QUANTIFYING MODEL OUTPUT UNCERTAINTY DUE TO SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL1

Traditionally in the application of hydrologic/water quality (H/WQ) models, rainfall is assumed to be spatially homogeneous and is considered not to contribute to output uncertainty. The objective of this study was to assess the uncertainty induced in model outputs solely due to rainfall spatial variability. The study was conducted using the AGNPS model and the rainfall pattern captured by a network of 17 rain gauges. For each rainfall event, the model was run using the rainfall captured by each rain gauge, one at a time, under the assumption of rainfall spatial homogeneity. A large uncertainty in the modeled outputs resulted from the rainfall spatial variability. The uncertainty in the modeled outputs exceeded the input rainfall uncertainty. Results of this study indicate that spatial variability of rainfall should be captured and used in H/WQ models in order to accurately assess the release and transport of pollutants. A large uncertainty in the model outputs can be expected if this rainfall property is not taken into account.     

VERIFICATION OF THE RHEA-OROGRAPHIC-PRECIPITATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Observed April 1 snowpack accumulations within and near the Gunnison River basin in southwestern Colorado are compared with simulations from the Rhea-orographic-precipitation model to determine if the model simulates reliable magnitudes and temporal and spatial variability in winter precipitation for the basin. Twenty simulations of the Rhea model were performed using‘optimal’parameter sets determined for 10-kilometer (km) grids (10-km by 10-km grid cells) through stochastic calibration. Comparisons of Rhea-model simulations of winter precipitation with April 1 snowpack accumulations at 32 snowcourse stations were performed for the years 1972–1990. For most stations and most years the Rhea model reliably simulates the temporal and spatial variability in April 1 snowpack accumulations. However, in general, the Rhea-model underestimates April 1 snowpack accumulations in the Gunnison River basin area, and the underestimation is greatest for locations that receive the largest amount of snow. A significant portion of the error in Rhea-model simulations is due to the calibration of the Rhea model using gauge-catch precipitation measurements which can be as much as 50 percent below actual snowfall accumulations. Additional error in the Rhea-model simulations is a result of the comparison of gridded precipitation values to observed values measured at points.     

Modeling Streams and Hydrogeomorphic Attributes in Oregon From Digital and Field Data1

Abstract: Managers, regulators, and researchers of aquatic ecosystems are increasingly pressed to consider large areas. However, accurate stream maps with geo‐referenced attributes are uncommon over relevant spatial extents. Field inventories provide high‐quality data, particularly for habitat characteristics at fine spatial resolutions (e.g., large wood), but are costly and so cover relatively small areas. Recent availability of regional digital data and Geographic Information Systems software has advanced capabilities to delineate stream networks and estimate coarse‐resolution hydrogeomorphic attributes (e.g., gradient). A spatially comprehensive coverage results, but types of modeled outputs may be limited and their accuracy is typically unknown. Capitalizing on strengths in both field and regional digital data, we modeled a synthetic stream network and a variety of hydrogeomorphic attributes for the Oregon Coastal Province. The synthetic network, encompassing 96,000 km of stream, was derived from digital elevation data. We used high‐resolution but spatially restricted data from field inventories and streamflow gauges to evaluate, calibrate, and interpret hydrogeomorphic attributes modeled from digital elevation and precipitation data. The attributes we chose to model (drainage area, mean annual precipitation, mean annual flow, probability of perennial flow, channel gradient, active‐channel width and depth, valley‐floor width, valley‐width index, and valley constraint) have demonstrated value for stream research and management. For most of these attributes, field‐measured, and modeled values were highly correlated, yielding confidence in the modeled outputs. The modeled stream network and attributes have been used for a variety of purposes, including mapping riparian areas, identifying headwater streams likely to transport debris flows, and characterizing the potential of streams to provide high‐quality habitat for salmonids. Our framework and models can be adapted and applied to areas where the necessary field and digital data exist or can be obtained.     

Can Desalination and Clean Energy Combined Help to Alleviate Global Water Scarcity?

The major present hindrance in using desalination to help alleviate global water scarcity is the cost of this technology, which, in turn is due to energy cost involved. This study examines historical trends in desalination and breaks up the cost of desalination into energy based and nonenergy based. It then develops the learning curves (relationship between cumulative production and market price) for desalination. Assuming that the photovoltaic (PV) technology will be the dominant form of energy used in the desalination process, the existing PV learning curve and desalination learning curve are combined to explore the viability of large‐scale adoption of desalination in the future. The world has been divided into seven regions and it is assumed that water demand from desalinated water will be met only within the 100‐km coastal belt. It is shown that, in most of the regions, other than sub‐Saharan Africa, Central America, and South Asia (where water tariffs are low), the desalination (without considering energy) becomes viable by 2040. For PV technology, less than 1 million MW per annum growth is required till 2050 to make it affordable. Globally, desalination with renewable energy can become a viable option to replace domestic and industrial water demand in the 100‐km coastal belt by 2050.     

Temporal variability in physical speciation of metals during a winter rain-on-snow event

Particulate matter in urban rivers transports a significant fraction of pollutants, changes rapidly during storm events, and is difficult to characterize. In this study, the physical speciation of trace metals and organic C in an urban river and upstream headwaters site in Torrington, CT, were measured during a winter rain-on-snow event. In addition, a selective fractionation scheme, using membrane and tangential-flow ultrafiltration methods to separate suspended particulate matter into sand, silt, clay, and colloid fractions, was evaluated based on the appropriateness of the chosen size categories. During peak runoff at the urban river site, total-recoverable concentrations of the metals Cu and Pb increased 6- and 13-fold to 16.9 and 9.5 microg L(-1), respectively, compared with baseflow concentrations. Concentrations of Cu and Pb reached only 0.9 and 0.86 microg L(-1) at the headwaters site. For the measured storm event, the majority of metals were transported by the urban river in association with coarse silt (20-80 microm particle diam.) during peak runoff. During peak runoff at the urban site, organic C associated with the large colloid fraction (0.1-1.0 microm) increased from 5% (at baseflow) to 54% of the total C in transport, whereas dissolved organic C and that associated with smaller colloids decreased from 91.5% (at baseflow) to 41% of the total. Other elements that were monitored as part of the study were Na, K, Ca, Mg, Fe, Mn, Al, Cd, Cl-, NO3(-), and SO4(2-). The chosen fractionation scheme was useful to characterize pollutant transport during this event, but further testing should be undertaken to determine the most appropriate size range categories, and to ensure that the sizes measured are comparable to those used in other studies.     

OPTIMIZATION OF INTERMITTENT PUMPING SCHEDULES FOR AQUIFER REMEDIATION USING A GENETIC ALGORITHM1

ABSTRACT: Using a genetic algorithm (GA), optimal intermittent pumping schedules were established to simulate pump‐and‐treat remediation of a contaminated aquifer with known hydraulic limitations and a water miscible contaminant, located within the Duke Forest in Durham, North Carolina. The objectives of the optimization model were to minimize total costs, minimize health risks, and maximize the amount of contaminant removed from the aquifer. Stochastic ground water and contaminant transport models were required to provide estimates of contaminant concentrations at pumping wells. Optimization model simulations defined a tradeoff curve between the pumping cost and the amount of contaminant extracted from the aquifer. For this specific aquifer/miscible contaminant combination, the model simulations indicated that pump‐and‐treat remediation using intermittent pumping schedules for each pumping well produced significant reductions in predicted contaminant concentrations and associated health risks at a reasonable cost, after a remediation time of two years.     

MODIFICATION OF NEILL'S EQUATION FOR STORM‐TIDE DESIGN FLOW ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Design of bridges spanning tidal estuaries or bays requires an estimate of peak tidal flow. One common approach to estimating these flows (Neill's method) uses a first‐order approximation of uniform water surface rise in the water body. For larger water bodies, the assumptions of this method are decreasingly valid. This study develops a simple modification that accounts for the spatial variability in the response of tidal waterways to storm surge flows. The peak tidal flow predicted by Neill's equation is compared to the peak flow determined by numerical simulation of estuaries with simple geometries, ranging from 1 to 25 km in length, using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers one‐dimensional unsteady flow model, UNET. Results indicate that, under certain conditions, it may be appropriate to apply a correction factor to the peak discharge and peak velocity predicted by Neill's method. An algorithm, developed by nonlinear regression, is presented for computing correction factors based on estuary length, shape, mean depth, and storm‐tide characteristics. The results should permit the design of more reliable, cost‐effective structures by providing more realistic estimates of the potential for bridge scour in tidal waterways, especially when a full solution of the unsteady flow equations is impractical.     

OPTIMAL ESTIMATION OF CONTAMINANT TRANSPORT IN GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: Finite element and finite difference representations of the convective-dispersive equation have been widely used in determining contaminant transport in ground water. Due to inherent uncertainties of the transport process, those representations are inexact and contain errors. Errors in field measurements are unavoidable. By combining a numerical model, a measurement equation, and the Kalman filter, optimal estimates of the state variable (contaminant concentration) can be obtained. This paper describes the algorithm and gives a numerical example of contaminant transport in a two-dimensional ground water flow. The results show significant improvement in the estimated concentration distribution by using the filtering technique.     

Assessment of Endocrine‐Disrupting Chemicals Attenuation in a Coastal Plain Stream Prior to Wastewater Treatment Plant Closure

The U.S. Geological Survey is conducting a combined pre/post‐closure assessment at a long‐term wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) site at Fort Gordon near Augusta, Georgia. Here, we assess select endocrine‐active chemicals and benthic macroinvertebrate community structure prior to closure of the WWTP. Substantial downstream transport and limited instream attenuation of endocrine‐disrupting chemicals (EDCs) was observed in Spirit Creek over a 2.2‐km stream segment downstream of the WWTP outfall. A modest decline (less than 20% in all cases) in surface water detections was observed with increasing distance downstream of the WWTP and attributed to partitioning to the sediment. Estrogens detected in surface water in this study included estrone (E1), 17β‐estradiol (E2), and estriol (E3). The 5 ng/l and higher mean estrogen concentrations observed in downstream locations indicated that the potential for endocrine disruption was substantial. Concentrations of alkylphenol ethoxylate (APE) metabolite EDCs also remained statistically elevated above levels observed at the upstream control site. Wastewater‐derived pharmaceutical and APE metabolites were detected in the outflow of Spirit Lake, indicating the potential for EDC transport to aquatic ecosystems downstream of Fort Gordon. The results indicate substantial EDC occurrence, downstream transport, and persistence under continuous supply conditions and provide a baseline for a rare evaluation of ecosystem response to WWTP closure.     

Modeling Effects of Natural Flow Restoration on Metals Fate and Transport in a Mountain Stream Impacted by Mine Waste1

Abstract: The effects of natural flow restoration on metals fate and transport in the Upper Tenmile Creek Watershed, Montana, were modeled using the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). This 50‐km² watershed has over 150 historic abandoned mines, including mine waste rock and tailings, as well as adits discharging acid mine drainage, and is the primary drinking water supply for the City of Helena. Water supply diversions almost completely dewater some stream reaches during summer low flows, but the city is considering a new drinking water source and restoration of natural flows in Tenmile Creek as part of acid mine drainage remediation and broader aquatic habitat restoration. One dimensional steady‐state simulation of total recoverable cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc in the mainstem was performed, and the model was calibrated to June 2000 base‐flow data. Representative low‐flows in August and high‐flow snowmelt conditions in June were modeled using mean monthly natural flow estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey and representative USEPA metals concentrations data. The modeling showed that total recoverable metals concentrations, and especially loads, can vary significantly among input locations and over time in the watershed. Some data gaps limit evaluation of variability and increase uncertainty in several locations. Model results indicated, however, that natural low‐ and high‐flow restoration by itself can reduce some metals concentrations in the mainstem compared to June 2000 values, which were influenced by significant water diversion. Some values (such as Zn) may still exceed standards during natural August low flow due to the remaining high concentrations and loads in the primary inputs to the mainstem. Others (such as Cu) can increase during high flow due to remaining mine waste sources and loading of particulate Cu associated with erosion and transport of solids. Greater than 50% reduction in concentrations and loads from some of the main tributaries may be necessary to meet all standards, especially for potential particulate loads with higher flows in June.     

ACCURACY AND CONSISTENCY OF WATER‐CURRENT MIETERS1

ABSTRACT: The measurement of discharge in natural streams requires hydrographers to use accurate meters that have consistent performance among meters of the same model. This paper presents the results of an investigation into the accuracy and consistency of four models of current meters‐Price Type‐AA, Price Pygmy, Marsh McBirney 2000, and Swoffer 2100. Test results for six meters of each model are presented. Variation of meter performance within a model is used as an indicator of consistency, and percent velocity error that is computed from a measured reference velocity is used as an indicator of meter accuracy. Velocities measured by each meter are also compared to the manufacturer's published or advertised accuracy limits. The investigation found the Price models to be more accurate and consistent than the other models. The Price models met their respective accuracy limits over the range of test velocities better than the other models. The Marsh McBirney model usually measured within its accuracy specification. The Swoffer meters did not meet the stringent Swoffer accuracy limits for all the velocities tested. The Swoffer model had accuracies similar to the Price Type‐AA model when individual meter rating equations were computed and used. Every model tested had meters that did not meet manufacturer accuracy limits. Because current meters are not consistently accurate within a model, hydrographers should periodically check meters against a velocity standard.     

THE EFFECTS OF DIURNAL MIXING ON THERMAL STRATIFICATION OF STATIC IMPOUNDMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The time variation in the temperature distribution of a static water impoundment is predicted. The body of water is modeled as a discrete number of horizontally isothermal layers and the energy equation is solved using an implicit numerical scheme. Vertical energy transport mechanisms included are solar absorption, molecular diffusion, and convective mixing due to nocturnal turnover. The latter mechanism, called diurnal mixing, is found to have a profound effect on the stratification, particularly in the eplimnion patterns for a typical deep static impoundment.     

Wastewater reuse and predicted ecological risk posed by contaminant mixtures in Potomac River watershed streams

A wastewater model was applied to the Potomac River watershed to provide (i) a means to identify streams with a high likelihood of carrying elevated effluent-derived contaminants and (ii) risk assessments to aquatic life and drinking water. The model linked effluent discharges along stream networks, accumulated wastewater, and predicted contaminant loads of municipal wastewater constituents while accounting for instream dilution and attenuation. Simulations using 2016 data suggested that nearly 30% (8281 km) of streams were wastewater impacted. Low- to medium-order streams had the largest range of accumulated wastewater (ACCWW%) values. ACCWW% exceeded a 1% threshold at >39% of drinking-water intakes (varied by temporal condition). Risk assessments of municipal wastewater-contaminant mixtures indicated that 22% (1479 km) of streams impacted by municipal wastewater (5.5% of all reaches modeled) may pose high risk to aquatic organisms under mean-annual conditions, with fish more susceptible to chronic-exposure effects relative to other taxa. Risk varied temporally and by stream order, with the greatest risk occurring in the summer in small streams. These findings suggest that wastewater may be an important factor contributing to environmental degradation in the Potomac River watershed.     

POTENTIAL PHOSPHORUS LOAD REDUCTIONS UNDER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGULATORY PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: Nutrient loading from beef pastures located within the northern Lake Okeechobee watershed in Florida, has been identified as a source of phosphorus contributing to the accelerated eutrophication of the lake. Since 1989 within the watershed, 557 agricultural drainage sites, mainly beef pasture, have been monitored for compliance under a regulatory program. Of those sites, 154 were actively monitored for phosphorus concentrations from October 1, 1998, to September 30, 1999. Of these 154 sites, 77 were considered to be out of compliance (OOC). An OOC site is defined as having runoff with a 12‐month average phosphorus concentration exceeding the permitted discharge limit. The average annual phosphorous load from the 77 OOC sites for an eight‐year study period from October 1, 1991, to September 30, 1999, was estimated using measured concentration values and simulated runoff obtained from an agricultural nonpoint source pollution model, CREAMS‐WT. The 77 OOC sites produced an estimated average annual 46 metric tonnes of phosphorus load, of which an estimated 22 tonnes of phosphorus reached Lake Okeechobee on an average annual basis. The remaining estimated average annual 24 tonnes of phosphorus load was retained by streams and wetlands in the discharge transport system between the sites and the lake. The estimated average annual load reaching Lake Okeechobee from the OOC sites represented 11 percent of the phosphorus load above a five‐year average annual target load for the lake. However, the OOC site drainage areas represented only 3 percent of the northern watershed that drains into the lake. Of the 77 OOC sites, 12 sites had an average annual phosphorus loading rate equal to or greater than 3.0 kg/ha and were placed on the priority list for the Critical Restoration Project in the Lake Okeechobee watershed. To estimate the possible phosphorus load reductions from the 77 sites, two scenarios were modeled. The first scenario reduced phosphorus concentrations in runoff to the permitted discharge limits under the Lake Okeechobee regulatory program. The second scenario changed current land uses to native rangeland with an estimated annual offsite total phosphorus areal loading rate of 0.114 kg/ha. These two scenarios are hypothetical with assumed concentration values and loading rate. Model results showed that the first management scenario reduced the average annual phosphorus load to the lake by an estimated 15 tonnes. The second scenario reduced the average annual phosphorus load to the lake by an estimated 21 tonnes.     

CENTRIFUGE MODELING OF ONE-DIMENSIONAL SUBSURFACE CONTAMINATION1

ABSTRACT: One-dimensional contaminant transport through a saturated soil is modeled using a 1.2-m radius geotechnical centrifuge. Small-scale physical modeling in the centrifuge is achieved in relatively short time, at stress distributions that are similar to those experienced in the prototype (actual site). A 0.05 mol/l of sodium chloride solution is used as a contaminant and conductivity cells measure the concentration of the contaminant throughout the porous medium. Scaling analysis for centrifuge modeling and 1-g modeling are briefly discussed and it is concluded that centrifuge modeling simulates the effect of molecular diffusion; however, scaling of the effect of mechanical dispersion may be violated in the centrifuge if the interstitial fluid velocity is high. Centrifuge test results show good agreement with the predicted relationship between the coefficient of hydrodynamic dispersion and the Peclet number using column tests. Centrifuge modeling can be used as a complement of numerical modeling although the effect of mechanical dispersion may be overestimated in the former.     

THE TWO‐DIMENSIONAL UPLAND EROSION MODEL CASC2D‐SED1

ABSTRACT: The two‐dimensional soil erosion model CASC2D‐SED simulates the dynamics of upland erosion during single rainstorms. The model is based on the raster‐based surface runoff calculations from CASC2D. Rainfall precipitation is distributed in time and space. Infiltration is calculated from the Green‐Ampt equations. Surface runoff is calculated from the diffusive wave approximation to the Saint‐Venant equations in two‐dimensions. Watershed data bases in raster Geographical Information System (GIS) provide information on the soil type, size fractions, soil erodibility, cropping management, and conservation practice factors for soil erosion calculations. Upland sediment transport is calculated for the size fractions (sand, silt, and clay), and the model displays the sediment flux, the amount of suspended sediment, and the net erosion and deposition using color graphics. The model has been tested on Goodwin Creek, Mississippi. The peak discharge and time to peak are within ± 20 percent and sediment transport rates within ?50 percent to 200 percent.     

An Application and Evaluation of the CAL3QHC Model for Predicting Carbon Monoxide Concentrations from Motor Vehicles Near a Roadway Intersection in Muscat,Oman

The CAL3QHC model was used to predict carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations from motor vehicles at an existing urban intersection (Star Cinema in Muscat area, Oman). The CO concentrations predicted from the model were compared with those measured in the field. Predicted average CO concentrations were found to compare favorably with measured values obtained at all eight receptors considered within the modeled intersection. In general, the comparison indicates good agreement with some underprediction for CO. For receptor 6, the model overpredicts the average CO concentration. This overprediction is associated with the presence of trees and green area in the location of receptor 6. In general, the measurements and the model results indicated that the highest CO concentrations were found to occur close to the intersection and, hence, a decrease in the concentration levels was seen as the distance from the road increased. The results indicated that the levels of CO were well below the ambient air quality standard and that probably no health risk was present in areas adjacent to the star cinema intersection. However, the predicted worst-case 1-h CO concentrations assuming inversion atmospheric stability conditions (class F) and wind speed of 1 m/s indicated that the levels of CO were close to or higher than the Omans National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) value of 35 ppm at all receptors considered. The results of this study are useful in transport development and traffic management planning.Published online.     

THE IMPACT OF RUNOFF GENERATION MECHANISMS ON THE LOCATION OF CRITICAL SOURCE AREAS1

ABSTRACT: Identifying phosphorus (P) source areas and transport pathways is a key step in decreasing P loading to natural water systems. This study compared the effects of two modeled runoff generation processes ‐ saturation excess and infiltration excess ‐ on total phosphorus (TP) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations in 10 catchment streams of a Catskill mountain watershed in southeastern New York. The spatial distribution of runoff from forested land and agricultural land was generated for both runoff processes; results of both distributions were consistent with Soil Conservation Service‐Curve Number (SCS‐CN) theory. These spatial runoff distributions were then used to simulate stream concentrations of TP and SRP through a simple equation derived from an observed relation between P concentration and land use; empirical results indicate that TP and SRP concentrations increased with increasing percentage of agricultural land. Simulated TP and SRP stream concentrations predicted for the 10 catchments were strongly affected by the assumed runoff mechanism. The modeled TP and SRP concentrations produced by saturation excess distribution averaged 31 percent higher and 42 percent higher, respectively, than those produced by the infiltration excess distribution. Misrepresenting the primary runoff mechanism could not only produce erroneous concentrations, it could fail to correctly locate critical source areas for implementation of best management practices. Thus, identification of the primary runoff mechanism is critical in selection of appropriate models in the mitigation of nonpoint source pollution. Correct representation of runoff processes is also critical in the future development of biogeochemical transport models, especially those that address nutrient fluxes.     

Prediction of the Fate and Transport Processes of Atrazine in a Reservoir

The fate and transport processes of a toxic chemical such as atrazine, an herbicide, in a reservoir are significantly influenced by hydrodynamic regimes of the reservoir. The two-dimensional (2D) laterally-integrated hydrodynamics and mass transport model, CE-QUAL-W2, was enhanced by incorporating a submodel for toxic contaminants and applied to Saylorville Reservoir, Iowa. The submodel describes the physical, chemical, and biological processes and predicts unsteady vertical and longitudinal distributions of a toxic chemical. The simulation results from the enhanced 2D reservoir model were validated by measured temperatures and atrazine concentrations in the reservoir. Although a strong thermal stratification was not identified from both observed and predicted water temperatures, the spatial variation of atrazine concentrations was largely affected by seasonal flow circulation patterns in the reservoir. In particular, the results showed the effect of flow circulation on spatial distribution of atrazine during summer months as the river flow formed an underflow within the reservoir and resulted in greater concentrations near the surface of the reservoir. Atrazine concentrations in the reservoir peaked around the end of May and early June. A good agreement between predicted and observed times and magnitudes of peak concentrations was obtained. The use of time-variable decay rates of atrazine led to more accurate prediction of atrazine concentrations, while the use of a constant half-life (60 days) over the entire period resulted in a 40% overestimation of peak concentrations. The results provide a better understanding of the fate and transport of atrazine in the reservoir and information useful in the development of reservoir operation strategies with respect to timing, amount, and depth of withdrawal.