一种城市生活垃圾产量预测的改进方法

将灰色系统理论与多元线性回归分析方法相结合，是研究城市生活垃圾产量预测的一种改进方法。以成都市为例。运用灰色关联度分析确定影响城市生活垃圾产量的4个主要因子：城市非农业人口、气化率、城市人均消费性支出、清扫面积。利用GM(1，1)模型预测上述4个因子的变化情况。建立一个包含这些因子的垃圾产量的多元线性回归分析预测模型，并对2004～2010年的垃圾产量进行预测。该模型预测精度高，实用性强，可为垃圾产量预测提供一种可靠的方法。     

灰色理论及改良方法对我国垃圾产量的预测

为了给城市环境规划提供理论依据,需要对城市生活垃圾产量进行预测,以期揭示其变化规律和发展趋势。本文对三种预测模型进行对比分析研究,并通过灰色关联度分析,选取与垃圾产量最为相关的5个因素,建立了包括多个因素指标的GM(1,1)预测方程的多元线性回归综合模型。该模型考虑了城市生活垃圾产量的主要影响因素,得到的拟合数据比较理想,预测模型和结果也更为合理可信。     

畜禽养殖污染何时休？

近年来,畜禽养殖产业带来的污染成为我国农村污染的主要来源。据原国家环保总局调查显示,仅1999年,我国畜禽粪便产生量就达19亿吨,是工业固体废物的2．4倍,畜禽粪便的总体土地负荷警戒值已达0．49（正常值应小于0．4）。专家预计,到2010年,我国每年畜禽粪便产生量将达到45亿吨,如果不进行有效的处理,将进一步导致环境恶化,进而威胁农产品安全。治理畜禽养殖污染已刻不容缓。     

浅析珠三角工业结构与环境污染物的灰色关联

根据2004—2009年珠三角地区各种工业结构、总产值以及工业“三废”排放量等数据,运用灰色关联分析研究了珠三角工业生产规模结构、轻重工业结构、行业结构、工业生产结构与不同环境污染物之间的关联程度。结果表明：珠三角3种生产规模的企业中与工业“三废”关联最大的是中型企业,其次是大型企业,小型企业最小;相对重工业,珠三角轻工业与工业“三废”的关联较大;珠三角工业主导行业与工业“三废”的关联度排序：采矿业〉制造业〉电力燃气及水的生产和供应;就产业结构来说,与污染物的灰色关联度依次是：第一产业、第二产业、第三产业。     

城市总体规划环评指标体系的建立及其应用

本研究首先介绍了DPSIR模型构建的原理,接着以合肥市为对象,从驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应5个方面来构建的共36个指标,并采用层次分析法对指标权重的确定和多级灰色关联分析对指标进行综合评价,得出评价结果。合肥市在2004~2005年处于较低可持续发展水平(0.3398、0.3876)、在2010年处于中等可持续发展水平(0.5369)、在2015年处于较高可持续发展水平(0.6016)、在2020年处于较高可持续发展水平(0.7847),该预测评价结果与合肥市城市可持续发展趋势相符。最后采用改进熵值法验证多级灰色关联综合分析结论,计算得出的结果表明,该两种方法评价结论基本相同。因此,本研究对城市总体规划环境影响评价的评价方法的建立与完善,有着较强的实践意义和参考价值。     

组合优化的能源消费量预测模型

针对非等间距灰色系统预测中存在误差较大的问题,结合序列本身的特点,利用世界能源消费的历史数据,采用3种灰色预测模型与神经网络进行组合优化,建立了灰色神经网络的能源消费量组合预测模型.实证分析结果表明,提高了模型的拟合和预测精度,拓宽了应用范围.模型中对能源的消费趋势进行预测,为科学地分析能源结构提供了依据.     

基于Matlab的灰色系统工具箱wll的构建

灰色预测对波动性较强的序列预测效果较差,但能给出发展趋势.为了科技工作者方便地进行灰色系统的应用研究,采用层次化思想编制了基于Matlab的灰色系统工具箱wll,包含算子集合、矩阵分析、聚类分析、灰色微分方程、灰色预测模型等板块,实际使用非常方便.     

组合优化的能源消费量预测模型

针对非等间距灰色系统预测中存在误差较大的问题，结合序列本身的特点，利用世界能源消费的历史数据，采用3种灰色预测模型与神经网络进行组合优化，建立了灰色神经网络的能源消费量组合预测模型。实证分析结果表明，提高了模型的拟合和预测精度，拓宽了应用范围。该模型可对能源的消费趋势进行预测，为科学分析能源结构提供依据。     

环境风险预测数学模型

本文基于环境风险预测分析的基本思想,应用模糊图、灰色系统、非线性回归、随机过程和可靠性系统工程理论和方法,探讨了环境风险预测的数学模型。给出了环境风险预测的双向模糊图模型、灰色马尔夫预测模型及非线性回归模型,这些模型的应用为环境风险评价和环境风险管理提供了科学依据。     

乌鲁木齐2000年大气污染预测分析

乌鲁木齐大气污染总趋势日益严重。本文根据多年的大气监测数据,采用灰色系统理论 GM(1,1)模型预测了1989—2000年乌鲁木齐市大气颗粒物,二氧化硫、氮氧化物浓度的变化趋势。结果表明灰色系统模型对城市大气污染物浓度的预测具有一定的实用价值。     

Estimation of waste from computers and mobile phones in Iran

The amount of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) has been rapidly growing in recent years. Estimation close to reality of the future amounts of WEEE as a function of time is critical to effective their management. Wastes from mobile phones and computers are one of the several subgroups of WEEE. The objective of this study was to estimate past and future trends in the generation of obsolete computers and mobile phones in Iran. For this purpose a combination of two models were used. At the beginning, time-series multiple lifespan model was used to estimate outflows end-of-life obsolete equipment. Then, using the simplified logistic function model by Excel software, the values of obsolete computers and mobile phones in the future were estimated. The study found that the amount of E-waste generation in the country was 20 million wasted computers until 2016 and 39 million wasted mobile phones until 2014. Results of the time series model analysis showed a total amount of 2.8 million waste computers would be reused by 2016 and 4.2 million mobile phones would be reused by 2014. The results of the logistic equation indicate that by the year 2040 there will be 50 million units of obsolete computers. According to the same model 90 million mobile phones will be obsolete by 2035. Increase in the number of computers and mobile phones was fitted into the logistic model and the results showed that the saturation level of generation of obsolete computers and mobile phones are 24 and 21 years respectively following the base year 2016 and 2014.     

营口市港城经济关联度研究

港口是城市经济发展的核心资源,城市为港口经济发展提供支撑.以营口市为研究对象,应用灰色关联度模型,对营口市1995-2009年以来城市相关产业与港口吞吐量进行关联度分析,其结论为:港口经济与城市工业、建筑业关联度较高,批发零售业、金融保险业关联度相对较低;在城市经济的促进下,港口临港工业正在形成,但是港口经济对城市服务业带动较小.     

上海市港城经济联动发展研究——基于建设现代化港口城市的背景

上海市要建成现代化港口城市,必须具备发达的港口经济与和谐的港城关系。从实现上海市港城经济联动发展的目的出发,将港城经济系统划分为城市经济子系统和港口经济子系统,选取具有代表性的指标,对2001—2010年间的数据进行灰色关联度分析。结果表明,保险业、信息业对港口经济的联动性较强,城市基础设施、集疏运体系和金融业对港口经济的支撑不足,且港口经济的外贸依存度不高,因此上海市需加快基础设施、金融业和现代物流业的配套建设。     

中原经济区能源消费视角下的大气环境压力评估

研究以能源消费模式为切入点,分析中原经济区能源消费总量、消费结构和利用效率的现状水平,并分析能源消费引起的大气环境压力状况。基于经济发展速度调控及节能减排力度的不同,设置2020年三种能源消费情景,使用区域能源消费总量优化模型模拟预测不同情景下的能源消费总量,并分析不同情景下的大气环境压力。结果表明,快速发展和适度发展Ⅰ情景下,2020年区域能源消费总量将比2012年增加4.2×10~8tce和2.4×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将增加3.1×10~8tce和1.2×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力增加30%和50%;适度发展Ⅱ情景下,能源消费总量将增加0.2×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将下降0.3×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力将降低20%。因此,要实现经济发展稳步增长(年均增长率7.7%)和大气污染物排放总量削减10%目标,重中之重是实现煤炭消费总量"零增长"或"负增长",同时力争能源消费总量控制在5×10~8~6×10~8tce,凭借煤炭占比大幅下降(降至65%左右)最大限度发挥能源供给领域节能效应,依靠产业结构升级节能效应和技术节能拓展能源消费领域节能空间,将能效水平提高至0.6tce/万元以下。     

RESOURCE DEMANDS FOR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on the development of a mathematical model for forecasting energy development in the Yellowstone study area for the years 1985 and 2000, and determining the associated economic demands for water, land, labor, capital, and mineral resources. The study was prepared for use by the Missouri River Basin Commission in conducting a comprehensive, “Level B” planning study of the water and related land resources in the Yellowstone River Basin. The study results indicate that the amount of coal development in the Yellowstone study area will depend primarily upon state and federal energy policies and regulations. Policies related to slurry pipeline transportation of coal will be particularly important in determining the level and pattern of future energy development in the area. Coal production under the “most probable” scenario is expected to increase from about 40 million tons in 1976 to 163 million tons per year by 1985, and 513 million tons in the year 2000. Consumptive water use for energy development in the study area could be as much as 556,000 acre-feet per year by the year 2000 (under the high scenario). A parametric analysis was conducted on the 1985 most probably scenario to determine the influence on the study results of variations in the delivered price of water. Water requirements were reduced by nearly one-fourth as water costs increased from zero to over $750 per acre-foot.     

基于灰色模型的辽宁省海洋经济关联度分析

21世纪是海洋的世纪,海洋开发、海洋可持续发展、海洋产业发展已成为国内外沿海地区经济发展的重大举措。辽宁省作为我国的海洋大省,海洋经济与海洋产业发展极具潜力。鉴于海洋经济发展与海洋产业分析的复杂性和不确定性,采用灰色模型对辽宁省海洋经济与各海洋产业之间的关联度进行比较,旨在发现目前辽宁省各海洋产业当中对本省海洋总值贡献率最为突出的产业,对辽宁省海洋经济的进一步发展具有很大的现实意义。     

四川省农业环境因素-化肥施用(1998～2007年)宏观动态变化

化肥的大量施用已成为农村面源污染的一个重要来源,直接影响到农村村镇地表饮用水安全。通过分析四川省1998~2007年化肥施用量、农作物产量和农业劳动力的动态变化特征,发现10年间化肥总用量由205.32万t上升到238.2万t,总体上升16.0%;农作物播种面积由971.44万hm2下降至935.1万hm2,总体下降3.74%;粮食总产量和单产量均呈整体震荡减少,化肥施用相对生产力在下降。综合相关因素,分析认为粮食生产、农产品结构、现代农业生产技术、农业肥料资源和农村劳动力状况,以及城市化发展都是化肥施用量动态变化的主要关联因素。化肥用量上升趋势还将持续一段时间。     

Municipal solid waste generation in Kathmandu, Nepal

Waste stream characteristics must be understood to tackle waste management problems in Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC), Nepal. Three-stage stratified cluster sampling was used to evaluate solid waste data collected from 336 households in KMC. This information was combined with data collected regarding waste from restaurants, hotels, schools and streets. The study found that 497.3 g capita(-1) day(-1) of solid waste was generated from households and 48.5, 113.3 and 26.1 kg facility(-1) day(-1) of waste was generated from restaurants, hotels and schools, respectively. Street litter measured 69.3 metric tons day(-1). The average municipal solid waste generation rate was 523.8 metric tons day(-1) or 0.66 kg capita(-1) day(-1) as compared to the 320 metric tons day(-1) reported by the city. The coefficient of correlation between the number of people and the amount of waste produced was 0.94. Key household waste constituents included 71% organic wastes, 12% plastics, 7.5% paper and paper products, 5% dirt and construction debris and 1% hazardous wastes. Although the waste composition varied depending on the source, the composition analysis of waste from restaurants, hotels, schools and streets showed a high percentage of organic wastes. These numbers suggest a greater potential for recovery of organic wastes via composting and there is an opportunity for recycling. Because there is no previous inquiry of this scale in reporting comprehensive municipal solid waste generation in Nepal, this study can be treated as a baseline for other Nepalese municipalities.     

基于灰色预测法的空气污染来源及控制对策分析

以2005年~2012年三明市公布的环境空气质量指数为基础,用2005年~2010年的环境空气质量指数数据以改进的灰色预测方法来构建模型。通过对预测值与实际值出现较大差异的地方进行比较和分析,表明大型城建项目、机动车辆爆炸性增长对三明市区的环境空气质量有较大影响。因此针对相应的污染机制和源头提出整治措施,为三明市下一步的环境治理规划的制定提供指导和依据。     

Sustainable pattern analysis of a publicly owned Material Recovery Facility in a fast-growing urban setting under uncertainty

Sustainable development goals are achievable through the installation of Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) in certain solid waste management systems, especially those in rapidly expanding multi-district urban areas. MRFs are a cost-effective alternative when curbside recycling does not demonstrate long-term success. Previous capacity planning uses mixed integer programming optimization for the urban center of the city of San Antonio, Texas to establish that a publicly owned material recovery facility is preferable to a privatized facility. As a companion study, this analysis demonstrates that a MRF alleviates economic, political, and social pressures facing solid waste management under uncertainty. It explores the impact of uncertainty in decision alternatives in an urban environmental system. From this unique angle, waste generation, incidence of recyclables in the waste stream, routing distances, recycling participation, and other planning components are taken as intervals to expand upon previous deterministic integer-programming models. The information incorporated into the optimization objectives includes economic impacts for recycling income and cost components in waste management. The constraint set consists of mass balance, capacity limitation, recycling limitation, scale economy, conditionality, and relevant screening restrictions. Due to the fragmented data set, a grey integer programming modeling approach quantifies the consequences of inexact information as it propagates through the final solutions in the optimization process. The grey algorithm screens optimal shipping patterns and an ideal MRF location and capacity. Two case settings compare MRF selection policies where optimal solutions exemplify the value of grey programming in the context of integrated solid waste management.