Models,Assumptions, and Stakeholders: Planning for Water Supply Variability in the Colorado River Basin1

Abstract: Declining reservoir storage has raised the specter of the first water shortage on the Lower Colorado River since the completion of Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams. This focusing event spurred modeling efforts to frame alternatives for managing the reservoir system during prolonged droughts. This paper addresses the management challenges that arise when using modeling tools to manage water scarcity under variable hydroclimatology, shifting use patterns, and institutional complexity. Assumptions specified in modeling simulations are an integral feature of public processes. The policymaking and management implications of assumptions are examined by analyzing four interacting sources of physical and institutional uncertainty: inflow (runoff), depletion (water use), operating rules, and initial reservoir conditions. A review of planning documents and model reports generated during two recent processes to plan for surplus and shortage in the Colorado River demonstrates that modeling tools become useful to stakeholders by clarifying the impacts of modeling assumptions at several temporal and spatial scales. A high reservoir storage‐to‐runoff ratio elevates the importance of assumptions regarding initial reservoir conditions over the three‐year outlook used to assess the likelihood of reaching surplus and shortage triggers. An ensemble of initial condition predictions can provide more robust initial conditions estimates. This paper concludes that water managers require model outputs that encompass a full range of future potential outcomes, including best and worst cases. Further research into methods of representing and communicating about hydrologic and institutional uncertainty in model outputs will help water managers and other stakeholders to assess tradeoffs when planning for water supply variability.     

Spatial Distribution of Water Supply in the Coterminous United States1

Abstract: Available water supply across the contiguous 48 states was estimated as precipitation minus evapotranspiration using data for the period 1953‐1994. Precipitation estimates were taken from the Parameter‐Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Evapotranspiration was estimated using two models, the Advection‐Aridity model and the Zhang model. The evapotranspiration models were calibrated using precipitation and runoff data for 655 hydrologically undisturbed basins, and then tested using estimates of natural runoff for the 18 water resource regions (WRR) of the 48 contiguous states. The final water supply coverage reflects a mixture of outputs from the two evapotranspiration models. Political, administrative, and land cover boundaries were mapped over the coverage of mean annual water supply. Across the entire study area, we find that 53% of the water supply originates on forested land, which covers only 29% of the surface area, and that 24% originates on federal lands, including 18% on national forests and grasslands alone. Forests and federal lands are even more important in the West (the 11 western contiguous states), where 65% of the water supply originates on forested land and 66% on federal lands, with national forests and grasslands contributing 51%.     

拉萨河流域高寒湿地水质影响因子分析

西藏高寒湿地在生态平衡、生态建设和经济社会发展中发挥着重要作用。本文以西藏拉萨河流域内各个典型高寒湿地为研究对象,通过系统聚类法和综合污染指数法,对流域内各项水质指标进行综合分析和评价。结果表明：各个湿地的总N、Cu元素含量都超出了Ⅰ类水质标准;总P、Zn没有超标;Mn元素含量除了塘嘎郭湿地超标3倍外,其他均小于国家标准;Fe元素含量除了塘嘎郭湿地超标7倍外,其他均小于标准。总N、总P、pH值、Cu、Fe等因子对拉萨河流域内各个高寒湿地水质污染贡献最大。拉萨河水体有机污染较重,其余各个湿地有水体富营养化的趋势,同时流域内湿地独特的自然因素造成该流域内重金属污染偏高。对策建议包括应加大对城市污水的治理,加强流域内及周边矿藏资源的开发管理等。     

Integrated Modeling of Water Supply and Demand under Management Options and Climate Change Scenarios in Chifeng City,China

Water resource management is becoming increasingly challenging in northern China because of the rapid increase in water demand and decline in water supply due to climate change. We provide a case study demonstrating the importance of integrated watershed management in sustaining water resources in Chifeng City, northern China. We examine the consequences of various climate change scenarios and adaptive management options on water supply by integrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and Water Evaluation and Planning models. We show how integrated modeling is useful in projecting the likely effects of management options using limited information. Our study indicates that constructing more reservoirs can alleviate the current water shortage and groundwater depletion problems. However, this option is not necessarily the most effective measure to solve water supply problems; instead, improving irrigation efficiency and changing cropping structure may be more effective. Furthermore, measures to increase water supply have limited effects on water availability under a continuous drought and a dry‐and‐warm climate scenario. We conclude that the combined measure of reducing water demand and increasing supply is the most effective and practical solution for the water shortage problems in the study area.     

流域水体生态修复技术探讨

针对河道等自然流域的水体污染物进行生态治理,作者提出运用三个独立步骤而形成一道自然水体修复功能：第一步,优选良性微生物株群并持续发展与供给;第二步,运用河道功能增加水中的溶解氧;第三步,建立流域水体生物链,从而达到流域水体消纳污染物的自净效果。     

Impacts of Multiple Stresses on Water Demand and Supply Across the Southeastern United States1

Abstract: Assessment of long‐term impacts of projected changes in climate, population, and land use and land cover on regional water resource is critical to the sustainable development of the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to fully budget annual water availability for water supply (precipitation ? evapotranspiration + groundwater supply + return flow) and demand from commercial, domestic, industrial, irrigation, livestock, mining, and thermoelectric uses. The Water Supply Stress Index and Water Supply Stress Index Ratio were developed to evaluate water stress conditions over time and across the 666 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code basins in the 13 southeastern states. Predictions from two Global Circulation Models (CGC1 and HadCM2Sul), one land use change model, and one human population model, were integrated to project future water supply stress in 2020. We found that population increase greatly stressed water supply in metropolitan areas located in the Piedmont region and Florida. Predicted land use and land cover changes will have little effect on water quantity and water supply‐water demand relationship. In contrast, climate changes had the most pronounced effects on regional water supply and demand, especially in western Texas where water stress was historically highest in the study region. The simulation system developed by this study is useful for water resource planners to address water shortage problems such as those experienced during 2007 in the study region. Future studies should focus on refining the water supply term to include flow exchanges between watersheds and constraints of water quality and environmental flows to water availability for human use.     

新疆干旱区流域生态需水问题研究

通过对新疆平原区荒漠和绿洲两种生态系统的分析,特别是对天然绿洲生态系统中人工绿洲水资源利用方式及过程的分析,尝试性提出生态需水量在流域规划和水资源管理中的定位、不同生态系统的保护方式和基本生态水量的确定方式,并简述了新疆奎屯河流域以生态退水作为恢复流域生态水量的实例。     

Mason Valley Groundwater Model: Linking Surface Water and Groundwater in the Walker River Basin,Nevada1

Carroll, Rosemary W.H., Greg Pohll, David McGraw, Chris Garner, Anna Knust, Doug Boyle, Tim Minor, Scott Bassett, and Karl Pohlmann, 2010. Mason Valley Groundwater Model: Linking Surface Water and Groundwater in the Walker River Basin, Nevada. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):554-573. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00434.x Abstract: An integrated surface water and groundwater model of Mason Valley, Nevada is constructed to replicate the movement of water throughout the different components of the demand side of water resources in the Walker River system. The Mason Valley groundwater surface water model (MVGSM) couples the river/drain network with agricultural demand areas and the groundwater system using MODFLOW, MODFLOW’s streamflow routing package, as well as a surface water linking algorithm developed for the project. The MVGSM is capable of simulating complex feedback mechanisms between the groundwater and surface water system that is not dependent on linearity among the related variables. The spatial scale captures important hydrologic components while the monthly stress periods allow for seasonal evaluation. A simulation spanning an 11-year record shows the methodology is robust under diverse climatic conditions. The basin-wide modeling approach predicts a river system generally gaining during the summer irrigation period but losing during winter months and extended periods of drought. River losses to the groundwater system approach 25% of the river’s annual budget. Reducing diversions to hydrologic response units will increase river flows exiting the model domain, but also has the potential to increase losses from the river to groundwater storage.     

我国流域生态补偿研究进展

分析了流域生态补偿的概念和实施流域生态补偿应遵循的六大原则,从界定流域生态补偿主客体、甄选流域生态补偿的功能载体和确定补偿标准三方面详细阐述了如何实施流域生态补偿机制,并分析了该领域在我国现阶段的研究特点,明确提出今后的主要研究方向:流域生态补偿的量化研究、探寻流域生态补偿的法律依据和构建流域生态补偿管理体系。     

Management of Water Shortage in the Colorado River Basin: Evaluating Current Policy and the Viability of Interstate Water Trading1

Wildman, Richard A., Jr. and Noelani A. Forde, 2012. Management of Water Shortage in the Colorado River Basin: Evaluating Current Policy and the Viability of Interstate Water Trading. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 411-422. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2012.00665.x Abstract: The water of the Colorado River of the southwestern United States (U.S.) is presently used beyond its reliable supply, and the flow of this river is forecast to decrease significantly due to climate change. A recent interim report of the Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study is the first acknowledgment of these facts by U.S. federal water managers. In light of this new stance, we evaluate the current policy of adaptation to water shortages in the Colorado River Basin. We find that initial shortages will be borne only by the cities of Arizona and Nevada and farms in Arizona whereas the other Basin states have no incentive to reduce consumptive use. Furthermore, the development of a long-term plan is deferred until greater water scarcity exists. As a potential response to long-term water scarcity, we evaluate the viability of an interstate water market in the Colorado River Basin. We inform our analysis with newly available data from the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia, which has used interstate water trading to create vital flexibility during extreme aridity during recent years. We find that, despite substantial obstacles, an interstate water market is a compelling reform that could be used not only to adapt to increased water scarcity but also to preserve core elements of Colorado River Basin law.     

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Water Temperature Regimes on the Snoqualmie River Network

Although mean temperatures change annually and are highly correlated with elevation, the entire thermal regime on the Snoqualmie River, Washington, USA does not simply shift with elevation or season. Particular facets of the thermal regime have unique spatial patterns on the river network and at particular times of the year. We used a spatially and temporally dense temperature dataset to generate 13 temperature metrics representing popular summary measures (e.g., minimum, mean, or maximum temperature) and wavelet variances over each of seven time windows. Spatial stream‐network models which account for within‐network dependence were fit using three commonly used predictors of riverine thermal regime (elevation, mean annual discharge, and percent commercial area) to each temperature metric in each time window. Predictors were strongly related (r² > 0.6) to common summaries of the thermal regime but were less effective at describing other facets of the thermal regime. Relationships shifted with season and across facets. Summer mean temperatures decreased strongly with increasing elevation but this relationship was weaker for winter mean temperatures and winter minimum temperatures; it was reversed for mean daily range and there was no relationship between elevation and wavelet variances. We provide examples of how enriched information about the spatial and temporal complexities of natural thermal regimes can improve management and monitoring of aquatic resources.     

南四湖供用水管理机制的完善

南四湖的供用水管理尚存在诸多不完善之处,诸如供用水管理权限不清、用水纠纷、法治建设落后于实际需要、执法难等问题一直困扰着当地经济和社会的发展。采取完善法治、优化现有管理体制、改善行政执法条件等措施,将有利于完善南四湖供用水管理机制,有利于南四湖水资源的管理与利用,促进当地经济和社会的可持续发展。     

南盘江上游水质水量综合分析与管理

南盘江上游水污染严重、水资源短缺，而且缺水与污染相互影响．本文以社会经济和水资源这个复杂的耦合系统为研究对象，以促进社会经济持续发展、改善水质、合理利用有限的水资源为总目标，在水污染和水资源供需现状分析、趋势预测的基础上，从水质水量综合决策出发，探讨了南盘江上游水资源的管理对策．     

Estimating Crop Water Use via Remote Sensing Techniques vs. Conventional Methods in the South Platte River Basin,Colorado

We compared two methods of estimating crop water consumption to assess whether remote sensing techniques provide consumptive use (CU) estimates commensurate with conventional methods. Using available historical satellite and meteorological data, we applied Mapping EvapoTranspiration at high Resolution using Internalized Calibration (METRIC) to 317,455 ha in the South Platte basin, in northeastern Colorado, for the 2001 irrigation season. We then compared these derived CU estimates with values calculated by using the Colorado Water Conservation Board's South Platte Decision Support System StateCU model. Evaluating the data by irrigation ditch service area, we disaggregated the output to allow for comparison by service area size, crop type, irrigation method, water supply source, and water availability. We concluded that METRIC is a suitable alternative to StateCU in the South Platte basin and could help to identify areas with inhibited crop growth or deficit irrigation practices. In addition, METRIC could be used as a complement to StateCU to refine StateCU model parameters, allowing for more accurate estimates of crop water shortages and groundwater recharge associated with irrigation delivery and application.     

山东省流域水污染物综合排放标准

简要回顾了山东省水污染物排放标准体系建设的历程,重点分析了流域水污染物综合排放标准的特点,并对其实施绩效进行了简要评价,阐述了地方排放标准在促进"转方式、调结构",引导行业污染治理技术进步和环境质量改善等方面的作用,并给出了两点重要的启示。在落实科学发展观,推动"三个转变"的历史时期,地方排放标准是综合利用法律、经济、技术和必要的行政手段进行环境管理的有力抓手。     

Decreased Runoff Response to Precipitation,Little Missouri River Basin,Northern Great Plains,USA

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976‐2012 compared to 1939‐1975 (n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (<5%) in annual or growing season precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant (p < 0.10) 27% decrease in the annual runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface‐water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for <12% of the reduction in average annual flow volume, and we found no published or reported evidence of substantial flow reduction caused by groundwater pumping in this basin. Results of our analysis suggest that increases in monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, including >1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.     

A Level‐of‐Service Concept for Planning Future Water Supply Projects under Probabilistic Demand and Supply Framework

One of the most challenging tasks of water supply utilities is planning the timing and quantity of new water supply sources as demand for water consumption grows. Many water supply utilities target on meeting 100% of their customers' needs based on scenario‐based deterministic demand projections numbers even though there are uncertainties in both supply and demand values. This may result in under or overly conservative approach in assessing future needs. In this article, a level‐of‐service concept is introduced to capture a utility's willingness to accept a given level of risk, plan for it, and invoke a management strategy during extreme events than build a facility to accommodate those in planning for new water supply sources. Accounting for uncertainties in both supply and demand help quantify reliability by achieving a prescribed level of service. The major benefit of such an approach for planning future water supply is that it allows policy makers to evaluate the use of adaptive water management strategies and develop supply in an incremental fashion as demand warrants it. For example, if a given level of service cannot be reliably met with the existing system at a future time t, an incremental water supply project would come online to bring the required reliability level up but no more.     

Climatic Fluctuations and Forecasting of Streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin1

Abstract:  Water‐resource managers need to forecast streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin to plan for water‐resource projects and to operate reservoirs for water supply. Statistical forecasts of streamflow based on historical records of streamflow can be useful, but statistical assumptions, such as stationarity of flows, need to be evaluated. This study evaluated the relation between climatic fluctuations and stationarity and developed regression equations to forecast streamflow by using climatic fluctuations as explanatory variables. Climatic fluctuations were represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Historical streamflow within the 25‐ to 30‐year positive or negative phases of AMO or PDO was generally stationary. Monotonic trends in annual mean flows were tested at the 21 sites evaluated in this study; 76% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of AMO and 86% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of PDO. As climatic phases shifted in signs, however, many sites had nonstationary flows; 67% of the sites had significant changes in annual mean flow as AMO shifted in signs. The regression equations developed in this study to forecast streamflow incorporate these shifts in climate and streamflow, thus that source of nonstationarity is accounted for. The R² value of regression equations that forecast individual years of annual flow for the central part of the study area ranged from 0.28 to 0.49 and averaged 0.39. AMO was the most significant variable, and a combination of indices from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans explained much more variation in flows than only the Pacific Ocean indices. The average R² value for equations with PDO and SOI was 0.15.     

国土空间规划视角下流域水环境改善潜力——以长春市第二松花江流域为例

国土空间规划对新时期流域水环境保护意义重大。本文结合国土空间规划对流域水环境影响的全过程(污染产生—污染排放—污染入河)机制,构建了国土空间规划视角下流域水环境变化评估指标体系和框架。以长春市第二松花江流域为例,利用系统动力学模型和一维水动力模型QUAL2K量化了国土空间规划对流域水环境的影响。结果表明,到国土空间规划近期目标年(2025年),流域水环境状况良好,体现为流域大部分河段COD和NH₃-N达标,水环境容量最小为44.96 kg/d和5.10 kg/d。国土空间规划中的总量目标、环保设施建设和相关布局的实施将会使COD和NH₃-N污染产生量降低52.61%和14.16%;污染排放量降低26.45%和59.09%;水环境容量增加10.68%和57.17%。总体而言,国土空间规划对流域水环境改善潜力巨大,同时改善潜力因不同区域、污染源、污染物而异。本研究提出的评估框架为国土空间规划背景下流域水环境保护提供了思路。