Reconstructed Streamflows for the Headwaters of the Wind River,Wyoming, United States1

Abstract: Tree rings offer a means to extend observational records of streamflow by hundreds of years, but dendrohydrological techniques are not regularly applied to small tributary and headwaters gages. Here we explore the potential for extending three such gage records on small streams in the Wind River drainage of central Wyoming, United States. Using core samples taken from Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), piñon pine (Pinus edulis), and limber pine (Pinus flexilis) at 38 sites, we were able to reconstruct streamflows for the headwaters of the Wind River back to 1672 AD or earlier. The streamflow reconstructions for Bull Lake Creek above Bull Lake; the Little Popo Agie River near Lander, Wyoming; and Wind River near Dubois, Wyoming explained between 40% and 64% of the observed variance, and these extended records performed well in a variety of statistical verification tests. The full reconstructions show pronounced inter‐annual variability in streamflow, and these proxy records also point to the prevalence of severe, sustained droughts in this region. These reconstructions indicate that the 20th Century was relatively wet compared to previous centuries, and actual gage records may capture only a limited subset of potential natural variability in this area. Further analyses reveal how tree‐ring based reconstructions for small tributary and headwaters gages can be strongly influenced by the length and quality of calibration records, but this work also demonstrates how the use of a spatially extensive network of tree‐ring sites can improve the quality of these types of reconstructions.     

Spatiotemporal Variability of Snow Depletion Curves Derived from SNODAS for the Conterminous United States, 2004‐2013

Assessment of water resources at a national scale is critical for understanding their vulnerability to future change in policy and climate. Representation of the spatiotemporal variability in snowmelt processes in continental‐scale hydrologic models is critical for assessment of water resource response to continued climate change. Continental‐extent hydrologic models such as the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model (NHM) represent snowmelt processes through the application of snow depletion curves (SDCs). SDCs relate normalized snow water equivalent (SWE) to normalized snow covered area (SCA) over a snowmelt season for a given modeling unit. SDCs were derived using output from the operational Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) snow model as daily 1‐km gridded SWE over the conterminous United States. Daily SNODAS output were aggregated to a predefined watershed‐scale geospatial fabric and used to also calculate SCA from October 1, 2004 to September 30, 2013. The spatiotemporal variability in SNODAS output at the watershed scale was evaluated through the spatial distribution of the median and standard deviation for the time period. Representative SDCs for each watershed‐scale modeling unit over the conterminous United States (n = 54,104) were selected using a consistent methodology and used to create categories of snowmelt based on SDC shape. The relation of SDC categories to the topographic and climatic variables allow for national‐scale categorization of snowmelt processes.     

Trends in Pesticide Concentrations in Streamsof the Western United States, 1993‐20051

Johnson, Henry M., Joseph L. Domagalski, and Dina K. Saleh, 2010. Trends in Pesticide Concentrations in Streams of the Western United States, 1993‐2005. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 00(0):1‐22. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00507.x Abstract: Trends in pesticide concentrations for 15 streams in California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho were determined for the organophosphate insecticides chlorpyrifos and diazinon and the herbicides atrazine, s‐ethyl diproplythiocarbamate (EPTC), metolachlor, simazine, and trifluralin. A parametric regression model was used to account for flow, seasonality, and antecedent hydrologic conditions and thereby estimate trends in pesticide concentrations in streams arising from changes in use amount and application method in their associated catchments. Decreasing trends most often were observed for diazinon, and reflect the shift to alternative pesticides by farmers, commercial applicators, and homeowners because of use restrictions and product cancelation. Consistent trends were observed for several herbicides, including upward trends in simazine at urban‐influenced sites from 2000 to 2005, and downward trends in atrazine and EPTC at agricultural sites from the mid‐1990s to 2005. The model provided additional information about pesticide occurrence and transport in the modeled streams. Two examples are presented and briefly discussed: (1) timing of peak concentrations for individual compounds varied greatly across this geographic gradient because of different application periods and the effects of local rain patterns, irrigation, and soil drainage and (2) reconstructions of continuous diazinon concentrations at sites in California are used to evaluate compliance with total maximum daily load targets.     

Spatiotemporal Variability of Modeled Watershed Scale Surface‐Depression Storage and Runoff for the Conterminous United States

This study explores the viability of using simulated monthly runoff as a proxy for landscape‐scale surface‐depression storage processes simulated by the United States Geological Survey’s National Hydrologic Model (NHM) infrastructure across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Two different temporal resolution model codes (daily and monthly) were run in the NHM with the same spatial discretization. Simulated values of daily surface‐depression storage (treated as a decimal fraction of maximum volume) as computed by the daily Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System (NHM‐PRMS) and normalized runoff (0 to 1) as computed by the Monthly Water Balance Model (NHM‐MWBM) were aggregated to monthly and annual values for each hydrologic response unit (HRU) in the CONUS geospatial fabric (HRU; n = 109,951) and analyzed using Spearman’s rank correlation test. Correlations between simulated runoff and surface‐depression storage aggregated to monthly and annual values were compared to identify where which time scale had relatively higher correlation values across the CONUS. Results show Spearman’s rank values >0.75 (highly correlated) for the monthly time scale in 28,279 HRUs (53.35%) compared to the annual time scale in 41,655 HRUs (78.58%). The geographic distribution of HRUs with highly correlated monthly values show areas where surface‐depression storage features are known to be common (e.g., Prairie Pothole Region, Florida).     

Variability and Trends in Runoff Efficiency in the Conterminous United States

Variability and trends in water‐year runoff efficiency (RE) — computed as the ratio of water‐year runoff (streamflow per unit area) to water‐year precipitation — in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are examined for the 1951 through 2012 period. Changes in RE are analyzed using runoff and precipitation data aggregated to United States Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic cataloging units (HUs). Results indicate increases in RE for some regions in the north‐central CONUS and large decreases in RE for the south‐central CONUS. The increases in RE in the north‐central CONUS are explained by trends in climate, whereas the large decreases in RE in the south‐central CONUS likely are related to groundwater withdrawals from the Ogallala aquifer to support irrigated agriculture.     

Influences on Wood Load in Mountain Streams of the Bighorn National Forest,Wyoming, USA

We documented valley and channel characteristics and wood loads in 19 reaches of forested headwater mountain streams in the Bighorn National Forest of northern Wyoming. Ten of these reaches were in the Upper Tongue River watershed, which has a history of management including timber harvest, tie floating, and road construction. Nine reaches were in the North Rock Creek watershed, which has little history of management activities. We used these data to test hypotheses that (i) valley geometry correlates with wood load, (ii) stream gradient correlates with wood load, and (iii) wood loads are significantly lower in managed watersheds than in otherwise similar unmanaged watersheds. Statistical analyses of the data support the first and third hypotheses. Stream reaches with steeper valley side slopes tend to have higher wood loads, and reaches in managed watersheds tend to have lower wood loads than reaches in unmanaged watersheds. Results do not support the second hypothesis. Shear stress correlated more strongly with wood load than did stream gradient, but statistical models with valley-scale variables had greater explanatory power than statistical models with channel-scale variables. Wood loads in stream reaches within managed watersheds in the Bighorn National Forest tend to be two to three times lower than wood loads in unmanaged watersheds.     

Surface‐Water Nutrient Conditions and Sources in the United States Pacific Northwest1

Wise, Daniel R. and Henry M. Johnson, 2011. Surface‐Water Nutrient Conditions and Sources in the United States Pacific Northwest. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1110‐1135. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00580.x Abstract: The SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model was used to perform an assessment of surface‐water nutrient conditions and to identify important nutrient sources in watersheds of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (U.S.) for the year 2002. Our models included variables representing nutrient sources as well as landscape characteristics that affect nutrient delivery to streams. Annual nutrient yields were higher in watersheds on the wetter, west side of the Cascade Range compared to watersheds on the drier, east side. High nutrient enrichment (relative to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s recommended nutrient criteria) was estimated in watersheds throughout the region. Forest land was generally the largest source of total nitrogen stream load and geologic material was generally the largest source of total phosphorus stream load generated within the 12,039 modeled watersheds. These results reflected the prevalence of these two natural sources and the low input from other nutrient sources across the region. However, the combined input from agriculture, point sources, and developed land, rather than natural nutrient sources, was responsible for most of the nutrient load discharged from many of the largest watersheds. Our results provided an understanding of the regional patterns in surface‐water nutrient conditions and should be useful to environmental managers in future water‐quality planning efforts.     

Streamflow Changes in the South Atlantic,United States During the Mid‐ and Late 20th Century1

Abstract: Repeated severe droughts over the last decade in the South Atlantic have raised concern that streamflow may be systematically decreasing, possibly due to climate variability. We examined the monthly and annual trends of streamflow, precipitation, and temperature in the South Atlantic for the time periods: 1934‐2005, 1934‐1969, and 1970‐2005. Streamflow and climate (temperature and precipitation) trends transitioned ca. 1970. From 1934 to 1969, streamflow and precipitation increased in southern regions and decreased in northern regions; temperature decreased throughout the South Atlantic. From 1970 to 2005, streamflow decreased, precipitation decreased, and temperature increased throughout the South Atlantic. It is unclear whether these will be continuing trends or simply part of a long‐term climatic oscillation. Whether these streamflow trends have been driven by climatic or anthropogenic changes, water resources management faces challenging prospects to adapt to decadal‐scale persistently wet and dry hydrologic conditions.     

Wind‐Powered Desalination: An Estimate of Saline Groundwater in the United States1

James Androwski, Abraham Springer, Thomas Acker, and Mark Manone, 2011. Wind‐Powered Desalination: An Estimate of Saline Groundwater in the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):93‐102. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00493.x Abstract: Increasing scarcity of freshwater resources in many regions of the world is leading water resource managers to consider desalination as a potential alternative to traditional freshwater supplies. Desalination technologies are energy intensive and expensive to implement making desalination using renewable energy resources a potentially attractive option. Unfortunately, saline groundwater resources are not well characterized for many regions hindering consideration of such technologies. In this assessment, we estimate the saline groundwater resources of the principal aquifers of the United States using a geographic information system and correlate these resources to wind resources potentially sufficient to supply the energy demand of desalination equipment. We estimate that 3.1 × 10¹⁴ m³ saline groundwater, total volume, are contained in 28 of the country’s principal aquifers known to contain saline groundwater. Of this volume, 1.4 × 10¹⁴ m³ saline groundwater are co‐located with wind resources sufficient for electrical generation to desalinate groundwater.     

The 2007‐2009 Drought in Athens,Georgia, United States: A Climatological Analysis and an Assessment of Future Water Availability1

Campana, Pete, John Knox, Andrew Grundstein, and John Dowd, 2012. The 2007‐2009 Drought in Athens, Georgia, United States: A Climatological Analysis and an Assessment of Future Water Availability. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 379‐390. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00619.x Abstract: Population growth and development in many regions of the world increase the demand for water and vulnerability to water shortages. Our research provides a case study of how population growth can augment the severity of a drought. During 2007‐2009, a drought event that caused extreme societal impacts occurred in the Athens, Georgia region (defined as Clarke, Barrow, Oconee, and Jackson counties). An examination of drought indices and precipitation records indicates that conditions were severe, but not worse than during the 1925‐1927, 1954‐1956, and 1985‐1987 drought events. A drought of similar length to the 2007‐2009 drought would be expected to occur approximately every 25 years. Streamflow analysis shows that discharge levels in area streams were at a record low during 2007 before water restrictions were implemented, because of greater water usage caused by recent population increases. These population increases, combined with a lack of water conservation, led to severe water shortages in the Athens region during late 2007. Only after per capita usage decreased did water resources last despite continuing drought conditions through 2009. Retaining mitigation strategies and withdrawal levels such as seen during the height of the drought will be an essential strategy to prevent water shortages during future extreme drought events. The key mitigation strategy, independent local action to restrict water use in advance of state‐level restrictions, is now prohibited by Georgia State Law.     

Hydrologic and Morphologic Variability of Streams With Different Cranberry Agriculture Histories,Southern New Jersey,United States1

Procopio, Nicholas A., 2010. Hydrologic and Morphologic Variability of Streams With Different Cranberry Agriculture Histories, Southern New Jersey, United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):527-540. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00432.x Abstract: The creation of reservoirs and the modification of stream channels are common practices used to facilitate the efficient production of cranberries. The potential impacts to hydrologic and geomorphic aspects of streamflow and channel structure have not been adequately assessed. In this study, the streamflow regime of 12 streams and the channel morphologies of 11 streams were compared for study sites in the Pinelands region of New Jersey with upstream active-cranberry bogs, upstream abandoned-cranberry bogs, and basins with no apparent agricultural history. Flow regime metrics included measures of low-flow, median-flow, and bankfull discharge, two measures of streamflow variability (spread and a modified Richards-Baker Flashiness index), and the frequency of overbank flooding. Stream-channel morphology metrics included average bank slope, average bankfull width, average bankfull depth, average bankfull width-to-depth ratio, and average bankfull area. No significant differences between stream types were apparent for any of the metrics. Basin-area normalized streamflow values of all 12 study sites were highly correlated to each other. Significant relationships existed between some of the flow-regime and channel-morphology metrics. Due to the lack of significant differences between stream types, it appears that neither historic nor current cranberry agricultural practices considerably influence flow regimes or the channel morphology of streams in the New Jersey Pinelands.     

Estimating Water Budgets and Vertical Leakages for Karst Lakes in North‐Central Florida (United States) Via Hydrological Modeling1

Lin, Zhulu, 2011. Estimating Water Budgets and Vertical Leakages for Karst Lakes in North‐Central Florida (United States) Via Hydrological Modeling. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐16. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00513.x Abstract: Newnans, Lochloosa, and Orange Lakes are closely hydrologically connected karst lakes located in north‐central Florida, United States. The complex karst hydrology in this region poses a great challenge to the hydrological modeling that is essential to the development of Total Maximum Daily Loads for these lakes. We used a Hydrological Simulation Program – Fortran model coupled with the parallel Parameter ESTimation model calibration and uncertainty analysis software to estimate effectively the hydrological interactions between the lakes and the underlying upper Floridan aquifer and the water budgets for these three lakes. The net results of the lake‐groundwater interactions in Newnans and Orange Lakes are that both lakes recharge the underlying upper Floridan aquifer, with the recharge rate of the latter one magnitude greater than that of the former. However, for Lochloosa Lake, the net lake‐groundwater interaction is that the lake gains water from groundwater in a significant amount, approximately 40% of its total terrestrial water input. The annual average vertical leakages estimated for Newnans, Lochloosa, and Orange Lakes are 6.0 × 10⁶, ?8.9 × 10⁶, and 44.4 × 10⁶ m³, respectively. The average vertical hydraulic conductance (K_v/b) of the units between a lake bottom and the underlying upper Floridan aquifer in this region are also estimated to be from 1.26 × 10^?4 to 1.01 × 10^?3 day^?1.     

Response of Algal Biomass to Large‐Scale Nutrient Controls in the Clark Fork River,Montana, United States1

Suplee, Michael W., Vicki Watson, Walter K. Dodds, and Chris Shirley, 2012. Response of Algal Biomass to Large‐Scale Nutrient Controls in the Clark Fork River, Montana, United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 1008‐1021. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00666.x Abstract: Nutrient pollution is an ongoing concern in rivers. Although nutrient targets have been proposed for rivers, little is known about long‐term success of programs to decrease river nutrients and algal biomass. Twelve years of summer data (1998‐2009) collected along 383 km of the Clark Fork River were analyzed to ascertain whether a basin‐wide nutrient reduction program lowered ambient total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations, and bottom‐attached algal biomass. Target nutrient and algal biomass levels were established for the program in 1998. Significant declines were observed in TP but not TN along the entire river. Downstream of the city of Missoula, TP declined below a literature‐derived TP saturation breakpoint and met program targets after 2005; TN was below targets since 2007. Algal biomass also declined significantly below Missoula. Trends there likely relate to the city’s wastewater facility upgrades, despite its 20% population increase. Upstream of Missoula, nutrient reductions were less substantial; still, TP and TN declined toward saturation breakpoints, but no significant reductions in algal biomass occurred, and program targets were not met. The largest P‐load reduction to the river was from a basin‐wide phosphate laundry detergent ban set 10 years before, in 1989. We document that nutrient reductions in rivers can be successful in controlling algal biomass, but require achievement of concentrations below saturation and likely close to natural background.     

Science and Decision Making: Water Management and Tree‐Ring Data in the Western United States1

Abstract: Growing populations, limited resources, and sustained drought are placing increased pressure on already over‐allocated water supplies in the western United States, prompting some water managers to seek out and utilize new forms of climate data in their planning efforts. One source of information that is now being considered by water resource management is extended hydrologic records from tree‐ring data. Scientists with the Western Water Assessment (WWA) have been providing reconstructions of streamflow (i.e., paleoclimate data) to water managers in Colorado and other western states (Arizona, New Mexico, and Wyoming), and presenting technical workshops explaining the applications of tree‐ring data for water management for the past eight years. Little is known, however, about what has resulted from these engagements between scientists and water managers. Using in‐depth interviews and a survey questionnaire, we attempt to address this lack of information by examining the outcomes of the interactions between WWA scientists and western water managers to better understand how paleoclimate data has been translated to water resource management. This assessment includes an analysis of what prompts water managers to seek out tree‐ring data, how paleoclimate data are utilized by water managers in both quantitative and qualitative ways, and how tree‐ring data are interpreted in the context of organization mandates and histories. We situate this study within a framework that examines the coproduction of science and policy, where scientists and resource managers collectively define and examine research and planning needs, the activities of which are embedded within wider social and political contexts. These findings have broader applications for understanding science‐policy interactions related to climate and climate change in resource management, and point to the potential benefits of reflexive interactions of scientists and decision makers.     

Precipitation as the Primary Driver of Variability in River Nitrogen Loads in the Midwest United States

Nitrogen (N) losses from agricultural lands in the Midwest United States are contributing to the expansion of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico. This study evaluated the importance of inter‐annual variability in precipitation, land cover, and N fertilizer use on NO₃ + NO₂‐N loads in seven United States Midwestern Rivers using the backward stepwise regression analysis. At the annual scale, fluctuations in the current and previous years’ precipitations explained much of the variation in streamflow, baseflow, and N‐load. Previous years precipitation effects were associated with fillable soil porosity. In some years, higher residual soil N from previous dry years also contributed to an increase in N‐load. Area under soybean production (SOY), a surrogate for replacement of prairies and small grains was generally not a significant explanatory variable. Fertilizer use from 1987 to 2012 was also not a significant explanatory variable in the annual analysis. Precipitation in both the current and previous months and previous year were important in explaining variation in monthly streamflow, baseflow, and N‐load. SOY was significant in one or two months from June to August, but had a higher p‐value than precipitation. We conclude recent increases in river N‐loads are primarily due to wet climate and minimally due to the changes in land cover or N fertilizer use. Under current cropping systems and agronomic N application rates, tile water remediation will be necessary to reduce river N‐loads.     

Mid‐Range Streamflow Forecasts Based on Climate Modeling – Statistical Correction and Evaluation1

Abstract: Mid‐range streamflow predictions are extremely important for managing water resources. The ability to provide mid‐range (three to six months) streamflow forecasts enables considerable improvements in water resources system operations. The skill and economic value of such forecasts are of great interest. In this research, output from a general circulation model (GCM) is used to generate hydrologic input for mid‐range streamflow forecasts. Statistical procedures including: (1) transformation, (2) correction, (3) observation of ensemble average, (4) improvement of forecast, and (5) forecast skill test are conducted to minimize the error associated with different spatial resolution between the large‐scale GCM and the finer‐scale hydrologic model and to improve forecast skills. The accuracy of a streamflow forecast generated using a hydrologic model forced with GCM output for the basin was evaluated by forecast skill scores associated with the set of streamflow forecast values in a categorical forecast. Despite the generally low forecast skill score exhibited by the climate forecasting approach, precipitation forecast skill clearly improves when a conditional forecast is performed during the East Asia summer monsoon, June through August.     

Long‐Term Streamflow Response to Climatic Variability in the Loess Plateau,China1

Abstract: The Loess Plateau region in northwestern China has experienced severe water resource shortages due to the combined impacts of climate and land use changes and water resource exploitation during the past decades. This study was designed to examine the impacts of climatic variability on streamflow characteristics of a 12‐km² watershed near Tianshui City, Gansu Province in northwestern China. Statistic analytical methods including Kendall’s trend test and stepwise regression were used to detect trends in relationship between observed streamflow and climatic variables. Sensitivity analysis based on an evapotranspiration model was used to detect quantitative hydrologic sensitivity to climatic variability. We found that precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET) and streamflow (Q) were not statistically significantly different (p > 0.05) over the study period between 1982 and 2003. Stepwise regression and sensitivity analysis all indicated that P was more influential than PET in affecting annual streamflow, but the similar relationship existed at the monthly scale. The sensitivity of streamflow response to variations of P and PET increased slightly with the increase in watershed dryness (PET/P) as well as the increase in runoff ratio (Q/P). This study concluded that future changes in climate, precipitation in particular, will significantly impact water resources in the Loess Plateau region an area that is already experiencing a decreasing trend in water yield.     

County‐Scale Rainwater Harvesting Feasibility in the United States: Climate,Collection Area,Density, and Reuse Considerations

Roof rainwater harvesting (RWH) has the potential to augment water supplies for urban and suburban uses throughout the United States (U.S.). Studies of the performance of RWH at the building and city scales in the U.S. are available, but a countrywide overview of the potential performance of RWH at the county scale has not been done before. Three approaches were taken: (1) assess the viability of RWH in terms of the rainfall that could be captured in relation to the water demand in each county (excluding agriculture), (2) evaluate the performance of a “typical” domestic RWH system across all counties with metrics related to its ability to supply the potable and nonpotable demand, and (3) evaluate the effect of adding a 50% rainwater reuse component to the analysis. We find RWH could be a viable supplemental water source in the U.S., particularly in counties of the Pacific Northwest, Central, and Eastern regions (percent demand covered >50%). Low population density counties have the potential to meet their annual water needs with RWH, while high‐density counties could only source a small portion (~20%) of their annual demand with RWH. Typical RWH systems in counties in the Central and Eastern U.S. performed better than in Western counties. Adding a reuse component can be a key factor in making RWH attractive in many areas of the country. This work can inform future water infrastructure investment and planning in the U.S.