基于本体的突发事件应急决策知识模型研究

应急决策是突发公共事件应急管理过程中最为关键的环节.目前应急决策主要依赖事先制定的应急预案,这种方法比较全面、规范,但缺乏灵活性.针对这一问题,引入本体论的概念,将突发事件应急决策相关的知识整合为领域本体,并借助语义检索技术,实现应急决策相关知识的查询和推理.最后利用Java Web相关技术,开发了一个应急决策知识模型的原型系统.该系统摆脱了应急预案等静态文本的固定格式,更强调概念和概念间的关系,比传统的应急预案更为灵活.     

A further examination of managerial burnout: Toward an integrated model

A model of managerial burnout was examined among 148 human service supervisors and managers. The findings suggest that emotional exhaustion plays a central mediating role in the burnout process. Social support and direct control were associated with exhaustion through role stress. Job and life satisfaction, and time spent with clients and subordinates were also related to exhaustion. In turn, exhaustion was related to depersonalization, professional commitment, and turnover intentions. An expected reciprocal relation between exhaustion and helplessness was not found, as the former had only a weak impact on the latter. Implications for stress coping are discussed.     

货运网络风险决策的变分不等式模型及算法

以往的货运网络均衡研究注重参与者之间的利润均衡,缺少对运输安全风险因子规律的分析.针对这一问题,考虑运输安全风险成本,对托运人、承运人和运输管理者3个参与者的运营收益进行分析,提出了道路货运网络均衡的变分不等式模型,通过变步长投影算法完成优化模型的求解和验证.最后,通过使用模拟数据集揭示道路货运安全风险发生的主要规律.结果表明,该方法能有效找到运输网络利润与安全风险的均衡点.     

A contingency model of decision-making involving risk of accidental loss

Decision-making involving risk of accidental loss occurs in a variety of settings. The constraints of the decision settings have a strong impact on decision-making. Different decision settings may thus call for different approaches to decision support. The purpose of this paper is to propose a contingency model of decision-making involving risk of accidental loss. Based on two dimensions, (a) proximity to hazard and (b) level of authority, I identify five types of decision settings: (1) operations, (2) business management, (3) administrative and technical support functions, (4) political arenas, and (5) crisis handling. Each setting is characterised in terms of dominant constraints, dominant decision criteria, and representative decision modes.Decision-making is constrained and influenced by previous decisions, and decisions may interact in the way they influence the risk of accidental loss. The following set of concepts may help us identify ways in which safety may be affected by interactions between decisions: (1) distributed decision-making and local optimization, (2) meta-decisions, (3) absorption of uncertainty, and (4) normalization of deviance.Advice for improving decision-making can be derived from the proposed model by identifying possible problems related to each type of decision setting and each pattern of interaction between decisions. The possible problems may be used as a basis for identifying relevant functions of decision aids and to propose specific decision aids. A similar analysis may be performed with regard to the ways in which decisions may interact in their impact on safety.     

A role and expectancy model of participative decision-making: A replication and theoretical extension

Schuler's process model of employee participation in decision-making and job satisfaction (Schuler, 1980; Lee and Schuler, 1982) was tested using a path analytic approach. Reanalysis of Schuler's data and replication on a new sample indicated that (a) participation in decision-making has both direct and indirect effects on job satisfaction; and (b) performance–outcome expectancy, role conflict, and role ambiguity all appear to mediate the relationship between participation and satisfaction. In an extension of the model, organizational level and job involvement were hypothesized to moderate the participation–satisfaction relationship (i.e. function interactively). Although neither variable functions as a moderator, job involvement operates in a fashion similar to participation in the model. In general, consistent results across four independent samples strongly support Schuler's basic process model.     

有毒化学品泄漏事故应急疏散决策优化模型研究

采用高斯烟团模型模拟有毒化学品泄漏后的扩散区域,确定应急疏散范围;采用线性规划方法,建立应急疏散优化模型,并利用Lingo优化软件求解该模型.以液氯泄漏事故为例,研究危险区域的人员疏散,确定最佳应急疏散方案.本研究为一线指挥人员的最优疏散方案决策提供了参考.     

Social support and managerial affective responses to job stress

This research examines the moderating or buffering effects of two social support variables—support from the work group and from the supervisor—on the relationships of role conflict and ambiguity to intrinsic job satisfaction, job involvement and job anxiety. Data were collected from a sample of 89 middle-lower managerial personnel in a large, heavy equipment manufacturing firm in the Midwest. The moderated regression technique was used in data analysis. Significant interactions were obtained between the role variables and both social support variables. The results were in the predicted direction for positive work outcomes (i.e. job satisfaction and involvement) and contrary to prediction for negative work outcome (i.e. job anxiety). Implications of the findings for future research, the management of stress and leadership behaviour are discussed.     

SESAR safety decision-making: Lessons from environmental,nuclear and defense modeling

SESAR, the ‘Single European Sky Air traffic Research’ program, envisages radical changes for European Air Traffic Management (ATM). It integrates and implements new technologies and information processing. This paper examines the safety decision-making in the implementation of SESAR projects. SESAR poses new safety problems because it adopts new paradigms for ATM safety – what lessons are there from environmental, nuclear and defense modeling? These disciplines have also had to confront the limitations of modeling the rates of rare and damaging – even catastrophic – events. A major conceptual change in SESAR is that of automated separation assurance systems. Some existing responsibilities transfer from the controller – either to the pilot or to computer systems – in a progressively phased approach. The major problem for SESAR safety validation is that mixed equipage/operations within a common airspace potentially generate new and different safety issues regarding the validation of safety predictions. A potential way forward uses high-fidelity Human In The Loop Simulations (HITLS) to generate confidence in the resilience of the ATM system. The focus changes from proving safety, i.e. through traditional kinds of validation processes, to extensive resilience testing using these simulations. The aim would be to test how resilient the system is to seeded errors, penetration testing, and crash/stress testing. This would be a high cost process because of the large investments required and the need for long sequences of testing. However, these demanding processes can provide ‘justified belief’ to the decision-maker that the changed ATM system is acceptably safe.     

Predictors of willingness to relocate for managerial and professional employees

This study explored possible determinants, both inside and outside the job sphere, of willingness to relocate. Data were collected from a large sample of managerial and professional employees in one organization. Unlike previous research, this study investigated willingness to relocate for three different purposes: (1) for a better job or career development; (2) to help the organization; or (3) to remain employed. However, only two factors of willingness to relocate emerged: willingness to relocate for career enhancement or company needs, and willingness to relocate to remain employed. Results showed that the strongest predictors of willingness to relocate to remain employed were job sphere variables such as satisfaction with career development opportunities and propensity to remain, while family and community variables were much more important in predicting willingness to relocate for career enhancement or company needs. The implications of these results for both the organization and individuals are discussed.     

垂管方式对环境监测质量管理体系的建设性意见

实现环境监测领域的垂直管理是国家做出的一项重要决定。这样有利于全面提高环境监测的质量,满足日益严格的环境监测质量工作需求。因此就需要创建出更加优质的环境检测质量管理体系,完善法律法规,利用垂直管理方式来全方位提高工作效果。本文将对利用垂管方式建设环境监测质量管理体系进行深入研究。     

Work role centrality of industrial workers as related to organizational conditions,task autonomy,managerial orientations and personal characteristics

The study shows that, for a sample of 818 industrial workers, work role centrality (WRC) is positively related to task autonomy and to organizational conditions of sector of ownership, unit-type of production system, and production stability; it is also weakly related to the orientations of production managers concerning the sharing of information, general supervision and granting autonomy. The task autonomy - work role centrality relationship is maintained beyond other organizational conditions, but the effects of managerial orientations are attenuated by task autonomy and by organizational conditions. Situational conditions such as production system and stability, managerial orientations and task autonomy add to the variance of WRC explained by personal attributes of gender, education and job training, and by the outcome of job satisfaction, and a combined model of both types of variables is the most efficient. Generally, work role centrality is found to be a fairly sensitive response to the work situation, but it is suggested that perceptual and attitudinal data be added to the explanatory model.     

安全认知观念的研究与决策分析

通过分析当前石油石化企业发生的事故数据,发现由于人为因素造成的事故时有发生,给企业安全生产造成重大影响。为了深入了解造成事故发生的人为因素产生根源,笔者通过多种方式获取资料,利用系统论研究方法,得出了企业员工和管理者普遍存在的安全认知观念。在此基础上,提出员工和管理者之间推荐的共同安全认知观念,从观念上让员工和管理者对不安全行为形成一致的认知,并在减少员工不安全行为、规范员工的安全行为方面给出了行之有效的解决方法,即在企业推行行为安全管理工具-HSE观察卡。应用结果表明,通过推行HSE观察卡,可有效提高企业员工在现场作业活动中的安全作业意识,从而避免或减少由于人的不安全行为造成事故发生率,提升了企业安全生产水平。     

An investigation of the willingness of managerial employees to accept an expatriate assignment

Data obtained with the aid of structured questionnaires from a Singaporean managerial sample (N = 228) were used to examine receptivity to an expatriate assignment in terms of the cultural similarity or dissimilarity of the country of relocation. Results of a paired t-test indicated that respondents were significantly more receptive to an expatriate assignment in a culturally similar location than in a culturally dissimilar location. Results of hierarchical regression analyses revealed mixed support for the study's propositions and explained only modest amounts of the variance in the culturally similar (R² = 22 per cent) and dissimilar (R² = 20 per cent) models. Limitations of the study, directions for future research and implications of the findings are discussed.     

Pedestrian crossing decision-making: A situational and behavioral approach

Among road users, pedestrians are those whose continued trajectory is the less constrained by the environment and by the regulation rules. Consequently, the choice of where, when and how to cross roads are more or less conforming with the awaited behavior. Proceeding with an experimental approach, from observations of pedestrian crossings to the modeling of the decision-making process, a categorization of both environments and of pedestrian behavior is proposed.     

Turning gap acceptance decision-making: the impact of driver distraction

PROBLEM: A number of studies have found that use of in-car phones by drivers can interfere with the cognitive processing necessary for making appropriate and timely vehicle control decisions. However, the specific linkage between communication-based distraction and unsafe decision-making has not been sufficiently explored. METHOD: In a closed-course driving experiment, 39 subjects were exposed to approximately 100 gaps each in a circulating traffic stream of eight vehicles on an instrumented test track that was wet about half the time. The subjects were at the controls of an instrumented car, which was oriented in a typical left-turn configuration (traffic-crossing situation in North America) and with parking brake on and the transmission in neutral. The subjects were instructed to press on the accelerator pedal when they felt that a gap was safe to accept. Their performances were monitored and incentives were provided for balancing safe decision-making with expeditious completion of the task. For half of the gap exposures (randomly assigned), each subject was required to listen and respond to a complex verbal message. RESULTS: When not distracted, the subjects' gap acceptance judgment was found to be significantly influenced by their age, the gap size, the speed of the trailing vehicle, the level of "indecision," and the condition of the track surface. However, when distracted, the subjects did not factor pavement surface condition into the decision process. On wet pavement, the subjects were judged to have initiated twice the level of potential collisions when distracted by the messages that they did when not distracted. DISCUSSION: Listening/responding to verbal messages may reduce the capacity of drivers to process adequately all the important information necessary for safe decision-making. The effects of the messages in our study seemed to cause the subjects to misjudge gap size and speed information when operating under the additional disadvantage of adverse pavement condition. SUMMARY: Attention to complex messages while making decisions about turning through gaps in an on-coming vehicle stream was associated with significantly increased unsafe decision making by subjects in our experiment when the additional complexity of wet surface condition was introduced. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: While the results reflected a somewhat artificial situation where the measure was signaled intention to act rather than the act itself, nevertheless, they do strongly suggest a scenario in which mental distraction could contribute to crash risk. With the rapid proliferation of telematics in the vehicle market, even with the laudable objectives represented by the Intelligent Transportation Systems initiative, there is a danger of the primary task of the driver being subordinated to a perceived need to enhance information flow to/from the external "world." Industry and governments need to work together to ensure that apparently desirable in-vehicle communication improvements do not compromise safety.     

CREAM失误概率预测法在驾驶舱机组判断与决策过程中的应用

CREAM强调人在生产活动中的绩效输出不是孤立的随机性行为,而是依赖于人完成任务时所处的环境或工作条件,它通过影响人的认知控制模式和其在不同认知活动中的效应,最终决定人的响应行为。在驾驶舱内,机组的绩效输出不仅仅是人的自身行为,还依赖于其完成任务时所处的情景环境,所以CREAM方法能够结合驾驶舱环境对机组的认知差错进行分析。在飞行中,驾驶舱内机组非常重要的一个环节是判断与决策过程,这一过程中包括询问、讨论、确定方案、执行、反馈五个环节。本文将通过分析这五个环节的相互关系及影响,以明确这种讨论过程是减少机组人为差错发生的一种有益方式,然后应用CREAM的预测法对这五个环节进行定量化分析,得出机组判断与决策过程的失误概率,完成对机组认知行为的客观评价,并为以后能够定量化研究驾驶舱内飞行员认知差错提供方法的借鉴。     

中青年人群对于地铁站疏散标识的决策行为模拟分析

目的是模拟分析地铁火灾时不同行为特点中青年人群对疏散标识的决策反应。方法采用构建地铁站台火灾时烟气蔓延的三维空间模型,在中青年人群中进行应急疏散的仿真实验,利用统计分析软件SPSSv14.0对采集到的数据进行统计分析。结果得到性别、成长环境和专业背景等不同人员行为特点与疏散标识决策反应的相关性,并对疏散标识的字体、图案特性进行选优。得出结论,性别、成长环境和专业背景与人员对不同疏散标识的决策反应有一定的相关性。图形为主要设计元素的疏散标识是地铁站台火灾烟气条件下疏散人员的优先选择。     

TOPSIS法在职业危害综合控制方案决策中的应用

职业危害控制方案决策属于多属性决策,应用Topsis法对职业危害控制方案进行决策,可以满足不同工艺、不同作业条件、不同经济、技术水平企业选择适宜的职业危害控制方案的需求,以达到有效控制职业危害的目的。Topsis法用于企业职业危害控制方案进行决策具有较好的准确性、实用性,是一种较易于操作、客观的综合决策方法。     

基于GIS的城市生活垃圾规划管理智能决策方法

对城市生活垃圾治理系统进行规划管理是克服治理过程中混乱不协调所带来的问题、提高治理决策有效性的根本方法.提出了基于GIS的城市生活垃圾规划管理智能决策方法.将"城市生活垃圾治理系统"的决策划分为3个层次,在此基础上构建总体规划方案,并将人工智能技术和GIS与总体规划中的模型相集成,给出了该方法的一般性决策模型,对该方法的决策过程和主要创新也进行了详细描述,为构建基于GIS的城市生活垃圾规划管理智能决策系统提供了依据.     

Impact of training programs on decision-making and situation awareness of trainee watch officers

This paper examines the impact of training programs on the ability of trainee watch officers to make decisions in collision avoidance situations.It draws on previous studies which have shown that experts are able to manage complex situations in an acceptable way. However, observations of students on simulators have revealed that many of them are unable to manage such situations or even to recall their main features. It is therefore necessary to identify new training tools that will give trainees the capacity to assess a situation quickly and accurately, and to perform satisfactory actions. These would be in addition to formal regulations.Exercises were designed to evaluate the impact of such tools on the decision-making process of trainees. The impact of the type of navigation experienced by trainees during their on-the-job training was also evaluated.Results showed that decision-making exercises did tend to improve the trainees’ capacity to analyse a complex situation; however, they did not have a clear impact on the manoeuvre performed. On the contrary, there was an obvious difference between the trainees who experienced complex avoidance situations during their on-the-job training period and those who did not.At a time where ship-owners are looking to reduce the length of the “on-the-job” training period, these results point to its vital importance.