A Decision‐Analytic Approach to Managing Climate Risks: Application to the Upper Great Lakes1

Brown, Casey, William Werick, Wendy Leger, and David Fay, 2011. A Decision‐Analytic Approach to Managing Climate Risks: Application to the Upper Great Lakes. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):524‐534. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00552.x Abstract: In this paper, we present a risk analysis and management process designed for use in water resources planning and management under climate change. The process incorporates climate information through a method called decision‐scaling, whereby information related to climate projections is tailored for use in a decision‐analytic framework. The climate risk management process begins with the identification of vulnerabilities by asking stakeholders and resource experts what water conditions they could cope with and which would require substantial policy or investment shifts. The identified vulnerabilities and thresholds are formalized with a water resources systems model that relates changes in the physical climate conditions to the performance metrics corresponding to vulnerabilities. The irreducible uncertainty of climate change projections is addressed through a dynamic management plan embedded within an adaptive management process. Implementation of the process is described as applied in the ongoing International Upper Great Lakes Study.     

Vulnerability of the South African farming sector to climate change and variability: An indicator approach

This paper analyses the vulnerability of South African agriculture to climate change and variability by developing a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across the nine provinces of the country. Nineteen environmental and socio‐economic indicators are identified to reflect the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results of the study show that the regions most exposed to climate change and variability do not always overlap with those experiencing high sensitivity or low adaptive capacity. Furthermore, vulnerability to climate change and variability is intrinsically linked with social and economic development. The Western Cape and Gauteng provinces, which have high levels of infrastructure development, high literacy rates, and low shares of agriculture in total GDP, are relatively low on the vulnerability index. In contrast, the highly vulnerable regions of Limpopo, Kwazulu‐Natal and the Eastern Cape are characterised by densely populated rural areas, large numbers of small‐scale farmers, high dependency on rain‐fed agriculture and high land degradation. These large differences in the extent of vulnerability among provinces suggest that policymakers should develop region‐specific policies and address climate change at the local level.     

Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic,Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.     

Communication and use of climate scenarios for climate change adaptation in Finland,Sweden and Norway

This paper assesses the communication and the use of climate scenarios at the science–science and science–policy interface in Finland, Sweden and Norway. It is based on document analysis and stakeholder questionnaires. The questionnaires targeted three stakeholder groups, all engaged in the communication and the use of climate scenario information: climate scenario producers; impact, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) experts; and policy-makers. The respondents were asked to identify issues associated with the communication of scenarios and other needs pertaining to the usefulness and availability of such information. Despite the relatively long history of climate change adaptation in the three countries, climate scenarios are not utilised to their full potential. Climate scenarios have been used in awareness raising, problem understanding and strategy development. However, far less examples can be found on adaptation actions, particularly on harnessing the benefits of climate change. The communication between climate scenario producers and IAV experts functions well; however, communication between climate researchers and policy-makers is less efficient. Each country has developed boundary services to enhance dissemination of the climate scenario information to policy-makers. They are cost-efficient but do not necessarily enhance the comprehension of the information and encourage the actual dialogue between scenario producers and the end-users. Further translation of scenario information to impact and vulnerability estimates together with established boundary work could improve the use of climate research information. As adaptation policy in these countries further progresses towards implementation, there are increasing expectations of support from research, further challenging the communication of climate scenarios.     

Sustaining Ecological Integrity with Respect to Climate Change: A Fuzzy Adaptive Management Approach

A fuzzy adaptive management framework is proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of an ecosystem to losing ecological integrity as a result of climate change in an historical period (ex post evaluation) and selecting the best compensatory management action for reducing potential adverse impacts of future climate change on ecological integrity in a future period (ex ante evaluation). The ex post evaluation uses fuzzy logic to test hypotheses about the extent of past ecosystem vulnerability to losing ecological integrity and the ex ante evaluation uses the fuzzy minimax regret criterion to determine the best compensatory management action for alleviating potential adverse impacts of climate change on ecosystem vulnerability to losing ecological integrity in a future period. The framework accounts for uncertainty regarding: (1) the relationship between ecosystem vulnerability to losing ecological integrity and ecosystem resilience; (2) the relationship between ecosystem resilience and the extent to which observed indicators of ecological integrity depart from their thresholds; (3) the extent of future climate change; and (4) the potential impacts of future climate change on ecological integrity and ecosystem resilience. The adaptive management element of the framework involves using the ex post and ex ante evaluations iteratively in consecutive time segments of the future time period to determine if and when it is beneficial to adjust compensatory management actions to climate change. A constructed example is used to demonstrate the framework.     

Spatiotemporal Variability of Snow Depletion Curves Derived from SNODAS for the Conterminous United States, 2004‐2013

Assessment of water resources at a national scale is critical for understanding their vulnerability to future change in policy and climate. Representation of the spatiotemporal variability in snowmelt processes in continental‐scale hydrologic models is critical for assessment of water resource response to continued climate change. Continental‐extent hydrologic models such as the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model (NHM) represent snowmelt processes through the application of snow depletion curves (SDCs). SDCs relate normalized snow water equivalent (SWE) to normalized snow covered area (SCA) over a snowmelt season for a given modeling unit. SDCs were derived using output from the operational Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) snow model as daily 1‐km gridded SWE over the conterminous United States. Daily SNODAS output were aggregated to a predefined watershed‐scale geospatial fabric and used to also calculate SCA from October 1, 2004 to September 30, 2013. The spatiotemporal variability in SNODAS output at the watershed scale was evaluated through the spatial distribution of the median and standard deviation for the time period. Representative SDCs for each watershed‐scale modeling unit over the conterminous United States (n = 54,104) were selected using a consistent methodology and used to create categories of snowmelt based on SDC shape. The relation of SDC categories to the topographic and climatic variables allow for national‐scale categorization of snowmelt processes.     

Southwest climate gap: poverty and environmental justice in the US Southwest

This article examines the “climate gap” in the Southwest US (Arizona and New Mexico), referring to the “disproportionate and unequal implications of climate change and climate change mitigation” for “people of color and the poor” [Shonkoff, S.B., et al., 2011. The climate gap: environmental health and equity implications of climate change mitigation policies in California. Climatic Change, 109 (Suppl. 1), S485–S503]. The climate and poverty relationship is examined using multi-scaled analysis across three indicators of climate vulnerability, focusing on connections to health, food, and energy during the period 2010–2012. We provide an overview of climate-related social vulnerability in the Southwest based on available federal, state, and county-level census data. We then summarise the results from a stakeholder workshop and in-depth interviews about climate vulnerabilities with social service providers in southern Arizona. We identify a significant Southwest climate gap based on census data and interview findings about climate vulnerability especially relating to high levels of poverty, health disparities, and increasing costs for energy, water, and food. We find that grassroots and community organisations have mobilised to respond to climate and social vulnerability, yet resources for mitigation and adaptation are insufficient given the high level of need. Confronting a changing climate that is projected to be hotter, drier, and with the potential to reach new thresholds, we suggest that more research needs to be done to understand the social and spatial characteristics of climate risk and how low-income populations embody and experience climate risk, and adapt to a changing climate.     

Improved Bankfull Channel Geometry Prediction Using Two‐Year Return‐Period Discharge1

He, Laien and Gregory V. Wilkerson, 2011. Improved Bankfull Channel Geometry Prediction Using Two‐Year Return‐Period Discharge. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1298–1316. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00567.x Abstract:  Bankfull discharge (Q_bf) and bankfull channel geometry (i.e., width, W_bf; mean depth, D_bf; and cross‐section area, A_bf) are important design parameters in stream restoration, habitat creation, mined land reclamation, and related projects. The selection of values for these parameters is facilitated by regional curves (regression models in which Q_bf, W_bf, D_bf, and A_bf are predicted as a function of drainage area, A_da). This paper explores the potential for the two‐year return‐period discharge (Q₂) to improve predictions of W_bf, D_bf, and A_bf. Improved predictions are expected because Q₂ estimates integrate the effects of basin drainage area, climate, and geology. For conducting this study, 29 datasets (each representing one hydrologic region) spanning 14 states in the United States were analyzed. We assessed the utility of using Q₂ by comparing statistical measures of regression model performance (e.g., coefficient of determination and Akaike’s information criterion). Compared to using A_da, Q₂ is shown to be a “clearly superior” predictor of W_bf, D_bf, and A_bf, respectively, for 21, 13, and 25% of the datasets. By contrast, A_da yielded a clearly superior model for predicting W_bf, D_bf, and A_bf, respectively, for 0, 0, and 14% of the datasets. Our conclusion is that it alongside with developing conventional regional curves using A_da it is prudent to develop regional curves that use Q₂ as an independent variable because in some cases the resulting model will be superior.     

The role of community-based watershed development in reducing farmers’ vulnerability to climate change and variability in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Community-based watershed development (CBWD) has been implemented in Ethiopia since the last three decades. However, the benefits of these watershed development interventions for climate change adaptation are not well documented. This study, therefore, assesses the contributions of CBWD in reducing farmers’ vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and variability in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. Data were collected from systematically selected 157 households using questionnaire. The questionnaire consists of questions on climate, ecosystem and households’ livelihood capital. Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change Livelihood Vulnerability Index (IPCC-LVI) methods were used to generate vulnerability indices. Vulnerability indices computed for three conserved watersheds were compared with one non-conserved watershed using one-way ANOVA test. LVI score for ecosystem related indicators was significantly low for Adef Wuha compared to the non-conserved watershed. Similarly, LVI scores generated from agriculture, wealth and social indicators were low for Tija Baji and Guansa watersheds. On the other hand, the IPCC-LVI result did not show significant differences in exposure; however, sensitivity scores of conserved watersheds were significantly lower compared to the non-conserved. The adaptive capacities of two conserved watersheds (Guansa and Tija Baji) were also significantly lower as compared to the non-conserved. The overall (composite) vulnerability of watersheds generated from both methods (LVI and IPCC-LVI) showed that the conserved watersheds were less vulnerable to climate change compared to the non-conserved. The findings suggest that CBWD is an important strategy to reduce vulnerability of smallholder farmers to the ongoing and future climate change.     

A Hydrologic Drying Bias in Water‐Resource Impact Analyses of Anthropogenic Climate Change

For water‐resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (E_p) as inputs. Because E_p is not a climate‐model output, an intermediary model of E_p must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several E_p methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible E_p method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC‐driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress (E_w). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used E_p methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy‐only” method). With the exception of the energy‐only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in E_p associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the E_p‐change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration (E), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC‐induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water‐resource impact analyses.     

Spatially identifying vulnerable communities to climate change impact in South Australia

The impending form and extent of climate change and its direct impacts present disproportionate challenges for the most socially and economically disadvantaged groups within populations. Evaluating the vulnerability of disadvantaged groups in the context of climate change has presented tremendous theoretical, methodological and policy challenges especially where vulnerability assessment research is focused at the local community level. This study addresses the challenges by developing an interdisciplinary methodology, based on expert knowledge, and uses the state of South Australia as a case study. It focuses on key indicators that measure the exposure of local communities to climate change and socio-economic vulnerabilities of local populations. A main contribution in this study is the novel incorporation of physical, environmental and socio-demographic data sets and extensive use of spatial modelling and estimation methods to spatially define climate change and social vulnerability “hot spots”. This paper assesses vulnerability under moderate and high Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CO₂ emission scenarios in order to generate an assessment model to be used before planning is done. The result is the creation of a practical tool through which decision-makers can better understand how the complexity of one's local spatial context influences the unique exposure, which different vulnerable communities have, to the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a useful tool that can be used in the initial assessment phase by planners and policy-makers to better assist those who are limited in their ability to adapt to climate change.     

Long‐Term Streamflow Response to Climatic Variability in the Loess Plateau,China1

Abstract: The Loess Plateau region in northwestern China has experienced severe water resource shortages due to the combined impacts of climate and land use changes and water resource exploitation during the past decades. This study was designed to examine the impacts of climatic variability on streamflow characteristics of a 12‐km² watershed near Tianshui City, Gansu Province in northwestern China. Statistic analytical methods including Kendall’s trend test and stepwise regression were used to detect trends in relationship between observed streamflow and climatic variables. Sensitivity analysis based on an evapotranspiration model was used to detect quantitative hydrologic sensitivity to climatic variability. We found that precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET) and streamflow (Q) were not statistically significantly different (p > 0.05) over the study period between 1982 and 2003. Stepwise regression and sensitivity analysis all indicated that P was more influential than PET in affecting annual streamflow, but the similar relationship existed at the monthly scale. The sensitivity of streamflow response to variations of P and PET increased slightly with the increase in watershed dryness (PET/P) as well as the increase in runoff ratio (Q/P). This study concluded that future changes in climate, precipitation in particular, will significantly impact water resources in the Loess Plateau region an area that is already experiencing a decreasing trend in water yield.     

Jordan’s climate change governance framework: from silos to an intersectoral approach

Jordan is not immune from climate change impacts. The complex characteristics (cross-boundary, multi-level, multi-sector, multi-agency settings, long-term challenges, and uncertainty) and long-term impacts of climate change confront Jordan’s decision-makers with a pressing question: Is the current governance framework adequate to respond coherently to the climate change impact, or is a new framework needed for future preparedness? To address this question, four qualitative research methods were applied to collect data reflecting diverse views about issues and in different contexts. Data were examined from different perspectives to aid in validating the conclusions. Results show that there are limitations in the current climate change governance framework. Better understanding of the intersectoral approach is necessary to develop appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies that recognize the full extent of climate change vulnerability, rather than viewing single sectors in isolation. Accordingly, an intersectoral coordination roadmap was proposed to support the implementation of Jordan’s climate change policy (2013–2020).     

Learning,participation, and adaptation: exploring agri-environmental programmes

This paper explores the perceptions of policy makers and rural agricultural producers in respect of policy framing and adaptation to climate change, social learning and stakeholder input (participation) surrounding two successful agri-environmental programmes in Saskatchewan, Canada. Given the record of success of these two programmes in reducing vulnerability to climate change, this study provides an opportunity to explore certain attributes of adaptive management, including: what attributes make policy and programmes responsive; how government can frame programmes facilitating adaptation to climate change; what types of mechanisms can or should be used to engage with producers; and perhaps most importantly, what producers expect of government, government policies and programmes in relation to adaptation to climate change.     

Long‐Term Trends in Streamflow and Precipitation in Northwest California and Southwest Oregon, 1953‐2012

Using nonparametric Mann‐Kendall tests, we assessed long‐term (1953‐2012) trends in streamflow and precipitation in Northern California and Southern Oregon at 26 sites regulated by dams and 41 “unregulated” sites. Few (9%) sites had significant decreasing trends in annual precipitation, but September precipitation declined at 70% of sites. Site characteristics such as runoff type (groundwater, snow, or rain) and dam regulation influenced streamflow trends. Decreasing streamflow trends outnumbered increasing trends for most months except at regulated sites for May‐September. Summer (July‐September) streamflow declined at many sites, including 73% of unregulated sites in September. Applying a LOESS regression model of antecedent precipitation vs. average monthly streamflow, we evaluated the underlying streamflow trend caused by factors other than precipitation. Decreasing trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow substantially outnumbered increasing trends for most months. As with streamflow, groundwater‐dominated sites had a greater percent of declining trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow than other runoff types. The most pristine surface‐runoff‐dominated watersheds within the study area showed no decreases in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow during the summer months. These results suggest that streamflow decreases at other sites were likely due to more increased human withdrawals and vegetation changes than to climate factors other than precipitation quantity.     

Assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change in the Nordic countries – an interactive geovisualization approach

Nordic agriculture must adapt to climate change to reduce vulnerability and exploit potential opportunities. Integrated assessments can identify and quantify vulnerability in order to recognize these adaptation needs. This study presents a geographic visualization approach to support the interactive assessment of agricultural vulnerability to climate change. We have identified requirements for increased transparency and reflexivity in vulnerability assessments, arguing that these can be met by geographic visualization. A conceptual framework to support the integration of geographic visualization for vulnerability assessments has been designed and applied for the development of AgroExplore, an interactive tool for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change in Sweden. To open up the black box of composite vulnerability indices, AgroExplore enables the user to select, weight, and classify relevant indicators into sub-indices of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This enables the exploration of underlying indicators and factors determining vulnerability in Nordic agriculture.     

Nonstationarity in Water Resources – Central European Perspective1

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., 2011. Nonstationarity in Water Resources – Central European Perspective. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3): 550‐562. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00549.x Abstract: Nonstationarity in variables describing water quantity and water quality characteristics is reviewed, and an attempt to interpret nonstationary behavior is made with particular reference to the Central European region. Nonstationarity in water‐related variables results from several nonclimatic and climatic factors. Albeit evidence of climate change in Central Europe is clear, anthropogenic nonclimatic change, such as land‐use or land‐cover changes, water engineering measures, and in‐catchment water management play important roles. Systemic socioeconomic and political changes are the main factors responsible for the observed change in water quality in the region. The observed climate change in the Central European region has not been dramatic enough to persuade the water management community that changes of standards, criteria, and evaluation procedures should be made. Projections for the future largely differ between models and scenarios, hence information obtained from climate models is found too vague to be used. However, the water management community shows interest in climate change observations, projections, and impact assessments. Numerous hydrological research projects to tackle nonstationarity have been undertaken in the region. Also important acts of legislation, such as the European Union’s Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive can be regarded in the context of nonstationarity of water‐related variables.     

Air‐Water Temperature Relationships in the Trout Streams of Southeastern Minnesota's Carbonate‐Sandstone Landscape

Carbonate‐sandstone geology in southeastern Minnesota creates a heterogeneous landscape of springs, seeps, and sinkholes that supply groundwater into streams. Air temperatures are effective predictors of water temperature in surface‐water dominated streams. However, no published work investigates the relationship between air and water temperatures in groundwater‐fed streams (GWFS) across watersheds. We used simple linear regressions to examine weekly air‐water temperature relationships for 40 GWFS in southeastern Minnesota. A 40‐stream, composite linear regression model has a slope of 0.38, an intercept of 6.63, and R² of 0.83. The regression models for GWFS have lower slopes and higher intercepts in comparison to surface‐water dominated streams. Regression models for streams with high R² values offer promise for use as predictive tools for future climate conditions. Climate change is expected to alter the thermal regime of groundwater‐fed systems, but will do so at a slower rate than surface‐water dominated systems. A regression model of intercept vs. slope can be used to identify streams for which water temperatures are more meteorologically than groundwater controlled, and thus more vulnerable to climate change. Such relationships can be used to guide restoration vs. management strategies to protect trout streams.     

Local Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change and Local Adaptive Strategies: A Case Study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, Tibet, China

Climate change affects the productivity of agricultural ecosystems. Farmers cope with climate change based on their perceptions of changing climate patterns. Using a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, we present a new research framework that uses questionnaire and interview methods to compare local farmers’ perceptions of climate change with the adaptive farming strategies they adopt. Most farmers in the valley believed that temperatures had increased in the last 30 years but did not note any changes in precipitation. Most farmers also reported sowing and harvesting hulless barley 10–15 days earlier than they were 20 years ago. In addition, farmers observed that plants were flowering and river ice was melting earlier in the season, but they did not perceive changes in plant germination, herbaceous vegetation growth, or other spring seasonal events. Most farmers noticed an extended fall season signified by delays in the freezing of rivers and an extended growing season for grassland vegetation. The study results showed that agricultural practices in the study area are still traditional; that is, local farmers’ perceptions of climate change and their strategies to mitigate its impacts were based on indigenous knowledge and their own experiences. Adaptive strategies included adjusting planting and harvesting dates, changing crop species, and improving irrigation infrastructure. However, the farmers’ decisions could not be fully attributed to their concerns about climate change. Local farming systems exhibit high adaptability to climate variability. Additionally, off-farm income has reduced the dependence of the farmers on agriculture, and an agricultural subsidy from the Chinese Central Government has mitigated the farmers’ vulnerability. Nevertheless, it remains necessary for local farmers to build a system of adaptive climate change strategies that combines traditional experience and indigenous knowledge with scientific research and government polices as key factors.     

Vulnerability of Fraser River sockeye salmon to climate change: A life cycle perspective using expert judgments

Fraser River sockeye salmon have been the basis for a major commercial fishery shared by Canada and the United States, and an important cultural foundation for many aboriginal groups; they are also of huge ecological significance throughout the Fraser Basin. The potential for altered aquatic habitat and temperature regimes due to climate change is an important concern for Fraser River sockeye salmon. This paper characterizes the vulnerability of Fraser River sockeye salmon to future climate change using an approach that is novel on three counts. First, previous efforts to assess the vulnerability of salmon to climate change have largely focused on only part of the life cycle, whereas we consider climate vulnerability at all stages in the life cycle. Second, we use the available scientific literature to provide a basis for structuring and eliciting judgments from fisheries science and management experts who research and manage these systems. Third, we consider prospects for mitigating the effects of climate change on sockeye salmon. Tests showed that participants’ judgments differentiated in statistically significant ways among questions that varied in terms of life stages, spawning regions and climate scenarios. The consensus among participants was that Fraser River sockeye are most vulnerable to climate change during the egg and returning adult stages of the life cycle. A high temperature scenario was seen as imposing the greatest risk on sockeye stocks, particularly those that migrate to the upper reaches of the Fraser River system and spawn earlier in the summer. The inability to alter water temperature and the highly constrained nature of sockeye management, with competing gear types and sequential fisheries over a long distance, suggest the potential to mitigate adverse effects is limited. Fraser River sockeye already demonstrate a great deal of adaptive capacity in utilizing heterogeneous habitats in different river sub-basins. This adaptability points to the potential value of policies to make stocks more resilient to uncertain futures.