新疆叶尔羌河突发洪水规律研究

叶尔羌河灾害性突发洪水系由冰川阻塞湖泄洪所致。通过三年野外考察(1985～1987年)和详尽分析洪水的特点、分布及成因,归结叶尔羌河灾害性洪水发生规律如下:①大部分是由叶尔羌河上源的克亚吉尔特索湖迅速排水所致。②洪水多出现在8月底至9月中旬,迟於年内最高气温出现日期;洪水多出现在≥5℃积温的峰值年份,和夏季(6～8月)600hPa高空气温的峰值时期。③实测克亚吉尔特索湖岸边有134条湖水侵蚀-堆积线,它们深刻地反映了该冰川湖的演变过程。冰川湖突发洪水则随着冰川退缩、冰湖缩小而减弱。     

洞庭湖地区洪水灾害风险评估

综合当前国内外学者的理论及方法,以灾害风险系统是致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体共同作用的系统为基础,对洞庭湖地区进行洪水灾害风险评估,其中致灾因子用暴雨及以上降雨的加权频次来描述,孕灾环境用地形和河网密度来描述,承灾体脆弱性用内在脆弱性和抗灾救灾能力来描述。首先,对区域洪水致灾因子危险性进行评估;其次,对孕灾环境危险性进行评估;再次,对承灾体脆弱性进行评估;最后,对三者进行叠加分析得出洞庭湖地区洪水灾害风险区划图。其中,沿长江地区、湘江入湖地区和澧水河入湖地区洪水灾害风险高;其次是沿洞庭湖周围地区风险较高;洞庭湖地区边缘风险较低。     

洞庭湖区退田还湖的洪水效应模拟

洞庭湖多年平均削减入湖洪峰流量约10000m3/s,这对于保护长江中下游,特别是中游地区的防洪安全十分重要.但由于泥沙的严重淤积,以及湖泊湿地被大规模垦殖,使洞庭湖的调蓄功能下降,江湖洪水威胁加剧.1998年长江流域发生特大洪涝灾害,中央及时提出了"退田还湖、平垸行洪"等长江流域洪水治理的32字指导原则,洞庭湖区是实施该原则的重点地区.应用数值模拟方法,通过建立洞庭湖与长江耦合的水动力学数值模型,针对1998年洪水,模拟研究了洞庭湖区退田还湖的洪水效应,并设计了8种方案分别进行定量评估.结果显示,退田还湖工程的实施,对降低洞庭湖区江湖洪水位,缓解江湖洪水威胁具有重要意义.     

洪水灾变强度的定量计算

根据洪水致灾机理，提出用洪峰水位的变异程度和高水位持续时间的变异程度综合反映洪水的灾变强度，建立洪水灾变强度的计算模型。从鄱阳湖洪水特征及湖区实际情况出发，确定鄱阳湖洪水灾变计算公式，用以评价鄱阳湖洪水灾变特征。     

1998年长江流域暴雨洪水环流背景分析

１９９８年主汛期,由于西太平洋副热带持续偏南、偏强,中高纬度维持稳定的阻塞形势,６、７月雨带长期在鄱阳湖、没庭湖地区徘徊,造成长江中下游地区严重洪涝;８月随着副高北抬,长江上游出现多次强降水过程,长江干流受中下游洪水顶主上游洪峰下泻的影响,水位居高不下,多数水文站出现了超记录的历史最高水位。１９９８年的已成为一次少有的新的长江大洪水的典型。     

珠江三角洲腹地洪水位异常变化及成因分析

珠江三角洲是我国东南沿海的经济发达地区.三角洲地区的防洪安全保障对区域的社会、经济发展具有举足轻重的作用.由于三角洲地区复杂的网河及口门构成,以及径流和潮汐共同影响的水动力条件,使三角洲的洪水水势表现出随时间和空间复杂变化的动态特征.20世纪80年代以来,三角洲地区受水土资源无序开发的人类活动的影响,90年代的洪水表现出了网河腹地河段洪水位异常壅高的现象,使区域的防洪安全受到严重威胁.结合"94.6","98.6"洪水期间三角洲腹地洪水水位异常壅高现象,综合分析了区域洪水位异常壅高的外部及内在成因,为科学制订三角洲地区防洪对策提供技术依据.     

松花江干流洪水与1998年松嫩大水分析--发生规律及成因

松花江干流洪水的发生有24年和3～4年变化周期.洪水出现有明显的阶段性,在上世纪可分为4段1911-1914;1930-1940;1954-1958;1984-1998年.随着时间的推移,洪水发生频次明显增加.分析得出,嫩江流域及第二松花江和拉林河流域7,8月的过量降水是造成洪水发生的直接原因.还分析了造成洪水的高空500hPa环流背景,7,8月西藏高原至北美阿拉斯加距平场分布为“ - -“流型,鄂霍次克海为阻塞高压,东北区为低压槽控制.在大水年春季,阿留申低槽加深,并向西延伸,乌拉尔高压形成并东移加强.1998年松嫩大水的发生基本符合上述规律和环流原因.     

基于GIS的长江中下游地区洪灾风险分区及评价

国内外近几年的发展表明,在所有可能避免和减轻自然灾害的措施中,最简单有效的方法就是通过在科学研究基础上进行风险区划,将自然灾害管理提高到风险管理的水平.在长江流域数字化地图的基础上,选取不同重复期(20,50,100年),及包括1870年历史洪水和1931,1935,1954,1991,1995,1996,1998,1999和2002年共10次洪水,借助Arcview地理信息系统的空间分析和叠加功能,对长江中下游地区的洪水灾害危险性进行了初步评价.首先参考洪水灾害淹没图和相关历史文献记录资料,构建10次洪水受灾县(市)分布图;其次对这10次洪水受灾县(市)分布图进行叠加,得到长江中下游地区洪涝灾害风险性评价图.分析表明:长江中下游地区洪水风险的分布是有规律的,而且具有明显的地理意义.有4个明显的高危风险区,分别是洞庭湖、鄱阳湖两湖平原的湖滨地区和公安以下的长江中游河段的沿江一带,尤其是荆江河段以及两江相夹地势低洼的江汉平原;沿高危风险区外侧为高风险地区,重点在汉江下游、资、沅、澧水、清江流域、皖沿江地区以及太湖流域的部分地区;沿长江于高危风险和高风险地区两侧分别为风险较小地区;其他地区对于洪水灾害而言则为安全地区.评价结果与长江中下游的实际情况基本吻合.     

德国应用高科技开发防洪大堤建造新技术

德国东南部连日来遭受洪水侵袭,导致多个城市受灾严重。德国境内的主要河流,如莱茵河、多瑙河及易北河等均无法航行。不过面对特大洪水,德国多地数千名民众自愿走上街头,"阻击"洪水,参与防洪救灾。强降水导致了东欧和德国很多地方的洪水。在堤防管理人员继续对大堤结构进行隐患检查时,德国科学家呼吁:一种电子监控系统是否是解决洪水问题的关键革新。研究可监控防洪大堤2010年,在德国和波兰交界的奥得河发生洪水,造成波兰18人死亡,随着洪水向东流入德国,德国人担心同样的洪水是否会造成本国的     

西气东输工程沿线陕西段洪水风险评价

在ARC/INFO的支持下,利用1:5万的DEM,1:25万全国数字化地形图,以及定边、靖边、子长和延川4县1:10万土地利用图与多年水文统计资料,通过叠加分析,对西气东输工程沿线陕西段的洪水风险进行了评估.选取地形、降水、土地利用和社会经济易损性4个因子进行综合分析,分别得到了它们对洪水影响的栅格图,通过对各栅格图的叠加,得到了洪水风险分级图.结果表明,管线西部的定边和靖边,其降水量较低,海拔较高,村镇密度相对较低,洪水风险较低,主要为1级、2级和3级;管线西部的子长和延川县,其地形起伏大,降水量大,植被覆被较低,村镇密度大,洪水风险较大,主要为4级和5级,风险最高的地区集中在秀延河、永坪川、清涧河、东部丘陵沟壑区河谷平原、黄河周围地区及子长县的大部分地区.     

突出重点 全面防御 健全体系 强化管理 社会参与 共同抵御

陈建民局长在2011年全国地震局长会暨党风廉政建设工作会议上指出,科学规划＂十二五＂时期的事业发展,按照＂科学防灾、积极避灾＂的要求,大力开展基础探测工作,加强抗震设防要求与行业抗震设计规范的衔接,强化监管,把防震保安工作纳入新农村建设,全面提升民居的抗震能力,实现有效减灾。     

陕西汉中“98.7”洪涝灾害剖析

对汉中市１９９８年７月上旬的雨情、灾情作了初步统计,分析了致灾原因及经验与教训。     

Foundations of community disaster resilience: well-being,identity, services,and capitals

If community disaster resilience is to mature into a robust and lasting area of research, methodologically facilitated dialogue between empirical observations and theory is necessary. However, methodological and empirical research has outpaced community disaster resilience theory. To address this gap, a theoretical framework called WISC is presented. WISC is named after four constructs of the framework: well-being, identity, services, and capitals. WISC relates the two concepts of community and infrastructure, broadly defined, to the four constructs it is named after. The 4 constructs are respectively defined by 29 variables. The broadest interpretation of WISC is that infrastructure supports and facilitates components of community within human settlements. Infrastructure is represented as combinations of capitals and services; community is represented by connections of identity and well-being. Ultimately, well-being of a community is dependent on that community's collective capital. But these two constructs are mediated by the intervening constructs of identity and services. WISC goes beyond existing frameworks by addressing essential elements of theory building that have been overlooked in the literature, while synthesizing other frameworks and areas of knowledge. WISC provides a powerful foundation for posing and evaluating hypotheses, improving data collection efforts, and, most importantly, enabling critical theory building.     

岩土矿物与疾病

地方病是与地质环境有一定依存性的疾病。它的致病物质除直接来自人类生产和生活制品外,主要源于自然界的大气、水土、岩石中。换言之,人类生存发育与一定地区的水、土和生物化学元素含量有关,当某些元素含量过高,与人需要量不相适应时,就可能导致人发生某种疾病。归纳与地质因素有关的地方病有甲状腺肿(克汀病)、克山病、硒中毒、氟中毒、铜毒、铅毒症、不孕症、食道癌、肝癌、布鲁氏菌病、鼻咽癌、口腔癌、乳腺癌等。     

Social entrepreneurship,co-production,and post-disaster recovery

Post-disaster recovery requires co-production; that is, the inputs of citizens are essential for successful community recovery to occur. Citizens contribute to post-disaster recovery by volunteering, taking on consultative and decision-making roles within their communities, and directly participating in post-disaster reconstruction efforts. Without meaning ful contributions from citizens—the intended beneficiaries—unilateral efforts by public officials and authorities will inevitably fail. This study shows that social entrepreneurs can thus play a critical role in spurring post-disaster recovery by facilitating co-production. It focuses on the role of social entrepreneurs after disasters and centres on one rural village, Giranchaur Namuna Basti in the Sindhupalchowk District of Nepal. Specifically, the study uses the case of the Dhurmus Suntali Foundation's Namuna village project in Giranchaur following the 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck on 25 April 2015 to examine the pivotal role that social entrepreneurs assume in promoting voluntary activities, community engagement, and participation in post-disaster recovery efforts.     

Ethnicity,income, and disaster preparedness in Deep South Texas,United States

This paper examines the influence of a series of demographic and socioeconomic factors on preparedness outcomes for a sample of residents of the Rio Grande Valley in the southernmost part of Texas, United States. Data were collected as part of the regional Pulse of the Valley Study, a general social survey of south Texas residents conducted by the Center for Survey Research at the University of Texas‐Rio Grande Valley. The purpose of this investigation is to understand better the effects of ethnicity and income on preparedness within a region of the US that suffers from widespread poverty and limited infrastructure and is prone to flooding and hurricanes. Taken together, the results suggest that while age, disaster experience, and income are associated with preparedness, the relationship between preparedness and ethnicity remains complex. Furthermore, policymakers should consider initiatives that address the socioeconomic and other issues that shape preparedness for a disaster.     

Immediate behavioural responses to earthquakes in Christchurch,New Zealand,and Hitachi,Japan

This study examines people's immediate responses to earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. Data collected from 257 respondents in Christchurch and 332 respondents in Hitachi revealed notable similarities between the two cities in people's emotional reactions, risk perceptions, and immediate protective actions during the events. Respondents' physical, household, and social contexts were quite similar, but Hitachi residents reported somewhat higher levels of emotional reaction and risk perception than did Christchurch residents. Contrary to the recommendations of emergency officials, the most frequent response of residents in both cities was to freeze. Christchurch residents were more likely than Hitachi residents to drop to the ground and take cover, whereas Hitachi residents were more likely than Christchurch residents to evacuate immediately the building in which they were situated. There were relatively small correlations between immediate behavioural responses and demographic characteristics, earthquake experience, and physical, social, or household context.