Analysis and Predictive Models of Single‐Family Customer Response to Water Curtailments During Drought1

Polebitski, Austin S. and Richard N. Palmer, 2012. Analysis and Predictive Models of Single‐Family Customer Response to Water Curtailments During Drought. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐12. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00691.x Abstract: This research investigates customer response to demand management strategies during two drought periods in the City of Seattle. An analysis of customer response to voluntary water curtailments is conducted using k‐means clustering to identify like groups of customers and behavior patterns. The clustering method identified important variables (household income, lot size, living space, and family size) useful in determining customer response to water curtailments. Ordinary least squares and spatial lag regression models are estimated using the first and second principal components of variables identified in the clustering analysis. Larger values of income, lot size, and living space enhanced water reductions whereas larger family size tended to reduce the effectiveness of curtailments. Projections of changes in Seattle’s built environment and demographics between 2000 and 2030 were obtained from an urban simulation model (UrbanSim) and were processed through the regression models to investigate changes in future curtailment effectiveness. This research found that increasing household size hardened demands (decreased curtailment effectiveness) whereas decreasing household size increased per‐capita curtailment effectiveness. These results suggest that changes in the number of residents within a home is likely to be the most important factor in determining future curtailment effectiveness.     

A Decision‐Analytic Approach to Managing Climate Risks: Application to the Upper Great Lakes1

Brown, Casey, William Werick, Wendy Leger, and David Fay, 2011. A Decision‐Analytic Approach to Managing Climate Risks: Application to the Upper Great Lakes. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):524‐534. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00552.x Abstract: In this paper, we present a risk analysis and management process designed for use in water resources planning and management under climate change. The process incorporates climate information through a method called decision‐scaling, whereby information related to climate projections is tailored for use in a decision‐analytic framework. The climate risk management process begins with the identification of vulnerabilities by asking stakeholders and resource experts what water conditions they could cope with and which would require substantial policy or investment shifts. The identified vulnerabilities and thresholds are formalized with a water resources systems model that relates changes in the physical climate conditions to the performance metrics corresponding to vulnerabilities. The irreducible uncertainty of climate change projections is addressed through a dynamic management plan embedded within an adaptive management process. Implementation of the process is described as applied in the ongoing International Upper Great Lakes Study.     

A Web‐Based Decision Support System for Assessing Regional Water‐Quality Conditions and Management Actions1

Booth, Nathaniel L., Eric J. Everman, I‐Lin Kuo, Lori Sprague, and Lorraine Murphy, 2011. A Web‐Based Decision Support System for Assessing Regional Water‐Quality Conditions and Management Actions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1136‐1150. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00573.x Abstract: The U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Program has completed a number of water‐quality prediction models for nitrogen and phosphorus for the conterminous United States as well as for regional areas of the nation. In addition to estimating water‐quality conditions at unmonitored streams, the calibrated SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models can be used to produce estimates of yield, flow‐weighted concentration, or load of constituents in water under various land‐use condition, change, or resource management scenarios. A web‐based decision support infrastructure has been developed to provide access to SPARROW simulation results on stream water‐quality conditions and to offer sophisticated scenario testing capabilities for research and water‐quality planning via a graphical user interface with familiar controls. The SPARROW decision support system (DSS) is delivered through a web browser over an Internet connection, making it widely accessible to the public in a format that allows users to easily display water‐quality conditions and to describe, test, and share modeled scenarios of future conditions. SPARROW models currently supported by the DSS are based on the modified digital versions of the 1:500,000‐scale River Reach File (RF1) and 1:100,000‐scale National Hydrography Dataset (medium‐resolution, NHDPlus) stream networks.     

A Knowledge-Based Systems Approach to Design of Spatial Decision Support Systems for Environmental Management

/ This paper describes a framework for designing spatial decision support systems for environmental management using a knowledge-based systems approach. An architecture for knowledge-based spatial decision supportsystems (KBSDSS) is presented that integrates knowledge-based systems with geographical information systems (GIS) and other problem-solving techniques. A method based on spatial influence diagrams is developed for representation of environmental problems. The spatial influence diagram provides an interface through which knowledge-based systems techniques can be applied to build capabilities for problem formulation, automated design, and execution of a solution process. In addition to the flexibility and developmental advantages of knowledge-based systems, the KBSDSS incorporates expert knowledge to provide assistance for structuring spatial influence diagrams and executing a solution process that automatically integrates the GIS, data base, knowledge base, and different types of models. The framework is illustrated with a system, known as the Islay Land Use Decision Support System (ILUDSS), designed to assist planners in strategic planning of land use for the development of the island of Islay, off the west coast of Scotland.KEY WORDS: Geographical information systems; Spatial decision support systems; Knowledge-based systems; Spatial influence diagrams; Environmental management     

Assessing Effectiveness of National Flood Policy Through Spatiotemporal Monitoring of Socioeconomic Exposure1

Abstract: After a century of evolving flood policies, there has been a steady increase in flood losses, which has partly been driven by development in flood prone areas. National flood policy was revised in 1994 to focus on limiting and reducing the amount of development inside the 100‐year floodplain, with the goal of decreasing flood losses, which can be measured and quantified in terms of population and property value inside the 100‐year floodplain. Monitoring changes in these measurable indicators can inform where and how effective national floodplain management strategies have been. National flood policies are restricted to the spatial extent of the 100‐year floodplain, thus there are no development regulations to protect against flooding adjacent to this boundary. No consistent monitoring has been undertaken to examine the effect of flood policy on development immediately outside the 100‐year floodplain. We developed a standardized methodology, which leveraged national data to quantify changes in population and building tax value (exposure). We applied this approach to counties in North Carolina to assess (1) temporal changes, before and after the 1994 policy and (2) spatial changes, inside and adjacent to the 100‐year floodplain. Temporal results indicate the Piedmont and Mountain Region had limited success at reducing exposure within the 100‐year floodplain, while the Coastal Plain successfully reduced exposure. Spatially, there was a significant increase in exposure immediately outside the 100‐year floodplain throughout North Carolina. The lack of consistent monitoring has resulted in the continuation of this unintended consequence, which could be a significant driver of increased flood losses as any flood even slightly higher than the 100‐year floodplain will have a disproportionately large impact since development is outside the legal boundary of national flood policy.     

Spatial Dynamics of Soil Moisture in a Complex Terrain in the Semi‐Arid Loess Plateau Region,China1

Abstract: Soil moisture is an important hydrological variable in reforestation practices in a water‐limited region of the Loess Plateau of northwestern China. The objective of this study was to quantify the spatial dynamics of soil moisture on a complex terrain. During 2004‐2006, a total of 313 sample points in two kinds of grid (2 × 2 m and 20 × 20 m) were arranged for soil moisture measurements (two soil layers: 0‐30 and 30‐60 cm) with Time Domain Reflectometry. The geostatistical properties of soil moisture patterns, the variance and correlation structure of the soil moisture, and the effects of terrain factors on soil moisture were analyzed. The results suggested that our sampling grid captured the spatial variability of soil moisture distributions for this complex terrain. Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis statistics showed that soil moisture decreased as slope gradient increased; that sunny aspects (112.5°‐292.5°) had relatively lower soil moisture than did shady aspects (292.5°‐112.5°); that soil moisture was lowest in the SWW direction and highest in the NWN direction; and that hillslope aspect was the main factor affecting soil moisture in the 0‐ to 30‐cm soil layer, whereas the main factor for the 30‐ to 60‐cm layer was slope gradient. It was found that the relative values of soil moisture for steep slopes (>36%) with shady aspect (292.5°‐112.5°), gentle slopes (<36%) with sunny aspect (112.5°‐292.5°), and steep slopes with sunny aspect were 99, 82, and 80, respectively – assuming a soil moisture value of 100 for gentle slopes with shady aspect. The results of this study are expected to be relevant to and useful for reforestation planning and design, parameterization of distributed hydrology models, and land productivity assessment in the study region.     

Effects of Urban Spatial Structure,Sociodemographics, and Climate on Residential Water Consumption in Hillsboro,Oregon1

House-Peters, Lily, Bethany Pratt, and Heejun Chang, 2010. Effects of Urban Spatial Structure, Sociodemographics, and Climate on Residential Water Consumption in Hillsboro, Oregon. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):461-472. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00415.x Abstract: In the Portland metropolitan area, suburban growth in cities such as Hillsboro is projected to increase as people seek affordable housing near a burgeoning metropolis. The most significant determinants for increases in water demand are population growth, climate change, and the type of urban development that occurs. This study analyzes the spatial patterns of single family residential (SFR) water consumption in Hillsboro, Oregon, at the census block scale. The following research questions are addressed: (1) What are the significant determinants of SFR water consumption in Hillsboro, Oregon? (2) Is SFR water demand sensitive to drought conditions and interannual climate variation? (3) To what magnitude do particular census blocks react to drought conditions and interannual climate variation? Using ordinary least squares multiple regression and spatial regression methods, we found that base use, representing indoor water use, is dependent on household size and that seasonal use, representing external water use is dependent on both education level and the size of the property’s outdoor space. Spatial analysis techniques determined that although the water demand of the study area as a whole is not sensitive to drought conditions, certain individual census blocks do respond with a higher magnitude of water use. The most climate-sensitive census blocks tend to contain newer and larger homes, and have higher property values and more affluent and well-educated residents.     

Effect of the Spatial Variability of Land Use,Soil Type,and Precipitation on Streamflows in Small Watersheds1

Abstract: The spatial variability of the data used in models includes the spatial discretization of the system into subsystems, the data resolution, and the spatial distribution of hydrologic features and parameters. In this study, we investigate the effect of the spatial distribution of land use, soil type, and precipitation on the simulated flows at the outlet of “small watersheds” (i.e., watersheds with times of concentration shorter than the model computational time step). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was used to estimate runoff and hydrographs. Different representations of the spatial data resulted in comparable model performances and even the use of uniform land use and soil type maps, instead of spatially distributed, was not noticeable. It was found that, although spatially distributed data help understand the characteristics of the watershed and provide valuable information to distributed hydrologic models, when the watershed is small, realistic representations of the spatial data do not necessarily improve the model performance. The results obtained from this study provide insights on the relevance of taking into account the spatial distribution of land use, soil type, and precipitation when modeling small watersheds.     

Nonstationary Water Planning: An Overview of Several Promising Planning Methods1

Waage, Marc D. and Laurna Kaatz, 2011. Nonstationary Water Planning: An Overview of Several Promising Planning Methods. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):535‐540. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00547.x Abstract: Climate change is challenging the way water utilities plan for the future. Observed warming and climate model projections now call into question the stability of future water quantity and quality. As water utilities cope with preparing for the large range of possible changes in climate and the resulting impacts on their water systems, many are searching for planning techniques to help them consider multiple possible conditions to better prepare for a different, more uncertain, future. Many utilities need these techniques because they cannot afford to delay significant decisions while waiting for scientific improvements to narrow the range of potential climate change impacts. Several promising methods are being tested in water utility planning and presented here for other water utilities to consider. The methods include traditional scenario planning, classic decision making, robust decision making, real options, and portfolio planning. Unfortunately, for utilities vulnerable to climate change impacts, there is no one‐size‐fits‐all planning solution. Every planning process must be tailored to the needs and capabilities of the individual utility.     

Surface‐Water Nutrient Conditions and Sources in the United States Pacific Northwest1

Wise, Daniel R. and Henry M. Johnson, 2011. Surface‐Water Nutrient Conditions and Sources in the United States Pacific Northwest. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1110‐1135. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00580.x Abstract: The SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model was used to perform an assessment of surface‐water nutrient conditions and to identify important nutrient sources in watersheds of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (U.S.) for the year 2002. Our models included variables representing nutrient sources as well as landscape characteristics that affect nutrient delivery to streams. Annual nutrient yields were higher in watersheds on the wetter, west side of the Cascade Range compared to watersheds on the drier, east side. High nutrient enrichment (relative to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s recommended nutrient criteria) was estimated in watersheds throughout the region. Forest land was generally the largest source of total nitrogen stream load and geologic material was generally the largest source of total phosphorus stream load generated within the 12,039 modeled watersheds. These results reflected the prevalence of these two natural sources and the low input from other nutrient sources across the region. However, the combined input from agriculture, point sources, and developed land, rather than natural nutrient sources, was responsible for most of the nutrient load discharged from many of the largest watersheds. Our results provided an understanding of the regional patterns in surface‐water nutrient conditions and should be useful to environmental managers in future water‐quality planning efforts.     

Prediction of Crop Production using Drought indices at Different Time Scales and Climatic Factors to Manage Drought Risk1

Sadat Noori, S.M., A.M. Liaghat, and K. Ebrahimi, 2011. Prediction of Crop Production Using Drought Indices at Different Time Scales and Climatic Factors to Manage Drought Risk. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 1‐9. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00586.x Abstract: Drought causes great damage to rainfed and irrigated farming. Therefore, prediction of crop production during the drought period is essential in order to manage drought risk. Thus, proceeding to agricultural drought risk management can be very useful. This study shows the results of early crop prediction using the combination of climate factors and drought indices at different time scales. The study region was Hamadan, a semiarid region in Iran. The methodology demonstrated here has allowed the prediction of production several months before harvest. Moreover, the predictive models constructed have explained 89% of the temporal variability of wheat production. This method could be very efficient for managing crop production. Moreover, having clear prediction, decision makers can plan better for overcoming drought impacts to reduce crop uncertainty for farmers in insurance companies.     

Model Development and Calibration of a Saltwater Intrusion Model in Southern California1

Abstract: A nine‐layered confined‐unconfined flow and transport model is developed for the Alamitos saltwater intrusion barrier in Southern California. The conceptual model is based on the geological structure of the coastal aquifer system. The key parameters in the flow and transport models are calibrated using a two‐phase procedure which matches the types of data available for calibration. Because of the abundance of point measurements of hydraulic conductivity, the heterogeneous and random hydraulic conductivity field for each of the five aquifers is estimated by the geostatiscal method of natural‐neighbor‐kriging in Phase 1. In Phase 2, the longitudinal and transverse dispersivities in the transport model are estimated by a traditional inverse procedure that minimizes the least‐squares error for concentration (LSE‐CON). The minimum LSE‐CON is achieved near 15.2 and 1.52 m for the longitudinal and transverse dispersivities, respectively. Additional simulations with increasing transport parameter complexity did not yield significant improvements in LSE‐CON. Also, tracking least‐squares error for head while parametrically varying the transport parameters revealed there is a negligible interaction between predicted head and transport parameters.     

Modeling Stream Channel Characteristics From Drainage‐Enforced DEMs in Puget Sound,Washington, USA1

Abstract: Mapping stream channels and their geomorphic attributes is an important step in many watershed research and management projects. Often insufficient field data exist to map hydromorphologic attributes across entire drainage basins, necessitating the application of hydrologic modeling tools to digital elevation models (DEMs) via a geographic information system (GIS). In this article, we demonstrate methods for deriving synthetic stream networks via GIS across large and diverse basins using drainage‐enforced DEMs, along with techniques for estimating channel widths and gradient on the reach scale. The two‐step drainage enforcement method we used produced synthetic stream networks that displayed a high degree of positional accuracy relative to the input streams. The accuracies of our estimated channel parameters were assessed with field data, and predictions of bankfull width, wetted width and gradient were strongly correlated with measured values (r² = 0.92, r² = 0.95, r² = 0.88, respectively). Classification accuracies of binned channel attributes were also high. Our methodology allows for the relatively rapid mapping of stream channels and associated morphological attributes across large geographic areas. Although initially developed to provide salmon recovery planners with important salmon habitat information, we suggest these methodologies are relevant to a variety of research and management questions.     

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation,Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi1

Frey, Ashley E., Francisco Olivera, Jennifer L. Irish, Lauren M. Dunkin, James M. Kaihatu, Celso M. Ferreira, and Billy L. Edge, 2010. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation, Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–11. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00475.x Abstract: The effect of climate change on storm-surge flooding and the implications for population and structural damages on the city of Corpus Christi, Texas, was investigated. The study considered the influence of sea level rise and hurricane intensification, both influenced by climate change. Combinations of future carbon dioxide equivalent emission rates and carbon dioxide doubling sensitivities, based on findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were considered to define future climate scenarios. A suite of physically based numerical models for hurricane winds and the resulting waves, surge, and morphological change at the coast were used to determine flooded areas, population affected, and property damages for Hurricanes Bret, Beulah, and a version of Carla shifted south from its original track, under present and predicted future climate conditions. A comparison of the economic damages for current climate conditions and for the 2080s climate scenario shows that, for Carla (shifted), there will be an increase in the range of $270-1,100 million; for Beulah, of $100-390 million; and, for Bret, of $30-280 million. A similar analysis was also conducted for 2030s predicted climate scenarios. Overall, the comparison of the results for the different climate conditions indicates what the destructive consequences of climate change could be, even within the somewhat short time frame of 80 years considered here.     

Farmer decision making and spatial variables in northern Thailand

This research has two interrelated objectives. The first is to determine the extent to which a relationship exists between farmer characteristics and farming practices in three villages in northern Thailand. The second is to use standard statistical methods for incorporating spatial variables into the analysis and to assess the effects of these variables on farmer decision making. The data base includes information on the location and size of villages, roads, streams, and fields; a digital elevation model with information on elevation, slope, and aspect; and information keyed to individual fields on crops and cropping methods and the ethnicity, income, and religion of farmers. The map data (517 plots) were entered into a computerized geographic information systems (GIS). Results suggest several hypotheses about the relationships between land use and owner characteristics. More significantly, the study concludes that spatial analysis appears to be most useful when the dependent variable is either continuous or ordinal. The outlook is not quite as optimistic when the dependent variable is a nonordinal categorical variable. Before spatial analysis can be applied regularly to social science data, better computational tools need to be developed.     

The 2007‐2009 Drought in Athens,Georgia, United States: A Climatological Analysis and an Assessment of Future Water Availability1

Campana, Pete, John Knox, Andrew Grundstein, and John Dowd, 2012. The 2007‐2009 Drought in Athens, Georgia, United States: A Climatological Analysis and an Assessment of Future Water Availability. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 379‐390. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00619.x Abstract: Population growth and development in many regions of the world increase the demand for water and vulnerability to water shortages. Our research provides a case study of how population growth can augment the severity of a drought. During 2007‐2009, a drought event that caused extreme societal impacts occurred in the Athens, Georgia region (defined as Clarke, Barrow, Oconee, and Jackson counties). An examination of drought indices and precipitation records indicates that conditions were severe, but not worse than during the 1925‐1927, 1954‐1956, and 1985‐1987 drought events. A drought of similar length to the 2007‐2009 drought would be expected to occur approximately every 25 years. Streamflow analysis shows that discharge levels in area streams were at a record low during 2007 before water restrictions were implemented, because of greater water usage caused by recent population increases. These population increases, combined with a lack of water conservation, led to severe water shortages in the Athens region during late 2007. Only after per capita usage decreased did water resources last despite continuing drought conditions through 2009. Retaining mitigation strategies and withdrawal levels such as seen during the height of the drought will be an essential strategy to prevent water shortages during future extreme drought events. The key mitigation strategy, independent local action to restrict water use in advance of state‐level restrictions, is now prohibited by Georgia State Law.