PREDICTION OF PEAK FLOWS ON SMALL WATERSHEDS IN OREGON FOR USE IN CULVERT DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: Using data from 80 Oregon watersheds that ranged in size from 0.54 km² to 27.45 km², equations were developed to predict peak flows for use in culvert design on forest roads. Oregon was divided into six physiographic regions based on previous studies of flood frequency. In each region, data on annual peak flow from gaging stations with more than 20 years of record were analyzed using four flood frequency distributions: type 1 extremal, two parameter-log normal, three parameter-log normal, and log-Pearson type III. The log-Pearson type III distribution was found to be suitable for use in all regions of the State, based on the chi-square goodness-of-fit-test. Flood magnitudes having recurrence intervals of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years were related to physical and climatic characteristics of drainage basins by multiple regression. Drainage basin size was the most important variable in explaining the variation of flood peaks in all regions. Mean basin elevation and mean annual precipitation were also significantly related to flood peaks in two regions of western Oregon. The standard error of the estimate for the regression relationships ranged from 26 to 84 percent.     

FACTORS AFFECTING FLOODS FROM WATERSHEDS IN HUMID REGIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OHIO1

This paper describes the results of a study of hydrologic factors affecting floods from humid region in northeastern Ohio. Statistical multiple correlation analysis was used to relate floods to hydrologic and basin characteristics. Results of the study emphasize that the characteristics of floods from small and large watersheds are so significantly different that the two problems cannot be combined into one solution. The studies show that the most important hydrologic characteristics in large watersheds were: drainage area size and main channel slope. For small watersheds the most important hydrologic characteristics were: drainage area size, rainfall intensity and soil index. For watershed effect by reservoir storage it was found that: (1) small drainage areas are relatively more affected by storage than large drainage areas; (2) storage of less than 25 acre feet per square mile will not have significant effect on the mean annual flood (for drainage area above 70 square miles).     

FACTOR ANALYSIS OF DRAINAGE BASIN PROPERTIES: CLASSIFICATION OF FLOOD BEHAVIOR IN TERMS OF BASIN GEOMORPHOLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Basin parameters such as drainage density, channel slope, shape factors, and a geometric factor were used in a factor analysis of 112 basins in Pennsylvania and surrounding states. Three distinct homogeneous definable groups resulted. Group I basins were those with an area on the order of 100 square miles, low channel slopes, and/or located within the western glaciated portion of Pennsylvania. Watersheds underlain by carbonate rocks or glacial tills constituted Group 11. A main channel slope of greater than 0.017 in a high precipitation area or a small drainage area were the criteria for Group III basins. There exists a continuous range from Group I basins, where absorption was high to the Group III basins where either the storm pattern or the absorbing character of the soils gave a very low absorption.     

GEOMORPHIC PARAMETERS PREDICT HYDROGRAPH CHARACTERISTICS IN THE SOUTHWEST1

ABSTRACT: Critical design characteristics of ephermal runoff such as hydrograph rise time, duration, mean peak discharge, volume, peak-volume ratio, and maximum flood were related to physical basin parameters such as area, shape, slope, drainage density, basin relief, stream length, and combinations of these in intermontane watersheds representative of the Mexican Highland section of the Basin and Range Province. Parameters used were restricted to those easily obtainable from maps or aerial photographs. A parameter expressing basin shape and size was developed which proved to be as accurate a predictor as others used in existing prediction equations tested and was simpler and faster to derive. Simple prediction equations derived for hydrograph characteristics were all significant except for volume at the 5% level; three were significant at the 1% level. Relationships determined are applicable in semi-arid basins of the Southwest up to 60 square miles (155 km²) in area.     

PREDICTION OF TWO-YEAR PEAK STREAM-DISCHARGES USING NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: The cascade correlation neural network was used to predict the two-year peak discharge (Q₂) for major regional river basins of the continental United States (US). Watersheds ranged in size by four orders of magnitude. Results of the neural network predictions ranged from correlations of 0.73 for 104 test data in the Souris-Red Rainy river basin to 0.95 for 141 test data in California. These results are improvements over previous multilinear regressions involving more variables that showed correlations ranging from 0.26 to 0.94. Results are presented for neural networks trained and tested on drainage area, average annual precipitation, and mean basin elevation. A neural network trained on regional scale data in the Texas Gulf was comparable to previous estimates of Q₂ by regression. Our research shows Q₂ was difficult to predict for the Souris-Red Rainy, Missouri, and Rio Grande river basins compared to the rest of the US, and acceptable predictions could be made using only mean basin elevation and drainage areas of watersheds.     

Application of Index Procedures to Flood Frequency Analysis in Turkey1

Abstract: This study investigates the regional analysis of annual maximum flood series of 48 stream gauging stations in the basins of the West Mediterranean Region in Turkey. The region is divided into three homogeneous subregions according to both Student‐t test and Dalrymple homogeneity test. The regional relationships of mean annual flood per unit area‐drainage area and coefficient of skew‐coefficient of variation are obtained. Two statistically meaningful relationships of the mean flood per unit area‐drainage area and a unique relationship between skewness and variation coefficients exist. Results show that the index‐flood method may be applicable to each homogenous subregion to estimate flood quantiles in the study area.     

USE OF HISTORIC FLOOD INFORMATION IN ESTIMATING FLOOD PEAKS ON UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

Regional procedures to estimate flood magnitudes for ungaged watersheds typically ignore available site-specific historic flood information such as high water marks and the corresponding flow estimates, otherwise referred to as limited site-specific historic (LSSH) flood data. A procedure to construct flood frequency curves on the basis of LSSH flood observations is presented. Simple inverse variance weighting is employed to systematically combine flood estimates obtained from the LSSH data base with those from a regional procedure to obtain improved estimtes of flood peaks on the ungaged watershed. For the region studied, the variance weighted estimates of flow had a lower logarithmic standard error than either the regional or the LSSH flow estimates, when compared to the estimates determined by three standard distributions for gaged watersheds investigated in the development of the methodology. Use of the simple inverse variance weighting procedure is recommended when “reliable” estimates of LSSH floods for the ungaged site are available.     

Topographic Effects on Soil Organic Carbon in Louisiana Watersheds

Terrestrial carbon storage is influenced by a number of environmental factors, among which topographic and geomorphological features are of special significance. This study was designed to examine the relationships of soil organic carbon (SOC) density to various terrain parameters and watershed characteristics across Louisiana, USA. A polygon data set of 484 watersheds and 12 river drainage basins for Louisiana was used to form the landscape units. SOC densities were calculated for each soil map unit using the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) database. Average drainage densities and average slopes at watershed and basin scales were quantified with the 1:24 K Digital Elevation Models (DEM) data, and the Louisiana hydrographic water features. Correlation and regression analyses were performed to determine relationships among drainage density, slope, elevation, and SOC. The study found an average watershed drainage density of 1.6 km/km² and an average watershed slope of 2.9 degrees in Louisiana. The results revealed that SOC density at both watershed and basin scales was closely related to drainage density, slope, and elevation. SOC density was positively correlated with watershed drainage density, but negatively correlated with watershed slope gradient and elevation. Regression models were developed for predicting SOC density at watershed and basin scales, obtaining regression coefficients (r ²) ranging from 0.43 to 0.83. The study showed that estimation of SOC at watershed and drainage basin scales combining DEM data can be a feasible approach to improve the understanding of the relationships among SOC, topographic, and geomorphological features.     

FORESTS AND OTHER FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH STREAMFLOWS IN EAST TEXAS1

Effects of proportion of watersheds in forest and watershed physiographic factors on mean annual streamflow (1965-76), median flow, and 12 flood flow characteristics were regionally analyzed for 19 unregulated streams in East Texas. Annual streamflow increased with decreasing proportion of forest area. Differences in annual streamflow between full forest cover and bare watersheds could be as much as 200 mm. Other things being equal, the minimum watershed area required to generate 0.142 cm (5 cfs), a criterion used by the U.S. Corps of Engineering in regulating dredge and fill activity for water pollution abatement in East Texas streams, is 70 km² (27 mi²). Of the 31 physio-climatic parameters analyzed, watershed area, percent forest area, shape index, spring precipitation, and annual temperature were the most significant in affecting streamflow characteristics in East Texas. Using 2-3 of these five variables, all of the 14 streamflow characteristics can be estimated with accuracy ranging from acceptable to excellent levels.     

Delineation and evaluation of hydrologic-landscape regions in the United States using geographic information system tools and multivariate statistical analyses

Hydrologic-landscape regions in the United States were delineated by using geographic information system (GIS) tools combined with principal components and cluster analyses. The GIS and statistical analyses were applied to land-surface form, geologic texture (permeability of the soil and bedrock), and climate variables that describe the physical and climatic setting of 43,931 small (approximately 200 km2) watersheds in the United States. (The term "watersheds" is defined in this paper as the drainage areas of tributary streams, headwater streams, and stream segments lying between two confluences.) The analyses grouped the watersheds into 20 noncontiguous regions based on similarities in land-surface form, geologic texture, and climate characteristics. The percentage of explained variance (R-squared value) in an analysis of variance was used to compare the hydrologic-landscape regions to 19 square geometric regions and the 21 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency level-II ecoregions. Hydrologic-landscape regions generally were better than ecoregions at delineating regions of distinct land-surface form and geologic texture. Hydrologic-landscape regions and ecoregions were equally effective at defining regions in terms of climate, land cover, and water-quality characteristics. For about half of the landscape, climate, and water-quality characteristics, the R-squared values of square geometric regions were as high as hydrologic-landscape regions or ecoregions.     

Evidence for Changing Flood Risk in New England Since the Late 20th Century1

Abstract: Long‐term flow records for watersheds with minimal human influence have shown trends in recent decades toward increasing streamflow at regional and national scales, especially for low flow quantiles like the annual minimum and annual median flows. Trends for high flow quantiles are less clear, despite recent research showing increased precipitation in the conterminous United States over the last century that has been brought about primarily by an increased frequency and intensity of events in the upper 10th percentile of the daily precipitation distribution – particularly in the Northeast. This study investigates trends in 28 long‐term annual flood series for New England watersheds with dominantly natural streamflow. The flood series are an average of 75 years in length and are continuous through 2006. Twenty‐five series show upward trends via the nonparametric Mann‐Kendall test, 40% (10) of which are statistically significant (p < 0.1). Moreover, an average standardized departures series for 23 of the study gages indicates that increasing flood magnitudes in New England occurred as a step change around 1970. The timing of this is broadly synchronous with a phase change in the low frequency variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, a prominent upper atmospheric circulation pattern that is known to effect climate variability along the United States east coast. Identifiable hydroclimatic shifts should be considered when the affected flow records are used for flood frequency analyses. Special treatment of the flood series can improve the analyses and provide better estimates of flood magnitudes and frequencies under the prevailing hydroclimatic condition.     

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELED SURPLUS AND USGS-MEASURED DISCHARGE IN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN BASIN,LOUISIANA1

ABSTRACT: A one-layer decreasing-availability monthly water balance model is used to estimate monthly surplus that flows into the Lake Pontchartrain Basin from the Amite, Tickfaw, Natalbany, Tangipahoa, and Tchefuncte Rivers for water years 1949 through 1990. The modeled annual surplus for each drainage basin is compared to gauged annual discharge obtained from the United States Geological Survey. This provides an estimate of the differential success of the model over watersheds of various sizes, and also suggests appropriate adjustment factors to be used in future water balance analyses of similar basins in humid subtropical climate regions. Results show that annual surplus values agree well with the USGS values, after an annual adjustment of about 140 mm (11 to 28 percent of the basin surplus) is subtracted from the annual modeled totals to compensate for overestimation by the model. However, inter-annual variability is high in the annual cycles. Winter and spring discharges can also be modeled successfully.     

MINE DRAINAGE AND ROCK TYPE INFLUENCES ON EASTERN OHIO STREAM WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Stream water during fair weather (base flow) is largely ground water discharge, which has been in contact with minerals of the underlying aquifer. Base flow water quality should therefore reflect aquifer mineralogy as well as upstream land use. Three upstream mining categories (unmined lands, abandoned coal mines, and reclaimed coal mines) differed in pH, specific conductance, sulfate, iron, aluminum, and alkalinity for 122 streams in eastern Ohio. Aquifer rock type influenced pH, specific conductance, sulfate, iron, and alkalinity. Reclamation returned many components of acid mine drainage to near unmined levels, although sulfate and specific conductance were not improved. Acid mine drainage problems were less severe in watersheds underlain by the calcareous Monogahela Formation. These results should ayply to other Appalachian coal regions having similar rock units. The water quality data distributions were neither consistently normal nor lognormal. Statistical tests utilizing ranks of the water quality data, instead of the data themselves, proved useful in analyzing the influences of mining category and rock type.     

Use of Streamflow Data to Estimate Base Flow/Ground‐Water Recharge For Wisconsin1

Abstract: The average annual base flow/recharge was determined for streamflow‐gaging stations throughout Wisconsin by base‐flow separation. A map of the State was prepared that shows the average annual base flow for the period 1970‐99 for watersheds at 118 gaging stations. Trend analysis was performed on 22 of the 118 streamflow‐gaging stations that had long‐term records, unregulated flow, and provided aerial coverage of the State. The analysis found that a statistically significant increasing trend was occurring for watersheds where the primary land use was agriculture. Most gaging stations where the land cover was forest had no significant trend. A method to estimate the average annual base flow at ungaged sites was developed by multiple‐regression analysis using basin characteristics. The equation with the lowest standard error of estimate, 9.5%, has drainage area, soil infiltration and base flow factor as independent variables. To determine the average annual base flow for smaller watersheds, estimates were made at low‐flow partial‐record stations in 3 of the 12 major river basins in Wisconsin. Regression equations were developed for each of the three major river basins using basin characteristics. Drainage area, soil infiltration, basin storage and base‐flow factor were the independent variables in the regression equations with the lowest standard error of estimate. The standard error of estimate ranged from 17% to 52% for the three river basins.     

TOTAL SOLUTES LOADS AND GEOCHEMICAL YIELDS IN THE SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: River solute loads have seldom been measured in very large, complex drainage basins, nor have the methods of calculating loads been critically examined. For sites in the Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada, rating curves were poor predictors of solute loads because correlations between discharge and total solutes concentration were weak (R² < 0.05 in most cases) and suffered from hysteresis. In contrast, the interval method produced reliable estimates in all seasons and sites tested, and was little affected by sampling schedule. The limit of precision (SE) for estimates of mean annual or seasonal solute load was 10–15 percent of the mean (5 percent in very small basins), reached with 10 years or more of data. Two-thirds or more of total annual solute load was transported during the open-water season, but the proportion carried during winter increased from 8 percent to 34 percent from the upstream to the downstream end of the basin, due to reservoirs retaining and mixing water. Annual loads of total solutes varied from 6.2 × 10⁴ tonnes in foothills tributaries to almost 4.0 × 10⁶ tonnes in the Saskatchewan River near the mouth. But, on an areal basis, the mountain and foothills region was the dominant solute source, producing 43–97 tonnes/km²/yr, compared with only 3–22 tonnes/km²/yr for prairie rivers. This difference is a consequence of greater rainfall and, hence, more rapid erosion in the mountains.     

REGIONALIZATION AND PREDICTION OF ANNUAL FLOODS IN THE FRASER RIVER CATCHMENT,BRITISH COLUMBIA1

A method of predicting probability distributions of annual floods is presented and is applied to the Fraser River catchment of British Columbia. The Gumbel distribution is found to adequately describe the observed flood frequency data. Using the estimated Gumbel parameters, discriminant analysis is performed to separate basins into flood regions. Within each region, regression analysis is used to relate physiographic and climatic variables to the means and standard deviations of the annual flood series. The regression equations are applied to four test basins and the results indicate that the method is suitable for an estimation of annual floods.     

NONPOINT SOURCE DISCHARGES OF NUTRIENTS FROM PIEDMONT WATERSHEDS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY1

ABSTRACT: We measured annual discharges of water, sediments, and nutrients from 10 watersheds with differing proportions of agricultural lands in the Piedmont physiographic province of the Chesapeake Bay drainage. Flow-weighted mean concentrations of total N, nitrate, and dissolved silicate in watershed discharges were correlated with the proportion of cropland in the watershed. In contrast, concentrations of P species did not correlate with cropland. Organic P and C correlated with the concentration of suspended particles, which differed among watersheds. Thus, the ratio of N:P:Si in discharges differed greatly among watersheds, potentially affecting N, P or Si limitation of phytoplankton growth in the receiving waters. Simple regression models of N discharge versus the percentage of cropland suggest that croplands discharge 29–42 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1 and other lands discharge 1.2–5.8 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1. We estimated net anthropogenic input of N to croplands and other lands using county level data on agriculture and N deposition from the atmosphere. For most of the study watersheds, N discharge amounted to less than half of the net anthropogenic N.     

A Hydrologic Data Screening Procedure for Exploring Monotonic Trends and Shifts in Rainfall and Runoff Patterns

A thorough understanding of past and present hydrologic responses to changes in precipitation patterns is crucial for predicting future conditions. The main objectives of this study were to determine temporal changes in rainfall‐runoff relationship and to identify significant trends and abrupt shifts in rainfall and runoff time series. Ninety‐year rainfall and runoff time series datasets from the Gasconade and Meramec watersheds in east‐central Missouri were used to develop data screening procedure to assess changes in the rainfall and runoff temporal patterns. A statistically significant change in mean and variance was detected in 1980 in the rainfall and runoff time series within both watersheds. In addition, both the rainfall and runoff time series indicated the presence of nonstationary attributes such as statistically significant monotonic trends and/or change in mean and variance, which should be taken into consideration when using the time series to predict future scenarios. The annual peak runoff and the annual low flow in the Meramec watershed showed significant temporal changes compared to that in the Gasconade watershed. Water loss in both watersheds was found to be significantly increasing which is potentially due to the increase in groundwater pumping for water supply purposes.     

Estimation of Nonpoint Source Nitrate Concentrations in Indiana Rivers Based on Agricultural Drainage in the Watershed

Subsurface tile‐drained agricultural fields are known to be important contributors to nitrate in surface water in the Midwest, but the effect of these fields on nitrate at the watershed scale is difficult to quantify. Data for 25 watersheds monitored by the Indiana Department of Environmental Management and located near a U.S. Geological Survey stream gage were used to investigate the relationship between flow‐weighted mean concentration (FWMC) of nitrate‐N and the subsurface tile‐drained area (DA) of the watershed. The tile DA was estimated from soil drainage class, land use, and slope. Nitrate loads from point sources were estimated based on reported flows of major permitted facilities with mean nitrate‐N concentrations from published sources. Linear regression models exhibited a statistically significant relationship between annual/monthly nonpoint source (NPS) nitrate‐N and DA percentage. The annual model explained 71% of the variation in FWMC of nitrate‐N. The annual and monthly models were tested in 10 additional watersheds, most with absolute errors within 1 mg/l in the predicted FWMC. These models can be used to estimate NPS nitrate for unmonitored watersheds in similar areas, especially for drained agricultural areas where model performance was strongest, and to predict the nitrate reduction when various tile drainage management techniques are employed.     

HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE OF MASSACHUSETTS WATERSHEDS1

Hydrologic response, defined as the annual direct runoff divided by the annual precipitation, was computed for twenty-one watersheds in or near western Massachusetts, using a total of 232 years of hydrologic records. Variability of the results over the period of analysis was greater than is desirable to inspire confidence in the usefulness of the hydrologic response function; however, the results do suggest that the hydrologic response concept, with appropriate refinements, could be applied successfully to the problem of delineating hydrologic provinces and determination of drainage and storage in unregulated watersheds.