Models,Assumptions, and Stakeholders: Planning for Water Supply Variability in the Colorado River Basin1

Abstract: Declining reservoir storage has raised the specter of the first water shortage on the Lower Colorado River since the completion of Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams. This focusing event spurred modeling efforts to frame alternatives for managing the reservoir system during prolonged droughts. This paper addresses the management challenges that arise when using modeling tools to manage water scarcity under variable hydroclimatology, shifting use patterns, and institutional complexity. Assumptions specified in modeling simulations are an integral feature of public processes. The policymaking and management implications of assumptions are examined by analyzing four interacting sources of physical and institutional uncertainty: inflow (runoff), depletion (water use), operating rules, and initial reservoir conditions. A review of planning documents and model reports generated during two recent processes to plan for surplus and shortage in the Colorado River demonstrates that modeling tools become useful to stakeholders by clarifying the impacts of modeling assumptions at several temporal and spatial scales. A high reservoir storage‐to‐runoff ratio elevates the importance of assumptions regarding initial reservoir conditions over the three‐year outlook used to assess the likelihood of reaching surplus and shortage triggers. An ensemble of initial condition predictions can provide more robust initial conditions estimates. This paper concludes that water managers require model outputs that encompass a full range of future potential outcomes, including best and worst cases. Further research into methods of representing and communicating about hydrologic and institutional uncertainty in model outputs will help water managers and other stakeholders to assess tradeoffs when planning for water supply variability.     

Spatial Distribution of Water Supply in the Coterminous United States1

Abstract: Available water supply across the contiguous 48 states was estimated as precipitation minus evapotranspiration using data for the period 1953‐1994. Precipitation estimates were taken from the Parameter‐Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Evapotranspiration was estimated using two models, the Advection‐Aridity model and the Zhang model. The evapotranspiration models were calibrated using precipitation and runoff data for 655 hydrologically undisturbed basins, and then tested using estimates of natural runoff for the 18 water resource regions (WRR) of the 48 contiguous states. The final water supply coverage reflects a mixture of outputs from the two evapotranspiration models. Political, administrative, and land cover boundaries were mapped over the coverage of mean annual water supply. Across the entire study area, we find that 53% of the water supply originates on forested land, which covers only 29% of the surface area, and that 24% originates on federal lands, including 18% on national forests and grasslands alone. Forests and federal lands are even more important in the West (the 11 western contiguous states), where 65% of the water supply originates on forested land and 66% on federal lands, with national forests and grasslands contributing 51%.     

拉萨河流域高寒湿地水质影响因子分析

西藏高寒湿地在生态平衡、生态建设和经济社会发展中发挥着重要作用。本文以西藏拉萨河流域内各个典型高寒湿地为研究对象,通过系统聚类法和综合污染指数法,对流域内各项水质指标进行综合分析和评价。结果表明：各个湿地的总N、Cu元素含量都超出了Ⅰ类水质标准;总P、Zn没有超标;Mn元素含量除了塘嘎郭湿地超标3倍外,其他均小于国家标准;Fe元素含量除了塘嘎郭湿地超标7倍外,其他均小于标准。总N、总P、pH值、Cu、Fe等因子对拉萨河流域内各个高寒湿地水质污染贡献最大。拉萨河水体有机污染较重,其余各个湿地有水体富营养化的趋势,同时流域内湿地独特的自然因素造成该流域内重金属污染偏高。对策建议包括应加大对城市污水的治理,加强流域内及周边矿藏资源的开发管理等。     

流域水体生态修复技术探讨

针对河道等自然流域的水体污染物进行生态治理,作者提出运用三个独立步骤而形成一道自然水体修复功能：第一步,优选良性微生物株群并持续发展与供给;第二步,运用河道功能增加水中的溶解氧;第三步,建立流域水体生物链,从而达到流域水体消纳污染物的自净效果。     

新疆干旱区流域生态需水问题研究

通过对新疆平原区荒漠和绿洲两种生态系统的分析,特别是对天然绿洲生态系统中人工绿洲水资源利用方式及过程的分析,尝试性提出生态需水量在流域规划和水资源管理中的定位、不同生态系统的保护方式和基本生态水量的确定方式,并简述了新疆奎屯河流域以生态退水作为恢复流域生态水量的实例。     

Impacts of Multiple Stresses on Water Demand and Supply Across the Southeastern United States1

Abstract: Assessment of long‐term impacts of projected changes in climate, population, and land use and land cover on regional water resource is critical to the sustainable development of the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to fully budget annual water availability for water supply (precipitation ? evapotranspiration + groundwater supply + return flow) and demand from commercial, domestic, industrial, irrigation, livestock, mining, and thermoelectric uses. The Water Supply Stress Index and Water Supply Stress Index Ratio were developed to evaluate water stress conditions over time and across the 666 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code basins in the 13 southeastern states. Predictions from two Global Circulation Models (CGC1 and HadCM2Sul), one land use change model, and one human population model, were integrated to project future water supply stress in 2020. We found that population increase greatly stressed water supply in metropolitan areas located in the Piedmont region and Florida. Predicted land use and land cover changes will have little effect on water quantity and water supply‐water demand relationship. In contrast, climate changes had the most pronounced effects on regional water supply and demand, especially in western Texas where water stress was historically highest in the study region. The simulation system developed by this study is useful for water resource planners to address water shortage problems such as those experienced during 2007 in the study region. Future studies should focus on refining the water supply term to include flow exchanges between watersheds and constraints of water quality and environmental flows to water availability for human use.     

Mason Valley Groundwater Model: Linking Surface Water and Groundwater in the Walker River Basin,Nevada1

Carroll, Rosemary W.H., Greg Pohll, David McGraw, Chris Garner, Anna Knust, Doug Boyle, Tim Minor, Scott Bassett, and Karl Pohlmann, 2010. Mason Valley Groundwater Model: Linking Surface Water and Groundwater in the Walker River Basin, Nevada. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):554-573. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00434.x Abstract: An integrated surface water and groundwater model of Mason Valley, Nevada is constructed to replicate the movement of water throughout the different components of the demand side of water resources in the Walker River system. The Mason Valley groundwater surface water model (MVGSM) couples the river/drain network with agricultural demand areas and the groundwater system using MODFLOW, MODFLOW’s streamflow routing package, as well as a surface water linking algorithm developed for the project. The MVGSM is capable of simulating complex feedback mechanisms between the groundwater and surface water system that is not dependent on linearity among the related variables. The spatial scale captures important hydrologic components while the monthly stress periods allow for seasonal evaluation. A simulation spanning an 11-year record shows the methodology is robust under diverse climatic conditions. The basin-wide modeling approach predicts a river system generally gaining during the summer irrigation period but losing during winter months and extended periods of drought. River losses to the groundwater system approach 25% of the river’s annual budget. Reducing diversions to hydrologic response units will increase river flows exiting the model domain, but also has the potential to increase losses from the river to groundwater storage.     

南盘江上游水质水量综合分析与管理

南盘江上游水污染严重、水资源短缺，而且缺水与污染相互影响．本文以社会经济和水资源这个复杂的耦合系统为研究对象，以促进社会经济持续发展、改善水质、合理利用有限的水资源为总目标，在水污染和水资源供需现状分析、趋势预测的基础上，从水质水量综合决策出发，探讨了南盘江上游水资源的管理对策．     

玛纳斯河流域生态系统服务功能价值研究

土地利用/覆被变化是生态环境演变最重要的因素之一,其研究对于促进区域生态经济协调发展有重要意义。根据1976年和2006年玛纳斯河流域两期遥感影像资料,基于生态经济学的最新方法采用卫星遥感技术以及Costanza等的生态系统服务价值评价手段,对期间玛纳斯河流域生态服务系统服务功能价值变化进行分析研究。结果表明:①玛纳斯流域土地利用结构变化在30年间表现为草地、林地、不断减少,而耕地、水域、沙地和建设用地不断增加,反映出人类因素及生态环境恶化的趋势;②该流域生态系统服务功能价值总额由1976年123.831 08元减少至2006年101.521 08元。减幅:18.02%,年均减少0.741 08元,通过对玛纳斯河流域生态系统服务功能价值进行评价,为玛纳斯河流域生态开发和治理,以及环境整治提供决策依据。     

Climatic Fluctuations and Forecasting of Streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin1

Abstract:  Water‐resource managers need to forecast streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin to plan for water‐resource projects and to operate reservoirs for water supply. Statistical forecasts of streamflow based on historical records of streamflow can be useful, but statistical assumptions, such as stationarity of flows, need to be evaluated. This study evaluated the relation between climatic fluctuations and stationarity and developed regression equations to forecast streamflow by using climatic fluctuations as explanatory variables. Climatic fluctuations were represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Historical streamflow within the 25‐ to 30‐year positive or negative phases of AMO or PDO was generally stationary. Monotonic trends in annual mean flows were tested at the 21 sites evaluated in this study; 76% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of AMO and 86% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of PDO. As climatic phases shifted in signs, however, many sites had nonstationary flows; 67% of the sites had significant changes in annual mean flow as AMO shifted in signs. The regression equations developed in this study to forecast streamflow incorporate these shifts in climate and streamflow, thus that source of nonstationarity is accounted for. The R² value of regression equations that forecast individual years of annual flow for the central part of the study area ranged from 0.28 to 0.49 and averaged 0.39. AMO was the most significant variable, and a combination of indices from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans explained much more variation in flows than only the Pacific Ocean indices. The average R² value for equations with PDO and SOI was 0.15.     

嘉陵江下游饮用水氟化物时空变异特征研究

饮用水中可溶性氟化物是公众摄入氟的主要途径,其含量水平影响人体健康.分别于2015～2017年的丰水期和枯水期6次随机采集监测了嘉陵江下游52个饮用水样中氟化物含量,并基于地理信息系统平台和健康风险指数法进行了评价.结果表明,该区域饮用水中氟化物浓度平均为0.20～0.25 mg/L.除2015年部分样点外,其余样点的...     

玛纳斯河水质参数时空变化规律与趋势分析

干旱区水环境质量的好坏直接决定着绿洲经济建设的水平.通过对玛纳斯河15年来的水质监测资料的分析、研究,从中寻找出该流域的地表及地下水质变化规律与发展趋势.研究结果表明：玛河径流形成区及山前倾斜平原区水质一直保持在一级未受污染级别;山前倾斜平原区地下水中挥发酚以及氮素含量逐年上升,但总体水质仍然保持在一级未受污染级别的范围.     

Floristic Characteristics and Biodiversity Patterns in the Baishuijiang River Basin,China

A case study was conducted on the forest ecosystem in the Baishuijiang River basin of China to reveal the influences of environmental factors and human disturbance on the floristic characteristics and biodiversity patterns. Field surveys of the floristic composition, environmental factors, and disturbance factors were conducted along an elevation gradient, and the relationships between biodiversity pattern and environmental factors were analyzed using CCA (canonical correspondence analysis). The results showed that the floristic composition of higher plants consisted of 197 families, 796 genera, 2165 species, 19 subspecies, 239 varietas, and 12 forma, and it was characterized by the multi-geographic composition and by the transition from tropical to temperate zones. Along an elevation gradient, the variations in α and β diversity were best described by a bimodal curve, and the peak values occurred at middle elevations. The CCA indicated that the elevation had the greatest influence on the biodiversity pattern, followed by the topographic index, slope direction, slope, slope position, slope shape, and vegetation coverage. In addition, human disturbance has greatly impacted the floristic composition and biodiversity patterns, and the biodiversity indices were higher with intermediate disturbance at middle elevations compared to higher and lower disturbances at low and high elevations, respectively. This reflected a disturbance–diversity pattern and thus revealed the obvious importance to maintain the intermediate disturbance for biodiversity conservation.     

Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data1

Nishat, Bushra and S.M. Mahbubur Rahman, 2009. Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1313‐1327. Abstract: Large‐scale water resources modeling can provide useful insights on future water availability scenarios for downstream nations in anticipation of proposed upstream water resources projects in large international river basins (IRBs). However, model set up can be challenging due to the large amounts of data requirement on both static states (soils, vegetation, topography, drainage network, etc.) and dynamic variables (rainfall, streamflow, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, etc.) over the basin from multiple nations and data collection agencies. Under such circumstances, satellite remote sensing provides a more pragmatic and convenient alternative because of the vantage of space and easy availability from a single data platform. In this paper, we demonstrate a modeling effort to set up a water resources management model, MIKE BASIN, over the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) river basins. The model is set up with the objective of providing Bangladesh, the lowermost riparian nation in the GBM basins, a framework for assessing proposed water diversion scenarios in the upstream transboundary regions of India and deriving quantitative impacts on water availability. Using an array of satellite remote sensing data on topography, vegetation, and rainfall from the transboundary regions, we demonstrate that it is possible to calibrate MIKE BASIN to a satisfactory level and predict streamflow in the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers at the entry points of Bangladesh at relevant scales of water resources management. Simulated runoff for the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers follow the trends in the rated discharge for the calibration period. However, monthly flow volume differs from the actual rated flow by (?) 8% to (+) 20% in the Ganges basin, by (?) 15 to (+) 12% in the Brahmaputra basin, and by (?) 15 to (+) 19% in the Meghna basin. Our large‐scale modeling initiative is generic enough for other downstream nations in IRBs to adopt for their own modeling needs.     

Effects of Urban Spatial Structure,Sociodemographics, and Climate on Residential Water Consumption in Hillsboro,Oregon1

House-Peters, Lily, Bethany Pratt, and Heejun Chang, 2010. Effects of Urban Spatial Structure, Sociodemographics, and Climate on Residential Water Consumption in Hillsboro, Oregon. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):461-472. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00415.x Abstract: In the Portland metropolitan area, suburban growth in cities such as Hillsboro is projected to increase as people seek affordable housing near a burgeoning metropolis. The most significant determinants for increases in water demand are population growth, climate change, and the type of urban development that occurs. This study analyzes the spatial patterns of single family residential (SFR) water consumption in Hillsboro, Oregon, at the census block scale. The following research questions are addressed: (1) What are the significant determinants of SFR water consumption in Hillsboro, Oregon? (2) Is SFR water demand sensitive to drought conditions and interannual climate variation? (3) To what magnitude do particular census blocks react to drought conditions and interannual climate variation? Using ordinary least squares multiple regression and spatial regression methods, we found that base use, representing indoor water use, is dependent on household size and that seasonal use, representing external water use is dependent on both education level and the size of the property’s outdoor space. Spatial analysis techniques determined that although the water demand of the study area as a whole is not sensitive to drought conditions, certain individual census blocks do respond with a higher magnitude of water use. The most climate-sensitive census blocks tend to contain newer and larger homes, and have higher property values and more affluent and well-educated residents.     

中国流域水资源生态补偿的法律问题与对策

随着我国经济社会的不断发展,水资源不足和水质污染引起的水危机已经成为许多地区可持续发展中的重要制约因素。在这种背景下,为了平衡环境、社会和经济多元利益,寻求先进的法律机制来调节平衡、保护流域生态环境、促进流域的可持续发展已成为一种共识。开展流域水资源生态补偿是实现流域上下游之间等相关方利益公平的关键所在。但由于我国缺乏生态补偿立法和相应的制度安排,流域水资源生态补偿目前仍面临许多问题：我国流域水资源生态补偿进展缓慢、法律制度滞后、部分法律法规彼此之间矛盾和相互冲突、流域水资源生态补偿的法律制度缺位、立法模式不适合当今流域生态环境问题解决等。本文通过对我国有关涉水法律中存在问题的分析,提出一些有关流域水资源生态补偿法律制度建设和完善的对策,以期对中国流域水资源生态补偿的推进和进一步实现水资源的可持续利用有所帮助。     

Simulated Impacts of Three Decadal Climate Variability Phenomena on Water Yields in the Missouri River Basin1

Mehta, Vikram M., Norman J. Rosenberg, and Katherin Mendoza, 2011. Simulated Impacts of Three Decadal Climate Variability Phenomena on Water Yields in the Missouri River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):126‐135. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00496.x Abstract: The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in the United States (U.S.), and is one of the most important crop and livestock‐producing regions in the world. In a previous study of associations between decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena and hydro‐meteorological (HM) variability in the MRB, it was found that positive and negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic sea‐surface temperature gradient variability (TAG), and the west Pacific warm pool (WPWP) temperature variability were significantly associated with decadal variability in precipitation and 2‐meter air temperature in the MRB, with combinations of various phases of these DCV phenomena associated with drought, flood, or neutral HM conditions. Here, we report on a methodology developed and applied to assess whether the aforementioned DCVs directly affect the hydrology of the MRB. The Hydrologic Unit Model of the U.S. (HUMUS) was used to simulate water yields in response to realistic values of the PDO, TAG, and WPWP at 75 widely distributed, eight‐digit hydrologic unit areas within the MRB. HUMUS driven by HM anomalies in both the positive and negative phases of the PDO and TAG resulted in major impacts on water yields, as much as ±20% of average water yield in some locations. Impacts of the WPWP were smaller. The combined and cumulative effects of these DCV phenomena on the MRB HM and water availability can be dramatic with important consequences for the MRB.     

生物预处理与城市分质供水

利用生物预处理工艺提高城市供水水质,大力发展城市分质供水,实现城市直饮水,是我国新世纪城市化进程及环保产业发展的趋势。本文论述了生物预处理的意义、工艺、效果、影响及其在城市供水中的意义。介绍了分质供水在国内外的发展,探讨了生物预处理与分质供水在城市中的应用及发展前景。     

Effect of Land-Use Patterns on Total Nitrogen Concentration in the Upstream Regions of the Haihe River Basin, China

Nutrient loading into rivers is generally increased by human-induced land-use changes and can lead to increased surface water pollution. Understanding the extent to which land-use patterns influence nutrient loading is critical to the development of best-management practices aimed at water-quality improvement. In this study, we investigated total nitrogen (total N) concentration as a function of land-use patterns and compared the relative significance of the identified land-use variables for 26 upstream watersheds of the Haihe River basin. Seven land-use intensity and nine landscape complexity variables were selected to form the land-use pattern metrics on the landscape scale. After analyzing the significance of the land-use pattern metrics, we obtained five dominant principal components: human-induced land-use intensity, landscape patch-area complexity, area-weighted landscape patch-shape complexity, forest and grassland area, and landscape patch-shape complexity. A linear regression model with a stepwise selection protocol was used to identify an optimal set of land-use pattern predictors. The resulting contributions to the total N concentration were 50% (human-induced land-use intensity), 23.13% (landscape patch-shape complexity), 14.38% (forest and grassland area), and 12.50% (landscape patch-area complexity), respectively. The regression model using land-use measurements can explain 87% of total N variability in the upstream regions of Haihe River. The results indicated that human-related land-use factors, such as residential areas, population, and road density, had the most significant effect on N concentration. The agricultural area (30.1% of the study region) was not found to be significantly correlated with total N concentration due to little irrigative farmland and rainfall. Results of the study could help us understand the implications of potential land-use changes that often occur as a result of the rapid development in China.