MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUES FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Six applications of multiobjective decision making techniques for finding optimal or satisfying operating rules for reservoir systems are presented. The examples include situations with hydropower vs. water supply (for irrigation), flood control vs. low flow augmentation, selection of an operating rule, low-flow vs. reliability, and low flow and recreation vs. water quality. The techniques applied include the constraint method, compromise programming, goal programming, Tchebycheff approach (max-mm), Consensus, and ELECTRE I and II.     

WATERSHEDSS: A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR WATERSHED-SCALE NONPOINT SOURCE WATER QUALITY PROBLEMS1

ABSTRACT: A significant portion of all pollutants entering surface waters (streams, lakes, estuaries, and wetlands) derives from non-point source (NPS) pollution and, in particular, agricultural activities. The first step in restoring a water resource is to focus on the primary water quality problem in the watershed. The most appropriate NPS control measures, which include best management practices (BMPs) and landscape features, such as wetlands and riparian areas, can then be selected and positioned to minimize or mitigate the identified pollutant(s). A computer-based decision sup. port and educational software system, WATERSHEDSS (WATER, Soil, and Hydro-Environmental Decision Support System), has been developed to aid managers in defining their water quality problems and selecting appropriate NPS control measures. The three primary objectives of WATERSHEDSS are (1) to transfer water quality and land treatment information to watershed managers in order to assist them with appropriate land management/land treatment decisions; (2) to assess NPS pollution in a watershed based on user-supplied information and decisions; and (3) to evaluate, through geographical information systems-assisted modeling, the water quality effects of alternative land treatment scenarios. WATERSHEDSS is available on the World Wide Web (Web) at http://h2osparc.wq.ncsu.edu .     

GROUND WATER MONITORING NETWORK DESIGN USING MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MAKING ANT) GEOSTATISTICS1

ABSTRACT: A multi-criteria approach to ground water quality monitoring network design is developed. The methodology combines multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) and modifications of geostatistical variance reduction analysis. Composite programming, a distance based optimization algorithm that employs a hierarchial structure, is used for the MCDM component of the design methodology. MCDM allows the consideration of numerous, often conflicting, design criteria. The methodology is useful for identifying the preferred combination of direct borehole and indirect geo-electric data. It also permits the use of prior information during initial stages of network development. Multi-variate kriging is employed to evaluate network performance using the combination of direct borehole data and indirect geoelectric data. Weighted measures of estimation variance are used as primary measures of performance, with the reduction in estimation variance being computed by the fictitious point method. Case study results demonstrate that the network design methodology can be used in both early and late phases of network development. It also leads to selection of the preferred combination and spatial orientation of direct and indirect data sources while considering cost-effectiveness and performance of alternative designs.     

MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING IN WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Recent developments in multiple objective decision making methods presented in the upcoming sequence of research papers are evaluated and compared with respect to their usefulness in addressing challenging problems in water resources management. Because many of the decision making techniques originated in the field of operational research, the historical evolution of this field is outlined and the current need for developing a wide range of techniques for employment in strategic decision making is pointed out. Informative attributes for classifying decision making techniques are given to allow a practitioner to select decision aids that can best model the key characteristics of the particular problems under study. By systematically applying a wide variety of multiple objective decision making techniques to many different kinds of water resources problems, the authors of the papers clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing these methods for assisting in making both tactical and strategic decisions in water resources management.     

GROUND WATER SOLUTE TRANSPORT,OPTIMAL REMEDIATION PLANNING,AND DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY1

ABSTRACT: A groundwater quality modeling advisory system has been developed for the U.S. Air Force for use in investigating remediation alternatives for the cleanup of subsurface contamination. The system is capable of accounting for uncertainty, not only in the prediction of solute transport but also in the optimization of the remediation scheme through chance constraints. The system guides users in the selection of appropriate transport models through an algorithm independently tested with machine learning codes. An application to Hill Air Force Base, Utah, is presented for which different pump-and-treat strategies are considered: the results are evaluated in terms of the cumulative distribution of the contaminant concentration for each case and the tradeoff relationship between the cost of remediation and the probability that the remediation strategy exceeds an established maximum allowable contaminant concentration.     

SIMULATION AS AN AID TO DECISION MAKING IN A WATER UTILITY1

ABSTRACT. Middle and high management levels within water utilities would find their decision making activities greatly enhanced if provided with a set of techniques having the following characteristics: (1) the ability to procure information and knowledge about real-life systems, (2) the ability to promote analysis of the real life system and (3) the capacity to gauge the impact of decisions. A model/simulation is presented, having the capability to mime operational aspects of water supply systems. The simulation produces time series of what are considered relevant operational variables. These series are amenable to analysis of both static and dynamic effects of alternative policies, changing environmental conditions and varying parametric specifications. Because of its modular structure and the ad hoc programming language utilized, it offers great flexibility. The model/simulation allows extensions, deletions and modifications without consequent reformulation or extensive reprogramming. It performs a number of statistical tests useful for its own verification and validation. Also available are a suggested methodology and procedures for model use, possible difficulties with data gathering and operation, plus an idea of what cannot be done with the currently extant model version.     

A CASE STUDY OF SHALLOW FLOW PATHS IN A STEEP ZERO-ORDER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Soil water potentials, slope throughflow, runoff chemistry, and isotopic composition were monitored in a 97 m² zero-order basin within the Maimai 8 watershed on the South Island of New Zealand, for a natural rain storm and two artificial water applications. Contrary to results previously reported for other portions of the Maimai catchment, much of the runoff occurred as a shallow subsurface organic layer flow. For the 47 mm natural rain event, pre-storm soil matric potential ranged from ?60 to ?150 cm H₂O. No saturation was produced within the profile, and the majority of storm runoff emanated from flow within the organic horizon perched on the mineral soil surface. Hillslope applications corroborated this interpretation by showing >90 percent new water flushing with negligible mineral soil moisture response. Although the mechanisms cited in the text are not representative of the entire catchment, the study demonstrates: (1) the value of a combined physical-chemical-isotopic approach in quantifying slope processes, and (2) the heterogeneous nature and diversity of slope runoff pathways in a relatively homogeneous catchment.     

POLLUTANT RUNOFF MODELS: SELECTION AND USE IN DECISION MAKING1

Models for pollutant runoff can be useful in water quality management planning if appropriately structured for the problem at hand. Accordingly, a “top-down” approach is proposed for the examination of extant pollutant runoff models. The approach consists of the identification of objectives and attributes that reflect the needs of planners and decision makers when these models are used for water quality management planning. Ideally, the attributes should concern the effect of model information on improved decision making and the cost of model application. Practical difficulties with the first attribute necessitates substitution of surrogate attributes reflecting model appropriateness, resolution, and uncertainty. Common pollutant runoff models, in particular export coefficients and hydrology-driven simulation models, are found to have serious weaknesses on some of the attribute scales. The “top-down” approach leads to a set of desirable pollutant runoff model attributes; alternate modeling techniques are thus examined in order to identify promising future directions for model development. The focus of this examination is phosphorus, due to its importance in the eutrophication of surface waters. Models for both sediment-attached and dissolved phosphorus are considered. Among the conclusions is the belief that the partial contributing area concept can yield an effective yet simple simulation despite the variable and complex nature of runoff.     

DEVELOPING AND IMPLEMENTING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS: A CRITIQUE AND A CHALLENGE1

ABSTRACT: Computer-based models together with their interactive interfaces are typically called decision support systems. DSSs are interactive computer-based information providers. The common objective of all DSSs, regardless of the frameworks, methodologies, or techniques used, is to provide timely information that supports human decision makers - at whatever level of decision making. The informational needs of the decision making process are the key considerations that motivate the development of DSSs. The growth of DSS development and use has been substantial. In spite of this impressive growth, computer-aided decision support systems can still be improved and made more useful to those they are intended to support. Researchers and practitioners, and indeed the computer industry, continue to identify ways of doing this. This paper reviews some of these needs and opportunities by focusing on the process of successful DDS development and implementation. The paper outlines an approach and some guidelines for developing DSSs. The approach emphasizes and requires considerable interaction between the DSS developers (analysts) and the DSS users (decision makers). This interaction and feedback is required throughout the entire DSS building, testing and evaluation (debugging), and implementation processes. The paper concludes by identifying some research needs and opportunities affecting DSS development and effective use.     

INTERACTIVE MULTIOBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EMBEDDING THE DECISION MAKER'S IMPLICIT PREFERENCE FUNCTION1

ABSTRACT: Two simple interactive techniques are developed and illustrated by means of two different real-life examples in Thailand. The first technique, Evolutionary Sequential Multiobjective Problem Solving (ESEMOPS), is an open-ended algorithm designed for planning problems with discrete alternatives. ESEMOPS helps the decision making group (DMG) develop progressively a preference function over the alternatives. The algorithm follows an evolutionary “breeding” strategy to generate a small set of good alternative solutions. This heuristic search, which does not guarantee that the adopted ‘satisfactum’ is an efficient solution leads to plausible results when applied to the planning of the Mae Khlong-Chao Phraya interbasin water transfer and irrigation system. The second algorithm, Search Beam Method (SBM) is essentially a series of one-dimensional searches for an efficient point along a “beam” passing through a goal point. Repeated search towards displayed goal points is leading to a set of quasi non-dominated solutions. SBM is illustrated by the Ubol Ratana reservoir control problem with the two conflicting objectives of energy generation and irrigation water supply. Neither ESEMOPS nor SBM require that weights, utilities, or pairwise tradeoffs be assessed. These features have been very much appreciated by a real DMG presented with the two techniques.     

A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM TO MANAGE SUMMER STREAM TEMPERATURES1

ABSTRACT: Warm summer stream temperatures due to low flows and high air temperatures are a critical water quality problem in many western United States river basins because they impact threatened fish species’habitat. One way to alleviate this problem is for local and federal organizations to purchase water rights to be used to increase flows, hence decrease temperatures. Presented is a Decision Support System (DSS) that can be used in an operations mode to effectively use water acquired to mitigate warm stream temperatures. The DSS uses a statistical model for predicting daily stream temperatures and a rule‐based module to compute reservoir releases. Water releases are calculated to meet fish habitat temperature targets based on the predicted stream temperature and a user specified confidence of the temperature predictions. Strategies that enable effective use of a limited amount of water throughout the season have also been incorporated in the DSS. The utility of the DSS is demonstrated by an example application to the Truckee River near Reno, Nevada, using hypothetical operating policy and 1988 through 1994 inflows. Results indicate that the DSS could substantially reduce the number of target temperature violations (i.e., stream temperatures exceeding the target temperature levels detrimental to fish habitat).     

DECISION SUPPORT FOR ALLOCATION OF WATERSHED POLLUTION LOAD USING GREY FUZZY MULTIOBJECTIVE PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT: This paper uses the grey fuzzy multiobjective programming to aid in decision making for the allocation of waste load in a river system under versatile uncertainties and risks. It differs from previous studies by considering a multicriteria objective function with combined grey and fuzzy messages under a cost benefit analysis framework. Such analysis technically integrates the prior information of water quality models, water quality standards, wastewater treatment costs, and potential benefits gained via in‐stream water quality improvement. While fuzzy sets are characterized based on semantic and cognitive vagueness in decision making, grey numbers can delineate measurement errors in data collection. By employing three distinct set theoretic fuzzy operators, the synergy of grey and fuzzy implications may smoothly characterize the prescribed management complexity. With the aid of genetic algorithm in the solution procedure, the modeling outputs contribute to the development of an effective waste load allocation and reduction scheme for tributaries in this subwatershed located in the lower Tseng‐Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Research findings indicate that the inclusion of three fuzzy set theoretic operators in decision analysis may delineate different tradeoffs in decision making due to varying changes, transformations, and movements of waste load in association with land use pattern within the watershed.     

A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR WATER QUALITY DATA AUGMENTATION: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Recent developments in water quality monitoring have generated interest in combining non-probability and probability data to improve water quality assessment. The Interagency Task Force on Water Quality Monitoring has taken the lead in exploring data combination possibilities. In this paper we take a developed statistical algorithm for combining the two data types and present an efficient process for implementing the desired data augmentation. In a case study simulated Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) probability data are combined with auxiliary monitoring station data. Auxiliary stations were identified on the STORET water quality database. The sampling frame is constructed using ARC/INFO and EPA's Reach File-3 (RF3) hydrography data. The procedures for locating auxiliary stations, constructing an EMAP-SWS sampling frame, simulating pollutant exposure, and combining EMAP and auxiliary stations were developed as a decision support system (DSS). In the case study with EMAP, the DSS was used to quantify the expected increases in estimate precision. The benefit of using auxiliary stations in EMAP estimates was measured as the decrease in standard error of the estimate.     

LAKE LEVEL CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT - A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The frequent high water levels in Chisago Chain of Lakes, located in east-central Minnesota, have caused extensive flood damages. Recent floods raised the concern of the local property owners and they pressured the Chisago County Board of Managers to initiate a study of alternative lake control levels. A study was carried out to identify potential flood control alternatives, screen out the most promising feasible alternatives, and recommend the most cost-effective flood control measure. Several flood control alternatives were considered - eight of them were analyzed and evaluated in detail. A statistical method was used to estimate the expected annual flood damages under existing and future conditions. The effect of all proposed control measures on the annual flood damage reductions (benefits) were determined. Detailed benefit/cost analyses were carried out to evaluate the economic feasibility of alternatives. The effect of potential flood control measures on the environment was also studied. The economic analysis of the most cost-effective alternative did not strongly support artificial lake level control, therefore the decision-making authorities were even more firm in their position to maintain the present condition and chose the Null Alternative as the most suitable alternative.     

USING FIELD SCALE MODELS TO PREDICT PEAK FLOWS ON AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS1

The goal of this study was to develop a methodology for generating storm hydrographs at a watershed scale based on daily runoff estimates from a field scale model. The methodology was evaluated on a small agricultural watershed using the ADAPT field scale process model. A comparison of observed and predicted peak flows for 11 of the largest events that occurred in a three year period gave r² values of 0.84, 0.82, and 0.81 when the watershed was subdivided into 1, 5, and 10 sub watersheds. However, all other statistical measures improved when the watershed was subdivided into at least five sub watersheds. Guidelines need to be developed on the use of the procedure but it first needs to be evaluated on several watersheds that exhibit a range in sizes, land uses, slopes, and soil properties.     

IMPACTS OF AGRICULTURAL DRAINAGE WELL CLOSURE ON CROP PRODUCTION: A WATERSHED CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Much of north-central Iowa is characterized by flat topography, shallow depressions, and poor natural surface drainage. Land drainage systems comprising of tile drains and agricultural drainage wells (ADWs) are used as outlets for subsurface drainage of cropland under corn and soybean production. Studies have shown that these drainage systems, mainly the ADWs, are potential routes for agricultural chemicals to underground aquifers. To protect the region's vital groundwater resource, researchers are evaluating alternative outlets ranging from complete closure of existing ADWs (and creation of wetlands) to continued use of ADWs and chemical management in a comprehensive policy framework. This paper presents the results of a study designed to provide government jurisdictions, farmers, and land managers information for assessing the impact of closing ADWs on crop production. The study couples a geographic information systems database for a 471-hectare watershed in Humboldt County, Iowa, with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) and an empirical crop yield loss model to predict long-term effects of complete closure of ADWs on crop production. The cropland areas inundated and the relative crop yield loss due to ADW closure are determined as a function of long-term climatic data. The results indicate that elimination of drainage outlets in the watershed could result in ponding of low-lying areas and poorly drained soils, making them unsuitable for crop production. Such wetness also decreases the efficiency of production in the no-ponding areas by isolating fields, and the crop yield loss can be reduced by an annual average of about 18 percent.     

COLLABORATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION MAKING IN OREGON WATERSHED GROUPS: PERCEPTIONS OF EFFECTIVENESS1

ABSTRACT: Collaborative watershed groups have formed at a significant rate throughout the United States in the last decade. Data on these groups, however, has been largely anecdotal and lacking in rigorous examination of the relationship between group formation, membership, process, and group effectiveness. Using a mail survey, Oregon watershed group participants were asked to identify who initiated the formation of the group, how efficiently the group formed, how the group determines membership, what decision making method the group uses, and how members perceive the group's effectiveness. Findings indicated that a majority believe that, because of their participation in a watershed group, they better understand issues in the watershed and the perspectives of others, but less than half believe that relationships with government decision makers or physical conditions in the watershed have improved. Members of citizen initiated groups rated their groups higher than government initiated groups on addressing difficult or controversial issues. Members of groups that use consensus responded most positively on whether the group gives fair consideration to dissenting opinions. Overall, groups with restricted membership systems rated themselves lowest on involving key decision making groups, timeliness in addressing issues, and overall effectiveness. These results raise concerns about this type of group membership system.     

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF EARTHEN WASTE STORAGE STRUCTURES ON WATER RESOURCES IN IOWA1

ABSTRACT: Earthen waste storage structures (EWSS) associated with large confined (concentrated) animal feeding operations (CAFOs) were evaluated for their potential to impact water resources in Iowa. A representative sample of 34 EWSS from a digital database of 439 lagoons and basins permitted between 1987 and 1994 was analyzed. Eighteen percent (6 of 34) directly overlie alluvial aquifers that are used widely for potable water supply. Ninety‐four percent (29 of 31) were constructed below the water table based on EWSS depth data. At 65 percent of EWSS (22 of 34), 50 percent or more of the manure‐spreading area (MSA) has a water‐table depth less than 1.6 m. At 74 percent of EWSS (25 of 34), 90 percent or more of the MSA contains soil with vertical K exceeding 25.4 mm/hr. Seventy‐one percent (24 of 34) occur where 10 percent or less of the MSA is frequently flooded. No significant differences were found among leakage rates due to aquifer vulnerability class or surficial material. However, at least 50 percent of EWSS (14 of 28) leaked at rates significantly greater than 1.6 mm/d under the new construction standard. The estimated 5,000 unregulated CAFOs may have a greater potential to impact water resources in Iowa.     

EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION OF MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MODELS FOR APPLICATION TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A research project was undertaken for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to determine the relative utility and effectiveness of four well-known multicriteria decision making (MCDM) models for applications in realistic water resources planning settings. A series of experiments was devised to examine the impact of rating and ranking procedures on the decision making behavior of users (e.g., planners, managers, analysts, etc.) when faced with situations involving multiple evaluation criteria and numerous alternative planning projects. The four MCDM models tested were MATS-PC, EXPERT CHOICE, ARIADNE, and ELECTRE. Two groups of analysts and decision makers were tested. One group consisted of experienced U.S. Army Corps planners, while the other was comprised of graduate students. Based on a series of nonparametric statistical tests, the results identified EXPERT CHOICE as the preferred MCDM model by both groups based largely on ease of use and understandability. ARIADNE fostered the largest degree of agreement within and among the two groups of individuals tested. The tests also lend support to the claim that rankings are not affected significantly by the choice of decision maker (i.e., who uses any of these MCDM models) or which of these four models is used.     

A MULTIOBJECTIVE MODEL FOR REGIONAL WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Linear programming is the simplest of all the optimization techniques used in regional water quality management studies; but the technique can optimize only one goal. When there are multiple goals with the same or different priorities, goal programming is a useful decisionmaking tool. This paper illustrates the application of goal programming to a regional water quality management problem where the following two goals are considered: (1) minimize the total cost of waste treatment, and (2) maintain the water quality goals (dissolved oxygen) close to the minimum level stated in the stream standards.