. Yet today we live in a society that no longer accepts the rationalist model as either possible or desirable. The deference to ‘the expert’ and our trust in science and technology has steadily declined during the period of EIAs development and widespread use. Today, EIA still depends for its legitimacy on its claim to provide a systematic and scientific approach to assessments, while society has moved on. This paper examines this growing divergence and argues that it is time for a major re‐evaluation of the role of EIA in environmental decision making.     

Enhanced recycling through a materials tax

This article attempts to evaluate whether an appropriate consumption-based tax is likely to be successful in reducing demand for certain exhaustible resources, thereby curtailing their rate of depletion and increasing the demand for, and utilization of, secondary materials. The nature of such a tax and anticipated effects (including environmental impact) of its imposition on certain primary materials are considered, concentrating here on one metal, aluminium. The study concludes that a tax based on the exhaustible resources and energy used in the production of a good is likely to create more savings for fossil fuels than for other exhaustible resources.     

Study on CO2 capture using dry potassium-based sorbents through orthogonal test method

The effect of reaction conditions on the carbonation characteristics of K₂CO₃ calcined from KHCO₃ was investigated with a pressurized thermogravimetric apparatus. Results show that the conversion rate decreased as the reaction temperature and pressure increased, and the effect of CO₂ and H₂O concentration is little. The mean reaction rate maintained constant of 3%/min. The maximum reaction rate increased as the temperature and H₂O concentration increased, and the pressure decreased. The reaction temperature and pressure are the key factors, and it is important to control those carefully for this technique. The optimum reaction condition is 60 °C, 18% CO₂, 18% H₂O, and 1 atm. K₂CO₃ calcined from KHCO₃ showed excellent CO₂ capture capability in this condition.     

Assessing the spatial distribution of grassland age in a marginal European landscape

Grassland age is increasingly recognised to be an indicator for present-day biodiversity, e.g. plant species richness, and is also important for other landscape functions. We developed a methodological approach to systematically assess the spatial distribution of grassland age in marginal European landscapes. This approach - applied to the Lahn-Dill Highlands (1270 km(2)), a marginal landscape in Hesse, Germany - comprises three steps: (1) in a two-stage stratification process, we pre-stratified the study area according to recent land-cover patterns and their changes between 1955 and 1995 (stratification I) and classified grassland types by combining data on soil moisture, base-richness, and elevation (stratification II). From 50 grassland types, we randomly selected 1000 representative grassland patches. (2) We determined the age of these patches by means of aerial photograph interpretation of a chronosequence dating back to 1953 and classified each patch with respect to the age classes young (<18 years), mid-aged (18-47 years), and old (>47 years). (3) Based on this information, we calculated grassland type-specific probabilities for grassland patches to belong to the respective age classes. These probabilities were projected to districts by direct extrapolation. An exemplary validation of extrapolation results for two test areas was performed. The results revealed that 49% of the investigated patches were old grassland. The remaining patches were mid-aged (36%) or young grassland (15%). The extrapolation results indicated accordingly a predominance of old grassland at the district scale. Occurrences of mid-aged grassland were concentrated in districts with a pronounced land-cover change, whereas young grassland is apparently evenly distributed across the study area. Validation results suggest that our approach is suitable for a realistic estimation of grassland age in marginal European landscapes. The method may be applied in landscape models of various disciplines that rely on large-scale information on grassland age.     

Assessing the Effectiveness of a Constructed Arctic Stream Using Multiple Biological Attributes

Objective assessment of habitat compensation is a central yet challenging issue for restoration ecologists. In 1997, a 3.4-km stream channel, designed to divert water around an open pit diamond mine, was excavated in the Barrenlands region of the Canadian Arctic to create productive stream habitat. We evaluated the initial success of this compensation program by comparing multiple biological attributes of the constructed stream during its first three years to those of natural reference streams in the area. The riparian zone of the constructed stream was largely devoid of vegetation throughout the period, in contrast to the densely vegetated zones of reference streams. The constructed stream also contained lower amounts of woody debris, coarse particulate organic matter (CPOM), and epilithon; had lower coverage by macrophytes and bryophytes; and processed leaf litter at a lower rate than reference streams. Species richness and densities of macroinvertebrates were consistently lower in the constructed stream compared to natural streams. This contributed to differences in macroinvertebrate assemblage structure throughout the period, although assemblages showed some convergence by year 3. The effectiveness of the constructed stream to emulate natural streams varied somewhat depending on the biological attribute being evaluated. Assessments based on individual attributes showed that minimal to moderate levels of similarity between the constructed stream and natural streams were achieved. A collective assessment of all biological and ecosystem attributes suggested that the constructed stream was not a good surrogate for natural streams during these first years. Additional time would be required before many characteristics of the constructed stream would resemble those of reference streams. Because initial efforts to improve fish habitat in the constructed stream focused on physical structures (e.g., weirs, vanes, rock, groins), ecological factors limiting fish growth were not considered and likely constrained success. We suggest that a greater focus on organic characteristics and vegetation within the stream and its riparian zone could have accelerated compensation. The addition of woody debris and CPOM, combined with planting of shrubs and herbs along the stream, should provide a source of allochthonous matter for the biotic community while large cobble and boulders should improve the physical stability of stream system, protecting its organic components.