Evaluating the prospects for sustainable energy development in a sample of Chinese villages

This paper describes the methods used to evaluate the potential for achieving sustainable energy development in six Chinese villages included in the Sustainable Users' Concepts for China Engaging Scientific Scenarios (SUCCESS) Project by examining energy efficiency potential and local renewable energy prospects. The approaches needed to obtain and analyse information on possible energy efficiency measures and renewable energy resources are summarised. Results are presented in terms of cumulative net savings in primary energy consumption, as an indicator of energy resource depletion, and associated carbon dioxide emissions, as an indicator of global climate change. Options for sustainable energy development are ranked in order of likely implementation and practical actions which could be considered in each village are identified.     

Analysis of the life cycle of non-ferrous minerals

This paper examines the utility of a methodology for forecasting the lifecycle of metals obtained from non-renewable resources which are subject to high rates of growth in consumption. A rate method is used, subject to arbitrarily chosen upper limits of reserves. One general pattern which emerges is that extraction of the resource will tend to rise exponentially in face of falling rate of discovery of new reserves; a degree of ‘overshoot’ occurs. In other words, an economy might continue to be geared to a given non-renewable resource with a degree of optimism about reserve life being maintained until well after it is justifiable and there may be inadequate time for the price mechanism alone to operate to generate development of substitutes, and for the introduction of intensive recycle technology or greater selectivity and economies in the use of the original resource.It is concluded that the methodology used here could be useful to study the possible forms of lifecycles for the base metals.     

Analysis of energy use in a sample of Chinese villages

This paper summarises the methodology and results of work involved in the investigation of energy demand in six Chinese villages included in the SUCCESS Project. The procedures used to collect data associated with local energy demand are explained and the approach to data analysis is explained. Results are provided in terms for delivered energy consumption, as an indicator of energy demand; primary energy consumption, as an indicator of energy resource depletion; and carbon dioxide emissions, as an indicator of global climate change. Similarities and differences between results for this sample of villages are considered. The important causes of differences in results are investigated.     

Time-series analysis of global zinc demand associated with steel

This study aimed to analyze the global-scale substance flow of zinc associated with steel in order to discuss the sustainable use of zinc resources in the future. The relationship between the demand for steel and zinc was characterized in terms of zinc intensity for galvanized steel and the percentage of galvanized steel that accounts for the total steel demand. Zinc consumption for steel was divided into end uses according to the statistics on steel. Zinc demand in the future was forecasted with three scenarios for zinc intensity. Future steel demand was estimated using the stocks-drive-flows model, in which the demand is determined by the change in stock. The growth of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the future was estimated by considering economic growth on the basis of the transition of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the past. The cumulative zinc demand for galvanized steel up to the year 2050 was compared with the zinc reserves. It was found that the global average recovery rate of zinc was estimated at approximately 20% by the dynamic substance flow analysis for zinc. It is hoped that the recovery rate will increase. Even if zinc intensity is continuously reduced according to an experience curve based on technological development, a large portion of the current reserves will be consumed for galvanized steel. It was concluded that technological development in reducing zinc intensity will play a significant role in zinc resource conservation.     

The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index: An Integrated Assessment Tool for Community Resilience and Vulnerability with Respect to Freshwater

People in the Arctic face uncertainty in their daily lives as they contend with environmental changes at a range of scales from local to global. Freshwater is a critical resource to people, and although water resource indicators have been developed that operate from regional to global scales and for midlatitude to equatorial environments, no appropriate index exists for assessing the vulnerability of Arctic communities to changing water resources at the local scale. The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index (AWRVI) is proposed as a tool that Arctic communities can use to assess their relative vulnerability-resilience to changes in their water resources from a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic processes. The AWRVI is based on a social-ecological systems perspective that includes physical and social indicators of change and is demonstrated in three case study communities/watersheds in Alaska. These results highlight the value of communities engaging in the process of using the AWRVI and the diagnostic capability of examining the suite of constituent physical and social scores rather than the total AWRVI score alone.     

高技术产业创新资源绩效的时空分异研究——以全球创新型国家为例

构建了高技术产业创新资源绩效评价的投入产出指标体系,利用《美国科学工程分类指标年鉴》及经济合作与发展组织（OECD） 1995-2011年高技术产业活动相关数据,运用超效率DEA模型和区域差异测度锡尔指数对全球28个国家或地区的高技术产业创新资源绩效及各区域创新资源绩效差异进行分析.结果显示：①全球28个国家或地区的高技术产业创新资源绩效水平呈现两级分化趋势.其中,新加坡、瑞士、瑞典、美国4个国家的得分较高,排名靠前,其他国家或地区绩效水平较低.②欧洲、美洲、亚洲-大洋洲之间的高技术产业创新资源绩效水平差异呈现缩小趋势,欧洲区域内部高技术产业创新资源绩效水平差异呈现逐年扩大趋势.     

An eco-environmental water demand based model for optimising water resources using hybrid genetic simulated annealing algorithms. Part I. Model development

We propose here an improved multi-objective optimisation model that considers eco-environmental water demand (EWD) for allocating water resources in a river basin over the long term. The model considers economic, social, and environmental objectives, and it improves on traditional optimisation methods by emphasizing not only the water demand of the artificial ecosystem but also that of the natural ecosystem. Water resource constraints are considered. The hybrid genetic simulated annealing algorithms (HGSAA) technique incorporates a genetic algorithm (GA) and a simulated annealing (SA) algorithm, which have strong local and global searching abilities, in order to solve the highly non-linear model and avoid local and pre-mature convergence. In the method, the water demands of users in the planning year serve as the basis for long-term optimisation using a forecasting procedure. In this study, the combined forecasting method based on the principle of optimal combination is built to forecast domestic and industrial water demands. The proposed model and method are subsequently used in a companion paper to optimise water allocation in the Haihe River basin in China [An eco-environmental water demand based model for optimising water resources using hybrid genetic simulated annealing algorithms. Part II. Model application and results 90 (8), 2612–2619].     

中国盾叶薯蓣资源现状及保护对策

论述了我国盾叶薯蓣的野生资源现状、人工种植生产现状、资源濒危原因及应采取的保护对策.指出:我国现有盾叶薯蓣野生资源蕴藏量估计在200万kg左右,资源数量已大为下降,然而年需求量却高达2亿kg以上,供需矛盾十分突出.造成资源濒危的主要原因是利用过度、生境及种质资源被破坏、家种者皂素含量低且质量差而不能大批量用于皂素生产.建议在采取有效保护野生资源的同时,尽快建立全国性良种繁育基地,按GAP要求建立我国现代化、规模化、规范化的高产优质药材原料生产基地,从根本上解决当前盾叶薯蓣资源保护与利用的矛盾.     

The common property resource problem and the fisheries of Barbados and Jamaica

Common property resources (CPR) tend to be particularly susceptible to depletion and degredation. This creates problems for sustainable development and for resource stewardship in general since many of the key global resources are common property. The article explores the different definitions of CPR and the traps associated with the harvesting of CPR without understanding the social, economic, and environmental costs related to their exploitation. The commons problem may be approached in terms of a private property solution, the allocation of individual quotas to fishermen, or a communal property solution in which communities of fishermen basically manage their own fisheries. The offshore fishery of Barbados lends itself to the private property solution, and the inshore fishery of Jamaica, to the communal property solution.Drawing from case studies of Jamaica and Barbados fisheries, four principles of CPR use are proposed: (a) the solution of the CPR problem starts with the control of access to the resource, (b) increasing production from a CPR depends on the conservation of the resource base, (c) the sustainable utilization of a CPR is closely connected to the use of technology appropriate for the harvest, and (d) local-level management improves prospects for the sustainable use of a CPR. The case studies illustrate that there may be local, national, and international levels of interest over the resource. Hence, the successful management of such resources as Barbados and Jamaica fisheries requires that conflicting demands for the resources be taken into account, perhaps using a cooperative management approach.     

不确定条件下矿产资源的最优开采

通过一个连续时间的随机动态规划模型,探讨了市场需求、资源存量的不确定性以及勘探活动对矿产资源价格和开采速度的影响,并给出了随机条件下Hotelling法则的表达形式.模型结果显示:不确定性对资源价格变化速度的影响主要取决于开采成本,如果相对于资源存量来说开采成本是不变的或者开采的规模成本是不变的,则不确定性对资源价格的变化速度没有影响.反之,如果开采的规模成本是递增的,则不确定性会加速资源价格的变化.此外,不确定性的存在将加快资源的开采速度.至于勘探活动,它一方面降低了地质条件的不确定性,另一方面增加了资源的存量,所以勘探活动降低了资源价格和开采速度的变化率,减少了不确定性对资源开采的影响.     

Metal scarcity and sustainability,analyzing the necessity to reduce the extraction of scarce metals

There is debate whether or not further growth of metal extraction from the earth's crust will be sustainable in connection with geologic scarcity. Will future generations possibly face a depletion of specific metals? We study whether, for which metals and to what extent the extraction rate would need to be reduced in order to be sustainable. To do so, we propose an operational definition for the sustainable extraction rate of metals. We have divided 42 metals in 4 groups according to their geologic scarcity. Applying the proposed sustainability definition to the 17 scarcest metals, shows that for almost all considered metals the global consumption of primary resources needs to be reduced to stay within sustainable limits as defined in our analysis. The 8 geologically scarcest metals are antimony, bismuth, boron, copper, gold, molybdenum, rhenium and zinc.     

Greening the Brazil,Russia, India,China and South Africa (BRICS) economies: Assessing the impact of electricity consumption,natural resources,and renewable energy on environmental footprint

Electricity consumption is a crucial factor in the environmental pollution process, and therefore, its impact needs to be carefully considered by policymakers. This study investigates the relationship between energy consumption, electricity generation, natural resource utilization, and environmental pollution in BRICS nations, which have a substantial share in global resource consumption. To this end, we employed a novel methodology, namely the Method of Moment Quantile Regression (MMQR), for the time period between 1990 and 2018, within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory. The study's outcome shows that natural resources and renewable energy are efficacious and significant in curbing environmental degradation among the sample countries. The investigation reveals a positive correlation between electricity consumption and environmental degradation, thereby highlighting this vital resource's role in exacerbating the BRICS nations’ ecological footprint. The findings from this research can provide crucial insights for policymakers to achieve sustainable development and carbon neutrality in these countries.     

A GIS-based protocol for the collection and use of local knowledge in fisheries management planning

Despite a heavy reliance on scientific knowledge as the primary source of information in resource management, many resources are in decline, particularly in fisheries. To try and combat this trend, researchers have drawn upon the knowledge of local resource users as an important supplement to scientific knowledge in designing and implementing management strategies. The integration of local knowledge with scientific knowledge for marine species management, however, is problematic stemming primarily from conflicting data types. This paper considers the use of spatial information technology as a medium to integrate and visualise spatial distributions of both quantitative scientific data and qualitative local knowledge for the purposes of producing valid and locally relevant fisheries management plans. In this context, the paper presents a detailed protocol for the collection and subsequent use of local knowledge in fisheries management planning using geographic information systems (GIS). Particular attention is paid to the use of local knowledge in resource management, accuracy issues associated with the incorporation of qualitative data into a quantitative environment, base map selection and construction, and map bias or errors associated with the accuracy of recording harvest locations on paper map sheets, given the complications of map scale.     

Copper in India: Present and future outlook

The availability of mineral resources plays an important role in India's national economy. Copper, one of the important non-ferrous metals, has various industrial uses and demand for it is increasing in India where the inventory and production of copper, though not comparable with developed countries, shows an impressive growth rate, particularly during the last decade. With an increasing rate of industrial production envisaged in future plans copper consumption is expected to rise. Logistic curves have been used to study the potential long-term production capability under the dynamic concept of reserves and resources, with curves drawn for various estimates of total available resources. The production figures shown are not final and are subject to change due to a number of factors. This approach merely provides a method for projecting trends in future production.     

Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining

The concept of “peak oil” has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of “peak minerals”, particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline.The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century.     

Copper, Cobalt, Nickel and Manganese Availability from Land-based Endowments A Perspective

Estimates of land-based demonstrated resources of cobalt, copper, manganese, and nickel would indicate adequate supply for many years to come based on current levels of annual consumption. However, when these resource estimates are disaggregated, much of this resource is found to occur in a limited number of producing mines. Almost all of the cobalt in these resources coexists with either nickel or copper, and as such, will be available only to the degree extraction of these two metals from existing mines is economical. Finally, current projections of excess capacity in existing mines for all four metals, coupled with additional inferred resources at these mines and yet to be exploited resources in known economical deposits, would lead one to conclude that, from this perspective, the mining of sea bed nodules is not likely to occur until well into the next century.     

SPATIAL COMPARABILITY OF THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index, which is intended to be of reasonable comparable local significance both in space and time, has been extensively used as a measure of drought for both agricultural and water resource management. This study examines the spatial comparability of Palmer's (1965) definition of severe and extreme drought. Index values have been computed for 1035 sites with at least 60 years of record that are scattered across the contiguous United States, and quantile values corresponding to a specified index value were calculated for given months and then mapped. The analyses show that severe or extreme droughts, as defined by Palmer (1965), are not spatially comparable in terms of identifying rare events. The wide variation across the country in the frequency of occurrence of Palmer's (1965) extreme droughts reflects the differences in the variability of precipitation, as well as the average amount of precipitation. It is recommended first, that a drought index be developed which considers both variability and averages; and second, that water resource managers and planners define a drought in terms of an index value that corresponds to the expected quantile (return period) of the event.     

可持续发展的资源定价、资源产权与资源税——不可再生资源管理的经济学分析

自然资源消耗是人类社会发展的基础，也是必然结果。不可再生资源的过度消耗和枯竭导致人类的危机感，可持续发展成为人们的共识。根据代际公平的原则，结合产权经济学原理，按照微观经济学范式，研究了不可再生资源的代内以及代际配置问题。研究认为，明晰产权和准确的资源定价可解决代内资源的有效配置，科学的资源税可实现代际公平；为了实现可持续发展，准确的资源定价、明晰的资源产权和科学的资源税是不可再生资源配置相互关联并不可或缺的三把钥匙。     

Global localism: Recentering the research agenda for biodiversity conservation

Global environmental crisis narratives about biodiversity loss promote conservation research on how human activities impact natural resources and link scientific findings to protectionist policies. This paper critiques how local knowledge, over space and through time, is constructed for these studies and integrated with ecological measures and qualitative interpretations of biodiversity conditions. As a case example, we describe how ethnoecological research at Mt. Kasigau, a biodiversity hot spot in Southeastern Kenya, changes ‘scientific’ views on human–resource relations. Species richness in woody plants and local knowledge about trees show resource continua on the mountain that question the designation of diverse undisturbed forests and degraded human‐utilized lands. Local narratives document spatially dynamic and adaptive relationships between the Kasigau Taita and their plant resources as they moved up and down the mountain in response to environmental conditions and extra local forces. We argue that greater ‘local learning’ about local places is important to hypothesizing and potentially guiding ‘global action’ for biodiversity conservation.     

Phosphate rock production and depletion: Regional disaggregated modeling and global implications

Numerous recent studies discuss phosphate rock extraction, and some even propose that a peak in production could be reached in coming decades. This would have great consequences as phosphate rock based fertilizers are irreplaceable in modern agriculture. Studies suggesting an impending peak commonly use curve fitting models where mathematical functions are fitted to historical world production data, while studies using other methods reach completely different results. Also, a sudden increase in global reserve estimates is commonly used to dismiss these warnings, and has somewhat altered the debate. The recent multiplication of estimated reserves is mostly based on an increase of the Moroccan reserve estimate, leading to Morocco currently making up most of the global reserves. This study models global phosphate rock production using a disaggregated curve fitting model based on the production in individual major producing countries, providing a somewhat different view than most studies, and show that the global trade of phosphate rock could be completely dependent on Morocco in the future. There are several different factors that can potentially limit global production and these factors should be considered for the individual producing countries. Society's total dependence on phosphate rock should be further investigated despite claims of large resource occurrences.