New policies to deal with climate change and other drivers impacting on resilience to flooding in urban areas: the CORFU approach

In the context of urban flood management, resilience is equal to resisting, recovering, reflecting and responding. The variety of causes of flooding and their consequences underpin the need for increased and internationally coordinated efforts to enhance technologies and policies for dealing with floods. This paper addresses this issue and presents some novel research ideas related to resilience to flooding in urban areas, which are under development within the EU FP7 project ‘Collaborative research on flood resilience in urban areas’ (CORFU). The approach adopted in this project aims to quantify the cost-effectiveness of resilience measures and integrative and adaptable flood management plans for different scenarios of relevant drivers: urban development, socio-economic trends and climate changes. It is believed that the way in which the different models are being put together, combined with the variability of conditions in case study areas in Asia and in Europe, will ultimately enable more scientifically sound policies for the management of the consequences of urban flooding.     

Constructing risks – Internalisation of flood risks in the flood risk management plan

Traditional flood protection methods have focused efforts on different measures to keep water out of floodplains. However, the European Flood Directive challenges this paradigm (Hartmann and Driessen, 2013). Accordingly, flood risk management plans should incorporate measures brought about by collaboration with local governments to develop and implement these measures (Johann and Leismann, 2014). One of the challenges of these plans is getting and keeping stakeholders involved in the processes related to flood risk management. This research shows that that this challenge revolves around how flood risks are socially constructed.Therefore it is essential to understand and explain the risk perception of stakeholders. System Theory by Luhmann provides the analytical distinction between ‘internal risk’ and ‘external danger’ as key concepts to understand whether or not stakeholders will take action (Luhmann, 1993). While perceptions of ‘external danger’ will not lead to action, perceptions of ‘internal risk’ urge stakeholders to take action.The cases of the rivers Lippe and Emscher in the dense populated region between Duisburg and Dortmund in Germany illustrate how these theoretical concepts materialise in practice. This contribution shows how flood risks are socially constructed and how this construction is influenced by the European flood risk management plan. While clearing up some of the difficulties from the Flood Directive, the research shows a gap between the Flood Directive and the current theory and planning practice, which needs to be addressed in further research.     

FloodProBE: technologies for improved safety of the built environment in relation to flood events

The FloodProBE project started as a FP7 research project in November 2009.Floods, together with wind related storms, are considered the major natural hazard in the EU in terms of risk to people and assets. In order to adapt urban areas (in river and coastal zones) to prevent flooding or to be better prepared for floods, decision makers need to determine how to upgrade flood defences and increasing flood resilience of protected buildings and critical infrastructure (power supplies, communications, water, transport, etc.) and assess the expected risk reduction from these measures.The aim of the FloodProBE-project is to improve knowledge on flood resilience and flood protection performance for balancing investments in flood risk management in urban areas. To this end, technologies, methods and tools for assessment purposes and for the adaptation of new and existing buildings and critical infrastructure are developed, tested and disseminated.Three priority areas are addressed by FloodProBE. These are: (i) vulnerability of critical infrastructure and high-density value assets including direct and indirect damage, (ii) the assessment and reliability of urban flood defences including the use of geophysical methods and remote sensing techniques and (iii) concepts and technologies for upgrading weak links in flood defences as well as construction technologies for flood proofing buildings and infrastructure networks to increase the flood resilience of the urban system.The primary impact of FloodProBE in advancing knowledge in these areas is an increase in the cost-effectiveness (i.e. performance) of new and existing flood protection structures and flood resilience measures.     

Analyzing flood risk and related impacts to urban communities in central Vietnam

This study aims at understanding flood risks and their impact on a community, in order to enhance communities’ resilience and adaptive capacity to these threats. It also investigates the possibility of looking at and handling risk from a resilience point of view. Therefore, while a conventional risk management process is employed in this study, social, physical, economic, and institutional dimensions of resilience are also included in order to grasp the extent of risks and the ways in which communities face, cope with, and recover from flooding. Findings showed that there was no significant difference in the perception of flood risk among household heads educated up to secondary school level, suggesting that they believe floods are purely natural events. Those with a higher level of education (high school and above) (82.7 % of respondents) were aware that flood disasters are the result of hazard and vulnerability combined. In addition, social dynamics were apparently strengthened by such disasters, which resulted in cohesion and mutual help following floods in some wards. Also, households with more sources of income and more savings appear to recover faster than others after a flooding event. With regard to governance and networks, greater efforts have to be made by local institutions to ensure basic functioning during and after disaster events and to invest more into risk reduction activities. However, further studies need to be conducted to clarify the understanding of the impact flood disasters have on the environment and community lives and livelihoods in general, as traditional coping strategies, although still practical, no longer suffice in the face of changes in climate and environment.     

A framework for evaluating flood risk governance

Calls to strengthen flood risk governance are echoed across Europe amidst a growing consensus that floods will increase in the future. Accompanying the pursuit of societal resilience, other normative agendas relating legitimacy (e.g. accountability and public participation), and resource efficiency, have become attached to discussions concerning flood risk governance. Whilst these represent goals against which ‘success’ is socially and politically judged, lacking from the literature is a coherent framework to operationalise these concepts and evaluate the degree to which these are achieved. Drawing from cross-disciplinary and cross-country research conducted within the EU project STAR-FLOOD, this paper presents a framework for evaluating the extent to which flood risk governance arrangements support societal resilience, and demonstrate efficiency and legitimacy. Through empirical research in England, this paper critically reflects on the value of this approach in terms of identifying entry points to strengthen governance in the pursuit of these goals.     

基于洪涝风险分析的纽约市城市绿地规划设计及其对中国的启示

1968年美国开始推行洪涝保险计划,不断完善对洪涝风险的研究,并逐步形成了一套相对完善的洪泛区管理体系,而洪涝风险分析在洪涝保险、城市规划、土地开发、应急管理等领域广泛应用。纽约市在经历了多次飓风侵害,尤其是2012年飓风桑迪（Sandy）之后,意识到城市绿地在极端暴雨事件时对雨洪调蓄的重要作用,经过持续的研究实践,提出了基于洪涝风险分析的城市绿地规划设计要求。基于总结美国纽约市在飓风桑迪影响下对洪涝风险图的调整,及其对城市绿地规划设计相关要求,提出其对我国洪涝风险管控及城市绿地规划设计的启示。     

Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change

Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising flood risk management strategies under climate change. First, uncertainty about the changes in return periods of hydro-meteorological extremes is introduced by probability-weighted climate scenarios. Second, the analysis is extended by learning about climate change impacts. Learning occurs upon the probabilistic arrival of information. We distinguish between learning from scientific progress, from statistical evidence and from flood disasters. These probabilistic extensions can be used to analyse and compare the economic efficiency and flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. We offer a critical discussion of the scope of such extensions and options for increasing flexibility. We find that uncertainty reduction from scientific progress may reduce initial investments, while other types of learning may increase initial investments. This requires analysing effects of different types of learning. We also find that probabilistic information about climate change impacts and learning is imprecise. We conclude that risk-based CBA with learning improves the flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. However, CBA provides subjective estimates of expected outcomes and reflects different decision-maker preferences than those captured in robustness analyses. We therefore advocate robustness analysis in addition to, or combined with, cost-benefit analysis to support local investment decisions on flood risk reduction and global strategies on allocation of adaptation funds for flood risk management.     

Improving flood risk analysis for effectively supporting the implementation of flood risk management plans: The case study of “Serio” Valley

The EU Flood Directive 2007/60 requires the assessment and delineation of flood risk maps. The latter should provide the required knowledge for the development of flood risk management plans (FRMPs), that should deal with all features of risk management: e.g. preparation, protection and prevention, comprising also the phase of the flood forecasting and warning systems, in addition to the emergency management. The risk maps, delineated through the expert-drive qualitative (EDQ) approach currently adopted in several European countries, such as Italy, fail to represent the information base that needed by stakeholders for selecting the suitable objectives and designing the appropriate mitigation actions for flood risk management. In the EDQ approach, the flood hazard and the potential damage degree maps are combined by means of a matrix to obtain a qualitative flood risk map. However, the performance of the risk matrix is not usually rigorous validated and, therefore, presents limits, such as subjective and not careful explained interpretation of rating and poor resolution, (due to range compression), that can produce errors in comparative ranking of risk areas. In this context, this paper proposes the FloodRisk approach that aims to improve the efficacy of flood risk map overcoming the limits of EDQ approach in supplying the knowledge base that allow to analyze costs and benefits of potential mitigation measures. However, the proposed approach is also able to involve the citizens in the flood management process, enhancing their awareness. An application of FloodRisk procedure is showed on a pilot case in “Serio” Valley, (North Italy), and its strengths and limits, in terms of additional efforts required in its application compared with EDQ procedure, have been discussed focusing on the efficacy of the outcomes provided for the fulfillment of FRMPs. The results have demonstrated the ability of FloodRisk, respect to EDQ approach, to distinguish successfully different levels of vulnerability of exposure elements, thanks to the use of asset value and depth-damage curves, that allows a suitably evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. In this light, a successfully application of a cost-benefit analysis of FloodRisk approach on a portfolio of alternative mitigation actions, (i.e. structural and non-structural measurements), has been demonstrated on the proposed study case. However, FloodRisk requires additional information, e.g. water depths assessment and assets values, and it needs a proper analysis and communication of the uncertainty in its results. Although they still exist limitations that impede, at present, the FloodRisk application without an adequate understanding and a critical consideration of the hazard, exposure and vulnerability characteristics of the study area, considerations are supplied on how the utilization of this approach can be maximized in the light of the next flood risk maps revision due by December 2019.     

Operationalizing urban resilience through a framework for adaptive co-management and design: Five experiments in urban planning practice and policy

The emergent discourse on social-ecological resilience can be understood as a response to the rapid pace of change and severe challenges facing urban areas. This paper reports on one strand of research being carried out as part of the EU FP7 TURAS project (Transitioning to Urban Resilience and Sustainability) that aims to gain insight into the implications of social-ecological resilience thinking on urban planning practice and policy by presenting a unique, trans-disciplinary perspective that has been developed collaboratively between academic, local government and SME partners. A framework for adaptive co-management and design is introduced as a basis for the operationalisation of urban resilience, highlighting the need to actively solve problems collaboratively by exercising imagination and creativity, and presenting a new and potentially fertile source for innovation. Five experiments exploring urban planning practices relating to the framework are put forward as examples of urban resilience in practice: an online crowd-sourcing application for mapping underused spaces; an interactive timeline tool for identifying drivers of change over time; a guidance and signposting tool to help community projects overcome resource barriers; an epistemic network of citizens that exchanges knowledge and resources relating to underused spaces; and an online portal that provides visibility for community groups or projects, and facilitates horizontal networking. The paper describes each experiment, sets out the aims and theoretical contexts, records any initial findings, and reflects on the potential and limitations. Initial findings are discussed relating to the challenges of crowd-sourcing spatial or historical data, and the resource commitment required for the emerging practices. It is observed that the experiments attempt to address fundamental issues in urban planning practice and policy, and involve established and familiar activities. The paper concludes that the research provides insight into what urban resilience might mean in practice and that each experiment has the potential to make a tangible contribution to the transition to urban resilience and sustainability.     

A flood risk decision making approach for Mediterranean tree crops using GIS; climate change effects and flood-tolerant species

The aim of this study is to estimate flood risk in the Mediterranean island of Crete in Greece, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The island of Crete, covering an area of 8265 km², is one of the most intensively Mediterranean agricultural areas dominated by fruit tree crops. In this study, the factors that are directly related to the creation of a flood are combined in a GIS environment in order to identify the most prone flooding areas. These factors are: (a) the Flow accumulation (F), (b) the Rainfall intensity (R), (c) the Elevation (E), (d) the Geology (G), (e) the Land use (L), and (f) the Slope (S). The initials of these factors gave the name to the proposed method: “FREGLS”. The above factors are presented in the form of grid maps and are used in order to determine the final flood risk map. Subsequently, the flood prone fruit tree areas of Crete can be estimated by applying a methodology based on weighting coefficients. The reliability of the final flood risk map is verified using historical flooded data. Additionally, the impact of global climate change scenarios A2 and B1, on flood risk in Crete is examined. Based on the above, this study highlights the flood prone fruit tree areas in the island of Crete under current and future climate conditions. Also, flood-tolerant fruit trees which appear to be economically important for Greece are recommended, especially for the high flood risk areas of the island. The proposed methodology can be applied as a decision making tool for flood risk mitigation to any river basin where tree crops are cultivated.     

The conception of public interest in Dutch flood risk management: Untouchable or transforming?

The governance of flood risks varies considerably in different parts of the world. Obviously this is due to the nature and characteristics of flood risks, but in part governance approaches vary because of political differences in the nature of governance itself. What is ‘appropriate’ in this respect depends partly on the prevailing conceptions of the public interest in a country. By applying Alexander’s (2002) categorization of public interest to flood risk management practices in The Netherlands, we show that the strongly unitary conception of the public interest (a historic ‘flood risk safety for all’), is intertwined with a state-based, sector-based, hydro-technical governance and expertise system. Although this conception is very strong it is no longer self-evident. Because of changing conceptions of governance in general and because of the felt necessity to adapt to climate change, Dutch flood risk management is gradually changing. Increasingly, the Dutch government has to deal with more dialogical and utilitarian approaches to public interest in the governance of flood risks. The Dutch approach is rooted in community-based interests in flood protection and was centralized and rationalized during the 19th and 20th century. The current flood risk standards are based upon a coarse utilitarian benefit-cost analysis, but evolved into mostly a unitary idea of national safety materialized in law by statutory flood risk standards. The findings show that this unitary concept and status of the public interest of flood risk safety has not diminished; it must, however, increasingly take into account the importance of both processes of decision making (dialogues, deliberations) and neighboring public interests. We conclude that the Dutch conception of the public interest on flood safety is still strong but nevertheless gradually changing, not the least because of a general availability of the information and technology to calculate and differentiate risks.     

Estimating changes in flood risks and benefits of non-structural adaptation strategies - a case study from Tyrol,Austria

Flood damage has increased significantly and is expected to rise further in many parts of the world. For assessing potential changes in flood risk, this paper presents an integrated model chain quantifying flood hazards and losses while considering climate and land use changes. In the case study region, risk estimates for the present and the near future illustrate that changes in flood risk by 2030 are relatively low compared to historic periods. While the impact of climate change on the flood hazard and risk by 2030 is slight or negligible, strong urbanisation associated with economic growth contributes to a remarkable increase in flood risk. Therefore, it is recommended to frequently consider land use scenarios and economic developments when assessing future flood risks. Further, an adapted and sustainable risk management is necessary to encounter rising flood losses, in which non-structural measures are becoming more and more important. The case study demonstrates that adaptation by non-structural measures such as stricter land use regulations or enhancement of private precaution is capable of reducing flood risk by around 30 %. Ignoring flood risks, in contrast, always leads to further increasing losses—with our assumptions by 17 %. These findings underline that private precaution and land use regulation could be taken into account as low cost adaptation strategies to global climate change in many flood prone areas. Since such measures reduce flood risk regardless of climate or land use changes, they can also be recommended as no-regret measures.     

Resilience in practice: Five principles to enable societies to cope with extreme weather events

The concept of resilience is used by many in different ways: as a scientific concept, as a guiding principle, as inspirational ‘buzzword’, or as a means to become more sustainable. Next to the academic debate on meaning and notions of resilience, the concept has been widely adopted and interpreted in policy contexts, particularly related to climate change and extreme weather events. In addition to having a positive connotation, resilience may cover aspects that are missed in common disaster risk management approaches. Although the precise definition of resilience may remain subject of discussion, the views on what is important to consider in the management of extreme weather events do not differ significantly. Therefore, this paper identifies the key implications of resilience thinking for the management of extreme weather events and translates these into five practical principles for policy making.     

基于洪水资源化的水库汛限水位调整及其风险管理

在论述“洪水资源化”概念和调整水库汛限水位所涉及的影响因素的基础上, 构建了汛限水位 调整后的风险和效益评价指标体系及其估算方法, 以及论述了水库汛限水位调整的风险管理对策。 以五强溪大型水库为例, 综合评价了在不同汛限水位方案下所带来的风险及效益, 并引入优选模糊 理论方法来合理调整汛限水位。通过综合分析认为, 五强溪水库在主汛期将汛限水位从现行的 98.00m 提高到100.00m 的方案是可行的, 它在防洪风险增加不多的情况下, 可将有可能被排泄的 1.85×108m3 洪水转化为有效利用的水资源, 显然, 将大型水库提高汛限水位超蓄洪水是实现洪水资 源化的重要手段, 但必须是在加强水库实时调度风险管理的提前下实施。     

A systemic approach to managing multiple perspectives and stakeholding in water catchments: some findings from three UK case studies

As the EU-wide Water Framework Directive enters into public policy, the UK faces significant challenges in managing its water resources, including exceptional flood and drought events in recent years. New legislation is resurfacing existing conflicts and generating new debates among multiple stakeholders about managing water catchments. Existing policies and practices are under strain as a result. This paper reports how the SLIM project in the UK researched the role of a systemic approach to managing multiple perspectives and stakeholding in water catchments and the new challenges this presents to existing forms of knowledge and practice. The authors apply the conceptual tradition of systems thinking and practice, and the methodological approach of systemic co-researching inquiry to empirical studies in the Tweed, the Ythan, and the Eye Brook catchments, in the context of a review of policy and practice in the UK. The extent to which systems approaches to multiple stakeholding can lead to social learning for concerted action is considered. An assessment of the implications of the research findings for policies and practices in managing water catchments concludes the article.     

Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach

Worldwide, an increase in flood damage is observed. Governments are looking for effective ways to protect lives, buildings, and infrastructure. At the same time, a large investment gap seems to exist—a big difference between what should necessarily be done to curb the increase in damage and what is actually being done. Decision-makers involved in climate adaptation are facing fundamental (so-called deep) uncertainties. In the course of time, the scientific community has developed a wide range of different approaches for dealing with these uncertainties. One of these approaches, adaptation pathways, is gaining traction as a way of framing and informing climate adaptation. But research shows that “very little work has been done to evaluate the current use of adaptation pathways and its utility to practitioners and decision makers” (Lin et al. 2017, p. 387). With this paper, the authors, as action researchers and practitioners involved in two of the world’s largest real-life applications of this approach in flood risk management, aim to contribute to filling in that gap. Analysis of the experience in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands in long-term planning in flood risk management shows that the adaptation pathways approach is effective in keeping decision processes going forward, to the final approval of a long-term plan, and helps increase awareness about uncertainties. It contributes to political support for keeping long-term options open and motivates decision-makers to modify their plans to better accommodate future conditions. When it comes to implementing the plans, there are still some major challenges, yet to be addressed, amongst others: the timely detection of tipping points in situations with large natural variability, the inclusion of measures that prepare for a switch to transformational strategies, and the retention of commitment of regional and local authorities, non government organizations, and the private sector, to climate adaptation as national policies move from blueprint planning to adaptive plans. In delivering this feedback, the authors hope to motivate the scientific community to take on these challenges.     

Policy implementation of catchment-scale flood risk management: Learning from Scotland and England

Recent years have seen a gradual adoption of a “catchment-scale” approach to flood risk management into European policy-making which, amongst other objectives, promotes rural land use change to reduce flood risk. While some exploratory studies of land managers’ attitudes exist, research is lacking on how public policies can be mobilised locally to implement these ideas. Two local initiatives were analysed in the transboundary River Tweed basin in Scotland and England during which public authorities negotiated with land managers. A combination of documents (N = 21) and interviews (N = 63) forms the basis of the data analysed. The results showed that implementation is highly dependent on the local policy framework, the activities of implementers, and land managers’ responses to (combination of) policy instruments. Several factors were identified influencing implementation such as devolution arrangements (i.e. from national to regional/local), the level of local interest on flood risk, local attitudes to compromise and collaboration, available policy instruments, and the existence of participatory catchment organisations. With limited scope for stand-alone regulatory action or funding in the short term, synergies and measures promoting co-benefits in flood risk management should be further sought in the Water Framework Directive River Basin Management Plans, as well as in cross-compliance and the new agri-environment-climate strategies of the common agricultural policy.     

基于GIS的长沙市洪涝灾害风险动态评估

运用GIS技术的空间分析与建模功能构建洪涝灾害风险评估模型,以长沙市地理基础数据、遥感数据、气象水文、社会统计数据为基础,从洪涝灾害的危险性、暴露性、敏感性三个角度出发,对长沙市洪灾风险进行动态评价.结果表明：与1994年相比,2010年长沙市洪灾敏感性有所增加,暴露性上升,洪灾风险增大;从空间分布上看,长沙市区及望城区由于地势平坦,湘江干流贯穿其中,加之经济发达,因而洪灾风险较高;而西部的宁乡县和东部的浏阳市洪灾风险较低;提出了有针对性的防洪措施.该评价结果与实际情况相符,可为洪灾风险管理与决策提供科学依据.     

Combining hazard,exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management

Flood risk assessments provide inputs for the evaluation of flood risk management (FRM) strategies. Traditionally, such risk assessments provide estimates of loss of life and economic damage. However, the effect of policy measures aimed at reducing risk also depends on the capacity of households to adapt and respond to floods, which in turn largely depends on their social vulnerability. This study shows how a joint assessment of hazard, exposure and social vulnerability provides valuable information for the evaluation of FRM strategies. The adopted methodology uses data on hazard and exposure combined with a social vulnerability index. The relevance of this state-of-the-art approach taken is exemplified in a case-study of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. The results show that not only a substantial share of the population can be defined as socially vulnerable, but also that the population is very heterogeneous, which is often ignored in traditional flood risk management studies. It is concluded that FRM measures, such as individual mitigation, evacuation or flood insurance coverage should not be applied homogenously across large areas, but instead should be tailored to local characteristics based on the socioeconomic characteristics of individual households and neighborhoods.     

Application of real option analysis for planning under climate change uncertainty: a case study for evaluation of flood mitigation plans in Korea

With concerns regarding global climate change increasing, recent studies on adapting to nonstationary climate change recommended a different planning strategy that could spread risks. Uncertainty in global climate change should be considered in any decision-making processes for flood mitigation strategies, especially in areas within a monsoon climate regime. This study applied a novel planning method called real option analysis (ROA) to an important water resources planning practice in Korea. The proposed method can easily be applied to other watersheds that are threatened by flood risk under climate change. ROA offers flexibility for decision-makers to reflect uncertainty at every stage during the project planning period. We successfully implemented ROA using a binomial tree model, including two real options—delay and abandon—to evaluate flood mitigation alternatives for the Yeongsan River Basin in Korea. The priority ranking of the four alternatives between the traditional discount cash flow (DCF) and ROA remained the same; however, two alternatives that were assessed as economically infeasible using DCF, were economically feasible using ROA. The binomial decision trees generated in this study are expected to be informative for decision-makers to conceptualize their adaptive planning procedure.