Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project

The management of flash flood hazards and risks is a critical component of public safety and quality of life. Flash-floods develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems are not able to monitor for rainfall and river discharge. Consequently, the atmospheric and hydrological generating mechanisms of flash-floods are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain forecasts of these events. The objective of the HYDRATE project has been to improve the scientific basis of flash flood forecasting by advancing and harmonising a European-wide innovative flash flood observation strategy and developing a coherent set of technologies and tools for effective early warning systems. To this end, the project included actions on the organization of the existing flash flood data patrimony across Europe. The final aim of HYDRATE was to enhance the capability of flash flood forecasting in ungauged basins by exploiting the extended availability of flash flood data and the improved process understanding. This paper provides a review of the work conducted in HYDRATE with a special emphasis on how this body of research can contribute to guide the policy-life cycle concerning flash flood risk management.     

数字化地震前兆台站的防雷措施

雷电灾害是气象自然灾害的一个组成部分.地震前兆台站的防雷问题是一个十分重要的问题,然而防雷技术目前在国际上尚未过关.随着数字化改造项目的实施,地震台站对防雷技术的要求越来越高.本文分析了雷电的形成、雷击的种类和雷电对数字化前兆地震台站的危害,介绍了几种针对数字化前兆台站的防雷措施,这些措施在实际的地震监测中取得了较好的效果,值得借鉴推广.     

Experimental floods: A new era for Spanish and Mediterranean rivers?

The provision of human-designed floods in regulated rivers is still an incipient worldwide practice. However, these floods have already been shown to have relevant effects on the ecogeomorphic integrity of rivers altered by flow regulation. In Spain, experimental floods were legally established in 2008 and were stipulated in two subsequent Basin Management Plans as compulsory practice for improving the functioning of strategic river reaches. Since that time, a number of flooding events have been carried out in rivers of Mediterranean condition. This paper reviews the main consequences of experimental flood releases in three Spanish river sites downstream of major hydraulic infrastructures. In each case, the ecologic and geomorphic effects of the releases are analysed in parallel with their causes and consequences, thereby providing a detailed understanding of the dynamics of each scenario. The Spanish examples and the lessons learned from them are contrasted with examples of experimental floods from other countries (U.S.A., Switzerland, Australia). Lastly, recommendations are proposed to improve the implementation of future experimental floods in Spain and other Mediterranean countries.     

整合实验室仪器的探索与实践——室外气象监测站建设

整合环境学院的仪器设备,建立室外气象监测站。针对设备选型和要素选择、站址选择、防雷措施等问题,提出解决办法。通过处理数据传输入库系统,建立室外气象参数的数据库,为实验教学中环境监测和空调系统设计提供具体、真实、可靠的数据。     

Policy options to support climate-induced migration: insights from disaster relief in China

Attention to climate-induced migration has grown considerably in recent years, reinforced by high frequency of droughts, storms and flooding. Focusing on migrations induced by flash floods in Zhouqu and droughts in central Ningxia, China this study illustrates key factors in the process of policy options to support climate-induced migration. The study is based on stakeholder interviews and secondary data processing. The findings show that integrating sudden and slow-onset hazards, combining top-down and bottom-up methodology and encouraging private sectors to establish Public-Private Partnership, are the main policy options from disaster relief perspective. Otherwise, two prospective transformations are proposed in policy options, transferring from re-active migration to pro-active migration, and from move & stay to hope & development in the aspect of migrants’ livelihood improvement.     

牧户对气候变化的感知与适应——以内蒙古四子王旗查干补力格苏木为例

通过在内蒙古自治区四子王旗查干补力格苏木的实地调查,并对四子王旗气象数据与调研得到的牧户感知数据进行对比分析,结果表明：牧民对气温变化的感知较对降水变化的感知准确度高,对风沙的感知与实际差距较大。在灾害造成的影响感知方面,牧户对干旱造成的影响感知最为深刻。牧户为适应气候变化已自主采取了多种应对措施,在实地调研中识别出至少22 种自主适应措施,采用较多的适应措施是多储备草料、减少牲畜存栏、建暖棚、借款和不让后代养羊,其中最重要的适应措施是多储备草料。自主适应行为的评估和筛选结果显示：多储备草料、建暖棚、减少牲畜存栏、引进新品种、借贷款、外出打工是牧民认为较好的自主适应措施。与之相配套的政策需求为：贷款支持、青贮窖补贴、暖棚补贴、更精确的天气预报和病虫害预报、牧业保险、新品种的技术培训、新品种的市场对接、职业技能培训、完善的社会保障体系等。这些政策可以增强牧民适应气候变化的能力,同时减缓牧民生计脆弱性。     

Assessing river flood risk and adaptation in Europe—review of projections for the future

Flood damages have exhibited a rapid upward trend, both globally and in Europe, faster than population and economic growth. Hence, vigorous attempts of attribution of changes have been made. Flood risk and vulnerability tend to change over many areas, due to a range of climatic and nonclimatic impacts whose relative importance is site-specific. Flooding is a complex phenomenon and there are several generating mechanisms, among others intense and/or long-lasting precipitation, snowmelt, ice jam. Projected climate-driven changes in future flood frequency are complex, depending on the generating mechanism, e.g., increasing flood magnitudes where floods result of heavy rainfall and possibly decreasing magnitudes where floods are generated by spring snowmelt. Climate change is likely to cause an increase of the risk of riverine flooding across much of Europe. Projections of flood hazard in Europe based on climatic and hydrological models, reviewed in this paper, illustrate possible changes of recurrence of a 100-year flood (with probability of exceedance being 1-in-100 years) in Europe. What used to be a 100-year flood in the control period is projected to become either more frequent or less frequent in the future time horizon of concern. For a large part of the continent, large flooding is projected to become more commonplace in future, warmer climate. Due to the large uncertainty of climate projections, it is currently not possible to devise a scientifically-sound procedure for redefining design floods (e.g. 100-year flood) in order to adjust flood defenses. For the time being, we recommend to adjust design floods using a “climate change factor” approach.     

荥阳地震台背景干扰及处理

利用荥阳地震台形变资料,对自然因素、人为影响、停电以及其他仪器故障等各种干扰事件进行了总结,分析了其影响幅度及机理,为利用形变资料识别并消除干扰、准确捕捉地震短临异常提供了可借鉴的依据。     

太湖流域暴雨时空特征研究

暴雨灾害是一种主要的气象灾害,论文选择经济发达的太湖流域为研究区域,运用小波、线性趋势模拟、P-Ⅲ型概率密度函数、Mann-Kendall法等方法对太湖流域暴雨的时空变化特征及趋势进行分析研究。研究结果显示:①太湖流域55 a平均年暴雨日数有2.9个,年际变化幅度比较剧烈。1991—2000年是暴雨日数多发期, 1959、1968和1978年暴雨日数较少,呈弱"倒U"型。暴雨频次平均值的空间分布呈现南多北少、西多东少的分布格局。暴雨量与暴雨日数的空间分布并不一致,出现北多南少、东多西少的分布。②研究显示P-Ⅲ曲线方法在区域降水极值的研究方面具有较好的效果,太湖流域年最大日降水量趋势呈现"U"型,与太湖流域年暴雨日数的演变特征呈现不一致的趋势。55 a来,太湖地区发生的最大暴雨在250 mm内,即200 a一遇的暴雨洪水为该地区暴雨灾害的近代极值。③典型站点年暴雨降水量均有不同程度的增加趋势,以太湖中部以南的三个站点东山、杭州、慈溪最为显著,各点均存在不同程度的突变,但突变时间存在差异。④太湖流域夏季暴雨呈现2 a、9 a、13 a、25 a等多尺度的周期变化,各波动周期稳定性和显著性不同。     

地闪资料反演山东雷暴天气降水的适用性分析

本文利用山东雷暴天气中地面定位系统地闪及气象观测站降水资料,分析该地区雷电时空演变特征及其与降水之间的关系.结果表明:山地及丘陵地区发生的地闪多于平原地区,危害较强的正地闪主要分布于海拔相对较高的山东西南及中南部地区.地闪与降水在空间和时间上都有着较好的对应性;特别是在鲁西南和鲁西北平原地区地闪与降水有着较好的相关性,在这些区域可以利用地闪资料反演雷暴天气中的降水.     

利用EP/TOMS遥感资料分析我国上空沙尘天气过程

利用EP/TOMS卫星遥感资料,并结合地面气象观测记录,分析了影响我国典型沙尘暴天气的发生、发展和传输过程.定义了使用EP/TOMS气溶胶指数定量描述沙尘天气强度的指标体系,并对1998年3-4月间发生的沙尘天气的强度及其演变进行了详细的分析.结果表明:利用EP/TOMS 气溶胶指数并结合气象观测资料,可以对大规模的沙尘天气进行及时判别、监视,并预报影响范围及传输路径;同时,利用TOMS气溶胶指数建立起来的指标体系可以半定量化地描述沙尘暴天气的强度和影响范围.      

浙西南丘陵山区沟谷泥石流降雨特征分析

浙西南丘陵山区沟谷泥石流均为暴雨型泥石流,降水是诱发泥石流灾害的主要因素。通过对暴雨与泥石流发生的时间关系分析,认为泥石流发生主要有两种类型:一是当日降雨量直接激发泥石流,另一种是泥石流发生在有一定前期降雨的积累,并利用雨量站观测资料对这两种类型泥石流发生时的降雨特征进行了详细分析,以为泥石流灾害的防治提供依据。     

西南喀斯特地区降雨集中度及其变化特征分析-以乌江流域中上游为例

本文采用乌江流域中上游地区1951～2008年的逐日降雨资料,分析26个气象站点年雨量、连续3日、5日、7日无雨日次数、最大日降雨统计特征,以及日降雨集中度指数CI,并利用非参数Mann-Kendall检验分析日降雨集中程度以及降雨统计特征变化趋势。结果表明,近58年以来,虽然该地区年雨量变化趋势不明显,但各站日降水量集中度呈现加大的趋势,且77%站点增加趋势显著。研究也表明,连续3日、5日、7日无雨日次数以及最大日降雨量也呈现增加趋势,日降水量集中度与最大日雨量相关程度高,说明该地区暴雨和干旱发生频率增加趋势明显。     

中国西部及周边区域电离层暴的统计特性

利用中国西部及周边9个电离层观测台站的历史数据,修正了统计研究中电离层暴事件的提取方式,在此基础上分析了区域内电离层暴的统计规律.研究表明,区域内以正暴为主,大暴主要发生在喷泉效应起作用的区域;多数台站冬季多正暴,夏季多负暴,春秋季二者相当,但在个别台站有较大差异;暴的起始时间主要分布于日落后,且在不同纬度略有差别.     

大型浮顶储油罐雷击事故分析及防范对策

对几起典型的大型浮顶储油罐雷击事故进行了分析,总结了这些事故存在的共性问题。通过开展大型浮顶储油罐的直击雷及雷电感应模拟试验,找出大型浮顶储油罐导电片等现有防雷设施在设计和安装中存在的问题,提出了取消二次密封装置上的导电片、安装等电位连接装置等技术措施,以有效减少大型浮顶储油罐火灾事故的发生。     

A monitor for continuous measurement of temperature,pH, and conductance of wet precipitation: Preliminary results from the adirondack mountains,New York

This report describes a continuous wet-only precipitation monitor designed by the U.S. Geological Survey to record variations in rainfall temperature, pH, and specific conductance at 1-min intervals over the course of storms. Initial sampling in the Adirondack Mouintains showed that rainfall acidity varied over the course of summer storms, with low initial pH values increasing as storm intensity increased.     

新疆叶尔羌河突发性洪水初步研究

叶尔羌河发源于昆仑山和喀喇昆仑山区,是新疆第三大河。近30年,每2—3年发生一次突发性洪水,给下游人民造成很大灾难。 本文阐述了该洪水的特性,时空分布、演进情势及峰量变化,加之分析气象资料、地质地貌条件,首次提出突发性洪水成因于冰川阻塞湖泄洪,其策源地位于克勒青河上游的克亚吉尔特索湖和特拉木坎力湖。随着冰川的衰退,阻塞湖将逐渐缩小。     

1960—2013年北京旱涝变化特征及其影响因素分析

基于1960—2013年北京及其周边34个气象站点逐日降水数据,利用标准化降水指数(SPI),辅以小波分析、滑动平均和相关分析等气候诊断方法,论文分析了近54 a北京旱涝变化特征,探讨了城市化和大气环流异常与旱涝变化的关系。结果表明:1近54 a北京轻微旱涝事件呈减少趋势,极端旱涝事件逐渐增多;2在年代变化上,20世纪60—80年代SPI值呈稳定波动,80年代中后期SPI值呈下降趋势,涝灾逐渐减少,旱灾逐渐增多,1999—2008年形成10 a连旱的降水偏少期;3快速城市化对北京旱涝变化影响明显,但是并未改变旱涝宏观变化趋势;4 ENSO与北京旱涝变化关系存在不稳定性,El Nio事件并非严格对应旱灾,La Nia事件并非严格对应涝灾;副热带高压位置和东亚夏季风强弱与北京旱涝变化关系相对稳定。当副热带高压明显北移、东亚夏季风偏强时,北京多发生干旱;反之,则北京明显偏涝。     

The chemical composition of aerosols settling in Israel following dust storms

The chemical composition of settling particles from 23 heavy dust storms in Israel has been determined. These storms occurred over a 20-year period in Jerusalem and Ramat Hasharon, north of Tel Aviv. Meteorological conditions during the storms were examined and the storms classified according to their trajectories into two types: (a) North African; and (b) Arabian Desert. The North African type is by far the most common.The composition of the dust storms is monotonic. Additional interpretation of the chemical analyses using Enrichment Factors reveals the following points. (1) The settling particles are relatively enriched in Ca probably from the local terrain and in Cl derived from the Mediterranean Sea. They are also enriched in S for unexplained reasons. Other elements enriched include Pb and Br and these are presumably due to contamination from the use of leaded petrol. (2) Comparison of the two types of dust storms shows that the Arabian Desert type contains less Cl and U.The composition of an Israel Background Reference Standard is suggested for use in future ecological studies of settling particles in Israel.     

山地旅游景区雷电灾害风险评估研究

本文通过分析山地旅游景区的气象、环境、地理特征及近年来山地旅游景区雷电灾害特点,总结山地旅游景区雷电灾害损失类型,创建景区雷电灾害风险评估体系,并通过对山地旅游景区整体人员生命损失风险评估方法的具体描述介绍山地旅游景区雷电灾害风险评估的基本方法及注意要素。