危险性重气介质在隧道内泄漏扩散数值模拟

采用CFD软件Fluent对隧道内运载危险性重气(氯气)的槽罐车在行驶过程中发生小孔泄漏导致的氯气扩散进行了数值模拟,得到危险性重气质量浓度随时间和空间的变化规律,分析了泄漏源位置改变产生的不同释放方式以及车体不同行驶速度对危险性重气泄漏扩散的影响。研究结果表明,在相同条件下,车子的速度越大,氯气泄漏产生的危害性越小;泄漏孔位于车体后部比顶部更危险,产生危害更大;泄漏后不同时刻隧道内危险距离及造成损失不同,对泄漏危险距离进行了分析和确定,得出了不同条件下的死亡半径和重伤半径。研究结果可为隧道内有害重气介质泄漏扩散引发的事故的预防和控制提供借鉴。     

重气瞬时泄漏扩散的湍流模型验证

重气瞬时泄漏扩散研究对于保障公共安全等具有重要意义,数值模拟已经成为重要的研究手段之一,但湍流模型对重气扩散模拟的影响还需进一步探讨。本文利用CFD软件对英国健康和安全执行局(HSE)开展的氟利昂12场地扩散实验进行了模拟,分析了在相同边界和初始条件设置下2种不同进口湍流条件和3种不同湍流两方程模型Standard k-ε、Realizable k-ε、RNG k-ε对扩散介质浓度分布的影响,结果表明湍流初始边界对于模拟结果影响不大,而采用Realizablek-ε模型的模拟结果与实际情况更接近。     

重气扩散的数值模拟模型验证

重气泄漏扩散事故是经常发生且危害较大的一种事故形式 ,由于重气的密度大于空气 ,因此重气往往沿地面扩散 ,泄放物质进入人体将引起中毒事故 ,若泄放物质被点燃或引爆将引起大规模的燃烧爆炸事故。本文给出了描述重气扩散过程的数值模拟模型及计算方法 ,并采用本文提出的模型和算法 ,对ThorneyIslandTrial008实验进行了数值模拟 ,模拟结果与实验结果符合较好 ,说明本文提出的模型和算法是适用的。     

重气泄漏扩散实验的计算流体力学(CFD)模拟验证

运用CFD软件Fluent中的标准双方程湍流模型,对重气瞬时和连续泄漏的扩散进行了模拟以预测重气扩散过程中参数的变化,结果表明重气在垂直高度上的浓度随高度增加而减小,对于重气到达一点处的时间而言,瞬时泄漏的预测时间小于实际到达时间,而且浓度减小到零的时间也要先于实际的时间,连续泄漏的情形则相反,模拟过程假设风速和风向不变导致模拟结果没有实际的波动大.通过将模拟的最大摩尔浓度进行误差统计计算表明:Fluent对于连续泄漏源的扩散模拟结果最为准确.CFD模型能准确预测重气扩散过程中气体浓度的变化,可以应用于实际的风险分析和安全评价中.     

重气扩散的数值模拟模型验证

重气泄漏扩散事故是经常发生且危害较大的一种事故形式,由于重气的密度大于空气,理气往往沿地面扩散,泄放物质进入人体将引起中毒事故,若泄放物质被点燃或引爆将引起大规模的燃煤爆炸事故。本文给出了描述重气扩散过程的数值模拟模型及计算方法,并彩用本文提出的模型和算法。对Ｔｈｏｒｎｅｙ Ｉｓｌａｎｄ Ｔｒｉａｌ ００８实验进行数值模拟,模拟结果与实验结果符合较好,说明本文提出模型和算法是适用的。     

大气土壤耦合的埋地燃气管道泄漏扩散数值分析

为了研究埋地燃气管道泄漏燃气在非稳态泄漏条件下的扩散行为,基于燃气管道非稳态泄漏大孔模型,应用CFD分别求解土壤和大气扩散方程,通过丙烷地面扩散通量耦合了土壤和大气环境,进行了泄漏扩散的数值模拟,所得模拟计算结果与地上泄漏扩散数值模拟结果进行了对比分析。研究结果表明:耦合模拟条件下,风速仍是影响丙烷扩散距离和高度的主要因素;温度和相对湿度对丙烷扩散有相对较小的影响;与埋地泄漏相比,不同条件下地上泄漏的扩散距离和扩散高度均有误差,水平扩散距离误差普遍较大,扩散高度个别情况下误差较大;地上泄漏条件下的模拟结果数值偏大,对事故的预测和评估准确性会产生显著影响。     

含硫天然气泄漏扩散事故后果三维数值模拟

含硫天然气泄漏扩散是一个非常复杂的扩散过程,它受复杂地形空间、不同风向、风速等各种条件的影响。为此,采用可行的计算流体动力学(CFD)对这一过程进行了三维数值模拟,根据龙岗001-81井含硫天然气泄漏扩散事故现场,利用ArcGIS软件提取该井周围2 500 m范围内的地形数据建立计算域物理模型,模拟了在多种工况下(不同地形、风向、风速)含硫天然气的扩散规律,对扩散结果进行规律性总结。     

基于稳定风场的埋地天然气管道泄漏数值模拟

针对目前城镇埋地管道天然气泄漏研究模拟工况简单、可信性较低等问题,考虑障碍物对环境风场的影响,利用计算流体力学（CFD）软件建立天然气管道三维泄漏模型,将模拟过程分为环境风场的稳态模拟和管道泄漏扩散的瞬态模拟两步,分析天然气泄漏扩散规律。结果表明:在风场稳态模拟中,建筑物附近风场受干扰明显,上游形成小范围的低速滞留区,下游形成较长的尾迹。在天然气泄漏扩散瞬态模拟中,土壤层天然气受风速影响较小,气体在近地面及贴近建筑物侧积聚,扩散范围随时间逐渐趋于稳定,泄漏扩散达到稳定后表现出土壤层积聚、气云沉降、贴近建筑物积聚、气云扩散局限性的特征。风速主要影响天然气的扩散高度,对水平方向的扩散范围影响较小,风速与天然气扩散高度成反比。     

障碍物对居民户内燃气泄漏扩散特征影响研究

为研究障碍物与泄漏口间距对居民户内天然气泄漏浓度场分布的影响,进而为居民户内燃气事故的安全防控提供技术支撑,本文采用CFD软件对天然气泄漏在障碍物与泄漏点间距不同情况下形成的浓度场、可燃区域进行模拟计算,分析其对燃气扩散特征的影响。结果表明:当厨房内放置障碍物,且障碍物距泄漏口20cm时,爆炸危险区域面积出现速度明显提升,相同时间条件下,障碍物距泄漏口20cm时形成的爆炸危险区域面积最大,比无障碍物组高出26%;相同时间条件下,障碍物距泄漏口2cm与障碍物距泄漏口20cm、无障碍物2种情况相比,形成的爆炸危险区域面积更小。爆炸危险区域差值最大时,比障碍物距泄漏口20cm情况下降低95%,比无障碍物情况下降低90%。     

重气连续泄漏扩散的风洞模拟实验与数值模拟结果对比分析

将重气连续泄漏的风洞模拟实验结果与SLAB重气扩散模型的预测结果进行了对比 ,分析了实验结果与模型预测结果的一致性 ,剖析了重气连续扩散的特点 ,特别是风速对重气连续泄漏扩散的影响 ,提出了在风洞模拟实验及扩散模型方面下一步应做的工作     

CFD-based simulation of dense gas dispersion in presence of obstacles

Quantification of spatial and temporal concentration profiles of vapor clouds resulting from accidental loss of containment of toxic and/or flammable substances is of great importance as correct prediction of spatial and temporal profiles can not only help in designing mitigation/prevention equipment such as gas detection alarms and shutdown procedures but also help decide on modifications that may help prevent any escalation of the event.The most commonly used models - SLAB (Ermak, 1990), HEGADAS (Colenbrander, 1980), DEGADIS (Spicer & Havens, 1989), HGSYSTEM (Witlox & McFarlane, 1994), PHAST (DNV, 2007), ALOHA (EPA & NOAA, 2007), SCIPUFF (Sykes, Parker, Henn, & Chowdhury, 2007), TRACE (SAFER Systems, 2009), etc. - for simulation of dense gas dispersion consider the dispersion over a flat featureless plain and are unable to consider the effect of presence of obstacles in the path of dispersing medium. In this context, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been recognized as a potent tool for realistic estimation of consequence of accidental loss of containment because of its ability to take into account the effect of complex terrain and obstacles present in the path of dispersing fluid.The key to a successful application of CFD in dispersion simulation lies in the accuracy with which the effect of turbulence generated due to the presence of obstacles is assessed. Hence a correct choice of the most appropriate turbulence model is crucial to a successful implementation of CFD in the modeling and simulation of dispersion of toxic and/or flammable substances.In this paper an attempt has been made to employ CFD in the assessment of heavy gas dispersion in presence of obstacles. For this purpose several turbulence models were studied for simulating the experiments conducted earlier by Health and Safety Executive, (HSE) U.K. at Thorney Island, USA (Lees, 2005). From the various experiments done at that time, the findings of Trial 26 have been used by us to see which turbulence model enables the best fit of the CFD simulation with the actual findings. It is found that the realizable k-? model was the most apt and enabled the closest prediction of the actual findings in terms of spatial and temporal concentration profiles. It was also able to capture the phenomenon of gravity slumping associated with dense gas dispersion.     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故演化的突变模型

煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故,从微观上看,是在瓦斯积聚、引火源和氧气浓度3个条件同时具备的情况下发生的,从宏观上看,是在生产活动中存在人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态导致了微观3条件的同时具备。笔者介绍了突变理论的基本原理;在轨迹交叉事故致因理论基础上,分析了瓦斯爆炸事故演化的非线性特征;建立了事故演化的尖点突变模型。并指出:事故演化是一个流变-突变过程,其突变的程度反映了事故的严重度;人的不安全行为是事故发生的主要因素;物的因素决定事故的严重度;安全生产必须建立本质安全型矿井,避免人和物的运动轨迹越过分歧点集。     

基于DEMATEL/ISM的深水井喷风险影响因素研究*

为提高深水井喷事故风险管理水平,提出研究深水井喷风险影响因素的分析方法。从技术、人员、环境和管理4个方面,识别深水井喷事故风险致因因素,建立深水井喷事故风险评价指标体系;运用矩阵决策实验室分析法（DEMATEL）,研究风险因素之间的相互影响关系,计算不同风险因素的中心度和原因度,确定关键风险因素;进一步基于解释结构模型（ISM）划分不同影响因素的层次结构,分析风险因素之间的综合影响关系,建立深水井喷事故风险影响因素模型。结果表明:层级1为近邻致因,可直接导致井喷事故的发生;层级2~7为过渡致因,在风险传递过程中起到桥梁作用,对井喷事故的直接影响较小;而层级8则为本质致因,重视本质致因的改善有利于从根源上降低井喷事故的风险。研究结果可为深水井喷事故风险的预防和控制提供理论依据。     

基于激波理论的新兴煤矿煤与瓦斯突出事故研究

通过分析新兴煤矿煤与瓦斯突出事故,发现在事故中由于煤与瓦斯突出事故诱发了激波的生成,瞬间产生的巨大超压,引起风流逆向,大量瓦斯随逆向风流从突出地点扩散传播至二水平,接触卸载巷电机车架空线所产生的电火花,从而引发瓦斯爆炸事故。提出了突出激波对事故的影响并分析了突出激波的形成及其破坏作用,研究了影响突出激波破坏作用的影响因素,得出参与突出的瓦斯量和瓦斯压力是影响激波强度的关键因素。有助于了解突出后的气流动力演化规律,并为煤与瓦斯突出事故的防灾、救灾措施的制定以及提高矿井的抗灾能力提供了参考。     

CFD simulation study on gas dispersion for risk assessment: A case study of sour gas well blowout

Compared with general blowout, the process of sour gas well blowout is more complex. The exchange of gas state is affected by many factors, and the consequences of the accident are serious. It is difficult to find out the rule of gas dispersion and predict the distribution of toxic gas. Fluent code was used to model the sour gas dispersion in the atmosphere after well blowout. The “12.23” sour gas well blowout, which was happened in Kai County, Chongqing, Sichuan, China, was the research background. The blowout accident model was set up to simulate the real process. Models were built based on real topography. Wind speed and atmospheric stability of the day which the accident happened were set as the operation conditions, and the composition, injection rate, and temperature of the gas at the actual time were set as the boundary conditions of numerical simulation. The analysis of gas dispersion based on simulation results conducted from two aspects, height and dispersion time. A comparison of field data with simulation data demonstrated that CFD technology can be an effective aid to describe the process of sour gas dispersion and can also predict the tendency of gas dispersion and gas distribution. Furthermore, it can provide guidance on design emergency response zone (ERZ).     

煤矿重大瓦斯事故隐患治理工程探讨

结合我国煤矿安全生产实际,在分析典型事故案例的基础上,分别从煤炭企业自身的安全管理、地方政府和煤矿安全监察部门的监管等方面研究了当前煤矿安全生产突出的问题。指出瓦斯异常涌出是目前最难根治的事故隐患;基建或技改矿井和转制矿井最容易发生瓦斯事故;即将关闭的矿井和衰老的矿井普遍存在瓦斯事故隐患;长期所谓的“明星矿井”工作不踏实,瓦斯事故隐患严重;屡次发生重大事故但不吸取教训的矿井,往往长期存在瓦斯事故隐患。笔者认为,我国煤矿重大事故隐患治理工程重点工作主要是深入开展瓦斯异常涌出规律和相关治理措施的研究;取缔非法开采和违法生产活动;认真抓好煤矿隐患排查整改工作;强化生产技术管理,防止超能力、超强度、超定员生产。     

可拓综合评价在燃气系统泄漏事故应急救援中的应用

燃气系统发生泄漏,如不能及时有效进行应急救援,极易引发严重的事故后果,因此,准确确定应急响应等级,进行有针对性的救援工作是控制燃气系统泄漏事故后果严重性的关键。从众多影响因素中,分析并确定了影响燃气系统泄漏事故后果严重性的主要因素,对各因素严重程度进行了等级划分。引入了可拓工程方法,建立了燃气系统泄漏事故后果严重性可拓综合评价模型,阐述了评价步骤和方法。当各影响因素分属不同等级时,根据所建模型能综合确定燃气系统泄漏事故后果严重性等级,依此进行事故应急救援分级响应。该方法能够克服人为评判失误,有利于指导有效事故救援,控制事故影响范围。运用该模型对一事故案例进行了计算,计算结果表明此方法用于确定应急救援响应等级是可行的。     

日本福岛核电站事故对安全科学的启示

日本福岛核电站事故是继三哩岛和切尔诺贝利事故之后又一次世界上的重大核事故。事故的原因和后果虽尚无定论,但在核工业界和学术界已经引起不同层次的种种反思。一方面,从安全科学的角度,分析福岛核事故所暴露出安全科学理论方法存在的诸多问题,主要包括:系统安全分析与评价方法的有效性不足,安全纵深防御体系和机制存在缺陷,安全系统、安全设施设计的理念落后于自然界演变和发展的速度及规律,对小概率事件缺乏深刻认识,安全文化的有效性等。另一方面,通过分析三哩岛和切尔诺贝利事故,表明福岛核事故也将成为安全科学理论方法进一步发展和完善的契机。     

油气火灾爆炸事故评价及防范措施

油气火灾爆炸事故对人类自身和企业所造成的危害日益受到人们的重视 ,因此 ,有必要加强对含有油气的环境进行危险评价和科学管理。笔者应用可能性分布的事故树分析法 ,对引发油气火灾爆炸事故的可能因素进行了定量分析 ,然后对油气火灾爆炸事故进行了评价 ,通过评价对存在的问题提出了相应的防范措施。