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1.
ABSTRACT: Historical records of streamflow for an eastward- and a westward-draining stream in the northern Sierra Nevada have been analyzed for evidence of changes in runoff characteristics and patterns of variability. A trend of increasing and more variable winter streamflow began in the mid-1960s. Mean monthly streaniflow during December through March was substantially greater for water years 1965–1990 compared to water years 1939–1964. Increased winter and early-spring streamflow during the later period is attributed to small increases in temperature, which increase the rain-to-snow ratio at lower altitudes and cause the snowpack to melt earlier in the season at higher altitudes. The timing of snowmelt runoff on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada is more sensitive than it is on the eastern slope to changes in temperature, owing to predominantly lower altitudes on the west side. This difference in sensitivity suggests that basins on the east side of the Sierra Nevada have a more reliable water supply (as snow storage) than western-slope basins during warming trends.  相似文献   

2.
ABSTRACT: Previous reports based on climate change scenarios have suggested that California will be subjected to increased wintertime and decreased summertime streamflow. Due to the uncertainty of projections in future climate, a new range of potential climatological future temperature shifts and precipitation ratios is applied to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model and Anderson Snow Model in order to determine hydrologic sensitivities. Two general circulation models (GCMs) were used in this analysis: one that is warm and wet (HadCM2 run 1) and one that is cool and dry (PCM run B06.06), relative to the GCM projections for California that were part of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A set of specified incremental temperature shifts from 1.5°C to 5.0°C and precipitation ratios from 0.70 to 1.30 were also used as input to the snow and soil moisture accounting models, providing for additional scenarios (e.g., warm/dry, cool/wet). Hydrologic calculations were performed for a set of California river basins that extend from the coastal mountains and Sierra Nevada northern region to the southern Sierra Nevada region; these were applied to a water allocation analysis in a companion paper. Results indicate that for all snow‐producing cases, a larger proportion of the streamflow volume will occur earlier in the year. The amount and timing is dependent on the characteristics of each basin, particularly the elevation. Increased temperatures lead to a higher freezing line, therefore less snow accumulation and increased melting below the freezing height. The hydrologic response varies for each scenario, and the resulting solution set provides bounds to the range of possible change in streamflow, snowmelt, snow water equivalent, and the change in the magnitude of annual high flows. An important result that appears for all snowmelt driven runoff basins, is that late winter snow accumulation decreases by 50 percent toward the end of this century.  相似文献   

3.
Clark, Gregory M., 2010. Changes in Patterns of Streamflow From Unregulated Watersheds in Idaho, Western Wyoming, and Northern Nevada. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):486-497. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00416.x Abstract: Recent studies have identified a pattern of earlier spring runoff across much of North America. Earlier spring runoff potentially poses numerous problems, including increased risk of flooding and reduced summer water supply for irrigation, power generation, and migratory fish passage. To identify changing runoff patterns in Idaho streams, streamflow records were analyzed for 26 U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations in Idaho, western Wyoming, and northern Nevada, each with a minimum of 41 years of record. The 26 stations are located on 23 unregulated and relatively pristine streams that drain areas ranging from 28 to >35,000 km2. Four runoff parameters were trend tested at each station for both the period of historical record and from 1967 through 2007. Parameters tested were annual mean streamflow, annual minimum daily streamflow, and the dates of the 25th and 50th percentiles of the annual total streamflow. Results of a nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test revealed a trend toward lower annual mean and annual minimum streamflows at a majority of the stations, as well as a trend toward earlier snowmelt runoff. Significant downward trends over the period of historical record were most prevalent for the annual minimum streamflow (12 stations) and the 50th percentile of streamflow (11 stations). At most stations, trends were more pronounced during the period from 1967 through 2007. A regional Kendall test for water years 1967 through 2007 revealed significant regional trends in the percent change in the annual mean and annual minimum streamflows (0.67% less per year and 0.62% less per year, respectively), the 25th percentile of streamflow (12.3 days earlier), and the 50th percentile of streamflow (11.5 days earlier).  相似文献   

4.
Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting Rio Grande streamflow volume derived from snowmelt runoff in ways consistent with model‐based projections of 21st‐Century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the Upper Rio Grande, near its headwaters in southern Colorado, are assessed for water years 1958–2015. Results indicate winter and spring season temperatures in the basin have increased significantly, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased by approximately 25%, and streamflow has declined slightly in the April–July snowmelt runoff season. Small increases in precipitation have reduced the impact of declining snowpack on trends in streamflow. Changes in the snowpack–runoff relationship are noticeable in hydrographs of mean monthly streamflow, but are most apparent in the changing ratios of precipitation (rain + snow, and SWE) to streamflow and in the declining fraction of runoff attributable to snowpack or winter precipitation. The observed changes provide observational confirmation for model projections of decreasing runoff attributable to snowpack, and demonstrate the decreasing utility of snowpack for predicting subsequent streamflow on a seasonal basis in the Upper Rio Grande Basin.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been applied successfully in temperate environments but little is known about its performance in the snow‐dominated, forested, mountainous watersheds that provide much of the water supply in western North America. To address this knowledge gap, we configured SWAT to simulate the streamflow of Tenderfoot Creek (TCSWAT). Located in central Montana, TCSWAT represents a high‐elevation watershed with ~85% coniferous forest cover where more than 70% of the annual precipitation falls as snow, and runoff comes primarily from spring snowmelt. Model calibration using four years of measured daily streamflow, temperature, and precipitation data resulted in a relative error (RE) of 2% for annual water yield estimates, and mean paired deviations (Dv) of 36 and 31% and Nash‐Sutcliffe (NS) efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.86 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. Model validation was conducted using an additional four years of data and the performance was similar to the calibration period, with RE of 4% for annual water yields, Dv of 43% and 32%, and NS efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.76 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. An objective, regression‐based model invalidation procedure also indicated that the model was validated for the overall simulation period. Seasonally, SWAT performed well during the spring and early summer snowmelt runoff period, but was a poor predictor of late summer and winter base flow. The calibrated model was most sensitive to snowmelt parameters, followed in decreasing order of influence by the surface runoff lag, ground water, soil, and SCS Curve Number parameter sets. Model sensitivity to the surface runoff lag parameter reflected the influence of frozen soils on runoff processes. Results indicated that SWAT can provide reasonable predictions of annual, monthly, and daily streamflow from forested montane watersheds, but further model refinements could improve representation of snowmelt runoff processes and performance during the base flow period in this environment.  相似文献   

6.
ABSTRACT: Wildfires in 1988 burned over 2000 square miles of the greater Yellowstone area in Montana and Wyoming in the largest fires in the history of Yellowstone National Park (YNP). A four-year postfire study to estimate fire-related changes in suspended sediment transport on the Yellowstone River and its principal tributary in YNP, the Lamar River, benefitted from a recently completed three-year prefire baseline study. Both studies took daily depth-integrated samples from April through September. Fire-related changes in suspended sediment were distinguished from natural climatic variations by two methods: comparison of forecast postfire sediment loads estimated with prefire sediment-rating equations to measured postfire loads; and by postfire changes in suspended sediment load expressed per unit volume runoff. Both methods indicated postfire sediment increases that varied according to season. The higher elevation Lamar River basin had little postfire increase in spring snowmelt season sediment but large increases in summer sediment load. The Yellowstone River had postfire increases in sediment load for the spring but did not reflect the large summer increases of its upstream tributary. The reasons for the difference in postfire snowmelt sediment response are unclear but may relate to basin elevation differences, the effects of unburned watersheds, and cooler postfire springs. The few high streamflow snowmelt events in the postfire period mitigated postfire sediment increases.  相似文献   

7.
Hunsaker, Carolyn T., Thomas W. Whitaker, and Roger C. Bales, 2012. Snowmelt Runoff and Water Yield Along Elevation and Temperature Gradients in California’s Southern Sierra Nevada. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 667‐678. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00641.x Abstract: Differences in hydrologic response across the rain‐snow transition in the southern Sierra Nevada were studied in eight headwater catchments – the Kings River Experimental Watersheds – using continuous precipitation, snowpack, and streamflow measurements. The annual runoff ratio (discharge divided by precipitation) increased about 0.1 per 300 m of mean catchment elevation over the range 1,800‐2,400 m. Higher‐elevation catchments have lower vegetation density, shallow soils with rapid permeability, and a shorter growing season when compared with those at lower elevations. Average annual temperatures ranged from 6.8°C at 2,400 m to 8.6 at 1,950 m elevation, with annual precipitation being 75‐95% snow at the highest elevations vs. 20‐50% at the lowest. Peak discharge lagged peak snow accumulation on the order of 60 days at the higher elevations and 20 to 30 days at the lower elevations. Snowmelt dominated the daily streamflow cycle over a period of about 30 days in higher elevation catchments, followed by a 15‐day transition to evapotranspiration dominating the daily streamflow cycle. Discharge from lower elevation catchments was rainfall dominated in spring, with the transition to evapotranspiration dominance being less distinct. Climate warming that results in a longer growing season and a shift from snow to rain would result in earlier runoff and a lower runoff ratio.  相似文献   

8.
Mayer, Timothy D. and Seth W. Naman, 2011. Streamflow Response to Climate as Influenced by Geology and Elevation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):724‐738. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00537.x Abstract: This study examines the regional streamflow response in 25 predominately unregulated basins to warmer winter temperatures and snowpack reductions over the last half century in the Klamath Basin of California and Oregon. Geologic controls of streamflow in the region result in two general stream types: surface‐dominated and groundwater‐dominated basins. Surface‐dominated basins were further differentiated into rain basins and snowmelt basins on the basis of elevation and timing of winter runoff. Streamflow characteristics and response to climate vary with stream type, as discussed in the study. Warmer winter temperatures and snowpack reductions have caused significantly earlier runoff peaks in both snowmelt and groundwater basins in the region. In the groundwater basins, the streamflow response to changes in snowpack is smoothed and delayed and the effects are extended longer in the summer. Our results indicate that absolute decreases in July‐September base flows are significantly greater, by an order of magnitude, in groundwater basins compared to surface‐dominated basins. The declines are important because groundwater basins sustain Upper Klamath Lake inflows and mainstem river flows during the typically dry summers of the area. Upper Klamath Lake April‐September net inflows have decreased an estimated 16% or 84 thousand acre‐feet (103.6 Mm3) since 1961, with the summer months showing proportionately more decline. These changes will exacerbate water supply problems for agriculture and natural resources in the region.  相似文献   

9.
ABSTRACT: Evidence is presented that snowmelt runoff from an urban watershed can produce density current intrusions (underflows) in a lake. Several episodes of density current intrusions are documented. Water temperatures and salinities measured near the bottom of a 10 m deep Minneapolis lake during the late winter warming periods in 1989, 1990, 1991, and 1995 show significant rapid changes which are correlated with observed higher air temperatures and snowmelt runoff. The snowmelt runoff entering this particular lake (Ryan Lake) has increased electrical conductivity, salinity, and density. The source of the salinity is the salt spread on urban streets in the winter. Heating of littoral waters in spring may also contribute to the occurrence of the sinking flows, but is clearly not the only cause.  相似文献   

10.
A method is developed for choosing 21st Century streamflow projections among widely varying results from a large ensemble of climate model-driven simulations. We quantify observed trends in climate–streamflow relationships in the Rio Grande headwaters, which has experienced warming temperature and declining snowpack since the mid-20th Century. Prominent trends in the snowmelt runoff season are used to assess corresponding statistics in downscaled global climate model projections. We define “Observationally Consistent (OC)” simulations as those that reproduce historical changes to linear statistics of diminished snowpack–streamflow coupling in the headwaters and an associated increase in the contribution of spring season (post-peak snowpack) precipitation to streamflow. Only a modest fraction of the ensemble of simulations meets these consistency metrics. The subset of OC simulations projects significant decreases in headwaters flow, whereas the simulations that poorly replicate historical trends exhibit a much wider range of projected changes. These results bolster confidence in model-based projections of declining runoff in the Rio Grande headwaters in the snowmelt runoff season and offer an example of a methodology for evaluating model-based projections in basins with similar hydroclimates that have experienced pronounced climate changes in the recent historical record.  相似文献   

11.
Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.  相似文献   

12.
Maurer, Edwin P., Levi D. Brekke, and Tom Pruitt, 2010. Contrasting Lumped and Distributed Hydrology Models for Estimating Climate Change Impacts on California Watersheds. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):1024–1035. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00473.x Abstract: We compare the projected changes to streamflows for three Sierra Nevada rivers using statistically downscaled output from 22 global climate projections. The downscaled meteorological data are used to drive two hydrology models: the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model and the variable infiltration capacity model. These two models differ in their spatial resolution, computational time step, and degree and objective of calibration, thus producing significantly different simulations of current and future streamflow. However, the projected percentage changes in monthly streamflows through mid-21st Century generally did not differ, with the exceptions of streamflow during low flow months, and extreme low flows. These findings suggest that for physically based hydrology models applied to snow-dominated basins in Mediterranean climate regimes like the Sierra Nevada, California, model formulation, resolution, and calibration are secondary factors for estimating projected changes in extreme flows (seasonal or daily). For low flows, hydrology model selection and calibration can be significant factors in assessing impacts of projected climate change.  相似文献   

13.
The Sierra Nevada produces over 50 percent of California's water. Improvement of water yields from the Sierra Nevada through watershed management has long been suggested as a means of augmenting the state's water supply. Vegetation and snowpack management can increase runoff from small watersheds by reducing losses due to evapotranspiration, snow interception by canopy, and snow evaporation. Small clearcuts or group selection cuts creating openings less than half a hectare, with the narrow dimension from south to north, appear to be ideal for both increasing and delaying water delivery in the red fir-lodgepole pine and mixed-conifer types of the Sierra west slope. Such openings can have up to 40 percent more snow-water equivalent than does uncut forest. However, the water yield increase drops to 1/2-2 percent of current yield for an entire management unit, due to the small number of openings that can be cut at one time, physical and management constraints, and multiple use/sustained yield guidelines. As a rough forecast, water production from National Forest land in the Sierra Nevada can probably be increased by about 1 percent (0.6 cm) under intensive forest watershed management. Given the state of reservoir storage and water use in California, delaying streamflow is perhaps the greatest contribution watershed management can make to meeting future water demands.  相似文献   

14.
ABSTRACT: Competition for water, concerns for maintaining ground water quality, and compliance with legislative action require quantification of the water resource for high elevation watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. However, meager hydroclimatic data frequently hinder runoff assessments needed for formulating water development policies, and the selection of watershed models for estimating the water resource is limited to those requiring a minimum of observational data. A climatic water budget model and an energy slope and aspect model are employed to estimate the water resource for a small watershed in Sierra Valley north of Lake Tahoe. The models employ different assumptions and computational procedures, but the total water available estimated by both models is very similar. Measured runoff is estimated satisfactorily by the models, but streamflow is not representative of the total water resource because a substantial portion of the available water enters the regional ground water system. This conclusion is supported by hydrologic and geochemical evidence, and ground water recharge is estimated to be at least as great as measured runoff during dry years and nearly twice as large during wet years.  相似文献   

15.
We discuss a recent paper which evaluated the hydrologic changes resulting from a pond‐and‐plug meadow restoration project in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. In the study, measurements of streamflow into and out of the meadow suggested late‐summer baseflow increased as much as five‐fold when compared with prerestoration conditions. However, the volume of streamflow attributed to the restored meadow (49,000–96,000 m3 over four months) would require that 2.5–4.8 m of saturated meadow soils drain during summer months. The groundwater data from this meadow record only 0.45 m of change over this timeframe, which is less than might be expected from plant use alone (0.75 m), suggesting this restored meadow may be acting as a water sink throughout summer rather than a source.  相似文献   

16.
ABSTRACT: Detailed studies of the surface hydrology of reclaimed surface-mined watersheds for both rainfall and snowmelt events are non-existent for central Alberta yet this information is crucial for design of runoff conveyance and storage structures. A study was initiated in 1992 with principal objectives of quantifying surface runoff for both summer rainfall and spring snowmelt events and identifying the dominant flow processes occurring in two reclaimed watersheds. Snowmelt accounted for 86 and 100% of annual watershed runoff in 1993 and 1994, respectively. The highest instantaneous peak flow was recorded during a summer rainfall event with a return period of greater than 50 years. Infiltration-excess overland flow was identified as the dominant flow process occurring within the Sandy Subsoil Watershed, whereas saturation overland flow was the principal runoff process occurring within the West Watershed.  相似文献   

17.
ABSTRACT: Grazing can have a profound impact on infiltration and thus runoff and erosion. The objectives of this study were to quantify the effects of select grazing systems on rainfall and snowmelt induced runoff and sediment yield from sloped areas of the foothills fescue grasslands of Alberta, Canada. The effects of two grazing intensities (heavy and very heavy) for two durations (short duration and continuous throughout the growing season) were compared to an ungrazed control between June 1988 and April 1991. Runoff was measured using 1-rn2 runoff frames and collection bucket systems. Sediment yields were then determined on samples from the collected runoff. Snowmelt was the dominant source of runoff. Snowmelt runoff was higher from the heavily grazed areas than from the very heavily grazed areas, due to the higher standing vegetation which accumulated snow in the former areas. Sediment yields as a result of snowmelt were generally low in all areas. Only a few summer storms caused runoff. Runoff volumes and sediment yields from summer rainstorms were low, due to low rainfall and to generally dry antecedent soil moisture conditions. The greatest risk of summer runoff, and thus sediment yield, appears to occur in August.  相似文献   

18.
ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.  相似文献   

19.
ABSTRACT: Precipitation and streamflow data from three nested subwatersheds within the Little Washita River Experimental Watershed (LWREW) in southwestern Oklahoma were used to evaluate the capabilities of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict streamflow under varying climatic conditions. Eight years of precipitation and streamflow data were used to calibrate parameters in the model, and 15 years of data were used for model validation. SWAT was calibrated on the smallest and largest sub‐watersheds for a wetter than average period of record. The model was then validated on a third subwatershed for a range in climatic conditions that included dry, average, and wet periods. Calibration of the model involved a multistep approach. A preliminary calibration was conducted to estimate model parameters so that measured versus simulated yearly and monthly runoff were in agreement for the respective calibration periods. Model parameters were then fine tuned based on a visual inspection of daily hydrographs and flow frequency curves. Calibration on a daily basis resulted in higher baseflows and lower peak runoff rates than were obtained in the preliminary calibration. Test results show that once the model was calibrated for wet climatic conditions, it did a good job in predicting streamflow responses over wet, average, and dry climatic conditions selected for model validation. Monthly coefficients of efficiencies were 0.65, 0.86, and 0.45 for the dry, average, and wet validation periods, respectively. Results of this investigation indicate that once calibrated, SWAT is capable of providing adequate simulations for hydrologic investigations related to the impact of climate variations on water resources of the LWREW.  相似文献   

20.
The Truckee River heads in the Sierra Nevada at Lake Tahoe, and terminates in Pyramid Lake. During the 1969 water year, flow about 9 miles upstream from the mouth (974,000 acre-ft) was almost four times the long-term average, due mainly to heavy winter rains and spring snowmelt. A short period of low-altitude rainfall produced the highest concentrations of suspended sediment, whereas a much longer subsequent period of snowmelt yielded a much greater total quantity of material. The upper 90 percent of the basin yielded about 260 acre-feet (630,000 tons) of sediment at the Nixon gage, whereas an estimated 2,800 acre-feet (6.8 million tons) was contributed by erosion of about 200 acres of river bank below the gage. Solute content at the gage ranged from 80 to 450 mg/l, dominated by calcium, sodium, and bicarbonate, plus silica in the most dilute snowmelt and chloride in the most concentrated low flows. Solute load totaled about 130,000 tons, of which the principal constituents in Pyramid Lake-sodium plus equivalent bicarbonate and chloride-amounted to almost 40,000 tons. The total solute load during a year of average flow may be 45,000-55,000 tons, including 18,000-22,000 tons of principal lake constituents.  相似文献   

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