Chemometrical analysis of waste water monitoring data from Yantra river basin,Bulgaria

A chemometrical study of waste water data is carried out in order to reveal some new information about the pollution events in Yantra river basin, Bulgaria. Cluster analysis shows that no substantial difference in the behaviour of various sites along the river could be found if all chemical pollutants are simultaneously considered as variables (both for direct and indirect inlet of pollutants). Further, the clustering of the variables indicates a separation between organic and nutrition polluting species. The principal components analysis offered information about the latent factors influencing the data structure. In principle, three to four such latent factors explain over 80% of the total variance of the system. These factors are conditionally named “organic pollution”;, “nutrition pollution”; or “natural”; and are slightly different for the cases of direct and indirect inlet.     

Use of genetic algorithms to select input variables in decision tree models for the prediction of benthic macroinvertebrates

Predicting freshwater organisms based on machine learning is becoming more and more reliable due to the availability of appropriate datasets, advanced modelling techniques and the continuously increasing capacity of computers. A database consisting of measurements collected at 360 sampling sites in non-navigable watercourses in Flanders was applied to predict the absence/presence of benthic macroinvertebrate taxa by means of decision trees. The measured variables were a combination of physical–chemical (temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen concentration, conductivity, total organic carbon, Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phosphorus), structural (granulometric analysis of the sediment, width, depth and flow velocity of the river) and two ecotoxicological variables. The predictive power of decision trees was assessed on the basis of the number of Correctly Classified Instances (CCI). A genetic algorithm was introduced to compare the predictive power of different sets of input variables for the decision trees. The number of input variables was reduced from 15 to 2–8 variables without affecting the predictive power of the decision trees significantly. Furthermore, reducing the number of input variables allowed to ease the identification of general data trends.     

Dynamic environ analysis of compartmental systems: A computational approach

Ecosystems are often modeled as stocks of matter or energy connected by flows. Network environ analysis (NEA) is a set of mathematical methods for using powers of matrices to trace energy and material flows through such models. NEA has revealed several interesting properties of flow–storage networks, including dominance of indirect effects and the tendency for networks to create mutually positive interactions between species. However, the applicability of NEA is greatly limited by the fact that it can only be applied to models at constant steady states. In this paper, we present a new, computationally oriented approach to environ analysis called dynamic environ approximation (DEA). As a test of DEA, we use it to compute compartment throughflow in two implementations of a model of energy flow through an oyster reef ecosystem. We use a newly derived equation to compute model throughflow and compare its output to that of DEA. We find that DEA approximates the exact results given by this equation quite closely – in this particular case, with a mean Euclidean error ranging between 0.0008 and 0.21 – which gives a sense of how closely it reproduces other NEA-related quantities that cannot be exactly computed and discuss how to reduce this error. An application to calculating indirect flows in ecosystems is also discussed and dominance of indirect effects in a nonlinear model is demonstrated.     

Threats to Avifauna on Oceanic Islands

Abstract:  Results of the study by Blackburn et al. (2004 a ) of avifauna on oceanic islands suggest that distance from the mainland and time since European colonization have major influences on species extinctions and that island area is a significant but secondary contributing factor. After augmenting the data of the study on geographical properties for some of the islands they examined, we used a causal analysis approach with structural equation modeling to reexamine their conclusions. In our model geographical properties of islands, such as island area and isolation, were considered constraints on biological factors, such as the number of introduced mammalian predators and existing number of avifauna, that can directly or indirectly influence extinction. Of the variables we tested, island area had the greatest total influence on the threat of extinction due to its direct and indirect effects on the size of island avifauna. Larger islands had both a greater number of threatened bird species and more avifauna, increasing the number of species that could become threatened with extinction. Island isolation also had a significant, positive, and direct effect on threats to island avifauna because islands farther from the mainland had fewer current extant avifauna. Time since European colonization had a significant negative, but relatively weaker, influence on threats compared with the traditional biogeographic factors of island area and distance to the mainland. We also tested the hypothesis that the amount of threat is proportionally lower on islands that have had more extinctions (i.e., there is a "filter effect"). Because the proportion of bird extinctions potentially explained only 2.3% of the variation in the proportion of threatened species on islands, our results did not support this hypothesis. Causal modeling provided a powerful tool for examining threat of extinction patterns of known and hypothesized pathways of influence.     

Competition, predation and coexistence in a three trophic system

Simple ecological models that mostly operate with population densities using continuous variables, explain quite well the behavior of real populations. In this work we propose and discuss the continuous dynamics of a system of three species, which belongs to the well-known family of Lotka–Volterra models. In particular, the proposed model includes direct effects such as predation and competition among species, and indirect effects such as refuge. The model is proposed to explain recent studies about a group of crustacean (amphipods of genus Hyallela) found in all the plain streams and shallow lakes of the American continent. The studied system includes three compartments: algae, a strictly herbivore amphipod and an omnivore (herbivore and carnivore) one. The analysis of the model shows that there are stable extinction equilibria throughout all the parameters’ space. There are also equilibria with stable coexistence of the three species and two interesting binary equilibria: one with stable coexistence of algae and herbivore and other with coexistence between algae and omnivore amphipods. The presence of Allee effect in the algae growth and the existence of refuge for the herbivore amphipod (prey) determine a bottom-up control.     

Linkages between measures of biodiversity and community resilience in Pacific Island agroforests

Designing agroecosystems that are compatible with the conservation of biodiversity is a top conservation priority. However, the social variables that drive native biodiversity conservation in these systems are poorly understood. We devised a new approach to identify social–ecological linkages that affect conservation outcomes in agroecosystems and in social‐ecological systems more broadly. We focused on coastal agroforests in Fiji, which, like agroforests across other small Pacific Islands, are critical to food security, contain much of the country's remaining lowland forests, and have rapidly declining levels of native biodiversity. We tested the relationships among social variables and native tree species richness in agroforests with structural equation models. The models were built with data from ecological and social surveys in 100 agroforests and associated households. The agroforests hosted 95 native tree species of which almost one‐third were endemic. Fifty‐eight percent of farms had at least one species considered threatened at the national or international level. The best‐fit structural equation model (R² = 47.8%) showed that social variables important for community resilience—local ecological knowledge, social network connectivity, and livelihood diversity—had direct and indirect positive effects on native tree species richness. Cash‐crop intensification, a driver of biodiversity loss elsewhere, did not negatively affect native tree richness within parcels. Joining efforts to build community resilience, specifically by increasing livelihood diversity, local ecological knowledge, and social network connectivity, may help conservation agencies conserve the rapidly declining biodiversity in the region.     

Environmental influences on larval duration,growth and magnitude of settlement of a coral reef fish

The influence of environmental variables on the planktonic growth, pelagic larval duration and settlement magnitude was examined for the coral reef surgeonfish Acanthurus chirurgus. Newly settled fish were collected daily from patch reefs in the San Blas Archipelago, Caribbean Panama for 3.5 years. Environmental influences on growth were examined at three different life history stages: from 0 to 6 days, 7 to 25 days and from 26 to 50 days after hatching. Larval growth was correlated, using multiple regression techniques, with a combination of factors including solar radiation, rainfall, and along-shore winds. Depending on the life history stage, these accounted for 13–38% of the variation in growth rates when all the months were included in the analyses. Correlations between environmental variables and growth also varied among seasons and were stronger in the dry than in the wet season. During the dry season solar radiation, rainfall and along-shore winds described 57%, 86% and 74% of the variability in growth between 0 and 6 days, 7 and 25 days and 26 and 50 days, respectively. During the wet season rainfall, along-shore winds and temperature only described 38% of the variability in early growth and 27% of growth just before settlement. No significant model was found to describe growth 7–25 days after hatching during the wet season. Rainfall, solar radiation and along-shore winds were negatively correlated with growth up to 25 days after hatching but positively correlated as larvae approached settlement at a mean age of 52 days. Over 65% of the variability in pelagic larval duration was accounted for by a regression model that included solar radiation and along-shore winds. When data sets from wet and dry seasons were analysed separately, along-shore winds accounted for 67% of the change in larval duration in the dry season, and solar radiation accounted for 23% of the variation in larval duration in the wet season. Only 22% of the variability in settlement intensity could be described by solar radiation and temperature, when all months of the year were included in the analysis. Solar radiation and rainfall were included in a regression model that accounted for 40% of the variation in numbers of fish settling during the dry season. This study suggests that the levels of solar radiation, along-shore winds and rainfall during the early larval life can have important effects on the growth, larval duration and consequently, the settlement magnitude of marine fishes. Results also highlight the need to account for seasonality and ontogeny in studies of environmental influences.Communicated by G.F. Humphrey, Sydney     

Spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton biomass and taxonomic composition around Elephant Island,Antarctica, during the summers of 1990–1993

During the austral summers of 1990–1993, phytoplankton studies were conducted in the vicinity of Elephant Island, Antarctica, to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton biomass and taxonomic composition. There was much intraannual variability, with a trend for increasing biomass from January–February (Leg I) to February–March (Leg II), except in the 1993 studies. There was also a change in phytoplankton composition between the two legs. During 1990–1991 the increase was due mostly to diatoms, during 1992 mostly to an increase of flagellates; during 1993 there was a decrease in total biomass between the two legs, with diatoms decreasing, so that dinoflagellates, which increased slightly in numbers, dominated the biomass during the second leg. There was also much inter-annual variability, with the summers of 1990–1991 having greater biomass and higher proportions of microplanktonic diatoms than that of 1992–1993, which had a higher proportion of flagellates. Cluster analyses revealed the presence of four major phytoplankton assemblages, with varying geographical distributions. The northwestern portion of the grid (Drake Passage waters), was characterized by nanoplanktonic diatoms during 1990–1991 and 1993, but by nanoplanktonic flagellates during 1992. The central area (Drake-Bransfield confluence) was characterized by microplanktonic diatoms in 1990–1991, but by cryptophytes or flagellates in 1992–1993. The south and southeastern portion of the area (Bransfield Strait waters) was characterized mainly by either cryptophytes or other flagellates during all 4 yr. The spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton could not be ascribed specifically to the geographical extent of the different water masses found in the study area, but appears to be due to changing growth conditions in the upper water column as influenced by physical mixing and meteorological conditions, as well as to effects of differential grazing.     

Rearing Pandalus borealis larvae in the laboratory

Larvae of the northern shrimp Pandalus borealis (Krøyer) are pelagic. In the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, the early stages are found in the upper 25-m of the water column in spring and early summer and are expected to experience a range of water temperatures from as low as 0°C to as high at 6°C. Little is known of the impact of water temperature on metabolic requirements of northern shrimp larvae. In this study, routine respiration (VO₂), maximum respiration (electron transport system activity, ETSA) and metabolic scope for growth (MS, ETSA–VO₂) of northern shrimp larvae were measured as a function of temperature (3, 5 and 8°C), developmental stage (I–V at 3°C, I–VII at 5°C and 8°C) and growth rate in dry mass. After logarithmic transformation, all three metabolic variables were linearly related to dry mass. The increase in VO₂ with body mass was faster at 5°C than at 3 or 8°C, whereas with ETSA this increase was slower. As a result, MS increased more slowly with dry mass at 5°C than at 3 and 8°C. However, MS did not limit growth in this study, since it explained only 39% of the variability in growth. All three metabolic variables as well as growth varied together as a function of temperature and ontogeny. Q₁₀ of all three metabolic variables ranged from 1.6 and 2.2 for stages I–V larvae, except for VO₂ at stage I (3.9) and stage III (2.9).     

Introduction,dispersal and potential impacts of the green crab Carcinus maenas in San Francisco Bay,California

The North Atlantic portunid crab Carcinus maenas (Linnaeus, 1758) has invaded the North Pacific Ocean following more than two centuries of global dispersal due to human activities. C. maenas was first collected in San Francisco Bay, California, in 1989–1990, where its distribution and prey selectivity were investigated in 1992–1994. It has become abundant in shallow, warm lagoons (which as favorable and retentive microhabitats may have served as invasion incubators) and spread throughout the north, central and south bays. It may have arrived in ballast water, on fouled ships, amongst algae with imported live bait or lobsters, or by intentional release; genetic comparisons of the Bay population with possible source populations may aid in defining the transport mechanism. C. maenas' eurytopic nature, its high breeding potential, and its diet and feeding behavior suggest the potential for extensive ecosystem alterations through predator-prey interactions, competition, disturbance, and indirect effects. Although both negative economic impacts through reduction or disruption of fisheries and positive impacts of providing bait and human-food fisheries have been documented in a few regions, the potential economic impacts in San Francisco Bay remain largely unknown.     

Herbivores and edaphic factors constrain the realized niche of a native plant

Biotic interactions, such as competition and herbivory, can limit plant species ranges to a subset of edaphically suitable habitats, termed the realized niche. Here we explored the role that herbivores play in restricting the niche of serpentine ecotypes of the native California annual Collinsia sparsiflora. We planted seeds from four populations into a range of natural field environments that varied in the presence/absence of naturally occurring C. sparsiflora and in predicted suitability for growth and survival of the serpentine ecotype of C. sparsiflora. Path analysis was then used to model the direct and herbivore-mediated indirect effects of environmental variables on the survival of C. sparsiflora serpentine ecotypes. We found that C. sparsiflora received more herbivory when planted into areas where serpentine ecotypes of C. sparsiflora were not predicted to persist, and that increased herbivory was associated with decreased survival, suggesting that herbivores may limit the distribution of C. sparsiflora serpentine ecotypes. Additionally, we demonstrated that edaphic environmental variables impacted the survival of C. sparsiflora serpentine ecotypes both directly and indirectly, by altering interactions with herbivores. These indirect effects were probably trait-mediated and probably occurred because edaphic factors may influence plant traits that, in turn, alter attractiveness to herbivores. Although the magnitude of direct effects exceeded the magnitude of indirect effects, many strong herbivore-mediated indirect effects were detected. Thus, interactions between the abiotic environment and insect herbivory contributed to restricting the niche of C. sparsiflora serpentine ecotypes to a subset of available habitat.     

Representing general theoretical concepts in structural equation models: the role of composite variables

Structural equation modeling (SEM) holds the promise of providing natural scientists the capacity to evaluate complex multivariate hypotheses about ecological systems. Building on its predecessors, path analysis and factor analysis, SEM allows for the incorporation of both observed and unobserved (latent) variables into theoretically-based probabilistic models. In this paper we discuss the interface between theory and data in SEM and the use of an additional variable type, the composite. In simple terms, composite variables specify the influences of collections of other variables and can be helpful in modeling heterogeneous concepts of the sort commonly of interest to ecologists. While long recognized as a potentially important element of SEM, composite variables have received very limited use, in part because of a lack of theoretical consideration, but also because of difficulties that arise in parameter estimation when using conventional solution procedures. In this paper we present a framework for discussing composites and demonstrate how the use of partially-reduced-form models can help to overcome some of the parameter estimation and evaluation problems associated with models containing composites. Diagnostic procedures for evaluating the most appropriate and effective use of composites are illustrated with an example from the ecological literature. It is argued that an ability to incorporate composite variables into structural equation models may be particularly valuable in the study of natural systems, where concepts are frequently multifaceted and the influence of suites of variables are often of interest.     

东北过伐林灌木层物种多样性与林分因子的典型相关分析

研究林分特征尤其是经营上可以控制的因子对生物多样性的影响，将有助于制定合理的经营措施来维持和保护生物多样性，本文作者以我国东北过伐林区3种典型天然林类型为对象，采用典型相关分析方法，研究影响灌木层物种多样性的主要因子。结果表明：影响灌木层物种多样性的主要因子包括土壤含水率，树种多样性和林分密度；灌木层多样性组的变异被林分组第一典型变量解释的比例为68.32%,仍有31.68%的变异不能得到解释。     

Sensitivity to biologically relevant odours may exceed the sum of component thresholds

Summary In four fruit-eating bats sniff-rate analysis revealed the threshold value for natural banana odour to be 1 × 10^–4 vol% of head-space while the threshold values for its major components were found to be 3–6 orders of magnitude higher; even the total of molecules present at the threshold dilution of banana odour was 2 orders of magnitude below the lowest threshold values obtained for single components. Thus, the responsiveness of the bats to threshold concentration of natural banana odour is discussed as an example of synergism of stimuli.     

Spatial and temporal variability in somatic growth of green sea turtles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Chelonia mydas</Emphasis>) resident in the Hawaiian Archipelago

The somatic growth dynamics of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) resident in five separate foraging grounds within the Hawaiian Archipelago were assessed using a robust non-parametric regression modelling approach. The foraging grounds range from coral reef habitats at the north-western end of the archipelago, to coastal habitats around the main islands at the south-eastern end of the archipelago. Pelagic juveniles recruit to these neritic foraging grounds from ca. 35 cm SCL or 5 kg (~6 years of age), but grow at foraging-ground-specific rates, which results in quite different size- and age-specific growth rate functions. Growth rates were estimated for the five populations as change in straight carapace length (cm SCL year^–1) and, for two of the populations, also as change in body mass (kg year^–1). Expected growth rates varied from ca. 0–2.5 cm SCL year^–1, depending on the foraging-ground population, which is indicative of slow growth and decades to sexual maturity, since expected size of first-time nesters is 80 cm SCL. The expected size-specific growth rate functions for four populations sampled in the south-eastern archipelago displayed a non-monotonic function, with an immature growth spurt at ca. 50–53 cm SCL (~18–23 kg) or ca. 13–19 years of age. The growth spurt for the Midway atoll population in the north-western archipelago occurs at a much larger size (ca. 65 cm SCL or 36 kg), because of slower immature growth rates that might be due to a limited food stock and cooler sea surface temperature. Expected age-at-maturity was estimated to be ca. 35–40 years for the four populations sampled at the south-eastern end of the archipelago, but it might well be >50 years for the Midway population. The Hawaiian stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, with no differences in mtDNA stock composition between foraging-ground populations, so that the geographic variability in somatic growth rates within the archipelago is more likely due to local environmental factors rather than genetic factors. Significant temporal variability was also evident, with expected growth rates declining over the last 10–20 years, while green turtle abundance within the archipelago has increased significantly since the mid-1970s. This inverse relationship between somatic growth rates and population abundance suggests a density-dependent effect on somatic growth dynamics that has also been reported recently for a Caribbean green turtle stock. The Hawaiian green turtle stock is characterised by slow growth rates displaying significant spatial and temporal variation and an immature growth spurt. This is consistent with similar findings for a Great Barrier Reef green turtle stock that also comprises many foraging-ground populations spanning a wide geographic range.Communicated by P.W. Sammarco, Chauvin     

Herbivory reduces plant interactions with above- and belowground antagonists and mutualists

Herbivores affect plants through direct effects, such as tissue damage, and through indirect effects that alter species interactions. Interactions may be positive or negative, so indirect effects have the potential to enhance or lessen the net impacts of herbivores. Despite the ubiquity of these interactions, the indirect pathways are considerably less understood than the direct effects of herbivores, and multiple indirect pathways are rarely studied simultaneously. We placed herbivore effects in a comprehensive community context by studying how herbivory influences plant interactions with antagonists and mutualists both aboveground and belowground. We manipulated early-season aboveground herbivore damage to Cucumis sativus (cucumber, Cucurbitaceae) and measured interactions with subsequent aboveground herbivores, root-feeding herbivores, pollinators, and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). We quantified plant growth and reproduction and used an enhanced pollination treatment to determine if plants were pollen limited. Increased herbivory reduced interactions with both antagonists and mutualists. Plants with high levels of early herbivory were significantly less likely to suffer leaf damage later in the summer and tended to be less attacked by root herbivores. Herbivory also reduced pollinator visitation, likely due to fewer and smaller flowers, and reduced AMF colonization. The net effect of herbivory on plant growth and reproduction was strongly negative, but lower fruit and seed production were not due to reduced pollinator visits, because reproduction was not pollen limited. Although herbivores influenced interactions between plants and other organisms, these effects appear to be weaker than the direct negative effects of early-season tissue loss.     

Dynamics and physiology of saxitoxin production by the dinoflagellatesAlexandrium spp.

Toxin content (fmol cell^–1) and a suite of elemental and macromolecular variables were measured in batch cultures of the dinoflagellatesAlexandrium fundyense, A. tamarense andAlexandrium sp. from the southern New England region, USA. A different perspective was provided by semicontinuous cultures which revealed sustained, steady-state physiological adaptations by cells to N and P limitation. Two types of variability were investigated. In batch culture, changes in nutrient availability with time caused growth stage variability in toxin content, which often peaked in mid-exponential growth. A second type of variability that could be superimposed on growth stage differences is best exemplified by the high toxin content of cells grown at suboptimal temperatures. Calculations of the net rate of toxin production (R _tox ; fmol cell^–1 d^–1) for these different culture treatments and modes made it possible to separate the dynamics of toxin production from cell division. Over a wide range of growth rates, cells produced toxin at rates approximating those needed to replace losses to daughter cells during division. The exception to this direct proportionality was with P limitation, which was associated with a dramatic increase in the rate of toxin production as cells stopped dividing due to nutrient limitation in batch culture. Growth stage variability in batch culture thus reflects small imbalances (generally within a factor of two) between the specific rates of toxin production and cell division. N limitation and CO₂ depletion both affect pathways involved in toxin synthesis before those needed for cell division; P limitation does the opposite. The patterns of toxin accumulation were the same as for major cellular metabolites or elemental pools. The highest rates of toxin production appear to result from an increased availability of arginine (Arg) within the cell, due to either a lack of competition for this amino acid from pathways involved in cell division or to increased de novo synthesis. There were no significant changes in toxin content with either acclimated growth at elevated salinity, or with short term increases or decreases of salinity. These results demonstrate that toxin production is a complex process which, under some conditions, is closely coupled to growth rate; under other conditions, these processes are completely uncoupled. Explanations for the observed variability probably relate to pool sizes of important metabolites and to the differential response of key biochemical reactions to these pool sizes and to environmental conditions.