Utility estimates of job performance as related to the Data,People, and Things parameters of work

The purpose of this study was to investigate the applicability of the Schmidt–Hunter global estimation method of assessing utility across a broad range of jobs. Ninety-five industrial/organizational psychologists estimated the utility of performance in 24 carefully selected jobs. The utility estimates were compared to the Data, People, and Things worker function parameters from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles. The majority of jobs (62.5 per cent) produced significantly positively skewed distributions of dollar-valued job performance. The Data, People, and Things parameters accounted for 46 per cent of the variance in the non-symmetry of the utility distributions and 33 per cent of the variance in the inter-rater reliability of the utility estimates. The implications of the results were discussed for utility assessment, and explained from a decision theoretic perspective. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The multiple pathways of high performing groups: the interaction of social networks and group processes

This study examines how both strong and weak relationship groups (groups with numerous, intense internal friendship ties and few, less intense internal friendship ties respectively) achieve high performance when utilizing strategies that capitalize on the strengths and minimizing the weaknesses associated with their internal social structure. We examine the interactions of groups' internal friendship networks with their external network structures (external ties) and internal intragroup conflict (constructive controversy). The results of a study using survey, archival and interview data on 35 groups of MBA students indicated that internal friendship networks interacted with constructive controversy and external networks to determine when groups would achieve superior performance. High performing strong relationship groups engaged in greater constructive controversy than low performing strong relationship groups, while constructive controversy appeared to have minimal effect on the performance of weak relationship groups. High performing weak relationship groups had fewer external bridging ties to other groups when compared to low performing weak relationship groups, while external bridging ties appeared to have minimal effect on the performance of strong relationship groups. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

农民工职业危害防护需求意愿调查分析

为了调查农民工职业危害防护的具体需求意愿及他们对企业职业危害管理现状的认知,分析农民工职业危害防护需求意愿与农民工职业危害防护行为之间的关系。采用问卷调查的定量调查方法进行调查。调查对象中男性农民工409人,女性农民工157人。参与问卷调查的农民工,均接触一种及以上的职业性有害因素。调查内容包括了解公司预防和控制职业病的政策,参与公司的职业危害管理决策,实施的职业性健康安全培训、健康监护、个人防护用品的使用等预防和控制职业病的管理措施等方面,本次调查显示,农民工对于预防职业危害表现出强烈的需求愿望,且对企业的职业危害防护现况表示了不满,倾向于采取极端的行为维护自身的健康权益。但另一方面,农民工实际参与企业职业危害防护的行为率较低,与他们的需求意愿相比有明显的差距。     

模糊群体决策方法在应急决策中的应用

在分析应急预案内容及应急决策特点的基础上,针对应急决策中许多信息无法定量描述的问题,运用模糊集合理论,建立了在事故灾难复杂环境下对应急决策进行动态调整的模糊群体决策方法。该方法包括构造模糊偏好关系、设计备选方案选择的多属性群体决策模型和群体决策一致性的检验标准等内容,可以辅助应急决策者选择最佳决策方案。通过实证表明,该计算方法及实用效果,为突发事故应急预案的制订和事故现场的应急决策提供参考。     

A contingency model of decision-making involving risk of accidental loss

Decision-making involving risk of accidental loss occurs in a variety of settings. The constraints of the decision settings have a strong impact on decision-making. Different decision settings may thus call for different approaches to decision support. The purpose of this paper is to propose a contingency model of decision-making involving risk of accidental loss. Based on two dimensions, (a) proximity to hazard and (b) level of authority, I identify five types of decision settings: (1) operations, (2) business management, (3) administrative and technical support functions, (4) political arenas, and (5) crisis handling. Each setting is characterised in terms of dominant constraints, dominant decision criteria, and representative decision modes.Decision-making is constrained and influenced by previous decisions, and decisions may interact in the way they influence the risk of accidental loss. The following set of concepts may help us identify ways in which safety may be affected by interactions between decisions: (1) distributed decision-making and local optimization, (2) meta-decisions, (3) absorption of uncertainty, and (4) normalization of deviance.Advice for improving decision-making can be derived from the proposed model by identifying possible problems related to each type of decision setting and each pattern of interaction between decisions. The possible problems may be used as a basis for identifying relevant functions of decision aids and to propose specific decision aids. A similar analysis may be performed with regard to the ways in which decisions may interact in their impact on safety.     

The contingent effect of constructive confrontation on the relationship between shared mental models and decision quality

Work teams are being utilized more frequently to give organizations access to the broader knowledge and skill base of employees, as well as to provide for adaptive, efficient decision‐making. In teams, we argue that constructive confrontation norms are an important contingency variable in the relationship between mental model similarity and decision quality. Mental model similarity helps team members understand one another's perspectives and reduces the likelihood of conflict. Accordingly, mental model similarity improves decision quality. When strong norms of constructive confrontation are in place, however, teams are in a better position to reap the benefits of conflict (greater diversity of inputs) without experiencing its negative consequences. Thus, when constructive confrontation norms are strong, less mental model similarity (i.e., more diversity of perspectives) is likely to improve decision quality. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于前景理论和BWM的深基坑支护方案综合评价

针对深基坑施工工程的复杂性及决策者风险态度对多指标决策的影响,构建了融合前景理论的深基坑施工支护最优方案选择模型。首先建立深基坑支护方案优选决策问题的多目标评价指标体系,借鉴TOPSIS思想将正、负理想方案作为决策者参照值,在此基础上,进一步将灰色关联分析法引入前景理论定义了正、负价值函数;通过BWM方法得出各指标的客观权重,根据权重函数得到决策者对客观权重的主观评价,在此基础上计算每个备选方案的综合前景值并排序,获得最优支护方案。最终通过两个工程实例验证了模型的有效性,并通过与其他方法比较说明了该模型在准确性方面的优势。     

基于信息熵评价决策模型的突发公共事件应急处置指挥方案优选

提出基于信息熵评价决策模型对突发公共事件应急处置指挥决策中的作战方案进行优选的方法。首先介绍应急处置指挥决策的概念和过程;其次,分析了信息熵以及基于信息熵评价模型的多属性决策方法;最后,给出基于信息熵的评价决策模型在突发公共事件应急处置指挥方案优选中的应用。实地演练表明,该决策模型在应急指挥决策方案排序与优选是客观合理、切实可行的,能够为应急处置指挥决策提供一定的参考。     

Agricultural accidents in north eastern region of India

An investigation was conducted to characterize the agricultural accidents, their magnitude, causes, severity and economic consequences in one of the states of north eastern region of India, Arunachal Pradesh. The accident data for 6 years between years 2000 and 2005 were collected by conducting a survey and personal interview of the victims in 42 selected villages of 4 districts. Agricultural accident incident rate was 6.39 per 1000 workers/year. All the accidents were non-fatal. Farm implement-related accidents accounted for 40% of the accidents. Slashing of shrubs accounted for one-third of the accidents causing cut and hit injuries of moderate severity. Twenty-five per cent of the accidents occurred on the way to or from the field leading to severe or serious injuries. Two-third of the accidents occurred within 4 h of start of work. Thirty-three per cent of the victims were 40–49 years of age. Based on the analysis, both passive and active measures have been suggested to minimize or prevent the occurrence of agricultural accidents.     

老龄海底油气管道弃置决策研究

针对我国老龄海底油气管道在弃置决策上缺少理论依据的问题,建立老龄海底油气管道弃置决策模型的结构流程,基于多属性效用理论,从4个维度进行分析,选取影响老龄海底管道安全寿命的工程因素、结构因素、风险因素和影响决策的成本因素,构建属性树;运用模糊理论建立模糊互补判断矩阵,综合专家意见计算各属性权重,并进行影响因素敏感性分析;确定老龄海底管道弃置决策评分准则,对属性树各因素取值进行量化,引入成本效益率量化成本因素;采用逻辑运算计算综合得分,根据综合得分进行弃置决策。工程实例应用表明:相比于传统决策方法仅凭设计寿命作为弃置依据,老龄海底管道弃置决策模型不仅避免了单一性,还能反应服役环境对管道的影响,有利于提高管道服役过程的经济性和安全性。     

应急决策的理论与方法探讨

围绕基于模板的规划、组织决策协调与基于Agent系统的协调机制以及马尔可夫决策规划等应急决策的关键理论与方法,对国内外相关研究进行分析与总结;提出以决策理论规划为应急决策研究的主要建模和分析框架;采用逻辑程序与规划相结合的思想,研究基于应急预案模板的应急决策规划方法;基于应急处置任务的时间、资源约束关系,研究应急处置任务的多Agent马尔可夫决策建模及求解方法。基于决策理论规划的应急决策理论可以很好地用于应急决策的多阶段动态过程建模,而且能够利用预案模板降低模型求解的难度。上述研究完善和丰富了应急决策的理论和方法,为科学的应急决策实践以及应急决策支持系统提供了一种理论和方法。     

基于生态安全约束的再生利用项目规划设计方案决策

为确保我国旧工业建筑(区)再生利用项目方案设计阶段免受生态破坏与环境污染等因素的影响,提出了"生态安全约束"这一概念。考虑到决策者面对收益和损失的不同态度引入了前景理论,建立了生态安全约束下基于前景理论再生利用项目规划设计方案决策模型。首先,构建了包含总体规划、建筑设计、传承保护等因素的决策指标体系,并采用AHP与熵权相结合的方法计算权重,使得权重计算结果不仅体现了决策者的主管意愿,也反映了再生利用项目的客观规律;其次,以决策者预期值作为参考点给出期望矢量,将不同属性的决策数据信息规范化处理得初始决策矩阵,再根据指标间相对参考点的差值建立前景决策矩阵,通过计算各方案的综合前景值以确定最优方案。最后,通过北京首钢、云南871、陕西老钢厂、太原锅炉厂等5个实例的再生利用项目规划设计方案决策过程加以验证。结果表明,模型计算过程清晰,结果可信度高,验证了模型的合理性和科学性,可为规划设计阶段有效控制生态环境破坏与厂区环境污染提供新的思路。     

基于可变模糊优选理论的应急指挥决策

在分析应急指挥决策方案的优选问题基础上,将可变模糊理论引入公共安全领域,提出应急指挥方案优选的可变模糊方法。该方法依据指标特征值矩阵,结合指标权重向量,计算各方案在不同模型下的相对优属度向量,并以此进行决策。其特点是模型可以变化以提高系统决策的可靠性。结合应急救援实例探讨可变模糊优选方法在应急决策中的应用,并与文献中的方法进行比较,表明可变模糊优选理论对于解决优选决策问题可行、有效,有助于指导应急决策实践。     

Job demands,job resources,and their relationship with burnout and engagement: a multi‐sample study

This study focuses on burnout and its positive antipode—engagement. A model is tested in which burnout and engagement have different predictors and different possible consequences. Structural equation modeling was used to simultaneously analyze data from four independent occupational samples (total N = 1698). Results confirm the hypothesized model indicating that: (1) burnout and engagement are negatively related, sharing between 10 per cent and 25 per cent of their variances; (2) burnout is mainly predicted by job demands but also by lack of job resources, whereas engagement is exclusively predicted by available job resources; (3) burnout is related to health problems as well as to turnover intention, whereas engagement is related only to the latter; (4) burnout mediates the relationship between job demands and health problems, whereas engagement mediates the relationship between job resources and turnover intention. The fact that burnout and engagement exhibit different patterns of possible causes and consequences implies that different intervention strategies should be used when burnout is to be reduced or engagement is to be enhanced. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城市火灾案例库辅助决策方法的研究

在对城市火灾事故案例进行全面调查、统计和分类分析的基础上,提出一种城市火灾案例特征属性的表示框架,对特征属性进行了层次化和结构化,同时对属性值的取值进行较为科学而严格的定义,进而应用混合相似度度量方法和粗糙-模糊集方法提炼案例中蕴涵的灭火救援知识,给出一种灭火救援辅助决策过程模型;通过查找最相似案例和案例库提炼出相关的灭火救援规则进行灭火救援辅助决策;成功进行了实例验证。该模型的建立可为城市火灾案例智能决策系统的研究提供参考。     

Firm relocation as a potential solution for environment improvement using a SWOT-AHP hybrid method

Global economic expansion and increasing concentration of people in the large cities, especially in developing countries leads to some environmental issues such as air pollution. Relocation of the firms as a great air pollutant can be an appropriate alternative for diminishing these pollutions. Yet, there is a lack of research about factors precluding firm relocation with respect to decision making factors when determining whether or not to relocate. Thus, the purpose of this case study is to examine firm relocation decision-making factors and to apprehend the role of environment issues in making them using a combination of SWOT matrix and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The combination yields analytically determined priority factors and makes them commensurable. The results indicated that decision makers at this firm consider weaknesses, more importantly than strengths, opportunities and threats. Specifically, eradicating from a large market is the most significant factor for decision makers and notably diminishing air pollution as a governmental concern ranked third.     

森林火灾防治决策专家系统的研究与实现

笔者比较系统地收集、研究了林火专家多年积累的理论、经验和解决问题的方法以及各种预测模型、模型的适应条件和使用规则等 ,利用人工智能和COM组件技术 ,通过模型技术和专家系统技术的有机结合 ,建立了基于网络的森林火灾防治决策专家系统。实现了森林火灾从火灾预测、林火扑救决策、清理火场、看守火场到最后的损失评估全过程的推理辅助决策 ;实现了整个决策过程中预测模型和预测结果随外界条件的突变而进行的实时修正 ,从而真正实现了森林火灾管理各个阶段的实时性、准确性和正确性。     

基于前景理论的地铁施工灾后重建方案决策研究

为解决地铁施工灾后有限重建方案的多属性决策问题,以技术先进性、工程造价、工期、对周围居民的生活的影响及环境保护措施可靠性作为决策属性指标,采用考虑决策者参照依赖、损失规避和敏感性递减等心理行为特征的多属性决策分析方法—前景理论,以综合前景值的大小作为评价指标,进行重建方案的选择,计算结果与工程实际较吻合。该研究方法可用于灾后重建方案的决策问题,为决策者提供了理论参考和决策依据。     

应急救援物资车辆运输线路的选择

为了给紧急救援物资支持保障中心的物资调度人员提供科学的车辆路线调度决策方法,提高应急救援工作的响应能力,基于应急条件下物资运输调度的时效性、安全性和经济性特征,运用旅行商理论,对上述3个决策属性分量进行了数学描述,构造了它们的目标函数,并进行了无量纲和权重聚合处理,继而按照多属性决策理论建立了用来评价备选线路决策效用函数的数学模型.利用期望效用属性合并所搜集的信息,将多属性决策问题转化成单属性决策问题,确立了选择具有最高期望效用方案的方法,最后进行了实例分析.结果表明,应急救援条件下的运输调度与正常环境下的企业运输调度决策目标之间存在明显的差异,前者虽然本质上属于图论中最短路线问题的范畴,但由于多个决策目标的存在,不能直接运用最短路线模型和Dijkstra算法求解.运用多属性决策理论建立的评价备选线路决策效用函数,是有关人员进行车辆路线安排的有效方法,但其相对优越性尚需做进一步的研究和探讨.     

Occupational stress among health care workers: A test of the job demands-control model

Models of occupational stress have often failed to make explicit the variable of control over the environment, as well as the role of job socialization in shaping personality characteristics and coping behaviours. This neglect has helped maintain the focus of stress reduction interventions on the individual. A new model of occupational stress developed by Robert Karasek incorporates control and socialization effects and has successfully predicted the development of heart disease and psychological strain. A survey instrument derived from the model was distributed to 771 hospital and nursing home employees in New Jersey, and 289 (37.5 per cent) were returned. Respondents did not significantly differ from non-respondents by age, sex, job tenure, union membership status, job satisfaction, job perceptions and attitude towards employer and union. The results support the hypothesis that reported job strain (job dissatisfaction, depression, psychosomatic symptoms) and burnout is significantly higher in jobs that combine high workload demands with low decision latitude. This association remained significant after controlling for age, sex, education, marital status, children, hours worked per week and shift worked. Other job characteristics (job insecurity, physical exertion, social support, hazard exposure) were also associated with strain and burnout. The survey instrument also identified high strain jobtitles in the surveyed workplaces. The results are discussed in relation to directions for future research, research on stress in nursing, and approaches to stress reduction.