Post‐crisis analysis of an ineffective tsunami alert: the 2010 earthquake in Maule,Chile

Considering its huge magnitude and its location in a densely populated area of Chile, the Maule seism of 27 February 2010 generated a low amount of victims. However, post‐seismic tsunamis were particularly devastating on that day; surprisingly, no full alert was launched, not at the national, regional or local level. This earthquake and associated tsunamis are of interest in the context of natural hazards management as well as crisis management planning. Instead of focusing exclusively on the event itself, this article places emphasis on the process, systems and long‐term approach that led the tsunami alert mechanism to be ineffectual. Notably, this perspective reveals interrelated forerunner signs of vulnerability.     

The importance of mangrove forest in tsunami disaster mitigation

Tsunamis and storm surges have killed more than one million people and some three billion people currently live with a high risk of these disasters, which are becoming more frequent and devastating worldwide. Effective mitigation of such disasters is possible via healthy coastal forests, which can reduce the energy of tsunamis. In recent years, these natural barriers have declined due to adverse human and natural activities. In the past 20 years, the world has lost almost 50 per cent of its mangrove forests, making them one of the most endangered landscapes. It is essential to recover them and to use them as a shield against a tsunami and as a resource to secure optimal socio-economic, ecological and environmental benefits. This paper examines the emerging scenario facing mangrove forests, discusses protection from tsunamis, and proposes a way to improve the current situation. We hope that practical tips will help communities and agencies to work collectively to achieve a common goal.     

Community resilience and urban planning in tsunami-prone settlements in Chile

Urban planning can serve to minimise the effects of a tsunami and enhance community resilience. This study explores to what extent urban planning has addressed tsunami resilience in four villages on Chile's South Pacific coast, each of which was struck by tsunamis in 1960, 2010, and 2015. Through a detailed policy review and semi-structured interviews with residents, this paper analyses whether tsunami mitigation policies were incorporated into regional and local planning tools. It finds that although the government proposed relocation to tsunami-safe areas after the tsunami of 1960, urban development continued mainly in tsunami inundation zones—in the context of weak local planning frameworks and in the absence of community participation. In only one of the four case studies did participatory planning bring about the relocation of an entire village to a safe location. This paper concludes that incorporating participatory risk zone planning into urban planning enhances tsunami resilience.     

Household evacuation characteristics in American Samoa during the 2009 Samoa Islands tsunami

Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 M_w 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis.     

苏沪浙海岸的地震海啸增水

江苏、上海和浙江地区的地震海啸增水研究自20世纪80年代开始,研究结果为沿海重大工程建设提供了地震海啸设防的基本数据。地震海啸历史文献记录表明,可能在该地区产生显著增水的海啸主要发生在南黄海海域和台湾附近海域。在琉球隆褶区发生的地震海啸受到冲绳海槽、钓鱼岛隆褶带的阻滞,在向东海陆架浅水区传播过程中进一步衰减,由此产生的海啸增水只有在现代仪器记录上才能分辨出来,通常不会在该地区产生灾害。在识别该研究区的潜在海啸源工作的基础上,用数值方法分析研究了海啸波传播过程,结果认为该地区受到的地震海啸影响不大于风暴潮,这一结论与历史记录相符。     

The international humanitarian system and the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunamis

The December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunamis were an exceptional event. So too was the scale of the response, particularly the level of international funding. Unprecedented donations meant that for once, an international emergency response was largely free of financial constraints. This removal of the funding constraint facilitated observation of the capacity and quality of international disaster aid. The Tsunami Evaluation Coalition conducted five independent thematic assessments in 2005-an impact study was planned, but never implemented. The five evaluations were supported by 44 sub-studies. Based on this work, this paper compares international disaster response objectives, principles and standards with actual performance. It reaches conclusions on four salient aspects: funding; capacity and quality; recovery; and ownership. It ends by proposing a fundamental reorientation of international disaster response approaches that would root them in concepts of sustainable disaster risk reduction and recovery, based on local and national ownership of these processes.     

中国的地震海啸及其预警服务

本文概述中国历史上地震海啸的发生情况,讨论了中国受远洋地震海啸影响的可能性,重点介绍了1992年初发生在海南岛近海的,首次由仪器记录到的极为鲜见的一次地震海啸,最后叙述了目前中国地震海啸预警的作业力式。     

海啸波近岸共振响应的数值模拟及分析

应用有限差分方法求解非线性浅水长波方程,建立了海啸波产生和传播的二维数值模型;对太平洋地震引起的夏威夷群岛海啸波进行模拟,并将模拟结果和测站实测值进行比较,验证了模型的正确性。利用快速傅里叶变换对数值模拟结果进行谱分析,得到整个计算区域的能量谱分布,并给出了发生能量聚集的位置及相应的谱峰周期。讨论了海啸波传播到近岸时可能产生的共振响应现象,发现海啸波和近岸的共振响应不仅与近岸复杂地形有关,还与海啸波传播到近岸时的波浪入射方向有关。     

Protecting Tourists from Death and Injury in Coastal Storms

Hurricanes, typhoons, tsunamis and other storms force thousands to flee coastal regions every year. In many cases, resort areas have been severely damaged and tourists placed in jeopardy. This article examines ways tourist businesses can and already have protected holiday-makers from coastal storm hazards through emergency evacuation and other measures. Using data from a sample of large and small hotels in New Orleans, Louisiana, we find considerable variation in protective behaviour. To explain this variation, we look at how perceptions and preparedness differ by both managerial and organisational characteristics. We then suggest a variety of measures that can be taken by hotels in coastal resort areas to reduce risk.     

Does need matter? Needs assessments and decision‐making among major humanitarian health agencies

Disasters of physical origin, including earthquakes, floods, landslides, tidal waves, tropical storms, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions, have affected millions of people globally over the past 100 years. Proportionately, there is far greater likelihood of being affected by such disasters in low‐income countries than in high‐income countries. Furthermore, low‐income countries are in need of international assistance following disasters more often than high‐income countries. The funding of international humanitarian assistance has increased from USD 12.9 billion in 2006 to an estimated USD 16.7 billion in 2010. The majority of this funding is channelled through humanitarian agencies and is supposed to be distributed based on the need of those affected, as assessed using needs assessments. Such needs assessments may be used to inform decisions internally, to influence others, to justify response decisions, and to obtain funding. Little is known about the quality of needs assessments in practical applications. Consequently, this paper reports on and analyses the views of operational decision‐makers in major health‐related humanitarian agencies on needs assessments.     

Minimization of socioeconomic disruption for displaced populations following disasters

In the aftermath of catastrophic natural disasters such as hurricanes, tsunamis and earthquakes, emergency management agencies come under intense pressure to provide temporary housing to address the large‐scale displacement of the vulnerable population. Temporary housing is essential to enable displaced families to reestablish their normal daily activities until permanent housing solutions can be provided. Temporary housing decisions, however, have often been criticized for their failure to fulfil the socioeconomic needs of the displaced families within acceptable budgets. This paper presents the development of (1) socioeconomic disruption metrics that are capable of quantifying the socioeconomic impacts of temporary housing decisions on displaced populations; and (2) a robust multi‐objective optimization model for temporary housing that is capable of simultaneously minimizing socioeconomic disruptions and public expenditures in an effective and efficient manner. A large‐scale application example is optimized to illustrate the use of the model and demonstrate its capabilities ingenerating optimal plans for realistic temporary housing problems.     

The Health Effects of Earthquakes in the Mid-1990s

This paper gives an overview of the global pattern of casualties in earthquakes which occurred during the 30-month period from 1 September 1993 to 29 February 1996. It also describes some of the behavioural and logistical regularities associated with mortality and morbidity in these events. Of 83 earthquakes studied, there were casualties in 49. Lethal earthquakes occurred in rapid succession in Indonesia, China, Colombia and Iran. In the events studied, a disproportionate number of deaths and injuries occurred during the first six hours of the day and in earthquakes with magnitudes between 6.5 and 7.4. Ratios of death to injury varied markedly (though with some averages close to 1:3), as did the nature and causes of mortality and morbidity and the proportion of serious to slight injuries. As expected on the basis of previous knowledge, few problems were caused by post-earthquake illness and disease. Also, as expected, building collapse was the principal source of casualties: tsunamis, landslides, debris flows and bridge collapses were the main secondary causes. In addition, new findings are presented on the temporal sequence of casualty estimates after seismic disaster. In synthesis, though mortality in earthquakes may have been low in relation to long-term averages, the interval of time studied was probably typical of other periods in which seismic catastrophes were relatively limited in scope.     

Long‐term effects of Hurricane Katrina on the psychological well‐being of evacuees

Hurricane Katrina of August 2005 forced more than one million people to evacuate the Gulf Coast of the United States. This study examines the psychological health and well‐being of a subset of evacuees to determine the prevalence of ongoing mental health problems. Interviews were conducted with 101 adults who evacuated to Louisville, Kentucky, and were living in the state at the one‐year anniversary of the event or had recently returned to the Gulf Coast. The psychological health and well‐being of respondents was evaluated using several well‐validated measures. More than one‐half met the criteria for post‐traumatic stress disorder and a majority were suffering from depression and anxiety. The mean quality of life score was 0.6 on a scale from 0–1, suggesting that adaptation and return to pre‐hurricane well‐being had not occurred 12 months after the storm. The potential for long‐term psychological damage exists in this sample of Hurricane Katrina evacuees. Results suggest other evacuees may also be at heightened risk.     

渤海地区近期地震活动特征及其趋势分析

渤海及其邻区是我国东部地震较活跃的地区之一,历史上曾发生过多次强震,现今小震活动也较活跃,并曾显示出某些异常。本文对渤海地区近期地震时、空分布特征,强度分带特征及地震活动趋势进行了分析研究。     

年度地震重点监视防御区地震保险净费率的计算

根据我国年度地震重点监视区13年的预报结果和实际发生地震的结果,研究了这些地区地震保险净费率的计算方法。作为例子,给出了Ⅱ类地区基本烈度为Ⅵ度地区多层混凝土楼板砖结构Ⅶ度设防的建筑物的地震保险净损失率的计算结果。结果表明,我国年度地震重点监视区的地震保险净费率明显高于同类研究中不考虑其特殊地震危险性的结果。这一结果表明,中国的年度地震重点监视区是地震保险研究中应当给予特别关注的地区。     

陇海铁路宝鸡—天水段路基的气象灾害及路基气象综合效应研究

本文对陇海铁路宝天段路基的地质地理及气象因素进行了综合分析。认为气象因素是路基灾害的主要原因，是触发机制，尤其是路基选址不当所产生的路基气象综合效应更加重了灾害程度．文章认为，设计铁路时，不但要注意气象条件的研究，同时要模拟研究路基与气象条件相互作用所产生的气象效应．     

某湖滨路拓宽改造工程的稳定性分析及处理方案研究

针对某湖滨路的拓宽改造工程,选取地基土层最不利的断面进行数值模拟,并采用强度折减法研究其整体稳定性。数值分析结果表明,加宽后的新路基稳定性较差,安全储备不能满足要求,需要采取加固措施。对初步设计提出的仅采用土工格栅和采用土工格栅+水泥搅拌桩这两种不同加固处理方案进行了数值分析。计算结果表明,相比仅采用土工格栅,采用土工格栅+水泥搅拌桩进行软基处理可以有效地减小不均匀沉降、提高路堤的整体稳定性。本文的实例研究可供类似工程参考和借鉴。     

填埋场底土污染物浓度实测值和理论解的比较

为了研究现场条件下污染物在粘性土中的运移机理,对运行13年的苏州七子山填埋场进行了钻孔取样.通过对土样进行分层切片、加去离子水混合并结合室内小型离心机分离,得到了填埋场底土中Cl-,Na+及COD的孔隙水浓度.将室内试验测试值和一维扩散理论进行了比较,结果表明,实测浓度剖面与扩散曲线差别较大,可见水力梯度引起的对流和机械弥散作用比分子扩散作用来得重要.将实测值与一维对流弥散解析解的计算值亦进行了比较,结果表明试验数据较为发散,但可以采用一维对流弥散理论进行大致的拟合,从而可得到运移参数的取值范围.进一步的理论预测表明,当填埋场运行30年之后,Cl-的影响深度可达到10 m以上.为了防止和延缓渗滤液污染物的进一步运移,填埋场应采取有效措施阻止渗滤液的扩散.     

一种计算地下结构地震主动土压力的新方法

针对目前地下结构地震土压力设计方法的研究现状,介绍了计算挡土墙地震主动土压力的物部·冈部公式及浅埋隧道谢家然围岩压力理论。并结合物部·冈部公式、谢家然理论提出了一种适用于计算地下结构地震土压力的新方法。该方法基于极限平衡理论,根据谢家然理论提供的滑裂面参数构造了滑动土体,采用物部·冈部公式计算了滑动土体作用在地下结构边墙上的地震土压力。最后结合工程实例,将本文方法与其它计算方法进行了比较,评价了该计算方法的优缺点。     

Humanitarian aid and local responses: the aftermath of the rebuilding effort on Tongoa island,Vanuatu

Cyclone Pam swept through the archipelago of Vanuatu on 13–14 March 2015, with wind speeds exceeding those recorded anywhere in the South Pacific since the 1980s. Southern and central parts of the country were particularly affected. Material damage on Tongoa, one of the most afflicted islands, was extensive, but no deaths were reported. During the storm, villagers found shelter in their kitchen, in what is considered locally as a ‘lifeboat’. The aftermath was managed and mitigated by international aid organisations. On Tongoa, this included a ‘Shelter Cluster’ programme, under which villagers were given house rebuilding kits. Elaborating upon extensive ethnographic investigations on site between 2011 and 2018, this paper explores and reveals the ways in which this aid generated confusion among the local population. In a larger context of regular disasters triggered by natural hazards, locals have found endogenous ways of dealing with such extreme climatic events, for the most part without any external assistance.