Regional Industries and Environmental Impacts. Long-run Regional Economic Effects of Climate Change: The Case of the Coastal and Estuary Zone of the German Northwest

The paper explores the relations of (1) regionalized climate change impulses; (2) their impacts on regional industry sectors; and (3) a regional econometric impact analysis. It develops a methodology by which the impulses of a regional climate change scenario can be transformed into ‘primary’ impacts on the capital stock and value added of climate-sensitive regional industries. These industries are vulnerable to ‘creeping’, i.e. continuous, climate change impulses, and they tend to react through ‘defensive’ investment. In addition, a singular flooding event is simulated for a specific local area and its different capital stocks. The stock damages and value-added losses of both the continuous industrial impacts and the singular flooding are inserted into a regional econometric model. This is sectorally disaggregated in stock, value-added and investment functions. It is also calibrated in the very-long run (through to the year 2040), according to different scenarios. The regional economic ‘secondary’ effects on the regional GNP are calculated. In addition to the calculation of regional economic primary and secondary impacts, the methodological issue of generating more transparency of the causal chains by use of damage functions, reaction functions, and comparative defensive strategies are discussed.     

Waste Management and Climate Change

Waste management has at least five types of impacts on climate change, attributable to: (1) landfill methane emissions; (2) reduction in industrial energy use and emissions due to recycling and waste reduction; (3) energy recovery from waste; (4) carbon sequestration in forests due to decreased demand for virgin paper; and (5) energy used in long-distance transport of waste: A recent USEPA study provides estimates of overall per-tonne greenhouse gas reductions due to recycling. Plausible calculations using these estimates suggest that countries such as the US or Australia could realise substantial greenhouse gas reductions through increased recycling, particularly of paper.     

Waste Management and Climate Change

Waste management has at least five types of impacts on climate change, attributable to: (1) landfill methane emissions; (2) reduction in industrial energy use and emissions due to recycling and waste reduction; (3) energy recovery from waste; (4) carbon sequestration in forests due to decreased demand for virgin paper; and (5) energy used in long-distance transport of waste: A recent USEPA study provides estimates of overall per-tonne greenhouse gas reductions due to recycling. Plausible calculations using these estimates suggest that countries such as the US or Australia could realise substantial greenhouse gas reductions through increased recycling, particularly of paper.     

A Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water and Watershed Systems

In this article we present a framework for assessing climate change impacts on water and watershed systems to support management decision-making. The framework addresses three issues complicating assessments of climate change impacts—linkages across spatial scales, linkages across temporal scales, and linkages across scientific and management disciplines. A major theme underlying the framework is that, due to current limitations in modeling capabilities, assessing and responding to climate change should be approached from the perspective of risk assessment and management rather than as a prediction problem. The framework is based generally on ecological risk assessment and similar approaches. A second theme underlying the framework is the need for close collaboration among climate scientists, scientists interested in assessing impacts, and resource managers and decision makers. A case study illustrating an application of the framework is also presented that provides a specific, practical example of how the framework was used to assess the impacts of climate change on water quality in a mid-Atlantic, U.S., watershed.     

Modeling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Pacific Salmon Culture Programs: An Example at Winthrop National Fish Hatchery

Hatcheries have long been used in an attempt to mitigate for declines in wild stocks of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), though the conservation benefit of hatcheries is a topic of ongoing debate. Irrespective of conservation benefits, a fundamental question is whether hatcheries will be able to function as they have in the past given anticipated future climate conditions. To begin to answer this question, we developed a deterministic modeling framework to evaluate how climate change may affect hatcheries that rear Pacific salmon. The framework considers the physiological tolerances for each species, incorporates a temperature-driven growth model, and uses two metrics commonly monitored by hatchery managers to determine the impacts of changes in water temperature and availability on hatchery rearing conditions. As a case study, we applied the model to the US Fish and Wildlife Service’s Winthrop National Fish Hatchery. We projected that hatchery environmental conditions remained within the general physiological tolerances for Chinook salmon in the 2040s (assuming A1B greenhouse gas emissions scenario), but that warmer water temperatures in summer accelerated juvenile salmon growth. Increased growth during summer coincided with periods when water availability should also be lower, thus increasing the likelihood of physiological stress in juvenile salmon. The identification of these climate sensitivities led to a consideration of potential mitigation strategies such as chilling water, altering rations, or modifying rearing cycles. The framework can be refined with new information, but in its present form, it provides a consistent, repeatable method to assess the vulnerability of hatcheries to predicted climate change.     

The Importance of Supratidal Habitats for Wintering Shorebirds and the Potential Impacts of Shrimp Aquaculture

Intensive black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon) aquaculture ponds have replaced significant areas of coastal wetlands throughout tropical Asia. Few studies have assessed potential impacts on avian foraging habitats. At Khao Sam Roi Yod National Park, Thailand, seminatural wetlands have been converted to either shrimp ponds or to salinization ponds that provide saline water for shrimp aquaculture. Although shorebirds cannot feed in aquaculture ponds, hypersaline ponds can provide productive foraging areas. Thus, the overall impact of the shrimp industry on shorebirds depends partly on the relative quality of the salt ponds compared to seminatural wetlands. In this study, we examined wintering shorebird use of tidal (N = 5 sites) and supratidal areas (four wetland sites, four salt pond sites) and compared the shorebird community (14 species), prey availability, profitability, and disturbance rates between wetlands and salt ponds. Two shorebird species fed in higher densities in wetlands, whereas seven species were more abundant in salt ponds. Large juvenile fish and dragonfly larvae were more abundant in wetlands, whereas there were more small Chironomid midge and fly larvae in salt ponds. We conclude that salt ponds might provide higher-quality foraging habitats compared to wetlands for small shorebirds species because of the abundance of small larvae. However, the shrimp aquaculture industry reduces habitat availability for shorebirds feeding on larger prey. This study demonstrates a comprehensive, multispecies approach to assess the impacts of a large-scale change in coastal habitats for wintering shorebirds.     

Stakeholder Perceptions of Climate Change Impacts at the Regional Scale: Implications for the Effectiveness of Regional and Local Responses

Interviews and three workshops with a wide range of stakeholders to explore their perceptions of climate change impacts and responses were conducted in two English regions (East Anglia and north-west England) as part of a UK government-funded research project on the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in the following domains: biodiversity, the coastal zone, agriculture and water resources. The findings suggest that whilst local and regional impacts are of considerable interest to regional stakeholders, their ability to respond through adapted policy and practice depends upon their existing frames of reference with respect to their understanding of the policy- and decision-making systems, and the operation of current institutional processes and response mechanisms. The authors use the empirical and conceptual findings to support the notion of the co-production of knowledge with institutional frameworks and processes.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events Over Flamingo Tropicana Watershed1

Abstract: Climate change, particularly the projected changes to precipitation patterns, is likely to affect runoff both regionally and temporally. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense in the future in arid urban areas and this will likely lead to higher streamflow. Through hydrological modeling, this article simulates an urban basin response to the most intense storm under anthropogenic climate change conditions. This study performs an event‐based simulation for shorter duration storms in the Flamingo Tropicana (FT) watershed in Las Vegas, Nevada. An extreme storm, defined as a 100‐year return period storm, is selected from historical records and perturbed to future climatic conditions with respect to multimodel multiscenario (A1B, A2, B1) bias corrected and spatially disaggregated data from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) database. The cumulative annual precipitation for each 30‐year period shows a continuous decrease from 2011 to 2099; however, the summer convective storms, which are considered as extreme storms for the study area, are expected to be more intense in future. Extreme storm events show larger changes in streamflow under different climate scenarios and time periods. The simulated peak streamflow and total runoff volume shows an increase from 40% to more than 150% (during 2041‐2099) for different climate scenarios. This type of analysis can help evaluate the vulnerability of existing flood control system and flood control policies.     

Population,Development, and Waste Management in Botswana: Conceptual and Policy Implications for Climate Change

Based on government and other relevant documentation, this paper explores the conceptual linkage between population, development, and waste management in Botswana and the implications of this relationship for global climate change. Population is increasing, albeit at a decreasing rate. Spatially, the population is becoming more and more concentrated as the rates and level of urbanization increase. Economic growth has remained consistently high. The combined effect of population dynamics and economic development are having a noticeable imprint on the environment in the form of increased waste generation. Poor waste management poses a real threat to environmental sustainability in general and climate change in particular because of inadequate technology, weak institutional mechanisms to enforce regulations, and low levels of sensitization among the public to deal with the problem. Mitigation measures are suggested to minimize the negative effects of waste management on climate change.     

Pessimism and Optimism in the Debate on Climate Change: A Critical Analysis

Successful transitions to a sustainable bioeconomy require novel technologies, processes, and practices as well as a general agreement about the overarching normative direction of innovation. Both requirements necessarily involve collective action by those individuals who purchase, use, and co-produce novelties: the consumers. Based on theoretical considerations borrowed from evolutionary innovation economics and consumer social responsibility, we explore to what extent consumers’ scope of action is addressed in the scientific bioeconomy literature. We do so by systematically reviewing bioeconomy-related publications according to (i) the extent to which consumers are regarded as passive vs. active, and (ii) different domains of consumer responsibility (depending on their power to influence economic processes). We find all aspects of active consumption considered to varying degrees but observe little interconnection between domains. In sum, our paper contributes to the bioeconomy literature by developing a novel coding scheme that allows us to pinpoint different aspects of consumer activity, which have been considered in a rather isolated and undifferentiated manner. Combined with our theoretical considerations, the results of our review reveal a central research gap which should be taken up in future empirical and conceptual bioeconomy research. The system-spanning nature of a sustainable bioeconomy demands an equally holistic exploration of the consumers’ prospective and shared responsibility for contributing to its coming of age, ranging from the procurement of information on bio-based products and services to their disposal.

     

Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Water Needs in the jaguaribe River Basin1

Gondim, Rubens S., Marco A.H. de Castro, Aline de H.N. Maia, Sílvio R.M. Evangelista, and Sérgio C. de F. Fuck, Jr., 2012. Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Water Needs in the Jaguaribe River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 355‐365. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00620.x Abstract: Climate change is conceptually referred to as a modification to the average of climate variables and their natural variability, due to both natural and anthropogenic driving forces, such as greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change potentially impacts rainfall, temperature, and air humidity, which have relationship with plant evapotranspiration and consequently to irrigation water needs (IWN). The purpose of this research is to assess climate change impacts on irrigation water demand, based on climatic impacts stemming from future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The study area includes eight municipalities in the Jaguaribe River Basin, located in the Ceará State of semiarid northeast Brazil. The FAO Penman‐Monteith method is used for the calculation of a reference evapotranspiration with limited climatic data. IWN projections are calculated using bias‐corrected climate projections for monthly rainfall and surface temperature derived from the United Kingdom’s Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model simulations. The increase in the average IWN is projected to be 7.9 and 9.1% over the period 2025‐2055 for the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively with respect to 1961‐1990 baseline.     

The Occurrence of Unfavorable Thermal Conditions on Human Health in Central Europe and Potential Climate Change Impacts: An Example from Cracow,Poland

Progressive global warming exerts strong influence on the lives and on the health of urban residents, many of who are weather sensitive people (meteoropaths). In the temperate zone, air temperature changes largely determine the seasonal oscillation of morbidity and mortality frequency. The present study analyzes the influence of air temperature on living conditions in central European urban areas, particularly Cracow (Poland), and examines this influence against the background of climate change. During the warmer months, there is a noticeable increase in the unfavorable occurrence of especially strong thermal stimuli (e.g., hot days) which can lead to overheating of the human organism. On the other hand, the increasing frequency of mild winters contributes to the appearance of weak and moderate thermal stimuli, which in the case of the former, is a negative phenomenon. Weak thermal stimuli are liable to make the human body oversensitive and, thus lose the ability to adapt if stronger thermal stimuli were to occur. Residents of large urban areas should be prepared for the possibility of dynamic weather changes and should take thermal variability into consideration with regards to spatial urban planning and socioeconomic activities.     

Contrasting Lumped and Distributed Hydrology Models for Estimating Climate Change Impacts on California Watersheds1

Maurer, Edwin P., Levi D. Brekke, and Tom Pruitt, 2010. Contrasting Lumped and Distributed Hydrology Models for Estimating Climate Change Impacts on California Watersheds. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):1024–1035. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00473.x Abstract: We compare the projected changes to streamflows for three Sierra Nevada rivers using statistically downscaled output from 22 global climate projections. The downscaled meteorological data are used to drive two hydrology models: the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model and the variable infiltration capacity model. These two models differ in their spatial resolution, computational time step, and degree and objective of calibration, thus producing significantly different simulations of current and future streamflow. However, the projected percentage changes in monthly streamflows through mid-21st Century generally did not differ, with the exceptions of streamflow during low flow months, and extreme low flows. These findings suggest that for physically based hydrology models applied to snow-dominated basins in Mediterranean climate regimes like the Sierra Nevada, California, model formulation, resolution, and calibration are secondary factors for estimating projected changes in extreme flows (seasonal or daily). For low flows, hydrology model selection and calibration can be significant factors in assessing impacts of projected climate change.     

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment1

Shrestha, Rajesh R., Yonas B. Dibike, and Terry D. Prowse, 2011. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 74‐89. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00592.x Abstract: This paper presents a modeling study on climate‐induced changes in hydrologic and nutrient fluxes in the Upper Assiniboine catchment, located in the Lake Winnipeg watershed. The hydrologic and agricultural chemical yield model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to model a 21‐year baseline (1980‐2000) and future (2042‐2062) periods with model forcings for future climates derived from three regional climate models (RCMs) and their ensemble means. The modeled future scenarios reveal that potential future changes in the climatic regime are likely to modify considerably hydrologic and nutrient fluxes. The effects of future changes in climatic variables, especially precipitation and temperature, are clearly evident in the resulting snowmelt and runoff regimes. The future hydrologic scenarios consistently show earlier onsets of spring snowmelt and discharge peaks, and higher total runoff volumes. The simulated nutrient loads closely match the dynamics of the future runoff for both nitrogen and phosphorus, in terms of earlier timing of peak loads and higher total loads. However, nutrient concentrations could decrease due to the higher rate of runoff increase. Overall, the effects of these changes on the nutrient transport regime need to be considered together with possible future changes in land use, crop type, fertilizer application, and transformation processes in the receiving water bodies.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins1

Jin, Xin and Venkataramana Sridhar, 2012. Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 197‐220. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00605.x Abstract: In the Pacific Northwest, warming climate has resulted in a lengthened growing season, declining snowpack, and earlier timing of spring runoff. This study characterizes the impact of climate change in two basins in Idaho, the Spokane River and the Boise River basins. We simulated the basin‐scale hydrology by coupling the downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of global climate models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), between 2010 and 2060 and assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in the region. For the Boise River basin, changes in precipitation ranged from ?3.8 to 36%. Changes in temperature were expected to be between 0.02 and 3.9°C. In the Spokane River region, changes in precipitation were expected to be between ?6.7 and 17.9%. Changes in temperature appeared between 0.1 and 3.5°C over a period of the next five decades between 2010 and 2060. Without bias‐correcting the simulated streamflow, in the Boise River basin, change in peak flows (March through June) was projected to range from ?58 to +106 m³/s and, for the Spokane River basin, the range was expected to be from ?198 to +88 m³/s. Both the basins exhibited substantial variability in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and recharge estimates, and this knowledge of possible hydrologic impacts at the watershed scale can help the stakeholders with possible options in their decision‐making process.     

An analysis of urban development and its environmental impact on the Tampa Bay watershed

Urbanization has transformed natural landscapes into anthropogenic impervious surfaces. Urban land use has become a major driving force for land cover and land use change in the Tampa Bay watershed of west-central Florida. This study investigates urban land use change and its impact on the watershed. The spatial and temporal changes, as well as the development density of urban land use are determined by analyzing the impervious surface distribution using Landsat satellite imagery. Population distribution and density are extracted from the 2000 census data. Non-point source pollution parameters used for measuring water quality are analyzed for the sub-drainage basins of Hillsborough County. The relationships between 2002 urban land use, population distribution and their environmental influences are explored using regression analysis against various non-point source pollutant loadings in these sub-drainage basins. The results suggest that strong associations existed between most pollutant loadings and the extent of impervious surface within each sub-drainage basin in 2002. Population density also exhibits apparent correlations with loading rates of several pollutants. Spatial variations of selected non-point source pollutant loadings are also assessed.     

Quantifying Florida Bay Habitat Suitability for Fishes and Invertebrates Under Climate Change Scenarios

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.     

Potential Economic Benefits of Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Future Climate Change

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO₂ emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.