Modeling Pre‐ and Post‐Dam Removal Sediment Dynamics: The Kalamazoo River,Michigan1

Abstract:  The state of Michigan is interested in removing two low‐head dams in an 8.8 km reach of the Kalamazoo River between Plainwell and Otsego, Michigan, while minimizing impacts locally and to downstream reaches. The study was designed to evaluate the erosion, transport, and deposition of sediments over a 37.3‐year period using the channel evolution model CONCEPTS for three simulation scenarios: Dams In (DI), Dams Out (DO), and Design (D). The total mass of sediment emanating from the channel boundary, for the DI case, shows net deposition of 4,100 T/y for the study reach, with net transport (suspended and bed load) of 10,500 T/y passing the downstream boundary. For the DO case, net erosion is 19,200 T/y with net transport of 30,100 T/y (187% increase) passing the downstream boundary. For the D case, net deposition is 2,570 T/y (37% decrease) with transport of 14,200 T/y (35% increase) passing the downstream boundary. The most significant findings were: (1) removal of the low‐head dams will cause significant erosion of sediments stored behind the dams and increased sediment loads passing the downstream boundary and (2) sediment loads for the proposed channel design are similar to existing conditions and offer reduced fine‐sediment loadings.     

Optimized acid rain abatement strategies using ecological goals

This article addresses the use of critical loads in optimized emission abatement strategies. Critical loads represent the maximum tolerable deposition possible without adverse impacts, a limit that is highly spatially variable. As deposition targets, critical loads cannot be satisfied at all receptors in Europe. Consequently, there is a need for alternative criteria that still relate to ecological indicators, yet that are feasible, consistent, and equitable. Two criteria are suggested: the relative critical load coverage and the relative deposition reduction. Deposition goals based on these criteria will guarantee that a specified fraction of ecosystems will attain target loads and thus will be protected from adverse environmental impacts. In areas that cannot achieve target loads with the best available control measures, deposition can be reduced to a specified fraction of the unabated level. Examples are presented that demonstrate their derivation and application of the two criteria. The criteria have been implemented in the European-scale Regional Acidification Information and Simulation (RAINS) model. Results obtained indicate that optimized emission strategies based on critical loads may be similar to emission strategies based on deposition reductions at certain levels of the two criteria. This suggests that it may not be necessary to utilize critical loads to formulate deposition targets. A second example shows the effect of excluding countries from European cost minimization. A country's participation can save costs with moderate deposition targets; however, significant costs can be imposed with low (stringent) deposition targets. These preliminary results have significant implications for multilateral negotiations.     

Modelling the impacts of strategic tree plantings on salt loads and flows in the Macquarie river catchment,NSW, Australia

In Australia, problems of dryland and stream salinity have recently become the focus of a National Action Plan. In many river catchments, preliminary stream salt load and salinity targets have been set to define maximum permissible export levels in 2015. Afforestation has been proposed as a strategy for meeting these targets, although several studies suggest that widespread commercial tree plantations are likely to deliver net dis-benefits. However, the impacts on stream salt loads of more localised tree plantings in high salt yielding areas have not been quantified. In this paper we use a simple empirical model to predict the effects of various strategic and non-strategic tree planting scenarios on flows and salt loads in the mid-Macquarie catchment, New South Wales. A simple salt routing model is then used to estimate the effect of these changes on salt loads at the end-of-valley monitoring site for the Macquarie catchment. Results suggest that widespread land management interventions will be required to meet the preliminary salt load targets for this catchment. On their own, small-scale, strategic tree planting in high salt export areas of the mid-Macquarie area will not have a significant impact on salt loads at the end-of-valley monitoring site. While widespread tree plantings may reduce salt loads in the longer term, they are likely to cause streamflow losses in the shorter term. Thus, stream salinities are expected to rise initially, due to the different response times of groundwater and surface water systems to land use change.     

Model Based Nitrate TMDLs for Two Agricultural Watersheds of Southeastern Minnesota1

Abstract: In this study, a set of nitrogen reduction strategies were modeled to evaluate the feasibility of improving water quality to meet total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) in two agricultural watersheds. For this purpose, a spatial‐process model was calibrated and used to predict monthly nitrate losses (1994‐96) from Sand and Bevens Creek watersheds located in south‐central Minnesota. Statistical comparison of predicted and observed flow and nitrate losses gave r² coefficients of 0.75 and 0.70 for Sand Creek watershed and 0.72 and 0.67 for Bevens Creek watershed, respectively. Modeled alternative agricultural management scenarios included: six different N application rates over three application timings and three different percentages of crop land with subsurface drainage. Predicted annual nitrate losses were then compared with nitrate TMDLs assuming a 30% reduction in observed nitrate losses is required. Reductions of about 33 (8.6 to 5.8 kg/ha) and 35% (23 to 15 kg/ha) in existing annual nitrate losses are possible for Sand and Bevens Creek watersheds, respectively, by switching the timing of fertilizer application from fall to spring. Trends towards increases in tile‐drained crop land imply that attaining nitrate TMDLs in future may require other alternative management practices in addition to fertilizer management such as partial conversion of crop land to pasture.     

WATER QUALITY MODELING FOR THE FEITSUI RESERVOIR IN NORTHERN TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: Field data collected from the Feitsui Reservoir in Taiwan indicate that the water is at a stage between mesotrophic and eutrophic. Recent measurements such as total phosphorus, chlorophyll a and Secchi depth levels suggest that the water quality has been declining. A two‐dimensional, laterally averaged, finite difference hydrodynamic and water quality model was used to simulate the water quality in the Feitsui Reservoir in an effort to determine sound water quality management strategies. The model was calibrated and verified using data collected in 1996 and 1997. The calibrated model was used to simulate algal biomass (in terms of chlorophyll a) levels under various wasteload reduction scenarios. Model results show that 50 percent reduction of the total phosphorus load will improve the existing water quality, shifting the trophic status from eutrophic/mesotrophic to oligotrophic. The modeling effort has yielded valuable information that can be used by decision makers for the evaluation of different management strategies of reducing watershed nutrient loads.     

ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING: Exceedance of Critical Loads for Lakes in Finland,Norway, and Sweden: Reduction Requirements for Acidifying Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition

/ The main objectives of this study were to identify the regions inFennoscandia where the critical loads of sulfur (S) and acidifying nitrogen(N) for lakes are exceeded and to investigate the consequences for depositionreductions, with special emphasis on the possible trade-offs between S and Ndeposition in order to achieve nonexceedance. In the steady-state model forcalculating critical loads and their exceedances, all relevant processesacting assinks for N and S are considered. The critical loads of N and S areinterrelated (defining the so-called critical load function), and therefore asingle critical load for one pollutant cannot be defined without makingassumptions about the other. Comparing the present N and S deposition withthe critical load function for each lake allows determination of thepercentage of lakes in the different regions of Fennoscandia where: (1) Sreductions alone can achieve nonexceedance, (2) N reductions alone aresufficient, and (3) both N and S reductions are required but to a certaindegree interchangeable. Secondly, deposition reduction requirements wereassessed by fixing the N deposition to the present level, in this wayanalyzing the reductions required for S, and by computing the percentage oflakes exceeded in Finland, Norway and Sweden for every possible percentdeposition reduction in S and N, in this way showing the (relative)effectiveness of reducing S and/or N deposition. The results showed clearregional patterns in the S and N reduction requirements. In practically thewhole of Finland and the northern parts of Scandinavia man-made acidificationof surface waters could be avoided by reducing S deposition alone. In thesouthern parts of Sweden some reductions in N deposition are clearly neededin addition to those for S. In southern Norway strong reductions are requiredfor both N and S deposition.KEY WORDS: Acidification; Critical load; Exceedance; Sulfur; Nitrogen;Deposition; Lake     

Response of Nitrogen Loading to the Chesapeake Bay to Source Reduction and Land Use Change Scenarios: A SPARROW‐Informed Analysis

In response to concerns regarding the health of streams and receiving waters, the United States Environmental Protection Agency established a total maximum daily load for nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed for which practices must be in place by 2025 resulting in an expected 25% reduction in load from 2009 levels. The response of total nitrogen (TN) loads delivered to the Bay to nine source reduction and land use change scenarios was estimated using a Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes model. The largest predicted reduction in TN load delivered to the Bay was associated with a scenario in which the mass of TN as fertilizer applied to agricultural lands was decreased. A 25% decrease in the mass of TN applied as fertilizer resulted in a predicted reduction in TN loading to the Bay of 11.3%, which was 2.5–5 times greater than the reductions predicted by other scenarios. Eliminating fertilizer application to all agricultural land in the watershed resulted in a predicted reduction in TN load to the Bay of 45%. It was estimated that an approximate 25% reduction in TN loading to the Bay could be achieved by eliminating fertilizer applied to the 7% of subwatersheds contributing the greatest fertilizer‐sourced TN loads to the Bay. These results indicate that management strategies aimed at decreasing loading from a small number of subwatersheds may be effective for reducing TN loads to the Bay, and similar analyses are possible in other watersheds.     

WATERSHED OPTIMIZATION OF AGRICULTURAL BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES: CONTINUOUS SIMULATION VERSUS DESIGN STORMS1

ABSTRACT: Nonpoint source (NPS) models and expert opinions are often used to prescribe best management practices (BMPs) for controlling NPS pollution. An optimization algorithm (e.g., a genetic algorithm, or GA) linked with a NPS model (e.g., Annualized AGricultural Nonpoint Source pollution model, or AnnAGNPS), can be used to more objectively prescribe BMPs and to optimize NPS pollution control measures by maximizing pollutant reduction and net monetary return from a watershed. Pollutant loads from design storms and annual loads from a continuous simulation can both be used for optimizing BMP schemes. However, which strategy results in a better solution (in terms of providing water quality protection) for a watershed is not clear. The specific objective of the study was to determine the differences in watershed pollutant loads, in an experimental watershed in Pennsylvania, resulting from optimization analyses performed using pollutant loads from a series of five 2‐yr 24‐hr storm events, a series of five 5‐yr 24‐hr storm events, and cumulative pollutant loads from a continuous simulation of five years of weather data. For each of these three different event alternatives, 100 near optimal solutions (BMP schemes) were generated. Sediment (Sed), sediment nitrogen (SedN), dissolved N (SolN), sediment organic carbon (SedOC), and sediment phosphorus (SedP) loads from a different five‐year period (an evaluation period) suggest that the optimal BMP schemes resulting from the use of annual cumulative pollutant loads from a continuous simulation of five years of weather data provide smaller cumulative NPS pollutant loads at the watershed outlet.     

Reducing phosphorus runoff from dairy farms

Phosphorus (P) runoff from manure can lead to eutrophication of surface water and algae growth. This study evaluates the impacts of alternative P reduction practices on dairy farm net returns and on potential P runoff. The P control practices include dairy herd nutrient management, crop nutrient management, and runoff and erosion control. Four farms representative of dairies in the Virginia Shenandoah Valley are simulated including dairies with and without supplementary broiler enterprises and with average and below average land area. A mathematical programming model was developed to predict farm production and net returns and the GLEAMS model was used to predict potential P runoff. The farms are evaluated under four scenarios: Scenario 1, no constraint on P runoff with access to crop nutrient, runoff and erosion control strategies but no access to dairy herd nutrient control strategies; Scenario 2, no constraint on P runoff with access to all crop and dairy herd nutrient control strategies; Scenario 3, constraint on P runoff with access to crop nutrient, runoff and erosion control strategies but no access to dairy herd nutrient control strategies; and Scenario 4, constraint on P runoff with access to all crop and dairy herd nutrient control strategies. Under Scenario 2, the herd nutrient control strategies increase milk output per cow and net returns on both farms and reduce P content of manure and P runoff. Under Scenario 3, limiting P runoff reduces farm returns by 1 and 3% on the average and small farms, respectively. Under Scenario 4, the P runoff constraint is less costly, reducing returns by less than 1% on both farms. Animal nutrient control strategies should be an important part of pollution control policies and programs for livestock intensive watersheds.     

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment1

Shrestha, Rajesh R., Yonas B. Dibike, and Terry D. Prowse, 2011. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 74‐89. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00592.x Abstract: This paper presents a modeling study on climate‐induced changes in hydrologic and nutrient fluxes in the Upper Assiniboine catchment, located in the Lake Winnipeg watershed. The hydrologic and agricultural chemical yield model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to model a 21‐year baseline (1980‐2000) and future (2042‐2062) periods with model forcings for future climates derived from three regional climate models (RCMs) and their ensemble means. The modeled future scenarios reveal that potential future changes in the climatic regime are likely to modify considerably hydrologic and nutrient fluxes. The effects of future changes in climatic variables, especially precipitation and temperature, are clearly evident in the resulting snowmelt and runoff regimes. The future hydrologic scenarios consistently show earlier onsets of spring snowmelt and discharge peaks, and higher total runoff volumes. The simulated nutrient loads closely match the dynamics of the future runoff for both nitrogen and phosphorus, in terms of earlier timing of peak loads and higher total loads. However, nutrient concentrations could decrease due to the higher rate of runoff increase. Overall, the effects of these changes on the nutrient transport regime need to be considered together with possible future changes in land use, crop type, fertilizer application, and transformation processes in the receiving water bodies.     

Sustainable development in the Baltic sea region. Governance beyond the nation state

After the end of the Cold War, the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) developed into a highly dynamic area of cross-border cooperation and transnational networking. Three forms of governance beyond the nation state and appropriate case studies are presented here: (1) the Helsinki Convention as an international regime; (2) Baltic 21, the world's first regional Agenda 21, as an international policy network; (3) the Union of the Baltic Cities (UBC) as a transnational network. The achievement of sustainable development in the BSR undoubtedly requires a fruitful combination of national governance and these forms of international and transnational governance. In this respect, international policy networks, such as Baltic 21, and transnational networks, such as the UBC, promise to provide new approaches that can complement international and intergovernmental cooperation between nation states. Furthermore, it must also be taken into account that governance in the BSR will soon become embedded in European governance and lead to the Europeanisation of the Baltic Sea Area.     

Sustainable development in the Baltic sea region. Governance beyond the nation state

After the end of the Cold War, the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) developed into a highly dynamic area of cross-border cooperation and transnational networking. Three forms of governance beyond the nation state and appropriate case studies are presented here: (1) the Helsinki Convention as an international regime; (2) Baltic 21, the world's first regional Agenda 21, as an international policy network; (3) the Union of the Baltic Cities (UBC) as a transnational network. The achievement of sustainable development in the BSR undoubtedly requires a fruitful combination of national governance and these forms of international and transnational governance. In this respect, international policy networks, such as Baltic 21, and transnational networks, such as the UBC, promise to provide new approaches that can complement international and intergovernmental cooperation between nation states. Furthermore, it must also be taken into account that governance in the BSR will soon become embedded in European governance and lead to the Europeanisation of the Baltic Sea Area.     

OPTIMAL PROFITS UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS: IMPLICATIONS OF NUTRIENT AND SEDIMENT STANDARDS1

To reduce nonpoint source pollution from nutrient, chemical, and sediment runoff, a number of environmental policy standards have been proposed. Such standards could be used to reduce nonpoint source pollution from nutrient, chemical, and sediment runoff to impaired water bodies. State governments can use voluntary approaches to meet nonpoint source pollution reduction goals. However, the practices that lower net returns will not be voluntarily adopted by farmers. Crop rotations and tillage practices may help producers to comply with the environmental standards while minimizing losses in farm profits. This study compares runoff from crop rotation practices and conventional continuous row cropping systems in Mississippi. The results are compared for different tillage systems in order to examine robustness of results. Nutrient runoff and sediment runoff are simulated using the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC). Sensitivity analysis of the sediment and nitrate reductions at 15 percent, 25 percent, and 35 percent are conducted. Under these scenarios, net returns are optimized under environmental constraints, and the marginal cost of sediment reduction ranges from US$1.61 to US$9.63 per ton depending on soil conditions, while the corresponding nitrate and phosphorus reductions costs range from US$1.21 to US$7.08 per kg and from US$0.09 to US$31.91, respectively. The empirical results from this study indicate that a nitrate reduction policy is relatively less costly than a sediment reduction policy. The results also demonstrate the importance of geophysical conditions and policy costs, which vary across regions.     

Estimation of the effect of the degree of sewage treatment on the status of pollution along the coastline of the Mediterranean Sea using broad scale modelling

A preliminary investigation was performed to estimate the effect of the degree of treatment in Sewage Treatment Plants (STPs) on the status of pollution along the coastlines of the Mediterranean Sea. Data from questionnaires and the literature were collected and processed (a) to identify 18 approximate 1D surface coastal currents, (b) to estimate their prevailing direction and average flow velocity and (c) to estimate the water pollution loads and identify their locations of discharge. Then, a simplified 1D water quality model was formulated and applied for the existing conditions and two hypothetical scenarios: (1) all coastal cities have STPs with secondary treatment and (2) all coastal cities have STPs with tertiary treatment to determine BOD(5), TN and TP concentrations in the 18 surface coastal currents. Calculated concentrations were compared and discussed. A main conclusion is that, to reduce pollution in the Mediterranean Sea measures should be adopted for upgrading the water quality of the rivers discharging into the Mediterranean Sea, along with the construction of STPs for all the coastal cities.     

Development of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Allocation

Nutrient load allocations and subsequent reductions in total nitrogen and phosphorus have been applied in the Chesapeake watershed since 1992 to reduce hypoxia and to restore living resources. In 2010, sediment allocations were established to augment nutrient allocations supporting the submerged aquatic vegetation resource. From the initial introduction of nutrient allocations in 1992 to the present, the allocations have become more completely applied to all areas and loads in the watershed and have also become more rigorously assessed and tracked. The latest 2010 application of nutrient and sediment allocations were made as part of the Chesapeake Bay total maximum daily load and covered all six states of the Chesapeake watershed. A quantitative allocation process was developed that applied principles of equity and efficiency in the watershed, while achieving all tidal water quality standards through an assessment of equitable levels of effort in reducing nutrients and sediments. The level of effort was determined through application of two key watershed scenarios: one where no action was taken in nutrient control and one where maximum nutrient control efforts were applied. Once the level of effort was determined for different jurisdictions, the overall load reduction was set watershed‐wide to achieve dissolved oxygen water quality standards. Further adjustments were made to the allocation to achieve the James River chlorophyll‐a standard.     

A project-based system for including farmers in the EU ETS

Farmers in the EU do not trade greenhouse gases under the Kyoto agreement. This is an empirical puzzle because agriculture is a significant contributor of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the EU and may harvest private net gains from trade. Furthermore, the US has strongly advocated land-use practices as 'the missing link' in past climate negotiations. We argue that farmers have relatively low marginal reduction costs and that consequences in terms of the effect on permit price and technology are overall positive in the EU Emission Trading System (ETS). Thus, we propose a project-based system for including the farming practices in the EU ETS that reduces the uncertainty from measuring emission reduction in this sector. The system encourages GHG reduction either by introducing a new and less polluting practice or by reducing the polluting activity. When doing so, farmers will receive GHG permits corresponding to the amount of reduction which can be stored for later use or sold in the EU ETS.     

Flood Risk Reduction from Agricultural Best Management Practices

Best management practices (BMPs) play an important role in improving impaired water quality from conventional row crop agriculture. In addition to reducing nutrient and sediment loads, BMPs such as fertilizer management, reduced tillage, and cover crops could alter the hydrology of agricultural systems and reduce surface water runoff. While attention is devoted to the water quality benefits of BMPs, the potential co‐benefits of flood loss reduction are often overlooked. This study quantifies the effects of selected commonly applied BMPs on expected flood loss to agricultural and urban areas in four Iowa watersheds. The analysis combines a watershed hydrologic model, hydraulic model outputs, and a loss estimation model to determine relationships between hydrologic changes from BMP implementations and annual economic flood loss. The results indicate a modest reduction in peak discharge and economic loss, although loss reduction is substantial when urban centers or other high‐value assets are located downstream in the watershed. Among the BMPs, wetlands, and cover crops reduce losses the most. The research demonstrates that watershed‐scale implementation of agricultural BMPs could provide benefits of flood loss reduction in addition to water quality improvements.     

Are soil conservation technologies “win‐win?” A case study of Anjeni in the north‐western Ethiopian highlands

This study measures the impact of fanya juu terraces on the net value of crop income in a high‐rainfall area in the Ethiopian highlands using cross‐sectional multiple plot observations. Using propensity score matching methods we find that the net value of crop income for plots with fanya juu terraces is lower than for plots without fanya juu terraces. This finding makes it difficult to avoid concluding that while the technologies might reduce soil erosion and associated off‐site effects, they do so at the expense of poor farmers in the Ethiopian highlands. Therefore, fanya juu terraces cannot be characterized as a “win‐win” measure to reduce soil erosion. New agricultural technologies need to be profitable to the farmer if they are to be adopted and sustained.     

Energy technology modelling of major carbon abatement options

The International Energy Agency Energy Technologies Perspectives (ETP) model is used to assess the prospects for carbon abatement options, including carbon capture and storage, up to 2050. Three main scenarios are considered: a Baseline scenario with current energy policies, an accelerated technology scenario that seeks to return energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2050 to their level in 2005, and a scenario for which CO₂ emissions are reduced at 50% of current levels by 2050. To reach these emissions reduction targets, annual global CO₂ emissions in the year 2050 must be reduced by 35 GtCO₂ to 48 GtCO₂ compared to the Baseline scenario. The analysis presented here shows that a broad portfolio of emissions reducing technologies will need to be deployed across all economic sectors of the global economy to reach these targets. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one of the suite of technologies employed across the globe to reach these targets. CCS adoption occurs in many aspects of the global economy and accounts for 14–19% of all emissions reductions. The total amount of CO₂ captured and stored in deep geologic reservoirs up to 2050 ranges between 5.1 GtCO₂ and 10.4 GtCO₂ in these two climate policy scenarios. Up to 2030, more than half of total CCS deployment takes place in OECD countries. After 2035, emerging economies account for more than half of total CCS use. This paper also demonstrates that as the climate policy becomes more stringent it will be necessary for CCS to deploy more extensively in many different industries outside of the electric power sector which often receives the most attention in discussions of CCS's role in addressing climate change.