Incompatible Land Uses and the Topology of Cumulative Risk

The extensive literature on environmental justice has, by now, well defined the essential ingredients of cumulative risk, namely, incompatible land uses and vulnerability. Most problematic is the case when risk is produced by a large aggregation of small sources of air toxics. In this article, we test these notions in an area of Southern California, Southeast Los Angeles (SELA), which has come to be known as Asthmatown. Developing a rapid risk mapping protocol, we scan the neighborhood for small potential sources of air toxics and find, literally, hundreds of small point sources within a 2-mile radius, interspersed with residences. We also map the estimated cancer risks and noncancer hazard indices across the landscape. We find that, indeed, such large aggregations of even small, nondominant sources of air toxics can produce markedly elevated levels of risk. In this study, the risk profiles show additional cancer risks of up to 800 in a million and noncancer hazard indices of up to 200 in SELA due to the agglomeration of small point sources. This is significant (for example, estimates of the average regional point-source-related cancer risk range from 125 to 200 in a million). Most importantly, if we were to talk about the risk contour as if they were geological structures, we would observe not only a handful of distinct peaks, but a general “mountain range” running all throughout the study area, which underscores the ubiquity of risk in SELA. Just as cumulative risk has deeply embedded itself into the fabric of the place, so, too, must intervention seek to embed strategies into the institutions and practices of SELA. This has implications for advocacy, as seen in a recently initiated participatory action research project aimed at building health research capacities into the community in keeping with an ethic of care.     

Estimation of biogenic emissions with satellite-derived land use and land cover data for air quality modeling of Houston-Galveston ozone nonattainment area

The Houston-Galveston Area (HGA) is one of the most severe ozone non-attainment regions in the US. To study the effectiveness of controlling anthropogenic emissions to mitigate regional ozone nonattainment problems, it is necessary to utilize adequate datasets describing the environmental conditions that influence the photochemical reactivity of the ambient atmosphere. Compared to the anthropogenic emissions from point and mobile sources, there are large uncertainties in the locations and amounts of biogenic emissions. For regional air quality modeling applications, biogenic emissions are not directly measured but are usually estimated with meteorological data such as photo-synthetically active solar radiation, surface temperature, land type, and vegetation database. In this paper, we characterize these meteorological input parameters and two different land use land cover datasets available for HGA: the conventional biogenic vegetation/land use data and satellite-derived high-resolution land cover data. We describe the procedures used for the estimation of biogenic emissions with the satellite derived land cover data and leaf mass density information. Air quality model simulations were performed using both the original and the new biogenic emissions estimates. The results showed that there were considerable uncertainties in biogenic emissions inputs. Subsequently, ozone predictions were affected up to 10 ppb, but the magnitudes and locations of peak ozone varied each day depending on the upwind or downwind positions of the biogenic emission sources relative to the anthropogenic NOx and VOC sources. Although the assessment had limitations such as heterogeneity in the spatial resolutions, the study highlighted the significance of biogenic emissions uncertainty on air quality predictions. However, the study did not allow extrapolation of the directional changes in air quality corresponding to the changes in LULC because the two datasets were based on vastly different LULC category definitions and uncertainties in the vegetation distributions.     

FORECASTING FUTURE LAND USE FOR WATERSHED ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Protecting surface water quality in watersheds undergoing demographic change requires both the management of existing threats and planning to address potential future stresses arising from changing land use. Many reservoirs and threatened waterbodies are located in areas undergoing rapid population growth, and increases in density of residential and commercial land use, accompanied by increased amount of impervious surface area, can result in increased pollutant loading and degradation of water quality. Effective planning to address potential threats, including zoning and growth management, requires analytical tools to predict and compare the impacts of different management options. The focus of this paper is not on developing demographic projections, but rather the translation of such projections into changes in land use which form the basis for assessment of future watershed loads. Land use change can be forecast at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A semi-lumped, GIS-based, transition matrix approach is recommended as consistent with the level of complexity achievable in most watershed models. Practical aspects of forecasting future land use for watershed assessment are discussed. Several recent reservoir water supply projection studies are used to demonstrate a general framework for simulating changes in land use and resulting impacts on water quality. In addition to providing a technical basis for selecting optimal management alternatives, such a tool is invaluable for demonstrating to different stakeholder groups the trade-offs among management alternatives, both in terms of water quality and future land use patterns within the watershed.     

构建土地利用规划环境影响评价的指标体系

20世纪90年代中期,土地科学界和生态学界曾提出:"无论将土地作为生产性利用还是非生产性利用,都会形成一种干扰,使生态环境的不确定性增大,从而降低土地利用规划的科学性和合理性".在这一背景条件下,尝试性地按照土地利用类型对其所带来的环境变化影响与效应进行了分析,并在此基础上构建土地利用规划环境影响评价指标体系及可采用的评价方法.     

土地利用规划战略环境影响评价浅探

本文在介绍国内外规划环境影响评价发展概况的基础上，提出了土地利用规划环境影响评价的重要意义。初步探讨了土地利用规划战略环境影响评价的范畴、体系、指标体系与评价方法，并建议应深入开展土地利用规划战略环境影响评价理论研究，健全相关制度，尽快出台相关技术规程。     

The benefits and costs of reducing emissions from the electricity sector

Recent federal policy proposals to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and mercury from the US electricity sector promise important improvements in air quality and reductions in acid deposition. The cost of achieving these reductions depends on the form and stringency of the regulation. In this research, we analyze the economic benefits and costs of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) as characterized in the supplemental rule proposed in June 2004, and the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) as proposed in February 2004. The assessment integrates a model of the electricity sector, two models of atmospheric transport of air pollutants, and a model of environmental and public health endpoints affected by pollution. We model explicitly the emissions of SO(2), NO(x), mercury and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and the effects of changes in emissions of SO(2) and NO(x) on environmental and public health. The manner in which mercury emissions are regulated will have important implications not only for the cost of the regulation, but also for emission levels for SO(2) and NO(x) and where those emissions are located. We find the economic benefits of CAIR and CAMR are far greater than the costs. Recent estimates of benefits of reductions in mercury and acidification indicate that our model captures the lion's share of quantifiable benefits. We also find that the EPA would have been justified on economic grounds in pursuing additional SO(2) emissions reductions beyond the requirements of CAIR.     

Estimating the reduction of urban PM10 concentrations by trees within an environmental information system for planners

Trees have been widely quoted as effective scavengers of both gaseous and particulate pollutants from the atmosphere. Recent work on the deposition of urban aerosols onto woodland allows the effect of tree planting strategies on airborne aerosol concentrations to be quantified and considered within the planning process. By identifying the potential planting locations in the local authority area, and applying them within a dispersion and deposition model, the potential magnitude of reduction in the ambient concentration of PM(10), achievable through urban tree planting, has been quantified for two UK cities. As part of the Environmental Information Systems for Planners (EISP), flow diagrams, based on planning decisions, have incorporated output from the model to make decisions on land use planning ranging from development plans and strategic planning, to development control. In this way, for any new developments that contribute to the local PM(10) level, the mitigation by planting trees can be assessed, and in some cases, reductions can be sufficient to meet air quality objectives for PM(10).     

Effect of land cover data on nitrous oxide inventory in fen meadows

Landscape representations based on land cover databases differ significantly from the real landscape. Using a land cover database with high uncertainty as input for emission inventory analyses can cause propagation of systematic and random errors. The objective of this study was to analyze how different land cover representations introduce systematic errors into the results of regional N2O emission inventories. Surface areas of grassland, ditches, and ditch banks were estimated for two polders in the Dutch fen meadow landscape using five land cover representations: four commonly used databases and a detailed field map, which most closely resembles the real landscape. These estimated surface areas were scaled up to the Dutch western fen meadow landscape. Based on the estimated surface areas agricultural N2O emissions were estimated using different inventory techniques. All four common databases overestimated the grassland area when compared to the field map. This caused a considerable overestimation of agricultural N2O emissions, ranging from 9% for more detailed databases to 11% for the coarsest database. The effect of poor land cover representation was larger for an inventory method based on a process model than for inventory methods based on simple emission factors. Although the effect of errors in land cover representations may be small compared to the effect of uncertainties in emission factors, these effects are systematic (i.e., cause bias) and do not cancel out by spatial upscaling. Moreover, bias in land cover representations can be quantified or reduced by careful selection of the land cover database.     

Measuring the gains from improved air quality in the San Joaquin Valley

Many regions worldwide are experiencing rapid urbanization, and often along with growth in the local economy and population comes worsening air quality. Such regions typically find that addressing the additional challenge of polluted air is difficult. This paper reports the results of an assessment of the present health and related economic costs of poor air quality in the San Joaquin Valley of California. Further, it suggests how such assessments can support strategies to pursue pollution reductions that offer the largest near-term gains, by rigorously modeling the associations between pollution levels, demographic groups, and recognized adverse health effects.     

TIM: Assessing the sustainability of agricultural land management

TIM (Threat Identification Model) is a framework for the ex ante assessment of agricultural land management sustainability at the land unit scale that identifies sources of unsustainability within agricultural land management systems. The model explicitly links defined hazards to land productivity and environmental integrity, land resource data and information, and land management practice options using expert and local knowledge on land management and its potential effects. The model was tested in the Crystal Creek Subcatchment, a narrow coastal strip of land situated in north Queensland, Australia. This area was chosen due to the expansion of the sugar industry onto increasingly marginal land in the area, which represents a threat to sustainable land use and a requirement for careful land-use planning and land management.TIM may be used in a relational database as a stand alone decision support system for land-management planning. Its usefulness in land-use planning is greatest when it is linked to a Geographic Information System (GIS) as shown in this paper. GIS allows TIM outputs, such as constraints to agriculture and site-specific best-management practices, to be identified in a spatially explicit manner.The main advantages of TIM are that it can be done ex ante, it removes the need to define sustainability assessment criteria and indicators, it utilises current understanding of the causes and effects of land degradation and how different land-management practices influence these, and links this knowledge to definite land-management options.     

Risk assessment for atmospheric environmental management: a case study in the Hunter Region of New South Wales,Australia

The theoretical framework of a risk assessment scheme is applied to air quality assessment in a developing region in Australia, the Hunter Valley in the state of New South Wales. It is found that the application of such a scheme high-lights a number of inadequacies in the air quality management. New modeling methodologies are found to be necessary to assess some air quality impacts, as existing knowledge is inadequate. The importance of extensive data bases is underlined as is the need for social surveys to supplement air pollution monitoring when gauging aesthetic effects of air pollutants.A visiting fellow on leave from the School of Australian Environmental Studies, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.     

A human ecological assessment of air quality management: A convergence in economic and ecological thinking?

Traditional air pollution management practices are examined using the human ecological framework adopted by Boyden and others (1981) in their study of Hong Kong—the biohistorical or biosocial approach. The subsequent analysis of current air quality management practices assesses their effectiveness in protecting the overall health of both humans and the natural environment. The uncertainties inherent in air pollution management practices which emerge highlight the need to reduce emissions rather than rely on scientific knowledge to define clean air. The assessment also clearly defines roles for research in various areas such as atmospheric models, health effects, and environmental damage. The final recommendations emphasize the need for the introduction of such incentives to reduce emissions as economic instruments and warn against using health information to define clean air. Health and environmental damage information can, however, be used in risk assessment strategies together with atmospheric dispersion models.     

Trends in future N₂O emissions due to land use change

Better insight in the possible range of future N?O emissions can help to construct mitigation and adaptation strategies and to adapt land use planning and management to climate objectives. The Dutch fen meadow landscape is a hotspot of N?O emission due to high nitrogen inputs combined with moist peat soils due to land use change. Socio-economic developments in the area are expected to have major impacts on N?O emission. The goals of this study are to estimate changes in N?O emissions for the period 2006-2040 under three different scenarios for the Dutch fen meadow landscape (rural production, rural fragmentation, and rural multifunctionality) and to quantify the share of different emission sources. Three scenarios were constructed and quantified based on the Story-And-Simulation approach. The rural production and the rural fragmentation scenarios are characterized by globalization and a market-oriented economy; in the rural production scenario dairy farming has a strong competitive position in the study region, while under the rural fragmentation scenario agriculture is declining. Under the rural multifunctionality scenario, the global context is characterized by regionalization and stronger regulation toward environmental issues. The N?O emission decreased between 2006 and 2040 under all scenarios. Under the rural production scenario, the N?O emission decreased by 7%. Due to measures to limit peat mineralization and policies to reduce agricultural emissions, the rural multifunctionality scenario showed the largest decrease in N?O emissions (44%). Under the rural fragmentation scenario, in which the dairy farming sector is diminished, the emission decreased by 33%. Compared to other uncertainties involved in N?O emission estimates, the uncertainty due to possible future land use change is relatively large and assuming a constant emission with time is therefore not appropriate.     

城市环境总体规划中的布局问题研究——以北京市丰台区为例

城市环境总体规划是对城市中长期环境管理的综合安排,是环境保护基础性的规划,其核心问题在于规模、结构和布局,即从城市环境、资源与生态约束角度为社会经济发展规划、城市总体规划与土地利用规划提出限制(环境、资源与生态红线),从环境承载力与发展生态适宜性分区角度为城市发展规划提出发展适度规模、结构与布局。在城市"多规融合"的实践过程中,城市环境总体规划,作为政府综合决策的重要支撑之一,可以为其他的规划编制提供约束条件以及土地供给能力测算值,使得各规划间能够相互支撑、相互融合,因此有必要先行。本文以北京市丰台区环境总体规划为例,从布局角度出发,基于区域土地资源供给能力对丰台区进行土地生态适宜性评价,并得到土地生态适宜性区划图,从而提出丰台区城市总体规划与土地利用规划的限制条件,为城市环境总体规划先行提供科学依据。     

规划环评中的生态空间识别与生态影响评价探索——以长春新区发展规划为例

强化空间管理是规划环境影响评价优化空间开发、促进"多规合一"的新要求。同时,探索生态空间管控体系是国土空间规划的重点任务之一。本文以长春新区发展规划为例,提出前端空间引导、后端影响调控的生态空间管理体系。前端通过生态系统评价和生态空间识别,提出生态保护红线划定建议方案,确定开发"底线"。后端通过InVEST生境质量评价技术,对生境退化度及生境质量进行空间评价,识别生境威胁源影响区域,提出优化空间布局的规划调控建议。研究表明:耕地是新区发生变化幅度最为显著的用地类型,纳入生态空间管控的用地约占16.2%。其中,15.8%的用地建议纳入生态保护红线进行管理。未来城市开发对生境有一定影响,整体生境质量平均值由0.401下降至0.328。     

Coupling field observations, soil modeling, and air dispersion algorithms to estimate 1,3-dichloropropene and chloropicrin flux and exposure

Soil fumigants are volatile compounds applied to agricultural land to control nematode populations, weeds, and crop diseases. Field trials used for measuring fumigant loss from soil to the atmosphere encompass only a small proportion of the near semi-infinite parameter combinations of environmental, agronomic, and meteorological conditions. One approach to supplement field observations uses a soil physics model for fumigant emission predictions. A model is first validated against existing field study observations and then used to extrapolate results to a wider range of edaphic and climatic conditions. This work compares field observations of 1,3-dichloropropene and chloropicrin emissions to predictions from the USDA soil model CHAIN_2D. Comparison between model predictions and field observations for a Florida and California study had values between 0.62 to 0.81 and 0.99 to 1.0 for discrete and cumulative emission flux, respectively. CHAIN_2D emission rates were then coupled to several USEPA air dispersion models (ISCST3, CALPUFF6) to extend emission estimates to near field air concentrations. CALPUFF6 predicted slightly higher 1-h maximum air concentrations than ISCST3 for the same source strength (26.2-36.0% for setbacks between 1 and 250 m from the field edge, respectively). A sensitivity analysis for the CHAIN_2D/ISCST3 coupled numerical system is provided, with several soil and irrigation parameters consistently the most sensitive. Changes in the depth of incorporation, tarp material, and initial soil water content illustrate the predicted impact to emission strength and resulting near-field air concentrations with reductions of cumulative emission loss from 8.1 to 71% and average 1-h maximum air concentration reductions between 6.2 and 41% depending on the mitigation strategy chosen. Additionally, a stochastic framework based on the published SOFEA system that couples variability in experiment, model sensitivity, and site specific attributes is outlined should regional air concentration estimates resulting from fumigant use be sought.     

土地利用规划环境影响评价的技术方法

评价方法的选择是实现土地利用规划环境影响评价的重点。借鉴项目环评和规划环评的某些方法，根据土地利用规划的层次、类型和阶段的特点，给出一个土地利用规划环评的方法集，并对几种主要方法的适用范围、优缺点进行分析，最后指出方法选择应注意的事项。     

Planning methodology for predicting spatial patterns of risk potential from industrial land uses

The nature of environmental risk is often determined by the location patterns of industrial firms in a locale. We develop a methodology for analyzing the capacity of toxics-generating industries to leave toxic residuals on the landscape, in the context of long-term master planning. To understand an area's risk profile, we first characterize the location pattern of risk-generating firms and develop ways to represent the risk potentials of these shapes. To this end, we develop a geometric approach for characterizing the spatial patterns of these clusters of dirty industries, using new measures for analyzing spatial densities and compactness. We then introduce context (i.e. actual zoning patterns, transportation corridors) and explain how this relates to the spatial patterns found. We illustrate this analytical method with application to Orange County, California, USA and point out how it affords a deeper understanding of the connections between industry and environmental risk. We end the article with a discussion of how these analytical methods might be used for land use planning.     

Evaluating Aggregate Terrestrial Impacts of Road Construction Projects for Advanced Regional Mitigation

This study presents a GIS-based database framework used to assess aggregate terrestrial habitat impacts from multiple highway construction projects in California, USA. Transportation planners need such impact assessment tools to effectively address additive biological mitigation obligations. Such assessments can reduce costly delays due to protracted environmental review. This project incorporated the best available statewide natural resource data into early project planning and preliminary environmental assessments for single and multiple highway construction projects, and provides an assessment of the 10-year state-wide mitigation obligations for the California Department of Transportation. Incorporation of these assessments will facilitate early and more strategic identification of mitigation opportunities, for single-project and regional mitigation efforts. The data architecture format uses eight spatial scales: six nested watersheds, counties, and transportation planning districts, which were intersected. This resulted in 8058 map planning units statewide, which were used to summarize all subsequent analyses. Range maps and georeferenced locations of federally and state-listed plants and animals and a 55-class landcover map were spatially intersected with the planning units and the buffered spatial footprint of 967 funded projects. Projected impacts were summarized and output to the database. Queries written in the database can sum expected impacts and provide summaries by individual construction project, or by watershed, county, transportation district or highway. The data architecture allows easy incorporation of new information and results in a tool usable without GIS by a wide variety of agency biologists and planners. The data architecture format would be useful for other types of regional planning.     

An Integrated Framework for Multipollutant Air Quality Management and Its Application in Georgia

Air protection agencies in the United States increasingly confront non-attainment of air quality standards for multiple pollutants sharing interrelated emission origins. Traditional approaches to attainment planning face important limitations that are magnified in the multipollutant context. Recognizing those limitations, the Georgia Environmental Protection Division has adopted an integrated framework to address ozone, fine particulate matter, and regional haze in the state. Rather than applying atmospheric modeling merely as a final check of an overall strategy, photochemical sensitivity analysis is conducted upfront to compare the effectiveness of controlling various precursor emission species and source regions. Emerging software enables the modeling of health benefits and associated economic valuations resulting from air pollution control. Photochemical sensitivity and health benefits analyses, applied together with traditional cost and feasibility assessments, provide a more comprehensive characterization of the implications of various control options. The fuller characterization both informs the selection of control options and facilitates the communication of impacts to affected stakeholders and the public. Although the integrated framework represents a clear improvement over previous attainment-planning efforts, key remaining shortcomings are also discussed.