Developing a High-Resolution Vehicular Emission Inventory by Integrating an Emission Model and a Traffic Model: Part 2—A Case Study in Beijing

Abstract

A grid-based, bottom-up method has been proposed by combining a vehicle emission model and a travel demand model to develop a high-resolution vehicular emission inventory for Chinese cities. Beijing is used as a case study in which the focus is on fuel consumption and emissions from hot-stabilized activities of light-duty gasoline vehicles (LGVs) in 2005. The total quantity of emissions, emission intensity, and spatial distribution of emissions at 1- by 1-km resolution are presented and compared with results from other inventory methods commonly used in China. The results show that the total daily fuel consumption and vehicular emissions of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and oxides of nitrogen from LGVs in the Beijing urban area in 2005 were 1.95 × 10⁷ L, 4.28 × 10⁴ t, 1.97 × 10³ t, 0.28 × 10³ t, and 0.14 × 10³ t, respectively. Vehicular fuel consumption and emissions show spatial variations that are consistent with the traffic characteristics. The grid-based inventory developed in this study reflects the influence of traffic conditions on vehicle emissions at the microscale and may be applied to evaluate the effectiveness of traffic-related measures on emission control in China.     

Developing a high-resolution vehicular emission inventory by integrating an emission model and a traffic model: Part 1--Modeling fuel consumption and emissions based on speed and vehicle-specific power

To improve the accuracy and applicability of vehicular emission models, this study proposes a speed and vehicle-specific power (VSP) modeling method to estimate vehicular emissions and fuel consumption using data gathered by a portable emissions monitoring system (PEMS). The PEMS data were categorized into discrete speed-VSP bins on the basis of the characteristics of vehicle driving conditions and emissions in Chinese cities. Speed-VSP modal average rates of emissions (or fuel consumption) and the time spent in the corresponding speed-VSP bins were then used to calculate the total trip emissions (or fuel consumption) and emission factors (or fuel economy) under specific average link speeds. The model approach was validated by comparing it against measured data with prediction errors within 20% for trip emissions and link-speed-based emission factors. This analysis is based on the data of light-duty gasoline vehicles in China; however, this research approach could be generalized to other vehicle fleets in other countries. This modeling method could also be coupled with traffic demand models to establish high-resolution emissions inventories and evaluate the impacts of traffic-related emission control measures.     

The impact of transportation control measures on emission reductions during the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing,China

Traffic congestion and air pollution were two major challenges for the planners of the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing. The Beijing municipal government implemented a package of temporary transportation control measures during the event. In this paper, we report the results of a recent research project that investigated the effects of these measures on urban motor vehicle emissions in Beijing. Bottom–up methodology has been used to develop grid-based emission inventories with micro-scale vehicle activities and speed-dependent emission factors. The urban traffic emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM₁₀) during the 2008 Olympics were reduced by 55.5%, 56.8%, 45.7% and 51.6%, respectively, as compared to the grid-based emission inventory before the Olympics. Emission intensity was derived from curbside air quality monitoring at the North 4th Ring Road site, located about 7 km from the National Stadium. Comparison between the emission intensity before and during the 2008 Olympics shows a reduction of 44.5% and 49.0% in daily CO and NO_x emission from motor vehicles. The results suggest that reasonable traffic system improvement strategies along with vehicle technology improvements can contribute to controlling total motor vehicle emissions in Beijing after the Olympic Games.     

Comparison of vehicle activity and emission inventory between Beijing and Shanghai

Vehicle emission inventory is a critical element for air quality study. This study created systemic methods to establish a vehicle emission inventory in Chinese cities. The methods were used to obtain credible results of vehicle activity in Beijing and Shanghai. On the basis of the vehicle activity data, the International Vehicle Emission model is used to establish vehicle emission inventories. The emissions analysis indicates that 3 t of particulate matter (PM), 199 t of nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), 192 t of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and 2403 t of carbon monoxide (CO) are emitted from on-road vehicles each day in Beijing, whereas 4 t of PM, 189 t of NO(x), 113 t of VOCs, and 1009 t of CO are emitted in Shanghai. Although common features were found in these two cities (many new passenger cars and a high taxi proportion in the fleet), the emission results are dissimilar because of the different local policy regarding vehicles. The method to quantify vehicle emission on an urban scale can be applied to other Chinese cities. Also, knowing how different policies can lead to diverse emissions is beneficial knowledge for other city governments.     

Estimates of black carbon and size-resolved particle number emission factors from residential wood burning based on ambient monitoring and model simulations

In this paper we derive typical emission factors for coarse particulate matter (PM(10)), oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)), black carbon (BC), and number particle size distributions based on a combination of measurements and air quality dispersion modeling. The advantage of this approach is that the emission factors represent integrated emissions from several vehicle types and different types of wood stoves. Normally it is very difficult to estimate the total emissions in cities on the basis of laboratory measurements on single vehicles or stoves because of the large variability in conditions. The measurements were made in Temuco, Chile, between April 18 and June 15, 2005 at two sites. The first one was located in a residential area relatively far from major roads. The second site was located in a busy street in downtown Temuco where wood consumption is low. The measurements support the assumption that the monitoring sites represent the impact of different emission sources, namely traffic and residential wood combustion (RWC). Fitting model results to the available measurements, emission factors were obtained for PM(10) (RWC = 2160 +/- 100 mg/kg; traffic = 610 +/- 51 mg/veh-km), NO(x) (RWC = 800 +/- 100 mg/kg; traffic = 4400 +/- 100 mg/veh-km), BC (RWC = 74 +/- 6 mg/kg; traffic = 60 +/- 3 mg/veh-km) and particle number (N) with size distribution between 25 and 600 nm (N(25-600)) (RWC = 8.9 +/- 1 x 10(14) pt/kg; traffic = 6.7 +/- 0.5 x 10(14) pt/veh-km). The obtained emission factors are comparable to results reported in the literature. The size distribution of the N emission factors for traffic was shown to be different than for RWC. The main difference is that although traffic emissions show a bimodal size distribution with a main mode below 30 nm and a secondary one around 100 nm, RWC emissions show the main mode slightly below 100 nm and a smaller nucleation mode below 50 nm.     

Hot emission model for mobile sources: application to the metropolitan region of the city of Santiago, Chile

Depending on the final application, several methodologies for traffic emission estimation have been developed. Emission estimation based on total miles traveled or other average factors is a sufficient approach only for extended areas such as national or worldwide areas. For road emission control and strategies design, microscale analysis based on real-world emission estimations is often required. This involves actual driving behavior and emission factors of the local vehicle fleet under study. This paper reports on a microscale model for hot road emissions and its application to the metropolitan region of the city of Santiago, Chile. The methodology considers the street-by-street hot emission estimation with its temporal and spatial distribution. The input data come from experimental emission factors based on local driving patterns and traffic surveys of traffic flows for different vehicle categories. The methodology developed is able to estimate hourly hot road CO, total unburned hydrocarbons (THCs), particulate matter (PM), and NO(x) emissions for predefined day types and vehicle categories.     

Trends in vehicular emissions in China's mega cities from 1995 to 2005

Multiyear inventories of vehicular emissions in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou from 1995 through 2005 have been developed in this paper to study the vehicle emissions trends in China's mega cities during the past decade. The results show that the vehicular emissions of CO, HC, NO_x and PM₁₀ have begun to slow their growth rates and perhaps even to decline in recent years due to the implementation of measures to control vehicular emissions in these cities. However, vehicular CO₂ emissions have substantially increased and still continue to grow due to little fuel economy improvement. Passenger cars and large vehicles (including heavy duty trucks and buses) are the major sources of vehicular CO₂ and CO emissions while large vehicles were responsible for nearly 70% and 80% of the vehicular NO_x and PM₁₀ emissions in these mega cities. Motorcycles are also important contributors to vehicular emissions in Guangzhou and Shanghai.     

Estimation of vehicular emission inventories in China from 1980 to 2005

Multi-year inventories of vehicular emissions at a high spatial resolution of 40 km×40 km were established in China using the GIS methodology for the period 1980–2005, based on provincial statistical data from yearbooks regarding vehicles and roads, and on the emission factors for each vehicle category in each province calculated by COPERT III program. Results showed that the emissions of CH₄, CO, CO₂, NMVOC, NO_x, PM₁₀, and SO₂ increased from 5, 1066, 19 893, 169, 174, 26, and 16 thousand tons in 1980 to 377, 36 197, 674 629, 5911, 4539, 983, and 484 thousand tons in 2005 at an annual average rate of 19%, 15%, 15%, 15%, 14%, 16%, and 15%, respectively. Statistical analysis of vehicular emissions and GDP showed that they were well positively correlated, which revealed that increase of pollutant emissions has been accompanying the growth of GDP. Spatial distribution of pollutant emissions was rather unbalanced: over three-quarters of the total emissions concentrated in developed regions of China's southeastern, northern and central areas covering only 35.2% of China's territory, while the remaining emissions were distributed over the southwestern, northwestern and northeastern regions covering as much as 64.8% of the territory. In 2005, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta covering only 2.3%, 2.2%, and 1.9%, respectively, of the territory, generated about 10%, 19%, and 12%, respectively, of the total emissions. Since 1990, motorcycles have been the major contributors to the CH₄, CO, NMVOC, and PM₁₀ emissions, due to the large population. Heavy-duty vans were the major contributors to the NO_x and SO₂ emissions because of high emission factors. Passenger cars contributed about one third of the emissions of each pollutant. Contributions of vehicle categories to emissions varied from province to province, due to the diversity of vehicle compositions among provinces.     

Longitudinal emissions evaluation of mixed (cooperative) adaptive cruise control traffic flow and its relationship with stability

ABSTRACT

Cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) vehicles need vehicle-to-vehicle (V2 V) communication to achieve CACC function. When a CACC vehicle follows a manual-driven vehicle (MDV) without V2 V communication, it needs degenerate to adaptive cruise control (ACC). By using real experiments, California PATH program indicated that ACC vehicles are apt to be unstable, which may have negative influence on fuel consumption and traffic emissions. Hence, this paper studies the impacts of the mixed CACC-MDV traffic on fuel consumption and emissions, by taking into consideration partial degenerations from stable CACC vehicles to unstable ACC vehicles. To deal with this, microscopic simulations were adopted by using car-following models. Then, an appropriate emission model was used for evaluating the emission impacts under different CACC market penetration rates (MPRs). In order to obtain reliable evaluation results, the models validated by PATH program using real experimental data were employed as the CACC and ACC car-following models. In addition, we also analytically investigated stability of the mixed traffic flow under different CACC MPRs, in order to explore its relationship with the emission impacts. The results show that the fuel consumption and emissions firstly increase and then decrease with the increase of the CACC MPR. This means the mixed traffic under some ranges of CACC MPRs will produce more fuel consumption and emissions, compared with the full MDVs traffic. It indicates that stability situations of the mixed traffic qualitatively influence the impact trend of CACC MPRs on fuel consumption and emissions. Then, V2 V communication equipments on MDVs are not only encouraging but also essential to avoid the deterioration of fuel consumption and emissions of the mixed traffic flow.     

Development of a composite line source emission model for traffic interrupted microenvironments and its application in particle number emissions at a bus station

A composite line source emission (CLSE) model was developed to specifically quantify exposure levels and describe the spatial variability of vehicle emissions in traffic interrupted microenvironments. This model took into account the complexity of vehicle movements in the queue, as well as different emission rates relevant to various driving conditions (cruise, decelerate, idle and accelerate), and it utilised multi-representative segments to capture the accurate emission distribution for real vehicle flow. Hence, this model was able to quickly quantify the time spent in each segment within the considered zone, as well as the composition and position of the requisite segments based on the vehicle fleet information, which not only helped to quantify the enhanced emissions at critical locations, but it also helped to define the emission source distribution of the disrupted steady flow for further dispersion modelling. The model then was applied to estimate particle number emissions at a bi-directional bus station used by diesel and compressed natural gas fuelled buses. It was found that the acceleration distance was of critical importance when estimating particle number emission, since the highest emissions occurred in sections where most of the buses were accelerating and no significant increases were observed at locations where they idled. It was also shown that emissions at the front end of the platform were 43 times greater than at the rear of the platform. Although the CLSE model is intended to be applied in traffic management and transport analysis systems for the evaluation of exposure, as well as the simulation of vehicle emissions in traffic interrupted microenvironments, the bus station model can also be used for the input of initial source definitions in future dispersion models.     

Investigating the real-world emission characteristics of light-duty gasoline vehicles and their relationship to local socioeconomic conditions in three communities in Los Angeles,California

This paper discusses results from a vehicular emissions research study of over 350 vehicles conducted in three communities in Los Angeles, CA, in 2010 using vehicle chase measurements. The study explores the real-world emission behavior of light-duty gasoline vehicles, characterizes real-world super-emitters in the different regions, and investigates the relationship of on-road vehicle emissions with the socioeconomic status (SES) of the region. The study found that in comparison to a 2007 earlier study in a neighboring community, vehicle emissions for all measured pollutants had experienced a significant reduction over the years, with oxides of nitrogen (NO_X) and black carbon (BC) emissions showing the largest reductions. Mean emission factors of the sampled vehicles in low-SES communities were roughly 2–3 times higher for NO_X, BC, carbon monoxide, and ultrafine particles, and 4–11 times greater for fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) than for vehicles in the high-SES neighborhood. Further analysis indicated that the emission factors of vehicles within a technology group were also higher in low-SES communities compared to similar vehicles in the high-SES community, suggesting that vehicle age alone did not explain the higher vehicular emission in low-SES communities.

Evaluation of the emission factor distribution found that emissions from 12% of the sampled vehicles were greater than five times the mean from all of the sampled fleet, and these vehicles were consequently categorized as “real-world super-emitters.” Low-SES communities had approximately twice as many super-emitters for most of the pollutants as compared to the high-SES community. Vehicle emissions calculated using model-year-specific average fuel consumption assumptions suggested that approximately 5% of the sampled vehicles accounted for nearly half of the total CO, PM_2.5, and UFP emissions, and 15% of the vehicles were responsible for more than half of the total NO_X and BC emissions from the vehicles sampled during the study.

Implications: This study evaluated the real-world emission behavior and super-emitter distribution of light-duty gasoline vehicles in California, and investigated the relationship of on-road vehicle emissions with local socioeconomic conditions. The study observed a significant reduction in vehicle emissions for all measured pollutants when compared to an earlier study in Wilmington, CA, and found a higher prevalence of high-emitting vehicles in low-socioeconomic-status communities. As overall fleet emissions decrease from stringent vehicle emission regulations, a small fraction of the fleet may contribute to a disproportionate share of the overall on-road vehicle emissions. Therefore, this work will have important implications for improving air quality and public health, especially in low-SES communities.     

Assessment of heavy metal releases from the use phase of road transport in Europe

An emission inventory was compiled for heavy metal air emissions from road transport in Europe (EU-40). For the database, country-specific data was taken such as the diesel and gasoline fuel consumption per country, the content of Pb in gasoline and diesel fuel and the share of different vehicle types. For tyre and brake wear emissions, average wear rates and heavy metal contents of different materials were used to develop emission factors for tyre and brake wear. It covers exhaust emissions (Pb from gasoline and diesel) as well as non-exhaust emissions (As, Cd, Cr, Ni and Pb from the wear of brake linings and vehicle tyres). The base year is 2000, and two scenarios were developed for 2010, a business as usual (BAU) scenario and a maximum feasible technical reduction (MFTR) scenario. Both result in a remarkable decrease in Pb exhaust emissions and a rising share of non-exhaust emissions. To assess the results, the inventory is (a) compared to an inventory compiled with a top-down approach that covers the same area and years but only emissions from combustion processes and (b) added to an inventory covering all sectors for heavy metal air emissions.     

On-road emission characteristics of heavy-duty diesel vehicles in Shanghai

On-road vehicle tests of nine heavy-duty diesel trucks were conducted using SEMTECH-D, an emissions measuring instrument provided by Sensors, Inc. The total length of roads for the tests was 186 km. Data were obtained for 37,255 effective driving cycles, including 17,216 on arterial roads, 15,444 on residential roads, and 4595 on highways. The impacts of speed and acceleration on fuel consumption and emissions were analyzed. Results show that trucks spend an average of 16.5% of the time in idling mode, 25.5% in acceleration mode, 27.9% in deceleration mode, and only 30.0% at cruise speed. The average emission factors of CO, total hydrocarbons (THC), and NO_x for the selected vehicles are (4.96±2.90), (1.88±1.03) and (6.54±1.90) g km⁻¹, respectively. The vehicle emission rates vary significantly with factors like speed and acceleration. The test results reflect the actual traffic situation and the current emission status of diesel trucks in Shanghai. The measurements show that low-speed conditions with frequent acceleration and deceleration, particularly in congestion conditions, are the main factors that aggravate vehicle emissions and cause high emissions of CO and THC. Alleviating congestion would significantly improve vehicle fuel economy and reduce CO and THC emissions.     

Observations and model simulations of carbon monoxide emission factors from a California highway

A series of twelve intensively monitored 1-hr CO dispersion studies were conducted near Davis, CA, in winter 1996. The experimental equipment included twelve CO sampling ports at elevations up to 50 m, three sonic anemometers, a tethersonde station, aircraft measurements of wind and temperature profile aloft, and a variety of conventional meteorological equipment. The study was designed to explore the role of vehicular exhaust buoyancy during worst-case meteorological conditions, such as low winds oriented in near-parallel alignment with the road during a surface-based nocturnal inversion. From the study, field estimates of the CO emission factor (EF) from a California vehicle fleet were computed using two different methods. The analysis suggests that the CT-EMFAC/EMFAC (EMission FACtor) models currently used to conduct federal conformity modeling significantly overpredict CO emissions for high-speed, free-flowing traffic on California highways.     

A modal approach to vehicular emissions and fuel consumption model development

This study reports on the analysis of emissions and fuel consumption from motor vehicles using a modal approach. The four standard driving modes are idling, accelerating, cruising, and decelerating. On-road data were collected using instrumented test vehicles traveling many times through the urban areas of Hong Kong. A model was developed for estimating vehicular fuel consumption and emissions as a function of instantaneous speed and driving mode. Piecewise interpolation functions were proposed for each nonidling driving mode. Idling emission and fuel consumption rates were estimated as negative exponential functions of idling time. Preliminary modeling results showed good agreements for the test vehicles and indicated that the on-road measurements are feasible for the development of modal emission and fuel consumption models.     

Comparison of air pollutant emissions among mega-cities

Ambient measurements of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides from three mega-cities (Beijing, Mexico City, Tokyo) are compared with similar measurements from US cities in the mid-1980s and the early 2000s. The common hydrocarbon pattern seen in all data sets suggests that emissions associated with gasoline-fueled vehicles dominate in all of these cities. This commonality suggests that it will be efficient and, ultimately, cost effective to proceed with vehicular emission controls in most emerging mega-cities, while proceeding with development of more locally appropriate air quality control strategies through emissions inventory development and ambient air monitoring. Over the three decades covered by the US data sets, the hydrocarbon emissions decreased by a significant factor (something like an order of magnitude), which is greater than suggested by emission inventories, particularly the EDGAR international inventory. The ambient hydrocarbon and CO concentrations reported for the three non-US mega-cities are higher than present US ambient concentrations, but lower than those observed in the 1980s in the US. The one exception to the preceding statement is the high concentrations of CO observed in Beijing, which apparently have a large regional contribution.     

深圳市在用柴油公交车排放研究

以公交车为例,利用OBS-2200和ELPI(electrical low pressure impactor)对深圳市重型柴油车(high-duty diesel vehicles,HDDVs)进行了3次在实际道路上的车载排放测试.根据测试数据计算了NOx和PM排放因子及百公里油耗,并分析了不同道路、不同工况对NOx...     

Emission inventory for the road transport sector in Sardinia (Italy)

Atmospheric emission inventories are important tools for studying air quality and to set up possible remediation plans in areas characterised by nonattainment of the limit values established by legislation. In industrialised countries a considerable fraction of the emissions is due to road traffic, in particular in urban areas. For this reason emissions from road traffic must be estimated as accurately as possible, a task that can be performed, for the European vehicle fleet, thanks to the availability of the COPERT III methodology. This methodology is powerful and accurate, even if its algorithms can be difficult to apply in a regional emission inventory; moreover the collection of the necessary input data requires a lot of resources and time. This paper describes the road traffic emission inventory estimated for Region Sardinia (Italy) with a bottom-up approach. The estimation has been done by means of a software tool (EMITRA—EMIssions from road TRAnsport) which implements the COPERT III methodology. The resulting emission inventory has been compared against another emission inventory for Sardinia and against emission inventories for other Italian regions, to evaluate its reliability.     

Real-world fuel use and gaseous emission rates for flex fuel vehicles operated on E85 versus gasoline

Flex fuel vehicles (FFVs) typically operate on gasoline or E85, an 85%/15% volume blend of ethanol and gasoline. Differences in FFV fuel use and tailpipe emission rates are quantified for E85 versus gasoline based on real-world measurements of five FFVs with a portable emissions measurement system (PEMS), supplemented chassis dynamometer data, and estimates from the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model. Because of inter-vehicle variability, an individual FFV may have higher nitrogen oxide (NO_x) or carbon monoxide (CO) emission rates on E85 versus gasoline, even though average rates are lower. Based on PEMS data, the comparison of tailpipe emission rates for E85 versus gasoline is sensitive to vehicle-specific power (VSP). For example, although CO emission rates are lower for all VSP modes, they are proportionally lowest at higher VSP. Driving cycles with high power demand are more advantageous with respect to CO emissions, but less advantageous for NO_x. Chassis dynamometer data are available for 121 FFVs at 50,000 useful life miles. Based on the dynamometer data, the average difference in tailpipe emissions for E85 versus gasoline is ?23% for NO_x, ?30% for CO, and no significant difference for hydrocarbons (HC). To account for both the fuel cycle and tailpipe emissions from the vehicle, a life cycle inventory was conducted. Although tailpipe NO_x emissions are lower for E85 versus gasoline for FFVs and thus benefit areas where the vehicles operate, the life cycle NO_x emissions are higher because the NO_x emissions generated during fuel production are higher. The fuel production emissions take place typically in rural areas. Although there are not significant differences in the total HC emissions, there are differences in HC speciation. The net effect of lower tailpipe NO_x emissions and differences in HC speciation on ozone formation should be further evaluated.

Implications: Reported comparisons of flex fuel vehicle (FFV) tailpipe emission rates for E85 versus gasoline have been inconsistent. To date, this is the most comprehensive evaluation of available and new data. The large range of inter-vehicle variability illustrates why prior studies based on small sample sizes led to apparently contradictory findings. E85 leads to significant reductions in tailpipe nitrogen oxide (NO_x) and carbon monoxide (CO) emission rates compared with gasoline, indicating a potential benefit for ozone air quality management in NO_x-limited areas. The comparison of FFV tailpipe emissions between E85 and gasoline is sensitive to power demand and driving cycles.