Constructing domestic retrofit as a new urban infrastructure: experimentation,equitability and contested priorities

ABSTRACT

British cities and residential suburbs were originally developed under a modernist growth logic: separating home from work, with little concern for energy use. But recent political and social priorities such as climate change and energy security have created an imperative to reduce domestic energy use, with many existing dwellings rendered “obsolete” on account of their poor energy efficiency. This precipitated a need to develop domestic retrofit – the modification of building fabrics and systems to improve their energy efficiency – as an urban infrastructure. The UK Government responded in 2011 with policies such as the “Green Deal”, through which coalitions of actors in cities including local authorities, voluntary sector organisations and private businesses were encouraged to experiment with place-based retrofit. This paper examines the challenges and effects of developing a domestic retrofit infrastructure in a North London borough under particularly challenging policy conditions. We develop a hybrid framework for understanding the process and product of this place-based experimentation and through this we ask two questions: 1. How did both local and national conditions enable and limit the development of this infrastructure? 2. Was the emerging urban infrastructure functional and equitable? In Haringey’s case, a strong local political agenda positioned retrofit as a development opportunity and vehicle for reducing inequality, but national priorities around market-making and technological fixes dominated emerging responses. Whilst Haringey’s efforts in a difficult policy context did result in retrofits and improvements to around a thousand properties, the emerging infrastructure of retrofit services was incomplete, inequitable and temporary.     

Resilience metrics for cyber systems

As federal agencies and businesses rely more on cyber infrastructure, they are increasingly vulnerable to cyber attacks that can cause damages disproportionate to the sophistication and cost to launch the attack. In response, regulatory authorities call for focusing attention on enhancing infrastructure resilience. For example, in the USA, President Obama issued an Executive Order and policy directives focusing on improving the resilience and security of cyber infrastructure to a wide range of cyber threats. Despite the national and international importance, resilience metrics to inform management decisions are still in the early stages of development. We apply the resilience matrix framework developed by Linkov et al. (Environ Sci Technol 47:10108–10110, 2013) to develop and organize effective resilience metrics for cyber systems. These metrics link national policy goals to specific system measures, such that resource allocation decisions can be translated into actionable interventions and investments. In this paper, a number of metrics have been identified and assessed using quantitative and qualitative measures found in the literature. We have proposed a generic approach and could integrate actual data, technical judgment, and literature-based measures to assess system resilience across physical, information, cognitive, and social domains.     

Decision framework for evaluating the macroeconomic risks and policy impacts of cyber attacks

Increased reliance on the Internet for critical infrastructure and the global nature of supply chains provides an opportunity for adversaries to leverage dependencies and gain access to vital infrastructure. Traditional approaches to assessing risk in the cyber domain, including estimation of impacts, fall short due to uncertainty in how interconnected systems react to cyber attack. This paper describes a method to represent the pathways of disruption propagation, evaluate the macroeconomic impact of cyber threats and aid in selecting among various cybersecurity policies. Based on state of the art agent-based modeling, multicriteria decision analysis, and macroeconomic modeling tools, this framework provides dynamic macroeconomic, demographic and fiscal insights regarding shocks caused by cyber attacks to the regional economy over time. The interlinkage of these models will provide a robust and adaptive system that allows policy makers to evaluate complex issues such as cybersecurity threats and their impacts on the geopolitical, social, environmental, and macroeconomic landscape.     

Environmental management problems in India

Environmental problems are becoming serious in India because of the interacting effects of increasing population density, industrialization and urbanization, and poor environmental management practices. Unless stringent regulatory measures are taken, environmental systems will be irreversibly degraded. Lack of political commitment, lack of a comprehensive environmental policy, poor environmental awareness, functional fragmentation of the public administration system, poor mass media concern, and prevalence of poverty are some of the major factors responsible for increasing the severity of the problems. Environmental problems in India are highly complex, and management procedures have to be developed to achieve coordination between various functional departments, and for this, political leaders have to be convinced of the need to initiate environmental protection measures.     

Positive Planning for Wind-Turbines in an Urban Context

An international concern with climate change has prompted a political commitment to the use of renewable energies. Yet, the operationalization and management of this political objective may be frustrated at the local level, where, it is suggested, an implementation impasse exists. This paper reports on a case study that examines the planning issues around the harvesting of wind at an urban brownfield site in Scotland. The paper discusses the nature of the state-market-civil relations involved in the development management of private wind-energy infrastructure, and the potential for a positive mediating role for the planning system.     

INTEGRATING A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM,A SCIENTIFIC VISUALIZATION SYSTEM,AND A PRECIPITATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Investigating natural, potential, and human-induced impacts on hydrologic systems commonly requires complex modeling with overlapping data requirements, plus massive amounts of one- to four-dimensional data at multiple scales and formats. Given the complexity of most hydrologic studies, the requisite software infrastructure must incorporate many components including simulation modeling and spatial analysis with a flexible, intuitive display. Integrating geographic information systems (GIS) and scientific visualization systems (SVS) provides such an infrastructure. This paper describes an integrated system consisting of an orographic precipitation model, a GIS, and an SVS. The results of this study provide a basis for improving the understanding of hydro-climatic processes in mountainous regions. An additional benefit of the integrated system, the value of which is often underestimated, is the improved ability to communicate model results, leading to a broader understanding of the model assumptions, sensitivities, and conclusions at a management level.     

Positive Planning for Wind-Turbines in an Urban Context

Abstract

An international concern with climate change has prompted a political commitment to the use of renewable energies. Yet, the operationalization and management of this political objective may be frustrated at the local level, where, it is suggested, an implementation impasse exists. This paper reports on a case study that examines the planning issues around the harvesting of wind at an urban brownfield site in Scotland. The paper discusses the nature of the state–market–civil relations involved in the development management of private wind-energy infrastructure, and the potential for a positive mediating role for the planning system.     

Trade-off analysis in the Northern Andes to study the dynamics in agricultural land use

In this paper we hypothesize that land use change can be induced by non-linearities and thresholds in production systems that impact farmers' decision making. Tradeoffs between environmental and economic indicators is a useful way to represent dynamic properties of agricultural systems. The Tradeoff Analysis (TOA) System is software designed to implement the integrated analysis of tradeoffs in agricultural systems. The TOA methodology is based on spatially explicit econometric simulation models linked to spatially referenced bio-physical simulation models to simulate land use and input decisions. The methodology has been applied for the potato-pasture production system in the Ecuadorian Andes. The land use change literature often describes non-linearity in land use change as a result of sudden changes in the political (e.g. new agricultural policies) or environmental setting (e.g. earthquakes). However, less attention has been paid to the non-linearities in production systems and their consequences for land use change. In this paper, we use the TOA system to study agricultural land use dynamics and to find the underlying processes for non-linearities. Results show that the sources of non-linearities are in the properties of bio-physical processes and in the decision making-process of farmers.     

Trends in cyberspace: can governments keep up?

Whether carried out by individuals or states, cyberattacks are both growing in number and becoming more sophisticated. Since the attack on Estonian cyber infrastructure in 2007, many other examples of massive attacks have been reported. The use of spyware and malware—such as with Stuxnet, DuQu or Flames—to disrupt critical infrastructure has made headlines, questioning the ability of governments and private actors to respond to cyber threats. A broad array of potential threats poses a substantial challenge to existing governance structures, which are often behind the curve in comparison with the dynamically evolving cyberspace. Using existing literature and recent foresight studies, the article analyses the trends in the governance of cyberspace and their implications for governments and global regulatory regimes.     

The climate's long-term impact on New Zealand infrastructure (CLINZI) project - a case study of Hamilton City, New Zealand

Infrastructure systems and services (ISS) are vulnerable to changes in climate. This paper reports on a study of the impact of gradual climate changes on ISS in Hamilton City, New Zealand. This study is also the first of its kind to be applied to New Zealand ISS. In the future, the CLINZI project will extend to other areas of New Zealand. Using historical climate data and four climate change scenarios, we modelled the impact of climate change on aspects of water supply and quality, transport, energy demand, public health and air quality. Our analysis reveals that many of Hamilton City's infrastructure systems demonstrated greater responsiveness to population changes than to gradual climate change.     

Dynamic real-time risk analytics of uncontrollable states in complex internet of things systems: cyber risk at the edge

The Internet of Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state of the art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.

     

Engineering meets institutions: an interdisciplinary approach to the management of resilience

Resilience management stretches across the decoupled domains of community, corporate, and public governance. As a result, fostering resilience needs a governance structure that supports collective actions and integrates fragmented fields with different institutional frameworks. In this study, we carry out a review of three different perspectives on resilience -engineering, social, and organizational- in order to explore resilience management in the context of governance of infrastructure systems. We discuss the common practices to address resilience of engineering systems, the need and current trend for integration of institutions into these practices through formal (e.g., policies and regulations) as well as informal mechanisms (e.g., trust, norms, and shared cognitive structures). To illustrate our theorizing, we provide three illustrative case studies. The cases highlight the barriers and enablers across the three perspectives and highlight the inter-organizational context of management of resilience. We uncovered organizational dynamics such as the necessity of establishing critical functionality through organizational capacity for stakeholder engagement, the need for diverse organizations to address institutional complexity in management of resilience, and the importance of decoupling in aligning the outcomes of resilience management practices with policies. We suggest an agenda for future research on managing practices associated with management of resilience.     

Environmental and economic analysis of management systems for biodegradable waste

The management system for solid and liquid organic waste affects the environment and surrounding technical systems in several ways. In order to decrease the environmental impact and resource use, biological waste treatment and alternative solutions for sewage treatment are often advocated. These alternatives include increased agricultural use of waste residuals. To analyse whether such proposed systems indicate improvements for the environment and its sustainability, systems analysis is a useful method. The changes in environmental impact and resource use is not only a result of changes in waste treatment methods, but also largely a result of changes in surrounding systems (energy and agriculture) caused by changes in waste management practices. In order to perform a systems analysis, a substance-flow simulation model, the organic waste research model (ORWARE), has been used. The results are evaluated by using methodology from life cycle assessment (LCA). An economic analysis was also performed on three of the studied scenarios. The management system for solid organic waste and sewage in the municipality of Uppsala, Sweden, was studied. Three scenarios for different treatments of solid waste were analysed: incineration with heat recovery, composting, and anaerobic digestion. These three scenarios included conventional sewage treatment. A fourth scenario reviewed was anaerobic digestion of solid waste, using urine-separating toilets and separate handling of the urine fraction. The results are only valid for the case study and under the assumptions made. In this case study anaerobic digestion result in the lowest environmental impact of all the solid waste management systems, but is costly. Economically, incineration with heat recovery is the cheapest way to treat solid waste. Composting gives environmental advantages compared to incineration methods, without significantly increased costs. Urine separation, which may be implemented together with any solid waste treatment, has great advantages, particularly in its low impact on the environment. However, there is a large increase in acidification.     

Conflict on the Coast: Using Geographic Information Systems to Map Potential Environmental Disputes in Matagorda Bay,Texas

The sustainable management of coastal natural resources inevitably involves identifying stakeholder conflicts and developing planning processes that prevent these conflicts from becoming intractable disputes. This study links environmental conflict to specific areas within a large ecological system. Specifically, we use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to map potentially competing stakeholder values associated with establishing protected areas in Matagorda Bay, Texas. By overlaying multiple values associated with a range of stakeholders across space, we are able to identify hotspots of potential conflict as well as areas of opportunity for maximizing joint gains. Mapping stakeholder conflict is an approach to proactively locate potential controversy in response to a specific environmental management proposal and guide decision makers in crafting planning processes that mitigate the possibility of intractable disputes and facilitate the implementation of sustainable coastal policies. Results indicate that under different management scenarios, protected area proposals will generate more conflict in specific areas. Most notably, regulated uses would produce the greatest degree of conflict on or near shore, particularly at the mouth of the Colorado River. Additionally, of all the management scenarios evaluated, the prohibition of coastal structural development would generate the overall highest level of conflict within the Bay. Based on the results, we discuss the policy implications for environmental managers and provide guidance for future research on location-based conflict management within the coastal margin.     

A transition in the Dutch wastewater system? The struggle between discourses and with lock-ins

ABSTRACT

Recently, calls have increased for a paradigm shift or transition towards resource recovery and a circular economy in the Dutch wastewater system. However, we have observed diverging interpretations on the nature of the transition. This reflects the political environment of sustainability transitions: political struggle emerges over the definition of problems, futures and strategies to be used. In order to help clarify the emerging debate and identify political choices, we conducted a discourse analysis. We identified three discourses that reveal some of the political choices to be made. One discourse is becoming dominant and focusses on optimising the large-scale infrastructure, market development and legislative changes. The discourse draws on the existing infrastructure and current political-economic institutions, which gives it an advantage in becoming dominant. Our findings also suggest that this discourse shapes a transition pathway that is characterised by lock-in effects and, at most, incremental changes instead of a fundamental shift in the established Dutch wastewater system.     

Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play a major role in addressing the challenges of sustainability management, especially the core question of how to scan the future in a structured, integrated, participatory, and policy-relevant manner. In a context of systems engineering, scenario analysis can provide an integrated and timely understanding of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource and infrastructure systems: (1) water resources (2) land-use corridors (3) energy infrastructure, and (4) coastal climate change adaptation. The case studies emphasize a participatory approach, where scenario analysis becomes a means of incorporating diverse stakeholder concerns and experience. This approach to scenario analysis provides insight into both high-performing and robust initiatives/policies, and, perhaps more importantly, influential scenarios. Identifying the scenarios that are most influential to policy making helps to direct further investigative analysis, modeling, and data-collection efforts to support the learning process that is emphasized in adaptive management.     

Cyber international relations as an integrated system

The purpose of this paper is to conceptualize the hitherto separate domains of Cyberspace and International Relations into an integrated socio-technical system that we jointly call the cyber International Relations (Cyber-IR) system and to identify and analyze its emergent properties utilizing the methods common to science and engineering systems adapted here for the social sciences. Our work is an exploration in both theory and methodology. This paper (a) identifies the actors and functions in the core systems, Cyberspace, and IR, (b) disambiguates system boundary, (c) creates a design structure matrix (DSM), a matrix of the interdependencies among functions of actors, (d) analyzes DSM qualitatively to show multiple interdependent and heterogeneous Cyber-IR properties, and (e) analyzes quantitatively the differential importance of core functions as well as the impact of actor attributes on influence in Cyber-IR. This work forms a baseline for further understanding of the nature of the heterogeneous influences of the various actors and the various outcomes that could result from it.     

An innovative sustainability assessment for urban wastewater infrastructure and its application in Chengdu, China

Sustainability assessments are an increasingly common tool for measuring progress towards sustainable development. Despite their popularity, sustainability assessments and the indicators that compose them are said to have had little impact on the policy arena. In this paper we discuss four attributes that we contend will improve the use of sustainability assessments to guide decision making: non-compartmentalization, site specificity, built-in guidance for target setting, and ability to measure active sustainability. We present a novel assessment tool for wastewater treatment infrastructure that illustrates these attributes. The assessment is composed of two-dimensional indicators we call “burden to capacity” ratios, that reveal and quantify the local value of resources embodied in wastewater and treatment byproducts, and the tradeoffs between designing systems for disposal versus reuse. We apply the sustainability assessment framework to an existing treatment plant in Chengdu, China and discuss the results.     

Multiscale approach to the security of hardware supply chains for energy systems

While the cybersecurity field has focused primarily on software and network security, threats and vulnerabilities of hardware device supply chains are growing concerns. Of particular importance and interest in this vein is the way in which semiconductors and other electronic devices are increasingly deployed to support energy distribution, storage, and control at a variety of scales. Future smart grid supply chains must be secured to prevent cyber attacks from affecting energy infrastructure, and the societal and economic functions on which they depend. This perspective paper calls for a multiscale approach to address modeling and decision-making for energy system hardware supply chains. A multiscale approach, as discussed in this paper, can facilitate resilience of supply chains across the life cycles of these systems, through low- and high-tech techniques to monitor and act on the supply chain. This can incorporate both qualitative and quantitative factors to suit the variety of stakeholders, geographic scales, organizational levels, and planning and operational time horizons.     

Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management

There has recently been a return in climate change risk management practice to bottom‐up, robustness‐based planning paradigms introduced 40 years ago. The World Bank's decision tree framework (DTF) for “confronting climate uncertainty” is one incarnation of those paradigms. In order to better represent the state of the art in climate change risk assessment and evaluation techniques, this paper proposes: (1) an update to the DTF, replacing its “climate change stress test” with a multidimensional stress test; and (2) the addition of a Bayesian network framework that represents joint probabilistic behavior of uncertain parameters as sensitivity factors to aid in the weighting of scenarios of concern (the combination of conditions under which a water system fails to meet its performance targets). Using the updated DTF, water system planners and project managers would be better able to understand the relative magnitudes of the varied risks they face, and target investments in adaptation measures to best reduce their vulnerabilities to change. Next steps for the DTF include enhancements in: modeling of extreme event risks; coupling of human‐hydrologic systems; integration of surface water and groundwater systems; the generation of tradeoffs between economic, social, and ecological factors; incorporation of water quality considerations; and interactive data visualization.