Improving cross-sectoral climate change adaptation for coastal settlements: insights from South East Queensland,Australia

Climate change impacts affecting coastal areas, such as sea-level rise and storm surge events, are expected to have significant social, economic and environmental consequences worldwide. Ongoing population growth and development in highly urbanised coastal areas will exacerbate the predicted impacts on coastal settlements. Improving the adaptation potential of highly vulnerable coastal communities will require greater levels of planning and policy integration across sectors and scales. However, to date, there is little evidence in the literature which demonstrates how climate policy integration is being achieved. This paper contributes to this gap in knowledge by drawing on the example provided by the process of developing cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes generated for three coastal settlement types as part of the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI), a 3-year multi-sectoral study of climate change adaptation options for human settlements in South East Queensland, Australia. In doing so, we first investigate the benefits and challenges to cross-sectoral adaptation to address climate change broadly and in coastal areas. We then describe how cross-sectoral adaptation policies and programmes were generated and appraised involving the sectors of urban planning and management, coastal management, emergency management, human health and physical infrastructure as part of SEQCARI. The paper concludes by discussing key considerations that can inform the development and assessment of cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes in highly urbanised coastal areas.     

Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe

Climate change will affect all sectors of society and the environment at all scales, ranging from the continental to the national and local. Decision-makers and other interested citizens need to be able to access reliable science-based information to help them respond to the risks of climate change impacts and assess opportunities for adaptation. Participatory integrated assessment (IA) tools combine knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines, take account of the value and importance of stakeholder ‘lay insight’ and facilitate a two-way iterative process of exploration of ‘what if’s’ to enable decision-makers to test ideas and improve their understanding of the complex issues surrounding adaptation to climate change. This paper describes the conceptual design of a participatory IA tool, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, based on a professionally facilitated stakeholder engagement process. The CLIMSAVE (climate change integrated methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe) Platform is a user-friendly, interactive web-based tool that allows stakeholders to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors, including agriculture, forests, biodiversity, coasts, water resources and urban development. The linking of models for the different sectors enables stakeholders to see how their interactions could affect European landscape change. The relationship between choice, uncertainty and constraints is a key cross-cutting theme in the conduct of past participatory IA. Integrating scenario development processes with an interactive modelling platform is shown to allow the exploration of future uncertainty as a structural feature of such complex problems, encouraging stakeholders to explore adaptation choices within real-world constraints of future resource availability and environmental and institutional capacities, rather than seeking the ‘right’ answers.     

Putting vulnerability to climate change on the map: a review of approaches, benefits, and risks

There is growing demand among stakeholders across public and private institutions for spatially-explicit information regarding vulnerability to climate change at the local scale. However, the challenges associated with mapping the geography of climate change vulnerability are non-trivial, both conceptually and technically, suggesting the need for more critical evaluation of this practice. Here, we review climate change vulnerability mapping in the context of four key questions that are fundamental to assessment design. First, what are the goals of the assessment? A review of published assessments yields a range of objective statements that emphasize problem orientation or decision-making about adaptation actions. Second, how is the assessment of vulnerability framed? Assessments vary with respect to what values are assessed (vulnerability of what) and the underlying determinants of vulnerability that are considered (vulnerability to what). The selected frame ultimately influences perceptions of the primary driving forces of vulnerability as well as preferences regarding management alternatives. Third, what are the technical methods by which an assessment is conducted? The integration of vulnerability determinants into a common map remains an emergent and subjective practice associated with a number of methodological challenges. Fourth, who participates in the assessment and how will it be used to facilitate change? Assessments are often conducted under the auspices of benefiting stakeholders, yet many lack direct engagement with stakeholders. Each of these questions is reviewed in turn by drawing on an illustrative set of 45 vulnerability mapping studies appearing in the literature. A number of pathways for placing vulnerability mapping on a more robust footing are also identified.     

The relative importance of subjective and structural factors for individual adaptation to climate change by forest owners in Sweden

A growing body of literature argues that subjective factors can more accurately explain individual adaptation to climate change than objective measurers of adaptive capacity. Recent studies have shown that personal belief in climate change and affect are much better in explaining climate awareness and action than income, education or gender. This study focuses on the process of individual adaptation to climate change. It assesses and compares the influence of cognitive, experiential and structural factors on individuals’ views and intentions regarding climate change adaptation. Data from this study comes from a survey with 836 forest owners in Sweden. Ordinal and binary logistic regression was used to test hypotheses about the different factors. Results show that cognitive factors—namely personal level of trust in climate science, belief in the salience of climate change and risk assessment—are the only statistically significant factors that can directly explain individuals’ intention to adapt to climate change and their sense of urgency. Findings also suggest that structural or socio-demographic factors do not have a statistically significant influence on adaptation decision-making among Swedish forest owners. The study also offers valuable insights for communication interventions to promote adaptation. Findings strongly suggest that communication interventions should focus more strongly on building trust and addressing stakeholders’ individual needs and experiences.

     

Coastal management, climate change adaptation and sustainability in small coastal communities: leatherback turtles and beach loss

Beaches are frequently subjected to erosion and accretion that are influenced by coastal development interventions and natural variations due to storms and changes in river flow. Climate change may also exacerbate beach erosion and accretion. Natural scientists are concerned with the sustainability of species dependent on the beach ecosystem. Policymakers are pre-occupied with the economic sustainability of coastal communities should species decline and prolonged beach loss occur. The aim of this paper is to explore the linkage between science and policy by reporting the findings of a study of coastal change impacts on leatherback turtle nesting and analysing the socio-economic and adaptation implications of these changes for coastal communities. Grande Riviere, Trinidad, was used as a case study. Primary fieldwork investigated unsustainable coastal management practices. A questionnaire was administered to examine livelihoods, including ecotourism based on leatherback turtle nesting, and knowledge and awareness of climate change. One key finding of the study was that the community’s livelihoods were natural resources dependent, and that natural beach dynamics and unsustainable coastal management practices posed major threats to natural resource and economic sustainability. Another key finding was that, despite these impacts, community knowledge and awareness of climate change in general was low, and there was a perception of state responsibility for climate change adaptation. The research findings have global applicability for coastal communities at risk of exposure and that are highly vulnerable to natural resources damage arising from anthropogenic stress and potential climate change. These communities require policy reforms to strengthen current coastal management practices and adaptation responses aimed at ensuring long-term sustainability.     

Sub-basin scale characterization of climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation in an Indian River basin

Knowledge of climate change vulnerability and impacts is a prerequisite for formulating locally relevant climate change adaptation policies. A participatory approach has been used in this study to determine climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation aspects for the Kangsabati River basin, India. The study approach involved engaging with stakeholders representing state (sub-national), district and community levels, through an interactive brainstorming method, to understand stakeholder perceptions regarding (a) local characteristics which influence vulnerability, (b) climate change impacts and (c) relevant adaptation options. The study reveals that vulnerability varies across upstream, midstream and downstream sections of the river basin. Suggested adaptation options, in this predominantly agricultural basin, are found to be applicable across spatial scales. Stakeholder perceptions, regarding vulnerability and impacts, vary with the level of interaction, academic background and type of experience. Interaction confirms the notion that stakeholders have inherent knowledge regarding adaptation, reveals their preferences and ability to think unconventionally. We discuss limitations of the approach while demonstrating its ability to deliver locally relevant and acceptable adaptation options, which could facilitate implementation. We conclude that engaging stakeholders at multiple levels was highly effective in assessing locally relevant aspects of climate change vulnerability, impacts and applicable adaptation options in the Kangsabati River basin. Based on this assessment, a sub-basin scale is recommended for evaluating these aspects, especially for water resources and agricultural systems, through multi-level stakeholder input.     

Communicating climate change for adaptation in rural communities: a Pacific study

The academic literature on climate change communications is growing. However, the majority of this literature focuses on the issue of climate change mitigation in a developed country context, and there is little published material regarding communication in a developing country and adaptation context. Similarly, despite community-based approaches to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction increasing in the Pacific Islands region, there is very limited guidance on how to effectively communicate climate change in a way that enhances people’s resilience. This paper documents the experiences of organisations, including local and international non-government and faith-based organisations, governments, regional technical organisations and donor agencies in communicating climate change for adaptation in the Pacific region. Three key climate change communication challenges are highlighted and suggestions made for overcoming them based on results from interviews, a focus group discussion and an online forum. Finally, recommendations are made for good practice guidance in climate change communication that is empowering and culturally relevant.     

Prepared for climate change? A method for the ex-ante assessment of formal responsibilities for climate adaptation in specific sectors

Climate change-related risks encompass an intensification of extreme weather events, such as fluvial and pluvial flooding, droughts, storms, and heat stress. A transparent and comprehensive division of responsibilities is a necessary—but not the only—precondition for being prepared for climate change. In this paper, we present, and preliminarily test, a method for the ex-ante assessment of the division of public and private responsibilities for climate adaptation in terms of comprehensiveness, transparency, legitimacy, and effectiveness. This method proofs particularly suited for the assessment of adaptation responsibilities in combination with a sectoral approach. It helps identifying a number of shortcomings in divisions of responsibilities for climate adaptation. We conclude that this method is useful as a diagnostic tool for identifying the expected climate change preparedness level, and recommend to combine this with ex-post analyses of real-life cases of extreme events in order to assess the actual preparedness for climate change. Besides the scientific purpose of providing a generally applicable assessment method, with this method, we also intend to assist policy-makers in developing and implementing adaptation plans at various levels.     

Five reasons why it is difficult to talk to Australian farmers about the impacts of,and their adaptation to,climate change

Some recent funding programmes in Australia on climate adaptation have expected active engagement with farmers in research projects. Based on our direct experience with 30 farmers and their advisors, we list five reasons why it is difficult to gain traction with farmers in discussing the likely impacts of climate change on their farms and the possible adaptation options they should be considering in preparation for a future changed climate. The reasons concern the slow and uncertain trajectory for changes in climate relative to the time horizon for farm decision-making, when set against short-term fluctuations in weather, prices, costs and government policy. Farmers have optimism for ongoing technological progress keeping abreast of any negative impacts of climate on their production. As one moves from incremental to transformational adaptation options, biophysical research has less to offer because decisions become based more on business structure, portfolio management, off-farm investments and geographical diversification. Some farmers also doubt the intentions of climate change researchers and are wary of anything they may have to offer. We propose there is an actionable decision space where agricultural science and economics can contribute to meaningful analysis of impacts and adaptation to climate change by farmers. This will involve emphasising the principles of farm management rather than defining optimal farm plans; the use of scenario planning to explore possible futures in a turbulent environment for farming; a focus on short-term adjustments as a path to longer term adaptation; re-gaining the trust of some farmers towards climate change scientists through better communication strategies; and understanding the linkages between adaptation options and enabling factors and technologies.     

Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions,climate change and limits to warming

This paper reviews scientific and gray literature addressing climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region (ISR) in the western Canadian Arctic. The review is structured using a vulnerability framework, and 420 documents related directly or indirectly to climate change are analyzed to provide insights on the current state of knowledge on climate change vulnerability in the ISR as a basis for supporting future research and long-term adaptation planning in the region. The literature documents evidence of climate change in the ISR which is compromising food security and health status, limiting transportation access and travel routes to hunting grounds, and damaging municipal infrastructure. Adaptations are being employed to manage changing conditions; however, many of the adaptations being undertaken are short term, ad-hoc, and reactive in nature. Limited long-term strategic planning for climate change is being undertaken. Current climate change risks are expected to continue in the future with further implications for communities but less is known about the adaptive capacity of communities. This review identifies the importance of targeted vulnerability research that works closely with community members and decision makers to understand the interactions between current and projected climate change and the factors which condition vulnerability and influence adaptation. Research gaps are identified, and recommendations for advancing adaptation planning are outlined.     

大城市应对气候变化的可持续发展研究——以上海为例

在全球气候变化背景下,社会城镇规划与自然气候变化之间的关系越发密切,城镇规划体系需要纳入气候变化的影响并考虑适应气候变化的策略。首先以发达国家及世界著名大城市为参考,对美国、德国和日本在应对气候变化的城镇可持续发展规划方面的成功经验和实践措施分别进行了综述和提炼;然后,以上海为例,对照分析了我国大城市在城镇化过程中面临的气候变化挑战及存在的脆弱性,包括城镇发展规划与气候环境的相容性考虑不够、城镇化过程对气候环境的影响缺乏充分论证、城镇基础设施抵御气象灾害的能力较低、气候变化对城镇人体健康的影响未给予高度关注等;最后,指出了我国大城市应对气候变化的城镇可持续发展思路及重点方向,即充分考虑区域气候容量、大力构建生态绿色通风廊道;深入开展城镇功能布局的气候可行性论证和气象灾害风险评估;加强城市气候变化研究和实验,不断更新城市规划设计参数和标准规范;加大对脆弱人群和外来常住人口生命安全和人体健康监测预警;积极完善城镇化适应气候变化的机制等,以期为城镇发展体系的编制和应用提供参考和借鉴。     

Knowledge and information needs of adaptation policy-makers: a European study

Across Europe, national governments have started to strategically plan adaptation to climate change. Making adaptation decisions is difficult in the light of uncertainties and the complexity of adaptation problems. Already large amounts of research results on climate impacts and adaptive measures are available, and more are produced and need to be mediated across the boundary between science and policy. Both researchers and policy-makers have started to intensify efforts to coproduce knowledge that is valuable to both communities, particularly in the context of climate change adaptation. In this paper, we present results from a study of adaptation governance and information needs, comparing eight European countries. We identify sources and means for the retrieval of information as well as gaps and problems with the knowledge provided by scientists and analyzed whether these appear to be contingent on the point in the policy-making cycle where countries are. We find that in this early phase of adaptation planning, the quality of the definition of needs, the way uncertainty is dealt with, and the quality of science–policy interaction are indeed contingent on the stage of adaptation planning, while information needs and sources are not. We conclude that a well-developed science–policy interface is of key importance for effective decision-making for adaptation.     

Exposure,sensitivity, and social adaptive capacity related to climate change: empirical research in China

The present research established a preliminary indicator assessment system satisfying Chinese characters for exposure, sensitivity, and social adaptive capacity related to climate change. The 31 province-level administrative regions in mainland China were considered in our research. We developed three dimensions of indices related to climate change, including primary, secondary, and tertiary indicators. We chose all variables and indicators based on a literature review and used principal component analysis and the varimax method to develop a weighted assessment index system. Districts in central China scored higher on the overall exposure index than other sample districts, western China generally exhibited higher sensitivity, and eastern China exhibited comparatively higher social adaptive capacity than the other regions. This study also provides perspective for adaptation policies that all regions in China could adopt to determine development direction decision-making based on their specific conditions and diversified comparative advantages to enhance adaptive capacity in response to climate change.     

Global progress in climate change adaptation policies and its implication for China

This paper reviews the progress in climate change adaptation (CCA) policies both under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and in major regions and countries, including the EU and its major member countries, the influential developed countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the emerging economies and the least developed countries (LDCs). The progress made in China in CCA policies is also reviewed and compared with that in other countries. Finally, good international practices are proposed for China’s policy development. It is found that adaptation has been given the same priority as mitigation since the twenty-first century with regard to climate change-related actions. The topics related to adaptation in the international climate change negotiations under the UNFCCC have evolved from mechanisms for finance and technology development and transfer exclusively in the early stages to implementation of practical adaptation programs and actions. Since 2006, major developed and developing countries have frequently set forward specific CCA policies or general climate change policies involving adaptation in the form of laws, frameworks, strategies, and plans. The LDCs have also been working on National Adaptation Programmes of Action and subsequent National Adaptation Plans with the support from the financial mechanisms under the UNFCCC. Therefore, globally, it has become a common practice to develop national or regional policies to plan and guide CCA actions. China has established climate change policies involving adaptation at the national, regional, and sectorial levels since 2007. However, these policies have strong limitations in their knowledge base, strategic positioning, contents, and implementation mechanisms, e.g. lack of a sound knowledge base, an international perspective, clear responsibilities for policy implementation, and appropriate monitoring and evaluation mechanisms. It is recommended that China should further strengthen its technical capabilities in climate change projections as well as impact, vulnerability, and risk assessment, and develop methodologies and techniques for the preparation, impact assessment and implementation of CCA policies. Furthermore, future CCA strategies or plans should be developed with an emphasis on China’s vision and strategic position on the world stage.     

Climate proofing the Zuidplaspolder: a guiding model approach to climate adaptation

Climate change will have an impact on various sectors, such as housing, infrastructure, recreation and agriculture. Climate change may change spatial demands. For example, rising temperatures will increase the need for recreation areas, and areas could be assigned for water storage. There is a growing sense that, especially at the local scale, spatial planning has a key role in addressing the causes and impacts of climate change. This paper promotes an approach to help translate information on climate change impacts into a guiding model for adaptive spatial planning. We describe how guiding models can be used in designing integrated adaptation strategies. The concept of guiding models has been developed in the 1990s by Tjallingii to translate the principles of integrated water management in urban planning. We have integrated information about the present and future climate change and set up a climate adaptation guiding model approach. Making use of climate adaptation guiding models, spatial planners should be able to better cope with complexities of climate change impacts and be able to translate these to implications for spatial planning. The climate adaptation guiding model approach was first applied in the Zuidplaspolder case study, one of the first major attempts in the Netherlands to develop and implement an integrated adaptation strategy. This paper demonstrates how the construction of climate adaptation guiding models requires a participatory approach and how the use of climate adaptation guiding models can contribute to the information needs of spatial planners at the local scale, leading to an increasing sense of urgency and integrated adaptation planning process.     

Entry points for climate-informed planning for the water resources and agriculture sectors in Cambodia

Incorporating climate change concerns into national development planning allows adaptation to happen in harmony with the sustainable development of a country. Cambodia has received international support to enable climate change-resilient development; “mainstreaming climate change” is one of the key recent strategies. This article aims to identify entry points for integrating climate change concerns into national development planning, especially for the water resources and agriculture sectors. The study uses institutional ethnography research methods with informants drawn from government organisations, local academic institutions, and development partners, together with content analysis of key policy documents. It was found that the Cambodian national planning process restricts the involvement of other actors such as researchers, civil society, and private sector; yet flexible, in that it provides opportunities for the inclusion of climate change and other related concerns. The study identified specific entry points in key policy documents, such as the National Strategic Development Plans, and ministries’ plans. Other entry points were identified in the development planning process, for example, in the process of development departments and ministries’ plans, and actors such as department planners, and departments of planning of line ministries. Climate-informed planning is now plausible; more significant integration of concerns with future climate change, however, will require more commitment and stronger connections among national planning stakeholders, adaptation actors, and research communities.     

Adapting to climate change: an integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$ 2.3 to US $7.4 billion during 2003?C2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ??no-regret?? adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.     

Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics

Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies.     

Local-level climate change adaptation decision-making and livelihoods in semi-arid areas in Zimbabwe

There is now overwhelming evidence of climate change and variability impacts in Africa, among them a reduction in agricultural production. This is a cause for concern given that 70 % of the continent’s population derives its livelihoods directly from rain-fed agriculture. There is need for adaptation strategies at all levels from the national to the local level to mitigate these adverse impacts from climate change. It is important to take advantage of and strengthen already existing household and community strategies. This study used both qualitative and quantitative methodologies to explore the role that livelihood dynamics play in local-level decision-making for adaptation to everyday vulnerability. Risk is considered to extend beyond climate to non-climatic stressors, and the notion of climate change as the major shock among many others is downgraded to one that is secondary to other shocks that even pose more danger to household and community livelihoods. The natural capital remains the basis upon which all the other capitals depend as drivers of choice for adaptation practices. A reorientation of capitals and associated activities is inevitable to deal with everyday vulnerability given that livelihood capitals play a key role in adaptation. Choice of household response strategies to shocks is not entirely intrinsic, but rather integral to a context where other players such as the extension operate to influence adaptation choices. This then highlights the need for embeddedness and context in understanding adaptation and livelihood changes.     

Climate-adapted conservation: how to identify robust strategies for the management of reindeer in Hardangervidda National Park (Norway)

This paper presents an assessment scheme that should help local conservation management in their adaptation to potential effects of climate change. It can be used for the identification of robust adaptation options at site level. The assessment scheme was applied to the management of Europe’s largest population of wild mountain reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) living in the arctic-alpine plateau of Hardangervidda in south-western Norway. At first, the last four decades (1964–2004) were analysed to identify climate- and non-climate-related driving forces affecting the population. In addition, regional projections of climate change were used to build scenarios for the potential effects on these driving forces until 2050. In the second step, the potential effects of climate change were classified according to the risk they pose to the conservation of reindeer in Hardangervidda. Based on this assessment, no-regret strategies for biodiversity management under changing climate conditions could be identified.